#亚太瞭望台#如果说2025年的国际金融市场有什么场面能让人拍案叫绝，那一定是——金价像坐火箭一样往上冲。短短三个月，从4000美元飙到5000美元/ 盎司，创下近40年来最大涨幅。更夸张的是，2026年1月全球黄金ETF单月流入180亿美元，直接刷新历史纪录。 但真正值得深挖的，不是金价涨了多少，而是： 是谁在背后不断"加仓黄金"，把这波行情推成了全球性事件？ 答案很简单——全球央行，尤其是新兴市场央行。 一、2025年全球央行购金：从"稳健配置"变成"战略性囤货" 过去十多年，央行买黄金一直是慢悠悠的节奏，可到了2025年，这股风突然变得急促、坚决、甚至带点"抢货"的味道。 根据国际机构公开数据，新兴市场央行已经连续三年购金规模超过1000吨/年。 其中最亮眼的两个玩家，就是——中国与俄罗斯。 中国央行在2022—2024年间累计增持331吨黄金，这个节奏在2025年并没有放缓，反而更像是进入了"战略加速期"。 为什么中国要持续买金？ - 美元资产占比要降，但不能太明显，黄金是最体面的替代品 - 人民币国际化需要"硬锚"，黄金就是最硬的那块 - 地缘政治不确定性上升，黄金是最稳的底仓 一句话总结： 中国买 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 20352, with an opening price of 21718 CNY/kg and a current price of 20850 CNY/kg, reflecting a 1.77% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was 21720 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 20350 CNY/kg, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver futures [1] - The recent upward movement in silver futures suggests a potential bullish reversal, with a preliminary target set at 25000 CNY/kg, contingent on market conditions [4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being threatened by political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has criticized current Chair Powell and called for significant interest rate cuts [3] - The Canadian central bank has acknowledged that geopolitical issues and threats to the Fed's independence have increased global volatility and uncertainty [3] - The U.S. trade policy is increasingly being used for geopolitical purposes, impacting global supply chains and potentially raising inflation while suppressing demand [3]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are currently the focus of market trading, but increased volatility has made trading more challenging. The article aims to analyze the significant fluctuations in precious metals and the potential logical developments that may follow [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in prices began in early December, driven by factors such as the physical currency logic, the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, and heightened market expectations leading to a "short squeeze" logic [4]. - The decline in prices started on January 29, primarily triggered by the "Walsh trade," with the equity market's downturn exacerbating liquidity feedback, leading to a chain reaction of sell-offs across various asset classes [4][21]. - The current precious metals market is in a period of adjustment following significant volatility, with January's surge reflecting a prelude to the collapse of the US dollar's credit, while February's drop serves as a stress test for tightening liquidity expectations [5][43]. Group 2: Key Drivers of Price Movements - The price surge from December to January was fundamentally linked to the deterioration of US dollar credit, physical currency dynamics, and expectations of liquidity easing. The US dollar index fell from 100 to a low of 95.6 during this period [6]. - The logic of physical currency was driven by the decline in sovereign credit, with rising global bond yields due to inflation and default risks prompting a shift of funds into physical precious metals [7]. - The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion by the end of 2025, with a fiscal deficit rate expanding to 5.85%, indicating significant risks in the fiscal situation and leading to a depreciation of dollar credit [10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Following the volatility in early February, the precious metals market has shifted from speculative frenzy to a more rational state, with implied volatility significantly decreasing from historical highs [28]. - Non-commercial long positions have been significantly reduced, indicating a cleansing of speculative leverage that had accumulated above $100, leading to a healthier market structure [29]. - Silver prices found strong support at the 60-day moving average, indicating robust buying interest from industrial capital, while the US dollar index faced resistance at the 98 level, confirming its role as a mid-term top [32]. Group 4: Future Core Drivers - The future direction of the precious metals market will depend on whether the core logic of physical currency and dollar credit remains unchanged, with three main drivers to watch: the interplay between physical currency and dollar credit, liquidity logic and policy support, and the potential for a silver squeeze [33]. - Observing the 10-year US Treasury yield against the dollar index will be crucial, as a divergence could signal a re-evaluation of dollar credit risk [34]. - The liquidity logic is critical, with the reserve ratio of the Federal Reserve falling to around 11%, indicating potential liquidity risks that could prompt a shift in policy from tightening to easing [39].

前言 白宫欢庆AI芯片关税大棒落下，以为按下"核按钮"锁死对手未来？ 殊不知，大洋彼岸的北京金融街，一场更深远的金融反击已悄然进行：700亿美元美债被静默抛售，这 哪里是贸易战，分明是一场关于美元信用的窒息游戏。 硅谷上空的黑色幽默 让我们先回到那场在华盛顿被视为"胜利"的关税庆典。 现在的硅谷，空气里弥漫的可不是香槟味，而是焦虑烧焦电路板的味道。就在白宫为了"保护本土供应 链"而沾沾自喜时，一张张来自独立机构的财务分析报告，如同冷水泼在了那些科技新贵的脸上。 那个被寄予厚望的25%关税壁垒，在现实的物理世界里撞得粉碎。数据不会撒谎：高达92%的关税成 本，最终并没有像回旋镖一样打在对手身上，而是结结实实地砸在了美国本土进口商的账单里。 你可以想象一下这个画面：一家位于帕洛阿尔托的AI初创公司，原本计划将这季度的预算全部投入大 模型训练，现在却不得不把这笔救命钱划拨给海关账户。对于他们来说，这哪里是保护？这简直是"友 军火力覆盖"。 更讽刺的是物理层面的阻滞。 在这个算力即权力的时代，时间就是一切。但这道行政令，硬生生把原本流畅的物流周期拉长了3-4 周。这三四周的时间，足够竞争对手迭代出一个新的算法版本，而 ...

Group 1 - Global economic conditions remain divergent, with the Eurozone and Japan expected to see economic improvements in Q4 due to stable internal demand and recovering exports, while the US economy is projected to slow down due to a cooling labor market and declining investment growth [1] - The US labor market is showing signs of cooling, with GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2025 recorded at -0.6%, 3.8%, and 4.3%, respectively, influenced by significant fluctuations in net exports [3] - The US inflation rate unexpectedly dropped from 3% in September to 2.7% in November, exceeding market expectations and leading to increased market anticipation for interest rate cuts [6] Group 2 - The US dollar index is expected to experience a short-term rebound in early 2026, but the overall trend may remain volatile due to mixed market sentiments and the impact of US economic data [9][10] - The Euro is anticipated to maintain a high-level fluctuation in early 2026, supported by a narrowing interest rate differential with the US and potential geopolitical events affecting market stability [13] - The Japanese yen is likely to remain within an upward channel, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and market risk sentiment [15] Group 3 - The Malaysian ringgit is projected to appreciate against the US dollar, supported by stable economic growth and a low unemployment rate, despite a slight decline in trade surplus [22][23] - The South African rand is expected to show a "strong oscillation" pattern in 2026, driven by internal economic improvements and external factors such as US interest rate cuts and commodity price increases [46][47]

从资金净流入方面来看，上海金ETF(159830)近3天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3.86亿元净流入，合计"吸金"4.02亿元。 【产品亮点】 紧密跟踪上海金指数相比多数黄金ETF主流费率0.6%/年，上海金ETF(159830)的管理费率+托管费率为"0.25%+0.05%"，处于市场费率较低档位。 【相关产品】 截至2026年2月9日 09:31，上海金ETF(159830)高开高走，成交额迅速走阔。 截至2月6日，上海金ETF(159830)最新份额创成立以来新高。 央行再出手！连续15个月增持黄金 中国央行黄金储备"十五连增"，1月环比增持4万盎司，增持节奏略有加快。国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为 33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。央行数据显示，中国1月末黄金储备报7419万盎司，12月末为7415万盎司，为连续第15个 月增持黄金。 【机构观点】 银河证券认为，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影响美国经济的根本面才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联 储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变：从金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, leading to diverse strategies among investors, with some cashing out while others remain bullish on gold assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Volatility - Gold prices have fluctuated dramatically, reaching a peak of $5,598 per ounce on January 29, 2025, before experiencing a sharp decline, including a 9.25% drop the following day and a further 4.52% drop on February 2, 2025, eventually dipping below $4,402 [2]. - Since August 2025, gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of nearly 50% [2]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - Investors are adopting varied strategies in response to market conditions: some are liquidating their positions, while others are holding onto their investments [2][6]. - A notable investor, referred to as A Cheng, adjusted his portfolio by reducing holdings in gold and silver ETFs while retaining some physical gold, having initially invested in gold after selling a property in 2023 [2][3]. - Another investor, Li Yun, has been purchasing gold bars for his children since 2020, and despite some profit-taking, he remains optimistic about gold's long-term value [3][6]. Group 3: Performance Outcomes - Long-term holders of gold have generally seen substantial profits, with A Cheng reporting an overall return of nearly 80% and profits exceeding 600,000 yuan [6]. - Conversely, investors engaging in short-term trading or using leverage, such as Qian Qian, have faced significant losses, including a complete loss of initial capital and subsequent debt accumulation [7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - A Cheng maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, suggesting it can provide a 6% to 8% return, although he notes that the appeal of new opportunities has diminished [8]. - Li Yun believes there is still room for gold price increases but is cautious about adding to his position at current high levels [9]. - Analysts predict that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing shifts in global monetary policy [10].

转自：新华财经 •银河证券：黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固 银河证券表示，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影响美国经济的根本面 才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变：从金融危机后深度介 入、为市场提供支持的"后盾"，转向更为传统、注重规则与纪律约束的"制度锚"。美元预计短期走强， 长期呈"慢熊"格局；美债短期收益率上行，价格承压，中长期若政策可信，长期通胀预期锚定在2%附 近。全球股市短期承压，长期美股先破后立。黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳固，央行购金将持续增 加，美元信用的任何瑕疵也会加速全球多极化储备体系的构建。 铜冠金源期货表示，隔夜公布的美国12月JOLTS职位空缺创五年多新低，远低于预期。美国挑战者企业 1月裁员10.8万人，创2009年以来同期新高，环比激增205%。美联储理事库克称，美联储必须在近期将 通胀率拉回目标水平，这对于维护其信誉至关重要。库克认为，目前风险偏向于通胀上行，同时经济前 景不确定性仍处高位。白银价格在短暂反弹之后再度大幅下挫。目前地缘局势暂时缓和，美联储官员发 布鹰派言论，且芝商所与上期所均再度宣布上调黄金白银 ...

人民财讯2月6日电，银河证券认为，不应将"美联储换帅"自动等同于市场趋势的大拐点，其政策如何影 响美国经济的根本面才是美元定价的基石。一个由沃什领导的美联储，或将开启央行角色的深刻转变： 从金融危机后深度介入、为市场提供支持的"后盾"，转向更为传统、注重规则与纪律约束的"制度锚"。 美元预计短期走强，长期呈"慢熊"格局；美债短期收益率上行，价格承压，中长期若政策可信，长期通 胀预期锚定在2%附近。全球股市短期承压，长期美股先破后立。黄金中长期牛市的核心逻辑依然稳 固，央行购金将持续增加，美元信用的任何瑕疵也会加速全球多极化储备体系的构建。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of gold prices in 2026 is expected to be characterized by high volatility and structural upward movement, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, continued global central bank gold purchases, expanding private investment demand, and weakening dollar credit [1][2]. Group 1: Price Predictions - The baseline scenario predicts gold prices to fluctuate between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce, with extreme scenarios potentially reaching $5,600 per ounce or dropping below $3,440 per ounce [1][2]. - Major institutions have differing predictions for gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its target to $5,400 per ounce, Bank of America forecasting a peak of $6,000 per ounce, and Jefferies setting an aggressive target of $6,600 per ounce [7][8]. Group 2: Macro Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Key macro factors include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a predicted federal funds rate median of 3.4% and expected rate cuts of 50-75 basis points, which would lower the cost of holding gold [3]. - The U.S. debt surpassing $38 trillion and high fiscal deficits are weakening dollar credit, prompting a shift towards gold as a hedge against currency depreciation [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. elections, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases are projected to remain a core support for gold prices, with net purchases expected to be around 850 tons in 2026, despite a slight decrease from 2025 [4]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" among emerging markets is driving consistent gold purchases, contributing to a stable bottom support for gold prices [4]. Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Private investment demand surged by 84% in 2025, reaching 2,175 tons, and is expected to continue driving demand in 2026 [5][9]. - A supply-demand gap is anticipated, with demand projected at 5,270 tons and supply at 4,950 tons, resulting in a gap of 320 tons [5]. - The shift in demand structure indicates that investment demand has overtaken jewelry consumption as the primary source of gold demand [9]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors are advised to maintain a gold allocation of 5%-15% of their total assets, with lower-risk investors focusing on low-premium gold bars and gold ETFs [10][11]. - The best timing for investment is suggested to be during price corrections, particularly when gold prices fall within the $4,800 to $5,100 per ounce range [12].