Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in lumber futures prices, despite being a peak demand season, is attributed to the failure of previous bullish expectations and weakening demand in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Lumber futures prices fell by 5.12%, reaching a limit down, due to the collapse of bullish expectations related to increased import costs from special port fees imposed by China on U.S. vessels [1]. - The recent progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has led to a consensus on maritime logistics and tariff suspensions, which diminished the expectations of rising costs [1][2]. - Current supply pressure is significant, with port arrivals maintaining a higher-than-normal level, particularly with an expected 14 vessels arriving in the week of November 2, totaling nearly 500,000 cubic meters [2]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Analysis - The demand for lumber is weak, with average daily shipments in the Yangtze River Delta region dropping to 46,900 cubic meters, a 23.11% decrease compared to the same period last year [2]. - Despite September and October being traditional peak seasons for wood processing and furniture production, demand has been underwhelming, with average daily shipments around 64,400 cubic meters [3]. - The market is experiencing a seasonal increase in lumber imports, which is expected to continue, leading to heightened inventory pressure amid weak demand [3][4]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The market sentiment is increasingly bearish, with concerns about the potential continuation of price declines and the possibility of futures contracts trading at a discount [3]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to be divided into two phases: a peak season in October followed by a downturn in November, influenced by reduced construction activity in northern regions due to colder weather [4]. - The prevailing market logic revolves around high inventory levels and weak demand, suggesting that unless there is a significant reduction in import volumes, prices may fall below current spot costs [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term Outlook**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the overall improvement in the fundamentals of the black - series is limited, with the main contracts of the black - series fluctuating at low levels. The real - estate data remains weak, glass enterprises' inventories have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the oversupply situation in the soda ash market persists, with both maintaining a weak pattern [67][71] - **Short - term Outlook**: This week, due to the political turmoil in Mongolia affecting coking coal supply, coking coal and coke prices soared, boosting the sentiment of the black - series. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, but the steel price is under pressure. The daily average hot - metal output has fallen below 2.4 million tons, and iron ore prices are fluctuating at low levels. Glass and soda ash continue to operate at low levels, and attention should be paid to the market reaction and fundamental improvement after the important meeting [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3037.0 on October 17 to 3046.0 on October 24, an increase of 9.0 (0.3%). The spot price was 3046.0, and the basis was 0 [3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3204.0 to 3250.0, an increase of 46.0 (1.4%). The spot price was 3290.0, and the basis was 40.0 [3] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract remained at 771.0. The spot price was 797.0, and the basis was 26.0 [3] - **Coke (J2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1676.0 to 1757.5, an increase of 81.5 (4.9%). The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 137.5 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1179.0 to 1248.5, an increase of 69.5 (5.9%). The spot price was 1420.0, and the basis was 171.5 [3] - **Glass (FG601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract fell from 1095.0 to 1092.0, a decrease of 3.0 (- 0.3%). The spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 148.0 [3] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1209.0 to 1229.0, an increase of 20.0 (1.7%). The spot price was 1270.6, and the basis was 41.6 [3] 3.2 Rebar Blast Furnace Profit - On October 23, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Rebar Supply - As of October 24, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons; the rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons [13] 3.4 Rebar Demand - In the week of October 24, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,600 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 105,323 tons [18] 3.5 Rebar Inventory - In the week of October 24, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3748 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 189,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [22] 3.6 Iron Ore Supply - In the week of October 17, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons [27] 3.7 Iron Ore Inventory - In the week of October 24, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9646 million tons [32] 3.8 Iron Ore Demand - In the week of October 24, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,500 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 959,000 tons [37] 3.9 Float Glass Supply - In the week of October 24, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, and the operating rate was 76.35%, both remaining unchanged from the previous week [42] 3.10 Float Glass Inventory - In the week of October 24, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.3374 million weight boxes compared with October 17. The available days of in - plant inventory were 28.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [47] 3.11 Float Glass Demand - As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [51] 3.12 Soda Ash Supply - In the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740,600 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous week [55] 3.13 Soda Ash Inventory - As of October 24, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [60] 3.14 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - As of October 24, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points [64]

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the polyolefin market deviated from expectations due to intensified supply - demand imbalance, with prices being low. The market is showing bottom characteristics, but upward pressure is significant. Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene, and the LP main contract spread will widen, yet the overall pattern remains weakly oscillating [1][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Market Analysis - **Main Contract Trends**: In previous "Golden September and Silver October" periods, polyolefins had a high probability of a bull market. However, in 2025, prices declined instead. By mid - to late October, the LLDPE main contract fell below 6,900 yuan/ton, down over 10% from the beginning of the year, and the PP main contract once reached a low of 6,500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Price Trends**: Polyethylene spot prices were structurally differentiated, with LLDPE having the largest annual decline of up to 30.50%. Polypropylene spot prices were also weak, with a maximum decline of over 10% [8]. - **Main Contract Basis Trends**: In 2025, the polyethylene main contract basis showed an inverted N - shaped downward trend, with an annual range of (0, 1200) yuan/ton. The PP basis was relatively stable, with a range of (0, 600) yuan/ton [11]. - **Contract Month - spread Trends**: As of October 17, the polyethylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 33 yuan/ton, stronger than last month but weaker than last year. The polypropylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, weaker than both last month and last year [16]. - **Main Contract Spread Trends**: Since 2025, the LP main contract spread has oscillated between (0, 650) yuan/ton. As of October 17, it was 323 yuan/ton, up from last month but down from last year [19]. 2. Analysis of the Reasons for the Weak Market - **Weak Downstream Demand**: Despite the peak season, the overall downstream polyolefin operating rate only slightly rebounded and was lower than in previous years. The demand - boosting effect of domestic stimulus policies was diminishing, and downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak restocking motivation [20]. - **High Supply Pressure**: In 2025, the polyolefin industry was in a capacity expansion cycle. From January to September, 3.93 million tons of polyethylene and 3.66 million tons of polypropylene were put into production, with more planned for the fourth quarter. Although there were many device overhauls in the second and third quarters, the marginal effect decreased, and supply pressure increased [32]. - **Weak Cost Support**: In the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices weakened. OPEC+ continued to increase production in October, and the fourth - quarter demand was expected to decline, causing the oil price to drop. Other raw material prices also fell, weakening cost support for polyolefins [37]. - **High Inventory Pressure**: As of October 17, polyethylene and polypropylene inventories were at relatively high levels. The inventory digestion was slow, and with the end of "Golden September and Silver October", demand growth was limited, while supply pressure remained, hindering the de - stocking process [40]. 3. Outlook for the Future - **Price Bottoming with Support**: After continuous price declines, the polyolefin market is showing bottom characteristics. International crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, and production profits are severely squeezed, forcing enterprises to adjust production loads. Also, the market has priced in current negative factors, reducing the downward momentum [45]. - **Weakly Oscillating Market with Upward Pressure**: The polyolefin market is in a key stage of supply - demand re - balance. Due to high supply pressure and weak demand, it will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract between 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [46]. - **Differentiated Internal Trends**: Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene in the fourth quarter due to less new - capacity pressure and better inventory conditions. The LP main contract spread will widen, presenting arbitrage opportunities [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Report gives a neutral rating for the lead industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some regions is also tight. Therefore, the lead price is showing a range - bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On October 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.69/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all remained unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference, waste electric vehicle battery price, waste white - shell battery price, and waste black - shell battery price also remained unchanged [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,125 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 29,011 lots (a decrease of 14,526 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 26,547 lots (a decrease of 7,009 lots). During the night session, it opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous day. Different regions had different pricing strategies for lead. The regional supply of lead ingots remained tight, and with the approaching end of the current - month long - term contracts, the supply of spot goods was limited. Some downstream buyers made purchases as needed, while others waited for the execution of new - month long - term contracts [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On October 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 22, the LME lead inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Strategy - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a significant downturn, with the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" losing its vibrancy, reflecting a deeper stagnation in the market [1][2]. Market Conditions - Last year's National Day holiday saw a brief recovery in the real estate market due to policy stimuli, with cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen experiencing a surge in demand. However, this year's holiday marked one of the worst performances in nearly a decade, with developers resorting to various promotions to attract buyers, yet the market remains subdued [2][3]. - The shift in policy focus from stimulating transactions to stabilizing expectations and preventing risks has altered public perception of the real estate market. The investment appeal of housing is diminishing, leading to a mindset of "buying on the decline" rather than "buying on the rise" [3][4]. Housing Supply and Demand - The supply of existing homes is now exceeding demand, with a projected 30% decline in housing demand over the next decade. The urban housing vacancy rate has reached 16.2%, equating to approximately 390 million vacant urban homes [3][4]. - The commercial real estate sector is also facing challenges, with a significant increase in the supply of Grade A office buildings leading to high vacancy rates in major cities: Shanghai at 24.6%, Guangzhou at 23.8%, and Shenzhen at 26.5% [4]. Price Trends - National statistics indicate a decline in housing prices across major cities, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.0% month-on-month decrease in August. The average price drop from the peak in 2021 exceeds 30% [4][6]. - The cautious sentiment among potential buyers is evident, as many are waiting for prices to drop further, leading to a pervasive expectation of future price declines [7][8]. Developer Challenges - Developers are facing significant financial pressures, with companies like Vanke reporting a liquidity crisis. As of mid-2025, Vanke's current liabilities reached 641.1 billion yuan, with short-term debts of 157.9 billion yuan, raising concerns about their ability to deliver homes [8][9]. - The risk of delivery failures is becoming a major concern for buyers, overshadowing price considerations. The ongoing credit crisis among private developers has heightened fears regarding the ability to complete projects [8][9]. Policy Responses - Recent government meetings have emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market. Major cities are beginning to relax purchase restrictions, with Beijing and Shanghai implementing policies to stimulate demand [9][10]. - The market is undergoing a transition from speculative investment to a more rational assessment of value, suggesting a potential return to stability in the long term [10][11]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions require patience as the industry seeks to find a new equilibrium. Historical precedents suggest that real estate markets can recover after prolonged downturns, indicating that the current adjustment may not be the end but rather a necessary phase [11][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a long - position thinking [3] 2. Core View - On the supply side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, the growth of zinc ore processing fees is slowing down, the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, smelters have large profit margins and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, the inflow of imported zinc decreases, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have increased, post - holiday market demand remains weak, and the spot premium is at a low level. LME inventories continue to decline, the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, and the tight situation has intensified [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 305 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,993.5 dollars/ton, up 17.5 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,833 lots, up 299 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,935 lots, down 540 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,209 tons, down 1,059 tons. The SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons, and the LME inventory is 37,275 tons, down 50 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,900 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 299.34 dollars/ton, up 69.05 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons, and refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.31%, unchanged [3] 3.7行业消息 - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry has no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU and Dutch officials on trade issues. Reuters survey expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly recovered under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range - bound oscillation pattern, with an expected oscillation range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.78/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,537 lots, an increase of 15,881 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,556 lots, a decrease of 4,639 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,210 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan offered a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead, and holders offered a discount of 80 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Smelters in Hunan offered a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales. Holders in Yunnan offered a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 350 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, the supply of electrolytic lead in some areas was slightly tight, and the trading of scattered orders was fair [2] Inventory - On October 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 21, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral. The option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Current paper product demand remains stable, paper product prices show no obvious rebound, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [12] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 207.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, showing a narrow de - stocking trend [12] - The pulp fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but there is a potential shortage of delivery resources for the 2026 Russian needles. The futures price may be priced according to Russian needles and high - quality softwood pulp; maintain the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [12] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 20, 2025, SP2601 was 5156, up 0.66% day - on - day and down 0.04% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4858, up 0.41% day - on - day and up 1.80% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5212, up 0.54% day - on - day and down 0.31% week - on - week [6] - **Spot Prices**: On October 20, 2025, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star was 5500, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of Russian Needles was 5100, up 2.00% day - on - day and week - on - week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week [6] - **Foreign Quotes**: In October 2025, the quote of Chilean Silver Star was 700 US dollars/ton, down 2.78% month - on - month; the quote of Japanese pulp was 530 US dollars/ton, up 3.92% month - on - month; the quote of Chilean Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged month - on - month [6] - **Import Costs**: In October 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; the import cost of Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; the import cost of Chilean Venus was 4830, unchanged month - on - month [6] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In September 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 69.1 million tons, up 12.54% month - on - month; the import volume of hardwood pulp was 135.6 million tons, up 7.79% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in August 2025 was 162 million tons, up 4.50% month - on - month [6] - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 207.4 million tons; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 22.7 million tons [6] - **Demand**: In October 2025, the production of offset paper was 20.30 million tons, coated paper was 7.90 million tons, tissue paper was 28.08 million tons, and white cardboard was 34.50 million tons [6] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On October 20, 2025, the Russian Needles basis was 242, with a quantile level of 0.91; the Silver Star basis was 642, with a quantile level of 0.877 [6] - **Import Profit**: On October 20, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp Silver Star was - 221, with a quantile level of 0.285; the import profit of hardwood pulp Goldfish was - 94, with a quantile level of 0.555 [6] Supply - side Information - Chile's Arauco Company's September softwood pulp Silver Star was quoted at 700 US dollars/ton; hardwood pulp Star was quoted at 540 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus was quoted at 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged. Softwood pulp foreign quotes decreased, while hardwood pulp quotes increased [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "Taihu Elegance Living in Huzhou" housing fair and the first "Youth Innovation City" housing connection meeting will take place from October 24, 2025, utilizing a hybrid online and offline model to enhance public participation and experience [1]. Group 1: Event Overview - The housing fair is co-hosted by the Municipal Construction Bureau and the Municipal Human Resources and Social Security Bureau, with support from various local organizations [3]. - The event will feature 10 brand real estate companies showcasing nearly 40 quality property projects, including over 10,000 housing units, 680,000 square meters of office space, and 156,300 square meters of commercial space [3]. Group 2: Special Features - The fair will include three main features: exclusive home purchase discounts, promotion of housing fund and youth talent housing policies, and a 15-day online live tour [5]. - Online activities will run from October 24 to November 7, covering authoritative policy interpretations, live property tours, and popular property recommendations [5]. - The offline exhibition will take place at the Love Mountain Square from October 24 to 26, providing an immersive experience with model displays, information distribution, and one-on-one consultation services [5]. Group 3: Focus on Youth - The first "Youth Innovation City" housing connection meeting will be launched during the fair, focusing on the housing and entrepreneurial needs of young people [7]. - The initiative aims to integrate resources for talent introduction, housing loans, and housing fund support, promoting low-cost entrepreneurship and high-quality living for youth in Huzhou [7].

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in second-hand housing prices across 70 major cities in September, suggesting a weak performance in the traditional peak buying season [1][2] - First-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decrease of 1% in second-hand residential prices, with specific declines in Beijing (0.9%), Shanghai (1%), Guangzhou (0.8%), and Shenzhen (1%) [1] - Year-on-year, first-tier cities saw a 3.2% drop in second-hand housing prices, while second and third-tier cities experienced declines of 5% and 5.7%, respectively [1][2] Second-hand Housing Market - The overall trend in second-hand housing prices remains downward, with a slight narrowing of the decline in year-on-year figures [1][2] - The average time for second-hand housing listings has increased to 95 days, indicating challenges in inventory turnover, especially in smaller cities [4][5] New Housing Market - In contrast, new housing prices showed some resilience, with cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou reporting month-on-month increases of 0.3% [1][2] - Year-on-year, Shanghai's new housing prices increased by 5.6%, while Hangzhou saw a 3.6% rise, highlighting a divergence in market performance [1][2] Real Estate Development Trends - From January to September, national real estate development investment totaled 6.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, with residential investment down by 12.9% [2][3] - The total area under construction for real estate development fell by 9.4%, with residential construction area declining by 9.7% [2][3] Market Outlook - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to see continued policy support for core cities, which may stabilize transaction volumes and price expectations [4] - However, non-core areas and many smaller cities will likely need to rely on price adjustments to manage inventory levels effectively [4][5]