今天A股市场缩量调整，截至收盘，多数宽基指数录得下跌。 此外，"要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求"的表述，也切中当前经济复苏堵点和市场预期堵点，预计能有效对冲外部环境的 不确定性，短期内，也有望对冲消除特朗普交易对市场信心的不利影响。 总之，此次会议表态相当超预期，不仅短期大涨无疑，也为A股本轮跨年行情的演绎进一步打开空间。 唯一的担忧，是开盘即大涨，比较安心的上车窗口关闭了。 回到今天的市场，调整主要源于对政策不确定性的担忧。重要会议召开在即，临近靴子落地，政策预期交易进入验证窗口。鉴于前期市场对政策 刺激存在提前交易，部分资金选择在靴子落地前撤离，即所谓"买预期、卖兑现"，市场情绪有所回落。 具体看，今天红利指数、大盘权重指数收涨；科创板、创业板和小盘股指数跌幅靠前。 红利风格仍有支撑，成长性风格出现明显回调，市场风险偏好有所回落。 收盘后，政治局会议通稿发布，表述相当超预期，港股和富时A50瞬间拉涨。A股，收盘太早了，明天大概率会有长阳。 回顾2024年，会议指出，"全年经济社会发展主要目标任务将顺利完成"，预示着今年5%左右的GDP增速目标能够达成，为市场关于今年经济增速 的博弈画上句 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive financial policy package by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to stabilize the market and expectations, following the spirit of the Politburo meeting on April 25 [1][2] - The PBOC announced a series of monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 0.1 percentage point cut in interest rates, indicating a systematic policy layout to address complex economic conditions [2][4] - The financial regulatory authorities emphasized the importance of long-term capital entering the market, with measures to support insurance funds and other institutional investors, aiming to stabilize and invigorate the capital market [4][6] Group 2 - The recent policy measures are seen as a response to the ongoing economic challenges, including the impact of tariffs and a declining manufacturing PMI, with a focus on both total easing and targeted support [2][3] - The collaboration among the PBOC, financial regulatory authorities, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reflects a strengthened policy coordination to boost market confidence and address systemic risks [4][6] - The market's reaction to the recent announcement was less pronounced compared to previous similar events, attributed to the context of ongoing policy measures and the current valuation levels of A-shares, which remain attractive for asset allocation [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the introduction of a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing market expectations, following previous measures taken in September 2024 [1] - The People's Bank of China announced ten measures, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, which are directly related to the real estate sector [1][2] - The reduction in the five-year and above housing provident fund interest rate from 2.85% to 2.6% represents a significant decrease, aimed at stimulating demand for housing [2] Group 2 - The financial regulatory authority plans to introduce eight incremental policies to support the stability of the real estate market, including new loan management methods for real estate development and personal housing [3] - The shift towards a new development model in real estate financing is necessary, as traditional policy measures are losing effectiveness in addressing current market conditions [3] - The focus on cash flow-oriented investment and financing models in real estate is emphasized, moving away from reliance on large-scale demolition and construction [4][5]

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行、金融监管总局和证监会共同介绍"一揽子金融政策支持 稳市场稳预期"有关情况。本次一揽子金融政策着力于五个方面，即稳市场、稳预期、扩内需、促科创、扶企 业。锚定上述目标，货币政策、金融监管政策和资本市场政策环环相扣、组合发力，兼顾稳定与发展，对实体 经济和资本市场提供全方位支持。 一、政策梳理：金融政策全方位发力 一是货币政策，包括三大类共十项措施。 总量上，如期落地全面降准降息，对已适用存款准备金率最低标准 的汽车金融公司和金融租赁公司的法准率阶段性调降至0，降息同时涉及逆回购利率、LPR、结构性货币工具 利率以及公积金贷款利率；结构上，新增"服务消费与养老再贷款"，创设"科技创新债券风险分担工具"，扩大 已有的"科技创新和技术改造再贷款"，合并两项支持资本市场的货币政策工具，旨在支持科技创新、扩大消 费、稳定股市。 表1：十项货币政策增量措施 | 三大类 | 政策意图 | 十项措施 | | --- | --- | --- | | 数量型 | 保持流动性 | 降低存款准备金利率 0.5pct，将向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿。 | | 政策 | 充裕 | 完善 ...

5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行发布会，"一行一局一会"齐聚再次释放了多个重磅利好信号，涵盖降息 降准，稳市场、稳预期、稳楼市，以及应对关税影响等多项具体举措。 此次发布会与以往相比有何不同？这些政策将如何影响A股市场？有业内人士认为，本次国新会信号积 极，A股有望延续4月上旬以来回稳态势，短期政策受益领域或有相对表现。 会议延续"预期管理"思路，更加重视资本市场 在此次新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席 吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 贝壳财经记者了解到，本次国新会推出包括降准降息、稳定市场以及支持消费、外贸、房地产、养老等 领域在内的一系列政策：包括央行推出三大类共十项措施；金融监管总局推出八项增量政策，稳楼市、 稳股市，支持外贸。证监会则表态"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"。 中信建投策略分析师夏凡捷认为，此次"一揽子金融政策"是贸易战和金融战背景下一次积极主动的政策 应对和预期引导，从释放流动性、纾困解难、稳定预期、支持科技等方面给予政策支持，有利于市场风 险偏好和流动性的进一步改善。 多部门合力推出政策组合拳，有利于应对全球 ...

所谓政策利率，在央行政策体系中是指公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率，目前水平是1.5%，这次下调到1.4%。经过市场化的利率传导，预计将带动贷款市场 报价利率（LPR）随之下行0.1个百分点。同时，也将通过利率自律机制引导商业银行相应下调存款利率。 每经记者｜刘嘉魁 每经编辑｜廖丹 5月7日，中国人民银行宣布推出一揽子货币政策措施，旨在稳定市场预期。其中，下调政策利率0.1个百分点和降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点是 两项重要举措。 其中，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）随之下行0.1个百分点。 专家预计，在降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点的带动下，接下来商业性个人住房贷款利率会有更大幅度下调。是现阶段推动房地产市场止跌回稳 的关键一招。 公积金与商贷利率"双降" 5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会。会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜宣布，下调政策利率0.1个百分点。 业内：降息降准是当前对冲外部波动最有力的手段之一 公积金与商贷利率双降，叠加存量房贷利率调整政策，形成"降息+降成本"组合拳。 自2019年LPR改革以来，5年期以上LPR累计下调125个基点，从4.85% ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is expected to continue its recovery post-holiday, with domestic stimulus policies entering the implementation phase, presenting a potential trend-following opportunity in the A-share market [1][7] - The S&P 500 index has seen a continuous rise for nine trading days as of May 2, marking the longest streak since 2004, largely due to easing global trade disputes and better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data [1][3] - The Chinese stock market sentiment index showed a slight improvement by the end of April, indicating a change in the trend of declining sentiment, with the A-share market expected to experience a recovery in sentiment post-holiday [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese economy's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1, with domestic demand and export support being key drivers, suggesting an improvement in economic growth momentum [4][6] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, indicating a faster implementation of fiscal and monetary policies to counter external shocks [6][7] - The A-share market's earnings expectations remain stable, particularly for large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50, suggesting resilience in the face of external pressures [5][7] Group 3 - The potential for capital outflow due to significant RMB depreciation highlights the importance of domestic stimulus policies to support demand resilience [2][6] - The offshore RMB's strength has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding by 1.74% on May 2 [2][3] - The market's trading logic may shift from earnings expectations to valuation levels as the earnings season concludes, with low PE/G ratios indicating subdued profit growth expectations [3][4]

文章提出，当前，实施更加积极的财政政策，要把握好几个方面的工作要求。 在节奏把握上，坚持蹄疾步稳，与各种不确定因素抢时间，已确定的政策和资金安排，能早则早、宁早 勿晚，以时不我待的精神抓好落实；尚未出台的政策，加紧研究准备，与相关部门做好沟通，一旦需要 适时推出，使政策实施与市场预期更加匹配、各方面更有获得感。 文章提出，凡事预则立，不预则废。当前，美国对所有贸易伙伴实施所谓"对等关税"正在持续引发全球 市场动荡，我国经济发展面临的不利影响加深，经济运行面临新情况新挑战，需要深入实施更加积极的 财政政策，有效对冲外部风险对我国经济的不利冲击。财政部门要深入贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神 和今年《政府工作报告》部署，聚焦高质量发展关键领域、薄弱环节，加强财税政策支持和资金保障， 精准施策、持续用力，充分释放财政政策效能。 （文章来源：证券日报） 在政策目标上，将经济社会发展目标作为有机整体统筹把握，加大超常规逆周期调节力度，提高赤字 率，保持必要的支出强度，同时大力优化支出结构，精打细算、有保有压，在多重目标中实现动态平 衡。今年赤字率按4%安排，比去年提高1个百分点，赤字规模达到5.66万亿元，比去年增加1.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].