铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：宏观扰动加剧，价格震荡 强弱分析：中性偏弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Special report ...

今年9月的车市，热闹得不太寻常。翻开9月的新车日历，各大车企像是约好了一般把最重要的产品都押注在了这个月。刷刷朋友圈，隔三差五就是某个品 牌的新车发布会，翻翻汽车媒体的推送，几乎每周都有"重磅上市"的标题。 9月新车多，原本不是什么新鲜事，但今年确实有点格外疯狂了：方程豹钛7上旬上市，上市5天交付破千台；极狐T1身居纯电小车市场，上市1小时大定 破2.6万；享界S9T以鸿蒙智行首款旅行车上市，后面跟着全新问界M7和被寄予厚望的尚界H5；奥迪E5 Sportback、领克10 EM-P、腾势N9、极氪9X也都 陆续上市。 在Q4到来前，各大车企仿佛听到了同一个发令枪响，把所有筹码都压在了这个起跑线上。这背后有着多方面的原因，即将到期的政策窗口是一方面，年 度KPI的不断催促也不可忽视，所有车企都陷入了一场抢时间的豪赌，中国车市的红火和压力肉眼可见。 倒计时：购置税减免的最后百天 让今年9月与众不同的，首先是一个明确的截止日期：今年年底新能源汽车购置税减免政策就将到期，明年1月1日开始改为"减半征收"，每辆减税额不超 过1.5万元，优惠力度有所退坡。对一台30万的新能源车来说，购置税减免就是近3万的实打实优惠。这 ...

VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究成果，与各界探讨行业运 行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 榜单 2025年1-9月中国房地产企业销售TOP100排行榜 2025年1-9月中国房地产企业新增货值TOP100排行榜 截止9月末，销售百强新增货值集中度仍保持在高位：销售TOP10房企新增货值占百强的68%，TOP3 1- 50新增货值占比达12%，其余梯队占比 均不足10%。 2025年9月中国房地产企业品牌传播力TOP50 九月楼市，一面是"金九银十"营销季的诚意让利潮，一面是中秋国庆双节前的业主回馈热，更交织着战略发布的新声与校招启动的活力。 1、百强房企9月实现销售操盘金额2527 .8亿元，环比增长2 2.1%，同比增长0.4% 2、前9月3 0城累计成交88 33万平方米，同比微降3%。 专题 沪杭京等5城土地成交占四成，能否破解新房供给约束魔咒？ 沪杭蓉等供应"量跌质增"或能维持去化热度但对成交规模提升有限。 观点 快评｜十一假期新房认购同环比降超3成，杭蓉穗汉郑等点状回温 10月整体成交总量规模或将延续低位波动，绝对量与9 ...

9月，零跑汽车成首个月销突破6万辆的新势力品牌，赛力斯、小鹏、小米均突破4万辆。自主车企也在 新能源板块全面发力。 进入"金九银十"销售旺季，创新高、翻倍增长成为9月销量"成绩单"频繁出现的关键词。 造车新势力销量表现迎来变化，零跑汽车以超6.66万辆的交付量，不仅刷新自身单月销量纪录，更成为 首个月销突破6万辆的新势力品牌。赛力斯、小鹏汽车、小米汽车9月交付量均突破4万辆，将造车新势 力销量排名前四的入围门槛提升至4万辆。 | | | | | 原川 1月 1 | 录川凹山 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 439777 | 上汽集团 | 21.0% | 40.4% | 3193270 | 20.5% | | 396270 | 比如防电 | 6.1% | -5.5% | 3260146 | 18.6% | | 302000 | 中国一汽 | 8.7% | 6.3% | 2383000 | 5.6% | | 280469 | 奇瑞集团 | 15.5% | 14.7% | 2007768 | 14.5% | | 273125 | 吉利汽车集团 | 9.2% | 3 ...

随着9月车市销量出炉，国内车市第四季度销售旺季也正式拉开，车企开始围绕年底冲量目标发力，行 业竞争将进入更激烈阶段。 造车新势力销量表现迎来变化，零跑汽车以超6.66万辆的交付量，不仅刷新自身单月销量纪录，更成为 首个月销突破6万辆的新势力品牌。赛力斯（601127）、小鹏汽车、小米汽车9月交付量均突破4万辆， 将造车新势力销量排名前四的入围门槛提升至4万辆。 进入"金九银十"销售旺季，创新高、翻倍增长成为9月销量"成绩单"频繁出现的关键词。 吉利、长安等头部企业，通过新能源车型与海外市场的双重发力，巩固市场地位。9月，吉利汽车新能 源车型销量达16.52万辆，同比增长81%，环比增长12%，长安汽车（000625）、长城汽车（601633）新 能源销量分别同比增长87%、52.55%；9月上述3家车企海外销售分别为4.1万辆、6万辆和5万辆，均实 现同比增长。 自主车企在"金九"销售季中也展现出了不少重要变化，在新能源板块的全面发力、海外市场的规模化突 破和依托技术研发进行差异化竞争使得增长势头尤为强劲。比亚迪（002594）以39.63万辆的新能源汽 车销量成绩领跑，海外销售7.1万辆；今年前9个月，比亚 ...

在刚刚过去的假期 国庆、中秋双节同庆 在 政府补贴加持、 房企大力促销的双重利好下，市场认购活跃，不少项目推出新品房源或创新优惠玩法，带动"银十"销售旺季迎来开门红，江门房地产 市场呈现稳中提质的火热态势。 来看看这组数据 根据江门市住房和城乡建设局初步统计数据，10月1—8日全市主要房地产项目认购 住宅约1220套，成交面积约为12.98万平方米，成交金额为10.64亿元， 成交均价为8202元每平方米，量价表现稳健。 从区域表现看， 台山市认购住宅346套、开平市认购住宅247套、蓬江区认购住宅195套位居前列；此外， 新会区认购住宅131套、江海区认购住宅103套、 鹤山市认购住宅107套、恩平市认购住宅88套，各区县表现均有亮点。 今年以来，江门持续推出"好房子"建设相关活动。9月，江门开展"好房子·江门造——江门'好房子'调研暨'房地产+'模式研讨活动"，通过权威专家主题分 享和行业大咖圆桌研讨等多元形式，构建出"政府牵头引导、房企互动交流、专家智力赋能、媒体广泛传播"的协同链条，受到行业高度关注与积极反响。 江门楼市迎来一波火热行情 多个楼盘售楼处人气旺盛 看房客络绎不绝 另一方面，补贴福利落地， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on October 10, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Red dates rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal rose over 1%. Container shipping to Europe and live pigs dropped over 3%, and eggs and polysilicon fell over 2%. Many other commodities also had varying degrees of decline [5]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:21 on October 10, polysilicon 2511, cotton yarn 2601, and rapeseed meal 2601 had capital inflows, while Shanghai gold 2512, Shanghai silver 2512, and rebar 2601 had large - scale capital outflows [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Shanghai copper opened high, declined during the day, and closed flat. Due to mine - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the failure of Panama to resume production, supply concerns increased. In September, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. Although the real estate sector is a drag, new technologies support downstream demand. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle, copper prices are expected to rise mainly in a volatile manner [9]. Lithium Carbonate - After the holiday, lithium carbonate opened and closed lower. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in the peak season. After the Tibetan Mining obtained the mining right, the supply - demand remains loose. The market is in the stage of shock consolidation [10][11]. Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to increase production in November, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak season is over, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has recovered, and the expected production in October is high. The downstream demand is affected by funds and rainfall. With the weakening of crude oil prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13][14]. PP - The downstream PP operating rate has increased slightly, but the peak - season demand is less than expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, PP is expected to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but the performance is not as expected. With the increase in supply and the decline in crude oil prices, plastic is expected to decline in a volatile manner [17]. PVC - The PVC operating rate has increased, but the downstream demand is low. The export expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. With the cost weakening, PVC is expected to decline under pressure [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed higher. The supply is expected to gradually recover, and the demand remains stable. The market will fluctuate within a narrow range [20]. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower. The supply is high, and the demand is affected by weather and holidays. The futures price has fallen below the key level, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the spot market [21][22].

9月份，刚需小区仍然是市场成交主力，并有扩张态势。 二手住宅成交量TOP20榜单中，近远郊刚需盘占大头：有13个上榜小区网签单价在"1字头"（包括1万元/㎡以内）。 杭州贝壳研究院数据统计，9月杭州二手房共6377套房源网签，同比去年9月的6033套涨幅约5.7%。 这13个小区，分布在闲林、南部新城、青山湖科技城、大江东等板块，而青山湖科技城的越秀星汇城和中天珺府网签均价更是低至八九千元，9 月份成交套数分别为23套、16套，本月下沙没有小区入榜。 | | | | 2025年9月二手房网签量TOP20小区 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 商圈 | Books (三) | 图片: 201 元/平米 | | | | 1 | 江湘云庐 | 南部卧城 | 29 | 1565 | -6% | -4% | | 2 | 成秀星汇城 | 青山湖科技城 | 23 | 8762 | -12% | -6% | | 3 | 中天珺府 | 青山湖科技城 | 16 | વેત્રર | 45% | -10% | | 4 | 绿城蓝庭 | 乐湖 | 14 ...

这一销售高峰与9月以来的"新车潮"密切相关。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，仅9月22 日至28日，国内车市就有18款新车上市或亮相，包括理想i6、问界M7、尚界H5等多款车型。 多款新车的集中发布直接带动了门店客流与订单量的攀升。一位鸿蒙智行销售人员透露，以新 款智界R7为例，假期期间订车仍需等待4至6周才能交付。 （鸿蒙智行一批新车正等待交付 本报记者焦文娟/摄） 行业层面，"金九"成色初步显现。 乘联会数据显示，9月1日至27日，乘用车市场零售销量达 177.6万辆，环比增长12%。 记者丨 焦文娟 编辑丨包芳鸣 金珊 国庆中秋假期（下文简称："双节"），车市热度延续。记者发现，有品牌车型价格一口气 下 调近7万元，还有部分车型补贴高达5万元。 10月8日晚间，鸿蒙智行公布假期大定数据，9月30日至10月7日累计大定突破4.85万辆。 一是明确从2026年1月1日起，新能源汽车购置税将"免征"改为"减半征收" ，这意味着消费者 购车成本将最高增加1.5万元。 二是国家层面的"以旧换新"补贴政策在部分省份已于9月提前 结束。 一位经销商人士分析称，这种"错过就不再"的预期，促使大量观望中的消费者选择 ...