证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 春季躁动提前启动，牛市格局依旧未改 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周（2025/12/29-2026/1/2）韩国综合指数、港股恒生科技指数、中国台湾加权指数领涨全球，美股 三大股指领跌。A 股方面，周期、成长板块表现较好，一级行业中石油石化、军工、传媒领涨；公用事业跌幅居 前。元旦后首个交易日（1 月 2 日），港股迎来"开门红"，恒生科技指数单日大涨 4%，其中半导体、AI 算力、互 联网巨头方向大涨，显示市场风险偏好回暖。大宗商品方面，本周基本金属、原油上涨，贵金属下跌，其中 COMEX 白银、COMEX 黄金分别下跌 6.39%、4.63%。外汇方面，离岸人民币兑美元汇率继续走强，周五升破 6.97。 ·市场展望：春季躁动提前，牛市格局依旧未改。2026 年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春 季躁动已提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来看，2026 年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投 资规划，同时财政 ...

投资要点 市场回顾：本周（2025/12/29-2026/1/2）韩国综合指数、港股恒生科技指数、中国台湾加权指数领涨全球，美股三大股指领跌。A股方面，周期、成长板 块表现较好，一级行业中石油石化、军工、传媒领涨；公用事业跌幅居前。元旦后首个交易日（1月2日），港股迎来"开门红"，恒生科技指数单日大涨 4%，其中半导体、AI算力、互联网巨头方向大涨，显示市场风险偏好回暖。大宗商品方面，本周基本金属、原油上涨，贵金属下跌，其中COMEX白 银、COMEX黄金分别下跌6.39%、4.63%。外汇方面，离岸人民币兑美元汇率继续走强，周五升破6.97。 市场展望：春季躁动提前，牛市格局依旧未改。2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎：一是宏观政策周期来 看，2026年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投资规划，同时财政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资 金层面，12月以股票型ETF为代表的机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金入市有望强化春季行情趋势；三 是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预 ...

来源：申万宏源 一、25 年12 月PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年12 月PMI、生产、新订 单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与26 年春节较晚，出口订单前置直接相 关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风险后，一个没有重大下行风险 + 有利因素可期的窗口随之展开。我们继续提示，春季 支撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续：2 月春节前反弹是A 股胜率最高的日历特征之一，同时这也是科技领域 可能兑现重磅催化的窗口。3 月两会可能审议十五五规划正式稿，政策催化可能更加丰富。4 月特朗普 可能访华，中美经贸关系缓和确认期，也是稳定资本市场预期的关键窗口。上证综指连续阳线后，春季 行情仍有纵深。 二、经济和产业是慢变量，资金供需是快变量，这个特征在春季行情中可能更加突出。25年底中证 A500ETF 冲量已进入稳定期，年初增量资金可能是保险开门红 + 年初人民币汇率升值共振外资活跃度 恢复。岁末年初不缺增量资金，A 股开门红可期，赚钱效应可能普遍扩散。板块轮动，主题活跃特征可 能延续。 三、2026 年全面牛条件会逐步完备，这是一个动态发展的过程 ...

证券分析师 博静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 干胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 开门红 申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 2026年01月04日 相关研究 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善。春节较晚，出口订单前置，支撑岁末年 初经济验证。春季没有下行风险的格局再强化，且有利于行情演绎的窗口连续不断。上 证综指连续阳线后，春季行情仍有纵深。 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 排除经济下行风 ...

证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 开门红 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 一 周 回 顾 展 望 告 联系人 ⚫ 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 ⚫ 排除经济下行风险后，一个没有重大下行风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The telecommunications industry is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected revenue and net profit increase of 5.2% and 12.3% respectively for the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Industry Growth Projections - The total revenue and net profit for the selected 137 listed companies in the telecommunications sector are forecasted to grow by 5.2% and 12.3% year-on-year by Q3 2025 [1] - The light communication sector is anticipated to continue high net profit growth driven by increased global AI computing power investments [1] - The telecom operator segment is expected to maintain steady net profit growth [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The ICT equipment and IDC sectors are likely to benefit from increased capital expenditures by internet giants [1] - The copper connection sector is expected to continue releasing capacity, leading to net profit growth [1] - Demand for hollow-core optical fibers, submarine cables, and DCI in the optical fiber and cable sector is worth monitoring [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication sector and communication equipment manufacturing [6]. Core Insights - The communication industry showed a steady growth in 3Q25, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 5.2% and 12.3% year-on-year, respectively [9]. - The growth is driven by the AI computing demand, particularly benefiting the optical communication and copper connection sectors, while telecom operators are expected to maintain stable growth [9][20]. - The report highlights the potential for high growth in net profit for the optical communication sector due to increased investments in AI computing capabilities [9][20]. Summary by Sections Telecom Operators - The three major telecom operators reported a revenue and net profit growth of 1.1% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [2][20]. - Traditional business revenue growth has slowed, but emerging AI applications are expected to drive growth in cloud computing and data center services [2][20]. - The operators' return on equity (ROE) continues to improve due to reduced capital expenditures and enhanced operational efficiency [2][25]. Optical Communication - The optical module and optical device sectors experienced significant growth, with total revenue and net profit increasing by 51% and 123% year-on-year, respectively [3][33]. - Key players like Zhongji Xuchuang benefited from sustained demand for 800G optical modules and the ramp-up of 1.6T products [3][33]. - Future demand for optical devices is expected to recover as the market for 800G and 1.6T optical modules expands [3][33]. Copper Connection - The copper connection sector saw a revenue and net profit increase of 26% and 72% year-on-year, respectively [4][63]. - Companies like Huafeng Technology are expected to benefit from the release of domestic super node projects, despite some short-term fluctuations in profit due to client pricing adjustments [4][63]. - The sector's growth is supported by the introduction of new AI-related products and the anticipated demand from super node deployments [4][63]. IDC (Internet Data Center) - The IDC sector reported a revenue decline of 1.6% but a net profit increase of 236% year-on-year, driven by successful public REITs projects [37]. - AI demand is expected to enhance the industry's growth prospects, although short-term challenges remain due to AI chip supply constraints [37][42]. - The report anticipates that as domestic AI chip production increases, the supply issues will gradually resolve, leading to improved performance in the IDC sector [37][42]. General Trends - The overall communication industry is benefiting from AI computing investments, with various segments such as optical modules, copper connections, and IDC showing promising growth trajectories [9][20][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to the evolving landscape driven by AI and cloud computing, which is reshaping demand across the communication sector [9][20].

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Overweight" [10] - The communication equipment manufacturing sector is also rated as "Overweight" [10] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a significant increase in holdings, with the top ten funds holding 7.26% of the communication sector, up 3.58 percentage points from the previous quarter, marking the highest quarterly holding ratio since 2019 [2][3] - The sector's overweight ratio increased to 3.36%, up 2.90 percentage points from the previous quarter [3][14] - Key areas of investment include optical modules, liquid cooling, optical chips, and optical fiber cables, while operators, data centers, and Beidou systems saw reduced holdings [3][14] - The TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the communication sector as of November 7, 2025, is 43.62x, which is at the 69.3% historical percentile since early 2011 [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication index rose by 0.92% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.08% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.19% [2][13] Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, public funds increased their holdings in the communication sector, with significant increases in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Yingweike, and Yuanjie Technology, with total market value increases of 82.43 billion, 78.93 billion, 9.29 billion, 4.06 billion, and 3.79 billion respectively [3][25] - The top five companies by increase in holdings during Q3 2025 saw stock price increases of 176.8%, 188.0%, 110.8%, 169.2%, and 120.3% respectively [25][26] Key Companies and Recommendations - Recommended companies include Xinyi Sheng, Zhongxing Communication, Ruijie Network, China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, and Hengtong Optoelectronics, all rated as "Buy" [10][58] - The report highlights the potential for AI computing chain investments, particularly in optical modules and related technologies [2][3] Valuation and Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the AI computing sector, with companies like Xinyi Sheng expected to benefit significantly from the demand for high-speed products [59][62] - Adjustments to profit forecasts for companies like Zhongxing Communication and Ruijie Network reflect a cautious outlook due to market conditions, but long-term growth potential remains [59][62]

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence sector, particularly in the context of optical modules, is experiencing significant growth, driven by increased demand and technological advancements in AI and chip technology [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The optical module CPO continues to strengthen, with the proportion of optical modules exceeding 51% in the ChiNext AI index reaching new highs [1]. - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) has seen a notable increase, rising over 1% to reach a new high, with real-time transaction volume exceeding 250 million yuan [1]. - The ChiNext AI index has accumulated a rise of over 18% since last week, significantly outperforming other AI-themed indices [4]. Group 2: Company Developments - Qualcomm launched AI chips, the AI200 and AI250, expected to be commercially available in 2026 and 2027, respectively, intensifying competition with Nvidia [3]. - The demand for 1.6T optical modules has been revised upwards, with total industry demand expected to increase from 10 million to 20 million units due to accelerated deployment of GB300 and Rubin platforms [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Haitong Securities suggests focusing on the performance of AI computing power chains, with expectations of continued high growth in the third quarter for leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [3]. - The first ChiNext AI ETF (159363) is highlighted for its significant allocation to optical module leaders, with over 70% of its portfolio focused on computing power [6].

Core Insights - The A-share communication and electronics sectors experienced a strong rebound on October 16, with the 5G Communication ETF (515050) rising over 2.5% during trading, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China announced a meeting between its minister and Apple CEO Tim Cook, focusing on Apple's business development in China and enhancing cooperation in the electronic information sector [1] - As the third-quarter earnings reporting period approaches, Haitong Securities highlighted the potential for performance realization in the AI computing power chain, with expectations for continued growth in the optical communication sector and a recovery in the optical fiber and cable market [1] Industry Overview - The 5G Communication ETF (515050) tracks the CSI 5G Communication Theme Index, with a current scale exceeding 8 billion yuan, focusing on the supply chains of Nvidia, Apple, and Huawei [2] - The index has a high purity of "hard technology," with communication and electronics sectors accounting for nearly 80% of its weight, specifically 44% for communication and 35% for electronics, creating a closed loop of "network construction + terminal support" [2] - For higher elasticity, investors may consider the AI ETF tracking the ChiNext AI Index, which has a significant weight in optical modules and covers domestic software and AI application companies [2]