Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cement prices in the eastern region, which is anticipated to support profit growth due to improved pricing dynamics [19][24] - The company has maintained a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of -22% as of the end of 2024, indicating robust operational resilience [4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 91,030 million in 2024, with a decline of 35.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 7,696 million, down 26.2% year-on-year [7] - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 1.88, with a gradual increase to RMB 2.29 by 2027 [5] Market Dynamics - The eastern and central regions account for over 50% of the company's main revenue, and the recovery in these areas is crucial for profit generation [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in cement prices, with a 15% year-on-year rise in the price of PO42.5 bulk cement in the eastern region as of March 28, 2025 [24] Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced capital expenditures, with planned reductions of 18% and 20% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a further 23% reduction planned for 2025 [4] - The company has achieved a comprehensive cost of RMB 187.25 per ton for self-produced cement clinker, which is lower than its domestic peers [61] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas production capacity, with 11 operational clinker production lines generating approximately 16.5 million tons annually, representing 6% of its total global capacity [3][39] - The overseas business has shown stable profitability, with a significant increase in profit from RMB 1.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024 [42] Aggregate Business Development - The company has increased its aggregate production capacity to 163 million tons by the end of 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [48] - The aggregate business has generated revenue of RMB 4.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [51]

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes that expanding consumer demand is more effective than capacity reduction policies in addressing low inflation, as service prices have dropped to historical lows, which is the core issue of the current price cycle [1][10] - If consumption policies are strengthened, service prices could rise by 2 percentage points, leading to a GDP deflator increase from -0.7% to +0.39%, which would be more beneficial than the effects of capacity reduction [1][10] - Historical comparisons indicate that the current price pressure is primarily demand-driven, with the second industry contributing only 48% to the current low inflation, significantly lower than previous years [1][10] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the introduction of buying and selling government bonds as a new monetary policy tool in China, aimed at managing interest rate risks amid a declining yield environment [2][12] - It highlights that the People's Bank of China has primarily focused on buying government bonds to release liquidity, given the current low inflation environment [2][12] - The effectiveness of these operations will depend on the central bank's ability to provide clear forward guidance to shape market expectations [2][12] Company Analysis: Zhengfan Convertible Bonds - Zhengfan Convertible Bonds are expected to list at a price between 115.63 and 128.82 yuan, with a subscription rate of 0.0048% [3][15] - The bonds have a solid debt protection feature, with a conversion premium rate of approximately 25% anticipated on the first day of listing [3][15] - Zhengfan Technology has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.10% from 2019 to 2023, and a revenue of 38.35 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 41.78% year-on-year increase [3][15] Company Analysis: Kelun-Botai - Kelun-Botai's revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.3 billion yuan, a 25.5% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 12.74 billion yuan, up 67.8% [5][16] - The company is expected to see rapid growth in multiple products as they commercialize, with significant clinical data supporting their efficacy [5][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 17.8 billion and 35.6 billion yuan, respectively, with an expected revenue of 58.9 billion yuan in 2027 [5][16] Company Analysis: China National Materials - China National Materials reported a total revenue of 461.27 billion yuan for 2024, a 0.7% increase, and a net profit of 29.83 billion yuan, up 2.3% [6][19] - The company has shown resilience in its Q4 performance, with overseas engineering and operation maintenance businesses performing well [6][19] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.5 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6][19]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **non-ferrous metals industry**, with a focus on the **electrolytic aluminum** and **steel** sectors [1][2][11]. Key Points on Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to perform well, with a confirmed inventory turning point. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars have decreased, with aluminum ingots down by 0.2 thousand tons and aluminum bars down by 0.86 thousand tons [3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Aluminum prices have started to rise, reaching 2,835 RMB/ton, marking a 1% increase this week. This aligns with expectations of improved demand [4]. - **Cost Improvements**: The cost structure for electrolytic aluminum is improving due to declining alumina prices and increased upstream supply. Additionally, lower coal prices are reducing electricity costs for self-supplied power plants, benefiting profitability [5][6]. - **Profitability**: Companies in the Xinjiang region, such as Shenhuo, have seen significant improvements in profitability, with net profit per ton of aluminum around 4,000 RMB. However, these improvements may reflect in financial statements with a delay of one to two months [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall market logic for electrolytic aluminum is gradually being realized, with expectations for continued price increases driven by cost reductions, tightening supply, and improving demand [8]. Key Points on Steel Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The steel sector is experiencing a positive sentiment due to expectations of capacity reduction and improved demand from the real estate sector. The government has indicated a focus on reducing crude steel production [2][9]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The steel industry's profitability is expected to improve as coal and ore prices decline, providing a safety margin for the sector [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with strong cost control and good regional competitive positions, such as New Steel and Hualian Steel, are recommended for investment [9]. Key Points on Copper Market - **Supply and Demand**: The copper market is showing signs of a supply constraint due to a lack of new capacity in recent years. Current inventory levels are relatively healthy, and demand is expected to improve as the traditional consumption peak approaches [7][10]. - **Price Drivers**: Factors such as the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on copper imports and a declining U.S. dollar index are likely to support copper price increases [10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Metal Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the copper sector [10]. Additional Insights - The overall non-ferrous metals sector is gaining attention, with aluminum and steel showing sustained performance. The copper market is also beginning to show clearer turning points, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [11].

Economic Growth - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5%, indicating a need for increased policy efforts to achieve this goal[7] - The implied nominal GDP growth rate has been adjusted down to 4.9%, with a fiscal deficit of 5.66 trillion and a deficit rate of 4%[8] - In 2024, final consumption and capital formation contributed only 3.5 percentage points to GDP growth, highlighting weak domestic demand[7] Price Stability - The CPI target has been lowered from 3% to 2%, reflecting a shift in focus from preventing inflation to promoting price recovery[9] - This adjustment indicates a stronger emphasis on price stability within the macroeconomic policy framework[18] Fiscal Policy - The total incremental fiscal funds for this year are projected to reach 2.9 trillion, second only to the 3.6 trillion in 2020[25] - The combined fiscal measures (deficit, special bonds, and long-term bonds) amount to 11.86 trillion, an increase of 2.9 trillion compared to last year[25] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is expected to be the main theme for 2025, with potential for timely adjustments in interest rates and reserve requirements[31] - Structural monetary policies will focus on supporting real estate, stock markets, and private enterprises[32] Consumption Promotion - Three key areas for consumption policy include subsidies for replacing old products, income support through social security, and improving the consumption environment[33] - The central government has allocated approximately 3,800 billion for consumption incentives, doubling last year's funding[26] Real Estate Policy - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures such as lifting purchase restrictions and adjusting mortgage rates[34] - Attention will be given to the progress of land and housing stock acquisition through special bonds[36] Industrial Policy - Discussions on potential new rounds of capacity reduction are ongoing, but any measures are expected to be moderate and market-driven[37] - The focus will be on addressing structural issues in industries facing overcapacity, particularly in emerging sectors[38] Technology and Private Enterprises - The government emphasizes the need for institutional support for private enterprises in national technology innovation projects[45] - There is a stronger commitment to resolving issues related to overdue payments to private enterprises, with funding sources identified for this purpose[45] Energy Consumption - The energy consumption target has been raised to a reduction of 3% per unit of GDP, indicating stricter energy policies moving forward[46] - The actual reduction achieved last year was 3.8%, exceeding the previous target of 2.5%[46] Capital Market - The report highlights the need for comprehensive reforms in the capital market to enhance the balance between investment and financing functions[51] - There is a focus on increasing the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market to stabilize investor confidence[51]