Core Viewpoint - Moody's indicates that the results of the Japanese Senate elections may hinder the government's efforts to advance fiscal consolidation in the post-pandemic era [1] Group 1: Election Impact - The ruling coalition led by Shigeru Ishiba may need to negotiate with other parties to legislate, increasing the likelihood of implementing fiscal expansion policies to meet the demands of opposition parties [1] - The government may increase spending to alleviate cost-of-living pressures due to public concerns over inflation [1] Group 2: Tax Policy and Credit Rating - The ruling coalition still holds sufficient power to avoid significant adjustments to consumption tax policies [1] - The demands from opposition parties vary widely, from temporary limited tax cuts to complete abolition, with the impact of consumption tax adjustments on credit ratings depending on their scope, magnitude, and sustainability [1] Group 3: Fiscal Risks - Moody's has previously warned that if fiscal deficits continue to widen, leading to a further deterioration of the already high debt burden, it may trigger a risk of rating downgrades [1]

Group 1 - Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen to 1.599%, the highest level since 2008, driven by concerns over fiscal spending ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [1] - The 30-year Japanese government bond yield reached a record 3.21%, while the 20-year yield hit its highest level since 1999 [1] - Market expectations of fiscal expansion policies due to the Senate elections are contributing to the rise in long-term and ultra-long-term bond yields [1][3] Group 2 - Discussions among Japanese politicians regarding lowering the consumption tax are intensifying ahead of the Senate elections, which may lead to increased economic volatility [3] - The current inflation rate in Tokyo decreased to 3.1% in June from 3.6% in May, but remains high, potentially prompting the Bank of Japan to adjust its inflation expectations and accelerate its next interest rate hike [3] - The supply-demand imbalance in the Japanese bond market may worsen, particularly as life insurance companies' capacity to absorb new supply has declined [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan announced plans to slow the pace of government bond purchase reductions starting April next year, maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% due to increasing economic risks [4] - The Bank of Japan reiterated its plan to reduce monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds by approximately 400 billion yen (about 2.76 billion USD) each quarter until March 2026, consistent with previous guidelines [4]

Group 1 - The article focuses on the trends of credit spreads in investment-grade Chinese dollar bonds, aiming to identify investment opportunities and effectively manage risks [1][2] - The development of the Chinese dollar bond market is closely linked to the evolution of credit spreads, influenced by various factors such as domestic and international monetary policies, regulatory frameworks, and economic conditions [3][4][5] Group 2 - The Chinese dollar bond market has experienced several phases: initial exploration (1986-2009), slow development (2010-2014), rapid growth (2015-2017), volatile development (2018-2021), and stagnation and adjustment (2022-present) [4][5][6][8][9] - The rapid growth phase saw a significant increase in issuance, with 1,121 bonds issued and a total financing amount of $461.54 billion from 2015 to 2017, peaking in 2017 with $231.7 billion [7] Group 3 - The article identifies seven main factors influencing credit spreads in investment-grade Chinese dollar bonds, including the state of the Chinese economy, RMB exchange rates, USD swap points, the US stock market, US market interest rates, credit default risks, and the supply of Chinese dollar bonds [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] - The analysis indicates that a strong Chinese economy can improve corporate profitability and reduce credit risk, leading to narrower credit spreads [12] Group 4 - A multi-variable regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between credit spreads and the identified factors, revealing six significant variables that explain the credit spread variations effectively [21][22] - The final regression model indicates that credit spreads have narrowed from 200 basis points in 2015 to 72 basis points, reflecting a historical low [20] Group 5 - Predictions for 2025 suggest that credit spreads for investment-grade Chinese dollar bonds will continue to narrow or remain stable, driven by improved economic conditions and reduced credit risk premiums [26][28] - The model forecasts specific values for various influencing factors, including a projected credit spread of 89.44 basis points in February 2025 [28]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the "Beautiful Act" and its implications on the U.S. economy and fiscal policy. Core Insights and Arguments - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to significantly expand the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next decade, particularly between 2025 and 2028, with 2027 projected to be the peak year for deficit increase. Post-2028, the expansion rate is expected to slow down as spending cuts are implemented [1][5][9]. - Without considering tariff impacts, the U.S. deficit rate may remain above 6% for the next 30 years, potentially exceeding 10% by 2055 [1][5]. - Tax reduction policies have varying impacts across income groups, benefiting high-income individuals the most while low-income groups see minimal benefits. For the lowest 20% income bracket, the negative effects of tariffs may outweigh the positive effects of tax cuts, leading to an overall negative outcome [1][6]. - Historical data indicates that tax cuts typically boost the stock market and significantly enhance corporate profitability. For instance, after the tax cuts implemented in 2018, most sectors experienced positive profit growth, particularly in energy, finance, and industrial sectors [1][7]. - There are notable differences between the Senate and House versions of the "Beautiful Act." The Senate proposes a $5.8 trillion increase in the deficit budget, including $3.8 trillion for the extension of the TCJA, while the House version suggests a $2.8 trillion increase. The Senate's proposed spending cuts are significantly lower than those in the House version [1][8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The timeline of the Trump fiscal plan shows an initial increase in deficit and spending during his term (2025-2028) to stimulate the economy, with a significant reduction in deficit expected after the 2029 transition to a new president [1][9]. - The U.S. fiscal expansion policy is influenced by various rules, such as the Paygo principle and the Byrd rule, which require new legislation not to increase the deficit over ten years. However, past presidents have often favored expanding fiscal spending to boost the economy, suggesting a continued trend of deficit increase in the future [1][10]. - Trump's tariff policy plays a crucial role in the advancement of the tax reduction plan. Tariff revenues are a significant supplement to U.S. fiscal income, and any inability to collect these tariffs could increase fiscal pressure. Despite challenges, Trump may still implement tariffs through other means, ensuring that the tax reduction plan's outcome remains largely unaffected [1][11]. - The likelihood of the tax reduction plan passing is bolstered by the reconciliation process, requiring only 51 Republican votes in the House for approval. Current dynamics suggest that as long as opposition votes are limited, the plan can proceed [1][12]. - Balancing future tax reductions with increased deficits will require navigating existing regulations while addressing practical operational needs. The trend indicates a continued push towards fiscal expansion, with potential adjustments in tariff policies to maintain economic stability [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing a tight market with active trading and significant liquidity, reflecting a structural contrast in credit expansion and economic policies in China [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 15, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF is priced at 100.54 yuan, with a turnover rate of 25.28% and a trading volume of 1.521 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [2]. - The ETF has reached a new high in scale at 6.028 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 59.9751 million, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [3]. - Over the past five days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day inflow of 286 million yuan, totaling 515 million yuan, averaging 103 million yuan daily [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The ETF has recorded a maximum drawdown of 0.89% since inception, with a recovery period of 26 days, indicating resilience in performance [3]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has a historical monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-month holding period [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - As of April 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with M2 balance growing by 8%, indicating a robust monetary environment [2]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down by about 4 basis points from the previous month, maintaining a historically low level [2]. - The current economic policies are focused on expanding fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment, with potential for further monetary easing [2].