[Table_Title] 否极泰来 [Table_Summary] ►市场债基久期或普遍回到相对安全的位置 不过部分投资者仍担忧，若商品价格持续上涨，拉动 PPI 等通胀指标 显著回升，是否会进一步加剧债市调整？对此，我们倾向于可以对标 2021 年的债市行情。在 PPI同比高位的背景下，2021 年 7 月 7 日国常会 上超预期提及降准。并且在中下游企业难承高价的背景下，监管政策介入 要求煤价回归合理区间，脱离经济基本面的商品市场泡沫破灭。 ►债市或已扛过最难时刻 综合资金面、赎回压力、风险偏好，债市可能已经扛过了最难的时候。 与此同时，中美谈判和 7 月政治局会议的不确定性都将月底陆续落地，模糊 不清的时候最有利于风险偏好抬升，而未知变量逐渐清晰的时候，风险偏好 或短期降温，股市在高位，可能也有回调压力。 接下来，资金面在央行呵护及月初季节性宽松的带动下，或更容易修 复，调整之后有性价比的票息品种可能受益。而市场风险偏好，或者说股市 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 27 日 资金利率抬升、风险偏好转强、赎回规模放大，"三座大山"成为过去 一周债市大幅调整的 ...

Profit Trends - In June, industrial enterprises' profits declined by 4.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from May's 9% drop, primarily driven by a significant rebound in automotive profits[1] - Excluding the automotive sector, June's industrial profits fell by 9.1%, worsening from May's -7.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in Q2 dropped to -3.7%, down from 0.8% in Q1, indicating the impact of tariff policies on profits and orders[1] Price and Revenue Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June also showed a decline of 3.6%, compared to May's -3.3%[1] - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth slowed to 1.7% in Q2 from 3.4% in Q1, with June's revenue growth slightly improving to 1.6% from May's 0.8%[1] Sector Performance - Upstream industries saw a profit decline of 36.3% year-on-year in Q2, with coal mining profits worsening from -56.8% in May to -63% in June, contributing approximately 5.2 percentage points to the overall profit decline[3] - In contrast, oil and gas extraction and black metal mining showed recovery, with profits improving from -23.8% and -46.2% in May to -17% and 14.9% in June, respectively[3] Ownership Structure - In June, profits for state-owned and foreign enterprises improved, with state-owned enterprises rising from -18.1% in May to -8.3%, and foreign enterprises increasing from -7.3% to 11%[5] - Private enterprises, however, saw a decline in profit growth from 0.8% in May to -4.9% in June[5] Economic Outlook - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to support prices and profits in certain sectors in the second half of the year, although uncertainties remain regarding exports due to tariff disruptions[2] - The real estate cycle continues to show weakness, with property sales in major cities declining by 20% year-on-year in July, worsening from an 8.4% drop in June[3]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月27日 宏观经济宏观周报 本周高频指标加速回升，投资和房地产表现较优 主要结论：高频指标加速回升，投资和房地产表现较优。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 25 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 维持正值， 指数 B 继续回升。从分项来看，本周房地产、投资领域景气有所回升，消费 领域景气有所回落，本周房地产、投资领域表现相对较优。从季节性比较来 看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.3，表现优于历史平均水平，指向国内经济 增长动能环比加速上行。 基于国信高频宏观扩散指数对资产价格进行预测，显示当前国内利率偏低， 上证综合指数偏高，从均值回归的角度看，预计下周（2025 年 8 月 2 日所在 周）十年期国债利率将上行，上证综合指数将下行。 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 相关研究报告 《政府债周报-国债净融资边际放缓》 ——2025-07-25 周度价格高频跟踪方面： （1）本周食品、非食品价格下跌。预计 7 月 CPI 食品价格环比约为 0.5%， 非食品价格环比约为 0.5%，整体 CPI 环比约为 0.5%，CPI 同比持平上月的 0.1%。 （2）6 月上旬流通 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while it decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024, indicating a persistent low growth due to insufficient consumer demand [2][9] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, up 0.1 percentage points from May, reflecting a gradual recovery in consumer demand [2][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [6][9] - The PPI for the first half of 2025 decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, down 0.7 percentage points from the same period in 2024, influenced by high base effects and external pressures [6][7] - The decline in industrial product prices is attributed to insufficient demand, exacerbated by external environmental pressures and domestic economic structural adjustments [6][7][9] Group 3: Food and Non-Food Prices - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in June, with a notable decline in pork prices due to high base effects from the previous year, while other food prices showed an upward trend [3][4] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery but still remaining in a low growth range, primarily due to oversupply in the market [4][5] - Service prices saw the largest year-on-year increase of 8.1%, reflecting a diverse performance across different non-food categories [5][9]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core price level is gradually recovering, with financial support for the real economy increasing, indicating a gradual accumulation of internal economic momentum under policy support [1] - In June 2025, the CPI rose from -0.1% to 0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -3.3% to -3.6% [1] - The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.5% to 49.7%, showing slight improvement in manufacturing activity [1] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The core CPI growth has been continuously recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7% in June, the highest in nearly 14 months [4] - Factors contributing to the core CPI recovery include rising gold prices, the "old-for-new" policy supporting durable goods prices, and a moderate rebound in service prices [4] Group 3: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year in June, with the decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [7] - The decrease in PPI is attributed to slower construction in real estate and infrastructure, as well as an oversupply of industrial raw materials [7] Group 4: PMI Insights - The PMI for June was reported at 49.7%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating seasonal recovery [10] - Among 21 surveyed industries, 11 are in the expansion zone, reflecting improved manufacturing sentiment [10] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in June showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, down from 3.7% in May, with real estate development investment declining by 12.9% [13] - The decline in real estate sales and investment growth is contributing to a negative feedback loop with falling housing prices and PPI [13] Group 6: Credit Performance - New RMB loans in June amounted to 22.4 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous month's 6.2 billion yuan [16] - The strong credit performance is driven by multiple factors, including seasonal increases in lending and effective financial policies [16] Group 7: M2 Growth - M2 growth accelerated to 8.3% in June, the highest in nearly 15 months, with a notable narrowing of the M1-M2 gap [20] - The increase in M2 and M1 indicates improved financial support for the real economy, although M1 growth remains relatively low [20]

韩国6月PPI同比上升0.5%。 ...

1. 市场概述与行情回顾 1.1 当日市场总体表现 今日（20250717）沪镍主力合约 2508 在早盘开盘报 119700 元/吨，盘中最高报 120170 元/吨，最低报 119270 元/吨，最终收盘 报 119880 元/吨，下跌 720 元/吨，跌幅 0.6%。 图 1：沪镇主力合约收盘价走势 研究品种: 沪镍 成文日期：2025/07/17 研究员 曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 报告周期: 日度 镇期货目报 文化来源：文华财经 研究热线：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.2 期货行情数据 | 表 1：沪镍期货行情表 20250717 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨 幅% | 成交 量 | 振幅% | 持仓 를 | 日増仓 | | 沪镇 2508 | 11988 0 | -720 | -0.60 | 85829 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a turnaround from the previous month’s decline of 0.1%[3] - The core CPI for the first half of the year rose by 0.5% month-on-month, indicating a reduction in downward price pressure[6] - The year-on-year CPI in June ended a four-month streak of negative growth, primarily due to a significant narrowing of the fresh vegetable price decline from -8.3% to -0.4%[22] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, continuing its negative growth trend, with a cumulative decline of 1.9% for the first half of the year[32] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 3.6%, with the decline accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to May[36] - Contributing factors to the PPI decline include seasonal factors and weak external demand, particularly affecting industries like steel and cement[32] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The GDP deflator index is expected to further decline to around -1.4% in Q3, with a potential recovery to -0.9% in Q4 as PPI declines narrow and CPI rebounds[4] - The overall economic stability is contingent on policy support, with the need for stimulus measures to boost internal demand still evident[4] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings and disturbances in overseas markets, which could impact economic recovery[5]

变局中的中国经济：二季度经济数据，从城市工作会议和 反内卷政策看地产和通胀 20250720 摘要 2025 年上半年建筑业增速转负至-0.6%，拖累第二产业 GDP 增长，房 地产投资同比下降 12.9%，基建投资同比下降 4.6%。房地产市场核心 城市新房销售较好，但次新房和老破大面临估值压力，老破小被视为深 度价值股。 中央城市工作会议强调城市更新，摒弃依赖债务驱动和土地财政的模式， 聚焦智能、智慧、韧性和宜居的城市发展，从棚户区改造转向注重内涵 发展的城市更新模式。 2025 年上半年基建投资下滑，6 月单月同比下降 4.6%，主要归因于专 项债资金用途变化，用于新开工项目建设的比例下降，化债占比上升， 部分地方政府面临公开债偿还压力。 雅砻江水电工程是中国"十五五"规划中的重要投资项目，预计耗资 1.2 万亿元人民币，对未来数年的中国基建投资形成持续稳定保障，同 时具有重要的地缘政治意义。 Q&A 2025 年第二季度中国 GDP 增速如何？其背后的结构性因素有哪些？ 2025 年第二季度中国 GDP 增速为 5.2%，基本符合市场预期。然而，尽管 6 月份工业增加值表现良好，二季度整体工业增加值也 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月20日 宏观经济宏观周报 高频指标逆季节性回升，消费维持较优表现 主要结论：高频指标逆季节性回升，消费维持较优表现。 经济增长方面，本周(7 月 18 日所在周）国信高频宏观扩散指数 A 由负转正， 指数 B 有所回升。从分项来看，本周消费领域景气有所回升，房地产领域景 气基本保持不变，投资领域景气有所回落，本周消费领域表现相对较优。从 季节性比较来看，本周指数 B 标准化后上升 0.14，表现优于历史平均水平， 指向国内经济增长动能有所改善。 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：田地 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-22940456 | 0755-81982035 | | | lizn@guosen.com.cn | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | | | S0980516060001 | S0980524090003 | | | 基础数据 | | | | 固定资产投资累计同比 | | 2.80 | | 社零总额当月同比 | | 4.80 | | 出口当月同比 | | 5.80 | | M2 | | 8.30 | | 市场走 ...