随着下周12月10日美联储议息会议临近，市场不仅仅聚焦于板上钉钉的降息举措，华尔街资深策略师指出，美联储可能即将宣布一项重大的资产负债表扩张计 划。 近日，前纽约联储回购专家、美银利率策略师Mark Cabana预测， 除了广泛预期的降息25个基点外，美联储主席鲍威尔将在下周三宣布每月购买450亿美元国 库券（T-bills）的计划，这一购债操作将于2026年1月正式实施， 旨在通过向系统注入流动性，防止回购市场利率进一步飙升。 Cabana在报告中警告称，虽然利率市场对降息反应平淡，但投资者普遍"低估"了美联储在资产负债表方面的行动力度。他指出，目前的货币市场利率水平表明 银行体系的准备金已不再"充裕"，美联储必须通过重启购车据来填补流动性缺口。与此同时，瑞银交易部门也给出了类似的预测，认为美联储将在2026年初开 始每月购买约400亿美元的国库券，以维持短期利率市场的稳定。 Cabana详细拆解了这一数字的构成：美联储每月需要购买至少200亿美元以应对其负债的自然增长，此外还需要额外购买250亿美元以扭转此前的"过度缩 表"带来的准备金流失。 他预计，这一力度的购债将至少持续6个月。 这一声明预计将包含在 ...

随着下周12月10日美联储议息会议临近，市场不仅仅聚焦于板上钉钉的降息举措，华尔街资深策略师指 出，美联储可能即将宣布一项重大的资产负债表扩张计划。 近日，前纽约联储回购专家、美银利率策略师Mark Cabana预测，除了广泛预期的降息25个基点外，美 联储主席鲍威尔将在下周三宣布每月购买450亿美元国库券（T-bills）的计划，这一购债操作将于2026 年1月正式实施，旨在通过向系统注入流动性，防止回购市场利率进一步飙升。 Cabana在报告中警告称，虽然利率市场对降息反应平淡，但投资者普遍"低估"了美联储在资产负债表方 面的行动力度。他指出，目前的货币市场利率水平表明银行体系的准备金已不再"充裕"，美联储必须通 过重启购车据来填补流动性缺口。与此同时，瑞银交易部门也给出了类似的预测，认为美联储将在2026 年初开始每月购买约400亿美元的国库券，以维持短期利率市场的稳定。 这一潜在的政策调整发生在美联储领导层即将更迭的关键时期。随着鲍威尔任期接近尾声，以及市场对 Kevin Hassett可能接任美联储主席的预期升温，下周的会议不仅关乎短期流动性，更将为未来一年的货 币政策路径定调。 前纽约联储专家预测 ...

Report Information - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][18][22][25] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan, Ji Xianfei, Wang Rong, Zhang Zaiyu - Contact: Wang Zongyuan Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Gold**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded [2]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - **Copper**: The reduction in inventory supports the price [2]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline [2]. - **Tin**: The price has fallen from a high level [2]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2]. - **Alumina**: There is still fundamental pressure [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - **Nickel**: The pace of inventory accumulation has slightly slowed down, with short - term disturbances from the macro - environment and news [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is under pressure and oscillating at a low level, but the downside potential is limited [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 932.56, with a daily decline of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 933.90, with a night - session decline of 0.66% [4]. - **Macro News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, saying there is still room for interest - rate cuts "in the near term", and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 12046, with a daily decline of 0.81%, and the night - session closing price was 11967.00, with a night - session decline of 1.34% [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85,660, with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the night - session closing price was 86180, with a night - session increase of 0.61% [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 5,193 tons to 49,790 tons, and the inventory of London Copper decreased by 2,900 tons to 155,025 tons [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached a four - month high [9][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22390, with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the closing price of the London Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2992, with a decline of 0.38% [12]. - **News**: Trump's "appointee" to the Fed, Stephen Miran, said the September non - farm payrolls report was "obviously dovish" [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [14]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17165, with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the closing price of the London Lead 3M electronic disk was 1989, with a decline of 0.80% [15]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 601 tons to 29955 tons, and the inventory of London Lead decreased by 1800 tons to 262850 tons [15]. - **Macro News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value reached a four - month high [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 292,030, with a daily decline of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 292,990, with a decline of 0.16% [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 31 tons to 5,991 tons, and the inventory of London Tin decreased by 50 tons to 3,065 tons [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21340, with a decline of 190; the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2713, with a decline of 19; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20595, with a decline of 185 [22]. - **News**: The "third - in - command" of the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish stance, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut exceeded 70% during the session [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 114,050, with a decline of 1,330; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, with an increase of 5 [25]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel - mining area, and China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25][26]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both +1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a context of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and overall it will maintain a volatile trend. The bond market is expected to recover with oscillations [6]. - For precious metals, the Fed's asset - liability expansion is in the early "information transmission" stage, and there is still much room for interest rate cuts. It is recommended to wait for the price of gold and silver to pull back and stabilize before going long on silver [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper has strong price support, aluminum may strengthen after inventory reduction, zinc is expected to be weak in the short - term, etc. [12][14][17]. - For black building materials, steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short - term but may have a marginal inflection point later. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillatory range in the short - term [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading, and oil is recommended for a low - buy and high - sell range strategy [53][55]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different strategies. For example, for live pigs, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage first and then short after a rebound; for eggs, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [78][80]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was 18.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Fusion New Energy released a nuclear fusion procurement project with a cumulative amount of over 20 billion yuan. Zhongxing International received a large number of urgent orders, and the storage industry supply has a gap. Haixia Innovation's stock price had abnormal fluctuations and will be suspended for verification [2]. - **Strategy View**: After the previous continuous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology growth is the main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was 1864.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 1.72%. The central bank conducted a net injection of 16.31 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a context of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and overall it will maintain a volatile trend. The bond market is expected to recover with oscillations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.04%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.17%. COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices. Fed officials' dovish statements strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, supporting the prices of gold and silver in the short - term [7]. - **Strategy View**: The Fed's asset - liability expansion is in the early "information transmission" stage, and there is still much room for interest rate cuts. It is recommended to wait for the price of gold and silver to pull back and stabilize before going long on silver [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, the US stock market fell, and copper prices oscillated and pulled back. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US government reopened, but there are geopolitical headwinds. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the copper price has strong support. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 85,800 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,650 - 10,900 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The large increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventory dragged down the aluminum price. The LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum main contracts fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is fluctuating, and overseas inventory is low. The aluminum price has strong support. If domestic inventory can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after oscillations. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,550 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.15%. The LME zinc 3S fell. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly. The zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but the zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit was damaged [15][17]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore is still in short supply during the refineries' winter stockpiling period. The supply of zinc ingots has decreased marginally, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has slowed down in terms of accumulation. The LME market's zinc ingot warehouse receipts are slowly increasing. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.88%. The LME lead 3S fell. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead ore inventory increased slightly, but the lead concentrate TC continued to decline, and the waste battery inventory increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic lead raw material is still in short supply. The primary and secondary smelting profits are good, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has improved marginally. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased marginally. The lead price is in a weak oscillatory state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price maintained a weak performance. The spot market's premium was stable. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price accelerated its decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The decline in the nickel price is due to fundamental pressure. The refined nickel inventory has been increasing since October, and the nickel iron price has been falling since November. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. If the nickel iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops sufficiently, consider going long. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.37%. The upstream tin concentrate price fell. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for the tin price [20]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong with oscillations. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The five - mine steel union's carbonate lithium spot index rose 4.16%. The LC2601 contract rose 8.97% [22]. - **Strategy View**: Consumption continues to be boosted, and the supply and demand of products are tight. The contract increased its positions significantly on Monday, and the long - short game is intense. It is recommended to pay attention to the production scheduling of lithium - battery materials and cells, the change of the main positions, and the atmosphere of the equity market. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2601 contract is 93,200 - 98,300 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 0.18%. The overseas Australian FOB price was stable, and the import was at a loss. The futures inventory was unchanged, and the ore price fell [23]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply pattern, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.28%. The spot price was stable, and the raw material price was stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [25]. - **Strategy View**: The market supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, market confidence is weak, and the demand is weak. The cost support is insufficient, and the stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The casting aluminum alloy price continued to pull back. The weighted contract's position decreased, and the warehouse receipt increased. The domestic mainstream area's ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has support, and the demand is average. It is expected that the price will follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts rose. The spot price increased. The rebar's registered warehouse receipt decreased, and the hot - rolled coil's increased [30]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price increase is mainly due to short - covering by bears. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. The price is likely to continue weak oscillations in the short - term but may have a marginal inflection point later [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract rose 2.07%. The spot price was 792 yuan/wet ton. The Ximangduo iron ore project was put into production, but the output increase this year is limited [32]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas iron ore shipment has rebounded, and the iron ore demand has been supported marginally. The high inventory suppresses the price. The iron ore price will operate within an oscillatory range in the short - term [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract fell 0.29%, and the soda ash main contract rose 0.41%. The glass enterprise's inventory increased, and the soda ash enterprise's inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: The glass supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The soda ash supply is high, and the demand is average. The glass price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the soda ash price will continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On November 17, the black - sector varieties rebounded, and the position decreased. The manganese silicon main contract rose 0.77%, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose 1.38% [38]. - **Strategy View**: The black - sector's decline in the previous period has released market bearish sentiment. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectation is positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the market sentiment inflection point and the corresponding price inflection point. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore situation; for ferrosilicon, the operability is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.67%, and the polysilicon main contract fell 2.57%. The industrial silicon supply is expected to decrease, and the polysilicon production is expected to decrease [42][45]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial silicon supply and demand may be in a "double - weak" situation, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The polysilicon supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price will continue to oscillate widely [44][46]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rebounded. The typhoon affected the rainfall in the Thai production area. The Shanghai Exchange's natural rubber November warehouse receipt is about to expire. The tire factory's operating rate is neutral, and the inventory has increased slightly [48][50][51]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take a long - biased short - term trading strategy and enter and exit quickly. It is recommended to partially build a position for the RU2601 long and RU2609 short hedge [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures rose 0.59%. The Chinese crude - oil inventory decreased. The gasoline, diesel, and total refined - oil inventories decreased [54]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell range strategy [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price in Taicang decreased, and the 01 contract decreased. The port inventory is high, and the overseas start - up rate is high [56]. - **Strategy View**: The port high inventory suppresses the price. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: The Shandong urea spot price was stable, and the 01 contract rose. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [57]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic demand lacks support, and the supply is high. The new export policy has improved the market atmosphere, and the urea price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene was stable, and the styrene price rose. The supply increased, and the demand increased slightly [58]. - **Strategy View**: The pure benzene spot price was stable, and the futures price rose. The styrene price may stop falling temporarily [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell, and the spot price decreased. The cost was stable, the supply was high, and the demand was weak [60]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose, and the supply and demand were both high. The port inventory increased [64]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is high, and the port inventory will continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell, and the supply and demand were both high. The inventory increased, and the processing fee decreased [66]. - **Strategy View**: The supply may increase in November, and the demand is difficult to boost. Pay attention to the opportunity of PXN increase driving PTA to strengthen in the medium - term [67][68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell, and the load decreased. The PTA load decreased, and the inventory increased [69]. - **Strategy View**: The PX load is high, and the PTA inventory is difficult to de - stock. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. Pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium - term [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [71]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has limited downward space, and the price is expected to maintain low - level oscillations [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory increased [73]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [75]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling. The breeding side was reluctant to sell, and the downstream stocking enthusiasm increased [77]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is excessive before the Spring Festival, and the future direction of the futures is to short on rallies. It is recommended to do reverse arbitrage first and then short after a rebound [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable with minor fluctuations

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding treasury bonds, the economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. - For precious metals, the upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. The Fed is about to enter the balance - sheet easing cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [8][9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly; aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation; zinc and lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have limited downside space; tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly; and the price trends of other non - ferrous metals also vary according to their fundamentals [11][13][15][16][18][20][21]. - In the black building materials sector, steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices are recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [33][36][38][40][43]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; crude oil is recommended for short - term observation; methanol, urea, and other products have different price trends based on their supply - demand and cost situations [56][58][59]. - In the agricultural products sector, for pigs, the strategy is to first conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound. For eggs, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound. The prices of other agricultural products also vary according to their fundamentals [80][82]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Important articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published in Qiushi Journal; the State Council executive meeting was held to promote consumption; many airlines announced free ticket refunds and exchanges; and the price of lithium carbonate may break through 150,000 yuan/ton if demand growth exceeds 30% next year [2]. - **Strategy View**: After a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of treasury bond futures contracts had different changes. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 800 - billion - yuan repurchase operation, and China's industrial added value in October increased by 4.9% year - on - year [5]. - **Strategy View**: The economic data in October showed weakness in both supply and demand, and the social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices fell. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion cycle is in the early stage, and gold and silver prices are not expected to peak [8]. - **Strategy View**: The upward drivers of gold and silver prices remain unchanged. It is recommended to go long on silver after the price pullback stabilizes [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic spot premiums increased [11]. - **Strategy View**: Copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic and overseas aluminum inventories had different changes, and the market trading was not good [14]. - **Strategy View**: Aluminum prices may strengthen further after consolidation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, and LME zinc inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined. Lead ore inventory increased slightly, and domestic lead inventory increased [17]. - **Strategy View**: Lead prices are expected to slow down their rise and enter an oscillating state [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fell sharply. Refined nickel inventory increased, and nickel - iron prices decreased [19]. - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices may have limited downside space, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. Tin ore supply was tight, and demand in emerging fields provided support [21]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Carbonate lithium prices declined. The price of lithium concentrate increased, and the inventory of lithium carbonate was at a low level [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in lithium - battery materials and battery production schedules [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. The basis was positive, and the inventory was stable [25]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell. The market supply was in excess, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to decline [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices had different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [32]. - **Strategy View**: Steel demand has entered the off - season, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term but may recover in the future [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices were unchanged. The overseas shipment volume decreased, and the demand increased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillating range, with the lower limit at 750 - 760 yuan/ton [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices also fell. The inventory of glass increased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased slightly [37][39]. - **Strategy View**: Glass prices are expected to be weak, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices declined slightly. The prices were in an oscillating range [41][42]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and beware of overseas sentiment fluctuations [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices also fell. The supply of industrial silicon decreased, and the demand for polysilicon decreased [45][48]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand and oscillate weakly. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant news [47][49]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated and declined. The opening rate of tire factories was neutral, and the inventory increased slightly [51][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term trading and partial hedging [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined product prices rose. The inventory of refined products had different changes [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended for short - term observation and to wait for the verification of OPEC's export behavior [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell. The port inventory was high, and the supply pressure was still there [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices fell slightly. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [61]. - **Strategy View**: Urea prices are expected to oscillate and build a bottom [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were unchanged, and styrene prices rose. The supply and demand of both had different changes [62]. - **Strategy View**: Styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [63]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose. The supply was in excess, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [65]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased slightly. The inventory increased [66]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short on rallies [67]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices were unchanged. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was expected to be weak. The inventory increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by PXN in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. The load was high, and the inventory was expected to increase slightly [70]. - **Strategy View**: It is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [72]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the inventory had different changes [73]. - **Strategy View**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [74]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. The supply pressure was high, and the demand increased slightly [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are expected to be affected by cost changes in the first quarter of 2026 [76]. Agricultural Products Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were expected to be stable in the south and decline in the north [78][79]. - **Strategy View**: First conduct reverse arbitrage and then short after a rebound [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable. The inventory was high, and the demand was recovering [81]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term is to short after a rebound [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. The global soybean supply decreased slightly, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory was large [83]. - **Strategy View**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Palm oil export decreased, and production had different changes. Domestic oil prices oscillated [85][86]. - **Strategy View**: Observe the production trend of palm oil and adjust the strategy accordingly [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices fell. Brazilian sugar production increased, and India allowed sugar exports [88]. - **Strategy View**: Wait for a rebound and then short [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated. The downstream demand was weak, and the domestic production was high [90][91]. - **Strategy View**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 13, gold and silver prices broke through strongly. Gold entered a trend - accelerating phase after breaking through $4200, and silver reached a new high. The rise was driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, data vacuum, and tight supply - demand patterns [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Key Information - President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The House voted to restart food aid, pay federal employees, and restore the air traffic control system [2]. - 80% of surveyed economists believe the Fed will cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to support the weak labor market [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain, expressing China's willingness to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with Spain [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: After breaking through $4200, gold entered a trend - strengthening phase, catalyzed by the reinforcement of interest rate cut expectations, data vacuum amplifying weak economic pricing, and the approaching inflection point of the balance sheet. Expectations of a December interest rate cut advanced, real interest rates declined, and the dollar's rebound was limited [3]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures main contract reached a new high, and London silver also rose. The rise was due to the return of interest rate cut trading, a clear path of balance - sheet expansion, and tight spot supply. High lease rates indicated a tight spot balance, and silver's relative elasticity to gold remained high [3]. Outlook - Attention should be paid to the release schedule of US employment and inflation data from September - October and the policy inclination of Fed officials' speeches. If the December interest rate cut path is confirmed and there are further balance - sheet expansion signals, precious metals will remain in an upward - trending macro window. The price ranges to watch are [4150 - 4320] dollars per ounce for London gold and [52 - 55] dollars per ounce for London silver [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The commodity index was 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2223.17, down 0.01% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 13, 2025, the precious metals index was 3445.50, with a daily increase of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 5.93%, a 1 - month increase of 1.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 55.73% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index was 1352.02, up 0.54% [46].

Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Caifu reported strong financial performance for Q3 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 4.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.65% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.74% [2]. - For the first three quarters, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.097 billion yuan, up 50.57% year-on-year, nearing last year's total [3]. Business Segments - The primary driver of revenue growth was the securities business, with net commission and fee income reaching 6.640 billion yuan, an increase of 86.79% compared to 3.555 billion yuan in the same period last year [3]. - Interest net income from margin financing and securities lending was 2.405 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 59.71% [3]. - As of Q3 2025, the scale of funds lent reached 76.578 billion yuan, a growth of 30.11% since the beginning of the year [3]. Balance Sheet - As of the end of Q3 2025, total assets amounted to 380.255 billion yuan, a 24.12% increase from the beginning of the year [3]. - The company actively financed on the liability side, with short-term financing bonds and short-term loans increasing to 27.250 billion yuan and 8.159 billion yuan, respectively, marking significant growth of 71.55% and 47.51% [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company maintains a "buy" rating, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 15.443 billion yuan, 17.682 billion yuan, and 20.124 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 33.08%, 14.50%, and 13.81% [4]. - Projected net profits for the same period are 12.815 billion yuan, 14.773 billion yuan, and 16.971 billion yuan, with growth rates of 33.35%, 15.28%, and 14.88% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.81 yuan, 0.93 yuan, and 1.07 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32.67, 28.34, and 24.67 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market has returned to being influenced by the Fed's monetary policy expectations. Powell's statement on the expansion of the balance sheet is a significant positive factor for gold and silver prices [1]. - The discussion on the balance sheet in the recent interest - rate meeting exceeded market expectations in the medium term. Although the balance - sheet reduction will end on December 1st, later than expected, Powell clearly stated that the Fed will expand the balance sheet again [2]. - After Powell's hawkish statement, the prices of gold and silver declined in the short term. The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The interest - rate meeting sent a signal that the December interest rate cut is still uncertain while strengthening the subsequent "interest rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy idea. In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.11% to 920.40 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.47% to 11448.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4031.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.70 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.11%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.53 [1]. - The key data of gold and silver on October 30, 2025, showed that the closing price of COMEX gold's active contract was 4038.30 US dollars/ounce, up 2.45% from the previous day; the trading volume was 24.25 million lots, down 13.72%; the position was 52.88 million lots, up 2.43%. The closing price of COMEX silver's active contract was 48.73 US dollars/ounce, up 3.08%; the position was 16.58 million lots, up 1.75% [6]. 3.2 Policy Information - The US Treasury Secretary responsible for the selection of the new Fed Chairman said that the final list will be submitted to Trump around Thanksgiving (late November) for selection, and the selection of the Fed Chairman will be completed before Christmas (late December) [1]. - The interest - rate meeting decided that the balance - sheet reduction will end on December 1st, later than market expectations. Powell clearly stated that the Fed will expand the balance sheet again, which is his first key statement on balance - sheet expansion in this interest - rate cut cycle [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the loose monetary policy cycle, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3].

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the cautious trading in the gold market, influenced by the upcoming US-China summit in Seoul and the potential impact on gold prices depending on the outcomes of trade negotiations [1] - If the trade talks do not yield significant progress, gold prices may find short-term support due to safe-haven demand; conversely, optimistic developments could lead to downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The market is currently at a crossroads, with factors such as a hawkish shift from Powell, strengthening of the dollar and US Treasury yields, and the end of quantitative tightening overshadowing any potential benefits for gold [1] Group 2 - Gold experienced significant volatility, initially rising nearly 2% to surpass the $4000 mark, reaching a high of $4029.90 per ounce, before reversing course following a hawkish statement from Fed Chair Powell [3] - The Fed's decision to lower rates by 25 basis points did not prevent gold from declining, as Powell's comments led to a drop to a low of $3916.56 per ounce, closing around $3930, reflecting a daily decline of approximately 0.57% [3] - The Fed's stabilization of bond holdings and potential resumption of balance sheet expansion in 2026 may support bond prices and lower yields, but the immediate impact of Powell's hawkish remarks has overshadowed these factors [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced the resumption of limited Treasury bond purchases, officially ending years of quantitative tightening (QT) policy, which is expected to stabilize bond holdings and slow monetary market tightening [2] - The plan includes maintaining a maximum of $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) per month without reinvestment, with all MBS maturity funds reinvested into Treasury bonds starting December 1 [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly cooled due to the Fed's hawkish stance, as indicated by comments from Fed Chair Powell [2] Group 2 - International silver is currently trading below $47.52, with a slight decline of 0.33% to $47.36 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the silver market shows strong fundamentals and potential for future price increases, with a target of $49.5 expected this week [2] - The previous strategy of buying silver around $46 remains unchanged, with expectations for continued bullish momentum [2]