01 高楠很强啊， 最近行情震荡回调，但高楠管的多只基金，在本周三依旧创了历史新高。 因为业绩好，基金规模也爆发式增长。 永赢稳健增强，这是一只"固收+"基金，今年规模从10亿元增至349亿元。前几天刚发了公告，暂停机构 通过第三方渠道的申购，4季度规模应该又增加了不少。 永赢睿信，这是高楠的代表基金，今年涨了86.93%，规模从13亿元增至144亿元。 我们去年系统写过高楠。 投资方法是自下而上，左侧操作，布局基本面改善+业绩爆发的机会，多次抓住拐点行情，持仓呈现出 行业轮动的特征。 另外，高楠选股能力强，还擅长交易，带动基金业绩增长的同时，也让基金呈现出"换手率高"的特征。 去永赢基金后，应该说高楠还是在用这套投资方法管基金。 换手率上， "永赢睿信"去年的换手率是780%，今年上半年是856%，和之前在国泰基金、恒越基金时相比，并没有 特别明显的下降。 行业配置上， 2024年上半年，重仓行业以电子（半导体）、轻工制造（新消费）、电力设备、有色金属、军工为主。 今年上半年，医药（创新药）成了第一大重仓行业，轻工制造（新消费）的仓位有所降低，通信（光模 块）后来居上，成了第三大重仓行业，对电子行业的持仓， ...

华宝证券指出，港股市场迎来企稳修复，受全球市场情绪改善影响，恒生科技指数反弹幅度较大，但波 动也明显更高，整体来看市场或正处于情绪回暖、风格切换阶段。海外流动性风险缓和，叠加美联储降 息预期升温，市场风险偏好回升，科技股"泡沫"担忧逐渐消化，权益市场重返震荡上行通道。展望后 市，随着春季行情临近，市场情绪有望进一步回升，港股科技板块或受益于流动性改善及风险偏好提 升。 港股通科技指数相比恒生科技指数超配新能源车、创新药、半导体等行业，从业绩表现来看，从2014年 底基日开始至2025年10月底，港股通科技指数累计收益256.46%，相对恒生科技指数（96.94%）超额近 160%，长期跑赢恒生科技指数、沪港深互联网指数、恒生互联网科技业指数、恒生医疗保健指数等同 类指数。 港股科技ETF（513020）跟踪的是港股通科技指数（931573），覆盖"互联网+半导体+创新药+新能源 车"等港股核心资产，集中体现多元化科技产业特征与港股市场核心科技企业的整体表现。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising expectations for the year-end market rally, with significant divergence among public funds regarding their strategies for year-end positioning [1][2] - As of December 5, 22 actively managed equity funds have achieved returns exceeding 100% this year, with the highest return being 202.13% from Yongying Technology Smart A [3][4] - The performance ranking shows a significant gap between the top fund and others, indicating a competitive environment among fund managers to improve their rankings before year-end [4][6] Group 2 - There is a notable split in strategies among funds, with some aiming to preserve gains while others seek to capitalize on the year-end rally, reflecting differing performance levels throughout the year [5][6] - The market environment is described as complex, influenced by factors such as year-end liquidity, style rotation, and external disturbances, which may affect the potential for a year-end rally [6][7] - Historical data indicates that the timing of the year-end rally can vary, with the current year being particularly complicated due to external factors and market sentiment [7][8] Group 3 - Key sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor equipment, and high-end manufacturing are highlighted as areas of focus for future investment, while traditional sectors like real estate and consumer goods are recovering more slowly [8] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring structural shifts in the market, with potential opportunities arising from changes in investment focus and market dynamics [8]

跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 李畅 策略分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com | 一、策略观点：跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 4 | | --- | | 二、本周市场变化 9 | | 风险因素 12 | [Table_Summary] 核心结论：本周市场继续震荡，成交缩量。海外流动性扰动持续对风险 偏好产生影响，日本央行释放出可能再次加息的信号，引发市场担忧套 息交易逆转风险上升。美元指数 11 月以来在 100 附近震荡，市场对美 联储 12 月降息预期的博弈陷入拉锯战。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要 原因或在于，当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于中长期资金 和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in investment style, with the banking sector receiving increased capital inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3] - In the equity market, technology sector ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 755 billion yuan, with semiconductor, battery, and robotics themes being particularly favored [3] - The banking ETF recorded a net inflow of 58 billion yuan in October, marking a new monthly high for 2025, following a net inflow of 32 billion yuan in September [3] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing growth in bond ETFs, particularly in sci-tech bonds, corporate bonds, and government bonds, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The report notes a substantial increase in the buying of long-term government bonds by major banks, while insurance companies are also increasing their allocation to long-term bonds [4] - In the commodity market, there has been a shift in domestic investor preferences from gold stock ETFs to gold ETFs, with a notable net inflow of 337.82 billion yuan in October [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Petrochemical ETF (159731), which has experienced a decline of approximately 1.1%, with leading stocks such as Guangwei Composites, Lanxiao Technology, and Sanmei Co. showing gains, while Chuanfa Longmang and Salt Lake Co. led the declines [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has seen net inflows of 26.74 million yuan over the past 10 trading days, with 8 out of those days recording positive inflows [1] - Huachuang Securities suggests that as the third-quarter reports transition to annual reports, the market faces a five-month performance gap, prompting investors to consider positioning for next year and style shifts, making the chemical sector a viable investment choice [1] Group 2 - The overall weighted operating rate of the chemical industry is at historical highs, while price differentials remain at the bottom, indicating a need for inventory reduction before a reversal can be confirmed [1] - Recommendations for investment include: (1) early-stage reversal stocks, (2) scarce resource companies likely to see revaluation, particularly in phosphate, potassium salt, and fluorochemical leaders, (3) companies with significant growth potential, and (4) sectors with favorable supply-demand structures such as pesticides, spandex, filament, and organic silicon [1] - The Petrochemical ETF and its linked funds closely track the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.8% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.2%, positioning them to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [1]

险资扫货 截至三季度末,保险公司重仓的银行股市值已经超过 3350亿,较年初增加近700亿。监管明确,从2025年起 每年新增保费的30%用于投资A股,在新增保费入市、险 区格切换 &A 240019 联接C 00669 风格切换 进入四季度,市场波动加剧,银行凭借低估值、高股。 的防御属性在年末避险情绪中重获认可。中证银行指数 10月以来累计上涨8.95%,显著跑赢大盘,较创业板指 超额15个百分点。 分红抢筹 目前已有24家上市银行明确实施中期分红,拟合计派现 金额达2638亿元,再创历史新高!除已派现落地的,还 有超2400亿元"红包雨"待发,有望吸引更多资金关注 "抢筹"。 责任编辑：杨赐 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance, driven by style rotation and significant mid-term dividend distributions, with major state-owned banks leading the gains [3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 20, major banks experienced a rally, with China Bank rising over 5% and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China increasing by over 2%, both reaching historical highs [1]. - The China Banking Index has accumulated an 8.95% increase since the beginning of October, outperforming the broader market and exceeding the ChiNext Index by 15 percentage points [4]. Group 2: Dividend Distributions - A total of 24 listed banks have announced mid-term dividends, with a combined payout of nearly 263.8 billion yuan, marking a historical high [5]. - The six major state-owned banks are set to distribute a total of approximately 204.66 billion yuan in dividends, with most record dates concentrated in December [5]. Group 3: Investment Appeal - The banking sector is viewed as a defensive investment due to its low valuation and high dividend yield, making it attractive to investors seeking stability [5]. - As of the end of September, the China Banking Index had a price-to-book ratio of 0.67, placing it in the lower 35.69% percentile over the past decade, while the dividend yield reached 4.29%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield of 1.88% [5]. Group 4: ETF Activity - The largest banking ETF (512800) saw its price rise by 1.9%, reaching a new high for the month, with a total trading volume of 1.491 billion yuan, indicating increased market interest [2]. - The banking ETF has experienced a significant increase in scale, reaching 20.615 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant rise in bank stocks, with notable increases in major banks such as China Bank and Construction Bank, indicating a positive sentiment towards the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - China Bank rose over 5%, Construction Bank over 4%, and Postal Savings Bank over 3%, with several other banks also showing gains of over 2% [1]. - Bank ETFs, including various Southern and E-Fund ETFs, have also experienced upward movement, reflecting the overall positive trend in the banking sector [3]. Group 2: ETF Insights - Bank ETFs track the China Securities Bank Index, with nearly 30% of their holdings in major state-owned banks like Industrial and Agricultural Bank, while about 70% focuses on high-growth banks [3]. - The Bank AH Preferred ETF tracks the Bank AH Index, utilizing a monthly security category conversion strategy based on AH prices [4]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - As of Q3 2025, insurance capital has increased its holdings in the banking sector, with a holding ratio of 27.95% and a market value accounting for 3.99% of circulating A-shares [5]. - Insurance capital has increased its positions in 23 banks, with 10 banks seeing increased holdings, indicating a growing interest in the banking sector [6]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing a style shift, influenced by factors such as the approaching end-of-year assessments for institutions and the central bank's implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - The decline in the proportion of bank holdings among public funds suggests a potential opportunity for reallocation towards undervalued financial stocks [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The insurance sector is expected to continue increasing its investment in banks, driven by stable dividends and low valuations, with a focus on high ROE small and medium-sized banks [6]. - The ongoing improvement in net profits for banks and the potential for valuation reconstruction through increased capital inflows are seen as positive indicators for the banking sector's future [6].

Group 1 - Energy metals lead the market, with traditional dividend assets like oil, chemicals, and banks showing strength, particularly the "three oil giants" which have boosted the Hong Kong stock market's dividend ETF, Guangfa (520900), by 1.39% [1] - Since the fourth quarter, technology stocks have entered a valuation adjustment phase, while market funds have shifted towards dividend assets, indicating a style switch [3] - The "technology" and "dividend" sectors have alternated in performance, highlighting the importance for investors to understand and adapt to these style changes rather than betting on a single style [4] Group 2 - A stable asset allocation strategy is crucial for investment safety, with successful investors often choosing robust leaders as a ballast in their portfolios [5] - In China, key sectors such as energy, utilities, communications, and finance have benefited significantly from the country's rapid economic growth since 2000, with state-owned enterprises playing a vital role [6] - China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has seen its revenue grow from 360 billion yuan in 2000 to over 3 trillion yuan in 2024, a 7.5-fold increase, while maintaining stable net profits [6] Group 3 - Sinopec has distributed over 650 billion yuan in cash dividends since its listing in 2001, with a dividend yield consistently above 5% for the past decade [7] - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has also performed well, distributing 320 billion yuan in dividends from 2020 to 2024 while maintaining over 50% of domestic crude oil supply [7] - China Shenhua Energy, a leading coal enterprise, has seen its revenue grow nearly tenfold since its listing in 2007, with cumulative dividends exceeding 700 billion yuan and a dividend yield reaching 6.8% in 2024 [8] Group 4 - The trend of style switching in the A-share market is becoming more evident, with both "technology" and "dividend" sectors coexisting as viable investment options [9] - The performance of high-dividend indices has shown resilience during market downturns, with the Smart High Dividend Index demonstrating significant cumulative gains since 2017 [12] - The National Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index has also shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 119% since its inception [19] Group 5 - The high dividend ETF (159207) has consistently achieved positive returns from 2020 to 2024, with a cumulative increase of 111.54% over the past five years [15][17] - Hong Kong stocks often exhibit higher dividend yields compared to their A-share counterparts, making them attractive for investors seeking high-yield assets [17] - The top sectors in the National Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index include oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and transportation, with significant weight in leading state-owned enterprises [18] Group 6 - The cyclical nature of technology and high-dividend assets is a consistent pattern, with both sectors expected to grow in the context of China's stable economic growth and technological advancements [21] - Finding a balance in investment strategies across different market environments is essential for achieving long-term stable returns [21]