Core Viewpoint - The polyester raw material market is experiencing fluctuations with PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol showing mixed trends, indicating a potential bearish outlook for prices in the near term [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On Monday, PX futures closed at 6796 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, while PTA futures closed at 4798 yuan/ton, up 0.42%, and ethylene glycol futures closed at 4267 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1] - The spot market for PX showed a price correction, with negotiations for September to December around +8.5/+10, while PTA spot discussions were generally weak [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is expected to remain weak due to increased supply and weak demand, with attention on the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 for production decisions [1] - Domestic PX production is experiencing a temporary decline due to maintenance of large facilities, with an operating rate of 83.8% as of June 27, down 1.8 percentage points [1] - Ethylene glycol's domestic operating rate is at 67.27%, down 3.07 percentage points, with expectations of concentrated imports in July leading to inventory accumulation at ports [1] Group 3: Price Outlook and Trading Strategy - The market logic suggests that while PX supply is tight, cost and end-user feedback may lead to price declines; PTA supply is expected to increase as downstream demand weakens [1] - The trading strategy recommends a bearish outlook for polyester raw materials, with specific support and resistance levels identified for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation decreased significantly. Fundamentally, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is uncertain, and Thailand has restricted the import of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, raw material shortages and cost pressures coexist in Yunnan, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry, the operating rate of some producers has decreased, and the electronics industry has entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered, and domestic inventories have increased slightly, but overseas inventories continue to decline [4]. - Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark, with the 10 - day moving average providing support [4]. - It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin fluctuated weakly this week, with a weekly decline of -0.60% and an amplitude of 2.08%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 267,250 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomic factors include strong US employment data and a decrease in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamental factors involve supply uncertainties from Myanmar and Congo, and weak demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries. Technically, positions are stable, and attention should be paid to the 270,000 yuan mark [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Premium**: This week, the futures price fluctuated, and the spot premium was lowered. As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 266,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,560 yuan/ton or 0.58% from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 33,805 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton or 0.01% from June 27 [7]. - **Ratio Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.19, an increase of 0.05 from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the Shanghai - LME Tin ratio was 7.94, an increase of 0.03 from June 26 [14]. - **Position Changes**: As of July 4, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 55,224 lots, a decrease of 4,270 lots or 7.18% from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was -1,309 lots, a decrease of 5,196 lots from June 23 [15][16]. 3.3 Industry Chain 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import and Refined Tin Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin production was -0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of -0.01%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative refined tin production was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [21][22]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On July 4, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 13.33% from June 27. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton or 8.7% from June 27 [25]. - **Refined Tin Import Window**: As of July 4, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was -6,588 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,725.45 yuan/ton from June 27. In May 2025, the import volume of refined tin was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the export volume of refined tin was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of July 3, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,165 tons, an increase of 50 tons or 2.36% from June 26. As of July 4, 2025, the total tin inventory was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons or 3.49% from last week. As of July 4, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 6,807 tons, an increase of 256 tons or 3.91% from June 27 [38]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - **Philadelphia Semiconductor Index**: From January to May 2025, the integrated circuit production was 193.46 billion pieces, an increase of 23.18 billion pieces or 13.61% compared with the same period last year [41]. - **Domestic Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. As of May 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the urea market enters a waiting period. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side centralized maintenance leading to lower operating rates and daily output, and demand - side trade - related export pick - up preventing significant short - term inventory build - up. However, export information is uncertain. The main concerns are spot trading and overall commodity sentiment [3][4]. - In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. Domestic demand is weak due to pre - empted agricultural demand and high inventories of middle - stream traders. With an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, there is still significant long - term pressure on urea, and the price center may gradually decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market (Urea Main Contract 09)**: The closing price was 1,737 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,733 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the trading volume was 155,952 lots (down 108,465 lots), the open interest was 222,192 lots (down 1,691 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 500 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 540.519 million yuan (down 374.532 million yuan) [2]. - **Basis**: The Shandong regional basis was 63 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 77 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and the Dongguang - to - futures basis (cheapest deliverable) was 23 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The UR09 - UR01 spread for Henan Xinlianxin was 38 (1,810) (down 320) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices of some enterprises changed. For example, Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,500 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and Shanxi Fengxi was 1,660 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2]. - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 84.49% (down 1.68 percentage points), and the daily output was 195,610 tons (down 3,900 tons) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 million tons, a decrease of 77,400 tons from the previous week, a 7.06% week - on - week decrease. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases [3]. - Short - term: The spot market has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The market is in a waiting period due to expected marginal improvement in fundamentals in early July and uncertain export information [3][4]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main issues. Domestic demand is weak because of pre - empted agricultural demand and high - inventory middle - stream traders, and long - term price pressure is high [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the rapeseed industry, including futures, spot, upstream, downstream, and industry news. It also provides views on rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil markets [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is under pressure due to the increase in soybean supply and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. However, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed are reported, along with changes in positions such as net buying volume and open interest. For example, the futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9619 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions in rapeseed oil is 27560 hands, a decrease of 5099 hands [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spreads of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are given, with the rapeseed oil spread at 69 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton) and the rapeseed meal spread at - 781 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and for rapeseed meal is 16855 (down 3294) [2]. Spot Market - **Prices**: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed, and related products are reported, along with price changes. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9730 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2500 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios and Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.82 (up 0.07), and the spreads between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are also provided [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production and Import**: Global rapeseed production forecasts are given, with the global rapeseed production forecast at 89.77 million tons (up 0.21 million tons). Rapeseed import volume decreased by 15.37% compared to the previous period, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 88.82 yuan/ton to 5242.76 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons (unchanged), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 11.46% (down 2.8%) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal, eastern, and Guangxi regions are reported, with most showing a downward trend. For example, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 111,500 tons (down 10,500 tons) [2]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil, mustard oil, and rapeseed meal increased, with the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil at 340,000 tons (up 100,000 tons) and rapeseed meal at 287,900 tons (up 41,300 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Demand**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 30,000 tons (up 1,900 tons), and of rapeseed meal is 34,800 tons (up 6,100 tons). The monthly production of feed and edible vegetable oil is reported, along with the monthly retail sales of catering [2]. Option Market - **Volatility**: The implied volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, as well as their historical volatilities, are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.59% (down 0.98%) [2]. Industry News - **ICE Rapeseed**: On July 2, the most actively traded November ICE rapeseed contract rose 24.80 Canadian dollars, or 3.5%, to settle at 734.50 Canadian dollars per ton, following the rise of US soybean oil [2]. - **USDA Data**: As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year, higher than analysts' expectations. The 2025 US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and last year's level [2]. - **Canada**: Statistics Canada revised up the 2024 rapeseed production forecast to 1.918 million tons and revised down the 2025 rapeseed planting area to 21.5 million acres [2]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil Views - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by the increase in soybean supply, but the demand in aquaculture is increasing. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market may remain volatile in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed oil market is in the off - season of consumption with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure. But the decrease in oil mill operating rate and potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect the market. The price may fluctuate more significantly in the short - term [2]. Key Points to Monitor - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-03 市场矛盾有限，现货价格保持平稳 市场分析 1、7月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3571元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅0.14%； 持仓227295手，环比上周439手，成交152378手，环比下降3466手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4070元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日华北市场沥青现货价格窄幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳，沥青盘面则延续窄幅震荡态势。就沥青 自身基本面而言，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂 生产积极性增强，另外部分企业消费税抵扣比例上调有利于提高开工负荷，但整体增量不多，当前供应压力有限。 与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求表现也一般，情绪仍较为谨慎，市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年7月3日 | | | | 将诗语 | Z00170002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 肌值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华北报价 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 | 1230 | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 | 1070 | 1070 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 | 1290 | 1290 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 玻璃2505 | 1190 | 1113 | 77 | 6.92% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1052 | 980 | 72 | 7.35% | | | 05基左 | -20 | 27 | -77 | -285.19% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 00种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The sentiment of US soybean oil is positive, leading to an increase in international oil prices. However, there is insufficient weather speculation for US soybeans, resulting in a lack of driving force for soybean oil [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - Palm oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,440 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.25% increase and 8,480 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.47% increase. - Soybean oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,018 yuan/ton during both the day and night sessions, with a 0.58% increase during the day and 0.00% at night. - Rapeseed oil futures (domestic) closed at 9,619 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.50% increase and 9,648 yuan/ton during the night session with a 0.30% increase. - Malaysian palm oil futures closed at 4,063 ringgit/ton during the day session with a 2.34% increase and 4,079 ringgit/ton during the night session with a 0.42% increase. - CBOT soybean oil futures closed at 55.07 cents/pound with a 2.59% increase [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - Palm oil futures trading volume was 576,422 lots, an increase of 96,919 lots, and open interest was 452,137 lots, an increase of 23,906 lots. - Soybean oil futures trading volume was 363,901 lots, an increase of 108,837 lots, and open interest was 560,808 lots, an increase of 10,433 lots. - Rapeseed oil futures trading volume was 345,440 lots, an increase of 48,319 lots, and open interest was 330,024 lots, an increase of 20,684 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price was 1,005 dollars/ton, with no change [1]. - **Basis**: - Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 202 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi was - 19 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,179 yuan/ton, compared to 1,141 yuan/ton the day before. - The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 422 yuan/ton, compared to - 364 yuan/ton the day before. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, compared to - 24 yuan/ton the day before. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 44 yuan/ton, compared to 42 yuan/ton the day before. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan/ton, compared to 49 yuan/ton the day before [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. Malaysia's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 19.1 million tons, with a slight increase from the previous forecast due to good harvesting conditions. - Global palm oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to be 42.1 million tons, 1.2% higher than last month's forecast and 0.7% higher than the 2023/24 level. - Thailand's 2024/25 palm oil production is expected to be 3.52 million tons, a 1.9% decrease from the previous forecast, with an expected range of 3.02 - 4.02 million tons. In April, Thailand's production reached a record 421,000 tons, a 39.8% increase from March. - As of the week ending June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. They also sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 264,400 tons. - The Indian Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) expects a 5% reduction in India's soybean planting area this year, mainly due to farmers switching to other crops like corn, red millet, and cotton [2][3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil may briefly surge upward after oscillating and consolidating, while Dalian palm oil futures may briefly dip to 8,200 yuan. For soybeans, the USDA quarterly report has limited impact on CBOT soybeans, and the market expects ample supply and future high yields, but the report may show a decrease in US soybean oil inventory at the end of May. Domestically, the demand for soybean oil is weak, inventories are increasing, and the decline in spot basis quotes is limited [1]. Corn - The overall bullish trend of corn remains unchanged, but the pace is slow. In the short - term, the spot price is generally stable, with the price in the Northeast remaining firm and that in North China showing local declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand gap supports the upward movement of corn prices. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy information [3]. Meal - Supported by US soybean oil, US soybeans strengthened last night. The USDA's new planting area report had a neutral impact. The technical support for US soybeans has increased, and the market is showing signs of stabilization. In China, the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal are rising, the basis is stable, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand. There are opportunities to buy at low points [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of pigs has not escaped the oscillating pattern. The short - term sentiment may be strong, but the 09 contract is under pressure due to the postponed inventory of live pigs [8][9]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a slight rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply is becoming more abundant, limiting the rebound. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment for some time, but considering future imports, the market is expected to turn bearish after the rebound [12]. Cotton - The contradiction of tight old - crop inventory in the upstream supply cannot be resolved in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, and the demand is sluggish. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [13]. Eggs - The supply of eggs in China is sufficient, the demand is average, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short term, and remain stable later [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan on July 1, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2509 was 7,972 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 268 yuan, up 4.69%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 20,582 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,430 yuan on July 1, up 0.36%. The futures price of P2509 was 8,336 yuan, up 0.07%. The basis was 94 yuan, up 34.29%. The import cost was 8,719.3 yuan, and the import profit was - 383 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9,630 yuan on July 1, up 0.52%. The futures price of OI2509 was 9,477 yuan, up 0.66%. The basis was - 12 yuan, down 7.27% [1]. Corn - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port was 2,383 yuan, up 0.21%. The 9 - 1 spread was 103 yuan, up 0.98%. The import profit was 580 yuan, up 3.52%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning increased by 182.87% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,743 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was - 23 yuan, down 76.92%. The 9 - 1 spread was 65 yuan, up 8.33% [3]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,840 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2509 was 2,961 yuan, unchanged. The basis was - 121 yuan, unchanged. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans in August was 111 yuan, up 3.7% [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 0.54%. The basis was - 96 yuan, up 5.88%. The import crushing profit for Canadian rapeseed in November was 107 yuan, down 47.03% [6]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract price was 11,850 yuan, up 9.72%. The price of the 2507 contract was 13,935 yuan, up 0.61%, and that of the 2509 contract was 13,865 yuan, down 0.04%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 70 yuan, down 450% [8]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in various regions increased, with the price in Henan at 15,050 yuan, up 100 yuan; in Shandong at 15,250 yuan, up 150 yuan; etc. [8]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,596 yuan, down 0.57%. The price of the 2509 contract was 5,775 yuan, down 0.55%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 15.70 cents per pound, down 3.03% [12]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,090 yuan, up 0.16%. The import cost of Brazilian sugar (in - quota) was 4,334 yuan, down 1.90% [12]. - **Industry**: The national sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year, and the sales increased by 23.07% [12]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,745 yuan, up 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract was 13,755 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of ICE US cotton was 67.96 cents per pound, down 0.12% [13]. - **Spot**: The arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,187 yuan, up 0.46%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,212 yuan, up 0.38% [13]. - **Industry**: The inventory in the north decreased by 9.6% month - on - month, and the industrial inventory decreased by 1.2% [13]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,684 yuan per 500 kg, down 0.14%. The price of the 08 contract was 3,568 yuan per 500 kg, up 0.06% [14]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area was 2.60 yuan per catty, down 1.43%. The base price was - 964 yuan per 500 kg, down 4.31% [14].

【2025年7月1日碳酸锂期货收涨，市场仍供大于求】2025年7月1日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于62140元/ 吨，收于62780元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当日成交量398387手，持仓量326676手，较前一减少 4148手，期货升水电碳1480元/吨。所有合约总持仓592395手，较前一减少4592手，合约总成交量较前 一减少9815手，投机度0.82，仓单22940手，较上日增加312手。 现货方面，7月1日电池级碳酸锂报价 6.05 - 6.21万元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价5.92 - 6.02万元/吨，均较前一无变化。 库存上，现货库存13.68万 吨，其中冶炼厂库存5.90万吨，下游库存4.06万吨，其他库存3.72万吨，成交价格重心暂时持稳。市场 仍供大于求，供应端可流通货源充足，库存压力未缓解；需求端下游正极厂7月排产有增量预期，但仍 以刚需采购为主，观望情绪浓，成交少。 6月，国内碳酸锂市场显著增产，当月总产量环比增长8%， 同比增幅达18%，产量达78090吨。 策略上，基本面偏弱，过剩格局未变，7月材料厂排产有增量，短 期消费有支撑。7月仓单注销，供应端减产消息扰动致盘面波动放 ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 4 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 6 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 8 | | 烧碱：后期仍有压力 | 9 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 21 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 24 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短期波动下降 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：震荡调整走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：暂时观望，关注7月下旬挺价成色 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 31 | | 瓶片：短期震荡，多PR空PF | 31 | | 胶版印刷纸：震荡运行 | 32 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2 ...