Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of aluminum shows a slight fluctuation, the price of alumina weakens, and the price of cast aluminum alloy follows that of electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The trend strength of aluminum is neutral (0), alumina is weakly bearish (-1), and aluminum alloy is neutral (0) [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,625, down 165 from T - 5; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,608, down 31 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts have different degrees of changes. The LME cancelled warrant ratio is 3.10%, down 0.08% from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 3,326, down 29 from T - 5. The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts also have significant changes [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,070, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased to some extent [1]. b) Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 514,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1 and up 34,000 tons from T - 5. The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 3,920.26, with a slight increase compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 3,271, up 26 from T - 5. The prices of imported alumina from different regions also show certain changes [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have different degrees of changes, and the price of Yangquan aluminum bauxite has also changed [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is -291, and the prices of related products and inventory have also changed [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,610, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. c) Comprehensive News - The Chinese government will implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, and prevent and resolve risks in key areas [3]. - The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts due to slow economic growth, and Powell has not given guidance on a September rate cut [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose 0.36% to $9,933.5/ton, while SHFE copper fell 0.16% to 79,680 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import is still slightly in the red. With the approaching August tariff deadline, the EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump's claim of a US - Japan agreement has led to market optimism. The third - round China - US consultations are set to take place in Sweden next week. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,567 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 9,972 tons. Affected by the off - season, consumption is weak, but some enterprises are stocking up in advance due to concerns about price increases. The Inner Mongolia flotation incident may cause safety - related production cuts, intensifying the shortage of concentrates. With the approaching August 1st, although there are many positive factors, uncertainties also exist, so weekly market trends should be viewed with caution. The domestic anti - involution impact on the market has eased, and its impact on copper is relatively weak but still affects market sentiment [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a weak and volatile trend. Alumina's AO2509 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, down 1.55%, with an increase in open interest. Shanghai aluminum's AL2509 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.46%, also with an increase in open interest. The aluminum alloy's AD2511 closed at 20,140 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with a decrease in open interest. The SMM alumina price rebounded, and the spot premium of aluminum ingots decreased. The processing fees of aluminum rods and some aluminum products changed. Due to the maintenance of some alumina plants, the commissioning of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the southwest, and low warehouse receipts, the supply of alumina is tight. As the amount of goods delivered to the warehouse recovers and may peak, it is difficult to short - sell under the anti - involution effect. New orders for electrolytic aluminum processing are shrinking, and inventory accumulation in the off - season has started, which forms a game with low near - month warehouse receipts. The unilateral rebound space of aluminum alloy is limited, and attention can be paid to the AL - AD spread arbitrage opportunity when the refined - scrap spread narrows [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.29% to $15,575/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.1% to 123,660 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel spread increased by 50 yuan/ton. Weekly nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices were at a three - year low, and nickel salt prices declined slightly. For stainless steel, cost support is weakening, weekly inventory has decreased, and supply in July has decreased slightly month - on - month, indicating that the supply - demand pattern may be gradually improving. The domestic weekly inventory of primary nickel has increased, and market pressure is emerging. In the short term, prices will still fluctuate, with market sentiment, overseas policies, and fundamentals in a game [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 45 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged, and the refined - scrap spread increased by 120 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free and low - oxygen copper rods remained unchanged. The weekly TC for copper smelting remained unchanged. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 9,972 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 3,094 tons. The social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 160 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China increased by 5 yuan/ton. The prices of lead concentrates and processing fees remained unchanged. LME lead inventory increased by 650 tons, SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 200 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 7,186 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of low - and high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained unchanged, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton. The processing fees of some aluminum products increased. LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,350 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,161 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 1.5 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss increased by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and imported nickel to Wuxi decreased. The prices of nickel ore, nickel - iron, and some stainless steel products remained unchanged, while the prices of some new - energy nickel products decreased. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,220 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 122 tons, and the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 230 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the social nickel inventory increased by 1,165 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 210 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.2%, and the LmeS3 price and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. The near - far month spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The prices of SMM 0 and 1 zinc increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the domestic and imported zinc spot premiums decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 dollars/ton. The prices of zinc alloys and zinc oxide increased. The weekly TC for zinc remained unchanged. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 0.5%, and the LmeS3 price decreased by 2.1%. The near - far month spread decreased by 130 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price increased by 2,600 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates increased by 1,700 yuan/ton. The domestic spot premium remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 32 dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory increased by 51 tons, LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons. The registered warehouse receipts of SHFE tin increased by 16 tons, and those of LME tin decreased by 225 tons. The active contract import loss was 0 yuan/ton, and the tariff was 3% [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of the near - far month spreads (such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [15][18][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of the copper concentrate index, copper scrap processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are provided [42][44][46]. 3.3 Non - Technical Content - **Team Introduction**: The report introduces the non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research, a senior precious metals researcher, and has rich experience. Wang Heng focuses on the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel. They have all achieved good results in research and service [49][50]

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - The contribution rates of the three industries to economic growth were 3.6% for the primary industry, 36.2% for the secondary industry, and 60.2% for the tertiary industry [2] Industry Performance - The industrial production showed a robust growth with an industrial added value increase of 6.2% year-on-year, contributing 1.9 percentage points to economic growth [3][4] - The manufacturing sector's added value grew by 6.6%, contributing 1.7 percentage points to economic growth [3] - The service sector, particularly information transmission, software, and IT services, saw significant growth with added values increasing by 11.1% and 9.6% respectively, contributing a total of 1.0 percentage point to economic growth [3] Domestic Demand - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points [5] - Investment demand showed a steady increase, with total capital formation contributing 16.8% to economic growth, adding 0.9 percentage points to GDP [5] - Net exports maintained a stable growth trend, contributing 31.2% to economic growth, which added 1.7 percentage points to GDP [5] New Economic Drivers - The digital economy is gaining momentum, with the revenue of large-scale information transmission, software, and IT service enterprises growing by 11.4% from January to May, outperforming the overall service sector by 3.3 percentage points [6] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw added value growth of 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, exceeding the overall industrial growth rates [7] - High-quality investments in equipment manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 7.5% and 8.6% respectively, indicating a focus on optimizing and upgrading industries [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, falling 0.2% to $9,643.5 per ton; SHFE copper main contract fell 0.34%. The market is worried about the intensification of trade conflicts. Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st has caused market discussions. From the price difference between US copper and LME copper, the market has priced in 25%. In the short - term, copper may still be weak, and the implementation of the 50% copper tariff will cause strong price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Guinea's implementation of the bauxite index has raised concerns about cost expansion. In the short - term, the near - month contracts will continue to be strong, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the 20,000 range. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is more obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 1.12%, and Shanghai nickel fell 1.08%. The Indonesian government will evaluate the work plans and budgets of the mining and coal industries. The cost support of stainless steel has shifted down slightly, and the overall inventory remains high. The demand for nickel sulfate in July has increased slightly month - on - month. In the short - term, it will still fluctuate, and be vigilant against overseas policy disturbances [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macroscopically, overseas focuses on tariffs, and some economies have made counter - measures. Domestically, China's June social financing and export data are positive. In terms of inventory, LME, Comex, and domestic social inventories have all increased. The demand is still weak due to the off - season. The 50% copper tariff may cause price fluctuations [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose, while Shanghai aluminum prices were weak. The implementation of the bauxite index in Guinea and the low inventory support the price. The off - season effect of aluminum alloy is obvious [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME and SHFE nickel prices fell. The Indonesian government's evaluation of the industry and the decline in nickel ore prices have an impact on the market. The cost of stainless steel has decreased, and the demand for nickel sulfate has increased slightly [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the inventory of LME, COMEX, and social inventory increased. The import loss of the active contract widened [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased, and the inventory of LME and SHFE increased [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory of alumina increased [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price and spot price decreased, and the inventory of LME, SHFE, and social inventory increased [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased slightly, and the inventory of LME increased while SHFE decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [31][33][35]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [37][39][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A master of science, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience [51]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst focusing on aluminum and silicon [50][51]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst focusing on lithium and nickel [52].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

Supply and Demand - Industrial production is slowing down, with some chemical and automotive sectors experiencing a decline in operating rates[2] - Construction activity has decreased, with cement dispatch rates and oil asphalt plant operating rates falling to historical lows[2] - Building demand is weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and construction materials lower than historical levels[3] Prices - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a decline in oil and gold prices, while copper and aluminum prices continue to rise[4] - Domestic industrial products are experiencing strong fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a rebound[4] Real Estate - New housing transactions in first-tier cities have seen an expanded year-on-year decline, with a drop of 19% compared to 2023 and 17% compared to 2024[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes have weakened, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing year-on-year declines of 9%, 19%, and a slight increase of 5% respectively compared to 2024[5] Exports - June exports are expected to show a year-on-year increase of around 2%, with early July exports projected to rise by approximately 3%[6] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of July 4[5] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 14,808 billion yuan in monetary policy[5]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional high savings rate of Chinese residents has drastically declined to a historical low of 24.3% in 2024, down from 45.7% in 2020, primarily due to soaring housing prices and their subsequent impact on household finances [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for the Decline in Savings Rate - High housing prices have led to substantial mortgage debts, with the average household debt reaching 512,000 yuan, of which over 80% is attributed to housing loans [2]. - The average monthly mortgage payment consumes 42.3% of household income, significantly exceeding the international warning line of 30%, leaving little room for savings [2][5]. - The requirement for large down payments has depleted household savings, forcing families to rely heavily on loans to purchase homes [2]. Group 2: Social Implications of Declining Savings Rate - The decline in savings poses a significant challenge to pension security, with a projected pension gap exceeding 10 trillion yuan by 2035, exacerbating the issues of inadequate social security coverage and personal savings [7]. - Consumer demand is expected to shrink as families with low savings will reduce spending during economic downturns, undermining the reliance on consumption for economic growth [7]. - The ability of households to withstand financial shocks is severely compromised, as many families allocate most of their income to mortgage repayments, leaving them vulnerable to unexpected events like job loss or illness [9]. Group 3: Recommendations for Addressing the Issue - There is an urgent need to increase the proportion of residents' income in GDP and create more job opportunities to enhance income levels and risk resilience [11]. - Exploring more reasonable housing policies to control rapid price increases is essential to alleviate the financial burden on residents [11].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy has not led to inflation despite significant increases in the money supply, indicating a disconnect between monetary expansion and consumer price increases [1][3][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, showing a lack of price increases in both consumer and producer levels [1][2]. - The broad money supply has increased from 200 trillion to 300 trillion over the past 4-5 years, indicating a substantial monetary expansion without corresponding inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Global Trade and Tariffs - The trade tensions between China and the U.S. have disrupted the traditional economic model where China produces goods and the U.S. consumes them, leading to a surplus of goods in China and downward pressure on prices [7][12][13]. - The ongoing tariff disputes are expected to maintain this pressure, preventing inflation from rising as goods remain unsold and prices continue to drop [15]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Current government subsidies and consumption incentives are merely shifting future demand forward rather than creating new demand, as consumers with existing purchasing power are not incentivized to spend more [16][20]. - The wealth distribution issue is significant, as a small number of wealthy individuals hold a disproportionate amount of wealth, limiting overall consumer spending from the broader population [22][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies should focus on catering to the wealthy consumer segment, as there is potential for new consumption patterns among affluent individuals, despite their overall limited spending capacity [27][30]. - Exploring international markets for growth opportunities is crucial, as domestic growth becomes increasingly challenging; companies are encouraged to seek expansion in developing countries [37][41]. - In a deflationary environment, maintaining cash reserves in interest-bearing assets is advisable, as money is expected to retain or increase its value over the coming years [43][44].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the need to support the expansion of high-quality service consumption supply while appropriately managing the relationship between finance and consumption [1] - It highlights that the external uncertainties continue to have a significant impact, and the domestic economy is accelerating its structural transformation and upgrading [1] - The financial system in China has significantly supported consumption, with the total consumer loan balance expected to reach 58.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, which is 7.8 times that of the end of 2010 [1] Group 2 - The article points out that the convenience of consumer financing for residents has noticeably increased due to the continuous innovation and enrichment of consumer financial products [1] - It notes that there is a clear shortage of high-quality service consumption supply in certain inclusive areas, which will be a key focus for future financial policies aimed at expanding consumption [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term due to a combination of factors such as a tight supply of raw materials, a marginal stabilization of processing fees, and a weakening in consumer resilience, along with support from a rapid decline in LME's available registered warehouse receipts and high positions in near - month contracts of SHFE copper approaching delivery [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upward potential. Although the mood of economic and trade negotiations is positive and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, the US's increase in tariffs on imported aluminum products has put pressure on demand expectations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak as downstream consumer demand continues to decline, while the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - Zinc prices may decline further. With an oversupply of zinc ore, an increase in the profit of zinc smelters, and weak terminal consumption, if there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may continue to fall [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Although there is an expectation of a looser supply, there is still significant short - term uncertainty, and downstream enterprises have a strong demand for low - price procurement [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term outlook is bearish. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [9]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs. With continuous disturbances in the ore market and an over - capacity situation, it is recommended to short at high prices lightly [13]. - The stainless - steel market will continue to face pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, weak demand, weakened cost support, and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 1.01% at $9,768/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,330 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 10,000 to 122,400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 34,000 tons. Domestic social inventory was basically flat over the weekend [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, processing fees are marginally stable, and consumer resilience has weakened [1]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at high levels, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,650 - 9,850/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 1.28% at $2,483/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.6 million to 53.0 million lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 48,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 477,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Economic and trade negotiations have a positive impact on sentiment, and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, but the US's tariff increase on imported aluminum products has affected demand expectations [3]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to have limited upward potential, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,450 - 2,500/ton [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16,764 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $9 to $1,981.5/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 41,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,900 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises are promoting sales at reduced prices, consumer demand is weak, the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to remain weak [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 2.22% at 21,795 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $34.5 to $2,655.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 2,100 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 81,700 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, the profit of zinc smelters has increased, and terminal consumption is weak [6]. - **Price Forecast**: If there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may decline further, and attention should be paid to the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin main contract closed up 0.05% at 263,740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 116 tons to 6,904 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,440 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: There may be a reduction in tin ore imports in June, and the processing fees of tin concentrates remain at a historical low. Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and the acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited [8]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000/ton [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed down 0.27% at 121,950 yuan/ton, and LME main contract closed down 0.81% at $15,365/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information provided. - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel iron prices have rebounded, intermediate products are in short supply, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen [9]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term is bearish. It is advisable to short at high prices after a rebound, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 60,537 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: Lithium salt production is at a high level, and downstream production growth is limited, resulting in high inventory pressure [11]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. Alumina - **Price**: No specific price data provided. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 90,400 tons [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: There are continuous disturbances in the ore market, and the over - capacity situation is difficult to change [13]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 2.06% to 1.1223 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.71% to 680,600 tons [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, along with weakened cost support and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. - **Price Forecast**: The market will continue to face pressure in the short - term [15].