Group 1 - The market remains unfavorable for technology stocks, with recent developments indicating a conservative funding environment [1] - In September, the new social financing amount was 3.53 trillion yuan, which was in line with expectations but did not show significant growth, indicating weak borrowing willingness from both enterprises and individuals [1] - A notable decline in non-bank deposits occurred in September, decreasing by 1.06 trillion yuan, raising concerns among investors about potential capital withdrawal after market gains [2] Group 2 - The decline in non-bank deposits, previously seen as a "bull market signal" when it surged by 4.7 trillion yuan in July, suggests a shift in market sentiment towards caution [2] - The decrease in non-bank deposits may not solely be attributed to securities accounts but could also stem from redemptions in bank wealth management, money market funds, or bond funds [2] - The contraction of this indicator, once viewed as a driving force for the bull market, is likely to exert pressure on the technology sector [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking three financial indicators: M1 year-on-year growth, non-bank deposits, and corporate medium to long-term loans, as they reflect industrial inventory and PPI improvements, market activity, and production investment trends respectively [4][5][6] - In September, M1 year-on-year growth increased by 1.2%, while non-bank deposits decreased by 1.97 trillion, and corporate medium to long-term loans saw a slight decrease of 500 million [4][5] - The decline in non-bank deposits in September is attributed to seasonal factors, particularly the pressure on banks to meet deposit assessments at the end of the quarter, leading to a typical seasonal drop in non-bank deposits [4][5][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the significant drop in non-bank deposits in September, suggesting it does not necessarily indicate a weakening of the equity market's activity, and further observation of October's data is required [8][9] - The increase in M1 year-on-year is likely driven by a rise in household demand rather than improvements in corporate cash flow, as evidenced by the relatively modest increase in corporate deposits [10][23] - The article highlights that while the new M1 metric is statistically more accurate, historical discrepancies suggest that it may not directly correlate with corporate expectations, necessitating further analysis of traditional M1 metrics [10][24] Group 3 - In September, the total social financing increased by 3.53 trillion, a decrease of 2.3 trillion year-on-year, with a stock growth rate of 8.7% [31][32] - The article notes that corporate medium to long-term loans continued to show a decrease, with a total loan increase of 1.29 trillion, which is 300 billion less than the previous year [27][31] - M2 growth rate fell to 8.4% in September, down 0.4% from the previous month, while new M1 grew by 7.2%, reflecting a mixed trend in liquidity [32][33]

Credit and Financing Analysis - In September, the growth rate of RMB loans decreased from 6.8% to 6.6%, with new loans totaling 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.66 billion yuan[7] - Short-term loans increased by 122.1 billion yuan year-on-year, while medium and long-term loans decreased by 30 billion yuan[10] - Corporate bill financing saw a net repayment of 402.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 471.2 billion yuan[10] - The total social financing (社融) in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, with a stock growth rate of 8.7%[6] Monetary Supply Insights - M1 growth in September was 7.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points, but showed a significant decline from 2.3% in March to -3.3% in September due to manual interest compensation[27] - M2 growth was 8.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value[6] - The decline in non-bank deposits was 1.06 trillion yuan in September, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97 trillion yuan, indicating significant volatility[23] Policy and Economic Implications - Policy financial tools began to be deployed at the end of September, which may support social financing in the fourth quarter[18] - Fiscal deposits decreased by 840 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year reduction of 604.2 billion yuan, suggesting accelerated fiscal spending to stabilize economic growth[26] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, uncertainties in investment behavior, and unexpected changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations[31]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released financial data for the first three quarters, revealing a significant increase in RMB deposits, with a total increase of 22.71 trillion yuan [1] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is attributed to residents reallocating their savings based on changes in asset return rates, rather than a straightforward movement into the stock market [1][2] - Non-bank financial institutions saw a notable increase in deposits, primarily due to the rise in time deposits and increased holdings of interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters, deposits from non-bank financial institutions increased by 4.81 trillion yuan, but there was a significant drop in September compared to previous months [1] - By the end of September, household deposits grew by 12.73 trillion yuan, a substantial increase from 9.77 trillion yuan at the end of August [1] - The earlier assumption that the increase in non-bank deposits indicated a shift of household funds into the stock market was deemed overly simplistic, as September data showed a rebound in household deposits [2] Group 2: Financial Institution Insights - Non-bank deposits are not solely related to margin deposits but include various financial institutions holding interbank certificates of deposit [2] - Banks are expanding their liabilities through non-bank deposits, particularly during periods of high government bond issuance, which has been a trend in July and August [3] - Some banks, especially local banks, have significantly increased their interbank deposits to meet funding needs during this period [3] Group 3: Wealth Management Products - The stock of bank wealth management products saw a seasonal decline at the end of September, decreasing by 1284.71 billion yuan to 30.82 trillion yuan [4] - Sales of equity-linked products have increased but have not experienced explosive growth, indicating a stable market environment [5] - The proportion of index-linked products in the structure of purchased equity-linked funds is relatively high, while direct investments in specific stock market sectors are less popular [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in credit and social financing in the first three quarters, indicating strong financial support for the real economy, with a notable shift towards direct financing channels [1][2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In the first three quarters, new RMB loans increased by approximately 14.75 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of about 1.29 trillion yuan in September [4]. - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. - Direct financing has become a significant contributor to social financing, with government bonds net financing reaching about 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply and Loan Structure - By the end of September, M2 grew by 8.4% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in corporate and consumer demand [3]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and a rebound in personal consumption [3]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell to 48.3%, with over half of the new social financing coming from diverse channels such as government and corporate bonds [2]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Key industries like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained strong growth, driving corporate financing demand [5]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities have led to a recovery in personal loan demand, particularly in the real estate sector [6][7]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans remained low at around 3.1%, which is significantly lower than the previous year [7]. Group 4: Non-Bank Deposits and Market Dynamics - In the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institution deposits growing faster than household deposits [8]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a reallocation of assets by residents in response to changing return rates, rather than a direct correlation with stock market fluctuations [8].

Core Insights - The public fund market in China reached a record high of 36 trillion yuan in August 2025, marking a growth of 1.18 trillion yuan from July, with a growth rate of 3.36% [1][2] Fund Categories Summary - **Equity Funds**: The scale reached 5.55 trillion yuan in August, increasing by 628.07 billion yuan from June, with a growth rate of 12.76%. The number of shares increased by 79.67 billion from July, a growth of 2.32% [2][3] - **Mixed Funds**: The scale was 4.16 trillion yuan in August, with an increase of 332.70 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 8.69%. However, the number of shares decreased by 45.01 billion from July, a decline of 1.50% [2][3] - **Money Market Funds**: The scale reached 14.81 trillion yuan, with an increase of 196.35 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.34%. The number of shares increased by 190.42 billion from July, a growth of 1.30% [2][3] - **Bond Funds**: The scale was 7.21 trillion yuan, with a decrease of 28.51 billion yuan, representing a decline of 0.39%. The number of shares decreased by 95.15 billion from July, a decline of 1.62% [2][3] - **Cross-Border Funds (QDII)**: The scale reached 797.32 billion yuan, increasing by 67.27 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.21%. The number of shares increased by 51.65 billion from July, a growth of 8.64% [2][3] Market Trends - The mixed fund category experienced significant net redemptions, totaling 450 billion yuan in August and 370 billion yuan in July, indicating a total net redemption of 820 billion yuan over two months [3][4] - The bond market saw a notable shift, with net redemptions of bond funds reaching 951 billion yuan in August, a decrease from 1.944 trillion yuan in July, as funds moved towards equity markets [5] - Non-bank deposits in China showed significant growth, with an increase of 5.87 trillion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, accounting for 28.63% of the total increase in RMB deposits during the same period [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The surge in non - bank deposits is not simply due to "deposits entering the market." It is influenced by government fiscal funds, enterprise "manual interest compensation" policy changes, and the transfer of residents' excess net savings [17][18]. - The current equity market rally may have some sustainability. If the A - share market rises steadily, about 3.3 trillion yuan of residents' "excess net savings" may continue to transfer, with 0.49 - 0.82 trillion yuan potentially entering the equity market [5][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Non - bank Deposits Surge is Not Simply "Deposits Entering the Market" - In August 2025, the newly - added household deposits were only 110 billion yuan, the lowest in the same period in the past decade. In contrast, the newly - added non - bank financial institution deposits were 1180 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the seasonal level for two consecutive months [19]. - The view of "deposits entering the market" has methodological flaws, as the "household deposits/A - share total market value" ratio is affected by stock price changes and ignores data seasonality [19][21]. - The seasonal fluctuations of household deposits are mainly due to seasonal consumption demand and bank deposit assessment at the end of the half - year. The seasonal fluctuations of non - bank deposits are related to bank MPA assessments and the scale increase of bank wealth management products [21][25]. 3.2 Support Factor from the Government: Lubrication Effect of Active Fiscal Fund Allocation - As of August 2025, the balance of fiscal deposits was 7.8 trillion yuan. Fiscal deposits are mainly affected by broad fiscal revenues and expenditures and government bond net financing [30]. - In 2025, fiscal front - loading provided sufficient funds for government deposits. However, fiscal revenue showed a situation of "high financing, low precipitation," which may be related to the improvement of fiscal expenditure efficiency and the conversion of fiscal funds into entity - sector deposits [31][38]. 3.3 Support Factor from Enterprises: Persistent Scar Effect of Canceling the "Manual Interest Compensation" Policy 3.3.1 Calculation of the Proportion of "Ultra - compliant" Deposits Based on the Annual Reports of Listed Banks - Since the end of 2022, the central bank and regulatory authorities have introduced policies to guide large banks to increase credit investment in specific areas, resulting in more enterprise deposits being concentrated in large - bank systems [45]. - Banks have taken multiple measures to reduce deposit costs, but the effect is not obvious. The main reasons are the regular - ization of household deposits and the high cost of enterprise deposits affected by "manual interest compensation" [47][50]. - After the "manual interest compensation" was stopped in April 2024, about 40% of the current deposits of large state - owned and joint - stock banks were estimated to be "ultra - compliant" deposits. However, not all of these deposits will flow out immediately [56][61]. 3.3.2 Calculation of the Proportion of "Ultra - compliant" Deposits Based on the Trend of Enterprise Current Deposits in the Credit Caliber - After the cancellation of "manual interest compensation," the year - on - year decline of enterprise current deposits significantly expanded. From April to August 2024, the cumulative year - on - year over - reduction scale was 4502.42 billion yuan, accounting for about 18.3% of the total balance at the end of March 2024 [65][69]. 3.3.3 Two Factors for the Improvement of Enterprises' Short - term Capital Position - The issuance of government bonds and the allocation of fiscal funds have accelerated, injecting liquidity into the enterprise sector. The increase in settlement demand has led to an increase in RMB funds, which has also promoted the recovery of enterprise current deposits [70][71]. 3.4 Support Factor from Residents: Maturity Transfer of Excess Net Savings 3.4.1 Historical Review of Two Rounds of Residents' "Deposit Outflows" - From 2009 - 2011, residents' savings first flowed into the stock and real - estate markets and then into wealth management and trust products. This was due to the economic stimulus policies after the financial crisis and the subsequent tightening of monetary policy to control inflation [78][82]. - From 2014 - 2016, the bull markets in stocks and bonds, the rise of Internet finance, and the relaxation of real - estate policies led to the diversion of residents' deposits [89][102]. 3.4.2 Calculation of the Precipitated "Savings" with Migration Potential in the Resident Sector - Since 2020, residents' savings have significantly deviated from the linear trend, mainly in the form of regular deposits. As of August 2025, the excess regular savings were about 47.75 trillion yuan, while the excess current savings were only 0.33 trillion yuan [111][115]. - The concept of "excess net savings" is introduced to measure the real "excess" savings accumulation by considering both the asset and liability sides of the resident sector [118]. 3.5 The Bull Market Continues, and 3.3 Trillion Yuan of Deposits May Continue to Transfer This Year, with 0.49 - 0.82 Trillion Yuan Potentially Entering the Market - From June to August 2025, the "deposit transfer" of residents may be in the initial stage, mainly due to the transfer of matured "excess net savings" rather than a fundamental change in residents' risk preference [5][18]. - The equity market rally may have some sustainability. Leveraged funds, medium - and long - term funds entering the market, and foreign capital may support the market. If the A - share market rises steadily, about 3.3 trillion yuan of funds may continue to transfer, with 15% - 25% (about 0.49 - 0.82 trillion yuan) potentially entering the equity market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in non-bank deposits by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 550 billion yuan, has sparked significant market interest, with differing opinions among analysts regarding the reasons behind this growth [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Non-Bank Deposit Increase - One perspective suggests that the increase in non-bank deposits is primarily due to the growth in stock account margins, as residents shift their savings into brokerage margin accounts and equity mutual funds [3]. - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the increase in non-bank deposits correlates with a decrease in resident deposits, which grew by only 110 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan. This shift is attributed to the active capital market environment [3]. - Another viewpoint from Everbright Securities indicates that the "wealth effect" from a strong equity market has led to a transfer of resident deposits into non-bank deposits, with trading volumes in the stock market nearing peak levels [4]. Group 2: Alternative Explanations - Some analysts, like those from Xinda Securities, argue that the increase in non-bank deposits may also stem from a rising willingness to hold cash in non-bank products, especially given the weak bond market conditions in August [5]. - Huaxi Securities highlights that while the stock market's performance has driven some deposits into brokerage accounts, the overall speed of capital inflow into the market may not meet expectations, as evidenced by the number of new stock accounts opened in August [5]. - Additionally, data from the top 14 wealth management companies shows a net increase in their balances, suggesting that a portion of the funds may have flowed into non-bank deposits from wealth management products [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - Historical analysis by Galaxy Securities indicates that signs of a "deposit migration" are emerging, with a continuous decline in resident deposit growth and a potential shift towards equity assets [7]. - The correlation between non-bank deposit growth and the performance of the CSI 300 index has been noted, suggesting that the recent increase in non-bank deposits may reflect a broader trend in the equity market [8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly in relation to interest rates and economic growth forecasts [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Data Predictions**: August economic data is expected to weaken due to factors like anti-involution policies, but a rebound may occur in September due to seasonal end-of-quarter effects. If the current pace of industrial value-added growth is maintained, it could exceed 6% for the year, with GDP growth projected above 5% [1][4][5]. 2. **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market is currently underperforming, influenced by seasonal institutional behaviors and regulatory pressures. However, there may be opportunities in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. **Impact of New Lending Regulations**: New regulations on centralized lending are expected to have limited short-term negative effects but aim to improve market mechanisms in the long term, benefiting short-selling activities [7]. 4. **Conditions for Resuming Government Bond Trading**: The resumption of government bond trading is contingent on factors such as Sino-US relations, economic fundamentals, fiscal expansion, and financial risks. There is a high necessity for this to occur within the year [8][9]. 5. **Market Impact of Resuming Bond Trading**: Resuming government bond trading is seen as a positive development for the market, increasing demand for bonds, providing medium to long-term liquidity, and reducing costs for financial institutions, which helps stabilize market expectations [10]. 6. **Social Financing Data**: Recent social financing data shows a decline in growth for August, raising concerns about whether this trend will continue and if local government debt funds will be disbursed early in the fourth quarter [11]. 7. **Trends in Deposits**: There is a notable decrease in resident deposits below seasonal norms, while non-bank deposits have surged, primarily due to the expansion of wealth management products leading to financial disintermediation. This trend should not be simplistically interpreted as funds moving into the stock market [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy Recommendation**: In the current high-interest rate environment, a barbell strategy is recommended for investment portfolios, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds for the short term and long-term government bonds for flexibility [2][14]. Specific recommendations include 25T6 for three-year government bonds and 250,215 for ten-year bonds from the China Development Bank [2][14].

Core Viewpoint - The most significant change in the August financial data is the acceleration of "deposit migration," with household deposits declining for two consecutive months beyond seasonal trends, while non-bank deposits have seen a substantial increase [2][8][53]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, household deposits decreased by 6000 million year-on-year, with a net increase of only 1100 million, marking two consecutive months of negative growth compared to seasonal averages, a first for 2025 [2][5][8]. - Non-bank deposits reached a record high for the same period, with an increase of 11800 million, indicating a shift in asset structure among residents [2][5][8]. - The relationship between household and non-bank deposits reflects a "seesaw" effect closely tied to capital market performance, suggesting early signs of changes in residents' asset allocation [2][8][53]. Group 2: Loan Trends - Household loans remain weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 1597 million, consistent with low consumer confidence levels [2][14][53]. - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy only started in September, meaning August data does not reflect its impact [2][14][53]. - The employment outlook is uncertain, as indicated by the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for hiring expectations, which fell to 44.07 in August, the lowest since March 2020 [2][14][53]. Group 3: Corporate Loan Dynamics - In August, the growth rate of medium and long-term corporate loans showed signs of stabilization, while short-term loans and bill financing decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 9.7% [3][20][54]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rebounded to -2.9% year-on-year, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for business expectations rose from 52.6 to 53.7, indicating a potential shift in corporate investment attitudes from cautious to watchful [3][20][54]. Group 4: Social Financing and Policy Outlook - The growth rate of social financing stock declined by 0.2 percentage points to 8.8%, primarily due to the end of front-loaded fiscal financing [3][26][54]. - From January to July 2025, social financing stock growth accelerated from 8.0% to 9.0%, largely driven by front-loaded government bond financing, which totaled an additional 4.8 trillion [3][26][54]. - Future fiscal and monetary policy coordination may provide marginal support for the stability of social financing, with new subsidy policies and innovative financial tools expected to enhance credit and social capital mobilization [3][29][54]. Group 5: Overall Financial Data - In August, new credit totaled 5900 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3100 million, primarily from the corporate sector [4][36][56]. - The total social financing in August was 25700 million, down 4623 million year-on-year, mainly due to government bonds [4][36][56]. - M2 growth remained steady at 8.8%, while the new M1 increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6% [5][43][57].