1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically [1][2][4][6][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodities are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4016.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.07% and an overnight increase of 0.73%. The latest prices and percentage changes of several currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.29, down 0.42% [1] Spot Market Conditions - On December 23, 2025, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE soybean oil 2605, and DCE soybean meal 2605 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8570, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the weather in most soybean - growing areas is generally favorable for crop growth, but the significant reduction in precipitation in the eastern parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais states may be a concern. In Argentina, most areas have suitable soil moisture for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4] International Supply - Demand - Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 billion liters, similar to 2025. The country plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The USDA export sales report shows that as of December 11, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil exports have different net increases and shipment situations. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop production is estimated at 178.3 million tons, and Argentina's November soybean crushing and inventory data are also provided. The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to a five - month low [6][7][9][10] Domestic Market Transactions and Inventory - On December 23, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 77% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national major oil mills'开机 rate increased to 58.35%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons from December 16 to December 23 [11] Macro - economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 13.3%, and there are various US economic data such as GDP, consumer confidence index, and API crude oil inventory [13] Domestic News - On December 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 49 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [15] Market Capital Flow - On December 23, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.651 billion yuan, with different capital flow situations in commodity futures, stock index futures, and bond futures [17] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

Market Insights - President Trump calls for the next Federal Reserve chairman to lower interest rates decisively when the economy and markets are performing strongly, rather than tightening policy too early due to inflation concerns. He criticizes the current market logic, stating that "good news has become bad news," and emphasizes that low interest rates can boost the stock market, stimulate the economy, and alleviate housing burdens. He suggests that a thriving stock market could lead to a GDP growth of 10% to 20% in the U.S. [1][6] - The U.S. third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 4.3%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023 and indicating strong economic resilience [1][6]. - The core PCE price index for the third quarter shows an annualized quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.9%, consistent with expectations and up from the second quarter's final value of 2.6%. The overall PCE price index also rises by 2.8%, indicating that inflation remains on a moderate upward trajectory [1][7]. Manufacturing Sector - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 2.2% month-on-month in October, significantly worse than the expected decline of 1.5%, with the previous value revised down from +0.5%, highlighting weakened manufacturing momentum [2][7]. - U.S. industrial production increased by 0.2% month-on-month in November, slightly above the market expectation of 0.1%, marking the second consecutive month of expansion and indicating a slow recovery in manufacturing activity [2][7]. - The Richmond Fed manufacturing index for December improved to -7, better than the expected -10 and the previous value of -15, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of regional manufacturing contraction, although it has not yet returned to expansion [2][7]. Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.16% to 48,442.41 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.46% to 6,909.79 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.57% to 23,561.84 points [3][8]. - COMEX gold futures increased by 1.09% to $4,518.20 per ounce, reaching a new intraday historical high, while COMEX silver futures rose by 4.40% to $71.585 per ounce, also setting a new historical peak [3][8]. Oil and Bond Markets - U.S. crude oil futures rose by 0.79% to $58.47 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.62% to $61.96 per barrel [4][9]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.18 basis points to 3.532%, the 3-year yield increased by 3.63 basis points to 3.583%, the 5-year yield rose by 2.65 basis points to 3.734%, the 10-year yield increased by 0.40 basis points to 4.165%, and the 30-year yield fell by 1.12 basis points to 4.824% [4][9].

Core Insights - The U.S. economy exhibited its fastest expansion in two years during the third quarter, driven by strong consumer and business spending along with more stable trade policies [1] Economic Performance - Consumer spending, the largest pillar of the U.S. economy, grew by 3.5% in the third quarter, significantly higher than the 2.5% growth in the second quarter, indicating strong consumer willingness despite borrowing cost pressures [5] - Non-residential investment continued to grow but saw a slowdown from 7.3% in the previous quarter to 2.8% [5] - Residential investment declined by 5.1%, consistent with the previous quarter's decline [5] - Gross Domestic Income (GDI) increased by 2.4%, down from 3.8% in the previous quarter [6] Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The economic report reflects growth momentum despite the withdrawal of Trump-era tariff policies, with the BEA adjusting its data release schedule due to a record-long government shutdown [7] - Economists anticipate that the government shutdown may pressure fourth-quarter growth, but there is cautious optimism for 2026, with expectations of a mild rebound as households receive tax refunds and potential judicial rulings may overturn extensive global tariff policies [7] Federal Reserve Position - Strong economic data aligns with the Federal Reserve's latest forecasts, with Chairman Powell citing supportive fiscal policies, spending on AI data centers, and sustained household consumption as key growth drivers for next year [8] - Some officials remain hesitant to significantly lower borrowing costs due to inflation rates exceeding the Fed's 2% target, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising by 2.9% in the third quarter [8] Key Economic Indicators - The annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth for the third quarter was 4.3%, surpassing the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8% [9] - The annualized quarter-on-quarter core PCE price index was 2.9%, matching expectations and up from 2.6% [9]

上周（12月1日~12月5日）周初受制造业PMI数据下滑、哈塞特当选概率大涨影响，降息预期大幅 升温，推动金价上涨，一度逼近4300美元关口。随后美国PCE符合预期，金价大幅跳水回落。截至上周 收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度跌0.64%报4227.7美元/盎司；截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）周度 涨0.81%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨3.85%。 消息面上，上周五晚间美联储最青睐的通胀指标数据公布，美国9月核心PCE物价指数环比上涨 0.2%，与预期值一致。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，彭博社调查预期为2.8%，亦符合预 期。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.2%。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 相关分析指出，在美联储12月议息会议前夕公布的上述PCE物价数据依旧支撑美联储继续降息25个 基 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the economic indicators for the United States in September, including personal income, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), and core PCE inflation rates [1] Group 2 - In September, personal income in the U.S. increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and matching the previous month's value [1] - The actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in September showed no change (0%) month-on-month, falling short of the expected increase of 0.1% and significantly lower than the previous month's increase of 0.4% [1] - The core PCE price index for September rose by 0.2% month-on-month, aligning with expectations and the previous month's figure [1] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index stood at 2.83%, slightly above the expected 2.8% and down from the previous 2.9% [1] - The overall PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations and remaining consistent with the previous month's increase [1] - Year-on-year, the PCE price index was reported at 2.8%, matching expectations and showing an increase from the previous 2.7% [1]

12月5日，金价早盘震荡调整，午后反弹走强，纽约金价重新站上4250美元关口，截至A股收盘， COMEX黄金期货交投于4257美元/盎司附近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.81%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨 2.25%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.21%。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius认为，近期延迟发布的9月非农就业报告显示，美国劳动力市场明显出现 了降温迹象，这可能意味着美联储12月降息25个基点已经基本板上钉钉。高盛认为，美国通胀率的上升 不太可能破坏他们对联邦基金利率的预测。美国的潜在通胀率已降至约2%，而一旦关税传导效应在 2026年年中结束，实际的核心PCE通胀率应会进一步下降。 近期劳动力市场数据信号不一：周四数据显示上周初请失业金人数降至逾三年最低，但周三的ADP报告 则显示民间就业岗位减少。市场焦点已完全转向将于今晚发布的美国9月PCE物价指数，这是美联储最 青睐的通胀指标。 ...

文章来源：金投网 北京时间周五（12月5日）亚盘时段，国际白银震荡微升，截至发稿，国际白银价格暂报57.13美元/盎 司，上涨0.07%，目前来看，国际银价盘内短线偏向看涨走势。随着美国9月个人消费支出（PCE）物价 指数报告的即将公布，投资者们正屏息以待，这份美联储青睐的通胀指标将直接影响12月政策会议的决 策方向。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 【要闻速递】 周四美国国债价格下跌结束了连续三天的上涨，10年期国债收益率上涨5.2个基点至4.108%，30年期收 益率上涨4.1个基点至4.766%，两年期收益率上涨4.5个基点至3.531%。这一抛售潮部分归因于劳动力市 场韧性的显现，略微打击了降息预期，同时投资者在美联储会议前整固仓位。 美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数环比大降53.4%至7.1321万人，前值15.3074万人；美国上周初请失业金人 数录得19.1万人，为2022年9月24日当周以来新低，不及市场预期的22万人。 尽管续请人数居高不下表明市场仍疲软，但整体读数偏低导致收益率反弹。收益率曲线的变化不大，两 年/10年期差维持在57.7个基点附近，显示市场对经 ...

昨日12月4日（星期四），黄金早盘小幅上涨4217附近受阻下跌，到中午最低跌至4175附近。随后行情企稳开始震荡上涨，到凌晨最高上涨至4219/4220区 域，收盘前回落至4200-4210区间震荡，日线收出一根下影线长于上影线的十字阳线。 一、基本面 1、美国劳动力市场数据 核心利好数据：12月4日公布的上周初请失业金人数降至19.1万人，创逾三年新低，远低于22万人的预期，降幅达2.7万人；未经季节性调整申请人数骤降近5 万至19.7221万人，续请失业金人数减少4000人至193.9万人，缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。 整体来看，短期，在PCE数据公布前，市场观望情绪浓厚，黄金或维持窄幅震荡，受美债收益率上涨与美元弱势双重作用，难现大幅突破。中长线上，全球 不确定性持续，黄金避险属性仍具吸引力；劳动力市场韧性与美联储降息预期为金价提供支撑，若PCE数据低于预期，或触发新一轮买盘。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金价格于周三呈现冲高回落态势，周四则下探后震荡回升，整体围绕4200上下展开区间震荡。从技术指标来看，5日均线已逐步走平，10日 均线与20日均线维持多头发散格局，短期趋势仍具一定支撑性。 今日开盘价位于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview from December 1 - 7, 2025, including the expected data of various economic indicators and their potential impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog This Week's Key Focus - On December 1 at 09:45, Markit will release China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI [2]. - On December 4 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 [2]. - On December 5 at 23:00, the US Department of Commerce will release the US September PCE price index [2]. - On December 7 at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will announce November foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This Week's Hot - Spot Preview December 1 - China's November SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 51.1 (previous 50.9). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [2]. - US November ISM manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 48.5 (previous 48.7). A slight decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures, but help gold and silver futures [3]. December 2 - Eurozone November CPI initial value: Expected harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted initial value is 2.1% (same as previous) [4]. - Eurozone October unemployment rate: Expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [7]. December 3 - China's November SPGI services PMI and composite PMI: Expected services PMI is 51.9 (previous 52.6), composite PMI is 51.5 (previous 51.8). A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures, but help treasury bond futures [8]. - US November ADP employment change: Expected new employment is 55,000 (previous 42,000). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - US September industrial production monthly rate: Expected to be 0 (previous 0.1%) [10]. - US November ISM non - manufacturing PMI: Expected to be 53.5 (previous 52.4). A slight increase may suppress gold and silver futures [11]. - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending November 28: A continued increase may suppress crude oil and related commodity futures [12]. December 4 - November下旬 prices of important production materials in the circulation field: The National Bureau of Statistics will release prices of 9 categories and 50 products [13]. - Eurozone October retail sales: Previous monthly rate was - 0.1%, annual rate was 1.0% [14]. - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29: Expected to be 212,000 (previous 216,000). A slight decrease may suppress gold and silver futures and help other industrial futures [15]. December 5 - US September factory orders monthly rate: Previous was 1.4% [16]. - US September PCE price index: Expected annual rate is 2.7% (same as previous), core annual rate is 2.9% (same as previous), core monthly rate is 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Specific changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [17]. - US September personal expenditure monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (previous 0.6%) [18]. - US September personal income monthly rate: Expected to be 0.4% (same as previous) [19]. - US December University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value: Expected to be 52 (previous 51). An increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures, but suppress gold and silver futures [20]. December 7 - China's November foreign exchange reserves: Previous was $3343 billion, gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. The trading volume in the two markets slightly decreased. Due to the previous U.S. government shutdown, the latest PCE price index was not available, and the expectation of interest rate cuts did not change much. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating a continuation of the weak fundamental state. Without new positive factors, the stock index maintained a volatile trend today. However, except for the slight convergence of the discount of IF in the basis of stock index futures, the discounts of the rest deepened. The dividend index led the rise again, indicating that market sentiment has cooled down and become more cautious. Currently, both the upper pressure and the lower support have weakened. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a narrow - range oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose first and then fell, showing mixed trends. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.05%. In terms of capital, the trading volume in the two markets decreased by 735.53 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IM declined with increasing volume, and the rest of the varieties also declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, with an expected 225,000 [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.33 | -0.08 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.0893 | 4.2497 | 11.2976 | 18.3443 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.3606 | 0.7008 | 0.6006 | 0.5893 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4196 | 9.2285 | 25.457 | 36.4043 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.4902 | 0.6077 | 0.5482 | 0.2816 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.29 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.14 | | Trading volume in the two markets (billion yuan) | 17097.94 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -735.53 | [6]