Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided in the report - Core View: In the second half of 2025, credit bond investment should focus on three elements: the trend of funds and interest rates, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds, and the cost - effectiveness of different varieties. Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner, making the coupon value of credit bonds prominent, but the valuation volatility may increase. The overall supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, and the configuration demand may weaken from August to December. Different investment strategies are recommended for different periods and varieties [1][18] Group 2: 1. Steady Coupon as the Foundation, Grasp the Trading Rhythm 1.1. Short - to Medium - Duration Credit Spread Compression for Coupon Income, Seize Phased Opportunities in Long - Duration Bonds - H1 2025 Review: The credit bond market experienced an increase in yields and a widening of credit spreads from January to mid - March, followed by a rotation of the market to medium - to long - duration and then ultra - long - duration bonds from April to June. The main factors in the first quarter were the tight funds and the change in wealth management scale. In mid - to late March, the bond market recovered, driven by supply shrinkage and the cost - effectiveness of varieties. From April to June, the market was affected by interest rate fluctuations and the shift of the funds' central point [12][13] - June 2025 Highlights: The long - duration credit bond market was activated, mainly due to the compression of short - to medium - duration credit spreads to historical lows and the increased demand from funds, insurance, and other products. The scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 7.7 billion yuan in June, which also drove the demand for some long - duration component bonds [14][16] - H2 2025 Outlook: Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner. The supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, with the decrease in urban investment bonds offset by the increase in industrial bonds. The wealth management scale usually increases significantly in July but weakens from August to December. The rectification of wealth management's net - value smoothing methods may suppress the demand for ultra - long - duration and low - rated medium - to long - duration bonds. It is recommended to increase positions in July, take profits in August, and reduce credit bond positions from August to December, switching to inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds [18][19][21] - Variety Cost - Effectiveness: The 10Y high - grade credit bonds have relatively large potential for credit spread compression. As of June 30, the credit spreads of 10Y high - grade medium - term notes are still 8 - 11bp higher than the average. Short - to medium - duration credit spread compression may still be the dominant strategy. Bonds with a yield of 2.0% - 2.2% in the 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) categories have high allocation value. High - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered when the credit spread adjusts to the mean + 1 standard deviation [22][30][35] 1.2. Grasp the Trading Rhythm of Bank Capital Bonds 1.2.1. Difficult for Bank Capital Bond Supply to Expand in H2 2025 - H1 2025 Review: The supply of bank capital bonds increased slightly. The net financing of secondary capital bonds increased year - on - year, while that of perpetual bonds decreased. The city commercial banks increased their issuance scale, while the supply from rural commercial banks was weak [39] - H2 2025 Outlook: The demand for new capital bonds from the Big Four banks may decrease after the capital injection in June. Although small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance if the cost is low, the overall net supply is difficult to expand [40] 1.2.2. Narrower Bandwidth for Band - Trading in Bank Capital Bonds, Reverse Trading May Yield Higher Win - Rates - H1 2025 Review: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation. The yields of 1 - 5Y large - bank bonds generally increased, while those of 10Y secondary capital bonds and 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank bonds mostly decreased. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better [44] - H2 2025 Outlook: The bank capital bonds still have trading opportunities following interest - rate bonds, but the credit spread compression space is limited. Reverse trading (increasing positions during adjustments) may have a higher win - rate. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields and better holding experiences [50][51] Group 3: 2. Urban Investment Bonds: Negative Net Financing in H1, a Historical First - H1 2025 Supply: The supply of urban investment bonds shrank, with negative net financing for the first time in history. From January to June, the issuance was 2.9464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 382.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 71.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 218.5 billion yuan, mainly due to the tightening of bond - issuing policies [55] - Issuance Characteristics: The overall issuance sentiment was good, with a high proportion of over - subscribed issuances. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuances increased, while that of within - 1 - year issuances decreased. The issuance interest rates decreased overall, with greater declines in short - to medium - term bonds [55][56] - Regional Differences: The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by region. Most regions had negative net financing, mainly affected by district - level and park - level platforms. Guangdong and Shandong had relatively high positive net financing, while Jiangsu, Hunan, and Chongqing had large negative net financing [58] - Yield and Credit Spread: The yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased in H1, with high - grade long - duration and AA - low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads of all maturities and grades narrowed, with low - grade bonds performing more strongly [62][63] - Secondary Market: Since mid - March, the buying interest in the secondary market has been high, with a high proportion of TKN transactions and low - valuation transactions. There was a trend of increasing duration in transactions, and the proportion of AA(2) low - grade transactions remained high [66] Group 4: 3. Industrial Bonds: Supply Increase, Longer Durations in Both Primary and Secondary Markets - H1 2025 Supply: The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From January to June, the issuance was 3.8718 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 309.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.0788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40 billion yuan. The new regulations on science and technology innovation bonds contributed to the increase in issuance [18] Group 5: 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Rated Bonds Perform Better, Weak Trading Sentiment - H1 2025 Performance: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds and 1 - 3Y AA - perpetual bonds having significant spread compression [44] - Trading Rhythm: The trading bandwidth of large - bank long - duration capital bonds has been narrowing, making band - trading more difficult. Reverse trading may be a better strategy. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields [48][51]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the credit bond market, particularly the investment strategies for credit bonds in the second half of 2025, with an emphasis on high coupon assets due to their scarcity and the current credit cycle's limitations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **High Coupon Assets**: The scarcity of high coupon assets continues, making them a key strategy for credit bond investment. The credit cycle is unlikely to expand in the short term, and the monetary policy has shifted to support the market, leading to a downward trend in interest rates [1][2]. - **Government Bond Supply**: The supply of government bonds has been front-loaded this year compared to last year, which may affect market supply and demand dynamics. The government has relaxed constraints and increased leverage, resulting in a balanced supply curve for government bonds [8][9]. - **Credit ETF Policy**: The introduction of new policies for credit ETFs has enhanced market liquidity and increased demand for credit bond allocations. This allows various institutions to manage their investments more effectively [20][21]. - **High-Yield and City Investment Bonds**: There has been a rapid contraction in high-yield and city investment bonds, with a significant drop from 23 trillion yuan to 7 trillion yuan. Short-duration high-yield and city investment bonds are favored, and institutions are advised to adopt a moderately aggressive allocation strategy [5][23]. - **Fund Allocation Challenges**: Broad-based funds face limited allocation space, with a negative growth rate in the mid-to-short-term coupon asset sector. Institutions are encouraged to engage in diagonal trading to navigate this environment [6][22]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The credit bond market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with high coupon assets remaining scarce despite an increase in overall supply from various bond types [4][16]. - **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: The recommendation is to adopt an aggressive credit strategy, focusing on high-yield and city investment bonds, while being cautious of the overall credit risk environment [22][35]. - **Economic Environment**: The current economic conditions, interest rate trends, and credit risk environment suggest a continued preference for high coupon assets, with expectations of further compression in yield spreads [24][26]. - **Sector-Specific Insights**: The manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement, supported by policies encouraging consumption and equipment upgrades, although sustainability remains uncertain [32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategies discussed in the conference call, focusing on the credit bond market and its dynamics for the upcoming period.

截至 6 月 27 日，城投债、产业债成交期限分别加权于 2.18 年、3.39 年，均处于 2021 年 3 月以来 90%以上分位数水 平，商业银行债中 ，二级资本债、银行永续债以及一般商金债加权平均成交期限分别为 4.21 年、3.54 年、2.07 年， 其中一般商金债处于较低历史水平；从其余金融债来看，证券公司债、证券次级债、保险公司债、租赁公司债久期分 别为 1.54 年、2.28 年、3.18 年、1.45 年，其中证券公司债、证券次级债位于较低历史分位，租赁公司债位于较高历 史分位。 城投债：城投债加权平均成交期限徘徊在 2.18 年附近。其中，陕西省级城投债久期超 8 年，福建区县级城投债成交 久期缩短至 1.24 年附近。同时，广东地级市、福建地级市、河北地级市、山西省级等区域城投债久期历史分位数已 逾 90%，湖南省级、河南地级市城投债久期逼近 2021 年以来最高。 产业债：产业债加权平均成交期限较上周有所拉长，总体处于 3.39 年附近，钢铁行业成交久期缩短至 1.66 年，食品 饮料行业成交久期拉长至 2.31 年。此外，房地产行业成交久期处于较低历史分位，公用事业、交通运输、商贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy conference held by Ping An Fund highlighted the importance of embracing interest-bearing assets and participating in wave trading for the second half of 2025, while closely monitoring policy changes and economic data for effective risk management [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, but the internal momentum remains relatively weak. Real estate investment continues to drag, manufacturing investment is weak, and infrastructure investment, while gaining traction, is limited in strength. Consumer spending has rebounded with policy support, but overall growth still needs improvement [1]. - Exports are stable overall, but the growth rate is subject to significant fluctuations. Inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI are weak, reflecting insufficient total demand and low capacity utilization, resulting in limited inflationary pressure [1]. Monetary Policy and Market Environment - The central bank's goals have not yet adjusted, with maintaining growth and structural adjustments as primary objectives. Following the recent cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, the cost of funds has effectively decreased, and weak credit may lead to continued monetary easing. Additionally, a reduction in deposit rates is anticipated to maintain bank interest margins [1][2]. - The bond market is currently in a favorable environment characterized by stable but weak fundamentals and a prudent monetary policy. The stability of the credit assets in the medium to short term can provide reliable interest income and arbitrage value [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities during market adjustments to accumulate interest income. The long-term assets, while stable, are unlikely to exceed expectations, and external demand pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year due to export effects [2]. - Active participation in wave trading is recommended, as each market panic adjustment may present gaming value for investors [2].

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF market has experienced unprecedented growth, with total scale surpassing 200 billion yuan, driven by a shift in investor preference towards stable income assets and supported by favorable policies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Growth and Scale - As of June 23, the total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 204.68 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 57% of the entire bond ETF market [3]. - The initial launch of eight benchmark market-making products at the beginning of the year laid the foundation for this growth, with their combined initial issuance scale of 21.71 billion yuan now exceeding 10 billion yuan each [3]. - The Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bond ETF has seen its scale grow from 3 billion yuan at the start of the year to over 20 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall growth of credit bond ETFs [3]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy support has been a driving force for the development of credit bond ETFs, including the inclusion of these products in the bond general repurchase pledge library [3]. - The announcement of the ability to conduct general pledge-style repurchase transactions for credit bond ETFs led to a significant increase in subscription volume, with the market value of newly listed corporate bond ETFs rising from 39.1 billion yuan to 64.9 billion yuan, a 66% increase [4]. Group 3: Product Characteristics and Investor Demand - Credit bond ETFs are characterized by low volatility, low cost, and high liquidity, making them an attractive option for investors seeking stable income assets in a market characterized by "asset scarcity" [2][5]. - The passive nature of bond funds has gained favor among institutions, leading to an expansion in the scale of credit bond ETFs as they offer a combination of lower risk and relatively stable returns [6]. Group 4: Performance and Cost Advantages - Credit bond ETFs have demonstrated robust long-term return capabilities, often outperforming actively managed credit bond funds in terms of returns while exhibiting lower volatility [8][9]. - The average management fee for credit bond ETFs is approximately 0.165%, with a total cost of around 0.22%, which is lower than the average fees for actively managed credit bond funds [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The demand for stable income assets is expected to continue rising, and credit bond ETFs are likely to become a preferred choice for more investors, with potential for further growth in scale [10]. - Investors are advised to select credit bond ETFs based on their specific needs, such as liquidity management or credit risk exposure, given the current market's limited variety of these products [11].

又见久期行情极致演绎。 中债 10 年以上隐含评级 AA+全价指数近一周涨幅达到 0.9%，月内累计涨幅高达 1.5%。另一方面，交易所超长信用债 表现亦不俗，中证信用债 7 年至 10 年 AAA 等级指数周度涨幅在 0.43%。 本轮超长信用债如何被炒作？ 首先从银行间样本来观察，有四点特征：1）抢配节奏显著加快，成交收益下行幅度加大，2）20 年至 30 年活跃交易 信用债主体，银行间存量券 6 月单月平均涨幅在 2%至 3%之间，3）5 年 AA+城投债策略在最近两周持续跑赢其他组合， 4）成交量进一步印证炒作逻辑。其次，交易所抢配信用债同样强劲，值得注意的是，本轮行情有交易所超长信用债联 动银行间个券的特征。 两个市场，行情触发点不同。 截至 6 月 20 日，1 年以上信用债 63%存量规模集中在 2%以下，而 1 月初水平约在 59%，要在 2%以上做收益，势必要在 中长久期资产布局。银行间和交易所同时演绎久期行情，逻辑是否一致？一方面，从银行间 7 年以上信用债净买入交 易对手来看，保险和基金是主力。其中，基金近两周净买入规模持续增长，单周读数超过 73 亿，超过保险的边际增 量。另一方面，交 ...

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | --- | --- | | □ 顾 | 近１月 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>中长期债基>短债基金>高等级同 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | 业存单指基>现金管理 >中长期债基 > 现金管理 | | | 近一个月资金面先紧后松,中美经贸会议- 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | | 度抬升市场风险偏好,伊以冲突等事件带动 | | 债市回顾 | 调,4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡,5 避险情绪回升,资金与情绪驱动债市先跌后 | | | 月下旬经历微幅回调，6月重回偏强运行。 | | | 活长。 | | | 1、5月理财产品存量规模进一步回升。 | | 行业事件 | 2、5 月 23 日，国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构资产管理产品信息披露管理办 | | 跟踪 | 法（征求意见稿）》，允许资产管理产品不披露业绩比较基准，披露则应明确业绩比较基准 | | | 的选择原因、测算依据或计算方法等信息。 | | 展望 | 短期(1个月维度) 中期(3-6个月维度) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 0-4 government bond ETF (159816) is experiencing a stable market with a recent price of 113.75 yuan and a notable performance over the past year and three years, with increases of 2.59% and 9.19% respectively [1] - The liquidity of the 0-4 government bond ETF is active, with a turnover rate of 71.43% and a trading volume of 1.269 billion yuan, indicating strong market engagement [1] - The latest Federal Reserve decision maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, and this marks the fourth consecutive month of rate stability [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the supply of government bonds will slow down in the second half of the year, easing pressure on the bond market, while demand remains strong due to banks' investment pressures and insurance fund requirements [1] - The 0-4 government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 0-4 Year Local Government Bond Index, which consists of non-directional local government bonds with a remaining maturity of four years or less, calculated using a market capitalization weighting [2] - The 0-4 government bond ETF is positioned as the only short-duration local government bond ETF in the market, making it suitable for investors as a cash management tool [3]

固收-6 月下旬关注什么策略 20250616 摘要 央行逆回购操作稳定市场预期，资金面预计平稳进入 7 月，叠加二季度 降息 10 个基点，下半年或三季度存在进一步降息可能，以支持经济发 展。 大行二级市场买入短债或预示央行重启买债操作，可能导致利率下行， 短端国债或向 1.1%运行，10 年期国债可能突破 1.6%并向 1.5%靠拢。 存单到期量大及月底资金面波动短期内制约利率下行，但预期管理良好， 影响有限；中美谈判结果向好可能小幅提升市场风险偏好，影响幅度预 计在 2-3 个基点。 全年经济仍需宽货币支持，政府债券供给压力较大，市场对央行买债存 在期待，以应对供给压力并稳定市场预期。 未来两三个月债券利率下行概率较高，建议采取偏多思路，若预期央行 买债，3 到 5 年子弹型债券更具优势；若无此预期，则采取震荡偏强策 略，偏好票息或利差压缩。 当前市场环境下，长信用、长久期信用债持有确定性较高，可关注 8 年 期中票及 6 年和 10 年期二级资本债，选择流动性好、成交量高的个券。 活跃券赔率合理，流动性良好，可继续交易，但需关注换券预期和流动 性溢价变化；20 年和 30 年老国债赔率较好，可作为底仓 ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 临近季末关注机构行为冲击 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 继续以挖掘票息为先：固定收益市场周观 | 2025-06-09 | | --- | --- | | 察 | | | 可考虑牛陡交易：固定收益市场周观察 | 2025-06-09 | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会： | 2025-06-03 | | 固定收益市场周观察 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免 ...