据路透社19日报道，三井住友银行市场营业部外汇交易团队负责人纳谷巧指出，如果中国 今后进一步实施旅行或出口限制等措施，将会对日本经济造成更大影响，并可能提高日元的 下行压力。 来源：央视新闻、中国新闻网 据日本《朝日新闻》21日报道，最近日元对美元持续快速贬值，日本财务大臣片山皋月在 21日的讲话中称， 目前日元对美元的走势"非常单向且急速"，她对此深表忧虑。彭博社21 日报道称，片山皋月这番表态是日元贬值以来的"最强烈警告"。 据报道，日元兑美元汇率的回落给日本经济带来压力，尤其是进口商品的成本上升影响了普 通家庭和中小企业。 片山皋月称日本政府正密切关注这种波动，若形势继续恶化，日本将 根据日美两国此前签署的联合声明采取干预措施。 21日，日本政府敲定规模约为21.3万亿日元的综合经济对策。熊野英生表示，在当前日本 处于通胀状态下进行财政刺激，将产生反作用 。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生： 这不是通缩时的财政刺激，是通胀时 的财政刺激，会导致日元贬值加剧、物价上升。 长期利率上涨将使日本经济进一步降温 由于增加的税收无法填补支出缺口，日本政府不得不依赖追加发行国债的财政运营方式。而 这 ...

0:00 / 1:25 21日，日本政府敲定规模约为21.3万亿日元的综合经济对策。熊野英生表示，在当前日本处于通胀状态下 进行财政刺激，将产生反作用。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生：这不是通缩时的财政刺激，是通胀时的财政刺激，会 导致日元贬值加剧、物价上升。 长期利率上涨将使日本经济进一步降温 由于增加的税收无法填补支出缺口，日本政府不得不依赖追加发行国债的财政运营方式。而这将带来长期 利率的上涨，从而导致日本经济进一步降温。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生：长期利率上升将使经济降温，反面作用也会增大。这 正是财政来源难以确保、不得不依赖发行国债带来的弊端。 央视新闻消息，日本首相高市早苗的涉台错误言论破坏中日关系政治基础，严重恶化中日人员交流氛围。 有日本经济专家表示，若中国游客数量出现锐减，日本将出现2万亿日元以上的损失。 日本第一生命经济研究所首席经济分析师 熊野英生：如果这样的中日关系持续1年以上，即使没有2.6万亿 日元，也将减少2万亿日元以上的中国游客消费，对于日本的旅游产业，特别是地方经济将造成巨大冲 击。 日本政府进行财政刺激将产生反作用 编辑：邓晞 责编： ...

格隆汇11月21日｜日本首相高市早苗内阁批准了疫情以来最大规模的额外支出，将在经济方案中部署资 金用于解决选民的不满，但这可能会让密切关注国家财政状况的投资者感到不安。日本内阁府周五表 示，刺激计划包括17.7万亿日元（1120亿美元）的一般账户支出。这些支出很可能通过追加预算来筹 集，比前任首相一年前推出的计划规模高出27%。整个刺激方案总价值达21.3万亿日元，措施涵盖物价 补贴和重点领域投资支持等。其中最大的一部分资金将用于物价补贴，总额11.7万亿日元，包括一项在 截至3月底的三个月向每户家庭发放7000日元的燃气和电力补贴，预计政府耗资5000亿日元。此外，高 市还将拨款4000亿日元，用于向每个儿童发放20,000日元的现金补助，并拨出2万亿日元用于支持各地 区。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

日本内阁今日批准了一项规模达21.3万亿日元（约1354亿美元）的经济刺激方案，包括17.7万亿日元的一般性支出，远超去年13.9万亿日元的水平，成为自疫情以来日本最大规模的财政刺激。此外，计划还包括2.7万亿日元的减税措施。知情人士透露，新增政府债券发行规模仍有待敲定，但预计将超过去年用于类似计划的6.69万亿日元。日本内阁计划最早于11月28日批准补充预算案，并力争在年底前获得国会通过。 ...

Is there real progress in this economy right now. I know we can look at these numbers and find some modicum of stability, but is a real progress, real growth. Well, this is also a very important question remain, because if we think about what was the reason why we had a slowdown over the summer, it was likely because of the turmoil that came after Liberation Day.But Immigration Day is now eight, nine months ago, and things are gradually getting better on the trade for at least us. More clarity. And we've, o ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic turmoil in Japan, marked by a 1.8% annualized decline in GDP for Q3, is attributed to a combination of internal economic stagnation and external geopolitical tensions, particularly involving China [1][6]. Economic Performance - Japan's Q3 GDP contracted by 1.8%, marking the first decline in six quarters [1]. - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.22%, and the yen depreciated to 155.38 against the dollar, the lowest since January [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose to 3.28%, the highest level since 1999 [1]. Market Reactions - The Japanese financial market experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currency, leading to significant sell-offs [1]. - The Tokyo stock market indices fell for four consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop of over 2700 points [1]. Geopolitical Factors - The tensions between Japan and China, exacerbated by Prime Minister Kishi's provocative statements, have led to increased market volatility and investor caution [1][4]. - Japan's reliance on China for imports is significant, with over 50% of certain product categories sourced from China [4]. Investment Climate - The ongoing depreciation of the yen is seen as a result of high fiscal stimulus and military expansion policies under Kishi, which are viewed as contradictory and unsustainable [3]. - International investors have been shorting the yen, taking advantage of the interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. [2]. Economic Dependencies - Chinese tourists are crucial to Japan's economy, contributing approximately 30% to tourism revenue; a decline in their visits could significantly impact GDP [5]. - Japan's economic structure is heavily reliant on imports from China, with critical goods such as electronics and fertilizers being predominantly sourced from there [4]. Risk Mitigation - Analysts suggest that Kishi should retract her controversial statements to mitigate economic risks and stabilize market conditions [6]. - The potential for further economic decline in Japan is anticipated in Q4 due to existing structural issues and geopolitical uncertainties [6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a favorable investment outlook for risk assets in 2026, particularly recommending a bullish stance on stock assets, especially in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index expected to reach 7,800 points by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that by 2027, the Chinese economy will begin to recover, driven by food planning recommendations, improved US-China trade relations, and forecasts for the US and global economies. Key drivers for this recovery include technological innovation and consumer spending [1][4]. - The US economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026-2027, with AI investments boosting short-term economic performance and long-term productivity. The annualized profit growth for the US stock market is projected to reach 15% from 2025 to 2027 [1][7]. - The Chinese real GDP growth rate is forecasted to be 7.8% in 2026, with nominal GDP growth at 4.1%. By 2027, real GDP growth is expected to slightly slow to 4.6%, while nominal GDP growth rebounds to 4.8% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - 2026 is viewed as the final year of China's battle against deflation, with significant progress expected by 2027. The US economy is projected to show resilience, particularly due to AI-related investments [3][4]. - The Asian economy's growth drivers are expected to shift from technology sectors to non-technology sectors, especially in domestic demand and consumption [14][15]. Stock Market Insights - The US stock market is favored, with expectations of broad market gains rather than reliance on a few large companies. Japan's stock market is also viewed positively due to favorable fiscal policies, while European stocks are expected to benefit from a strong US economy [7][8]. - Emerging markets are relatively underweighted, but India, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia are highlighted as favorable investment opportunities [2][7]. Policy Recommendations - To address challenges in the Chinese real estate market, potential policy measures include subsidizing mortgage rates, learning from Hong Kong's experience in removing purchase restrictions, and enhancing social feedback mechanisms [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for aggressive macroeconomic support policies to achieve significant valuation recovery in the Chinese stock market, which is expected to stabilize around a price-to-earnings ratio of 12-13 times [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics driven by liquidity and the potential limitations of this bull market, drawing parallels with Japan's past market behavior during the 1990s [2][14][58]. Market Performance - Since the policy shift on "September 24," the domestic market has rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 47% and 50% from their lows, respectively [2]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a dynamic PE of 11.6, which is above the historical average, indicating that certain high-growth sectors may no longer be considered cheap [2][6]. Valuation Comparisons - While the Hang Seng Index appears cheaper than the S&P 500's dynamic valuation of 22.3, this comparison lacks context regarding profitability and liquidity conditions [6][8]. - The article highlights that the median PE of leading Chinese tech companies is 17.8, which is higher than their median net profit margin of 9.6%, suggesting potential overvaluation in some sectors [6][8]. Economic Indicators - Post-August, domestic demand indicators have weakened, and recent financial credit data supports the view that the credit cycle may be turning downward in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The article notes that risk premiums in traditional sectors like finance and real estate have dropped below historical averages, while new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are stabilizing around historical means [9][11]. Historical Context: Japan's Bull Markets - The article analyzes Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, which were characterized by significant government stimulus and external economic trends, yet ultimately faced limitations due to structural issues and market sentiment [14][58]. - Each of Japan's bull markets was initiated by substantial fiscal stimulus, with the first round starting in 1992, leading to a 54% rebound over 12.8 months [19][33]. Investor Behavior - During Japan's first bull market, individual investors' participation surged, while foreign investors' share declined, indicating a shift in market sentiment [28][30]. - The second bull market saw a similar pattern, with individual investor enthusiasm waning as foreign investor participation increased [40][42]. Conclusion and Implications - The article concludes that while liquidity can drive market rallies, without substantial improvements in the underlying economy, these rallies may face ceilings [58]. - It suggests that to break through current market limitations, structural policy changes focusing on technology and income expectations are necessary, rather than relying solely on traditional fiscal measures [67].

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Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently at 154.7300, with a slight increase of 0.12%, reflecting limited reaction to Japan's economic contraction in Q3, which was less severe than expected [1] - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, indicating insufficient economic momentum and leading to lowered expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [1] - The Japanese government is promoting a new round of fiscal stimulus to alleviate rising living costs, suggesting continued expansionary fiscal policy and a likely maintenance of loose monetary policy, which may hinder the yen's ability to gain interest rate advantages [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY maintains a bullish structure in the short term, with clear resistance levels identified [2] - A strong rebound occurred from the 153.60 level, breaking through the 154.45-154.50 resistance zone, indicating potential for further upward movement if the 155.00 psychological level is breached [2] - The support level at 154.00 remains intact; however, a drop below 153.60 could shift the short-term bias to bearish, targeting the 152.10 range [2]