Strategy - The article discusses the current bull market, emphasizing that it is not merely driven by liquidity and weak fundamentals, but rather the sustainability of this bull market is in question. It draws parallels with Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, highlighting the importance of large-scale fiscal stimulus as a necessary condition for the initiation of a bull market in a low-growth, low-interest-rate environment. The article suggests that if policies are more targeted and aligned with external industrial trends, the bull market could last longer. Key risks to watch include policy easing, external disturbances like the AI bubble, and internal debt exposure [5][8]. Industry - For 2026, the article recommends overweighting gold, increasing allocation to Chinese technology stocks, and underweighting commodities. It notes that both gold and global stocks have seen significant increases, and the key for 2026 will be whether the bull markets in gold and stocks can continue. The article summarizes the switching patterns of major asset classes and emphasizes the importance of identifying the peak of the bull market in Chinese stocks and gold. It identifies economic and policy signals as the most effective indicators for Chinese stocks, while gold peaks are more dependent on Federal Reserve policies [8][10]. Macroeconomy - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, leading AI companies in the US have significantly outperformed the overall market. Similarly, Chinese AI leaders have also shown strong performance in the Hong Kong market. Despite rapid earnings growth for these companies, the risk premium remains at a low level, indicating optimistic investor sentiment. The article discusses the ongoing debate about the potential bubble in AI-related asset prices, focusing on the relationship between asset prices, innovation, and macroeconomic factors [10][12]. Quantitative & ESG - The report analyzes the calendar effects in the A-share market, focusing on the performance of mainstream styles and their cyclical patterns. Key conclusions include that growth and small-cap styles are significantly influenced by the timing of earnings disclosures, with growth stocks attracting more attention during busy reporting periods. Additionally, high dividend announcements and record dates can temporarily affect the performance of dividend styles. Institutional investors exhibit seasonal risk preference changes, favoring growth styles mid-year and defensive strategies towards year-end [13][15]. Global Research - The global economy and markets have shown unexpected resilience in 2025, despite significant trade tensions. However, there is notable divergence across industries and regions. The article predicts that Japan's economic growth may continue to exceed potential GDP in 2026. Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, is expected to benefit from industrial expansion, upstream mining investments, and diversification of global supply chains [16][17].

Market Trend - The current market is in a bear market, marking the 46th day out of 364 days [1] - According to the "four-year cycle theory", Bitcoin price has peaked [1] Price Prediction - The peak of the bull market is predicted to be on 2025/10/06, with a Bitcoin price of $126,000 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market continues, but it is still a structural one. Investing in stock index futures may be more advantageous than stocks. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market due to the re - evaluation of physical resource values [50] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Index Review - **Driving Sectors of the Bull Market**: New energy, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and communication are the main drivers of the current bull market. Industries such as electronics, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals have made significant contributions to the index increase from April 10, 2025, to November 14, 2025 [6] - **Industry Performance Details**: Different industries show various performance indicators in terms of weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi - annual, and annual returns, as well as maximum drawdown, Sharpe ratio, and other metrics. For example, the comprehensive industry has high returns in multiple time - frames, while the beauty care industry has negative returns in the short - term [7] - **Index Valuation - Risk Premium Rate**: As of the latest trading day, the risk premium rates of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 6.5%, 5.2%, 1.2%, and 0.3% respectively. From a configuration perspective, large - cap indexes are more cost - effective than small - and medium - cap indexes [10] - **Index Valuation - 2026 Estimation**: Analysts' 2026 EPS estimates for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 10.6, 6.8, 1.8, and 1.1 respectively. For the ChiNext and STAR 50, the estimates are 7.6 and 4.7. The estimates show that analysts are pessimistic about the profit improvement of large - cap indexes, optimistic about CSI 500 and ChiNext (with a weakening trend recently), and neutral about CSI 1000 and STAR 50 [18] - **Fund Inflow**: Margin trading funds continue to flow into broad - based indexes, with different trends for different indexes. From the perspective of theme ETFs, large - cap, small - cap, and micro - cap indexes have continuous inflows, while medium - cap indexes have a slowdown in inflow [20] - **Industry Fund Inflow**: In terms of margin trading funds, the power equipment industry has continuous inflows, while the computer, non - bank finance, and automobile industries have short - term outflows. Most industries in theme ETFs maintain a net inflow trend, except for the military and food and beverage industries [24] - **Private Fund Filing**: The filing speed of private funds is still slow. In November, 112 private funds were liquidated and 54 were newly issued; in October, 292 were liquidated and 608 were newly issued [25] 3.2 Stock - Futures Linkage - **Understanding Stock - Futures Linkage**: Stock - futures linkage is affected by factors such as demand, supply, price, cost, profit, valuation, and macro - factors. There is a relationship between commodity futures and resource stocks [29] - **Linkage in Different Sectors**: - **Precious Metals**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, gold futures rose 93% and gold stocks rose 117%; silver futures rose 99% and silver stocks rose 118%. The pricing is related to the overflow of macro - liquidity [35] - **Copper and Aluminum**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, copper futures rose 25% and copper stocks rose 69%; aluminum futures rose 9% and aluminum stocks rose 83%. The pricing is related to AI - related power demand and power supply for electrolytic aluminum [38] - **New Energy**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, lithium carbonate futures fell 7% and lithium mining stocks rose 59%. From December 26, 2024, to November 20, 2025, polysilicon futures rose 25% and polysilicon stocks rose 33%. The pricing is related to anti - involution policies and the bottom - up reversal of lithium carbonate [42] - **Coal and Real Estate**: From January 1, 2024, to November 20, 2025, coking coal futures fell 41% and coal stocks rose 10%; glass futures rose 45% and real estate stocks rose 12%. The pricing of coking coal is related to short - term supply surplus, while coal has stable dividends. Glass also has supply surplus, but real estate may have a reversal [46] - **Advanced Usage of Stock - Futures Linkage**: In fully cleared industries, the cost - to - price ratio can be estimated through the linkage between stock prices and futures prices, and then the elasticity between futures and stocks can be calculated. By comparing the estimated cost - to - price ratio with industrial reality, it can be determined which is more overvalued or undervalued between commodities and stocks [47] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - The bull market continues, but it is a structural one. It is recommended to consider stock index futures. There are also opportunities in the commodity futures market [50]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend with rapid shifts in hot sectors and trading styles as it approaches the end of the year, prompting discussions on how institutions and individual investors should navigate the cross-year market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by wide fluctuations and a gradual upward trend, with expectations that clarity may emerge after the upcoming Two Sessions next year [3] - The rise of the power sector, driven by the AI wave, indicates that the overall industrial logic remains focused on the expansion of AI-related sectors, with significant investment opportunities in midstream manufacturing companies, particularly in energy storage [3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - One reason individual investors often incur losses is due to a lack of research capability, leading them to trade based on news rather than informed analysis; investors are encouraged to treat investing as a professional endeavor and operate within their knowledge limits [5] - The current bull market and new industrial trends present an opportunity for investors to enjoy a steady growth trajectory, emphasizing the importance of understanding market dynamics [5] Group 3: Institutional Insights - The dialogue among various institutions reveals a transformation in investment philosophy and market style, where sector rotation is influenced by policy guidance, industrial changes, and shifts in capital structure, necessitating a systematic investment framework to navigate cyclical fluctuations [7] - The event serves as a starting point for market participants to explore adaptations to the new normal, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and supporting individual investors in building tailored investment systems [9]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40%, Shenzhen Component down 0.76%, and ChiNext down 1.12%, while the Northbound 50 fell by 1.00%. The total trading volume was 1.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,850 stocks declining [1] Reasons for Market Adjustment - The first reason for the market adjustment is profit-locking by institutional investors, as November is recognized as a settlement month for public funds and a critical period for annual performance assessment. Institutions tend to shift from seeking excess returns to locking in profits, leading to active portfolio adjustments [2] - The second reason is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which has impacted global liquidity. Recent reports suggest that the Fed may not lower interest rates in the first half of next year, disrupting expectations for liquidity easing and causing capital outflows from the Asia-Pacific region, including A-shares [3] - The third reason is the rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which have raised market concerns. Recent remarks from the Japanese Prime Minister and subsequent countermeasures from China, such as travel warnings and import restrictions, have created uncertainty in economic and trade prospects between the two countries, affecting market sentiment [4] Long-term Market Outlook - Despite the current adjustment, the underlying logic supporting the bull market remains intact. China's rapid advancements in technology and military capabilities, along with ongoing policies aimed at boosting economic development and industrial upgrades, are expected to provide key support for the capital market [4] - The market is anticipated to undergo a period of consolidation, which may help digest profit-taking and repair valuation structures, ultimately paving the way for a return to an upward trajectory towards new highs [4] Investment Strategy - Given the recent market corrections, several risk signals have emerged, including the breaking of key moving averages and a decline in trading volume to around 1.7 trillion yuan. If trading volume does not rebound above 2 trillion yuan quickly, the index may struggle to achieve upward momentum in the short term [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy, avoiding heavy bets on high-priced technology stocks and instead diversifying into lower-priced sectors such as AI applications, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and dividend assets. This approach allows for both offensive and defensive positioning in response to upcoming market conditions [5][7]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.40% closing at 3931.05 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.76% at 12980.82 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12% at 3042.34 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 170.82 billion, a slight decrease of 17.7 billion from the previous day [3][6]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains uncertain, with many investors unclear whether the current market is in a bull or bear phase. The indices opened higher but faced a downward trend without significant resistance [5][6]. - The banking sector showed strong support, with major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China reaching historical highs, indicating a determined effort to stabilize the market [6]. Sector Performance - A notable event was the impact of a report regarding potential interest subsidies for the real estate sector, which initially boosted the sector and led to a temporary rise in the Hang Seng Index. However, this effect was short-lived, and the real estate sector eventually retreated [6][7]. - Despite positive news from Nvidia's quarterly report, which exceeded market expectations and led to a 5% increase in its stock price, the semiconductor sector in A-shares saw a decline of approximately 1%. This suggests a significant profit-taking pressure within the tech sector [7][8]. Individual Stock Movements - Approximately 1,400 stocks rose while around 3,600 stocks fell, indicating a broad market decline. The median decline for falling stocks was 0.75%, aligning with the outflow of 60 billion in main capital [7]. - The announcement of a merger between CITIC Securities and other firms did not generate interest in the brokerage sector, reflecting a lack of positive market sentiment towards this segment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The perception that brokerage stocks are underperforming compared to banks and insurance is a "visual error," as brokerage stocks have actually shown significant gains in recent months [3][4][6]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - From September 24, 2024, to the present, the brokerage sector has increased by over 47%, while the banking sector has risen by over 36% and the insurance sector by slightly over 33% [4]. - Since April 7, 2025, brokerages have gained 14%, outperforming banks at 9% and insurance at 5%, although Agricultural Bank has surged nearly 57% during this period [6][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector is characterized by high beta, meaning it experiences larger fluctuations compared to banks and insurance, which are more stable and provide consistent dividends [6][12]. - The "star stock effect" from individual high-performing bank stocks can skew perceptions of overall sector performance, as many smaller banks have not performed as well [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market is described as a "slow bull" rather than a full-blown bull market, with a focus on safety leading to the outperformance of banks and insurance [15][16]. - If a comprehensive bull market begins in 2026, brokerages are expected to take the lead due to increased trading volumes and business opportunities [17][18]. Group 4: Seasonal Trends - Historically, brokerages experience a "Spring Festival offensive" with an 80% probability of rising in January and February, making this a strategic time for investment [19].

最近后台被问爆了："明明是牛市，怎么手中券商股涨得磨磨唧唧，反倒银行保险一路飘红？慢牛格局 下，啥时候券商股会再来行情？" 不少散户朋友盯着账户犯嘀咕，当初满仓券商盼着"牛市旗手"发力，结果看着隔壁农业银行接连创新 高，心里那叫一个急。 先别慌着换仓，今天咱们把这事说透——券商不是涨得少，是前面冲得太猛，你刚好错过了它的"热身 赛"。 所谓"券商涨不过银行保险"，本质上是个"视觉误差"。 咱们先把尺子亮出来，用数据说话才靠谱。记住两个关键时间点：2024年9月24日，还有2025年4月7日 的特朗普黄金坑，这都是本轮行情的两个重要起点。 从2024年9月24日算起，到昨天券商板块整体涨幅超过47%，而银行板块超36%，保险板块略超33%。 再看2025年4月7日以来的这波反弹，券商也以14%的涨幅，跑赢了银行的9%和保险的5%，而需要注意 的是这区间农业银行区间涨幅接近57%，远超其他大金融个股，后面我们再会详细讲讲它的影响。 这么一看是不是很清晰？券商压根没输，甚至一直是"隐形冠军"。 那为啥大家总觉得银行保险更能打？这就得说说三类资产的"性格"差异了。本质是券商整体行业β要高 于银行和保险，所以大振幅下对 ...

Core Viewpoints - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, as highlighted by Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan [3][5]. Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to experience a "non-typical" recovery in 2026, driven by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing domestic demand expansion policies. Key factors contributing to export resilience include fiscal expansion in developed economies, easing of China-U.S. tariff conflicts, and improvements in China's industrial competitiveness [4][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and original breakthroughs, with R&D expenditure projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, representing about 2.69% of GDP, surpassing Japan and South Korea in scale [5][10]. Capital Market Development - The capital market is set to enter a new stage of high-quality development, with a focus on direct financing and reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, and Beijing Stock Exchange. This will enhance the market's inclusiveness and adaptability [5][8]. - The formation of a healthy market ecosystem is expected to significantly increase the attractiveness of the market, with institutional investors' share of the market value projected to exceed 20% by the end of 2024 [8]. Bull Market Analysis - The bull market is far from over, with the potential for a two-phase bull market structure. The first phase, termed "Bull Market 1.0," occurred in 2025, while the second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," may begin in the second half of 2026 [4][15]. - The cyclical improvement in fundamentals, the strengthening of emerging industries, and the shift of residents' asset allocation towards equities are expected to support a comprehensive bull market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, suggesting that a bull market is underway, as evidenced by increasing public interest and discussions about stocks. However, it warns that new investors often face significant losses during bull markets due to a lack of systematic knowledge [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Market Overview - The article highlights a growing consensus that a bull market is emerging in the A-share market, with increased discussions about stocks among the public [3]. - It notes that in the previous bull market in 2015, over 70% of new investors ultimately lost money [3]. Investor Behavior - The article attributes the common behavior of "buying high and selling low" to a lack of a systematic knowledge framework among investors [4]. Educational Resources - The company offers a practical knowledge gift titled "The Answer Book for Investment and Finance," which includes four manuals covering wealth growth, insurance, funds, and stock planning [7][35]. - The manuals are designed to provide a comprehensive approach to personal finance and investment, emphasizing practical solutions rather than complex theories [33]. Manual Summaries - **Wealth Growth Manual**: This manual outlines a seven-step method to achieve financial freedom, encouraging a comprehensive personal financial review and a five-year plan [8][10]. - **Insurance Manual**: It emphasizes the importance of insurance as a safety net for investments, detailing common reasons for claim denials and providing strategies for navigating the claims process [12][17]. - **Fund Manual**: This manual addresses the paradox of fund investing, where funds may perform well, but individual investors do not. It offers strategies for selecting quality funds and evaluating fund managers [23][25]. - **Stock Investment Manual**: It provides a framework for understanding the A-share market through macroeconomic cycles and offers a method for identifying promising investment opportunities [30][33]. Membership Promotion - The article promotes a limited-time offer for new or renewing members to receive the four manuals and access to online courses, highlighting the value of this educational package [36][37].