点击蓝字，关注我们 美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确定性因素 正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。 纽约时间7月1日，美国股市在2025年上半年的走势犹如坐上过山车，在创下历史新高后，多重不确 定性因素正为下半年行情蒙上阴影。尽管标普500指数年内仍维持5%以上的涨幅，但4月因特朗普政 府"关税风暴"引发的市场恐慌至今令人心有余悸。当前投资者正屏息关注六大关键变量，这些因素 或将决定美股能否守住当前高位。 关税会产生影响吗?还是只会起到震慑作用? 首当其冲的仍是关税政策走向。虽然市场对最极端情景的担忧有所缓解，但7月9日这个关键时间节 点正步步逼近，美国与多国的贸易谈判结果可能引发新一轮市场波动。高盛最新测算显示，即便部 分严苛关税措施被取消，已落地的政策仍推动美国实际关税税率从年初3%攀升至13%，这或将持续 推高通胀压力并侵蚀企业利润。即将于本月下旬披露的二季度财报将成为重要试金石，数据显示， 标普500成分股盈利预计增长5.9%，投资者将密切关注企业如何消化关税成本。 美联储何时降息? 美联储政策路径同样牵动市场神经。鲍威尔近期明确将关税引发的通胀风险列为延缓降息的重要考 ...

重阳说 提示：本公众号所发布的内容仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议和销售要约。如您对重阳产品感兴趣，欢迎 扫码 咨询。 市场"一半是海水，一半是火焰"，下半年分化延续or风格切换？ （一） 为什么上半年股市"一半是海水，一半是火焰" 问： 2025 年上半年 A 股港股市场演绎了典型的结构性行情，可以说 " 一半是海水一半是火焰 " ，催动这轮结构性行情的主要驱动力是什么？ 如果排除特朗普突发关税冲击引发的短促震荡，上半年市场看宽基指数可谓波澜不惊，但是结构却是高度分化，泛科技、创新药、新消费等优质个股不断创出新 高，而与传统经济相关的板块则萎靡不振。市场为何会走出这种极致分化行情？其深层原因是什么？展望下半年，是分化延续还是风格切换？本期重阳S4圆桌围 绕这些问题展开探讨。 "重阳S4"是重阳多位基金经理共同管理同一只基金这一模式的简称。具体来讲，就是在公司投资决策委员会统一的策略指引下，同一只基金通过分仓的方式由多 位基金经理共同参与管理，每位基金经理在自己的分仓范围内进行相对独立操作。实践证明，多基金经理共管模式能够帮助打造投资管理超级能力圈，实现投资 业绩可持续、投研能力可迭代、投资风格可复制、管理规模可 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is primarily driven by key sectors such as banks, liquor, and insurance, which together account for over 40% of the Shanghai Composite Index's weight [1][3] - Despite 4,000 stocks declining, the overall market index rose, indicating that the performance of major sectors can stabilize the index [1] - The index is close to reaching a new high, with only 10 points away, and a recovery in any of the key sectors could lead to this milestone [3] Group 2 - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with no significant logic for a pullback as long as key sectors like liquor do not accelerate in their rise [3][5] - The upcoming earnings disclosures for mid-cap stocks may lead to a shift in market dynamics, with many investors potentially missing out on opportunities [5] - Understanding the banking sector's logic is crucial, as misconceptions about its performance can lead to missed investment opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a style shift, with funds moving from defensive assets to offensive ones, leading to a potential rebound in growth and technology stocks after a decline in dividend stocks [1] - The recent pullback in banks and other heavyweight stocks is seen as a rational correction, paving the way for a quick rebound once balance is restored [1] - Market sentiment is improving, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the 3500-point level, with a potential acceleration in the coming weeks [6] Group 2 - Investors who remain optimistic about the market are more likely to recover losses, as historical trends show that patience can lead to significant rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming week is critical for A-share market trends, with expectations of a prolonged upward movement rather than a rapid spike [6] - Those who doubt the market's potential for growth risk missing out on opportunities, as the market rewards patience and logical thinking rather than mere cleverness [8]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 今年来不断 被举牌、 创新高的银行， 涨势突然噶然而止 。 6月27日， A股所有银行股罕见全线收跌，六大国有大 行 中除建设银行下跌 2.09%外，其他几家基本均跌超 3%，还有几家城商行甚至跌超4%。 拉长时间看，从 2023年初开始，银行股就开启 一轮极为强势的持续 大涨行情，成为全市场最为被关注的行业 。 至今，农业银行、中国银行、交通银行、工商银行等几家国有大行，以及渝农商行、上海银行、沪农商行等区域银 行的 股价已经 实现 翻倍。 在期间，银行股也经历了很多轮被资金抱团炒高后又在资金退潮后回落，但无一例外，每一轮的阶段低点，都成为 了下一轮行情的起点。 这一次在显著拉升过后突然掉头大跌， 并 不能完全确定是否为本轮行情的阶段终点，但至少释放出了一个重磅的 信号 —— 风格切换 来了 。 截至 A股 收市，受权重股大跌拖累影响，沪指跌了 0.7%，但深成指和创业板都出现了小幅上涨。 共有 3379 只 个股上涨， 比例超过 6成，其中有6 0只涨停 ， 成交额 1.58万亿，仅小幅缩量475亿。 整体看， 市场交易情绪 ...

微信编辑 | 生产队的驴 2025.06. 20 作者 | 一财资讯 截至午盘， 上证指数报3364.83点，涨0.08%，深成指报10032.64点，跌0.19%，创业板指报 2015.47点，跌0.56%。全市场超3200只个股下跌，近2000只个股上涨。 | 全A | 涨 1941 | 平 268 | 跌 3206 | A股成交额 | 6863.5亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | A股重要指数 | | | | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | | | | 上证指数 | 3364.83 | +2.72 | +0.08% | | | | 深证成指 | 10032.64 | -19.33 | -0.19% | | | | 北证50 | 1363.90 | -1.88 | -0.14% | | | | 创业板指 | 2015.47 | -11.35 | -0.56% | | 银行股持续走强，交通银行等多股创历史新高；白酒、固态电池、光刻机概念涨幅居前，军工、油 气、稳定币概念局部活跃；短剧、CPO概念集体熄火。 | 板块名称 | 涨幅号 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a low opening on Monday, followed by a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3384 points [1] - Cultural media, gaming, software development, and internet services sectors performed well, while precious metals, jewelry, aviation, and aerospace sectors showed weaker performance [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, with further overseas liquidity easing still pending [1] Group 2 - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the market saw significant adjustments in the previous trading day, but fear sentiment has decreased after the weekend, leading to a rebound [2] - The trading volume has decreased significantly, indicating that market sentiment still needs improvement, and the A-share market is likely to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term [2] - The A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase since the "924" rally, with a wide fluctuation trend, and future policy announcements in late July and September are critical for breaking out of this range [2]

特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 【金工】市场风格或有切换——金融工程市场跟踪周报20250615 本周市场震荡收跌，主要宽基指数仅创业板指实现上涨。资金面方面，本周ETF延续净流出，大盘ETF为净流 出主力。近期市场逐步从宽幅震荡过渡至窄幅震荡，指数运行区间收缩过程中量能整体亦有放大，且高位常伴 资金止盈——后市运行或转向弱市整固。风格层面，前期以北证、微盘为代表的极小市值方向或有持续调整压 力，短期或呈现大市值占优特点。 （祁嫣然/张威）2025-06-15 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【有色】5月国内废铜产量9.2万吨，同比下降20%、环比上升5%——铜行业周报（20250609-20250613） 小结：贸易冲突对经济负面影响尚未完全显现， ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 截面波动率来看，最近一周沪深300指数成分股横截面波动率环比上周上升，短期Alpha环境好转；最近一 周中证500、中证1000指数成分股横截面波动率环比上周下降，短期Alpha环境减弱。 时间序列上来看，最近一周沪深300指数成分股时间序列波动率环比上周上升，Alpha环境好转；中证 500、中证1000指数成分股时间序列波动率环比上周下降，Alpha环境恶化。 资金面跟踪： 报告摘要 本周市场核心观点： 本周（2025.06.09-2025.06.13，下同）市场震荡收跌，主要宽基指数仅创业板指实现上涨。资金面方面， 本周ETF延续净流出，大盘ETF为净流出主力。 主题方面，交易主线尚不明朗，周内仍呈现主题快速轮动特征。近期市场逐步 ...

- The report discusses the **Volume Timing Signal** for broad-based indices, indicating a bullish view across all indices as of June 13, 2025[24][25] - The **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio Sentiment Indicator** is introduced, calculated as the proportion of HS300 constituent stocks with positive returns over the past N days. This indicator is effective in capturing upward opportunities but has limitations in predicting market downturns. As of June 13, 2025, the indicator shows a slight decline but remains above 60%, reflecting positive market sentiment[25][26] - The **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio Timing Strategy** applies two smoothing windows (N1=50, N2=35) to the sentiment indicator. When the short-term line exceeds the long-term line, it signals a bullish market view. As of June 13, 2025, both lines are trending downward, with the short-term line below the long-term line, suggesting a cautious market outlook[27][29] - The **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** uses eight moving averages (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) to assess the HS300 index's trend. The indicator assigns values of -1, 0, or 1 based on the position of the index within predefined ranges. As of June 13, 2025, the HS300 index is in a positive sentiment zone, indicating a bullish trend[33][37] - **Cross-sectional Volatility** is analyzed for HS300, CSI500, and CSI1000 indices. Over the past week, HS300's cross-sectional volatility increased, improving the short-term alpha environment, while CSI500 and CSI1000 saw declines, weakening their alpha environments. Over the last quarter, HS300's volatility is in the upper half of its six-month range, indicating a favorable alpha environment, while CSI500 and CSI1000 are in the lower and middle ranges, respectively[38][40] - **Time-series Volatility** is also examined for the same indices. Over the past week, HS300's time-series volatility increased, enhancing its alpha environment, while CSI500 and CSI1000 experienced declines, worsening their alpha environments. Over the last quarter, HS300's volatility is in the upper half of its six-month range, while CSI500 and CSI1000 are in the middle ranges, indicating a generally stable alpha environment[40][43]