Report Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ (Predicted to trend upwards with the trend fermenting on the market) [1] - **Silicon Ferros**: ★★★ (Predicted to trend upwards with good investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market has small supply - demand contradictions, with the market sentiment being cautious, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and their prices are likely to fluctuate strongly due to market expectations of coal - related policies [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market has a fragile balance in manganese ore port inventory, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - The silicon ferros market is relatively strong due to policy influence, and demand remains resilient. It is also recommended to buy on dips [8]. Summary by Category Steel - Today's steel futures market continued to fluctuate narrowly. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation slowed. The demand for hot - rolled coils improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits were marginally repaired, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and molten iron increased in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed. From the downstream industries, real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. The overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased seasonally, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remained high in the short term, and port inventory continued to increase. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off - season improved month - on - month, some blast furnaces that had regular maintenance before resumed production, and molten iron production increased from a low level. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased continuously but was still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market was volatile, and the fundamental situation of iron ore was relatively loose [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. The coke transaction price increased sporadically, the coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly. The coke inventory hardly changed. Attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume will increase next week, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level. The steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coke futures price is at a premium, but the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,519 trucks. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the resumption of production after the New Year's Day was good. The spot auction transactions continued to improve, and the transaction price increased slightly driven by the rising futures price. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased significantly, with the production - end inventory rising sharply. Similar to coke, the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron is likely to bottom out and rebound. The current demand for raw materials remains at the off - season level, the steel profit level is average, and the sentiment of pressing down raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal futures price is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Driven by the futures market rebound, the spot price of manganese ore increased. There are structural problems in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, the molten iron production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [7]. Silicon Ferros - The silicon ferros price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increased, and there were certain expectations of a decline in power costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production rebounded to a high - level range. The export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon ferros decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached a record high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night session, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million, and domestic new car sales accounted for over 50%. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million, and new energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, doubling year-on-year [1] - In December 2025, China exported 536 ships; from January to December, the cumulative export was 6,690 ships, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [1] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 automobiles; from January to December, the cumulative export was 8.324 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 30.0% [1] - From 2014 to 2024, the indirect steel exports of 74 countries increased from 325 million tons to 410 million tons, an increase of 26%. In 2024, the indirect steel trade volume was equivalent to 93% of the direct export volume [1] Market Logic - In 2025, automobile production and sales reached a new high with a high growth rate of about 10%. In 2026, production and sales are expected to continue to increase, but the growth rate will slow down significantly. In the short term, steel supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory rises [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, it is volatile. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The latest inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate. With the weakening demand, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, especially for rebar and wire rods. The supply pressure is gradually rising as steel mills resume production with the repair of profits. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased significantly, and the terminal consumption will continue to decline in the off - season. The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery trend, while the downstream construction consumption weakens. The supply - demand contradiction in the industry will gradually accumulate. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly due to the support of macro - policies and cost, but the weak demand still suppresses the market [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments have slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited incremental shipments in the first quarter due to seasonal factors. However, the previous shipments have turned into domestic arrivals, and the port inventory still has the pressure of accumulation, with the current port inventory reaching a new high in recent years. On the demand side, the molten iron output continues to rise in the short term, and steel mills continue to replenish stocks slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the market expects that the winter storage replenishment of steel mills may accelerate, providing some support for the ore price in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies Rebar - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products starts to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8]. - **Supply**: As steel profits recover, some steel mills resume production, molten iron output rises, and finished product output increases slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products declines, terminal consumption weakens in the off - season, and speculative demand is limited [8]. - **View**: The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery, while demand weakens, and the supply - demand contradiction accumulates. The steel price is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments have decreased, while domestic arrivals have increased. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10]. - **Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of 247 steel mills have increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continues to increase, and the steel mill inventory has also increased [10]. - **View**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment of steel mills provides short - term support for the ore price [10]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of iron ore is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, the RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3294 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar main - contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - The apparent consumption and trading volume of steel products are presented in relevant charts, showing the consumption and trading situation of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased [12]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. is presented in relevant charts. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8][12]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Steel Output**: The output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, etc. is presented in relevant charts. With the recovery of steel profits, the output of finished products has increased slightly [8][12]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is presented in relevant charts, with the profitability rate of 247 steel mills at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the previous week [10][12]. - **Blast Furnace Steel Mill**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [10][12]. - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mill**: The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric furnaces are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [12]. - **Molten Iron and Scrap Steel**: The molten iron output and scrap steel consumption are presented in relevant charts, with the molten iron output increasing [12]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Global Shipment**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10][145]. - **Australia - Brazil Shipment**: The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2666.5 tons, a decrease of 317.2 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments decreased by 165.7 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 151.5 tons [10][149]. - **Arrival Volume**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons [10][162]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17044.44 tons, an increase of 322.65 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of steel mills also increased [10][166]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory of national steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons compared with the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore increased, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased [10][182].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The destocking of the five major steel products continued during the pre - holiday market. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, with prices forming some support at low levels. The market drivers were limited, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Overall, the destocking may gradually slow down, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Iron ore is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but high port inventories will put pressure on its subsequent trend. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the pre - holiday market, the five major steel products continued to destock. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, and prices at low levels provided some support. The market drivers were limited, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil both increased production. Rebar's weekly output was 188.22 tons (up 2.08% week - on - week and down 8.64% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 304.51 tons (up 3.74% week - on - week and up 0.58% year - on - year). Rebar's blast furnace and electric furnace production both increased. The blast furnace weekly output was 157.49 tons (up 1.62% week - on - week and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly output was 30.73 tons (up 4.49% week - on - week and up 8.17% year - on - year) [13][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces both increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.94% (up 0.79% week - on - week and up 0.29% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 68.63% (up 1.48% week - on - week and up 1.13% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: Rebar's profit increased, while hot - rolled coil's profit slightly decreased. Rebar's profit was +48 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's profit was - 29 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: Rebar's demand slightly decreased, while hot - rolled coil's demand increased. Rebar's apparent consumption was 200.44 tons (down 1.11% week - on - week and up 5.47% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.66 tons (down 1.54% week - on - week and down 8.07% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's apparent consumption was 310.77 tons (up 1.21% week - on - week and up 2.66% year - on - year) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Rebar's inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar's factory inventory was 139.37 tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and up 14.76% year - on - year), social inventory was 282.66 tons (down 3.92% week - on - week and down 1.53% year - on - year), and total inventory was 422.03 tons (down 2.81% week - on - week and up 3.31% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's inventory decreased, with factory inventory rising and social inventory decreasing. Factory inventory was 82.32 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week and up 0.59% year - on - year), social inventory was 288.64 tons (down 2.72% week - on - week and up 24.01% year - on - year), and total inventory was 370.96 tons (down 1.66% week - on - week and up 20.79% year - on - year) [37][41][42][46]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both the commercial housing and land markets declined month - on - month. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and 16.33% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 74.78% month - on - month and 49.44% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [47][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.92 (up 1.05% month - on - month and up 11.23% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 tons (up 8.70% month - on - month and up 23.36% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons (up 5.96% month - on - month and down 2.75% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased. The daily output of hot metal was 227.43 tons (up 0.85 tons week - on - week and up 2.23 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 325.21 tons (up 3.22% week - on - week and up 2.18% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.88 days (up 0.76% week - on - week and down 9.2% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventories continued to reach new highs, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventories increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15970.89 tons (up 0.71% week - on - week and up 6.45% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8949.54 tons (up 0.97% week - on - week and down 9.25% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 25.42 days (up 0.95% week - on - week and down 7.43% year - on - year) [66][70]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased month - on - month, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 79.63% (down 5.44% month - on - month and down 10.21% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 35.09% (down 3.39% month - on - month and up 7.37% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 19.05 tons (up 49.47% month - on - month and up 33.49% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased month - on - month. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 65.25% (down 4.07% month - on - month and down 4.47% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 71.74% (down 12.94% week - on - week and up 54.91% year - on - year) [77][79]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants slightly recovered month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 14 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 2 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.74% (up 0.55% month - on - month and down 2.45% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 85.58% (up 0.07% month - on - month and down 0.34% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventories increased month - on - month, and coking plant inventories increased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 896.10 tons (up 1.42% month - on - month and up 1.02% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 802.50 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month and up 3.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 301.3 tons (up 0.60% month - on - month and down 39.59% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventories increased slightly, and coking plant inventories decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 48.7 tons (down 2.87% month - on - month and down 3.91% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 643.99 tons (up 0.28% month - on - month and down 1.67% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 180.09 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month and up 4.57% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 220 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][102]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil both shrank. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore shrank [104][108].

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures market is experiencing slight declines, with the main contract reported at 3123.00 yuan, down 0.45% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the rebar market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term [1] - Guodu Futures suggests light positions ahead of the holiday, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - New Century Futures anticipates that steel prices will continue to oscillate at the bottom, influenced by recent policy changes and production plans [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of five major steel products is reported at 7.9682 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.1%, while total inventory stands at 12.5799 million tons, down 2.8% [2] - The consumption of construction materials has decreased by 3.2% week-on-week, while plate consumption has increased by 1.4% [2] - The market is shifting focus from "de-stocking in the off-season" to "timing and speed of inventory accumulation," suggesting potential pressure on prices, especially for construction materials [2] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent policy changes include export license management and a focus on controlling high-energy projects, which may create short-term positive sentiment [3] - The implementation of export licenses is expected to limit steel exports, leading to a downward adjustment in export expectations for next year [3] - The overall steel price is projected to remain under pressure due to these policy changes and the anticipated production adjustments in January [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and the winter storage has not arrived yet. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, threaded rod production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Threaded rod apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant drop in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the sharp rebound in coal and coke prices has increased the cost support for the market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel products briefly fell below the oscillation range and then quickly rebounded. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the threaded rod and hot - rolled coil main contracts, as well as their spot prices, all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous week. For example, the threaded rod main contract closing price was 3126 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spread**: There were changes in the basis and spreads of various steel products. For example, the threaded rod main basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2] - **Production**: The production of threaded rods by national building material steel mills increased by 1.62% to 181.68 million tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.44% to 291.91 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with the social inventory of the five major varieties dropping by 3.74% to 906.47 million tons [2] - **Apparent demand**: The overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 0.53% to 835.28 million tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival restocking demand will also arrive later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management have been fully digested by the market [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 781.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.78% from the previous week. The prices of various iron ore powders at ports also changed to different extents [4][5] - **Basis and spread**: There were fluctuations in the basis and spreads of iron ore futures, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread increasing by 6.0 yuan/dry ton compared to the previous week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 3.41% to 1703.9 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 8.77% to 747.6 million tons [5] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.53% to 15512.63 million tons, while the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 1.52% to 1180.48 million tons [5] 3.3 Industry News - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining of mineral resources. As of now, inspections have been completed in Guangxi, Hubei, and other places [7] - As of the week of December 21st, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 million tons to 3464.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 million tons to 2814.7 million tons [7] - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 137.9 million tons to 2790.2 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 76.7 million tons to 2646.7 million tons [7] - On the 22nd, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered their coke procurement prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Hebei market also lowered their coke procurement prices [8] - An alloy factory in Inner Mongolia's Chayouqianqi has successively ignited the first and second silicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces and plans to ignite the third before the Spring Festival in 2026 and the fourth after the Spring Festival [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Steel Weekly Report 20251222 [2] - Report Type: Steel Industry Research - Analysts: Zhou Guisheng, Duan Yiwen [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with steel prices fluctuating. The profitability of steel mills remains low, iron - water production continues to decline, and there is a transfer of iron - water production. Although the demand for rebar has rebounded, it will still weaken in the off - season. The inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory still has pressure, with the fundamentals not improving and the end - user demand remaining weak. In the short term, the market will fluctuate [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar production increased, with the weekly production of major steel mills in the country reaching 181.68 tons (+2.9). Hot - rolled coil production decreased significantly, with a weekly production of 291.91 tons (-16.8) [5]. - **Demand**: Steel demand is seasonally weak. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 208.64 tons (+5.55), and that for hot - rolled coil was 298.28 tons (-13.69) [5]. - **Inventory**: Steel inventory is being depleted, but the hot - rolled coil inventory is depleting at a slower pace. The total rebar inventory is 452.54 tons (-26.96), the social inventory is 313 tons (-25.7), and the steel - mill inventory is 139.54 tons (-1.26). The total hot - rolled coil inventory is 390.72 tons (-6.37), the social inventory is 307.3 tons (-5.76), and the steel - mill inventory is 83.42 tons (-0.61) [5]. - **Basis**: The basis has narrowed. The basis of the rebar main contract is 181 yuan/ton (-29), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 1 yuan/ton (-7) [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 35.93%. Iron - water production continues to decline to 226.55 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate is 78.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate is 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The EAF operating rate is 69.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5%. The EAF capacity utilization rate is 54.34%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [5]. 2. Price Information - As of December 19, the average price of rebar in major cities across the country is 3325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The average price of hot - rolled coils across the country is 3296 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Raw Material Analysis - The cost side still has support. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1480 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang is 1500 yuan/ton (a week - on - week decrease of 5), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 795 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 13) [19]. 4. Production - Related Data - Iron - water production continues to decline, while the EAF operating rate is rising. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has increased. As of December 19, the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan is 92.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9% [22][32]. 5. Demand - Related Data - Rebar demand has rebounded, while hot - rolled coil demand has decreased significantly. As of December 19, the weekly average trading volume of rebar is 9.92 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3.03 tons. The downstream cold - rolled production is 86.09 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 tons [42][48][53]. 6. Inventory Data - The inventory of main steel products has decreased. As of December 19, the billet inventory in Tangshan is 69.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.09 tons. The inventory of main steel products is 906.69 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35.29 tons [57]. 7. Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Export**: In November, steel exports were 998 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.78 tons. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 183.03 tons [69]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,300 vehicles. Automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106,900 tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 vehicles. New - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108,000 tons [73]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to November, real - estate investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing construction area was 20.5%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion area was 18%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 7.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales volume was 11.1%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 11.9% [76].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and winter storage has not yet arrived. The implementation of the steel export licensing system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For steel, multi - orders can be held lightly and added in small quantities on dips. [2] - For iron ore, with the arrival of the off - season for consumption, iron ore demand is under pressure as steel mills cut production. The supply is at a high level, and port inventories are rising. The market should be treated with a shock mindset, and multi - orders can be held lightly for mid - term trading without chasing up or selling down. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, thread production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Thread apparent demand rebounded, while the apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. [2] - **Cost Support**: The sharp rebound in coking coal prices in recent days has increased the cost support for the futures market. [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract briefly fell below the shock range on the daily K - line chart and then rebounded quickly. It has not yet broken out of the recent shock range or formed a downward breakthrough. [2] - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold multi - orders lightly and add small quantities on dips. [2] - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different changes. The basis and spreads of various contracts also changed. The production, inventory, and apparent demand of steel products showed different trends. For example, the production of thread steel increased by 1.62%, and the social inventory of thread steel decreased by 7.59%. [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased last week. As the off - season for consumption arrives, iron ore demand is under pressure as steel mills cut production. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Chinese New Year. [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices. [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has not yet broken out of the wide - range shock trend at a relatively high level. [4] - **Operation Suggestions**: Hold multi - orders lightly for mid - term trading. Treat the market with a shock mindset and avoid chasing up or selling down. [4] - **Data Summary**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore, basis, and spreads of various contracts, overseas shipments, shipping costs, exchange rates, port inventories, and other data showed different changes. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract increased by 2.56% compared with last week. [4] 3.3 Industry News - At the 2026 Steel Market Outlook and "My Steel" Annual Conference, it was proposed that the key to the steel industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period is to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity, and steel inventory control should be in line with the 2021 level. [6] - The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicted that China's steel consumption in 2025 may be 808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the demand in 2026 may be 800 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. [6] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses of coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin from 170 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton, effective from the JM2701 contract. [6] - The inventory of manganese - silicon enterprises increased, while the inventory of silicon - iron enterprises decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased, and iron ore port inventories increased. [7][8] - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency response. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, with high inventory pressure. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For steel, it is recommended to hold long positions lightly, and consider reducing or closing positions if a new downward trend forms. Do not short at the current position [2]. - For iron ore, demand is expected to decline as steel production decreases with the arrival of the off - season, and supply is at a high level with rising port inventories. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading, and approach it with a range - bound mindset without chasing highs or lows [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased week - on - week, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to decline. The inventory of hot - rolled coils is still significantly higher than the historical average, while the de - stocking pressure for threaded rods is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, indicating a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the passing of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. The sharp drop in coking coal prices has weakened the cost support for steel [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel is still in a range - bound trend. After a significant gap - down opening, it rebounded but has not broken out of the recent trading range [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. If the market continues to fall and forms a new downward trend, consider reducing or closing positions. Do not short at the current position [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as most spot prices, have declined compared to last week. The blast furnace operating rate, average daily hot metal output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils has declined, and the overall inventory of the five major steel products has decreased, but the inventory of hot - rolled coils in steel mills has increased. The apparent demand has declined, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts has decreased [3]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased week - on - week. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. Steel mill production cuts are putting pressure on raw material prices. The pre - holiday restocking demand will come later this year due to the late Spring Festival [5]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are still at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories is suppressing futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management will affect exports next year, putting relatively greater pressure on iron ore [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract of iron ore has not broken out of the wide - range trading pattern at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly for medium - term trading. Approach it with a range - bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows [5]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement prices of most iron ore contracts and spot prices have declined compared to last week. The shipment volume from Australia has increased, while that from Brazil has decreased. The arrival volume at northern ports has decreased, the average daily port clearance volume has decreased slightly, and the total port inventory has increased. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills has decreased [5]. 3.3. Industry News - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 186.9 million tons (a 2.8% increase in daily output month - on - month); 1714 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 171.4 million tons (a 3.4% decrease in daily output month - on - month); and 1829 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 182.9 million tons (a 12.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month) [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2928.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 358.9 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2723.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 242.9 million tons; and at six northern ports, it was 1358.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79.8 million tons [7]. - From December 8th to 14th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3592.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 224.0 million tons. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2965.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 310.2 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 2052.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 85.2 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1702.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113.9 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 912.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 225.0 million tons [7].

Core Insights - The inventory of five major steel materials decreased by 2.45% to 13.32 million tons, the lowest since this year's Spring Festival, while production fell by 2.74% to 8.06 million tons, and apparent demand dropped to 8.40 million tons, marking a recent historical low with a decline of 2.83% [2][52][47] - The macroeconomic outlook has short-term support, but the fundamental industry data remains average, indicating a persistent weak supply-demand balance in the steel market [2][52] Supply Analysis - The weekly production of five major steel materials totaled 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons compared to the previous week [53] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.63%, down 1.53 percentage points week-on-week and 1.92 percentage points year-on-year [67] - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 31,000 tons to 2.29 million tons, marking the first time it fell below 2.30 million tons since March of this year [36][67] Demand Analysis - Short-term macro expectations have temporarily settled, but the recovery of terminal real estate data is below expectations, particularly for rebar demand, which is at a historical low [28][77] - As of December 9, the funding availability rate for sample construction sites was 59.74%, with non-residential projects at 60.89% and residential projects at 54.13% [28][77] Inventory Analysis - The social inventory of steel in major cities was 9.41 million tons, down 368,100 tons week-on-week, while the inventory of steel mills increased by 33,100 tons to 3.90 million tons [30][79] - The total inventory of social and mill steel reached 13.32 million tons, a decrease of 33,500 tons, indicating a clear trend of seasonal destocking [30][79] Profitability Analysis - The average profit margin for saturated production increased by 5 yuan to -24 yuan per ton, while profits from electric arc furnaces rose to 84 yuan per ton, the highest in over four months [36][53] - The proportion of profitable independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased by 4.13% to 34.71%, while the proportion of loss-making mills decreased by 2.48% to 14.88%, the lowest in three and a half months [36][53] Price Movement - The main rebar contract RB2605 fluctuated weakly, closing at 3,069 yuan per ton, down 106 yuan week-on-week, with an open interest of 1.6021 million lots [54] - The hot-rolled coil contract HC2605 also showed a weak trend, closing at 3,238 yuan per ton, down 94 yuan week-on-week [56]