Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has appreciated against the US dollar (USD), reaching a two-month high, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish stance and the Federal Reserve's expectations of rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Australian Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6%, marking the third consecutive meeting without a rate cut, with inflation risks identified as rising [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% year-on-year in Q3 and further increased to 3.8% in October, driven by housing, electricity prices, and service sector inflation [1]. - Private demand in Australia is recovering steadily, supported by consumption and investment, with the real estate market showing signs of activity and price increases [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with market focus on policy language and future guidance [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are notable, with the current inflation rate at 2.8%, leading to speculation about the potential for "hawkish rate cuts" [2]. Group 3: Currency Market Dynamics - The USD index has shown significant downward movement since early December, declining by 1.2% from late November highs, which has supported non-USD currencies, including the AUD [2]. - The AUD is favored among G10 currencies, with expectations that if the Fed signals further rate cuts in 2026, the AUD could appreciate further [2]. Group 4: Key Technical Levels - The AUD/USD is facing resistance at the 0.6650 level, which is both a previous high and a psychological barrier; a breakthrough could lead to a challenge of the yearly high of 0.6707 [3]. - The core support range for the AUD/USD is identified between 0.6520 and 0.6550, which includes moving averages and previous channel support; a drop below this range could trigger a deeper correction [3].

就业数据对市场判断通胀黏性和货币政策走向具有直接影响。非农就业数据通常通过"美元指数—美债 收益率—实际利率"这一传导链条来影响黄金价格。若就业数据及工资增速显著超出预期，可能会增强 市场的高利率预期，进而推升美元指数和实际利率，对黄金价格构成阶段性压制。相反，如果就业数据 和工资增速不佳，那么"就业降温"的叙事就可能促使市场重新评估降息预期，从而利好黄金。当然，也 需要警惕数据集中发布可能引发的市场短线波动放大。 对于黄金后市，知名人士认为在降息周期已得到确认且市场流动性宽松的背景下，黄金的中期"定价 锚"更倾向于实际利率下行和避险需求上升。从边际变化来看，美联储降息节奏与市场定价之间仍存在 分歧。如果后续数据显示出"降息放缓甚至暂停"的迹象，那么金价可能会出现深度回调。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月 下旬后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短暂调整，整体仍维持震荡上行的趋势。 今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月下旬 后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短 ...

美国经济数据正传递矛盾信号。11月私营部门就业人数意外减少3.2万，为近两年半最大降幅；失业率从6月的4.1%升至4.4%，消费动力明显减弱。然而，通 胀却未如期回落——11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，核心CPI高达3.3%，均远高于美联储2%的长期目标。更棘手的是，由于美国政府此前停摆，9月以来的关键经 济数据缺失，美联储此次降息近乎"蒙眼决策"。 当地时间12月11日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.5?.75%。这是自9月以来的连续第三次降息，但市场并未迎来狂欢。相 反，美联储释放的"鹰派信号"让投资者意识到，宽松盛宴背后是更为复杂的博弈：通胀黏性、就业市场降温、政治压力与债务风险交织，让鲍威尔不得不 在"救经济"与"防通胀"之间走钢丝。 此次降息看似顺应市场预期，实则暗藏分歧。美联储内部投票结果出现罕见的三张反对票，一人主张降息50个基点，两人坚持维持利率不变。这种分歧程度 创下2019年9月以来新高，反映出美联储对下一步政策路径的激烈争论。鲍威尔在记者会上承认，当前通胀风险偏上行，而就业风险偏下行，政策调整空间 日益狭窄。 美联储的谨慎源于三重约束：通胀黏性、财政赤字与债市压 ...

这种由政策不确定性导致的观望情绪，在美国制造业体现得尤为明显。尽管借贷成本下降，但由于关税政策持续波动，许多企业选择暂缓投资决策，等待形 势明朗。美国供应管理学会的数据显示，工厂活动已连续多月萎缩。有企业高管直言，在客户因不确定性而停止订购新设备之前，降息本身"不会影响我们 的业务"。 货币政策传导机制本身也面临挑战。当美联储调整基准利率时，其影响渗透至整体经济通常需要长达十八个月。然而，当前环境可能使这一滞后期进一步延 长。一方面，市场往往提前消化降息预期，使其对金融市场的直接影响减弱；另一方面，大部分现有企业和消费者债务（如固定利率抵押贷款）并不会立即 对降息做出反应。更关键的是，持续的高通胀和联邦预算赤字等因素，共同将美债收益率维持在高位，从而限制了其他贷款利率的下行空间。 美联储预计将在本周的会议上再次宣布降息。然而，越来越多的经济学家和市场分析指出，这轮预期的宽松政策对经济的刺激效果可能远逊于以往，其积极 作用不仅会姗姗来迟，更可能被货币政策无法控制的因素所削弱。 传统上，降息能通过降低借贷成本来刺激对利率敏感的行业，如地产和制造业。但本轮周期的情况截然不同。在地产市场，尽管抵押贷款利率已从峰值回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a strengthening trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by improvements in employment and persistent inflation, while facing challenges from commodity price volatility and uncertainties in iron ore demand [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Australia's Q3 CPI rose to 3.2% year-on-year, with trimmed mean inflation at 3% [1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October, with an increase of 42,200 jobs, including a significant rise of 55,000 full-time positions [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to resilient inflation and employment data [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative stance is providing an advantage to the AUD, with an 82.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, although Chairman Powell indicated that rate cuts are not guaranteed, which may create policy expectation volatility [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - China's iron ore imports exceeded 100 million tons in October, marking the fifth consecutive month above this threshold, while Brent crude oil prices are declining, partially offsetting the AUD's commodity-related support [1][2] - Structural contradictions in the Australian economy and fluctuations in external demand are constraining the AUD's upward movement, with rising inflation driven by housing and electricity costs potentially suppressing consumer spending [2] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding the future of the AUD, with Oxford Economics predicting a potential rate cut by the RBA in 2026, while Capital Economics believes faster rate cuts by the Fed will support the AUD [2] - Technical indicators show that the AUD has formed a consolidation platform around 0.6550, with a bullish signal emerging from the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6580-0.6600, with support levels at 0.6550-0.6560, and future movements will depend on upcoming data releases from the Fed and Australian inflation figures [2]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD exchange rate is stabilizing around the 1.32 mark, influenced by the contrasting monetary policies of the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside internal divisions within the BoE [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank of England's Policy and Inflation - The BoE's cautious stance is a key support for the GBP, with the latest CPI data showing a rise to 2.6% in November, the highest in eight months, and core CPI increasing from 3.3% to 3.5%, exceeding market expectations [1] - The BoE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.75% with a 6:3 vote, indicating that discussions on rate cuts are premature despite some members advocating for a 25 basis point reduction [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Shift to Easing - In contrast to the BoE, the Fed is moving towards a more accommodative policy, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% in November, signaling a cooling labor market [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December have surged to 71%, with some institutions estimating the probability at 87% [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The BoE has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Q4 2024 from 0.3% to zero growth, highlighting concerns over high interest rates impacting consumption and investment [2] - Internal divisions within the BoE reflect a heated debate between prioritizing economic growth and controlling inflation, with potential trade risks from U.S. tariff policies posing further inflationary pressures [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The GBP/USD has formed a support level at 1.3150, with multiple tests of this level followed by rebounds, indicating active buying interest [4] - Key resistance is identified in the 1.3250-1.3280 range, while support is anchored at 1.3150-1.3180, with critical upcoming events including the Fed's December meeting and UK inflation data [4]

Market Performance - On November 26, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.67%, S&P 500 up 0.69%, and Nasdaq up 0.82% [1] - The Dow Jones closed at 47,427.12, S&P 500 at 6,812.61, and Nasdaq at 23,214.69 [2] Sector Performance - Technology and semiconductor stocks mostly rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increasing by 2.76% [2] - Notable stock performances included Micron Technology rising over 5%, Oracle up over 4%, and AMD up nearly 4% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.03%, with notable gainers like Canadian Solar up over 8% and Vipshop up over 2% [2] - However, companies like Hesai Technology and iQIYI saw declines of over 7% and 3%, respectively [2] Commodity Prices - Spot gold rose by 0.80%, closing at $4,163.78 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 0.46% to $4,158.90 [2] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil futures for January rose over 1%, closing at $58.65 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.13 per barrel [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective rise, with Bitcoin surpassing $90,000, increasing by 3.68% to $90,282 [3][4] - Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Solana also experienced gains of 3.32% and 4.37%, respectively [4] Market Expectations - According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 84.9%, with a 15.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [5] - The market anticipates a cumulative rate cut of 100-150 basis points by 2026, although this expectation may overlook risks such as persistent inflation and economic resilience [6]

Group 1 - Major US tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rebounding over 1% after a previous drop of over 2%, while Facebook and Tesla saw slight declines, and Google fell over 1% [2] - Nvidia responded positively to competition from Google, asserting its continued supply to Google and claiming to be a generation ahead in the industry [2] - Oracle's stock rose over 4%, with Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick maintaining a buy rating and raising the target price from $335 to $375 [3] Group 2 - Cryptocurrency-related stocks in the US strengthened, with Robinhood rising nearly 8%, Cipher Mining up over 5%, and Coinbase increasing by nearly 2% [4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Li Auto and Vipshop both gaining over 3%, while Pinduoduo and Miniso increased by over 2.7% [4] - Li Auto reported third-quarter revenue of 27.4 billion yuan and a net loss of 620 million yuan, attributing losses to the MEGA recall event, which caused approximately 1.113 billion yuan in losses [4] Group 3 - Spot gold prices showed strong performance, reaching a daily high of nearly 1% at $4,170 before retreating to around $4,140 [5] - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 220,000 [6]

Market Overview - US stock market opened higher on November 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.30%, S&P 500 up 0.28%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.26% [1] Technology Sector - Major US tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rebounding over 1% after a previous drop of over 2%. Facebook and Tesla saw slight declines, while Google dropped over 1% [3] - Nvidia confirmed it will continue supplying Google despite competition, asserting its industry leadership [3] Company Performance - Oracle's stock rose over 4%, with Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick maintaining a "buy" rating and raising the target price from $335 to $375 [4] - In the cryptocurrency sector, Robinhood surged nearly 8%, Cipher Mining increased over 5%, and Coinbase rose nearly 2% [5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Li Auto and Vipshop up over 3%, and Pinduoduo and Miniso up over 2.7% [5] - Li Auto reported Q3 revenue of 27.4 billion yuan and a net loss of 620 million yuan, attributed to the MEGA recall event causing a loss of approximately 1.113 billion yuan [5] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and previous value of 220,000 [9] - Market pricing indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with cumulative cuts expected to reach 100-150 basis points by 2026 [9][10] - The potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair has increased market bets on significant rate cuts in the coming year [9][10]

Market Overview - US stock market opened higher on November 26, with the Dow Jones up 0.30%, S&P 500 up 0.28%, and Nasdaq up 0.26% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia rebounding over 1% after a previous drop of over 2%, while Google fell over 1% [3] Company Performance - Oracle's stock rose over 4%, with Deutsche Bank analyst Brad Zelnick maintaining a "buy" rating and raising the target price from $335 to $375 [4] - Li Auto reported Q3 revenue of 27.4 billion yuan and a net loss of 620 million yuan, with a total revenue of 83.5 billion yuan for the first three quarters [5] Cryptocurrency and Chinese Stocks - Cryptocurrency-related stocks performed well, with Robinhood up nearly 8% and Coinbase up nearly 2% [5] - Most popular Chinese stocks saw gains, with Li Auto and Vipshop rising over 3% [5] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 [9] - Market pricing indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with expectations of cumulative cuts of 100-150 basis points by 2026 [9][11] Federal Reserve Outlook - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair has increased market bets on significant rate cuts in the coming year [11] - The Fed may implement rate cuts in December, March, and June, ultimately lowering the rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [11]