来源：汇金网 周一亚洲时段，黄金价格（XAU/USD）一度升至约4600美元附近，刷新历史最高纪录。在全球不确定性加剧的背 景下，避险资金持续流入黄金市场，同时市场对美国年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支撑。 地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事选项，此前伊 朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力。 与此同时，欧洲地缘安全议题同样引发市场关注。英国和德国正讨论在格陵兰地区加强军事存在，以显示其对北 极安全问题的重视。 多重地缘政治变量交织，使全球市场避险情绪维持在高位。美联储政策预期提供额外支撑：美国最新公布的就业 数据表现分化，也进一步增强了市场对美联储未来降息的押注。 数据显示，12月非农就业人数仅增加5万人，低于市场预期；失业率则小幅回落至4.4%。就业增长放缓，使投资 者认为货币政策存在进一步转向宽松的空间。在低利率环境下，持有无息资产的机会成本下降，这通常对黄金价 格构成利好。 市场接下来将重点关注即将公布的美国CPI通胀数据，以判断通胀回落是否为降息创造更明确的条件。 从日线结构来看，黄金价 ...

Group 1 - China Hong Kong (03788) shares rose over 11%, reaching a price of 4.28 HKD with a trading volume of 7.5463 million HKD [1] - The company announced the completion of the first phase of the pre-feasibility study for the Cygnet Gold Mine project and an update on the final feasibility study for the Mt Bundy Gold Mine project, resulting in a 53.1% increase in combined ore reserves to 2.62 million ounces [1] - The JORC gold resource increased to 5.54 million ounces following an independent assessment by SRK China [1] Group 2 - Spot gold and COMEX gold futures both surpassed 4600 USD per ounce, setting a new historical high, driven by rising geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The poor non-farm payroll data from the previous Friday has heightened market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1]

来源：中国能源网 信达证券近日发布石油加工行业原油周报：截至2026年01月09日当周，布伦特原油期货结算价为63.34 美元/桶，较上周上升2.59美元/桶（+4.26%）；WTI原油期货结算价为59.12美元/桶，较上周上升1.80美 元/桶（+3.14%）；俄罗斯Urals原油现货价为65.49美元/桶，与上周持平；俄罗斯ESPO原油现货价为 49.90美元/桶，较上周上升1.07美元/桶（+2.19%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期内容提要： 【原油价格】截至2026年01月09日当周，布伦特原油期货结算价为63.34美元/桶，较上周上升2.59美元/ 桶（+4.26%）；WTI原油期货结算价为59.12美元/桶，较上周上升1.80美元/桶（+3.14%）；俄罗斯Urals 原油现货价为65.49美元/桶，与上周持平；俄罗斯ESPO原油现货价为49.90美元/桶，较上周上升1.07美 元/桶（+2.19%）。 【海上钻井服务】截至2026年1月5日当周，全球海上自升式钻井平台数量为376座，较上周持平；全球 海上浮式钻井平台数量为129座，较上周持平。 【美国原油供给】截至2026年01月02日当周， ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国罕王(03788)涨超11%，截至发稿，涨11.46%，报4.28港元，成交额754.63万港 元。 值得一提的是，周一早盘，现货黄金及COMEX黄金期货盘中均突破4600美元/盎司，再创历史新高。据 悉，这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了 市场对美联储降息的预期。 消息面上，中国罕王发布公告称，随着Cygnet金矿项目的第一阶段预可行性研究完成以及Mt Bundy金矿 项目的最终可行性研究更新，经SRK中国的独立专家依据上市规则进行评估，合并矿石储量增加了 53.1%，达到262万盎司，且JORC黄金资源量增至554万盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the surge in spot gold prices, which reached a historical high of $4601.38 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have risen significantly, breaking through key levels of $4400, $4500, and $4550, ultimately reaching $4601.38 per ounce [2]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at $4580.393 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.58% [2][3]. - The New York futures gold price also surpassed $4610 per ounce, currently reported at $4602.5, with a daily increase of 2.26% [3][4]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver prices have increased by 4%, reaching a high of $84 per ounce, marking a new historical peak [4][5]. - The latest report indicates spot silver at $83.527 per ounce, showing a rise of 4.72% [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Rising geopolitical risks associated with Iran and Venezuela have reignited market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. - The strong performance of gold, silver, and platinum at the beginning of the year reflects a combination of geopolitical hedging, financial flows, and structural investment themes [6]. Group 4: Central Bank Activities - In 2025, global central banks have increased their gold holdings multiple times to enhance portfolio diversity and stability, contributing to the surge in international gold prices [6]. - Conversely, the US dollar index has been in a continuous downward trend since the beginning of 2025, leading to a declining share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves [7].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘因素继续提升原油风险溢价 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、周度油价先跌后涨，整体重心呈现低位反弹。其中WTI 2月合约收盘至59.12美元/桶，周度涨幅 2.53%。布伦特3月合约收盘至63.34美元/桶，周度涨幅3.65%。SC2602周五夜盘以437.7元/桶收盘，主力 合约周中最低跌至411元/桶低位，随后反弹。整体来看油市情绪有一定的改善，但预计仍有反复。 2、当前从地缘方面来看，开年有冲突加剧的迹象。委内瑞拉，伊朗政权相继面临挑战，市场的避险情 绪再度升温。原油市场对于委内瑞拉事件的反应其实是纠结的，短期的风险都未能带动原油风险溢价的 提升。但下半周以来，伊朗问题加剧了原油市场风险的担忧。由于伊朗的特殊地理位置，加之其在中东 地区的重要角色，一旦与美国的冲突加剧，势必会引发地缘紧张情绪的升温，从而造成油价的剧烈波 动。更为重要的是，伊朗掌握着海湾地区石油的运输命脉，霍尔木兹海峡，一旦伊朗因受到威胁而封锁 该海峡，势必会斩断中东地区原油的对外输出的最大途径，并造成供应中断的风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and positive factors jointly drive up the prices of crude oil and silver; the fundamentals of coking coal are expected to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in prices; the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate in the short term; the prices of rebar and glass are expected to fluctuate; the short - term supply - demand game of live pigs continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range; the prices of asphalt and synthetic rubber have short - term support; the copper market is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern; the methanol and plastic markets are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; the long - term treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term; the precious metals strengthen due to the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment [2][4][5][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - As of January 9, the number of active drilling rigs in the US decreased by 3 from the previous week and 71 from the same period last year; the EIA predicts that the US crude oil daily output will drop from 13.6 million barrels in 2025 to about 13.5 million barrels in 2026; the deteriorating situation in Iran and geopolitical risks drive up the oil price, and it is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term [2] Silver - Trump cancels the second - wave military strike against Venezuela, and all US ships remain in place; he also plans to buy $200 billion in mortgage - backed securities. The superposition of risk - aversion and stimulus factors drives up the silver price, but excessive bullishness is not recommended [2] Coking Coal - The average national coke - making profit per ton is - 45 yuan/ton. The improvement of Mongolian coal imports and the upcoming Chinese New Year coal - mine holidays will relieve the supply pressure, and the demand is expected to improve, so the coking coal price has upward momentum [4] Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills is 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption is 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,100 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4] Rebar - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate is 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points; the steel - mill profitability rate is 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output is 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate [5] Live Pigs - As of January 9, the average slaughter weight of live pigs is 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg; the weekly slaughter operating rate is 35.37%, a decrease of 0.34%. The short - term supply - demand game continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a range [5] Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil spot basis is stable. The MPOB report will be released today. There is a game between the "positive policy expectations from Indonesia" and the "high inventory in Malaysia". Short - term participation is recommended [6] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean - meal spot price is stable with an upward trend. The willingness of oil mills and traders to support prices has increased, but the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing up prices is weak. The short - term 05 contract is expected to enter a shock - consolidation period, and short - term participation is recommended [6] Asphalt - In the first week of 2026, the comprehensive production - capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt manufacturers is 25.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 percentage points. The price has short - term support [7] Synthetic Rubber - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene - rubber output is 1.436 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 135,000 tons; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate as of January 8 is 79.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate of butadiene as of January 9 is 71.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.7%, and the butadiene port inventory is 41,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The price mainly fluctuates with the cost [8] Copper - The US non - farm payrolls data in December 2025 is lower than expected, and the employment market is still weak. The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term [9] Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,242 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton; the weekly production - capacity utilization rate is 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.01%; the methanol port inventory is 1.5372 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,710 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 10 yuan/ton; the weekly output is 301,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%; the production - enterprise inventory is 144,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [10][11] Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1,093 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 7 yuan/ton; the float - glass operating rate is 71.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 percentage points; the total inventory of sample float - glass enterprises is 55.551 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11] Long - term Treasury Bonds - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The inflation situation is not enough to disturb the monetary policy, and the bonds are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [12] Gold - The Jordanian military conducts air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, and the risk - aversion sentiment drives up the precious - metal price. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [12]

地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近4%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，首次升破4600美元大关，再创历史新高，新年迄今累涨约280美元。 原油市场同样反应剧烈，布伦特原油和WTI原油双双涨超1%。数据显示，布伦特原油在经历了上周四和周五近6%的跳涨后，目前正逼近每桶64美元关口， 创下自10月以来的最大两日涨幅；WTI原油价格则维持在60美元附近。 涨幅扩大至近5%，价格继续突破此前新高，最高触及84.02美元。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 ...

2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属月报 地缘政治风险升级，贵金属热度难降 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 18 | 图表 | 1 近 5 年 | | SHFE 金银价格走势 4 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图表 | 2 近 5 年 | | COMEX 金银价格走势 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美债利率走势变化 4 | | | 图表 | | | 3 金价与美元指数走势变化 5 | | | 图表 | 4 | | 金价与美 ...

1月12日早盘，贵金属集体拉升。截至发稿，现货黄金升至4592美元大关，涨幅1.86%再创历史新高；现货白银涨幅扩大至3.36%。现货铂金涨4.05%，突 破2360美元/盎司关口，最新报2360.4美元/盎司。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4592.767 | 83.787 | 1.86% | 6.36% | | 伦敦银现 | 83.131 | 3.367 | 4.22% | 16.14% | | COMEX黄金 | 4579.0d | 78.1 | 1.74% | 5.70% | | COMEX白银 | 81.900d | 2.559 | 3.23% | 15.38% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1030.4360 | 18.7985 | 1.86% | 6.21% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 18651.4110 | 755.5119 | 4.22% | 15.98% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2360.40 | 91.90 | 4 ...