1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel market, in the off - season of consumption, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is still high, but the market's expectation for the policy side has increased. Technically, the futures price of steel is oscillating upwards at a low level and may form an upward breakthrough. It is recommended to go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - For the iron ore market, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, but the policy side provides support. Technically, the 01 - contract futures price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, but it is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level. It is recommended to go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the thread production decreased, the hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of the five major varieties increased month - on - month. The overall inventory continued to decline, but the hot - rolled coil inventory was still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure compared to thread. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, the steel mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a phased negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have also shown signs of weakening, weakening the cost support for steel [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position, add a small amount of positions on pullbacks, and hold the positions in the medium - term [2]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The closing price of the thread steel main contract was 3169 yuan/ton, up 2.26% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3324 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from last week [2]. - **Production**: The national building materials steel mill thread steel production was 206.08 tons, down 0.90% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production was 319.01 tons, up 0.95% from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 1007.32 tons, down 2.15% from last week; the thread social inventory was 384.75 tons, down 3.82% from last week; the hot - rolled coil social inventory was 322.88 tons, down 0.37% from last week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of demand, last week, the iron ore output of sample steel mills decreased significantly month - on - month. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, the iron ore demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the steel mills' production cuts will suppress the raw material prices. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase after a period. Currently, the rising port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also suppresses the overall market sentiment, but the policy side provides support [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position and add positions on short - term pullbacks [4]. - **Data**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 799.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.83% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 104.2 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.31% from last week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1653.8 tons, down 1.37% from last week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 822.8 tons, up 15.50% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The total port inventory was 15210.12 tons, up 1.03% from last week; the port trade ore inventory was 10280.7 tons, up 1.58% from last week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent out, marking that this world - class iron ore mine that has been dormant for nearly 30 years has officially opened up the entire industrial chain channel of "mine - railway - port - shipping" [6]. - In October, the national stainless steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22% [7]. - In November, 42 national building materials production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 9 more than the previous month. The production reduction and maintenance in November affected the iron ore output by 437,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 125.52%; it affected the crude steel output by 697,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.19% [7]. - As of the week ending December 3, the national building materials output was 4.3509 million tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from last week; the social inventory was 4.4779 million tons, a decrease of 231,700 tons from last week; the total inventory was 8.2315 million tons, a decrease of 419,800 tons from last week; the apparent demand was 4.7707 million tons, a decrease of 49,600 tons from last week [7].

Report on the Steel Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is in a state of reducing production and inventory, with relatively minor contradictions. Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3250 - 3400. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has converged to 180, and it can continue to be held. Considering the decline in hot metal, which suppresses iron ore prices, one can focus on the long - rebar and short - ore arbitrage operation in the January contract [1]. 3. Summary by Section Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3220 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3169 yuan/ton, 3203 yuan/ton, and 3137 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3300 yuan/ton, 3240 yuan/ton, and 3340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3324 yuan/ton, 3337 yuan/ton, and 3319 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet price is 2990 yuan/ton, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar cost is 3245 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3177 yuan/ton [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit is - 34 yuan/ton, North China rebar profit is - 114 yuan/ton, and South China rebar profit is 206 yuan/ton. East China hot - rolled coil profit is - 24 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production - Daily average hot metal output is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. The output of five major steel products is 855.7 tons, an increase of 5.8 tons or 0.7%. Rebar output is 206.1 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons or 0.9%. Among them, electric - arc furnace output is 29.3 tons, an increase of 2.6 tons or 9.5%, and converter output is 176.7 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil output is 319.0 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 32.3 tons or 2.3%. Rebar inventory is 531.5 tons, a decrease of 21.9 tons or 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons or 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 9.0 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products is 888.0 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons or 0.7%. The apparent demand for rebar is 227.9 tons, a decrease of 2.8 tons or 1.2%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 320.2 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons or 1.3% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 750 - 820. The supply side shows that the global iron ore shipment volume increased week - on - week last week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin continued to decline, hot metal output decreased, and steel mill maintenance increased. With the rebound of steel prices, there is room for raw material price increases. The downstream demand is expected to pick up, and the hot metal output has no basis for a large - scale decline, which supports the iron ore demand [3]. 3. Summary by Section Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: The warehouse receipt cost of Karara fines is 803.3 yuan/ton, PB fines is 844.7 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 847.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 843.5 yuan/ton [3]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis for Karara fines is 3.8 yuan/ton, PB fines is 45.2 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 47.5 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 44.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Spreads: The 5 - 9 spread is 24.0 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread is - 46.5 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is 22.5 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices at Rizhao Port: Karara fines is 883.0 yuan/ton, PB fines is 796.0 yuan/ton, Brazilian blended fines is 824.0 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba fines is 741.0 yuan/ton [3]. - Price indexes: The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 107.4 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe is 107.8 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons or 4.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3323.2 tons, an increase of 44.8 tons or 1.4%. The national monthly import volume is 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 500.6 tons or 4.3% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 234.7 tons, a decrease of 1.6 tons or 0.7%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 330.6 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons or 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron output is 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 49.7 tons or 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel output is 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 149.3 tons or 2.0% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 15237.39 tons, an increase of 27.3 tons or 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 58.8 tons or 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged from the previous value [3]. Report on the Coke Industry 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Coke: The coke futures are expected to oscillate. The reference range is 1550 - 1700. The first round of price reduction for coke has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further price reduction in the short term. The supply side has some changes in production, and the demand side is affected by steel mill losses and maintenance. The inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coke is recommended [7]. - Coking coal: The coking coal futures are expected to oscillate within the range of 1050 - 1150. The spot market is weak, and the supply side has production changes. The demand side's replenishment demand is weakening. An arbitrage strategy of short - 01 and long - 05 for coking coal is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Section Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1662 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) is 1603 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coke 01 contract is 1625 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1752 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is 5 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is - 149 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Spot prices: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) is 1300 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) is 1205 yuan/ton [7]. - Futures prices: The coking coal 01 contract is 1071 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract is 1165 yuan/ton [7]. - Basis: The 01 - contract basis is - 22 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 20 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 1.7%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.2% [7]. - Coking coal production: The output of sample coal mines (weekly) has a certain change, and the daily output of coal mines has decreased slightly [7]. Demand - Coke demand: Affected by the decline in hot metal output of steel mills, the demand for coke is weakening [7]. - Coking coal demand: With the recovery of coking plant profits and a slight increase in production, the replenishment demand for coking coal is weakening [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory is 884.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons or 0.5%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 71.8 tons, an increase of 6.5 tons or 9.94%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 625.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 187.4 tons, a decrease of 5.6 tons or - 2.94% [7]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 27.9 tons or - 2.7%. The inventory of 247 steel mills is 801.3 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons or 0.5%. The port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons or 1.0% [7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, during the consumption off - season, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, with large inventory pressure, but the market is more focused on policy expectations. For the iron ore market, the decline in iron - water production and slow inventory reduction in the steel market suppress prices, while policy factors provide support [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, threaded rod production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. Overall inventory continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventory was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills' production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Recently, coal and coke prices have shown a weakening trend, weakening the cost support for steel [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price fluctuated upward at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and there is a possibility of an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the iron - water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will come later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from a high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also affects market sentiment. However, policies support the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract's futures price has broken through the suppression of the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market for medium - term long - positions [4] 3.3 Industry News - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2139 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 822,000 tons, a slight rebound. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter [6] - As of December 2nd, 2025, two steel mills announced winter storage policies, with one in Northeast China and one in North China. Two new steel mills were added today, with fixed - price locked - in goods, no price increase in case of market rise, price decrease in case of market fall, and the option to set the price at any time. The price is guaranteed until March 31st, 2026 [6] - According to Longzhong Information, the 600 - ton production line of Benxi Fuyao Float Glass Co., Ltd. was ignited on November 29th. As of December 1st, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% month - on - month to 10.1 days, a year - on - year decrease of 17.9% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the commodity market maintained an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices oscillating in the bottom area. Rebar showed a neutral performance with both supply and demand declining and inventory continuously decreasing. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory only decreased slightly. The decision by South Korea to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production cuts. Macro - level important meetings in early December need continuous tracking [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 50 yuan/ton, the gross profit has a slight increase, and the futures premium is about 3 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [7] - Supply side: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.3% for the single week and about 2.0% for the cumulative year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, with a larger - than - expected decline. The hot - rolled coil production is high, and the supply pressure is large [7] - Demand side: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.4% for the single week and about 1.4% for the cumulative year. Affected by weak infrastructure and manufacturing demand, the current plate demand is weak [8] - Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 400,900 tons, at a high level with significant inventory pressure [9] - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price ratios with other products such as rebar and iron ore [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [56][58] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [60][64][70] 4. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the prices of related products such as steel billets [76][78][81] 5. Supply Side - Hot - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, and production in different regions (north, south, and east China) are shown, along with capacity utilization rates [91][93][94] - Cold - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, production in different regions, and capacity utilization rates are presented [99][102][103] - Coated plate production: Weekly production and capacity utilization rates of color - coated and galvanized plates are provided [104][105] 6. Demand Side - Hot - rolled coil consumption: Apparent consumption, cumulative year - on - year growth, and consumption - related data of downstream industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers are shown [108][109][111]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Neutral, Attention" [1] Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity market remained in an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices fluctuating at the bottom. Fundamentally, both supply and demand of rebar declined, and inventory continued to decrease, showing a neutral performance. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's decision to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off-season, and there is still inventory pressure on hot-rolled coils. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production reduction. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate meeting and the Politburo meeting in early December require continuous tracking of policy directions and potential impacts [10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Supply - side - This week, the total rebar production was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.86%. The cumulative production was 101.7325 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.60%. Long - process production was 1.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.67%. Short - process production was 0.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.52% and a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The daily average hot metal production was 2346800 tons, and the decline of hot metal this week slightly exceeded expectations. Rebar production decreased slightly, and the supply - side pressure was low [6] Demand - side - This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The cumulative demand was 100.43 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. Demand declined slightly this week, showing a neutral - weak performance [7][8] Import and Export - In October, the import of steel billets was 30000 tons [9] Inventory - This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 29.8%. The factory inventory was 1.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The total inventory was 5.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. Rebar inventory continued to decrease, and the current inventory trend was relatively healthy [9] Profit - The hot metal cost was 2691 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 19 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 63 yuan/ton [9] Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 87 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.7% [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The 01 - contract basis was 87 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was 36 yuan/ton. The spread between rebar 01 - 05 was - 12 yuan/ton, the spread between rebar 05 - 10 was - 39 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar 10 - 01 was 51 yuan/ton. The Beijing hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 130 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), the Shanghai spread was 30 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou spread was - 160 yuan/ton (last week: - 110 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 20 yuan/ton (last week: 0 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was 133 yuan/ton (last week: 83 yuan/ton). The Beijing wire rod premium was 210 yuan/ton (last week: 220 yuan/ton), the Shanghai premium was 180 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 190 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton) [19][21][24] 3. Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The scrap steel arrival cost was 2186 yuan/ton, the hot metal cost was 3231 yuan/ton, and the average hot metal cost of 64 steel mills was 2691 yuan/ton [38][48] 4. Supply - side Weekly Production - This week, the total rebar production was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The cumulative production was 101.732 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. Long - process production was 1.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. Short - process production was 0.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [52] Capacity Utilization - This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53% (previous value: 52%) [55] Hot Metal Production - This week, the daily average hot metal production was 2.36 million tons (unchanged from the previous value) [59] Regional Production - The rebar production in the northern region was 0.46 million tons (unchanged from the previous value), and in the southern region was 0.77 million tons (previous value: 0.78 million tons). The rebar production in East China was 0.83 million tons, in Jiangsu was 0.34 million tons, in Shandong was 0.08 million tons, and in Anhui was 0.17 million tons. The rebar production in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.07 million tons [63][66][69] 5. Demand - side - The building materials trading volume was 117741 tons (last week: 105098 tons), and the Shanghai building materials trading volume was 19100 tons (unchanged from last week). The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.28 million tons, and in East China was 0.9 million tons. The weekly consumption of rebar in Southwest China was 0.37 million tons, in South China was 0.36 million tons, in North China was 0.19 million tons, in Central China was 0.18 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.12 million tons, and in Northwest China was 0.16 million tons [72][80][82] 6. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.8%, a year - on - year increase of 29.8%. The factory inventory was 1.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The total inventory was 5.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0%, a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.16 million tons (unchanged from the previous value). The 132 - city social rebar inventory was 5.46 million tons, the East China social inventory was 2.92 million tons, the Hangzhou social inventory was 0.89 million tons, and the Shanghai social inventory was 0.35 million tons. The South China social inventory was 0.51 million tons, the North China social inventory was 0.69 million tons, the Guangzhou social inventory was 0.12 million tons, and the Beijing social inventory was 0.27 million tons. The Central China social inventory was 0.38 million tons, the Northwest social inventory was 0.45 million tons, the Wuhan social inventory was 0.16 million tons, and the Xi'an social inventory was 0.19 million tons. The Southwest social inventory was 0.49 million tons, the Northeast social inventory was 0.34 million tons, the Chengdu social inventory was 0.21 million tons, and the Chongqing social inventory was 0.14 million tons [90][92][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel sector, due to a significant decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal prices have also shown signs of weakness, weakening the cost support for steel. Technically, steel futures prices are oscillating at low levels, and the oscillation range is narrowing, hinting at a potential breakout [2]. - For the iron ore sector, as the off - season for consumption approaches, iron ore production is expected to decline along the seasonal trend, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have rebounded from the peak, and port inventory is rising, which suppresses the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract price has broken through the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands but faces resistance from a dense trading area [4]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils Supply and Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased month - on - month, production rose, and overall inventory continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coils remained significantly higher than the historical average, with greater inventory pressure [2]. - The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 82.81%, down 0.32 percentage points; the average daily hot metal output was 236.28 million tons, down 0.60 million tons (0.25%); the proportion of profitable steel mills was 37.66%, down 1.30 percentage points [3]. - The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 207.96 million tons, up 7.96 million tons (3.98%); hot - rolled coil production was 316.01 million tons, up 2.35 million tons (0.75%) [3]. - The five - major steel product social inventory was 1029.41 million tons, down 31.98 million tons (3.01%); threaded steel social inventory was 400.02 million tons, down 15.73 million tons (3.78%); hot - rolled coil social inventory was 324.09 million tons, down 8.91 million tons (2.68%) [3]. Price and Basis - The closing price of the threaded steel futures main contract was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan from the previous day (1.05%) and down 8 yuan from last week (- 0.26%); the closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day (0.76%) and down 7 yuan from last week (- 0.21%) [3]. - The threaded steel main contract basis was 151 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the hot - rolled coil main contract basis was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for a pullback before going long for medium - term trading [2]. 2. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production decreased month - on - month, while the output of the five major steel products increased. As the off - season approaches, iron ore production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' output reduction will suppress raw material prices [4]. - Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from the peak, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices, and the slow destocking of steel dampens market sentiment [4]. Price and Basis - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 790.5 yuan/dry ton, up 5.0 yuan from the previous day (0.64%) and up 2.0 yuan from last week (0.25%) [4]. - The DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 52.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.0 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 28 yuan/dry ton, down 3.0 yuan [4]. Operation Suggestion Maintain a wait - and - see approach. Wait patiently for a price pullback before entering the market to go long for medium - term trading [4]. 3. Industry News - Due to heavy snow at the Ganqimao Port on the 24th, the outbound transportation in the domestic direction stopped at around 14:00. The number of customs - cleared vehicles on the 24th is expected to be less than 1000 [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3278.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 238.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2637.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 271.3 million tons [6]. - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2939.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 569.6 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 2817.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 548.2 million tons; at six northern ports, it was 1438.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 397.0 million tons [6]. - Two coal mines in Linfen Ancient County stopped production on November 20th - 21st, with a total approved capacity of 2.4 million tons, mainly producing coking coal. The pre - shutdown daily output of raw coal was 10,000 tons, and the resumption time is yet to be determined [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons (2.5%), showing a continuous downward trend [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand of steel products have both increased, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills is declining, and the terminal demand is still weak. Although the apparent demand has rebounded, the sustainability of the demand improvement is questionable due to seasonal factors. The cost side still provides support [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Steel Product Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0796 million tons (+79,600 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1601 million tons (+23,500 tons). Some steel mills have resumed production, increasing the supply pressure [5]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has rebounded. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.3079 million tons (+144,200 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2442 million tons (+108,300 tons). However, the sustainability of the demand improvement is questionable due to seasonal factors, and the terminal demand is still weak [5]. 3.2 Inventory - **Rebar**: The total inventory of rebar was 5.5334 million tons (-228,300 tons), the social inventory was 4.0002 million tons (-157,300 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 1.5332 million tons (-71,000 tons) [8]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.0211 million tons (-84,100 tons), the social inventory was 3.2409 million tons (-89,100 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 780,200 tons (+5,000 tons) [8]. 3.3 Price - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, the average national summary price of rebar was 3,268 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from last week; the average national summary price of hot - rolled coils was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [11]. - **Basis**: As of November 21, the basis of the rebar main contract was 163 yuan/ton (+26), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 0 yuan/ton (-4) [8][14]. 3.4 Raw Materials - **Price**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,480 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton) [16]. 3.5 Production Indicators - **Iron Water Production**: The iron water output was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous period [8][20]. - **Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Indicators**: As of November 21, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% month - on - month, the electric furnace operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [8]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 21, the profitability of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous period [8][24]. - **Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: As of November 21, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 91.20%, unchanged from the previous period [29]. 3.6 Other Market Data - **Steel Export**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a decrease of 690,000 tons from the previous month; from January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.6% [65]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, an increase of 466,000 vehicles from the previous month; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons from the previous month. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles from the previous month; new energy vehicle sales increased by 209,000 tons from the previous month [69]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9%, the completed area of houses decreased by 15.3%, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 5.5%, the sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.9%, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 8.4% [71][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - **Data**: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - **Supply**: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - **Data**: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. Although the weak reality continued to suppress steel prices, the expectation of maintenance production increased, market sentiment returned to rationality, market activity was fair, and raw material support was strong. As of November 14, the average price of 20mm grade - III seismic - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the short term, the steel market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the strengthening of coking coal and coke disturbances, the downward price space is limited. In the future, as the expectation of production reduction increases, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Price Performance**: This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. The average price of 20mm grade - III seismic - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3,241 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,425 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Steel has entered the off - season of demand. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate within a range. With the strengthening of coking coal and coke disturbances, the downward price space is limited. In the future, as the expectation of production reduction increases, the supply - demand relationship may improve periodically [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot metal output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 236.88 | 234.22 | 2.66 | 1.14% | Weekly | | Rebar mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 160.42 | 166.84 | - 6.42 | - 3.85% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 415.75 | 425.7 | - 9.95 | - 2.34% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil mill inventory | 10,000 tons | 77.52 | 77.43 | 0.09 | 0.12% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 333 | 333.02 | - 0.02 | - 0.01% | Weekly | [3]

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The investment performance in October was still weak, with further declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate, indicating poor domestic demand. However, exports maintained strong resilience, with the advantage of trading volume for price still intact [9] - The steel industry is currently in a production - cut phase. Since steel profit per ton has not suffered significant losses, production reduction has been slow, and inventory depletion of products like hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production may still have room to decline [9] - With insufficient driving forces and intensified long - short battles, the short - term fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 and valley - electricity cost. Prudent operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices were consolidating. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan, and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan [7] - On November 13, the total output of five major steel products decreased by 22.36 tons. The factory inventory of five major products decreased by 12.61 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 13.61 tons. The apparent demand was 860.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 tons [7] - As of November 14, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3181 yuan, with a profit of about - 21 yuan; the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 22 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - electricity cost of rebar was about 3262 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3131 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 202 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 71 yuan [7] Scrap Steel - As of November 13, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [8] - The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.1 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, an increase of 0.3% [8] - The average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 492.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.58 tons, an increase of 1.4% [8] Other Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023 [18] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the same period in 2024; the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] - The PMI in October 2025 was 49% [22] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [26] - From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9% [29] 2. Main Variety Basis and Spread - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar shrank [39] 3. Supply Long - Process Supply - As of November 14, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points or 1.13%. The average daily pig iron output was 236.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons or 1.14% [42] Short - Process Supply - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. As of November 14, the iron - scrap price difference was 35.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan [45] Rebar Production - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 1.7191 million tons, a decrease of 73,800 tons; the short - process output was 28,090 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [57] 4. Demand Building Materials Transactions - Data on building materials transactions in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [60][62][63] Cement Mill Operating Rate - The average operating load of national cement mills was 37.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points, and the decline rate widened by 0.18 percentage points. Market demand mostly decreased, showing strong off - season characteristics [68] Real Estate Sales - Data on the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70] Rebar Inventory - This period, the original sample factory inventory of rebar was 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons; the social inventory was 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons; the total inventory was 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 163,700 tons [74] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 313,660 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons. The apparent demand was 313,590 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the total inventory increased by 700 tons [77] Plate Demand - As of November 14, the cold - hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 610 yuan/ton [84] Export Situation - As of November 14, China's FOB export price was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.3176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 399,100 tons or 13.7% [87]