Core Viewpoint - The latest prediction from Polymarket indicates a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a 97.4% chance of no change [1] Summary by Categories Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates is 97.4% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1% [1] - Probability of a rate cut of 50+ basis points is negligible [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the future [1] Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates in January is 87% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12% [1] - Probability of a 50+ basis point rate cut is 1.3% [1] - Probability of a 25+ basis point rate increase is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Probability of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026: - 50 basis points: 24% [1] - 75 basis points: 20% [1] - 100 basis points: 16% [1] - 25 basis points: 10% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant likelihood of rate cuts in the future [1] Interest Rate Predictions - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate is 88% [1] - There is a 12% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.6% probability of a cut exceeding 50 basis points [1] - The likelihood of an increase of 25 basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Polymarket forecasts a 23% probability of cumulative rate cuts of 50 basis points by 2026 [1] - There is a 22% probability for a total cut of 75 basis points, a 16% probability for 100 basis points, and an 11% probability for 125 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the future [1] Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates in January is 81% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 18% [1] - Probability of a 50+ basis point rate cut is 1.4% [1] - Probability of a rate hike of 25+ basis points is less than 1% [1] Future Rate Cut Expectations - Probability of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026: - 50 basis points: 23% [1] - 75 basis points: 21% [1] - 100 basis points: 16% [1] - 125 basis points: 11% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest predictions from Polymarket indicate a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with a significant chance of rate cuts in the future [1] Group 1: January Interest Rate Predictions - Probability of maintaining current interest rates is 77% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 21% [1] - Probability of a rate cut exceeding 50 basis points is 1.7% [1] - Probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points or more is 1.3% [1] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Predictions - Probability of cumulative rate cuts of 75 basis points by 2026 is 24% [1] - Probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 19% [1] - Probability of a 100 basis point rate cut is 14% [1] - Probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 11% [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View **Likely Positive Factors** - Domestic factories are stocking up before the Chinese New Year, leading to a slight recovery in demand [3]. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel has narrowed to 4,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount has remained stable [3]. **Likely Negative Factors** - High inventory levels persist, and the supply glut remains unchanged [3]. - There are few inquiries in the nickel ore market, demand is sluggish, and prices have stabilized without a clear upward trend [3]. **Trading Advisory View** - It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the short - term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Data** **Nickel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel (SHFE) was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 2,160 yuan or 1.83% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 115,870 yuan/ton, down 1,920 yuan or 1.63% week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 116,060 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 116,290 yuan/ton, down 1,910 yuan or 1.60% week - on - week [3]. - LME nickel 3M was at 14,610 US dollars/ton, down 360 US dollars or 1.62% week - on - week [3]. - The open interest was 106,302 lots, down 5,283 lots or 4.7% week - on - week; the trading volume was 106,815 lots, down 17,698 lots or 14.21% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 33,939 tons, down 825 tons or 2.37% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan or - 373.33% week - on - week [3]. **Stainless Steel Futures** - The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0% week - on - week; the closing price of the first - nearby contract was 12,500 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the closing price of the second - nearby contract was 12,625 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.28% week - on - week; the closing price of the third - nearby contract was 12,695 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.36% week - on - week [4]. - The trading volume was 69,415 lots, down 32,225 lots or 31.71% week - on - week; the open interest was 64,258 lots, down 21,427 lots or 25.01% week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts was 61,378 tons, down 241 tons or 0.39% week - on - week; the basis of the main contract was 570 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 21.28% week - on - week [4]. **Nickel Spot** - Jinchuan nickel was at 121,400 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan or 0.21% day - on - day; imported nickel was at 116,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day; 1 electrolytic nickel was at 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; nickel beans were at 118,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.25% day - on - day; electrowon nickel was at 116,450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan or 0.26% day - on - day [4]. **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory was 56,848 tons, up 1,499 tons; LME nickel inventory was 252,852 tons, down 240 tons; stainless steel social inventory was 947,600 tons, up 700 tons; nickel pig iron inventory was 29,346 tons, down 879 tons [6]. **3.2 Market Trends and Charts** - The report includes charts showing the historical trends of nickel futures prices (both domestic and LME), stainless steel futures prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel supply and inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profitability, and stainless steel production and inventory [7][9][11]. **3.3 Industry Chain Analysis** **Upstream Nickel Ore** - The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore (1.5% FOB) is presented in a historical trend chart, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports is also shown [16]. - The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average landed duty - paid price of Indonesian nickel pig iron (Ni≥14%) are presented in historical trend charts [17]. - The seasonal production volume of nickel iron in China and Indonesia is shown in charts [18][19]. **Downstream Nickel Sulfate** - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, the profitability of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profitability of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate are presented in historical trend charts [21][23][24]. - The monthly production volume of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown in charts [25]. **Stainless Steel** - The seasonal profitability of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production volume, and inventory are presented in historical trend charts [27][29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity market has recovered, and urea opened higher but closed lower before strengthening intraday. The spot prices showed a mixed trend, and the market prices were affected by the futures trend, with low - price orders improving. The current supply - demand logic is relatively in a tight balance, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term. From a macro perspective, there is no obvious boost, but the micro - fundamentals are resilient, and it is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The commodity market has recovered, and urea opened higher and then moved lower, showing an intraday upward trend. The spot prices were mixed, and low - price orders improved. The upstream plants had both shutdowns and restarts, and the gas - based plants were still gradually reducing production. The daily production data did not significantly decrease, and the downstream winter - storage fertilizers and export orders maintained a stable demand increase. The compound fertilizer factories' new orders were not selling well, and their profits were squeezed. The start - up load is expected to continue to rise this week but has limited room for growth. The current inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,650 yuan/ton, opened higher and moved lower, and finally closed at 1,645 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The trading volume was 142,791 lots, a decrease of 7,855 lots. Among the top twenty positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,426 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,340 lots. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 10, 2025, was 11,477, a decrease of 249 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot prices were mixed, and the market prices were affected by the futures trend, with low - price orders improving. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market prices increased today, and the futures closing price also rose. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis for the January contract was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 82.01% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons or 4.36% from the previous week [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 10, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.41 days or 5.58% from the previous period [10]

Price Adjustment - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open at 24:00 on December 8, following the "ten working days" principle. The last adjustment on November 24 saw domestic gasoline and diesel prices decrease by 70 yuan/ton and 65 yuan/ton respectively [1] CPI and PPI Data - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI and PPI data for November on December 10. Huachuang Securities predicts that the CPI year-on-year growth rate will rebound from 0.2% last month to around 0.7%, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices. The food price index in November is expected to rise by 1.1% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 2.7% in the same month last year, which was the lowest in the past decade [2] Financial Data Release - In addition to CPI and PPI, financial data for November, including new loans, M2, and social financing, is also expected to be released next week. Zhejiang Merchants Securities estimates that new RMB loans will increase by 300 billion yuan in November, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 6.4%. Social financing is expected to increase by 2.2 trillion yuan, down approximately 342 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate drop of 0.1 percentage points to 8.4%. M2 growth is projected at 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points, while M1 growth is expected to be 5.3%, down 0.9 percentage points [3] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting next week. As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13%. Additionally, there is a 64% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January, a 9% chance of maintaining the rate, and a 27% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut [4] Stock Unlocking - Next week, 40 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of nearly 40 billion yuan based on Friday's closing prices. Ten companies have lock-up shares valued at over 1 billion yuan each, including Ningbo Ocean, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [5] New Stock Opportunities - Five new stocks are set to be issued next week, including one from the Shanghai main board, one from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, one from the Shenzhen main board, and two from the Growth Enterprise Market. The specific issuance dates are December 8 for Youxun Co. and Nabichuan, December 9 for Yuanchuang Co., and December 12 for Xihua Technology and Tiansu Measurement [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 85,730.00 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.75% [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Recent U.S. employment data shows conflicting signals, with new jobs added at 119,000, significantly exceeding expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.4%. This presents challenges for the Federal Reserve's decision-making ahead of the December meeting [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side issues include a shortage of copper concentrate (processing fee at -40 USD/ton) and delays in the resumption of mining operations in Indonesia. Demand from emerging sectors like electric vehicles and AI is supporting the market, countering weak demand from real estate and home appliances [1] - Market participants are cautious in their purchasing despite suppliers holding prices firm [1] Inventory Levels - Domestic refined copper inventory is not decreasing as expected, with social inventory reported at 194,500 tons as of November 20, showing a slight increase of 0.07 tons and remaining at a high level not seen in three years [1] Overall Market Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December remains low, with weak fundamentals and increasing inventory levels contributing to a bearish outlook for copper prices. Attention will be on the gradual release of U.S. economic data [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall supply growth of the Shanghai lead market is limited, demand growth faces certain resistance, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, so the probability of continued consolidation increases. Today, the Shanghai lead price remained volatile with little movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level of 16,980 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,014.5 dollars/ton, down 12.5 dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest was 82,766 lots, down 4,281 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,236 lots, up 573 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 42,790 tons, up 4,208 tons; the LME lead inventory was 264,475 tons, down 325 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,310 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 95 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.39 dollars/ton, up 0.82 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,970 yuan, up 124 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,160 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 71.37%, up 1.83 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.87 tons, up 0.04 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 9,873.21 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the Shenwan industry index of batteries was 2,060.82 points, down 58.5 points. The monthly automobile production was 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [2] Industry News - There are major developments in the Russia - Ukraine situation, with a secret 28 - point peace - talk framework being discussed. The US authorities cancelled the October non - farm payroll report, and the November report is rescheduled to December 16. The Fed may further shrink its balance sheet. There are differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts. The US trade deficit in August narrowed significantly. The Trump administration is considering suspending semiconductor tariffs, and the White House is blocking a bill to restrict AI chip exports. The US Attorney General will release the Epstein case file in 30 days [2] View Summary - On the supply side, the supply of domestic lead concentrate for primary lead remains tight, while the production of recycled lead is expected to increase. On the demand side, the demand for automotive lead - acid batteries weakens in November, but the overall operating level will gradually recover. The high Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots and tariff issues suppress the growth of demand. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the Shanghai lead market is likely to continue to consolidate [2]