Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View - In the short term, the decline rate of butadiene rubber has slowed down. The decrease in butadiene rubber inventory and the improvement in spot trading have supported the price. In the medium term, the weak performance of butadiene has led to a downward shift in the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. With the decline in the cost side, the processing profit of butadiene rubber has expanded significantly. Under the neutral background of butadiene rubber's own fundamentals, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. The macro - driving force has weakened, and butadiene rubber is expected to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (01 contract) increased by 70 yuan/ton to 10,305 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 4,704 lots to 128,144 lots, the open interest increased by 327 lots to 83,941 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 16,845 ten - thousand yuan to 653,280 ten - thousand yuan. The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract increased by 30 to - 5, and the monthly spread (BR12 - BR01) decreased by 10 to 80 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,300 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton and 125 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 2.44 percentage points to 66.7364%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 9,607 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 593 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 2.93 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.15%. During this period, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, the negotiation center continued to decline, and the cost side continued to have a negative impact. The downstream pressured for lower prices, and some production enterprises were under maintenance, resulting in a decrease in both production enterprise and trading enterprise inventories [1]. - From October 23 - 29, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% from the previous week, and the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% from the previous week. It is expected that the import volume from October to November will still be abundant [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1290.5, up 2.38%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 coking coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. The macro - level policy adjusted the tariff on US imports. Fundamentally, the mine's operating rate declined for three consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, with neutral inventory and seasonal increase in total inventory. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. [2] - On November 6, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1776.5, up 2.07%. The third round of price increase for coke in the spot market was implemented. Macro - level data showed that 21 troubled real - estate enterprises in the Chinese mainland had debt restructuring approved or completed. Fundamentally, the molten iron output continued to decline seasonally, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 32 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1290.50元/吨，环比上涨22.00元；J主力合约收盘价为1776.50元/吨，环比上涨23.50元。JM期货合约持仓量为984216.00手，环比增加45197.00手；J期货合约持仓量为49120.00手，环比减少135.00手。焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 57205.00手，环比增加14755.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5144.00手，环比增加470.00手。JM5 - 1月合约价差为54.50元/吨，环比下降9.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为135.50元/吨，环比下降6.50元。焦煤仓单为400.00张，环比减少500.00张；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，环比无变化。[2] Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1170.00元/吨，环比上涨5.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元。俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货价格为158.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元。京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1710.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元。京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1860.00元/吨，山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，环比上涨40.00元；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1330.00元/吨，环比无变化。JM主力合约基差为319.50元/吨，环比上涨18.00元；J主力合约基差为53.50元/吨，环比上涨31.50元。[2] Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤日产量为27.50万吨，环比增加1.00万吨；精煤周库存为295.00万吨，环比增加10.60万吨。产能利用率为0.38%，环比增加0.01%。原煤月产量为41150.50万吨，环比增加2100.80万吨。煤及褐煤月进口量为4600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨。523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为186.30万吨，环比减少4.00万吨。16个港口进口焦煤周库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨。[2] Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤周总库存为1052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；焦炭周库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨。全国247家钢厂炼焦煤周库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；焦炭周库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨。独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天。炼焦煤月进口量为1092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭月出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨。炼焦煤月产量为3975.92万吨，环比增加279.06万吨；焦炭月产量为4255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨。独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比下降0.03%；独立焦化厂吨焦盈利为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元。[2] Downstream Situation - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比下降3.00%；高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比下降1.33%。粗钢月产量为7349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨。[2] Industry News - 国务院关税税则委员会自2025年11月10日13时01分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施，一年内继续暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。郑商所发布动力煤期货2611合约有关事项公告，交易保证金标准为50%，涨跌停板幅度为10%，非期货公司会员或者客户单日开仓交易的最大数量为20手。泰国商业部外贸厅对原产于中国的热轧钢板反倾销案发起反规避调查。瑞典央行维持政策利率在1.75%不变。[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on supply - demand, and details on capital flows and macro - economic data. It offers insights into the palm oil, soybean, and other related markets both internationally and domestically, as well as key economic indicators from the US and China [1][3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures contract 01 was 4122.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.84% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Brent crude oil contract 01 on ICE closed at 63.55, down 1.24% from the previous day and 0.86% overnight [1]. - NYMEX WTI crude oil contract 12 closed at 59.64, down 1.31% from the previous day and 0.83% overnight [1]. - CBOT soybean contract 01 closed at 1134.50, up 1.27% from the previous day and 0.58% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 100.17, down 0.04% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2601, the spot price in North China was 8740, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 8350, with a basis of 204 and a decrease of 18 from the previous day [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2601, the spot price in Shandong was 3030, with a basis of - 10 and an increase of 21 from the previous day [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Areas Weather - In central Brazil, showers will be active until next week, which is beneficial for crops. In South Rio Grande do Sul/Paraná, there will be regional showers until Thursday, scattered showers on Friday, and regional showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Thursday and near to below normal from Friday to Saturday [5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 31 increased by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight - year high [7]. - India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low of 750,000 tons due to increased domestic inventory, weak food industry demand, and a narrowing price gap with other oilseeds [8]. - Analysts expect that as of the week ending October 30, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will net increase by 400,000 - 2 million tons, soybean meal by 50,000 - 450,000 tons, and soybean oil by 5,000 - 25,000 tons [9]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 12,300 tons, a decrease of 10,900 tons or 47% compared to the previous trading day [13]. - On November 5, the total trading volume of soybean meal at major domestic oil mills was 132,100 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons compared to the previous day [13]. 3.3.4 International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 37.5% [14]. - The US ADP employment in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 [14]. 3.3.5 Domestic Macroeconomic News - On November 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0901, up 16 points (yuan depreciation) [16]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan due to 557.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase maturities [16]. 3.4 Capital Flows - On November 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 4.605 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 132 million yuan, including 1.087 billion yuan for agricultural product futures, 937 million yuan for chemical futures, and 773 million yuan for black - series futures, while metal futures had a net outflow of 2.664 billion yuan. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 4.278 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net outflow of 30 million yuan [20]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking No specific information provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Bullish [1] - Alumina: Rebounding from the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The US employment market shows signs of stabilization with the October ADP employment increase exceeding expectations, while wage growth remains stagnant. The US October ISM services PMI rebounds above expectations, reaching an eight - month high, but inflation pressure becomes more evident [2] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,395, down 70 from the previous day; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,846, down 20. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased, and the LME aluminum 3M trading volume also decreased. The LME注销仓单占比 is 7.90%, down 0.35% [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,772, up 2. The trading volume increased, and the open interest also increased. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is - 19 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,830, down 130. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased slightly. The spread between the near - month contract and the first - continuous contract is - 125.00 [1] Spot Market - The average domestic alumina price is 2,881, down 15. The price of pre - baked anodes is 5,887, unchanged. The processing fees of aluminum rods and bars in some regions have different changes, and the alumina price in some import regions also shows different trends [1] Calculation - The profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 5,176.88, down 132.78. The profit of ADC12 is - 99, down 53. The export profit of aluminum sheets and coils is 3,713.74, down 316.86 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum has support at the lower level, the over - supply pattern of alumina remains unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,465, with a change of 325 compared to the previous day. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price is 2,866, down 43 from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract have decreased [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,770, down 19 from the previous day. The trading volume has decreased significantly, while the open interest has increased [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 20,960, down 105 from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest have changed accordingly [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit is 195.12, and the aluminum spot import profit and loss is - 2,318.36. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 614,000 tons, with a slight change [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 2,896, down 4 from the previous day. The import price from Australia and other regions has also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 21, and the price of Baotai ADC12 is 20,900, with a significant change compared to the previous day [1]

Report Information - Report Type: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 5, 2025 [2] Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The adjustment of oil prices and the weak supply and demand of asphalt may lead to a continued decline in asphalt prices [7]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The BU2601 contract opened at 3228 yuan/ton, closed at 3193 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3245 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3189 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%, and a trading volume of 174,100 lots. The BU2512 contract opened at 3228 yuan/ton, closed at 3198 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3248 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3182 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 26,400 lots [6]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan and Chongqing regions have declined, while the spot prices of asphalt in other regions are relatively stable. The continuous decline of asphalt futures has a negative impact on the spot price of asphalt [6]. - Supply: Some refineries have production reduction or shutdown plans, but the increase in production of other refineries will form a hedge, and the overall operating load rate is expected to remain basically the same [6]. - Demand: The demand side has begun to decline seasonally. The road projects in the Northeast and Northwest are coming to an end, and the rigid demand for asphalt is shrinking rapidly. The demand in North China and Shandong is only supported by some key projects, and the demand increment is scarce. The construction in the South is stable, but the slow consumption of resources highlights the weak demand. The lack of funds is still the core factor restricting the project progress, and the actual demand for asphalt continues to be weaker than expected [6]. 2. Industry News No industry news is provided in the report. 3. Data Overview - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3350 - 3520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The price adjustment of Sinopec's asphalt road transportation has a negative impact on the market sentiment, and the decline of asphalt prices in the north has led to some resources seizing the South China sales area, resulting in a sporadic decline in the social inventory quotation in South China [10]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt is 3130 - 3620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. Although the international oil price has risen slightly, the asphalt futures have continued to decline. The spot and contracts sold by futures - spot traders and the pre - sale of forward contracts by refineries have led to an oversupply of market offers and a continuous decline in asphalt prices [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 24th to 30th, styrene production and capacity utilization decreased, downstream consumption declined slightly, and plant and port inventories decreased but the inventory pressure remained high. Non - integrated process costs decreased and profits improved. This week, the impact of shutdown devices is expected to expand, and production and capacity utilization are expected to continue to decline. Downstream devices have the expectation of increasing load, which may deepen the short - term tight balance of ethylene supply and demand, but the positive impact on supply - demand improvement under high inventory pressure is limited. The integrated profit of styrene is close to the break - even line, indicating low valuation. EB2512 should pay attention to the support around 6300 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active futures contract for styrene was 6354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92 yuan; the trading volume was 515,106 lots, an increase of 185,190 lots; the 1 - month contract closing price was 6391 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan. The long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 440,755 lots, the net long - position volume was - 16,621 lots (an increase of 5749 lots), the short - position volume was 457,376 lots (a decrease of 3905 lots), the open interest was 401,028 lots (a decrease of 12,549 lots), and the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots (a decrease of 74 lots) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6752 yuan/ton, unchanged; FOB Korea was 795 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars; CFR China was 805 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.5 dollars. The mainstream prices in Northeast, South, North, and East China were 6175 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 6390 yuan/ton, and 6460 yuan/ton respectively, with the South China price increasing by 20 yuan/ton and the others remaining unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate prices of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, CIF Northwest Europe, and FD US Gulf were 741 dollars/ton, 731 dollars/ton, 664 dollars/ton, and 457 dollars/ton respectively, with the US Gulf price decreasing by 6 dollars/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF), Rotterdam (FOB), and the market prices in South, East, and North China were 676 dollars/ton, 5450 yuan/ton, 5420 yuan/ton, and 5230 yuan/ton respectively, with the East and North China prices increasing by 70 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 66.72%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the national inventory was 186,036 tons, a decrease of 10,231 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 109,800 tons, a decrease of 11,200 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 62.24% (an increase of 0.26 percentage points), 72.1% (a decrease of 0.7 percentage points), 52% (a decrease of 1.8 percentage points), 35% (an increase of 1 percentage point), and 66.71% (a decrease of 3.86 percentage points) respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, styrene production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week to 323,400 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 2.53% week - on - week to 66.72%. Downstream EPS, PS, and ABS consumption decreased by 0.18% week - on - week to 271,500 tons. As of October 30th, the styrene plant inventory was 186,000 tons, a decrease of 5.21% week - on - week. As of November 3rd, the East China port inventory was 179,300 tons, a decrease of 7.10% week - on - week; the South China port inventory was 27,900 tons, a decrease of 10% week - on - week. From October 24th to 30th, non - integrated costs decreased to 6860.06 yuan/ton, and non - integrated device profits improved to - 400 yuan/ton. EB2512 fell 1.99% to close at 6354 yuan/ton last week. Some devices such as Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton and Zhongwei Guangdong's 800,000 - ton plants were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decline in styrene production and capacity utilization [2]

塑料产业日报 2025-11-04 ，昨日国际油价小幅收涨。短期L2601预计震荡走势，技术上关注6830附近支撑与7040附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | -9 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6879 | -9 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6959 | -8 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7005 | -15 | | | 成交量(日,手) ...

免责声明 焦煤焦炭产业日报 2025/11/4 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1253.00 | -31.50↓ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1729.00 | -42.50↓ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 934368.00 | -20528.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 49440.00 | -815.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -71960.00 | -9746.00↓ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -5614.00 | -81.00↓ | | | JM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 58.50 | -4.50↓ | J5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 141.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 900.00 | +400.00↑ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 2070.00 | 0.00 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the latest market information for agricultural products and energy commodities, including overnight and spot market prices, important fundamental data, macro - economic news, and capital flow trends. It also analyzes the supply - demand situation from both international and domestic perspectives. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are provided. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4132.00, with a previous day's decline of 2.14% and an overnight increase of 0.41% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index, and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 99.86 with a 0.16% increase [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8770, with a basis of 100 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 232 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 498 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Regional Weather - US soybean - producing states' weather outlook from November 8 - 12 shows that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be near or below the median. The Midwest may experience variable weather that could disrupt harvesting [6][8]. - Brazil is expected to have widespread precipitation this week, which is beneficial for crops [8]. - International Supply - Demand - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia's palm oil and refined palm oil exports in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 11.62% year - on - year [9]. - The estimated US soybean harvest rate as of last Sunday is 91%, and the corn harvest rate is 83%. The US is expected to have a bumper harvest of both crops [10]. - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean sowing rate is 47.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [11]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 3, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 2600 tons (20%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased [16]. - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventories of palm oil and soybean oil in key regions decreased compared to the previous week, while the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [19]. - US manufacturing PMI data for October shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.7, lower than expected, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.5, higher than the previous value [19]. - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October is in line with expectations at 50 [19]. - Domestic News - On November 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the yuan appreciated) by 13 points [21]. - The Chinese central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [21]. 05 Capital Flow - On November 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.399 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.76 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 252 million yuan and bond futures had a net outflow of 88 million yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.