1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, black commodities declined significantly, with iron ore and coking coal showing signs of catch - up decline. In August, steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand gap widened, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The rebar market weakened first, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened. - Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. However, high production levels still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. - Currently, steel prices have fallen from their highs. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have dropped to around 3100 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the profit per ton of steel has declined significantly. - In terms of operations, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited. One can sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the significant contraction of steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, one can consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global shipment volume of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume will continue to increase gradually in the short term. - During the military parade in Tangshan, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from its high but remained at around 2.4 million tons per day. The impact of production restrictions this week will be reflected in molten iron output. - In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the outbound shipment volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity iron ore inventory decreased month - on - month. - After the military parade, molten iron output will decline slightly from its high, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a significant increase in the fundamentals. Since steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, molten iron output will remain at a high level in September. - On the 28th, the work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume. The demand during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period is questionable. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Coke futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. After the spot price increase, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation has slightly declined following the futures. - On the supply side, after the price increase was implemented, coking profits improved, but due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places, coking enterprise operations decreased slightly. - On the demand side, the molten iron output from blast furnaces has declined from its high. This week, molten iron output may continue to decline, but the impact is limited due to the short duration. - In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all seen slight inventory increases. The overall inventory is at a medium level. - The steel industry's work plan for stabilizing growth is negative for coke demand. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation is running weakly. - On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, coal mine operations have decreased slightly month - on - month, sales have slowed down, and some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has fallen following the futures, and downstream users are cautious about restocking. - On the demand side, due to production restrictions on Tangshan steel and coking in Shandong and Henan before the military parade, coking operations have decreased slightly, and the molten iron output from downstream blast furnaces has declined slightly from its high. This week, operations may continue to decline. - In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and borders have seen slight inventory increases, while coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills have seen slight inventory decreases. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. - The production restrictions caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi are not enough to reverse the downward trend of the spot price. The coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and futures contracts have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3208 yuan/ton to 3165 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3347 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 3173 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 22 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 65,000 tons to 8.846 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace output increased by 15,000 tons to 313,000 tons, an increase of 5.0%, and the converter output increased by 44,000 tons to 1.893 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased by 164,000 tons to 6.234 million tons, an increase of 2.7%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.655 million tons, an increase of 1.1%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,000 tons to 14.679 million tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.6 to 8.9, an increase of 6.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 48,000 tons to 8.578 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 94,000 tons to 2.042 million tons, an increase of 4.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.207 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 19.8 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 19.0 to - 58.5, a decrease of 48.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0%. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Jinshi 62% Fe index have also slightly decreased [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 1.327 million tons to 25.26 million tons, an increase of 5.5%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.568 million tons, an increase of 7.3%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.315 million tons to 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average outbound shipment volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 71,000 tons to 318,600 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.108 million tons to 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.526 million tons to 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory decreased by 357,000 tons to 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58,300 tons to 90.072 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coke products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%, and the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 tons to 64.5 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 0.14%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 9,000 tons to 653,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 5,000 tons to 6.101 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The estimated supply - demand gap of coke decreased by 13,000 tons to - 57,000 tons, a decrease of 22.4% [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coking coal products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 943 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.4%, and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines remained unchanged at 860,500 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 18,000 tons to 444,500 tons, an increase of 0.4% [5]. Demand - The coke output (weekly) decreased, which affected the demand for coking coal [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9,000 tons to 116,700 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 51,000 tons to 9.613 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the overall market will maintain a weak oscillation. Although downstream demand is expected to improve marginally and inventory is likely to decline, production will also increase. As the apparent demand is unlikely to meet the market's optimistic expectations, there is a significant risk that the high expectations will not be fulfilled. It is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high in the unilateral strategy, and consider short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract in the arbitrage strategy [81][92]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - **Supply**: Due to good production profits, the overall steel output has changed little, remaining volatile in the past quarter. The output of the five major varieties has fluctuated between 8.5 million and 9 million tons per week, and the rebar output has remained around 2.2 million tons per week, while the hot - rolled coil output has recently declined. With the arrival of the consumption peak season and the end of the parade, the overall output is expected to rise [8][81]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coil has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has rebounded. Recently, the apparent demand for plates has declined from a high level. Seasonally, with the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to recover, but it is still at a five - year low, similar to the same period last year. It is expected that there will be no significant year - on - year increase in demand [8][81]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory has decreased briefly, while the social inventory has been rising. The inventory is being transferred from steel mills to downstream, indicating that steel mills are not optimistic about the future market. The total inventory of the five major varieties has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Currently, the inventory pressure is not high, and it is expected to continue to decline during the consumption peak season. However, inventory is not the main contradiction but a factor that triggers a negative feedback loop in prices [8][81]. - **Price and Market**: The previous price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution" trading, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. According to past rules, the demand expectations for the consumption peak season have been priced in the early - August prices. Although demand will improve in September, it still lags far behind the optimistic expectations at the previous price peak [8][81]. 2. Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - In the past month, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, with the decline of rebar being more significant and that of hot - rolled coil being smaller. The rebar basis has widened, mainly because the decline of futures prices is greater than that of spot prices. The hot - rolled coil basis has also widened slightly, indicating that hot - rolled coil has been relatively stronger than rebar recently. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of rebar has been falling and has entered a range where it is possible to go long on the spread between the 10 - and 01 - contracts. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of hot - rolled coil has remained fluctuating around zero. The spread of the 10 - contract between hot - rolled coil and rebar is high and may correct significantly in the future [12][15][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Steel - **Supply**: The decline in production in July was mainly due to the off - season of downstream consumption in summer, when steel mills actively reduced production. The crude steel output has gradually recovered to a high level in the same period. The weekly output of steel has increased slightly month - on - month. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both increased recently, and the total output of the five major varieties has also risen. After the end of the parade - related production restrictions, the production recovery is expected to accelerate. The output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high, with the output of independent electric arc furnace rebar at a multi - year peak, and the operating rate and capacity utilization rate both remaining high. The iron - water output is basically flat and remains at a relatively high level. After the end of the parade - related restrictions, the iron - water output is expected to continue to increase [41][49][66]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while the demand for medium - thick plates has declined from a high level. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both improved, but the total demand for rebar and the five major steel varieties is still at a five - year low. In July, steel exports rebounded month - on - month, and the export volume of steel billets increased significantly. The increase in exports is expected to be mainly driven by the high - speed growth of steel billet exports, and the trade war has not affected steel and steel billet exports [55][57][58]. - **Profit**: The decline in gross profit is mainly because the recent increase in the spot prices of coking coal and coke is significantly greater than that of rebar. After a brief profit recovery, the profits of short - process steel mills in various regions have declined [62][68]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products in steel mills has decreased month - on - month, with the rebar inventory in steel mills starting to decline and the inventory of other varieties continuing to increase, resulting in a slight decrease in the total steel mill inventory. The social inventory of major steel products has been increasing continuously, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil has been rising rapidly. The rebar inventory and the total inventory of the five major varieties have increased rapidly, while the overall inventory of upstream steel mills has declined, indicating that upstream steel mills are not optimistic about future prices and are transferring inventory to downstream [70][73][75]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Steel PMI index shows short - term pressure. The price peak usually precedes the PMI index peak. The PMI index reflects industry demand and is similar to the trend of social inventory. From August to September each year, the PMI index reaches its peak and then declines, indicating that the market is actually weak when downstream consumption improves. Currently, the index has been at 49.8 for two consecutive months and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. Historically, the probability of price decline is high in May, August, and September, and the probability of price increase is high in December, January, and July [82][84][88]. - **Investment Opportunities**: In the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high. In the arbitrage strategy, short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract can be considered. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently low and may rise in the future, presenting a good long - position opportunity. The ratio of rebar to coke has declined significantly and may continue to decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound in the rebar/coke ratio [38][92].

【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-09-01 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 01 钢材 产 业 无 向 上 驱 动 ， 近 月 待 交 割 合 约 向 弱 现 货 回 归 第 八 轮 提 涨 暂 时 搁 浅 ， 市 场 传 出 提 降 风 声 02 焦煤焦炭 薛夏泽 03 铁矿石 高 铁 水 下 的 节 前 补 库 周 期 为 价 格 提 供 支 撑 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 螺纹周产量：短流程 螺纹表需 热卷表需 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2 ...

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Report Information - Report Title: "Black Metal Weekly - Steel" [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained fluctuating at a high level, and the supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. Due to the expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade, raw material prices were firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no driving force for a sharp decline. The short - term trend may be volatile, and the valuation of the 01 - contract rebar may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Conclusion - After the price decline last week, the demand for finished products improved, production remained at a high - level fluctuation. The supply - demand situation did not deteriorate further. The expected contraction of raw material supply before the parade made raw material prices firm. After the contraction of steel profit per ton, there was no deep - decline driving force. The short - term may show a volatile trend, and the 01 - contract rebar valuation may fluctuate around the off - peak electricity cost [8]. Part 2: Supply - Demand Fundamentals Price - Last week, domestic steel spot prices declined. In East China, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan (- 40), Tangshan rebar was 3170 yuan (- 60); for hot - rolled coils, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (- 70), Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan (- 40) [9]. Production - As of August 21, the overall output of five major steel products increased by 6.43 tons. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27.9 tons per day, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 tons; the short - process daily consumption was 17.7 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons [8][10][79]. Inventory - As of August 21, the factory inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.3 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory increased by 26.37 tons. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The original sample rebar factory inventory was 174.53 tons (+ 2.27), the social inventory was 432.51 tons (+ 17.58), and the total inventory was 607.04 tons (+ 19.85). For hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [8][10][79]. Cost and Profit - As of August 22, the long - process cash - inclusive cost of East China rebar was 3147.5 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 102.5 yuan; the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 152.5 yuan. The flat - rate electricity cost of the electric furnace in East China was about 3344 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3216 yuan, with a flat - rate electricity profit of about 138 yuan and an off - peak electricity profit of - 26 yuan [8]. Macro Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023. From January to July 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 506 million tons, a decrease of 1.3% compared with the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude steel output was 595 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% compared with the same period in 2024. In July 2025, the newly - added medium - and long - term loans of enterprises (institutions) decreased by 39 billion yuan year - on - year, and the newly - added scale turned negative for the first time since September 2016. The PMI in July was 49.3%. From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; the manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; the real - estate development investment decreased by 17% [17][19][22][27]. Real - Estate Data - From January to July, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The newly - started floor area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed floor area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [30]. Other Parts - **Main Variety Basis**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Main Variety Inter - period**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Arbitrage Strategy Tracking**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Supply (Long - process)**: As of August 22, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.3% (+ 0.03), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons (+ 0.09) [44]. - **Supply (Short - process)**: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 35.7% (- 0.6); as of August 22, the iron - scrap price difference was 10.87 yuan (+ 48.2) [47]. - **Scrap Steel Arrival**: The total daily arrival of 255 steel mills was 53.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.47 tons, an increase of 9% [8]. - **Scrap Steel Daily Consumption**: The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 56.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons [8]. - **Scrap Steel Inventory in Steel Mills**: The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 450.9 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7.61 tons, an increase of 1.7% [8]. - **Rebar Production**: The weekly output of rebar was 214.65 tons (- 5.8), of which the long - process output was 184.87 tons (- 5.38) and the short - process output was 29.78 tons (- 0.42) [60]. - **Building Materials Transactions**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Cement Mill Operating Rate**: The average operating load of national cement mills was 39.87%, a decrease of 2.05 percentage points from the previous week, changing from an increase to a decrease [71]. - **Real - Estate 30 - City Sales High - frequency Data**: Not summarized due to lack of specific data analysis. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 9.65 tons; the apparent demand was 321.27 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.52 tons. The factory inventory decreased by 1.09 tons, the social inventory increased by 5.06 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.97 tons [79]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Regional Social Inventory**: Not summarized due to lack of specific content. - **Plate Demand (Cold - Hot Price Difference)**: As of August 22, the cold - hot price difference in Shanghai was 530 yuan/ton (+ 10) [86]. - **Export Situation**: As of August 21, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars (-), the export profit was - 2 US dollars (+ 2.5); the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 2.2284 million tons (- 841,500 tons) [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center may shift downwards before the parade. The prices of coking coal and coke may see their price centers gradually rise, and one can wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and ferroalloy futures prices are close to the cost of some production areas, with high - premium risks largely released [5][14][17][19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: From January to July, China's new and renovated rural roads totaled 51,000 kilometers, and the fixed - asset investment in rural roads reached 206.24 billion yuan. In July, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Beijing's rebar remained unchanged, while the spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin's hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan [3][4] - **Logical Analysis**: The black sector rebounded slightly last night. Currently, steel products are generally accumulating inventory, with the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. Hot - rolled steel demand remains strong, while construction steel demand is accelerating its decline. With the approaching parade, blast furnace production cuts may drive down raw material prices and lower the steel price center. Steel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Steel will maintain a range - bound trend. It is recommended to enter into positive basis spreads on dips and hold them. It is advisable to wait and see on options [8][9][10] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 20th, the online auction sentiment of coking coal in the Lvliang market was poor, with many auctions resulting in failures or price cuts. The coking coal forward market was stable. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions were provided [11][12] - **Logical Analysis**: The spot price of coking coal fluctuates, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The coking enterprises proposed a seventh - round price increase for coke, but the downstream steel mills have not given a clear response. In the medium term, coal supply will be disrupted, and the coking coal price center will gradually rise [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [15] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said there was a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. Six out of nine listed building materials companies achieved profitability in the first half of 2025. On the 20th, the national main port iron ore trading volume increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the construction steel trading volume of 237 mainstream traders increased by 12.4% month - on - month. The spot prices and standard product prices of different iron ore varieties were provided [16] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron ore price rose 1.04% last night, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving the price up are weakening. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term [17] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was provided in the text. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore imports were 2743500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 19.61%. The spot prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [19] - **Logical Analysis**: On the 20th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the production increased last week. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore decreased, and the production of manganese - silicon accelerated. The high - premium risks of both have been largely released [19][20] - **Trading Strategy**: Partially reduce short positions. Enter into positive spot - futures arbitrage when the basis is low. Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]

Market Performance - The futures market showed resilience with a rebound after an initial decline, and an increase in open interest was noted. The basis strengthened, with steel billet prices stable at 3090 yuan per ton and actual transaction prices for rebar in East China remaining at 3170 yuan per ton. The October futures contract was at a discount of 38 yuan to the spot price, while hot-rolled coil was at a discount of 28 yuan to the spot price [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production continues to recover, while coal mines maintain inventory reduction, with marginal conditions not weakening. Iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased, and steel production has seen a minor uptick, although seasonal demand for steel is declining. The expectation of reduced coking coal supply persists, leading to significant price volatility. Steel profits are currently declining, with the profit ranking from high to low being steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [2] Supply - From January to July, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in daily scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap steel consumption at 55800 tons, up by 0.6%. The total production of the five major steel products increased by 24000 tons to 8.716 million tons. By product type, rebar production decreased by 7000 tons to 2.205 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 7000 tons to 3.156 million tons. Since July, production of the five major products has exceeded apparent demand, leading to inventory pressure [3] Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year (-0.2%), while production decreased more than demand (-1.3%). The increase in iron element production (+3%) is primarily directed towards non-five major products and steel billets. Domestic demand has decreased year-on-year, while external demand has increased significantly, with substantial growth in both direct and indirect steel exports. Overall steel demand has increased year-on-year, with average daily production rising, while apparent demand remained flat and inventory decreased year-on-year. In terms of month-on-month performance, the seasonal decline was not significant. The impact of tariffs on demand was offset by the increase in direct exports. Rebar apparent demand decreased, dragging down overall apparent demand. The apparent demand for the five major products decreased by 15000 tons to 831000 tons, with rebar down by 201000 tons to 190000 tons, and hot-rolled coil up by 8000 tons to 315000 tons [4] Inventory - This week saw a significant increase in inventory, primarily driven by traders, while steel mills' inventory growth was limited. The inventory of the five major products increased by 40600 tons to 1.416 million tons, with rebar up by 30500 tons to 587200 tons, and hot-rolled coil up by 840 tons to 357500 tons. By product type, rebar showed a clear increase in inventory due to supply exceeding demand, while plate inventory remained stable with limited accumulation [5] Overall View - The market showed resilience with initial declines followed by rebounds. The spot market followed the fluctuations of futures, with a strengthening basis. Data indicates a continuous decline in rebar apparent demand and significant inventory accumulation. Hot-rolled coil supply and demand remained stable without significant deterioration. Current data shows a notable decline in rebar demand in August, leading to increased inventory levels. The differentiation in monthly price differences between rebar and hot-rolled coil indicates a weakening trend for rebar and a strengthening trend for hot-rolled coil. Technically, hot-rolled coil failed to break downwards, returning to a fluctuating pattern. Considering the current steel demand and coking coal supply situation, the steel market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuating pattern, with a recommendation for a wait-and-see approach [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel Weekly Supply and Demand Data Interpretation - Date: August 14, 2025 - Researcher: Multiple individuals with corresponding qualification numbers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the steel industry continue to show marginal weakening, with inventory accumulation accelerating for the five major steel products, and the characteristics of the off - season persisting. The overall market sentiment is cooling, and with ongoing policy fluctuations, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Demand - **Threaded steel**: The apparent demand is 189,940 tons (-20,850 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.07% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The apparent demand is 314,750 tons (+8,540 tons), a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The apparent demand is 831,020 tons (-14,720 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [2]. Supply - **Threaded steel**: The production is 220,450 tons (-730 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The production is 315,590 tons (+700 tons), a year - on - year increase of 0.22% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The production is 871,630 tons (+2,420 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.28% [2]. Inventory - **Threaded steel**: The inventory is 587,190 tons (+30,510 tons), a year - on - year increase of 5.48% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The inventory is 357,470 tons (+840 tons), a year - on - year increase of 0.24% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The inventory is 1,415,970 tons (+40,610 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.95% [2]. Market Analysis - The production of copper plants has a mix of resumptions and inspections, and the production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils has changed little. There has been a significant increase in threaded steel inventory due to a large amount of threaded steel cutting resources arriving at the port and the warehousing of previously typhoon - affected goods. The demand has declined, while the export orders for hot - rolled coils have improved, but domestic demand remains weak. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils has also accumulated, and the overall market continues to show off - season characteristics [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market has declined across the board. The five major steel products have seen an increase in inventory and a decrease in apparent demand. The rapid decline of coking coal has led to a decrease in speculative demand, and the short - term futures market still faces correction pressure. However, due to the unproven "anti - involution" expectation and the "steady growth" expectation, along with the impact of coal mine over - production inspections, the steel demand in the off - season is acceptable, and the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On August 1st, black commodity futures all turned down. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore were 3,203 yuan/ton, 3,401 yuan/ton, and 783 yuan/ton respectively. The coking coal and coke futures continued to decline significantly, with the decline of coking coal main contract exceeding 7%, and the coking coal main contract switched to 2601 [1] Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting did not release signals of incremental fiscal policies, emphasizing the use of previous policy packages and without more support for the real estate market. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and downplayed the guidance of a September rate cut, leading to adjustments in risk - asset prices. In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [1] - The supply - demand performance of steel is poor. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 13.5189 million tons, ending a four - week decline. The terminal demand in the off - season is weak, mainly due to the decline in real estate investment and construction. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 65.37%, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46%, and the average daily pig iron output decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons. The electric arc furnace steel mills increased production and resumed production, with the operating rate and capacity utilization reaching an eight - week high [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a short - term shock strategy and pay attention to the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coils: Adopt a short - term high - level consolidation strategy and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overall, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased, the apparent demand has decreased, and with the rapid decline of coking coal, the short - term futures market faces correction pressure. But due to certain expectations and the actual situation, the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1]