Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].

Core Insights - The report highlights steady growth in urban and rural residents' disposable income in Sichuan province, with urban residents earning an average of 37,338 yuan and rural residents earning 16,741 yuan, reflecting nominal growth rates of 4.5% and 5.5% respectively [2][7] - The consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan has shown a slight decline of 0.4% year-on-year, influenced by various factors including slow domestic consumption recovery and price competition in certain industries [3][4] - The report indicates a structural decline in prices, with service prices rising by 0.3% while consumer goods prices fell by 0.8%, highlighting a shift in consumer spending patterns [4][5] Income and Consumption - The average disposable income for residents in Sichuan reached 27,046 yuan, with a nominal increase of 5.3% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.7% after adjusting for inflation [7] - Urban residents' average consumption expenditure was 23,690 yuan, growing by 4.7%, while rural residents' expenditure was 13,902 yuan, with a higher growth rate of 5.6% [7] - The share of service consumption in total spending has increased, with per capita service expenditure rising to 8,608 yuan, a growth of 6.1% [6][7] Price Trends - The report notes that prices for eight categories of goods and services experienced five increases and three decreases, with healthcare prices rising by 0.6% and food prices declining by 1.0% [2][4] - The core CPI in Sichuan showed a positive trend, increasing by 0.4% year-on-year, with a notable rise in September reaching a high of 0.6% [5] - Industrial producer prices (PPI) decreased by 2.8%, but there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, particularly in high-tech industries, which have seen price increases [5][6] Consumer Behavior - The report emphasizes that rural consumption growth outpaced urban consumption, indicating a significant potential in rural markets [7] - The increase in consumer spending is attributed to various government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption, including policies for replacing old consumer goods [6][7] - Notably, spending on transportation and communication services saw substantial growth, with increases of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively [6]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a year-on-year decline of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a mixed price trend in the consumer market [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth and the first time in 19 months that it returned to a 1% increase [2][3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting a potential stabilization in industrial prices [2][3] CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI's performance was affected by significant declines in food and energy prices, while service prices increased by 0.6%, indicating a stable upward trend in service costs [4][7] - Core CPI's recovery is primarily driven by rising prices in core goods, with industrial consumer goods prices increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [4][5] - The "old-for-new" policy has stimulated demand for household appliances and communication tools, contributing to price increases in these categories [5][6] Sector-Specific Price Trends - Certain sectors, such as coal mining and black metal smelting, have seen price increases, reflecting the impact of industry restructuring and improved market competition [7][9] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry surged by 42.1% and 33.6% respectively, driven by rising international gold prices [4][5] - The manufacturing prices for high-quality consumer goods, such as art and ceremonial products, have also shown significant increases, indicating a shift towards quality consumption [7][9] Future Price Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI may stabilize in October, with an annual average around 0%, while PPI is expected to fluctuate at low levels [9][10] - The ongoing implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices is crucial for maintaining economic stability [10] - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and structural upgrades in industries are expected to support a gradual recovery in price levels [8][9]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 内外动能或进入"转换期" ——9 月经济数据解读 ❖ 9 月数据解读：投资弱化、消费放缓，生产强势再回归 1、月度 GDP：9 月工业生产强势回归，带动二产增速边际上行，9 月 GDP 约 为 5.0%左右。其中三产增速平稳，二产在工业增速、基建投资回暖之下表现 改善，是 9 月 GDP 回升的主要动力。 2、基建：政策效果初显，传统基建边际回暖。单月看，不含电力基建投资 9 月同比-4.6%、全口径基建同比-8.0%，一升一降。9 月下旬，多地新型政策性 金融工具资金完成首笔投放，投资施工等高频指标开始改善，指向基建投资景 气或有上行，10 月政策效果释放或更为充分。 2、房地产：投资降幅扩大，销售持稳。1-9 月地产投资累计同比增速-13.9%， 单月同比-21.3%，继续下滑 1.8pct。住宅销售面积同比-11.4%、较上月扩大- 1.7pct。"金九"行情弱于去年同期表现，总量政策维持定力之下，四季度高基 数扰动或进一步放大。 3、制造业投资：9 月降幅继续走扩。9 月制造业投资同比-1.9%，降幅扩大 0.6pct， 1-9 月累计同比+4.0%。国 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating a stable economic growth rate in Q3 and a likelihood of achieving the annual growth target [1][5] - The overall economic environment shows a structural impact from changes in supply and demand, with a need for objective recognition of slowing investment growth and the necessity to boost consumption [1][5] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in the growth rate of RMB loans [1][2] - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in corporate investment expansion [1][2] Household Sector - In September, short-term loans for households increased by 142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 250 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [2] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme introduced in August is still pending, and its stimulating effect on short-term loans requires time to materialize [2] Corporate Sector - In September, corporate sector loans totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans at 710 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 910 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan [2] - The investment willingness of enterprises remains subdued, with insufficient new orders impacting investment expansion [2][6] Government Sector - In September, net financing from government bonds was 1.1886 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in bond issuance compared to the previous high base [2] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is on structural adjustments rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [2][8] Inflation and Prices - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in core CPI [3][4] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices in categories such as old-for-new exchanges and gold jewelry [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and manufacturing investment increasing by 4% [5][6] - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with funds moving towards new technologies and industries [5][6] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down in Q3, with retail sales growth decelerating compared to earlier in the year [7] - The effectiveness of fiscal policies aimed at boosting personal consumption loans and the financial market's ability to enhance residents' income will be crucial for future consumption growth [7] Foreign Trade - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 8.3% growth in September, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade despite global uncertainties [7] - Factors contributing to export resilience include preemptive actions by foreign trade enterprises and strong growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar products [7] Future Outlook - The completion of the annual growth target is highly probable, with Q4 expected to focus on stability and effective use of existing policies [8] - Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the year is anticipated to support necessary growth rates, while monetary policy will concentrate on structural tools [8]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in September increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - The industrial capacity utilization rate for large-scale enterprises in Q3 was 74.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [12] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters amounted to 36,587 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [6] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 874.585 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.5% [6] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in the first three quarters was 65.85 million square meters, down by 5.5% year-on-year [11] Trade and Prices - The total import and export value for the first three quarters was 3,360.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first three quarters decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the first three quarters fell by 2.8% year-on-year [8] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - The per capita disposable income for residents in the first three quarters was 32,590 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1% [12] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down by 13.9% year-on-year [10][11] - In September, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [12] Economic Outlook - The economic structure remains stable, with ongoing momentum for growth and resilience, indicating a solid foundation for sustained healthy development [13] - Future efforts will focus on implementing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing market vitality to boost growth expectations [13]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains in the contraction zone, indicating stable economic fundamentals[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has rebounded, returning to the expansion zone, driven by strong holiday consumption in accommodation, dining, transportation, and cultural tourism[1] - The Investment Confidence Index has slightly increased but is still in the contraction zone, with manufacturing investment supported by structural upgrades and technology innovation[1] Inflation and Prices - In September 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, and fruits, while service prices fell by 0.3% due to holiday effects[2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices[2] - The core CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% in 19 months, indicating a continued recovery in domestic demand[2] Industrial Prices - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September but decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Upstream industry prices stabilized, with notable improvements in coal processing (+3.8%) and black metal smelting (+0.2%) sectors[3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was mitigated by the advancement of a unified national market and structural support from high-end and green manufacturing developments[3] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for gradual cuts while others suggest a more aggressive approach[7] - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which could lead to a government shutdown, affecting federal operations and potentially dragging down Q4 economic performance[8]

| 服务业 | | 5.4% | | --- | --- | --- | | 増加值 | | | | 固定资产 | | -0.5% | | 投资(不含农户) | | | | 房地产 | | -13.9% | | 开发投资 | | | | 新建商品房 | | -5.5% | | 销售面积 | | | | 社会消费品 | 3.0% | 4.5% | | 零售总额 | | | | 货物进出口 | 8.0% | 4.0% | | 总额 | | | | 全国城镇调查 | 5.2% | 5.2% | | 失业率 | (绝对值) | (平均值) | | · CPI | -0.3% | -0.1% | | · PPI | -2.3% | -2.8% | | 居民人均 0 | | 5.2% | | 可支配收入 | | | 10月20日上午，国家统计局发布前三季度国民经济运行数据： GDP：前三季度国内生产总值1015036亿元，同比增长5.2%； 规模以上工业增加值：9月同比实际增长6.5%，环比增长0.64%；1 - 9月同比增长6.2%； 社会消费品零售总额：9月总额41971亿元，同比增长3.0%；1 - 9月增长4.5 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Trends - Consumer prices remained stable in the first three quarters, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the first half and the first quarter [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has shown a continuous recovery since March, rising to 1% in September, the highest in nearly 19 months [4] - Food prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.8%, with fresh vegetable prices averaging a drop of 7.9% and pork prices shifting from an increase of 3.8% in the first half to a decrease of 2.9% in the first three quarters [2] Group 2: Energy Price Trends - Energy prices decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with gasoline prices dropping by 7.3% due to international oil price fluctuations [3] Group 3: Producer Price Trends - PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [5] - The domestic market's competitive order has improved, leading to a recovery in prices for certain industries, such as coal processing and black metal smelting, which saw a reduction in year-on-year price declines [5] Group 4: External Influences on Prices - International oil prices have generally trended downward, impacting domestic oil-related industry prices, with a 9.9% decline in the oil and gas extraction industry [6] - Conversely, international non-ferrous metal prices have risen, leading to a 5.6% year-on-year increase in domestic non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industries [6] Group 5: High-Tech Industry Developments - The development of high-tech industries and effective macro policies have driven price increases in certain sectors, such as integrated circuit packaging and testing, which rose by 3.0% year-on-year [7] - Upgraded consumer demand has also contributed to price increases in sectors like arts and crafts manufacturing, which saw a 12.7% rise [7]

Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in September, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - Food prices rose by 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI increase, while clothing prices increased by 0.8% due to seasonal changes [1] - The producer price index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in CPI of 0.3% was primarily influenced by a negative carryover effect of approximately 0.8 percentage points, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [2] - The PPI's month-on-month stability is attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries, with coal processing prices rising by 3.8% and coal mining prices increasing by 2.5% [2][3] - The narrowing year-on-year decline in PPI is a result of ongoing macroeconomic policy effects, with some industries experiencing positive price changes due to market competition and structural upgrades [3]