1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Range - bound trading [2][4] - Rebar: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Wide - range trading [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Silicomanganese: Wide - range trading [2][10] - Coke: Wide - range trading [2][14] - Coking coal: Wide - range trading affected by events [2][15] - Logs: Range - bound trading [2][19] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend intensities for various black - series commodities, and presents their fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news [2][4][6] 3. Summaries by Commodities Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The closing price of I2605 was 762.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.13%); the position decreased by 6,983 hands to 506,957 hands [4] - **Spot Price**: Imported and domestic ore prices remained stable [4] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed slightly [4] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [4] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Position**: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.07%); the closing price of HC2605 was 3,228 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%). The position of RB2605 decreased by 1,877 hands, and that of HC2605 increased by 9,529 hands [6] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in major cities remained unchanged [6] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [6] - **News**: On February 5th, steel production, inventory and apparent demand data changed; in late January, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data changed; BHP's iron ore production hit a record high; China's steel import data changed; some steel products were subject to export license management [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price and Position**: The closing prices of SiFe2603 and SiFe2605 decreased, while those of SiMn2603 and SiMn2605 increased [11] - **News**: A new capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia was ignited; Jupiter would not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were reported; a steel mill's silicon - iron procurement price was determined; electricity prices in some southern regions increased, and southern silicon - manganese production was expected to decrease [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Position**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,123.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton (0.4%); the closing price of J2605 was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.1%). The position of JM2605 decreased by 14,309 hands, and that of J2605 increased by 820 hands [15] - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained stable, with a 2 - yuan increase in Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spreads of some contracts changed [15] - **News**: On February 11th, CCI metallurgical coal index data was reported; the coking coal online auction had a 43% non - successful bid rate, with most transaction prices falling [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [18] Logs - **Price, Volume and Position**: The closing prices, trading volumes and positions of different log contracts changed, with some showing declines. Spot prices in most regions remained stable [19] - **News**: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 1.4% year - on - year; China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [21]

Group 1: Market Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank's net injection of 352.5 billion yuan on January 30 indicates a stable liquidity environment, with overnight funds becoming more relaxed [1] - The interbank liquidity remained stable with minor fluctuations in overnight rates, and the weighted DR007 rate decreased by 11 basis points to 1.48% on February 5 [1][12] - The central bank conducted a 3-month reverse repurchase operation of 800 billion yuan, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan due to the maturity of 700 billion yuan in reverse repos [1][12] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3%, down from 50.1% in the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][13] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4% from 50.2%, suggesting a decline in service sector activity [2][13] - The composite PMI dropped to 49.8% from 50.7%, reflecting overall economic weakness amid insufficient domestic demand and high industrial inventory levels [2][13] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The Guokai ETF (159650) focuses on policy financial bonds, which are characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment options [3][14] - The product features of Guokai ETF include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, making it a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [3][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a peak in government bond issuance with a net financing amount of nearly 800 billion yuan, supported by the central bank's liquidity measures, leading to a downward trend in bond yields, particularly in the long end of the curve [1][6] - The bond market is expected to remain stable due to the central bank's continued support, with a focus on the maturity of 6-month reverse repos, while the 10-year government bond yield approaches the critical level of 1.8%, which may exert pressure on the bond market [1][16] - The yield curve for government bonds shows a general decline in yields across various maturities, with notable decreases in the long-term bonds [2][3] Group 2 - In the primary market, a total of 122 bonds were issued last week, amounting to 1,206.73 billion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 39.7 billion yuan and local government bonds for 579.67 billion yuan [6] - The upcoming week is projected to see the issuance of 55 bonds totaling 489.14 billion yuan, indicating ongoing robust supply in the bond market [6] - The central bank's operations included multiple reverse repos, with a significant 8 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity [12][13] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline following weak labor market data, reflecting broader market sentiments and potential impacts on investment strategies [7][10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with an increase in initial jobless claims and a significant drop in job vacancies, which may influence future economic outlooks and bond market dynamics [9][10] - The U.S. Treasury's decision to maintain its current bond issuance strategy suggests a stable approach to debt management amidst changing market conditions [11] Group 4 - Analysts from Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities express cautious optimism regarding the bond market, anticipating stable performance leading up to the Spring Festival, while also noting potential pressures from profit-taking and equity market stabilization [16][17] - Financial strategies are shifting towards duration strategies, with recommendations for specific bond types to optimize returns in the current market environment [17]

Group 1: Copper Market - The macroeconomic environment shows a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, and a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown following a funding agreement [3][19] - Domestic manufacturing PMI in China rose to a three-month high of 50.3 in January, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][19] - Copper concentrate prices remain at historical lows, supporting a tight supply sentiment, while February's estimated electrolytic copper production is projected at 1.1435 million tons, a 0.3% decrease month-on-month but an 8.1% increase year-on-year [4][20] - The net imports of refined copper in December fell by 48.44% year-on-year to 201,800 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 14.81% month-on-month to 239,000 tons [4][20] - Global visible copper inventories increased by 29,000 tons to 1.123 million tons as of February 6, with LME and Comex inventories also rising [4][20] - The market anticipates short-term price corrections due to demand disruptions around the Chinese New Year, but strong support is seen below 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating continued investor interest [5][21] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel ore premiums have increased, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising by $4.5/ton to $30/ton, while refined nickel production is expected to decline by 5% month-on-month to 35,800 tons [6][22] - The demand for new energy materials is projected to decrease, with February's production of ternary precursors expected to drop by 7% to 80,790 tons and ternary materials by 15% to 69,250 tons [6][22] - Stainless steel prices have generally declined, with total social inventory increasing by 1.29% week-on-week to 965,000 tons [6][22] - Market sentiment remains mixed, with nickel prices experiencing fluctuations, but cost support remains strong due to supply concerns from Indonesia [7][23] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Alumina futures have shown a strong upward trend, with prices reaching 2,824 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2%, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 5.1% to 23,315 yuan/ton [8][24] - The operating rate of alumina plants increased by 0.53% to 77.8%, while the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise to 44.1 million tons, with a production of 343,200 tons [8][24] - Social inventories of alumina increased by 5,020 tons to 176,000 tons, while aluminum ingots saw a weekly increase of 5,400 tons to 836,000 tons [9][25] - The market anticipates a potential rebound in aluminum prices post-holiday, with attention on inventory levels and external market influences during the holiday period [9][26] Group 4: Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon futures have shown a weak trend, with prices dropping to 8,500 yuan/ton, while polysilicon prices increased to 49,285 yuan/ton [11][27] - The production of industrial silicon decreased by 10,340 tons to 63,300 tons, with a notable reduction in operational furnaces [11][27] - The demand for polysilicon is under pressure, with significant price adjustments and a slowdown in new orders due to seasonal factors [12][28] - The market is expected to face challenges as supply tightens, with a focus on the upcoming demand recovery in the traditional peak season [12][29] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with a projected decline of 16.3% in February [14][30] - The production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate is also expected to decline, reflecting a broader trend in the lithium battery supply chain [14][31] - Social inventories of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [14][33] - Market sentiment remains volatile, with price fluctuations influenced by downstream demand and strategic stocking behaviors ahead of the holiday [14][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent economic indicators, particularly the manufacturing PMI, have shown a decline, suggesting a cautious outlook for the manufacturing sector and potential implications for the bond market [2][3]. - The official manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing demand [2][3]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, but the new orders index fell to 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in demand [2][3]. Group 2 - The price indices show a mixed picture, with the raw material purchase price index rising to 56.1%, indicating increased costs, while the factory price index rose to 50.6%, suggesting limited price transmission from raw materials to finished goods [2][3]. - The inventory management of manufacturing firms appears cautious, with raw material inventory index at 47.4% and finished goods inventory index at 48.6%, indicating a proactive reduction in raw materials and a passive accumulation of finished goods [2][3]. - The funding environment remains loose, with the central bank maintaining a supportive liquidity stance, and the interbank market showing a balanced liquidity condition [4][5]. Group 3 - The bond market is expected to experience limited downward movement in the short to medium term due to the current economic fundamentals and the central bank's liquidity support [5]. - The anticipated large-scale government bond supply and the upcoming seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival may lead to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [4][5]. - Overall, the combination of weaker PMI data, a loose funding environment, and increased volatility in risk assets is seen as favorable for the bond market, although caution is advised due to potential seasonal fluctuations [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The global currency market is experiencing stable trading with a lack of clear directional guidance, as various economic data and key events are set to be released, influencing market sentiment and currency valuations [1][5]. Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes the U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventory data, China's Caixin Services PMI, and various PMIs from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK for January [1][8]. - The U.S. ADP employment figures and the final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for January will also be closely monitored [1][8]. Currency Analysis - **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)**: Currently in a weak consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.75-97.82 and support at 97.45 and 97.20 [2]. - **GBP/USD**: The pair is under pressure, with significant resistance at 1.3710 and support at 1.3650, indicating a bearish outlook [3]. - **EUR/USD**: The exchange rate is fluctuating around 1.18, with key support at 1.1780 and resistance at 1.1820-1.1850, lacking strong fundamental support [3]. - **USD/JPY**: The pair is trading within a range of 152-156, with resistance at 156.03 and support at 155.28-154.68, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4]. Recent News Impact - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as indicated by comments from officials, is expected to influence the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields significantly [5]. - The U.S.-India trade agreement, which includes reduced tariffs and increased purchases of U.S. goods, is likely to reshape trade dynamics and impact commodity prices [5]. - The recent rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 52.6 suggests a return to expansion, which may bolster the dollar and U.S. equity markets [6]. - Developments in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations could affect oil prices and market sentiment towards risk assets [6]. - The postponement of key employment data due to government shutdowns may lead to increased volatility in the dollar and Treasury markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - China's January RatingDog Services PMI stands at 52.3, exceeding expectations of 52 and the previous value of 52 [1] Group 1 - The Services PMI indicates a continued expansion in the services sector, as a reading above 50 signifies growth [1] - The current PMI value reflects a stable economic environment, suggesting resilience in the services industry [1] - The increase from the previous month's value indicates a positive trend in service sector activity [1]

Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the prices of important production materials in circulation for late January, covering nine categories and 50 products [1] - The expected SPGI services PMI for January is 51.5, slightly down from the previous value of 52.0, while the composite PMI is expected to be 51.2, down from 51.3 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. EIA will announce the crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 30, with the previous value showing a decrease of 2.295 million barrels [2] - A continued decline in crude oil inventory is anticipated to support the rise in crude oil and related commodity futures [2] Group 3 - The European Central Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision, with expectations that the main refinancing rate will remain unchanged at 2.15% [3] - The deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate are also expected to remain at 2% and 2.4%, respectively [3] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31, with expectations of 212,000 claims, up from the previous 209,000 [4] - A slight increase in jobless claims may support the rise in prices for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures [4] Group 5 - The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for February is expected to be 55, down from the previous value of 56.4 [5] - A lower than expected consumer sentiment index may suppress the rise in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while supporting gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures [5] Group 6 - The People's Bank of China will announce the foreign exchange and gold reserves for January, with the foreign exchange reserves reported at $3,357.87 billion and gold reserves at 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025 [6]

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 439.3 billion, and 185 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -113.3 billion, 310.9 billion, and 183 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) had a total issuance scale of 71.8 billion, with a net financing amount of 52.6 billion. Non-financial credit bonds had a total issuance scale of 294.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 149.8 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The sentiment in the bond market continues to recover, with the yield on 10-year government bonds approaching 1.8%. Key influencing factors include institutional behavior, real estate policies, and stock market volatility [2] - The liquidity situation is tightening due to accelerated local bond issuance and month-end disturbances, with R001 and R007 rising by 4.3 basis points and 10.4 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [2][8] Policy and Fundamentals - The manufacturing PMI for January recorded 49.3, indicating a further decline in economic sentiment. High-frequency data shows stable performance on the production side at the beginning of the year, slight improvement in real estate demand, and price differentiation in food and a pullback in the prices of non-ferrous metals [3][9] Overseas Market - President Trump announced the nomination of hawkish member Kevin Walsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds closed at 4.26%, up 2 basis points from the previous week [4][10] Equity Market - Last week, A-shares experienced a pullback after reaching a peak, with the total A-share index down by 1.59%. There was sector divergence, with military, automotive, and computer sectors leading the decline, while the non-ferrous sector fell sharply after extreme trading conditions. The average daily trading volume increased to 3.06 trillion, up by 264.3 billion from the previous week. As of January 29, 2026, the total financing balance for all A-shares was 27,221.87 billion, an increase of 14.679 billion from January 22 [5][11] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - In February, the short-term downward space for bond market yields may be limited as the 10-year government bond approaches the lower range of 1.8-1.9%. There is expected to be an increase in profit-taking demand. The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are anticipated to change, with local bond issuance accelerating again. Seasonal tightening pressure on liquidity before the Spring Festival remains a concern. Overall, the bond market's supply-demand performance at the beginning of 2026 is better than previously expected, with insufficient social credit demand and a slowdown in government bond supply growth. The banking sector's stabilization supports high demand for bond allocation, particularly in the long end, which is under less pressure than previously judged at the end of last year. The bond market is expected to show high certainty in the short and medium term, with long-end fluctuations. Potential directional changes should focus on external inflation transmission and real estate stabilization. There are slightly positive signals in real estate in January, but sustainability remains to be observed in the spring. The PPI for non-ferrous and energy prices shows a trend of rapid recovery [6][12]