Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 was a transformative year for the bond market, with yield trends shifting from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, trading strategies evolving, market scale expanding, and asset correlations changing [3][15]. - In 2026, China's economy will feature "internal improvement, external stability, and structural optimization", with GDP growth target around 5%. Monetary policy will remain "moderately loose", and fiscal policy will be "actively expansionary" [4][5]. - The bond market in 2026 will see a positive supply trend, with institutional behavior showing "stable but changing allocation and contracting and differentiating trading". The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state [7][8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Bond Market Review - **Yield Trend**: Yields shifted from a unilateral decline to narrow - range fluctuations, with a pattern of "rising - falling - rising - fluctuating" for long - term yields and short - term yields anchored around policy rates [15][16]. - **Bond Products**: The bond market became a core financing channel for economic transformation, with a high - stock, fast - expanding, and government - bond - concentrated structure [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Financial institutions' trading strategies shifted from "trend trading" to a "coupon + band" composite strategy, with commercial banks and insurance institutions as the main holders of interest - rate bonds and brokers and overseas institutions increasing market volatility [23]. - **Asset Linkage**: The traditional linkage between treasury bond yields and traditional assets (A - shares, US stocks, gold) was broken, showing "three reversals" [29]. 2. Fundamentals: Internal Improvement, Gradual Progress - **GDP Growth Target**: In 2025, the GDP growth target of 5% was basically achieved, with a "high - then - low" pattern. In 2026, the target may remain around 5% [37][38]. - **Consumption Growth**: In 2025, consumption momentum slowed and there was a clear trend of consumption downgrade. In 2026, consumption will moderately recover, but factors such as policy support, income, and balance - sheet repair will limit the improvement [41][42]. - **Investment Growth**: In 2025, investment growth turned negative, showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, investment is expected to stop falling and stabilize, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment as the core driving forces, and the decline in real - estate investment will narrow slightly [44][45][47]. - **Export Growth**: In 2025, exports showed strong resilience. In 2026, export growth is expected to remain stable, supported by factors such as diversified trade markets, upgraded export product structures, and enterprise overseas investment [52][53]. - **Price Movement**: In 2025, prices rebounded at a low level. In 2026, CPI will moderately recover, PPI's decline will narrow, and the GDP deflator is expected to gradually recover but may still be in the negative range [59]. 3. Policy Front: Moderately Loose Monetary Policy, Actively Expansionary Fiscal Policy - **Monetary Policy**: In 2025, monetary policy was moderately loose and operation became more refined. In 2026, it will continue the "moderately loose" tone, focusing on precise measures and cross - cycle balance, with policy tools transforming from quantity - based to price - based [62][63]. - **Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, fiscal policy was significantly expansionary, with a higher deficit rate. In 2026, it will continue the "actively expansionary" main line, with characteristics of "stable total growth, optimized structure, and front - loaded rhythm" [68]. 4. Bond Supply: Scale Expansion and Structural Optimization - **2025**: The supply of interest - rate bonds increased significantly, with government bonds leading the expansion and a front - loaded fiscal leverage rhythm [75]. - **2026**: The bond market supply will be positive, featuring "scale expansion, front - loaded rhythm, investment in new areas, and longer terms", with the government bond scale expected to reach a record high [76]. 5. Institutional Behavior: Stable but Changing Allocation, Contracting and Differentiating Trading - **Allocation Disk**: Commercial banks' bond allocation will increase steadily, with a shift towards the medium - and short - term. Insurance institutions' demand for bond allocation may weaken, and there will be a re - balance between stocks and bonds [84][85]. - **Trading Disk**: The trading disk's allocation of interest - rate bonds will contract overall, with internal differentiation and more cautious strategies [86]. 6. Equity Disturbance: From "Strong Stocks, Weak Bonds" to "Stock - Bond Re - balance" - **2025**: The stock - bond relationship was mainly "strong stocks, weak bonds", with the strength of the equity market suppressing the bond market [95]. - **2026**: The equity market is likely to continue to recover, and the stock - bond relationship will shift from a "see - saw" to a "re - balanced" state, with the squeezing effect on the bond market weakening [99]. 7. Capital Price: Continued Loose Capital, Marginally Increased Volatility - **2025**: Capital prices showed a downward trend with converging volatility, with the central bank guiding the centralization of capital prices and suppressing short - term fluctuations [102]. - **2026**: Capital prices are expected to show a double - feature of "systematically downward centralization and magnified periodic volatility", with the central bank relying on multiple tools to maintain stability [103]. 8. Outlook for Major Asset Trends - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields may show a "quasi - inverted V" pattern, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond yield [109][111]. - **A - shares**: The equity market is likely to show a pattern of "shock - strengthening and structural differentiation", focusing on new - quality productivity [112]. - **US Stocks**: US stocks will continue to rise with technology leading, but the upward slope may slow down, and there is a risk of valuation bubbles [113]. - **US Bonds**: US bond yields will show a downward - centralization and steepening curve, but supply pressure and inflation resilience will limit the downward space [114]. - **Gold**: Gold prices will likely remain high, fluctuating upwards, but the upward momentum may slow down [115].

本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 自强不息，飞龙在天 ——2026年宏观分析 汇报部门：研究中心 汇 报 人：郑 弘 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015227 | 海外逻辑 | | --- | | 中国逻辑 | | --- | | | | 01. 02. 1 美国: 分歧与矛盾加剧 1.1. 回顾2025年经济指标与资产价格 | 图 | 美国经济指标多数下行 | 图 | 美国资产表现分化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | z | | | | 本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 • 2025年美国经济与资产出现背离，即经济数据走弱的同时资产表现走强。 • 一是宽松政策的加持，二是AI兴起作为对冲，这一背景将延续至26年 2.1.降息周期即将进入第三年 • 2025年3次降息共75bp，联邦基金利率降至【3.50%-3.75%】区间 • 2026关注之一为主席换届后美联储独立性如何，关注之二为第三年联储政策预期如何 图 联邦基准利率 本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 2 ...

12月29日，贵金属市场的剧烈波动给火爆的年终涨势踩下刹车，白银期货更是创下近五年来最大单日跌幅。据证券时报网报道，29日，COMEX黄金期货跌 4.45%；COMEX白银期货跌7.2%。现货黄金大跌超4%，现货白银大跌近9%，现货钯金跌超15%，现货铂金跌超14%。 特斯拉首席执行官马斯克上周末（27日）就在社交平台发表了自己对"白银价格飙涨"的看法。"这不是好事，许多工业流程都需要用到白银。"他在一则有 关"白银价格飙涨"的帖子下评论道。 据报道，周一的市场剧烈波动引发市场猜测，即白银创纪录式的涨势可能接近尾声。道明证券分析师丹尼尔·加利在一份报告中写道："鉴于白银的周期性顶 部可能会削弱散户交易员的投机热情，这可能会拉低整个金属板块。" 美国高岭期货的金属交易主管大卫·梅格尔指出，几乎所有的金属价格都上涨至近期高点，甚至是历史最高点，此后投资者获利回吐引发回调。"我认为，白 银的供应问题仍然是影响市场的重要因素，我们对2026年的前景仍然持乐观态度。"梅格尔说道。 据新华社介绍，业内分析人士认为从需求侧来看，白银的工业需求持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越 性 ...

在分析宏观趋势时，邵宇认为，出口展现了强大的韧性，在复杂国际环境下仍创下盈余纪录，为中国经济提供了坚实的外部支撑。展望未来，他提出中国经 济的长期发展空间将由两大关键因素定义：一是以新能源为代表的绿色转型，二是以科技突破为核心的新质生产力发展。 邵宇分析道，中国城市化进程仍有提升空间，预计到2035年达到峰值，这将结合新能源转型，为像安徽、合肥这样率先布局科技产业化的地区带来持续 的"腾挪空间"和发展机遇。他特别强调，在人口结构变化的背景下，应对未来劳动力与服务需求的技术创新，如人形机器人等领域，将孕育出巨大的市场潜 力。 12月29日，由凤凰网、剑南春联合主办的"万里同春·徽聚未来——2025安徽企业家思享荟"于合肥召开，旨在解析资本市场动态，助力企业财富增值与战略 布局，挖掘区域产业升级机遇，明晰投资方向。 复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵宇在主题为《新质生产力下产业机遇与投资破局》的演讲中，从结构视角分析了中国经济的现状与未来。他指 出，当前经济正处于深刻的转型期，呈现出显著的结构性分化特征。他以资本市场为例指出，代表前沿科技的GPU企业与传统房地产行业在市值、营收与员 工规模上对比鲜明，这反映了 ...

（原标题：阿联酋2025年多项全球竞争力指标跻身世界前列） 此外，阿联酋在人类发展指数中跃升至全球第15位，是唯一进入前20名的阿拉伯国家；在世界人才 排名、数字政府、人工智能准备度及政府技术成熟度等方面亦表现突出。安全与营商环境方面，阿联酋 被评为全球最安全国家之一，并连续第四年在全球创业监测报告中排名第一。联合国贸发会议数据显 示，2024年阿联酋吸引外国直接投资1676亿迪拉姆，位居全球第十，进一步巩固其国际投资和商业中心 地位。 Zawya新闻网12月25日报道，2025年，阿联酋在多项国际竞争力与发展指数中位居全球前列，彰显 其制度建设和经济转型成效。在IMD世界竞争力排名中，阿联酋位列全球前五，连续第九年保持地区第 一；全球软实力指数排名第十，国家品牌价值升至1.223万亿美元。 ...

我们可以简单地回顾一下2025年的债券市场。应该说从年初到现在12月中旬，马上要过完今年了，是一 个非常波澜壮阔的行情。虽然我们看到可能从年初跟当前相比，整个利率波动的幅度其实并不高，但是 在今年一个低利率的环境下，可能20到30个基点的波动足以让大部分的债券从业人员产生非常不适的感 受。 我们也看到了今年的债券市场，大家都在聊说今年是和基本面脱敏的一年。我们可以看到，当基本面出 现阶段性承压的时候，债券市场并没有走出一波偏利多的趋势，反而是出现了一些波折，尤其在跨年的 前后。我们也看到了部分期限的品种出现了非常大的波动。 风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期收益及预期 风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特 ...

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy in 2025 shows a clear trend of strong external demand and export growth, while internal demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and fixed asset investment, leading to continued pressure on consumption [1][3] Internal vs External Demand - The balance between internal and external demand is crucial for determining the economic direction, with final consumption contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP, capital formation contributing 0.9 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points [2] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of the population feels pessimistic about employment, with 57.4% of respondents in a survey expressing concerns about job prospects, leading to a low consumer sentiment index of 25.8 [4] - Retail sales growth remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% in November, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market shows a divergence between first-tier cities, which have seen relatively stable prices, and lower-tier cities, which have experienced significant declines. However, by late 2025, this divergence is expected to narrow [5] - New home and second-hand home prices in major cities have declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, heavily influenced by a 15.9% drop in real estate investment. Private investment has also declined by 5.3% [13] - Government and state-owned enterprise investments are becoming the primary drivers of new investments, with social financing growing by 8.5% year-on-year [13] Export Performance - Exports are experiencing a structural transformation, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8%, while labor-intensive product exports have decreased [11] - Trade with the U.S. has declined by 16.9%, while trade with ASEAN countries has increased by 8.5%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [12] Sectoral Disparities - New industries supported by national policies are showing stable income and development expectations, but their ability to create jobs is limited due to automation [6] - Traditional sectors, such as new energy vehicles, are facing challenges from price wars, limiting their ability to provide substantial employment opportunities [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is characterized by a decline in large durable goods, while basic and discretionary spending remains stable but under price pressure [10] - The trend of "emotional consumption" is evident, with increased travel and entertainment participation but lower average spending per outing [10] Government Debt and Real Estate Risks - The real estate sector faces significant risks, including asset-liability risks from falling prices and systemic pressures on local finances due to shrinking land revenue [15] - Government debt is increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, while public budget revenues are only growing by 0.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressures [16]

值得注意的风险点有三：一是房地产的拖累作用还未出清，地产修复比大家预期晚；二是房地产连带 的地方政府化债压力大，挤压政策空间；三是外需不确定性依然存在，对增长的拉动可能下降。 "新稳态"下，中国经济增长模式逐渐从地产拉动转向创新驱动，基建和高技术产业接棒房地产拉动经 济增长。 但转型期间，房产价格下降到企稳向上或还需一定时间，需要关注可能带来的疤痕效应， 具体体现在居民消费及投资可能长时间趋于谨慎。 回归到权益市场，当前中国类资产负债表衰退背景下，开启了一轮估值修复与资产轮动驱动的行情。 综合来看，2026经济全年增长依旧承压，投资下滑势头有望低位企稳，消费缓慢抬升，出口有韧 性，价格温和改善，进而带动名义GDP上行，企业盈利或持续修复，这将成为市场的基本面支撑。据 此， A股有望从估值抬升带来的"急而促"行情逐渐过渡到盈利支撑的"缓而慢"的行情。 行业配置来 看， 现代化产业和产能出海是趋势，科技依旧是主线 。此外， 基于外需增长和供需逻辑改善的涨价 链条值得重视 。 投资策略：三重多元化推动再平衡 招商基金多元策略与投资创新部资深研究员王婧表示，2026年投资策略可以概括为"三重多元化推动 再平衡"： 第 ...

住建部"收购存量房转保障房"政策引发连锁反应。中指研究院数据显示，6500亿元专项债已瞄准闲置土地收储，这既为商品房市场腾挪出改善型需求空间， 又通过保障房供应激活中低收入群体消费能力。深圳公积金支付首付、山东商办房"以旧换新"等创新模式，正在构建"市场+保障"的双轮驱动格局。当新市 民能以更低门槛安家，消费升级的自然传导链就形成了。 当青岛港提前15天突破7亿吨货物吞吐量，当中国外贸顺差历史性站上1万亿美元高点，中央经济工作会议却将"内需主导"列为2026年首要任务。这看似矛盾 的决策背后，藏着中国经济转型的深层密码。 外贸高增长下的隐忧：顺差破万亿难掩结构失衡 前11个月41.21万亿元的进出口总额中，藏着两个关键数字：对美出口下降18.9%的897.6亿美元缺口，被对东盟多出的723.76亿美元和对欧增长的384亿美元 精准填补。中国国际经济交流中心研究员张茉楠指出，这种"东方不亮西方亮"的贸易格局，正是2018年以来市场多元化战略的成果。但民营企业贡献的 23.52万亿元进出口额中，超七成锂电池、近六成医疗器械的硬核出口数据，反而暴露出内需市场的短板——高端产能过度依赖外需。 消费引擎的53.5%贡献 ...

强化"投资于人"、坚持内需主导、经济转型持续推进 本报记者 孟珂 2025年，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展。党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议召开，为推动高质量发展注入强大 动力。在此背景下，如何看待当前中国经济形势，2026年我国经济又将有哪些核心增长点？《证券日报》采访了八大首席经济 学家进行深入解读。 2025年经济韧性凸显 12月份以来，多家国际机构上调中国经济增速预期，如IMF（国际货币基金组织）预计2025年中国经济增速为5%，较10月 份预测上调0.2个百分点。世界银行预测为4.9%，较6月份预测上调0.4个百分点。 招商基金研究部首席经济学家李湛表示，2026年，财政赤字率预计在4.0%至4.2%之间，赤字规模或较2025年温和增加，专 项债额度可能提升至4.5万亿元至4.7万亿元。超长期特别国债延续发行，规模有望在1.5万亿元至1.7万亿元，继续支持"两重"建 设、城市更新与战略性新兴产业布局。广义财政赤字率可能略抬升至9%左右。 中信建投首席经济学家黄文涛表示，2026年赤字率保持不低于4%，广义口径或抬升至8.8%左右，支出端进一步强化"投资 于人"的领域。 分析原因，温彬表示，考虑 ...