Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain high. However, the opening of positions by Guangzhou Futures Exchange and speculative investors may cause price fluctuations, especially for silver. It is recommended to wait and see or mainly buy call options in the short - term [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Information - **Price Changes on December 18, 2025**: London gold spot rose 0.1% to $4333.58 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $66.43 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4363.80 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $66.58 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) rose 0.1% to 980.5 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) rose 0.1% to 15521 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: Gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.8 yuan per gram on December 18, with a - 2.2% change from the previous day. Silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 26 yuan per kilogram, with a - 23.5% change [5]. Position and Inventory Information - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of December 2, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 261331 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 43771 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 217560 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory decreased 0.01% to 91716 kilograms on December 18, 2025, while SHFE silver inventory increased 0.03% to 912164 kilograms [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Market Index Information - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06 on December 18, 2025, with a 0.01% change. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.29% to 3.49%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.16% [5]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On December 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.33% to 980.5 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 3.44% to 15512 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US November inflation rate was 2.7%, lower than market expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8%, the lowest since March 2020. The data increased expectations of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank remained unchanged and sent a hawkish signal, and the US dollar index was under pressure. Geopolitical tensions also supported precious metal prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Heraeus Precious Metals indicates that gold, silver, and platinum group metals prices may experience a downward trend in the first half of 2026, following previous highs driven by strong demand and macroeconomic factors [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Precious metal prices are expected to undergo consolidation after significant increases, with gold likely to have the strongest support due to robust central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [1] - Industrial demand weakness and recession risks pose significant downward pressure on platinum group metals, while silver's price may be more volatile due to industrial headwinds [1][2] - The report anticipates that the global market will face both economic and geopolitical challenges, with major economies like the US and Europe experiencing slower growth and persistent inflation affecting monetary policy [1] Group 2: China's Role and Future Demand - China remains a key factor in global demand trends, with economic stimulus measures potentially supporting industrial activity, although adjustments in photovoltaic policies may slow silver demand growth [2] - Initiatives related to green hydrogen and fuel cell technology in China's 14th Five-Year Plan may drive long-term demand for ruthenium and iridium [2] - The precious metals market may be influenced by slowing economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing transformations in the automotive industry, with low real interest rates and sustained inflation supporting investment demand [2]

12月11日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至14665.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合 约报14400.00元，涨幅2.44%。 美联储议息会议降息落地，目前银价已经进入加速上行阶段，短周期小时级别的技术形态破位都可能成 为白银短期见顶的时点，关注沪银上方14500元/千克一线压力位，策略上建议择机进行止盈，沪金主力 合约参考运行区间940-989元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间13232-14500元/千克。 新湖期货：后续贵金属可能仍偏强 五矿期货 银价已经进入加速上行阶段 新湖期货 后续贵金属可能仍偏强 铜冠金源期货：预计短期银价或维持偏强运行 美联储议息会议落地，鲍威尔发言比预期更加鸽派提振贵金属价格走势。白银供需持续偏紧依然在发酵 束，且COMEX白银12月交割风险尚未完全缓和，银价再创历史新高，预计短期银价或维持偏强运行， 金银比价还会持续修复。 五矿期货：银价已经进入加速上行阶段 沪银期货主力涨超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 预计短期银价或维持偏强运行 供给面紧缺叠加年末交割压力，基本面紧张推动白银走强，不过金银比下行至68附近，同样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals industry, represented by Heraeus, predicts a downward trend in gold, silver, and platinum group metals prices in the first half of 2026, following a period of rapid price increases that pushed gold and silver to historical highs and platinum group metals to multi-year highs [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - Heraeus expects that gold prices will have the strongest support due to robust central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions, while silver may experience more volatility due to industrial headwinds [1] - The report indicates that after significant price increases, precious metals prices may need to realign and consolidate [1] - The potential for short-term price increases exists, but a weakening momentum is anticipated to lead to price corrections [1] Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The global market is expected to face simultaneous economic and geopolitical challenges, with major economies like the US and Europe experiencing slowed growth, persistent inflation, and fiscal imbalances that could impact monetary policy [1] - Central banks are likely to maintain low real interest rates, which may support investment demand for precious metals while suppressing industrial demand [1] - Geopolitical risks are expected to remain high, and there is uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on platinum group metals [1] Group 3: China's Role in Demand - China is identified as a key factor in global demand trends, with economic stimulus measures potentially supporting industrial activity, although adjustments in photovoltaic policies may slow silver demand growth [2] - The new five-year plan (2026-2030) in China includes initiatives to promote green hydrogen and fuel cell technologies, which could positively impact the long-term demand for ruthenium and iridium [2] - The precious metals market may be influenced by slowing economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing transformations in the automotive industry [2]

贺利氏贵金属全球交易负责人HenrikMarx表示："经历如此幅度的价格上涨后，贵金属价格很可能需要 重新定位和盘整。得益于强劲的央行需求和有利的宏观经济环境，黄金预计仍有最坚实的支撑。由于工 业逆风，白银的走势可能更为波动。铂金市场看似依旧紧张，但赤字可能缩窄。与此同时，随着纯电动 汽车的市场份额提升，钯金可能面临过剩扩大。" （编辑：张漫游 审核：朱紫云 校对：翟军） 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海 北京报道 12月9日，贺利氏集团发表观点认为，金、银和铂族金属价格在2026年上半年很可能呈现下行趋势。此 前的涨势曾将黄金和白银推至历史高位，也令铂族金属价格创多年新高，不过涨幅过快过高。虽然价格 短期内仍可能上行，但一旦动能减弱，预计贵金属价格将迎来盘整。持续的央行购金、持续的通胀以及 较低的实际利率等关键因素可能支撑价格。然而，工业需求疲软和衰退风险对铂族金属构成较大的下行 压力。 ...

【宏观消息】 周三晚间，美元指数收跌。经济数据方面，美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，远逊于预期，创2023 年3月以来最低水平，进一步印证美国劳动力市场正在走弱，强化了市场对美联储降息的紧迫性预期。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 国信期货：短期来看，贵金属在连续上涨、尤其是白银创出历史新高后，技术上面临获利了结与高位震 荡的压力。然而，疲软的就业数据与美联储官员鸽派的言论共同巩固了政策转向预期，或为价格提供下 行支撑。预计市场将进入高位整固阶段。技术面上，COMEX白银的重要支撑参考57美元/盎司附近，若 企稳则有望再次挑战60美元关口。 货币政策层面，美国财长贝森特公开表示"经济某些领域已出现疲软，需要降息"，其言论与潜在下任美 联储主席人选哈塞特的鸽派立场形成呼应，持续为贵金属营造宽松的货币环境预期。 【白银期货行情表现】12月4日，沪银主力暂报13424元/千克，跌幅1.42%，今日沪银主力开盘价13691 元/千克，截至目前最高13826元/千克，最低13322元/千克。 地缘政治方面，克里姆林宫澄清普京并未拒绝美国方案，美乌高级代表将于周四会面，紧张局势虽未升 级但谈判进程 ...

11月28日晚间至29日凌晨，国际金价持续走高，现货黄金、COMEX黄金价格均重新站上4200美元/盎司。截至12月1日14时15分，现货黄金报4233.28美元/ 盎司，COMEX黄金期货同步上涨，报4266.6美元/盎司。 国内市场跟进上涨，实时金价小程序显示，截至12月1日13时23分，水贝黄金价格为957元/克，周大福、周生生、周大生（002867）、老凤祥等品牌首饰 金克价超1300元，最高克价达1336元/克；资本市场上，黄金ETF及黄金股ETF也同步迎来上涨，资金配置热情持续释放。 | 品牌黄金价格 | | 最新: 2025.12.01 13:23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 名称 | 价格 | 涨跌 | | 12.01 | 水贝黄金 | 956.9 元/克 | 实时 | | 12.01 | 周大福 | 1328元/克 | 持平 | | 12.01 | 周生生 | 1336元/克 | 涨6 | | 12.01 | 六福珠宝 | 1326元/克 | 持平 | | 12.01 | 我幸堂 | 1326元/克 | 持平 | | 12.01 | 潮宏基 | ...

Core Insights - The World Bank predicts that precious metal prices will reach historical highs by 2026, following a 41% increase this year [1] - Gold prices surpassed $4,300 per ounce in October, while silver reached $54 per ounce, before experiencing a slight decline [1] - The demand for gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing central bank purchases and safe-haven demand, while silver prices are anticipated to rise further due to industrial demand from renewable energy technologies [1][3] Gold Market - Gold demand is projected to grow by 10% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong investment inflows, including from gold ETFs and central bank purchases [2] - Central banks' gold purchases have reached record levels, with the amount since 2022 being more than double the average from 2015-2019 [2] - Gold prices are expected to increase by approximately 42% in 2025, marking the largest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Silver Market - Silver prices surged to around $54 per ounce in mid-October, supported by safe-haven demand and strong industrial needs [3] - Industrial applications account for over half of silver demand, with expectations for continued growth driven by renewable energy and semiconductor production [3] - Silver prices are forecasted to rise by about 34% in 2025 and an additional 8% in 2026, despite slow supply growth [3] Platinum Market - Platinum prices have increased significantly due to production falling to multi-year lows, with automotive demand expected to grow moderately [3] - The supply of platinum is anticipated to recover slightly, mainly due to increased mining output in South Africa, but will still remain below demand [3] - Platinum prices are expected to rise by 29% in 2025 and approximately 4% in 2026 [3] Overall Market Outlook - The outlook for precious metals is skewed towards the upside, with potential upward pressure from escalating geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [4] - Downside risks include a hawkish stance from U.S. monetary policy and a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, which could suppress investment demand [4]

"美联储的降息节奏仍存在不确定性。"赵复初分析道，根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降 息25个基点的概率为64.1%，远低于此前的90%。短期内美国就业下行和通胀风险依然存在，且经济下 行压力不大，降低了12月继续降息的急迫性。美国ISM制造业PMI连续8个月处于萎缩区间，需求与就 业持续走弱，但服务业景气度尚可；ADP就业数据超预期反弹，一年期通胀预期持续反弹，且持续高于 美联储目标水平，这些因素都压制了降息空间。 "另外，尽管美国政府'停摆'即将结束，但通胀和就业数据需要较长时间才能正常公布，这导致美联储 无法获得足够的数据来判断是否降息，叠加政府支出或持续释放6月以来短债融资的7000亿美元资金， 在美元流动性充裕的情况下，滞胀风险持续上升，美联储降息节奏可以适当放缓。预计美联储接下来更 倾向于用其他政策工具对资金面进行呵护，而非机械性降息。"赵复初称。 本周，金银价格强势反弹。11月11日，伦敦金现货价格重回4140美元／盎司一线，伦敦银现货价格重新 站上51美元／盎司。内盘方面，截至下午收盘，沪金期货价格涨超2%，沪银期货价格涨超3%。 对此，东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，黄金市 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6th, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.79% to 917.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.99% to 11,427 yuan/kilogram [3]. - The public court debate of the US Supreme Court, where judges generally questioned the legality of tariffs, increased market uncertainty. Coupled with the alleviation of the impact of the tight dollar liquidity, it boosted the recovery of precious metal prices. However, the US economic data is stable, and the strong performance of the service - sector PMI in October highlights the resilience of the US economy, which still poses a certain impact on the December interest - rate cut expectation. Therefore, precious metal prices may remain volatile in the short term, with limited upside space, and are expected to gradually stabilize and maintain range - bound fluctuations. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation by buying on dips [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainty persists, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. Global central banks' gold purchases continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. It is recommended that long - term investors allocate on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Tracking of Internal and External Markets of Gold and Silver - On November 6th, 2025, the prices of London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, AU2512, AG2512, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 3,996.53 dollars/ounce, 48.36 dollars/ounce, 4,005.80 dollars/ounce, 48.20 dollars/ounce, 917.80 yuan/gram, 11,427 yuan/kilogram, 915.50 yuan/gram, and 11,408 yuan/kilogram respectively. Compared with November 5th, their respective increases were 0.8%, 1.4%, 0.8%, 1.6%, 0.6%, 1.3%, 0.6%, and 1.3% [3]. Spread/Ratio Price Tracking - On November 6th, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.3 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 19 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) spread was 4.95 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external (TD - London) spread was - 922 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio was 80.32, the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio was 83.11, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.90 yuan/gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 25 yuan/kilogram. Compared with November 5th, their respective changes were - 13.5%, 18.8%, - 8.0%, 1.6%, - 0.7%, - 0.9%, 3.6%, and 4.2% [3]. Position Data - As of November 5th, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1,038.63 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15,150.70957 tons, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 332,808 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 66,059 contracts, the non - commercial net long positions were 266,749 contracts, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 72,318 contracts, the non - commercial short positions were 20,042 contracts, and the non - commercial net long positions were 52,276 contracts. Compared with November 4th, their respective changes were 0.00%, - 0.11%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% [3]. Inventory Data - On November 6th, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 87,816 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory was 639,940 kilograms. On November 5th, the COMEX gold inventory was 37,881,682 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 481,457,974 troy ounces. Compared with the previous day, the changes in SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver inventories were 0.00%, - 2.47%, 0.00%, and - 0.19% respectively [3]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On November 6th, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09. On November 5th, the US dollar index was 100.16, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.63%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17%, the VIX was 18.01, the S&P 500 was 6,796.29, and the NYWEX crude oil was 59.64. Compared with the previous day, their respective changes were - 0.05%, - 0.05%, 1.40%, 1.71%, - 5.21%, 0.37%, and - 1.31% [3].