Let's get to Rick Santelli. Hey Rick. >> Hi Carl.Indeed. These are December preliminary S&P global PMIs. On the manufacturing front coming in light at 51.8%.Also sequentially lower than last month's final 52.2%. That would be the lowest read since this summer July. If we look at the services 52.9%.We're expecting 54 in the rearview mirror. 54.1%. 52.9% equals where we were in June.To find a lower number, you're going back to April of this year. And finally, on the composite, 53.9% expected. 53 is what arriv ...

每经AI快讯，12月16日消息，英国12月制造业PMI初值51.2，预期50.4，前值50.2。英国12月服务业PMI 初值52.1，预期51.6，前值51.3。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月16日，德国12月制造业PMI初值为47.7，预期48.5；12月服务业PMI初值为52.6，预期 53。 ...

每经AI快讯，12月16日，最新公布数据显示，日本12月服务业PMI初值52.5，前值53.2；12月综合PMI 初值51.5，前值52。 ...

欧美12月PMI表现如何。 本周全球市场风云变幻，美联储宣布年内第三次降息，AI板块抛售潮再起。 市场方面，美股涨跌互现，道指周涨1.05%，纳指周跌1.62%，标普500指数周跌0.63%。欧洲三大股指 分化，英国富时100指数周跌0.19%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.66%，法国CAC 40指数周跌0.57%。 数据方面，市场焦点或将集中于两项因政府停摆而推迟发布的关键数据：定于16日公布的11月非农就业 报告，以及18日出炉的11月消费者物价指数（CPI）。此前公布的11月ADP私营部门就业数据显示，就 业人数减少3.2万人，远逊于市场预期，这一数据预示着非农就业报告存在下行风险。此外，12月标普 全球制造业及服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值、11 月零售销售数据也将分别于16日和17日公布。 美国财政部将于17日拍卖130亿美元20年期国债，并于18日拍卖240亿美元5年期通胀保值债券 （TIPS）。虽然流动性担忧有所缓解，新一轮拍卖仍将考验投资者对长期国债的需求意愿。 财报方面，值得关注的企业包括美光科技、联邦快递、耐克、嘉年华等。 原油与黄金 受地缘政治和全球原油供应持续过剩的拖累，国际油价结 ...

导语 石油和化工行业景气指数由中国石油和化学工业联合会与山东卓创资讯股份有限公司联合编制，是 石油化工行业的微观景气循环监控指标，包括"石油和天然气开采业景气指数""燃料加工业景气指 数""化学原料和化学制品制造业景气指数""橡胶、塑料及其他聚合物制品制造业景气指数"4个分指数。 石油和化工行业景气指数的景气指标选择以度量行业的潜在产出和经济效益为标准，包括生产类微观数 据和行业效益类数据，生产类微观数据包括：产能利用率、产品盈利能力、产成品库存水平。基础数据 来源于与千余家企业建立的定期调研评估结果。 核心摘要 ●终端需求下滑，景气指数回落 2025年11月，石油和化工行业景气指数为97.21，环比下降2.58个百分点，结束了连续两个月的回升。行 业运行的核心逻辑发生变化，前期"需求改善"与"成本红利"的双重驱动减弱，季节性需求转弱成为全行 业的主基调。与此同时，持续的低油价对行业上下游产生了显著的分化效应：对上游的油气开采业形成 价格压制，景气指数下降;对中下游仍有成本红利，但各行业受益程度不同。其中，化学原料和化学制 品制造业凭借需求的刚性，将成本红利转化为利润，景气逆势改善，成为全行业景气的稳定器;而 ...

铜周报 20251207 宏观向上，LME铜注销比猛增， 沪铜预计仍强 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 铜现货流通货源偏紧，铜现货升水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 本周LME铜0-3M升水先涨后跌，周环比走弱 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.86美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增2.71万吨至75.02万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内12月电解铜产量预计环比增5.96%、同比增6.69% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 外盘强 ...

研究所 股市波动加大 债市震荡偏弱 2025-12-17 ----国信期货金融周报 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 行情动能分析 3 基本面重大事件 4 后市展望 研究所 P 第 a 一 r 部 t 分 1 行情回顾 1.1上证50、沪深300行情回顾 研究所 1.2中证500、十年国债行情回顾 研究所 中证500高位回 落。 国债期货回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 5 上证50、沪深 300高位震荡。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 4 上证50成交额 回落、沪深300 数据来源：wind 国信期货 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 行情动能分析 2.1.1上证50、沪深300成交额 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 7 成交额回落。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 2.1.2中证500、中证1000成交额 研究所 中证500成交额， 中证1000成交额维 持低量。 数据来源：wind 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 8 2. ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral to positive investment rating for the bond market. It suggests that investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year, and is optimistic about the bond market's performance in the medium term. [4][37] 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing demand drives production recovery, with the November manufacturing PMI rising slightly to 49.20%, but still below the boom - bust line. The new order index and production index have both increased. The improvement in the foreign trade environment due to Sino - US economic and trade consultations has led to an overall recovery in demand, which in turn has accelerated production. [2][13] - The improvement in the international trade environment has led to a recovery in external demand, driving a phased repair of demand. The new export order index and import index have both increased in November, and the BDI index has increased by 31.28%. However, there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [2][23] - The manufacturing price end continues to show positive changes. The raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased, which may promote the repair of the manufacturing production end. [3][27] - Non - manufacturing business has slowed down. The service industry PMI has declined due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday, and the construction industry is still in the contraction range, but infrastructure - related activities continue to grow. [3][34] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Manufacturing Production Shows Slight Repair - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The new order index rose 0.40 percentage points to 49.20%, and the production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 50.00%. [13] - Among different manufacturing industries, the PMI of high - tech manufacturing remains in the expansion range, while the PMI of equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries has fallen into the contraction range, and the PMI of basic raw material industries has increased. [13] 3.2 External Environment Drives Demand Recovery - In November, the new export order index was 47.60%, up 1.70 percentage points from the previous value, and the import index was 47.00%, up 0.20 percentage points from the previous value. The BDI index increased by 31.28% in November, indicating an improvement in the external trade environment. [23] - The short - term external environment is easing, but there are still uncertainties in exports that may affect the fourth - quarter economic trend. [23] 3.3 Positive Changes in the Price End Continue - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index remains in the expansion range, and the ex - factory price index has increased. The difference between the two has widened by 0.4 percentage points to 5.40pct. [27] - The raw material purchase price index in November was 53.60%, better than the average of the past five years. The procurement volume index has increased slightly, the ex - factory price index has increased, and the inventory of finished products has decreased. [27] - The economic kinetic energy index in November was 1.90pct, up 1.20 percentage points. The positive recovery in prices may reflect the policy effect of rectifying "involution - style" competition, and the PPI data in November may also show a reaction. [27][29] 3.4 Attention Should Be Paid to Corporate Business Vitality - In November, the PMI of large enterprises was 49.30%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value, while the PMI of medium - sized and small enterprises increased by 0.20 and 2.00 percentage points respectively. [32] - The recovery of external demand helps to improve the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises, but the prosperity of large enterprises is the guarantee of the overall business vitality of domestic enterprises and needs continuous attention. [32] 3.5 Non - manufacturing Prosperity Declines - In November, the official non - manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, down 0.60 percentage points from the previous value. The service industry PMI was 49.50%, down 0.70 percentage points from the previous value due to the high - base effect of the National Day holiday. [34] - After the concentrated release of consumer demand during the National Day Golden Week, the business activity indexes of consumer - related service industries have declined to varying degrees, but the business activity index and new order index of the financial industry have increased significantly. [34] - The construction industry is still in the contraction range, with the business activity index at 49.60%, up 0.50 percentage points from the previous value. Infrastructure - related activities continue to grow, and investment is expected to strengthen at the end of the year. [35] 3.6 Investment Suggestion - The PMI data has a neutral to positive impact on the bond market. As the market sentiment adjusts, investors may increase their allocation to fixed - income assets such as bonds at the end of the year. In the short term, attention should be paid to policy expectations such as the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. In the medium term, the bond market is expected to perform well. [4][37]

11 月制造业 PMI 回升；资金面宽松无虞，债市有所修复 【11 月制造业 PMI 回升】国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会 11 月 30 日发 布的数据显示，11 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点； 非制造业商务活动指数为 49.5%，比上月下降 0.6 个百分点。具体来看，11 月份，中型企业 PMI 为 48.9%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气度有所改善；小型企业 PMI 为 49.1%，比上月 上升 2.0 个百分点，为近 6 个月高点，景气水平显著回升。 【央行：继续坚持对虚拟货币的禁止性政策 持续打击虚拟货币相关非法金融活动】央行 11 月 28 日召开打击虚拟货币交易炒作工作协调机制会议。会议要求，各单位要坚持以习近平新时 代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，把防控风险作 为金融工作的永恒主题，继续坚持对虚拟货币的禁止性政策，持续打击虚拟货币相关非法金融 活动。各单位要深化协同配合，完善监管政策和法律依据，聚焦信息流、资金流等重点环节， 加强信息共享，进一步提升监测能力，严厉打击违法犯罪活动，保 ...