Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumer market has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4][5] - Supply-side pressures remain significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, but fixed asset investment continues to grow at over 15% [4] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3] - Price indicators such as PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI are monitored, along with supply-side metrics like capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand stability is sought in industries led by supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] - Conversely, industries with stable supply but driven by demand logic include MDI and explosives, with key companies highlighted [7] Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and stability [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in both domestic and international markets, focusing on new production capabilities and breakthroughs in material science [7] Price Trends and Economic Performance - The chemical product price index (CCPI) has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of approximately 6.9% from January to April 2025 [14] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has also experienced a downward trend, with June 2025 figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [16]

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global Ratings maintains the United States' long-term credit rating at AA+ and short-term rating at A-1+, citing the resilience of the U.S. credit system despite significant fiscal challenges posed by the recent "Big and Beautiful" tax expenditure bill [1][6]. Group 1: Tax Revenue and Fiscal Impact - The increase in effective tariff rates is expected to generate substantial tariff revenue, which will offset potential weaker fiscal outcomes related to recent U.S. fiscal legislation that includes both tax cuts and increased tariff revenues [2]. - In July, U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high of approximately $28 billion, with projections suggesting that annual tariff revenue could exceed 1% of U.S. GDP by 2025 [2]. Group 2: Debt Market Concerns - Investors have been worried about fiscal deficits and broader debt sustainability issues since the return of Trump to the White House, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rising above 5% in May due to concerns over tariffs and tax legislation [3]. - The "term premium" phenomenon indicates ongoing market concerns regarding the increasing interest payments on U.S. debt, with the 30-year Treasury yield remaining at 4.93% and the 10-year yield at 4.33% [4]. Group 3: Future Projections and Ratings Outlook - S&P's stable outlook suggests that while U.S. fiscal deficits are not expected to improve significantly, they also will not worsen, with net government debt projected to exceed 100% of GDP in the next three years [6]. - The average general government deficit is expected to be around 6% from 2025 to 2028, which is lower than the previous year's 7.5% [6].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is shifting its strategy in the semiconductor industry from tariffs to revenue extraction, targeting companies like NVIDIA and AMD for a 15% revenue share from their sales in China [2][3] - The semiconductor market in China is highly profitable, with NVIDIA and AMD expected to generate a combined revenue of $15.8 billion by 2025, making it a lucrative target for U.S. government revenue [3][4] - The U.S. government's approach is seen as a move towards "state capitalism," with implications for the operational independence of companies and potential impacts on innovation [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. semiconductor industry is facing increased operational costs due to government interventions, which may hinder technological advancements and competitiveness against Asian manufacturers [5][7] - The global semiconductor supply chain is becoming increasingly fragmented, with the U.S., Europe, and China forming distinct blocs, leading to potential inefficiencies and increased costs for U.S. consumers [7][9] - The U.S. government's policies may ultimately undermine its own technological leadership, as companies shift focus from innovation to political lobbying in response to regulatory pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the U.S. government's initiation of a tariff war is detrimental to economic globalization and exacerbates geopolitical tensions, reminiscent of the international environment before the rise of fascism in the 1930s [1][3]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current tariff policies and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which aimed to protect jobs and farmers by raising tariffs on imports. Despite opposition from over 1,000 economists, the act was signed into law, leading to a significant reduction in U.S. imports and exports during the Great Depression [3][4]. - The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is cited as a misguided response to an economic crisis, which, while achieving short-term effects, ultimately resulted in greater long-term losses for the U.S. economy and contributed to global instability [4]. Current Tariff Wars - The first round of the current tariff war targets Canada, Mexico, and China, affecting goods worth $1.4 trillion. The second round, characterized by "reciprocal tariffs," is seen as a unilateral approach fraught with flaws and miscalculations [5][6]. - The U.S. administration claims that countries are eager to negotiate, but the reality is that the "reciprocal tariffs" have led to retaliatory measures, escalating into a third round of tariffs [6]. Economic Implications - While short-term coercive measures may yield significant financial contributions to the U.S. economy, the long-term consequences are expected to be severe, undermining globalization and eroding the rules-based international trade system [6]. - The article highlights that economic globalization has historically facilitated trade, investment, and the movement of people, contributing to the rise of major economies like China and India. However, the trend of de-globalization in the late 2010s has led to a slowdown in growth for emerging economies [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advisable [11][12]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost. Each commodity has its own specific investment suggestions, including paying attention to callbacks for buying opportunities, short - term observation, and taking corresponding strategies based on price trends and fundamentals [13][23][25]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so be cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures declined slightly. Policy changes are the main factor in the short - term, and the mid - term is expected to return to the supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downturn suppresses the price of rebar. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. Policy is the main factor in the short - term. The supply - demand pattern is currently strong but may weaken in the mid - term. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined significantly. The policy has affected supply, and there is still positive support for prices. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon contract rose, and the silicon - iron contract fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, production is increasing, and demand recovery is weak. There may be short - term supply surpluses. Consider long positions at low levels after price corrections [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low. The "Double - Putin" talks may lead to European and Ukrainian participation in negotiations, which will put pressure on crude oil. CFTC data shows a bearish sentiment. The price is expected to be weak, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil showed a strong upward trend. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased significantly, which supports the price. The strategy is to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Pay attention to opportunities for a rebound after stabilization [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and supply - side disruptions continue. Pay attention to long - position opportunities [28][29]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC declined. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. It is expected to continue bottom - range oscillations [30][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the mid - term view is bullish [32][34]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may be adjusted in a range [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may be adjusted in a range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply increase may suppress the price, but the demand may improve. Consider trading in a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The device maintenance has increased, inventory is stable, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash declined. Supply is increasing, demand is general, and it is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass declined. The production line is stable, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. In the short - term, consider short - positions, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. Supply fluctuates little, and consumption and prices may be under pressure due to the use of imported ores. The market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [45][46]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp declined. Supply contraction expectations dominate the sentiment, but demand improvement is uncertain. There is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The trading logic has shifted, and the mine - permit event is uncertain. Light - position operations are recommended for non - participants [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and copper prices are oscillating. Downstream enterprises purchase as needed. Consider long - position opportunities [51][52][53]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, and consumption is not optimistic. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply of primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and the consumption is not optimistic. There is pressure on the upper side [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The U.S. soybean's excellent - rate is high, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Consider taking long - position exits at high levels and then long - positions at support levels [56][57]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil rose. Malaysian exports have increased, and domestic imports have also increased. Consider holding long - positions lightly [58][59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products' prices changed. The domestic supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing and holding long - positions [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but short - term reports are positive. Prices are expected to be strong [63][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly. Overseas production is expected to be high, and domestic imports are large before October. It is recommended to observe [66][67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction is falsified, and there is a slight increase in production. It is recommended to observe [69][71][72]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short - term. Consider an anti - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices rose. Egg supply is expected to increase in August, and consumption is not as expected. Consider stopping profit on anti - spreads and then observing [75][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The short - term domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but new - season corn has a high - yield expectation, so it is recommended to observe. Corn starch follows the corn market [77][78][79]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures were flat. Log spot prices are strong, demand is slightly better than arrivals, and short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be supported [80][81][82].

Group 1 - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum is a significant industry exchange platform, featuring various sub-forums focused on open discussions and risk management for enterprises [1][2] - The forum attracts a diverse range of participants, including government officials, exchanges, futures companies, industry clients, and academic experts, enhancing its professional and forward-looking nature [2][3] - The themes of the forum have evolved to address current global commodity trade conditions, with topics ranging from rural revitalization to risk management for industrial enterprises, reflecting the ongoing development of the futures market [2][3] Group 2 - Participants express a strong interest in learning from international experiences, particularly regarding the internationalization of the Chinese futures market amidst global economic uncertainties [3] - Zhengzhou serves as a central hub for transportation, connecting major economic regions, and the forum is positioned as a vital platform for exchanging ideas and experiences in the global futures market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - Crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [28]. - For natural rubber, consider going long after a pull - back [31]. - PVC will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. - Urea will fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [35]. - PX will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. - PTA may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - Ethylene glycol may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - grade chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - For soda ash, pay attention to controlling positions due to the increase in supply and weak demand [42]. - For glass, go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances before contract roll - over [43]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the impact of imported ore on consumption and prices [45]. - For pulp, the supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability, and there is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [49]. - For copper, pay attention to buying opportunities for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - Tin and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [54][55]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [57]. - For palm oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider reducing long positions and holding them [62]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [65]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, showing interval - based fluctuations [69][70]. - Apple futures are expected to be affected by increased production [71]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [74]. - For eggs, consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [77]. - Corn prices have support at lower levels in the short - term and pressure at higher levels, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - Log prices are expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [83]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long [8][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US retail sales data was stable, and the "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly declined. Policy changes dominate the market in the short - term, and the prices are expected to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - term. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly pulled back. Policy is the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal. The high demand for hot metal supports prices, but the supply has increased. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and sorted. Policy affects supply, and prices may continue to adjust in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pull - backs [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply and prices have changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The supply is excessive, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards and was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. The "Double - Putin" talks and CFTC data indicate that crude oil prices are expected to be weak, and it is advisable to temporarily observe [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market shows signs of improvement, but the supply in Singapore is still excessive. It is advisable to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the market sentiment is positive. Wait for it to stabilize and participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has warmed up, and supply - side disruptions continue. Consider going long after a pull - back [29][31]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. It will continue to fluctuate at the bottom [32]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures closed flat. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it will fluctuate. It is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [33][35]. PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply has increased, and the cost support is weak. It will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has slightly increased, demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weak. It may have a pull - back adjustment in the short - term, and interval trading can be considered [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has increased, and the port inventory has accumulated. It may be suppressed by short - term supply increases, and interval trading is advisable [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [39]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures rose. The supply has decreased due to maintenance, and demand has recovered. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [40][41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. Supply has increased, demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline. Pay attention to controlling positions [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures declined. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. Go short in the short - term, and pay attention to controlling positions due to capital - side disturbances [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Supply has little change, and inventory has decreased. The use of imported ore may affect consumption and prices, and the price is expected to stabilize [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures rose slightly. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is of uncertain sustainability. The inventory is high, and the price rebound space is limited [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The trading logic has shifted, and it is advisable for non - participating investors to operate with a light position and control risks [48][49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper slightly fluctuated. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Pay attention to buying opportunities [51][52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The ore supply is tight, and the market expects the tin ore to resume production in the fourth quarter. The supply is still in short supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The ore price has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the demand is weak. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures declined. The USDA report lowered the US soybean planting area. The domestic soybean supply is loose, and the import cost has increased. Consider exiting long positions at stage highs and then look for long - entry opportunities after adjustment [56][57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose. The export volume in the first half of August increased. The domestic palm oil inventory has accumulated. Consider reducing long positions and holding them lightly [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures rose. China imposed anti - dumping duties on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed supply may be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing long positions and holding them [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The US and global cotton supply - demand reports were favorable. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, and textile exports have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [63][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, but imports will be high before October. It is recommended to observe [67][69]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The expected apple production increase has been confirmed. The inventory has decreased, and the price of early - maturing apples has declined [71]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average live - pig price declined. The supply in the north has increased, and the price is expected to be observed. The supply in the south is stable. The supply will increase in August, and it is advisable to consider a reverse - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price rose slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory has increased. The supply in August is expected to increase, and consider gradually taking profits on the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][77]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The new - season corn is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the price has pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market [78][80]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures rose. The expected arrival of New Zealand logs has decreased, and the inventory has declined. The trading volume has increased, and the price is expected to be supported by bullish sentiment in the short - term [81][83].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Consumer Behavior - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shifted from decline to increase, indicating a need to further stimulate consumer activity in the economy [1] - Consumer spending is a major component of GDP, and its growth is essential for economic development [1] - The government has introduced policies such as "trade-in" and "consumer loan interest subsidies" to boost consumption [1] Group 2: Trends in Consumption - There is a significant trend towards increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP, which is currently lower compared to developed countries [2] - Enhancing consumer income through industrial upgrades is crucial for boosting consumption [2] - The demand for sports events and related products indicates untapped consumer potential [2] Group 3: Competition and Market Dynamics - "Involution" or excessive competition in certain industries is detrimental to consumer welfare and market health [3] - The need to improve industry concentration and profitability is emphasized to combat "involution" [5] - The manufacturing sector's upgrade is essential for increasing residents' income and overcoming the middle-income trap [4][5] Group 4: Policy Utilization and Consumer Opportunities - Consumers are encouraged to take advantage of government subsidies for various sectors, including home appliances and automobiles [6] - The limited nature of subsidies means consumers should act quickly to benefit from available policies [6] - Traditional and new consumption sectors hold significant potential for growth, and consumers should embrace digital economic opportunities [7]

Core Viewpoint - The book "Sanctions and Economic Warfare" emphasizes the increasing relevance of studying economic sanctions and warfare in the context of globalization and geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the United States [2][3]. Group 1: Globalization and Economic Warfare - The 21st century is characterized as a golden age for the study and practice of economic sanctions and warfare, driven by deepening globalization and complex interdependencies between nations [2]. - The current downward trend in globalization has led to rising international conflicts, yet the degree of interdependence among countries remains high, making sanctions a significant tool in geopolitical strategies [2]. - The ongoing struggle between sanctions and counter-sanctions is expected to disrupt international interdependence and division of labor, potentially limiting the applicability of sanctions in the future [2]. Group 2: China's Strategic Response - The urgency and strategic importance of researching sanctions and economic warfare are particularly pronounced for China, given the escalating political and economic competition with the U.S. [2][3]. - China recognizes the need to defend its political, economic, and strategic interests in the global system, necessitating the development of appropriate foreign policy tools, primarily relying on economic means rather than military or propaganda strategies [2]. Group 3: Theoretical Framework - The authors propose establishing a "Chinese paradigm" for sanctions and economic warfare theory, addressing deficiencies in existing Western frameworks, particularly those from U.S. academia [4][5]. - The critique of U.S. approaches highlights a misunderstanding of the effectiveness of economic sanctions, which often overlook the political motivations behind such policies [5]. - The book aims to build a theoretical system based on China's practical experiences and historical context, emphasizing the unique institutional advantages and strategic culture of China [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Case Studies - The book includes extensive case studies from various historical contexts, such as ancient Chinese strategies against northern tribes, the Continental System during the Napoleonic Wars, and modern sanctions against Russia amid the Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - These historical examples serve to validate the theoretical propositions and provide insights into the dynamics of sanctions and economic warfare [5].

本文是我的新书《制裁与经济战》前言的节选部分。 21世纪是一个研究和实践制裁与经济战的黄金时代。 全球化向纵深发展，让各国之间形成了多元而不对称的复合相互依赖，也为制裁与经济战的运用提供了一个良好的条件。 更进一步，由于这种分工体系带来的网络效应，中心国家对外围国家的制裁能力和经济权力，不仅来源于中心国家的能力和 资源，还来源于全世界许多国家的能力和资源，甚至包括受制裁国自身的部分能力和资源。因此，在全球化高度发展的今 天，发生制裁与经济战的可能达到了前所未有的高度。 在本书酝酿和写作期间，全球化已经进入了下行期。 与1914—1945年间的上一个下行期相似，今天的时代特征是脱钩断链和保护主义而不是进一步强化分工，是公平、安全与韧 性优先而不是效率优先，是民粹浪潮和民族主义上升而不是理性、平和、开放、包容的声音占主流。正因如此，党的二十大 报告更强调动荡变革期的风高浪急和惊涛骇浪。 制裁要发挥作用，前提是发起国和目标国之间存在重要且不对称的经济相互依赖。在当今世界，除了朝 鲜等极少数例外，绝 大多数国家的福利和生计都与世界市场的波动紧密相连。人们消费的绝大部分商品和技术都依靠主要分布在东亚、北美、欧 洲的产业 ...