根据Makoto Sakurai的分析，在植田和男于2028年4月结束的五年任期内，利率最终目标将指向1.5%。如 果美国经济增长稳健且支撑日本经济，同时国内通胀保持在央行2%的目标之上，日本央行可能在2026 年4月开始的下一财年内进行两次加息。 然而，若美国经济前景的不确定性加剧，且日本国内通过膨胀显著放缓，央行可能会选择在2026财年仅 加息一次，并将后续行动推迟至2027年。Makoto Sakurai表示，虽然央行可能希望恢复大约每六个月加 息一次的节奏，但目前似乎对来自政府行政部门的阻力感到担忧，这或许解释了植田和男此前沟通中表 现出的模糊态度。 此前，日本央行在上周五将利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，这是三十年来未见的借贷成本水平，标志着日本 在结束数十年大规模货币宽松政策方面迈出了标志性的一步。尽管植田和男表示政策利率距离中性利率 区间的下限（估算为1.0%-2.5%）仍有距离，但他并未明确说明还需多少次加息才能达到中性水平。 日本央行前审议委员Makoto Sakurai周一表示，在日本央行行长植田和男至2028年初的剩余任期内，央 行可能会进一步加息三次，将利率推升至1.5%。他同时警告称 ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts predict that the US stock market will remain tense in 2024 due to investor concerns about missing out on AI gains and fears of a potential bubble, with volatility expected to continue until 2026 [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 14% growth in Chinese corporate earnings in 2024, which could boost stock market performance, with a potential 10% valuation re-rating and a projected 38% increase in the Chinese stock market by 2027 [1] - JPMorgan expects the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates to address concerns over the weak yen, predicting two rate hikes in 2024, reaching a policy rate of 1.25% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Nomura's report indicates uncertainty regarding the specific level that would trigger intervention by Japanese authorities, but bold actions may be imminent as the yen strengthens [2] - Danske Bank analysts suggest that the euro may strengthen against the dollar in the medium term due to anticipated Fed rate cuts and stable ECB rates, with a narrowing gap in real interest rates benefiting the euro [2] Group 3 - CICC emphasizes the importance of policy measures to boost consumption, noting that the macroeconomic backdrop has weakened consumer recovery, but signals of support for domestic demand could lead to a turnaround [3] - China Merchants Bank reports that Japan's interest rate hike may exert pressure on global financial conditions, with a potential long-term impact on liquidity and bond markets [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the need to focus on changes in consumer structure for long-term investment, with an emphasis on new products, technologies, channels, and markets [5][6] Group 4 - CITIC Securities anticipates a mild reduction in policy rates in 2026, with a potential decrease of 10 basis points in one to two instances, which could stabilize bank net interest margins [7] - CITIC Securities continues to favor the AI computing sector, noting strong demand for computing power as AI models evolve [8] - CITIC Securities reports that the US CPI has unexpectedly cooled, which may lead to an upward revision of Fed rate cut expectations, positively impacting precious and industrial metal prices [9] Group 5 - China Securities expects listed insurance companies to achieve double-digit growth in core premium income and value in 2026, driven by asset reallocation and a favorable equity market [10] - Huatai Securities suggests continuing to position for a spring market rally, focusing on sectors like AI, batteries, and consumer goods that are expected to improve [11]

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

In this article, we will look at the 10 Best Non-US Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds.On December 9, Michelle Gibley, Director of International Equity Research and Strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, released her 2026 Outlook for International Stocks and Economy. She sees international markets as well-positioned for another strong year, driven by robust earnings, economic growth, and attractive valuations compared to the S&P 500. Gibley notes 2026 to be the year of broadening out and ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 贝森特则借此机会，在论文和公开评论中详细阐述了他对美联储的制度性批评——实质上是为特朗普对利率政策的抱怨构建了一个政策框架。他仍口头上 强调美联储独立性的重要性，但随后明确表示，他对独立性的定义与普遍认知并不一致。 在近期一篇学术期刊论文中，贝森特指出，美联储已偏离其原有角色。在2007-2009年金融危机及2020年疫情期间，美联储发明了多种工具，极大地扩大 了其在经济中的作用，却缺乏足够的民主合法性和监督。 贝森特认为，这一点在美联储的资产负债表上体现得最为明显——11月初其规模已达6.6万亿美元。美联储将危机时期的资产购买计划重新定位为又一项 刺激政策工具，这让房主和股权持有者等资产所有者受益。 美联储的资产负债表在此前的危机时期膨胀 作为这一批评的一部分，贝森特写道，美联储一直高估财政刺激的效果，同时低估减税和放松监管对经济增长的作用。他表示，危机后及2010年《多德- 弗兰克法案》通过后，美联储的职责进一步扩展到金融监管领域，甚至涉及性别平等和气候等议题。 就像所有其他形式的机构信誉一样，央行独立性在华盛顿已不再流行。其主要支持者和捍卫者正逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing renewed focus following a price surge above $63 per ounce, indicating strong upward momentum and potential for further increases [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note a significant increase in bullish sentiment as the gold-silver ratio briefly surpassed 80 but could not hold, leading to renewed interest from buyers [1][2]. - The recent price increase has prompted market participants to adjust their stop-loss levels, reflecting high confidence in the silver market's future performance [3][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The ongoing global electrification and expansion of AI infrastructure are driving industrial demand for silver, while supply constraints remain unaddressed [4]. - The supply-demand gap is becoming a crucial factor in driving silver prices, reinforcing the market's belief in a long-term upward trend [4]. Valuation Perspective - Despite silver prices stabilizing above $63, they remain relatively low compared to gold prices, with historical gold-silver ratios typically ranging between 50 and 60 [4]. - Analysts predict the gold-silver ratio may decline to around 40, which could accelerate silver price increases, indicating that its relative value has not been fully realized [4]. Future Outlook - There are expectations that silver prices could reach $75 per ounce by 2026, with potential price adjustments providing attractive buying opportunities [2][5]. - Factors such as anticipated loose monetary policy, balance sheet expansion, and ongoing fiscal stimulus are expected to boost demand for hard assets, including precious metals [2][5]. - A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has lowered policy rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, enhancing expectations for further monetary easing [2][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The combination of multiple driving forces suggests a solid upward logic for precious metals, with silver offering a more attractive value proposition compared to gold [5]. - The potential for silver prices to rise further remains significant, with long-term investment value still worthy of attention in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

Group 1 - The silver price has surpassed $63 per ounce, attracting significant attention in the precious metals market, with potential for further increases [1] - The recent trend indicates a shift in capital back into the silver market, with $48 per ounce seen as a re-entry point for many investors, laying the groundwork for future price increases [1] - The core driver of rising prices is the expanding real demand, particularly due to the acceleration of global electrification and increased metal material needs in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a long-term tight supply and increasing demand, which is a key reason for the strong price performance [3] - Despite silver prices reaching $63, it remains undervalued compared to gold, with historical gold-silver ratios typically between 50 and 60, and some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to around 40 [3] - Retail investment demand remains resilient, providing additional support to the market, while recent policy rate cuts have contributed to a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential declines in real yields and resistance in the dollar, contribute to a long-term bullish outlook for silver prices [4] - The silver market is currently in a phase of value reappraisal, indicating that the upward trend in silver prices may not be over and warrants ongoing attention [4]

Group 1 - Mizuho Financial Group's CEO expresses optimism about the investment banking business due to Japan's largest fiscal stimulus and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2] - The acquisition and integration of Greenhill & Co. is yielding positive results, allowing Mizuho to pursue large merger and acquisition deals again [1] - Mizuho ranks 22nd globally in merger advisory, with significant involvement in high-profile deals, including a $9.4 billion acquisition of Skechers USA Inc. [2] Group 2 - Major Japanese banks, including Mizuho, are expected to achieve record profits due to higher loan income from increased benchmark interest rates [3] - Mizuho has raised its profit forecast for the fiscal year ending in March, marking the second upward revision this year [3] - The Japanese stock market, particularly financial stocks, is performing well due to strong fiscal stimulus and rising shareholder return initiatives [3] Group 3 - The new Prime Minister's fiscal policies are expected to clarify Japan's economic growth path, despite concerns over rising public debt [4] - Mizuho anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this month, aligning with market expectations [4] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is projected to fluctuate between 145 and 150 yen, with the current rate at 155.64 yen [4] Group 4 - Mizuho is negotiating to acquire a stake in Avendus Capital Pvt. in India and aims to expand its presence in the Chinese market, focusing initially on the debt capital market [5] - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned securities firm in China, having received regulatory approval [5] - Mizuho has appointed a former Daiwa Securities executive to lead its new entity in China, indicating a commitment to this challenging market [5]

来源：金十 金融评论家们似乎深信，新任美联储主席将是一位超级鸽派的特朗普忠实拥趸，意在不考虑经济基本面 情况下一味大幅降息。然而，市场并不买账。 鲍威尔的美联储主席八年任期将于明年五月结束，市场普遍预期他将被特朗普的首席经济顾问凯文·哈 塞特取代。特朗普上周也暗示了这一点，称他将人选名单缩小至一人，随后在白宫的一场活动中介绍哈 塞特为"潜在的美联储主席"。 哈塞特无疑是特朗普的忠诚支持者。但市场价格清楚地表明，交易员并不认为由哈塞特领导的美联储会 像特朗普所暗示的那样大幅放松货币政策。 事实上，根据利率期货市场的定价，到明年年底，市场预期中的宽松幅度勉强只有75个基点。这仅仅是 三次25个基点的降息——很可能其中两次会在鲍威尔离任前进行，在2026年下半年新主席上任后仅有一 次。 对此可以有两种解读。 要么是市场低估了明年下半年进一步宽松的风险，这意味着风险资产目前也被低估了；要么是期货市场 判断正确，即美联储明年不会表现得特别鸽派，从而限制了政策推动股市上行和美元下行的空间。 综合考虑所有因素，后一种情况看起来更有可能。近期路透社一项调查的共识中值预测显示，标普500 指数明年年底目标为7490点，仅比上周 ...

应习文 电 话：+852 3728 8180 Email：xiwenying@cmbcint.com 相关报告： 主要大类资产走势： | | 2025-12-05 | 周变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美国国债收益率10Y | 4.14 | 11.5 bp | | 美国国债收益率2Y | 3.56 | 8.8 bp | | 日本国债收益率10Y | 1.94 | 13.2 bp | | 日本国债收益率2Y | 1.02 | 4.4 bp | | 德国国债收益率10Y | 2.75 | 6.0 bp | | 德国国债收益率2Y | 2.07 | 4.0 bp | | 标 普500指 数 | 6870.40 | 0.31 % | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23578.13 | 0.91 % | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 47954.99 | 0.50 % | | 日 经225指 数 | 50491.87 | 0.47 % | | 伦敦富时100指 数 | 9667.01 | -0.55 % | | 巴 黎CAC40指 数 | 8114.74 | -0.10 % | | 德 国DAX指 数 | 24 ...