1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "interval oscillation" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot market was sluggish with a double - weak supply - demand situation. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work at coal mines may be faster than that of downstream steel mills, so the supply side may be stronger than the demand side. Investors are advised to pay attention to post - Spring Festival macro policies and coal import changes and control risks by holding light or no positions during the festival [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the daytime session opening; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1,664.0 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the daytime session opening. In last night's session, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,121.0 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the daytime session closing, and the coke main contract closed at 1,665.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the daytime session closing [1] 3.2 Important Information - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year; PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and fell 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 794.06 million tons, a weekly decrease of 25.84 million tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 1,442.73 million tons, a weekly increase of 104.98 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 689.08 million tons, a 9.4% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of February 11, the cumulative coal storage at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 6.0448 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.39%, and the coal import volume exceeded 6 billion tons 23 days earlier than in 2025 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Before the Spring Festival, the domestic coking coal supply and demand were in a double - weak pattern. After the Spring Festival, coal mines may resume work faster than downstream steel mills, and the supply side may be stronger than the demand side. Attention should be paid to post - Spring Festival macro policies and coal import changes [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold light or no positions during the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the resumption of work rhythm of steel mills [1]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of 0.8%[6] - The CPI month-on-month remained flat at 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[6] - The decline in CPI is attributed to both base effects and weak month-on-month momentum[6] - Core inflation remains the main contributor, with clothing, services, and medical care showing positive growth, while food, housing, and transportation experienced negative growth[6][17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -1.9%[23] - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - The rise in PPI is driven by base effects and stronger month-on-month momentum, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector[23][32] - Non-ferrous metals continue to provide the main upward pressure on PPI, while other sectors like equipment and durable goods show slight improvements[32] Group 3: Price Transmission Issues - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by external factors, with limited transmission to downstream prices[35] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to lead to a significant rebound in CPI for February 2026, as historical trends suggest a month-on-month increase[35] - External geopolitical factors are expected to support PPI in the short term, but internal price transmission requires more demand-side policies and capacity clearing measures[35]

| 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF主力合约（2603） | | 4716.8 IH主力合约（2603） 3083.0 | +4.2↑ IF次主力合约（2602） -9.4↓ IH次主力合约（2602） | 4719.4 3082.8 | +3.2↑ -9.0↓ | | IC主力合约（2603） | | 8448.8 | +112.2↑ IC次主力合约（2602） | 8448.2 | +103.2↑ | | IM主力合约（2603） | | 8338.0 | +93.6↑ IM次主力合约（2602） | 8345.4 | +83.0↑ | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 期货盘面 | 1636.6 | +12.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 3728.8 | +102.6↑ | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | | -102.8 | -20.6↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 5365.4 | +114.6↑ | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | | 3626.0 | +82.0↑ ...

周三（2 月 11 日）大盘缩量震荡，走势分化。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 4131.99 点，上涨 0.09%；深成指 收于 14160.93 点，下跌 0.35%；科创 50 下跌 1.11%； 创业板指下跌 1.08%，万得全 A 成交额共 20010 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 1. 国务院办公厅印发《关于完善全国统一电力市场体 系的实施意见》 国内市场综述 缩量震荡 走势分化 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 13 个上涨，其中建 材、有色金属及石油石化涨幅居前，而通信、传媒及 国防军工则跌幅较大，概念方面，玻璃纤维、稀有金 属精选及钴矿等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指小幅收跌，IBM 跌超 6% 周三（2 月 11 日），美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指跌 0.13%，标普 500 指数基本持平，纳指跌 0.16%。IBM 跌超 6%，赛富时跌逾 4%，领跌道指。万得美国科技七 巨头指数跌 0.57%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌 0.65%。 新闻精要 2. 长征十号与梦舟飞船首次飞行试验任务成功 3. 20.5 亿元"新春礼包"将在春节期间惠及消费者 4. 国家统计局：1 月份 CPI 环比上涨 ...

Group 1 - Energy and raw material prices are experiencing a phase of decline, with January PPI decreasing by 1.4% month-on-month, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The prices in the oil and gas extraction industry fell by 16.7%, while the prices in the oil, coal, and other fuel processing industries dropped by 11.5% [2][11] - The overall energy-related industries are in a deep negative growth zone, significantly dragging down the PPI. Although some non-energy sectors, such as non-ferrous metals and electronics manufacturing, are seeing price recoveries, the high weight and large declines in the energy sector continue to be a major factor in the year-on-year negative PPI for January [2][11] - The January CPI year-on-year growth rate decreased to 0.2%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a high base from last year's Spring Festival and current weak food prices. The core CPI year-on-year growth rate recorded 0.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3][4] Group 2 - The CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 0.2%, with food prices turning from growth to a decline of -0.7%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points. The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits increased by 6.9% and 3.2%, respectively, while pork and egg prices decreased by 13.7% and 10.6% [4][7] - Non-food prices saw a year-on-year growth rate decrease of 0.4 percentage points to 0.4%. Energy prices fell by 5% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decline, with gasoline prices down by 11.4% [4][7] - The January PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to 1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of narrowing. The prices of production materials recorded a year-on-year growth rate of -1.3%, while living materials saw a decline of -1.7% [11][14]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in year-on-year growth due to the timing of the Spring Festival [1] - The food item saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, down 1.8 percentage points, while pork prices continued to be under pressure with a year-on-year drop of 13.7% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but month-on-month, it reached a six-month high of 0.3% [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January, the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2] - Key industries such as cement and photovoltaic equipment saw price increases, with cement rising by 0.1% and photovoltaic equipment by 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal industry surged, with mining and processing prices increasing by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - The CPI for February is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially reaching a new high since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand [3] - The PPI is anticipated to turn positive in the second quarter of this year, reflecting improvements in industrial price environments and the gradual recovery of economic momentum [3] - Current policies are focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting reasonable price recovery, which is expected to support the overall economic environment [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The impact of the Spring Festival on CPI was significant, with food prices contributing a decrease of approximately 0.11 percentage points[1] - Core CPI growth narrowed by 0.4 percentage points to 0.8% compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in January 2026, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[1] - PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The rise in international non-ferrous metal prices contributed 0.34 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI increase[1]

比系大学国民经济研究中心 春节错位叠加供给充足，CPI 增速小幅下降 CPI、PPI 点评报告 宏观经济研究课题组 | | 2026 年 | 北大国民经 | Wind 市 | | 上年同 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1月值 | 济研究中心 | 场预测 | 上期值 | 期值 | | | | 预测值 | 均值 | | | | CPI 同比 (%) | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.44 | 0.8 | 0.5 | | PPI 同比 (%) | -1.4 | -1.0 | -1.45 | -1.9 | -2.3 | 要点 ● 春节错位叠加科技助农,CPI 增速小幅下行 课题组成员: 蔡含篇 陈丽娜 董希勇 李文博 联系人: 蔡含篇 联系方式: 010-62767607 gmjjyj@pku.edu.cn A0101-20260211 北京大学国民经济研究中心 扫描二维码或发邮件订阅 第一时间阅读本中心报告 蔡含篇 学术指导: 刘伟 组长:苏剑 ● 供需矛盾或有缓解,PPI降幅进一步收窄 ● 资源争夺叠加供需不匹配问题缓解,2026 年价格增 速或有上行 系大 ...

1.国家统计局公布数据显示，1月份，我国CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，连续 4个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，同比则下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.5个百分点。此次发布的CPI和PPI数据以2025 年为基期，为本次基期轮换后的首次数据发布。国家统计局指出，本次基期轮换对CPI和PPI各月同比指数的影响平均约为0.06 和0.08个百分点，总体较小。 早盘速递 2026/2/12 热点资讯 2.美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，远超市场预期的7万人，前值小幅下修至4.8万人。失业率录得4.3%，创2025年8月 以来新低；时薪环比增长0.4%，超预期。交易员将美联储降息押注从6月推迟至7月。 3.中国汽车工业协会发布数据显示，1月份，我国汽车产销分别完成245万辆和234.6万辆，同比分别增长0.01%、下降3.2%。其 中，新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比分别增长2.5%和0.1%。新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，出口30.2万 辆，同比增长1倍。 4.美国总统特朗普在白宫与到访的以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行闭门会 ...

Group 1: CPI Data Overview - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has decreased due to the high base effect from the previous year's Spring Festival and a significant drop in energy prices, which fell by 5.0% [2][3] - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% is the highest in the past six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [4] Group 2: PPI Data Overview - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 1.4%, but the decline has narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [9] - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal mining and smelting saw significant price increases, with non-ferrous metal mining prices up by 22.7% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Price Influences and Trends - The increase in PPI is attributed to the ongoing construction of a unified national market, rising demand, and external factors affecting prices in the non-ferrous metal and petroleum sectors [7][8] - The prices of essential consumer goods remained stable before the Spring Festival, with food prices holding steady and certain categories like fresh vegetables and grains experiencing slight declines [2][4] - The adjustment of the CPI basket to reflect changes in consumer behavior, such as the increased purchase of new energy vehicles, is aimed at improving the accuracy of price indices [5][6]