Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to revise the GDP growth forecast for the second quarter, projecting it to be between 5.2% and 5.4% due to strong performance in industrial and service sectors, alongside a notable rebound in consumer spending [2][5]. Economic Overview - In May, industrial production growth was recorded at 5.8%, while the service sector's production index grew by 6.2%. Consumer spending showed a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, up from 5.1% in April [20][25]. - Investment growth has slowed, with fixed asset investment growth at 2.7% in May, down from 3.5% in April. Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12.0% [20][38]. Consumer Spending Insights - The article identifies several factors contributing to the unexpected rise in consumer spending, including accelerated "trade-in" programs, early promotional activities for the 618 shopping festival, and an increase in holidays compared to the previous year [6][10]. - Specific categories such as home appliances saw a significant increase in sales, with a 53% growth in May. Online shopping also surged, with an 8.2% increase compared to the previous year [27][28]. Consumer Potential Analysis - The article highlights five groups with increasing consumer potential: retirees, individuals with dividend income from listed companies, urban operators, rural wage earners, and those engaging in preventive savings [3][7]. - However, it also notes that certain groups, such as borrowers and urban private sector employees, require additional support to enhance their consumption potential [17][18]. Detailed Economic Data - The report provides a detailed analysis of May's economic data, indicating that the consumer price index (CPI) remained stable at -0.1%, while the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% [21][22]. - The unemployment rate in urban areas decreased to 5.0%, reflecting a slight improvement in the job market [22]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth has been primarily driven by sectors such as infrastructure and manufacturing, with manufacturing investment growth at 8.5% for the first five months of the year [38][40]. - The report also notes a decline in real estate investment, with new construction area down by 19.3% year-on-year in May [29][30].

同时将主要再融资利率从2.4%下调至 2.15%，边际贷款利率从2.65%下调至2.4%，均符合市场预期。 | ं | 欧元区欧洲央行边际贷款利率 | ★★★ | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.65% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ੋ | 欧元区欧洲央行主要再融资利率 | ★★★ | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.4% | | ं | 欧元区欧洲央行存款便利利率 | ★★★ | 2% | 2% | 2.25% | 此外，欧央行坚持其对未来利率路径的措辞，欧央行表示，决心确保通胀率持续稳定在2%，管理委员会 准备好调整所有工具。 关税影响方面，欧央行表示，贸易政策不确定性将影响投资和出口，贸易升级将导致经济增长和通胀放 缓。 欧洲央行利率决议公布后，欧元兑美元EUR/USD短线快速上升后回落，报1.1416。 通胀率跌破2%、经济遭受关税威胁 本周的数据显示，欧元区5月份通胀率降至1.9%，为8个月来首次跌破2%，也是2021 年以来第二次跌破 2%。经济放缓的原因是服务业价格涨幅放缓，工资增长也有所降温，这支持工资增长在赶上通胀后将会 放缓的观点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian economy's GDP growth of 2.2% in the first quarter exceeded expectations, but underlying issues suggest a more concerning economic reality [1] Economic Performance - The 2.2% annualized GDP growth was driven by a 6.7% surge in exports and an increase in corporate inventories [1] - Preliminary estimates for April indicate a 0.1% month-over-month growth, primarily supported by the commodities sector [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand remains weak, reflecting declining household confidence and businesses scaling back or canceling investment plans due to high uncertainty in trade policies [1] - Early tracking for the second quarter suggests a significant slowdown, with projected growth of only 0.5%, indicating potential overcapacity in the economy [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate stabilized above 1.3300, with the latest rate at 1.3308, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% as the market digests the recent economic data [1] - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q1, significantly surpassing the expected 0.6% and the previous quarter's growth of 0.1%, indicating stronger economic performance [1] - The market's expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England have decreased, with projections for a cut in 2025 dropping from 70 basis points to 44 basis points following the recent economic data [1] Group 2 - Hawkish comments from Bank of England officials have influenced market expectations, with a key speech from committee member Swati Dhingra anticipated [2] - The GBP/USD exchange rate remains trapped in a narrow range around 1.3300, with buying pressure preventing a drop below the 50-day EMA at approximately 1.3110 [2] - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the significance of trade agreements with the US and India despite facing economic headwinds [1]

供应紊乱可能会打压经济增速，并推高通胀。 美联储理事Barr：美国经济稳健，但贸易问题给前景蒙上阴影。 ...

Group 1: Investor Sentiment on A-shares - Investor sentiment towards A-shares improved after July 2024, with 68.2% of respondents expecting an increase in A-shares by November 2024, up 20.7 percentage points from July [1] - The expected return rate for A-shares rose to approximately 5.3% in November 2024, an increase of 9.3 percentage points from July [1] - The net increase in the number of respondents willing to invest in stocks was about 11.3% in November 2024, a rise of 24 percentage points from July [1] Group 2: External Environment and Real Estate Market - In April 2025, about 61.5% of respondents expected A-shares to rise, a decrease of 6.7 percentage points from November 2024 [2] - The proportion of respondents expecting housing prices to rise was approximately 52.5%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from September 2023 [2] - The expected return rate for housing prices was about 0.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from September 2023 [2] Group 3: Economic Growth and Investment Preferences - Approximately 33.2% of respondents believed future economic growth could exceed 5% [3] - The net increase in respondents willing to invest in gold was about 16.3%, up 17 percentage points from October 2018 [3] - About 54.4% of respondents believed China is world-leading in artificial intelligence, an increase of 14.7 percentage points from November 2024 [3]

01 逻辑与策略（P3-4） 目 录 CONTENTS 02 宏观主要资产资金流向变化（P5-6） 03 近期宏观数据分析与回顾（P7-13） 04 资金面分析与债券期现指标监控（P14-24） 05 权益宽基指数基本面、流动性与期现指标监控（P25-29） 06 宏观经济中期基本面跟踪监控（P30-46） 07 宏观经济长波基本面跟踪监控（P47-48） 双降落地资产反映相对平淡，4月外贸转口补充对美出口 逻辑与观点：资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 ——资金面推动债券预期较强，盯住资金面同时关注债市扰动 2025 - 5 - 1 1 中泰期货研究所宏观团队 李荣凯 从业资格号：F3012937 交易咨询从业证书号： Z0015266 TEL：13361063969 ◆ 上周观点与策略：观点与策略：关税冲突初步反应在PMI数据上，那么央行4月份买断式回购+MLF续作等额对冲是否显得滞后于经济数据，适度宽松的货币政策为何落地这么迟？我们认为 这一问题的核心在于，全年经济增速目标5.0%+一季度数据5.4%超预期，叠加今年财政政策靠前发力明显，央行货币政策可以适度延后。国际环境方面，关税政策存 ...

报 告 正 文 4 月制造业 PMI 回落至线下，供需两端均有走弱。服务业和建筑业商务活动指数均线上回落。 PMI 表现如何？ 4 月 全国制造业 PMI 录得 49.0% ，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点。各分项均较上月下降，其中 需求相对供给继续增强，内需相对外需大幅增强，大中小企业均落至线下运行，原材料价格和产成品价格双双 回落。 为何本月制造业 PMI 大幅下降？ 主要原因有三： 一是 前期"抢出口"影响下，制造业较快增长，导致 前期基数较高； 二是 外部环境急剧变化， 4 月 2 日美国对全球贸易伙伴强加关税压制抢出口； 三是 季节转 淡，存在一定的季节性影响。当前主要经济体制造业景气度普遍位于收缩区间， 3 月份美国制造业 PMI 为 49.0% ， 4 月份欧元区、英国、日本制造业 PMI 初值均低于临界点。 此外，有三点值得关注 ： 一是外部环境变化影响下，行业表现分化。 高技术制造业和部分内销为主的行业表 现相对稳定， 4 月高技术制造业 PMI 为 51.5% ，明显高于制造业总体水平；农副食品、酒饮料茶、医药等行 业的生产和新订单指数均位于 53.0% 及以上；服务业和建筑业商务活动预期指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the key tasks outlined in the government work report following the 2025 National Two Sessions, focusing on economic growth, consumption potential, asset price stability, and market confidence restoration [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Liu Shijun emphasizes the need for China to maintain a medium-speed economic growth rate of at least 4% to surpass the high-income threshold, suggesting that the nominal growth rate should exceed the actual growth rate [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of consumption as a key driver of economic growth, noting that China's final consumption accounts for nearly 20 percentage points less of GDP compared to international levels [2]. - Liu Shijun proposes increasing urban and rural residents' pensions from 220 yuan per person per month to around 400 yuan in one to two years, aiming for 600 yuan in three years and 1,000 yuan in five years, which could activate over 1 trillion yuan in consumption potential [3]. Group 2: Policy Adjustments and Market Confidence - Wang Yiming points out that the government work report prioritizes boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, reflecting a shift in policy focus from investment to consumption [4][5]. - The report indicates that stabilizing asset prices, particularly housing prices, is crucial, with a need for clear responsibilities and effective policies to manage supply and demand [6]. - Liu Yuanchun notes that the policy framework for 2025 must be adaptable to uncertainties, with a focus on maintaining a strong decision-making capacity in response to external shocks and internal risks [8][9]. Group 3: Enhancing Business Vitality - Yang Ruilong identifies four key areas to stimulate the vitality of domestic business entities: clarifying property rights, allowing self-management and accountability, ensuring fair competition, and minimizing unnecessary administrative intervention [10][11]. - The article stresses the importance of protecting private enterprise rights and creating a competitive environment for private businesses, particularly in infrastructure and major research projects [11].