内容提要 文章分析了2018年以来央行降准降息的背景特征，认为经济增长（GDP增速达标情况）、金融稳定（股市表现）对降准降息节奏影响较大，且降准作为中 长期流动性投放工具存在一定的周期性，通胀和汇率等因素对我国降准降息的影响相对有限。 2018年以来，我国进入降准降息周期，大行（中小行）的法定存款准备金率从2018年高点17%（15%）下调到目前的9%（6%），7天期逆回购利率从2018年 高点2.55%降至目前的1.4%。2025年，央行坚持"适度宽松"的货币政策基调，美联储重启降息周期，资本市场则时刻关注我国货币政策走向。本文整理近年 来央行降准降息时货币政策主要目标（经济增速、通胀、国际收支、金融稳定等）所处的状态，分析货币政策目标触发降准降息有无规律可循，为判断货币 政策走向提供参考。 一、经济增速不高于目标值可能是降息的必要条件 2018年以来7天期逆回购利率共下调10次，合计下调1.15个百分点，平均每次下调的时间间隔为7.2个月，最长间隔超过21个月，最短则连续两个月降息。 图1 GDP增速缺口和降息 数据来源：同花顺 这10次降息里，8次降息当季GDP增速低于或等于当年目标值，但有两次例外。一 ...

（原标题：GCC预测：到2027年经济增速将加快至4.3%） Arab News 11月9日报道，海湾合作委员会统计中心（GCC-Stat）报告称，2024年GCC实际GDP增 长1.9%，非油经济增长4.4%，非油经济增加值达1.29万亿美元。2024年运输与仓储、农渔业与住宿服务 为非油经济增长主导，建筑、贸易与金融也表现良好。2025年第一季度GCC合计GDP为5881亿美元， 非油占比升至73.2%。GCC-Stat预计2027年GCC经济增速将达4.3%，在旅游、物流、制造与可再生能源 项目带动下，非油经济将达5.2%。 ...

Core Insights - Thailand's economy experienced its slowest growth in four years during the third quarter, with a year-on-year GDP increase of only 1.2%, down from 2.8% in the previous quarter and below the expected 1.6% [1] - Seasonally adjusted, the economy contracted by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the first decline in nearly three years [1] - The NESDC attributes the economic slowdown to weakened tourism and manufacturing, alongside political uncertainty and border conflicts, particularly with Cambodia [1] Economic Performance - The third quarter GDP growth of 1.2% is significantly lower than the previous quarter's growth of 2.8% [1] - The contraction of 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis indicates a notable downturn in economic activity [1] Future Outlook - NESDC anticipates a recovery in the current quarter, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and tourism, which could help avoid a technical recession [1] - The chairman of NESDC highlighted that the primary issue in the third quarter was economic confidence, heavily influenced by political instability and external conflicts [1]

多空交织驱动不显，或将维持震荡运行 研究报告 橡胶周报 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡偏强，总体小幅上涨。 展望后市，宏观方面，上周三美政府结束史上最长"停摆"， 提振市场情绪；国内公布 10 月经济"成绩单"，显示经济增速 有所放缓。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端存在支撑。 10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中国累计进口 天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率较 上周均微幅上升。上周全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终端车 市方面，终端乘用车 10 月销量同环比下滑，需求端利多驱动不 足。前 9 个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量累计同比小幅增长。随着后 续天气转冷，需求存在转弱预期。库存方面，上周上期所库存 较上周小幅下降；中国天然橡胶社会库存和青岛总库存环比均 小幅回升，其中青岛一般贸易库存累库幅度较大。 总体来看， ...

Group 1 - The A500 index components showed mixed performance, with Huashang City A leading the gains at 10.15%, followed by Samsung Medical at 10.02%, and Fangda Carbon at 9.98% [1] - The A500 ETF fund's latest price is 1.18 yuan, with a turnover rate of 6.56% and a trading volume of 1.289 billion yuan [1] - The A500 ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 202 million yuan recently, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongyin Securities, the market is expected to maintain a震荡上行趋势, with a focus on preparing for year-end performance [2] - The A500 index consists of 500 securities selected from various industries, reflecting the overall performance of the most representative listed companies [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the A500 index accounted for 19.36% of the total index, including major companies like Ningde Times and Kweichow Moutai [2]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines seven major development goals for China's economic and social development, including high-quality development and technological self-reliance [2][3] - The average annual GDP growth rate is projected to be around 4.8% in real terms and at least 5% in nominal terms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1][4] - The plan emphasizes the need to maintain economic growth within a reasonable range to ensure progress towards modernization and improve living standards [2][5] Group 2 - The plan aims to achieve significant improvements in high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing the level of technological self-reliance and deepening reforms [2][6] - The potential GDP growth rate is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.3%, with optimistic scenarios suggesting it could rise to between 5.1% and 5.8% [3][4] - The plan highlights the importance of fostering new productive forces and transitioning to an innovation-driven growth model, particularly in digital and green industries [5][6] Group 3 - The plan anticipates the creation of approximately 10 trillion yuan in new market space over the next five years, driven by advancements in various sectors such as quantum technology and advanced manufacturing [6] - The emphasis on consumer spending is expected to lead to quantifiable targets for consumption promotion [6] - The plan aims to leverage China's institutional advantages, large market size, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources to achieve high-quality development [6]

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth rates of the southwestern provinces of China, including Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing, have declined significantly in recent years, with all four provinces experiencing growth rates below the national average in 2023 and 2024 [4][5][6]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the GDP of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, and Chongqing was reported at 23,518.47 billion, 17,352.04 billion, 49,322.2 billion, and 24,449.36 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.3%, 4.9%, 5.5%, and 5.3% [3][5]. - Guizhou's GDP growth has fallen below the national average, with a reported growth of 4.9% in the first three quarters, down from previous years [5][6]. - Yunnan's growth rate has also declined, with a 2023 growth of 4.4%, below the national level of 5.2% [6]. Investment Trends - Investment growth has been a significant factor in the economic slowdown of the southwestern provinces, with fixed asset investment in Guizhou showing a downward trend from 28.0% in 2013 to -5.7% in 2024 [8][9]. - Yunnan has also faced a decline in fixed asset investment, with growth rates of 7.5%, -10.6%, and -7.7% from 2022 to 2024, largely due to a drop in real estate development investment [8][9]. Industry Challenges - Traditional pillar industries in the region, such as alcohol, coal, electricity, and tobacco, are facing challenges, particularly in Guizhou where the liquor industry is undergoing significant adjustments [9]. - In Yunnan, while some traditional industries are seeing slight growth, the overall contribution to industrial growth remains low, with the tobacco industry growing by only 1.0% [9].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 4.8% compared to Q2 2025, with retail sales growth slowing to 3% and fixed asset investment entering negative growth[3] - The real estate investment growth rate has hit a historical low, with only export growth remaining relatively stable on the demand side[3] Policy Response - Since September, counter-cyclical adjustment policies have been intensified, with the effectiveness of these policies observable through recent high-frequency data[3] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report notably analyzed the current economic situation, indicating a high level of concern from decision-makers regarding short-term economic trends[3] Real Estate Market - Following the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has returned to over 2 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to around -20%[3] - Sales improvements have been noted across first, second, and third-tier cities[3] Production and Supply - The overall supply-side situation improved in October, with indicators such as operating rates, capacity utilization, and production showing month-on-month improvements[3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown improvements both year-on-year and month-on-month, leading to a notable increase in corporate profit growth rates[3] Price Trends - Recent price trends indicate a weakening, particularly in pork prices, which may slow the recovery rate of nominal GDP growth[3] - The average price of cement in East China rose to 436 RMB/ton, while in Southwest China, it fell to 493 RMB/ton, reflecting regional price disparities[3] Risks - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession impacts along with unexpected monetary policy shifts from major economies[3]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a resilient economic growth of 4.5% for the Asia-Pacific region in 2025, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the April forecast [1] - The forecast for mainland China's economic growth in 2025 is set at 4.8%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous prediction [1] Economic Trends - The report highlights a significant change in the global landscape due to extensive tariff increases by the United States in 2025, impacting trade dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - The necessity for policies that promote trade openness and foreign direct investment, along with reforms to enhance competitiveness, is emphasized as crucial for maintaining trade as an engine of economic growth [1] Investment and Capital Allocation - The report indicates that since the global financial crisis, there has been a slowdown in economic growth and an intensification of global trade fragmentation, underscoring the need for Asia-Pacific countries to strengthen domestic economic growth drivers [1] - High investment rates in the region have historically relied on a favorable financial structure for capital-intensive growth, but recent trends show increasing capital misallocation and declining investment returns [1] - Issues such as inefficient financial intermediation and rising debt rollover phenomena are contributing to these trends, necessitating policy measures to broaden financing channels for a wider range of enterprises and support timely restructuring of unsustainable debt [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economic growth rate continues to lead among major global economies, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, surpassing previous milestones of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, while per capita GDP exceeds the world average [1] Economic Performance - The expected GDP for this year is around 140 trillion yuan, indicating a strong and consistent growth trajectory [1] - China has successfully crossed significant GDP thresholds of 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan [1] - Per capita GDP in China is now above the global average, highlighting improvements in living standards [1] Global Economic Role - China remains a major source of economic growth and an important engine for the global economy [1]