Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the documents. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Fundamental factors such as decreasing production, increasing exports, and expected inventory decline to around 2.9 million tons will support the crude palm oil futures to effectively stand above 4,200 ringgit. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, mainly fluctuating around 9,200 yuan in the short term. After effective consolidation and standing above 9,100 yuan, there is a chance for the futures to follow and gradually launch an upward market [1]. - Soybean oil: The new guidance on the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit may increase the industrial use of US soybean oil, but this positive factor has been digested by the market. With the continuous listing of Brazilian soybeans, CBOT soybeans may decline. In the domestic market, Brazilian soybeans are being harvested and listed, and the market's price - holding mentality is weak. The spot soybean oil will continue to fluctuate with the market, and the basis quote will remain stable [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the external market and the inflow of long - position funds, the rapeseed oil futures price once reached 9,300 yuan. However, as the Spring Festival stocking ends, the terminal demand weakens, and the willingness of funds to chase the rise is insufficient. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand, and the far - month basis quote has significantly declined [1]. Apples - In the production areas, the stocking atmosphere of late - maturing Fuji apples in Gansu and Liaoning is good, and the de - stocking progress of the national apple inventory has accelerated. In the sales areas, the arrival volume of apples in Guangdong wholesale markets has increased significantly, but there is pressure on the daily digestion of the arrival volume. The market sentiment has warmed up, and the futures price has increased with positions. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking situation [4][8]. Red Dates - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in the 25/26 production season of red dates still exists. Traders are cautious in stocking, and downstream buyers purchase on demand. With the approaching suspension of logistics, the arrival volume in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market has decreased recently. The futures are still in the low - valuation range, and the registration volume of new - season red date futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is relatively small. The social inventory utilization rate is high, and the short - term de - stocking pressure is difficult to relieve. It is expected that the red date price will maintain a volatile bottom - building trend [10]. Pigs - The spot price continues to weaken, and the market's willingness to sell has also increased. The average daily slaughter volume in February will remain high. The slaughter profit is limited, and it is the traditional stocking peak before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival stocking intensity. The current fundamental positive factors are limited, and the game will increase. The spot price may have support later. The positive sentiment in the futures market yesterday was mainly due to the policy of strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the No. 1 Central Document, but the current loose pattern still exists. It is expected that the market will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [11]. Meal - The US soybeans maintain a range - oscillating pattern with limited phased drivers. The shipping from Brazil has accelerated, and the weather speculation in Argentina has decreased. The 3 - 5 spread has narrowed. The pre - festival stocking sentiment in the market is expected to gradually weaken, and the futures lack further drivers. Attention should be paid to the left - hand side changes [13]. Corn - In the Northeast, the grain sales have increased compared with the previous period, but the enterprises' replenishment is approaching the end, and the procurement demand is average, with prices running steadily and weakly. In North China, the number of arriving vehicles continues to increase slightly but is unevenly distributed in different regions, with prices rising and falling. On the demand side, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly but is still at a relatively low level, with a slight willingness to replenish inventory; feed enterprises have basically completed pre - festival stocking and mainly purchase on demand. In the short term, corn stocking is approaching the end, and the trading will gradually weaken, which will put pressure on prices. However, the relatively fast grain sales, the farmers' price - holding attitude, and the low inventory of the middle and lower reaches support the prices, and the overall price will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the subsequent grain sales rhythm and policy release intensity [15]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures have declined, and the market is concerned about supply - related news. Traders are closely watching the news from the annual Dubai Sugar Conference. It is expected that due to the decline in production, the global sugar supply may be more balanced in the 2026/27 season. Internationally, Brazil is approaching the end of the crushing season, which is in line with the previous estimates of institutions, and has less impact on the market. India's sugarcane crushing progress in the 2025/26 season has accelerated significantly, with the cumulative sugar production increasing by more than 20% year - on - year as of mid - January. Thailand's cumulative sugar production has decreased by about 12% year - on - year due to the white leaf disease and the delayed start of crushing, and the sugar production may have a slight downward adjustment space. It is expected that the raw sugar will maintain a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, the Spring Festival stocking is approaching the end, and the market news is dull. The current price is at the bottom - grinding stage. Although there is no positive driver in the market, the negative factors have been gradually realized. In the absence of new negative factors, the price decline is blocked. It is expected that the futures will more follow the overall macro - sentiment fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around the previous high of 5,300 [19][20]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures have slightly declined. The registration of warehouse receipts for delivery has put pressure on the near - month contracts, and traders are waiting for the weekly export sales report from the US Department of Agriculture. The US cotton listing inspection is approaching the end, and the inspection progress has slightly accelerated but is still slower than the same period last year. The weekly deliverable ratio has continued to decline slightly. The USDA export sales have significantly declined, but the shipping has entered the peak period. In the industry, the cotton price is still under pressure but also has support. The market buying power is strong, and the cotton consumption is not weak, so the support below the cotton price is still strong. On the demand side, the pre - festival inventory replenishment of textile enterprises has basically ended, the operating rate has slightly declined, and the rigid - demand procurement is cautious, with only a small amount of sporadic replenishment. The stocking rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the trading atmosphere has cooled down. However, the high commercial inventory has not loosened the spot. In the short term, the cotton price may oscillate in a wide range, and attention should be paid to the support strength around 14,500 [21]. Eggs - In February, the number of newly - laid hens is expected to continue to decrease due to the low - level replenishment in the previous period. The number of old - hen slaughters will also slightly decrease. The inventory of laying hens in production will continue to decline. However, due to the suspension of trading during the Spring Festival, a large amount of inventory may accumulate in the market, and the market will face great pressure to sell goods after the festival. On the demand side, the Spring Festival stocking has basically ended, and the demand has rapidly weakened, especially in the southern market. The oversupply and the enhanced market risk - control awareness have led to an increase in the inventory in the production and circulation links. It is expected that the main contract will maintain a weak - oscillating trend in the range [22][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8,510 yuan, up 0.59% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 is 8,086 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis is - 4, down 1.07%. The 05 - 09 spread is 56, up from 10 [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,100 yuan, down 0.44%. The futures price of P2605 is 9,094 yuan, down 0.48%. The basis is 2, down 66.67%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 2, down 3.70% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 10,044 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI605 is 9,243 yuan, up 0.30%. The basis is 801, down 0.99%. The 05 - 09 spread is - 15, down 18.75% [1]. Apples - The futures price of the main contract Apple 2605 is 9,594 yuan, up 1.15%. The price of Apple 2610 is 8,310 yuan, up 0.65%. The basis is - 1394, down 8.48%. The 5 - 10 spread is 1284, up 4.48%. The arrival volume in several wholesale markets has increased, and the national cold - storage inventory is 6.5405 million tons, down 4.21% [4]. Red Dates - The futures price of the main contract Red Dates 2605 is 8,905 yuan, down 0.17%. The price of Red Dates 2607 is 8,940 yuan, down 0.22%. The price of Red Dates 2609 is 9,095 yuan, down 0.22%. The 5 - 7 spread is - 35, up 12.50%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 190, up 2.56%. The warehouse receipts and effective forecasts total 3,829, down 0.18% [10]. Pigs - The futures price of the main contract Pig 2605 is 11,735 yuan, up 1.16%. The price of Pig 2603 is 11,150 yuan, down 0.09%. The 3 - 5 spread is - 585, down 32.95%. The main - contract position is 145,975 hands, up 58.25%. The warehouse receipts are 647, up 547.00%. The spot prices in different regions have different degrees of decline [11]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 3,100 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2605 is 2,723 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis is 377, up 1.07%. The warehouse receipts are 36,228, up 8.4% [13]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2,520 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of RM2605 is 2,247 yuan, down 0.09%. The basis is 273, up 0.74%. The warehouse receipts are 0 [13]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of Corn 2603 is 2,263 yuan, down 0.18%. The basis is 62, up 6.90%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 20, down 33.33%. The import profit is 223 yuan, down 1.84%. The position is 1,825,020 hands, down 2.85%. The warehouse receipts are 53,570, down 2.39% [15]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2603 is 2,510 yuan, up 0.04%. The basis is 242, up 0.83%. The 3 - 7 spread is - 71, down 4.41%. The starch - corn 03 spread is 247, up 2.07%. The position is 299,151 hands, up 0.37%. The warehouse receipts are 11,161, unchanged [15]. Sugar - The futures price of Sugar 2605 is 5,210 yuan, up 0.83%. The price of Sugar 2609 is 5,214 yuan, up 0.71%. The ICE raw sugar price is 14.63 cents per pound, up 2.59%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 4, up 60.00%. The main - contract position is 451,761 hands, up 0.06%. The warehouse receipts are 14,216, unchanged. The effective forecasts are 503, up 2.86% [19]. Cotton - The futures price of Cotton 2605 is 14,680 yuan, up 0.20%. The price of Cotton 2609 is 14,805 yuan, up 0.17%. The ICE cotton price is 62.30 cents per pound, down 0.80%. The 5 - 9 spread is - 125, up 3.85%. The main - contract position is 716,331 hands, down 0.22%. The warehouse receipts are 10,438, up 0.37%. The effective forecasts are 1,369, down 0.22% [21]. Eggs - The futures price of Egg 03 is 2,945 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.27%. The price of Egg 04 is 3,183 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.47%. The egg - producing area price is 3.57 yuan per catty, down 2.49%. The basis is - 83, down 11.71%. The 3 - 4 spread is - 238, up 2.86% [22].

研究中心能化团队 2026/02/04 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/01/2 8 801 2305 2290 2370 - 2275 2385 269 322 8 -55 - 2026/01/2 9 801 2300 2290 2375 - 2275 2385 271 322 -4 -55 - 2026/01/3 0 801 2275 2280 2378 - 2275 2385 268 323 -4 -55 - 2026/02/0 2 801 2237 2228 2385 - 2275 2385 268 323 -39 -37 - 2026/02/0 3 801 2225 2238 2385 - 2330 2385 - - - -45 - 日度变化 0 -12 10 0 - 55 0 - - - -8 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看来甲醇往上往下都难，MT ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the Iran conflict continues to escalate, MTO shows resistance with some plants shutting down. Methanol faces difficulties moving up or down, with MTO profit capping the upside. A bearish view or selling call options seems appropriate [2]. - For plastics, the market is oscillating, with stable spot prices and weak basis. The supply of standard products is growing, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is expected to face significant pressure in the future [2]. - For PP, the market is stable, with a weak basis. The overall inventory is neutral, and the balance sheet for 05 and later is expected to be slightly on the high side, requiring PDH maintenance or continuous exports to improve [3]. - For PVC, the basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low, and the long - term outlook remains poor due to weak real - estate demand [5]. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2267 to 2237, a decrease of 38 [2]. - Market Situation: The Iran conflict affects the market. MTO plants like Xingxing, Shenghong, and Luxi are shutting down or planning to reduce production, waiting for the situation in Iran to normalize [2]. Plastics - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 700 (except for February 2 when it was not provided). The华北LL price dropped from 6740 to 6730, a decrease of 100 [2]. - Market Situation: The market oscillates, with stable spot prices, weak basis, and changing regional price differences. The oil - and coal - based production profits are deteriorating, and the supply is expected to increase in the future [2]. PP - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the山东丙烯 price remained stable at 6370. The华东PP price dropped from 6670 to 6615, a decrease of 55 [3]. - Market Situation: The market is stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and the export volume has decreased slightly. Supply - side temporary maintenance plans have increased, and the overall inventory is neutral [3]. PVC - Price Data: From January 27 to February 2, the西北电石 price increased from 2450 to 2550, an increase of 50. The电石法 - 华东 price increased from 4720 to 4830, an increase of 50 [4][5]. - Market Situation: The basis has increased slightly, and the overall inventory level remains moderately high. The comprehensive profit is low. The short - term seasonal production recovery is underway, and long - term real - estate demand is weak [5].

2026 年 2 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转 弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6878 | -1.94% | 885291 | -7317 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -158 | | -154 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -41 | | -55 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6720 | | 6860 | | | | 东 华 | 6880 | | 7000 | | | | 华 南 | 6940 | | 7030 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货回落，上游前期库存转移，企业报价维持，代理开单及中游销售较弱。裕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The valuation of the log industry has an upward - driving force. The inventory of logs in China has reached a new low, and the daily average outbound volume has remained at a high level. The spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong regions have increased, and the downstream wood - square prices have also risen, which may lead to an increase in the cost of the lowest warehouse receipts in Shandong. However, in the long - term, there are no conditions for a significant unilateral upward movement, and the supply - demand structure contradiction is not prominent [1][2]. - The short - term trading logic is based on low inventory, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta, and the impact on New Zealand's log shipments, making it difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The long - term trading expectation is that the overall supply - demand structure is relatively stable, and the profit - making effect will adjust the inventory difference between regions [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 23, the national log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters (- 80,000), reaching a new low. The daily average outbound volume was 68,600 cubic meters (+ 2,000), remaining at a high level. In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine wood in Lanshan area increased to 1,100 yuan per cubic meter (+ 20). The price increase of downstream wood squares may drive up the spot price of radiata pine in Lanshan and the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. In the Yangtze River Delta, the prices continued to rise last week. From January 22 - 28, the number of log - shipping vessels from New Zealand decreased by 2. The external - market quotation remained at 112 US dollars [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market broke through the range and rose, but the trading volume was low, and the liquidity had not recovered. On Friday, it opened high and went high, breaking through the upper limit of the sideways - oscillation range and reaching a new high in nearly two months [8]. - **Basis, Calendar - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. For the calendar - spread strategy, the 3 - 5 positive spread should be exited and observed, as the follow - up delivery - related policies may be adjusted [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Past strategies included selling lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800 (proposed on December 25, with lg2603 - C - 800 taking profit and the put position moving to 775 on January 29); doing a 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower limit of the 03 - 05 range (proposed on January 17 and taking profit on January 26); and conducting range operations between 750 - 795 (proposed on January 24 and revised to 775 - 810 on January 30) [12]. - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis of different log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang on January 30, 2026 [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Factors affecting the market include low inventory, reduced Christmas - season shipments from New Zealand, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong, and rising prices of downstream wood squares in Lanshan. On the delivery side, the buyer's willingness to take delivery is low, and the seller's delivery cost is high. There are also changes in the delivery game in Chongqing, and Japanese cedar imports continue [17]. - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: After low - volatility oscillation this week, the market showed an upward trend on Thursday and Friday. The overall position remained low, around 10,000 lots, and the capital attention was not high [18]. - **Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure**: For the 3 - 5 calendar spread, it is recommended to exit and observe. In the short term, the 03 contract is stronger than the 05 contract, but the safety margin for further upward movement is insufficient [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta is around 810 yuan (+ 6), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, and in Shandong, it is around 800 yuan (+ 10), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyer's willingness to take delivery is around 760 yuan (+ 10) after a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price. When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [27]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously repaired. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta has significantly improved the recent profit [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From January 31 to February 9, it is expected that 9 vessels will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 168,000 cubic meters. As of January 23, the daily average outbound volume was 61,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 cubic meters. The demand exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures**: The closing price of the BR main contract on January 28th was 13,265, with a daily change of 220 and a weekly change not fully legible; the holding volume was 76,340, a daily decrease of 3,155 and a weekly decrease of 20,342; the trading volume was 514,932, a daily decrease of 234,887 and a weekly increase of 332,175; the warrant quantity was 28,220, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 1,300; the virtual - real ratio was 13.53, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 4; the butadiene rubber basis was -315, a daily decrease of 70 and a weekly increase of 105; the styrene - butadiene basis was -72 (illegible in original data), a daily decrease of 220 and a weekly increase of 5; the 02 - 03 spread was -75, a daily decrease of 35 and a weekly increase of 5; the 03 - 04 spread was 10, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 30; the RU - BR spread was 3,095, a daily decrease of 65 and a weekly decrease of 485; the NR - BR spread was -75, a daily decrease of 115 and a weekly decrease of 540 [4] - **Spot**: The Shandong market price was 12,950, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 1,100; the Transfar market price was 12,900, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 1,050; the Qilu ex - factory price was 13,000, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 1,000; the CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,520, with no daily change and no weekly change; the CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,785, a daily increase of 35 and a weekly increase of 35 [4] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 15, a daily increase of 380 and a weekly increase of 616; the import profit was 271, a daily increase of 149 and a weekly increase of 1,117; the export profit was 511, a daily increase of 113 and a weekly decrease of 729 [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot**: The Shandong market price was 10,525, a daily decrease of 225 and a weekly increase of 475; the Jiangsu market price was 10,450, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly increase of 600; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,600, a daily decrease of 200 and a weekly increase of 700; the CFR China price was 1,270, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 90 [4] - **Profit**: The carbon four extraction profit was not fully available in the data; the import profit was 319, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 95; the export profit was -1,035, a daily increase of 774 and a weekly change not fully legible; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 180 (illegible in original data), a daily increase of 350 and a weekly increase of 438; the ABS production profit data was not fully available; the SBS production profit was -1,130, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly decrease of 135 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - LLDPE futures prices are in a downward trend, with the L2605 contract closing at 6695, down 1.33%. Spot trading has weakened, but the spot remains relatively firm. The upstream inventory transfer is smooth, and the short - term liquidity of the spot has tightened. The profit of downstream products has been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The external market quotation has risen, and the long - term import profit has opened [1]. - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer link has weakened, and the profit of the PE ethylene and ethane process has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded, but the downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the basis is weak. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: The L2605 contract closed at 6695, down 1.33%, with a trading volume of 658,757 and an open - interest change of 3,981. The 05 - contract basis was - 95 (compared with - 135 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 28 (compared with - 29 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the north, it was 6,600 yuan/ton (down from 6,650 yuan/ton the previous day); in the east, it was 6,720 yuan/ton (down from 6,800 yuan/ton the previous day); in the south, it was 6,800 yuan/ton (down from 6,850 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. [Spot News] - The futures have continued to pull back. The upstream has pre - sold at low prices, and the middle and downstream have covered short positions recently. The inventory transfer is smooth, and the pressure is not high. The short - term liquidity of the spot has tightened, and the production of standard products has remained at a low level. The PE spot is still relatively firm, but the trading volume has decreased significantly after the market pull - back, and the strengthening of the basis is not as strong as before. The profit of downstream products has been compressed, and they are resistant to high prices. The external market quotation has risen, the long - term import profit has opened, and the import volume has increased. The downstream factories are mostly cautious and wait - and - see. Geopolitical intensification may support the strength of the US dollar market [1]. [Market Condition Analysis] - The price of crude oil at the raw material end has strengthened, the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has not been released, the ethylene monomer link has weakened, and the profit of the PE ethylene and ethane process has been repaired. The PE market has rebounded, but the trading volume is concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The demand for agricultural films in the near - end downstream has weakened, and the rigid demand for the packaging film industry has been maintained. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold goods has weakened. The upstream has sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, the factory inventory has decreased slightly, and the basis is weak. In terms of supply, Guangxi Petrochemical has gradually started production, the maintenance plan in January has decreased compared with the previous month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high production capacity and weakening demand [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Facing pressure from high inventory, slow - down in export growth, and policy changes, it may weaken further after potentially breaking through the 4000 - ringgit support. Domestic palm oil may also fall below 8500 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybean oil may oscillate narrowly. In the domestic market, although it is in the Spring Festival stocking season, the supply of soybeans and soybean oil is sufficient, and the spot basis quotation will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by macro - sentiment and international oil price drops, as well as news from Canada, the rapeseed oil futures market is under pressure [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by the strong US dollar and demand concerns but supported by a strong export sales report. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton may face short - term adjustments, but the overall bullish trend remains [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures continue to decline due to increased sugar production in India and sufficient supply. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. Red Dates - With sufficient supply and weak demand in the 2025/26 production season, the futures price of red dates is running weakly [4]. Apples - In the short - term, the price in the production area is weakly stable, and the market activity in the sales area has declined. In the long - term, high prices may suppress consumption, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [7][12]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn price in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations. In the short - term, the corn price is supported by supply tightness and pre - holiday stocking, but the increase is limited by policy auctions [16][17]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is back in an oscillatory pattern. The overall supply in January is expected to be sufficient. The basis is strong, but there is no obvious fundamental positive. It is recommended to short at high levels after the price stabilizes [18]. Meal - USDA's report has a short - term negative impact on the market, but the decline space of CBOT is limited. The domestic meal market is in a loose situation, but the low - level arrival expectation in the first quarter limits the downward space. The market will oscillate in the short - term [21]. Eggs - The egg market is in a situation of overall supply exceeding demand. The pre - holiday stocking drives up demand, but the price may experience short - term digestion pressure and a slight correction. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [25]. Summaries by Catalog Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The decline rates of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were - 0.78%, - 1.94%, and - 1.35% respectively [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The inventory and warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also showed certain changes [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE cotton price increased slightly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased significantly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the CC Index increased slightly [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton is rising, and the export sales of US cotton are strong [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price also declined [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning remained unchanged, and the price in Kunming decreased slightly [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The sugar production in India increased, and the domestic sugar production, sales, and inventory showed different trends [3]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 all decreased [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of red dates in Cangzhou remained unchanged [4]. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of apple 2605 and 2610 decreased, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in the main production areas were weakly stable [12]. - **Market Activity**: The arrival volume in the wholesale market increased slightly, and the inventory in the cold storage decreased [7]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast is strong, and in North China, it oscillates narrowly. The demand side has different inventory situations [16]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch increased slightly, and the basis decreased [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of pig 2605 and 2603 decreased, and the 3 - 5 spread decreased [18]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The slaughter volume decreased slightly, and the prices of piglets and sows increased slightly [18]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On January 16, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly [21]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased, and those of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [21]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios such as the oil - meal ratio and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread changed slightly [21]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 16, the prices of egg 03 and 04 increased, and the 3 - 4 spread increased [25]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - related products such as egg - laying chicken seedlings and culled chickens increased [25]. - **Industry Situation**: The egg market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand, but the pre - holiday stocking drives up demand [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Indicators**: The closing price of the BR main contract on 1/15 was 12,190, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 5. The open interest was 99,183, a daily decrease of 1,393. The trading volume was 150,035, a daily decrease of 26,996 and a weekly decrease of 17,602. The warehouse receipt quantity remained at 26,330, with a weekly increase of 2,000. The long - short ratio was 18.83, with a weekly increase of 13 [4]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The butadiene rubber basis was - 190, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 5. The styrene - butadiene basis was 110, a daily increase of 110. The 02 - 03 spread was - 60, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 25. The 03 - 04 spread was - 35, a daily decrease of 10 and a weekly decrease of 20. The RU - BR spread was 3,805, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 120. The NR - BR spread was 660, a daily decrease of 105 and a weekly decrease of 210 [4]. - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price, Chuanhua market price remained unchanged at 12,000 and 11,950 respectively. The Qilu ex - factory price remained at 12,100, with a weekly increase of 200. The CFR Northeast Asia price remained at 1,450, with a weekly increase of 35. The CFR Southeast Asia price remained at 1,675, with a weekly increase of 40 [4]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was - 273, a daily decrease of 77 and a weekly decrease of 383. The import profit was 75, a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 237. The export profit was 603, a daily decrease of 7 and a weekly increase of 242 [4]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot (Domestic/External)**: The Shandong market price on 1/15 was 9,875, a daily increase of 75 and a weekly increase of 375. The Jiangsu market price remained at 9,650, with a weekly increase of 350. The Yangzi ex - factory price remained at 9,550, with a weekly increase of 450. The CFR China price remained at 1,140 [4]. - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The carbon - four extraction profit data on 1/15 was N/A. The import profit was 516, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 687. The export profit was - 1,432, a daily increase of 694 and a weekly increase of 1,281. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 663, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 225. The ABS production profit remained at - 871, with a weekly decrease of 58. The SBS production profit was - 615, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly decrease of 220 [4].