（原标题：加纳计划提升外汇储备至200亿美元） 据"乐在线"2月6日报道，加纳总统马哈马宣布计划到2029年将外汇储备增加到200亿美元以上，标志着 加纳在实现经济稳定和韧性方面迈出了重要一步。 建立强大的外汇储备对于保障国民经济至关重要，并确保国家能够在不过度依赖外部融资的情况下履行 义务。强劲的外汇储备将保护加纳免受外部冲击，稳定塞地汇率，并增强投资者信心。加纳正积极利用 其自然资源禀赋、生产部门和战略伙伴关系来扩大储备，举措包括增加黄金出口、实现采矿业增值环节 的本土化以及采取审慎的财政和货币政策，并倡导将存于西方金融机构的非洲外汇储备调回并进行投 资。 马哈马总统表示，如果将非洲30%的外汇储备重新投入非洲金融机构，能为基础设施、工业化和经济转 型创造巨大的资金池。到2029年，加纳目标将外汇储备提升至超过200亿美元，这将为国家安全、稳定 和可持续增长提供平台。 ...

2026年启幕"十五五"新篇，全球经济于大国博弈与技术变革中寻求平衡，中国经济则在韧性增长与结构 升级中迈向高质量发展。外部环境变幻、内需复苏、新质生产力培育及金融"五篇大文章"落地，构成新 一年核心议题。值此，金融界特别推出《启航·预见2026》栏目，聚集百位首席，拆解政策取向、解析 产业机遇、预判市场走势。 本文来源：中诚信国际研究院 2025年全年经济守住5%增速目标，经济总量历史性突破140万亿元，但也凸显了经济转型阶段所特有的 结构性承压特征。从增长趋势看，全年呈现"前高后低"的运行特征，名义增速仍落后于实际增速，宏微 观温差已三年没有明显改善。经济结构延续"供强需弱"的格局，工业生产"新旧分化"、"两新"对全年经 济支撑较大但效果逐渐走弱。下半年社零和三大投资同步下滑，尤其是投资增速首次转负，在过去稳增 长时期较为罕见。 从全年经济特点看，2025年是多重变量交织下的重构之年。其一体现在DeepSeek突破下的宏观叙事重 构，中国资产迎来重估的同时，也间接推动了主体资产负债表的边际修复；其二体现在中美博弈扰动下 的出口韧性重构，在转口遭遇封堵的背景下，新兴国家工业化进程或是出口的主要拉动项；其三体 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite concerns over absolute price increases, AI companies' stock price rises are supported by EPS growth, making valuation increases reasonable due to stable profit models and broad market space [1][12] - The market is expected to shift from a focus on a few standout stocks to a more diversified opportunity landscape in 2026 [2][13] - There is a cautious optimism regarding AI's potential to drive actual growth, with the understanding that AI adoption will be gradual rather than explosive [3][14] Group 2 - The technology sector is anticipated to perform well, but the gap between tech and other sectors may narrow, leading to a more balanced market performance in 2026 [3][14] - Investors are advised to balance their portfolios by considering other themes alongside AI stocks [3][14] - The high capital expenditure pressure on tech companies contrasts with their previous appeal based on low capital spending and stable cash flows [1][12] Group 3 - The global economic environment is expected to support capital market performance in 2026, driven by AI-related investments, a continued easing monetary policy, and reduced tariff uncertainties [5][17] - Emerging markets have shown significant relative advantages over developed markets, with expectations of continued outperformance in 2026 [6][18] - The shift in capital allocation may lead to a diversification away from a heavy concentration in U.S. assets towards emerging markets [19] Group 4 - In the Chinese market, opportunities are emerging from economic structural transformations, including shifts in consumption patterns and competitive models [20] - The focus on new consumption trends, particularly among younger demographics, is expected to create investment opportunities in small and medium-sized private enterprises [20][21] - The role of private enterprises in driving economic quality improvements is becoming increasingly significant, supported by favorable government policies [21][22]

Economic Growth and Structural Changes - China's GDP is projected to reach 140 trillion by 2025 with a growth rate stabilizing at 5%, but the current forecast for 2026 indicates a slowdown to around 4.5% due to structural adjustments towards higher quality growth [2][8] - The International Monetary Fund and Goldman Sachs affirm the resilience of the Chinese economy despite challenges such as weak consumption and real estate adjustments [2][8] Income and Consumption Trends - Per capita disposable income is expected to rise nominally by 5% to 43,400, but this growth does not match the pace of GDP growth, indicating a disparity in wealth distribution [4][10] - Urban residents have a per capita disposable income of 56,500, while rural residents stand at 24,500, showing a noticeable but still significant gap [6] - Consumer spending per capita is projected at 29,500, with a 4.4% increase, but the preference for saving is evident as household deposits have surged to 167 trillion, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment [6][10] Employment and Job Market Dynamics - The economic transition is leading to significant job market changes, with traditional sectors like real estate and construction declining, while new growth areas such as renewable energy and AI are emerging [12][14] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 5.2%, with young people facing increased difficulty in finding jobs due to the mismatch between skills and job requirements in new industries [8][14] - The shift towards technology-intensive industries is creating structural unemployment, as many workers lack the necessary qualifications for new job opportunities [12][14] Policy Responses and Future Outlook - The government is focusing on targeted policies to address structural challenges, including large-scale vocational training programs aimed at equipping workers with skills relevant to emerging sectors [20][24] - There is an emphasis on increasing income for middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, which is crucial for driving domestic demand [20][24] - The transition period is expected to be challenging, but the direction towards quality growth is seen as sustainable and necessary for long-term economic health [18][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in investment behavior, where a substantial influx of capital into mutual funds indicates a collective upgrade in investment strategies rather than impulsive decisions [4][14]. Group 1: Fund Inflows - In the first month of the year, newly established funds raised over 113.7 billion yuan, representing a 36% year-on-year increase [4]. - This influx is attributed to declining deposit rates and shrinking returns on wealth management products, leading investors to seek more stable long-term returns through mutual funds [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Shift - The current investment approach has shifted from short-term trading tools to equity funds and Funds of Funds (FOF), indicating a focus on long-term growth and risk diversification [7][8]. - Investors are moving away from speculative investments towards a more mature mindset, emphasizing comprehensive judgment rather than chasing single-point opportunities [9]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Capital is increasingly concentrated in sectors such as technological innovation and high-end manufacturing, reflecting a vote of confidence in economic transformation [10][11]. - This trend signifies that investors are willing to commit funds to areas that promise sustainable growth, rather than merely following trends [11]. Group 4: Market Behavior - The frequent occurrences of "sold out in one day" and "early closure of fundraising" suggest clearer expectations and more decisive investment decisions among channels [12][13]. - This behavior indicates a shift towards efficiency in capital allocation, rather than a mere rush to invest [13].

发展信心显著增强。在经济环境不佳、经济形势复杂、不确定性因素增多的大背景下，信心比什么都重 要。信心在，希望就在，信心强，希望就大。过去的2025年，全省上下干事创业的信心显著增强，政府 谋服务，企业谋发展，居民谋幸福，多管齐下，齐心协力，众志成城，去除各种影响发展信心的不利因 素，调动一切可以调动的积极因素，最显著的，莫过于"苏超"的出圈。原本只是普通的城市足球联赛， 却成了火遍全国的文体旅融合盛宴，不仅国家级媒体集体介入，不少国外媒体也纷纷报道。更重要的， 参与到"苏超"热潮中的，远非球迷，而是全省乃至全国人民，并带火了湘超、浙超等多个省份的城市足 球联赛。"苏超"带给江苏的，既是信心的全面恢复，也是信心的快速传递，更是信心的火花碰撞，"苏 超"让江苏发展经济的自信更强了。 江苏经济再次突破万亿台阶。中新社1月28日报道，江苏省统计局、国家统计局江苏调查总队28日公 布，2025年，江苏省实现地区生产总值（GDP）142351.5亿元，按不变价格计算，比上年增长5.3%，高 于全国5%水平。其中，第一产业增加值5369.7亿元，同比增长3.5%；第二产业增加值60038.2亿元，增 长4.7%；第三产业增 ...

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, with significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market is expected to perform well due to the rapid economic transition and high demand for technology sectors[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability, with no significant new stimulus measures announced in December[30] - The government aims to support domestic demand through fiscal and monetary policies, including increased consumer loan subsidies[28] Inflation and Financial Cycle - December CPI rose by 0.8%, while PPI decreased by 1.9%, indicating a mixed inflation outlook[24] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with social financing growth slowing to 8.3% year-on-year[24]

Global Macro - Global manufacturing shows moderate expansion with a PMI of 50.4% in November, while the US manufacturing PMI is at 51.8% and the Eurozone at 48.8%[7] - The US manufacturing sector is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, while the Eurozone, particularly Germany, faces significant challenges with a PMI of 47%[7] Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is set at 5%, with nominal GDP growth at 4%[11] - Consumption contributes 2.6% to GDP growth, investment contributes 0.77%, and net exports contribute 1.64%[11] - December data shows a 0.9% year-on-year increase in retail sales, but significant declines in sectors like construction materials (-11.8%) and home appliances (-18.7%)[17] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in December fell by 16%, with manufacturing investment down 10.5% and real estate investment down 36.3%[19] - The stock market outlook remains positive, driven by a rapid economic transition and significant capital inflows from under-allocated savings[33] Policy Environment - The policy focus remains on stability rather than aggressive stimulus, with measures aimed at supporting demand and managing external risks[30] - The financial cycle is in a downward trend, with inflation showing signs of recovery but lacking strong momentum[24] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts and unexpected downturns in the Chinese economy[34]

Group 1 - Current international gold prices are at historical highs, and a short-term pullback is considered normal. If risk aversion decreases, some funds may exit the gold market to seek other asset allocation directions [1][8] - Compared to overvalued US stocks, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks remain undervalued in the global capital market. The CSI 300 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of only 15 times, which is below historical averages, indicating significant room for growth [1][8] - Recent technological breakthroughs in China, particularly in large models, semiconductor chips, and big data, have enhanced global capital confidence in Chinese technological innovation, reversing some pessimistic expectations about the Chinese economy [1][8] Group 2 - Since 2025, market expectations for economic recovery have increased, leading to a shift towards equity assets, which has significantly boosted the stock market. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, attracting more investors [2][9] - Approximately 50 trillion RMB of fixed deposits will mature in 2026, with previous rates around 3% now dropping to about 1%. This situation compels funds to reconsider their allocation between low-interest deposits and potentially more lucrative equity or bond markets [2][9] - In 2025, new fund sales in China exceeded 1 trillion units, with over half being equity funds, contrasting sharply with the previous year dominated by fixed-income funds, indicating a growing interest in equity asset allocation [2][9] Group 3 - The current market is characterized as a slow bull market rather than a fast bull market, suggesting that investors should maintain a stable stock-bond allocation ratio and hold positions for several years without frequent adjustments [3][10] - Equity funds are more volatile and suitable for risk-tolerant investors, while bond funds, although generally stable, can still experience fluctuations due to interest rate changes and liquidity issues [3][10] - The performance of different asset classes is showing significant divergence, with the real estate market experiencing a downturn, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards quality stocks and funds as the primary vehicles for wealth growth [4][11] Group 4 - The slow bull market provides a unique opportunity for investors to choose industries, stocks, and funds, allowing them to share in market growth without the pressure of rapid fluctuations [5][12] - Investors are advised to align their portfolios with the economic transformation and focus on sectors that align with national development strategies, avoiding industries that are gradually being phased out [6][12] - Continuous learning and improving financial literacy are essential for investors to navigate the stock market effectively, as the quality of individual stocks can vary significantly [6][12]

1月26日上午，广东省十四届人大五次会议在广州开幕，省长孟凡利代表省人民政府作政府工作报告。 报告提到，2026年广东的主要预期目标是：地区生产总值增长4.5%—5%，在实际工作中全力争取更好 结果，地方一般公共预算收入增长3%左右，居民收入增长与经济增长同步。 可以预见，围绕扩大内需、科技创新、产业升级、区域协调、优化营商环境等关键领域，一系列更具针 对性、突破性的政策措施将加快落地，驱动经济航船在守住基本盘的同时，不断向着更高水平乘风破 浪。这份"全力争取"的斗志，源于广东雄厚的产业根基和澎湃的创新活力，也必将转化为推动经济持续 回升向好的强大动能。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 从经济环境角度看，2025年广东人均GDP约为11.48万元。这样的数据直观反映了人民的生活水平，同 时也意味着过去那种凭土地、靠低人力成本优势的经济发展模式难以为继。而在国际层面，近年来，全 球地缘冲突不绝，关税战此起彼伏，扰动不止，不确定性增加，外部压力持续加大。过去很长一段时 间，广东经济一路领跑，现在到了经济发展的十字路口，必须直面房地产调整、动能转换、模式更迭等 现实，抓住新的技术革命大风口，戮力推动经济转型。 沿着高质量 ...