Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Continuing to bottom out [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - Japan's government plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, with a 6.3% increase compared to the current fiscal year. The budget growth is mainly driven by social security and defense spending. The government plans to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds, and the debt dependence is expected to drop to 24.2% [2]. - Due to rising inflation expectations, the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will take a more aggressive interest - rate hike path. The auction demand for 2 - year Japanese government bonds is weak, and the 10 - year break - even inflation rate has reached a record high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 229,349 lots, a decrease of 65,183 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,957 US dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,646 yuan, up 92 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 279,750 lots, an increase of 108,150 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,345 yuan, down 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 6,506 lots, a decrease of 908 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price is 6,187 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,715 yuan, and the alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 334 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 12 yuan, up 34 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,500 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [2].

Report Date - The report was released on December 26, 2025 [1] Industry Focus - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon industries [1][2] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, prices, profits, inventory, and raw material costs [2] - There is a news about the trading volume limit on polysilicon futures contracts starting from December 29, 2025 [2][4] - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is both 0, indicating a neutral view [4] Summary by Category Futures Market Data - Si2605: The closing price is 8,835 yuan/ton, with a change of -25 yuan compared to T - 1, 190 yuan compared to T - 5, and -125 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume is 268,435 lots, with a change of -53,715 lots compared to T - 1, -80,042 lots compared to T - 5, and 20,247 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest is 216,554 lots, with a change of -1,636 lots compared to T - 1, 8,774 lots compared to T - 5, and -47,365 lots compared to T - 22 [2] - PS2605: The closing price is 60,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 2,460 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,460 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume is 124,231 lots, with a change of -73,209 lots compared to T - 1 and -274,588 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest is 132,126 lots, with a change of 5,042 lots compared to T - 1 and -7,734 lots compared to T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon: The spot - to - futures basis varies depending on the benchmark, such as +415 yuan/ton (against East China Si5530), +15 yuan/ton (against East China Si4210), -135 yuan/ton (against Xinjiang 99 silicon) [2] - Polysilicon: The spot - to - futures basis against N - type re - feed is -8760 yuan/ton, with changes of -2,460 yuan compared to T - 1, -1,460 yuan compared to T - 5, and -5,525 yuan compared to T - 22 [2] Prices - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feed is 52,350 yuan/ton [2] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and other related products are also provided [2] Profits - Silicon plant: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 is -2491.5 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan new - standard 553 is -4829 yuan/ton [2] - Polysilicon enterprise: The profit is 8.0 yuan/kg, with changes compared to different time points [2] - Other industries: The profits of DMC enterprises, regenerative aluminum enterprises are also presented [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 19.6 million tons, the industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 75.1 million tons, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory is 4.6 million tons [2] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 30.3 million tons [2] Raw Material Costs - The costs of silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided [2] Macro and Industry News - Starting from December 29, 2025, non - futures company members or customers have a daily opening volume limit of 50 lots on each of the polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612. Hedging and market - making transactions are exempted, and accounts with real control relationships are managed as one account [2][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: p-Xylene, PTA, rubber, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][10][79] - **Neutral Trends**: MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, short fiber, bottle chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene [2][15][25] - **Negative Trends**: None 2. Core Views - **PX**: The unilateral price trend is strong, squeezing downstream profits. Despite polyester factory plans to cut production, the tight supply expectation cannot be falsified in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Supply tightens, cost support is strong, and the unilateral trend is upward. The PX price continues to rise, squeezing downstream profits [8]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The current valuation is low, but the high operating rate and high port inventory restrict price increases [9]. - **Rubber**: The market is oscillating strongly. Although the price of Thai glue has declined, the cup rubber price is relatively firm, and the raw material price in Yunnan is stable [10][12]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a weak current situation but has strong future expectations, entering an oscillatory pattern. The previous rise was due to improved butadiene fundamentals and strong far - month expectations, but the current fundamentals have weakened marginally [15]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable. The overall supply and demand are relatively stable, with a slight decline in refinery operating rates and inventory rates [17][26]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot trading has declined. The raw material price is oscillating, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply side has some new production and maintenance, and the medium - term supply - demand pressure is still large [27][28]. - **PP**: The PDH profit is compressed again, and the market is oscillating steadily. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [30][31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. - **Pulp**: It is oscillating. The pulp price has increased weekly, but the intraday price is stable. The futures and spot markets show differentiation, and the port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The downstream demand is average, and the float glass factory is mainly focused on shipping at a price - for - volume strategy [47]. - **Methanol**: It is oscillating. The port inventory has increased significantly, and the spot price shows a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Urea**: The medium - term price center will move up. Although the production has gradually recovered, the downstream demand lacks continuous upward momentum [55][57]. - **Styrene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026, but there are also risks of downstream inventory back - pressure [58][61]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [63]. - **LPG**: The trend is under pressure. The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [65][71]. - **Propylene**: The spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and the market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [66]. - **PVC**: It is oscillating weakly. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has risen slightly, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The low - sulfur fuel oil is oscillating strongly, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The near - month contract is oscillating, and the far - month contract should pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza. The supply and demand of shipping capacity and freight rates are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics and market demand [81][93]. - **Short Fiber**: It is strong in the short term, and the processing fee is compressed. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback of polyester production cuts [99]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see. The market price is relatively stable, and the cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating in the short term. The current inventory is high, but it is expected to improve in 2026, and the price may show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [59][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PTA device restarts and load reductions coexist, MEG operating rate increases slightly, and polyester load is at a high level [6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA are 1, MEG is 0 [8]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is long - biased, and attention should be paid to multi - PX and short - downstream positions; PTA is long - biased, and attention should be paid to positive spreads and multi - PTA and short - downstream positions; MEG is bearish in the medium term [8][9]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price of Thai glue has declined, and the cup rubber price has increased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The inventory of butadiene and synthetic rubber has increased [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [15]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The refinery operating rate and inventory rate have decreased slightly [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [25]. - **Market Information**: The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 will decrease, the factory inventory will decrease, and the social inventory will increase [26]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has increased, and the open interest has increased. The basis is weak, and the spot price has increased slightly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [29]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material price is oscillating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large in the medium term [28]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is under pressure, and the spot price has increased slightly [30]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [32]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak [31]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 2233, the spot price is 710, and the basis is - 14. The factory inventory has decreased [33][34]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [36]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern persists around the Spring Festival, and the demand is difficult to support [35]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has increased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks [40][44]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [40]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price has decreased slightly [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [47]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass price has decreased in some areas, and the downstream demand is average [47]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis is stable, and the spot price has shown a differentiated operation [50][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [53]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has increased. The basis has decreased, and the spot price is stable [55]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [57]. - **Industry News**: The domestic urea enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market price center has moved up [56][57]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, and the spot price has some changes. The supply - demand structure of the styrene industry chain provides some support for the price in 2026 [58][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [58]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has decreased slightly, the trading volume has decreased, and the open interest has decreased. The basis has increased, and the spot price is stable [63]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market is weak and stable, the supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is general [63]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is at a low level. The PDH operating rate has increased slightly [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [70]. - **Market Information**: The CP paper price has increased slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [71]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price is 4469, the spot price is 4480, and the basis is 11. The social inventory has increased [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [77]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the rebound space is limited [75]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have decreased, and the spot price has increased slightly. The price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market has rebounded slightly [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [79]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased slightly, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the freight rate index has increased. The shipping capacity has changed, and the geopolitical situation affects the market [81][93]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [98]. - **Macro News**: There are new developments in the Gaza cease - fire negotiation and shipping operations in the Red Sea [90][91]. Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The short - fiber sales are light, and the bottle - chip market trading atmosphere has declined slightly [99][100]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [100]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has increased, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price is stable. The cost and profit situation has little change [103]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [103]. - **Industry News**: The market price in Shandong and Guangdong is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general [104][106]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price has changed, the trading volume and open interest have changed, and the spot price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased [107][108]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [108]. - **News**: The Jiangsu pure benzene port inventory has increased, and the Shandong pure benzene price has increased slightly [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on the lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and inventory data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 123,520 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan (-0.96%) daily but up 17,360 yuan (16.35%) weekly. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, down 24,183 lots (-2.55%) daily and 89,093 lots (-8.79%) weekly, and the open interest was 607,187 lots, down 40,179 lots (-6.21%) daily and 65,524 lots (-9.74%) weekly [3]. - The closing price of the weighted - index contract was 123,776 yuan/ton, down 926 yuan (-0.74%) daily but up 17,683 yuan (16.67%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,532,681 lots, up 190,899 lots (14.23%) daily and 221,433 lots (16.89%) weekly, and the open interest was 1,072,674 lots, down 2,555 lots (-0.24%) daily but up 6,443 lots (0.60%) weekly [3]. - For different contract spreads, e.g., LC2601 - LC2605 was - 1,980 yuan/ton, with daily and weekly changes of - 20 yuan (1.02%) and - 260 yuan (15.12%) respectively [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 17,101 lots, unchanged daily but up 1,465 lots (9.37%) weekly [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore market, the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (1.71%) daily; lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) was 6,405 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.87%) daily; and lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) was 10,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.86%) daily [18]. - In the lithium salt market, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.44%) daily; battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.35%) daily; and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 88,430 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (4.00%) daily [18]. - Regarding price spreads, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged daily but up 50 yuan (1.92%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 10,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.93%) daily and 950 yuan (-8.21%) weekly [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2601 contract varied, e.g., Shengxin Lithium Energy was - 1,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Tianqi Lithium was - 1,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [30]. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses had no change in receipts, while Yichun Yinli decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%) showed certain trends over time, as presented in the graph [34]. - The production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods also had corresponding trends over the period from December 24 to October 25 [34]. - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, were also presented in graphical form, showing their trends over time [36][38].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. It also presents important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - producing regions, international and domestic supply - demand situations, and relevant economic and policy news. These factors collectively influence the market trends of the commodities [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Commodity Futures**: The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodity futures are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4035.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.02%. Brent March crude oil on ICE closed at 61.84, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.23% overnight [1]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their percentage changes are given. The US dollar index is at 97.95, up 0.01%. The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.0471, down 0.07% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot Price Relationship**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE豆油 2605, and DCE豆粕 2605 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8600, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of - 20 [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented. The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 150 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 446 dollars per ton [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions in Producing Areas** - **Brazil**: Weather conditions in most soybean - producing areas are generally favorable for crops, although some regions may face flood risks, and a lack of rainfall in certain areas is a concern [4]. - **Argentina**: Soil moisture in most soybean - producing areas is suitable for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4]. - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44%. Indonesia's actions against illegal palm oil enterprises may disrupt production and increase global prices [6]. - **Soybeans**: Argentina's soybean sales data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are reported, along with the procurement by local oil mills and the export industry [8]. - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index decreased slightly but had the largest annual increase since 2016. Different types of ships' freight indices and daily earnings changes are provided [9]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Oil and Meal**: On December 24, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national average oil - mill operating rate rose [11]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased. The average prices of pork and eggs also declined [11]. - **International Economic Data** - **Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January and March 2026 is presented [12]. - **Unemployment and Mortgage Rates**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 were 21.4 million, lower than expected. The 30 - year fixed - mortgage rate decreased [12]. - **Data Release Delay**: Due to the US federal government holiday, the release of EIA's crude oil and natural gas inventory data was postponed [12]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On December 24, the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased, indicating RMB appreciation [14]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank carried out 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 24, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan. On December 25, it will conduct 4000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations [14]. 3.4 Fund Flows On December 24, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 205.42 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 63.14 billion yuan, with different sub - sectors having different net inflow/outflow situations. Stock index futures had a net inflow of 141.68 billion yuan, and treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 0.86 billion yuan [17]. 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking There is no specific content provided in the report for this section.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the price of the apple futures AP2605 contract is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The current trading atmosphere in the apple sales area is light, the New Year's Day holiday stocking has not brought obvious improvement, the terminal sales speed is slower than the same period last year, and second and third - level wholesalers are less enthusiastic about purchasing due to high apple prices. Technically, the AP2605 contract showed a bullish trend on the day, with bulls taking the initiative in the short - term [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract行情**: On December 23, 2025, the apple AP2605 futures contract fluctuated upwards, closing at 9230 points, a 0.49% increase from the previous day. The daily trading volume was 93,740 lots, and the open interest was 144,841 lots, a decrease of 3,937 lots from the previous trading day [2]. - **Variety Price**: All apple futures contracts rose on the day. The trading volume was 99,112 lots, and the total open interest of the variety was 168,460 lots, a decrease of 4,885 lots from the previous trading day [4]. - **Associated Market**: The apple options had a total trading volume of 6,247 lots and a total open interest of 31,782 lots, an increase of 630 lots. The total number of exercises on the day was 0 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: The current spot price of apples is 8,200 yuan/ton, the futures settlement price is 9,209 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 1,009 yuan/ton [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the number of registered warehouse receipts today is 0 lots [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry News**: As Christmas approaches, the market for late - harvested Fuji apples in storage remains stable. The stocking atmosphere in the production areas is not strong, the sales of farmers' apples are weak, and merchants are gradually packaging and shipping their own inventory [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily K - line of the AP2605 contract on the day showed a positive line, with an overall trend of opening high and moving higher. After closing with a negative line the previous day, the positive line on the day directly covered the previous day's negative line entity, indicating that the bulls took the initiative in the intraday game [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given reports regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views 粕类产业 - The US soybean market has support at the bottom due to ongoing exports, but the strong expectation of a bumper harvest in South America restricts the upside potential. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a loose supply - demand situation, with limited downside and no clear upward drivers [1]. 生猪产业 - Spot prices are slightly stronger. The demand for curing around the Winter Solstice has increased, and the slaughter cycle is extended. The market shows a short - term trend of being slightly stronger in a volatile manner [2]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, with exports improving, providing support to the market. Soybean oil has potential support from increased bio - diesel production due to tax credits, and the domestic demand may increase. Rapeseed oil's focus is on whether the 05 contract can break through the 9000 - yuan resistance [4]. 玉米 industry - The supply of corn is affected by weather in the Northeast and the selling rhythm in the North China. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is weak. The market shows a short - term weak and volatile pattern with limited downside [5]. 红枣 industry - The raw material acquisition in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the market arrival is less than in previous years. The hedging profit is negative, and the future trend depends on the consumption situation [8]. 白糖 industry - The ICE raw sugar futures are in a short - term rebound, but the overall supply outlook is loose, keeping the trend bearish. The domestic sugar market has stopped falling and is rebounding, but the rebound is limited by supply pressure [10]. 棉花 industry - ICE cotton futures are rising slightly due to weak dollar and strong export demand. The domestic cotton supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is weakening. The market is expected to fluctuate in a relatively strong range [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - The supply of laying hens is gradually decreasing, and the demand is expected to improve during the New Year and Spring Festival. However, the overall supply - demand contradiction is only marginally alleviated, and the near - term contracts are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [14]. 苹果 industry - The market consumption has slightly improved during the festival, but the apple market is squeezed by citrus fruits. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm, and long positions are advised to exit at an appropriate time [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 3100 yuan/ton, M2605 futures price is 2728 yuan/ton; Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2420 yuan/ton, RM2605 futures price is 2344 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread is - 122, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread is - 56, and the oil - meal ratio shows an increase [1]. 生猪产业 - **Futures**: The main contract basis is - 15 yuan/ton, the price of Niu Zhu 2605 is 11985 yuan/ton, and the price of Sheng Zhu 2603 is 11480 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot**: The average spot price in various regions shows a slight increase, and the sample - point slaughter volume has increased by 0.16% [2]. 油脂 industry - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8350 yuan/ton, Y2605 futures price is 7992 yuan/ton; the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8470 yuan/ton, P2605 futures price is 8486 yuan/ton; the spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil is 9560 yuan/ton, OI605 futures price is 9302 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 05 - 09 spread is 64, the palm oil 05 - 09 spread is 124, and the rapeseed oil 05 - 09 spread is 42 [4]. 玉米 industry - **Prices**: The price of Yu Mi 2603 is 2196 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2280 yuan/ton; the price of Yu Mi Dian Fen 2603 is 2494 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spreads**: The corn 3 - 5 spread is - 35, the corn starch 3 - 5 spread is - 44 [5]. 红枣 industry - **Prices**: The price of Hong Zao 2601 is 8800 yuan/ton, the price of Hong Zao 2605 (main contract) is 8890 yuan/ton [8]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of red dates is - 90, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 245 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures**: The price of Bai Tang 2601 is 5392 yuan/ton, the price of Bai Tang 2605 is 5262 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract price is 15.30 cents/pound [10]. - **Spot**: The Nanning spot price is 5340 yuan/ton, and the Kunming spot price is 5240 yuan/ton [10]. 棉花 industry - **Futures**: The price of Mian Hua 2605 is 14180 yuan/ton, the price of Mian Hua 2601 is 14210 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract price is 64.20 cents/pound [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15081 yuan/ton, and the CC Index: 3128B is 15271 yuan/ton [12]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ji Dan 01 contract is 3027 yuan/500KG, the price of Ji Dan 02 contract is 2947 yuan/500KG, and the egg - producing area price is 2.89 yuan/jin [14]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 2 spread of eggs is 125 [14]. 苹果 industry - **Prices**: The price of Ping Guo 2605 (main contract) is 9191 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 991 yuan/ton [16]. - **Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread of apples is 473, and the 5 - 10 spread is 1022 [16].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Rapeseed Industry Daily on December 24, 2025, covering futures, spot, upstream, industry, downstream, option markets, and industry news [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - Futures closing price (active contract): Rapeseed oil is 8,980 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan; Rapeseed meal is 2,344 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - Rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 42 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan; Rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is -56 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 196,266 lots, down 7,936 lots; Rapeseed meal is 630,650 lots, up 10,459 lots. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is -26,077 lots, up 2,154 lots; Rapeseed meal is -51,540 lots, down 1,748 lots. - Warehouse receipt quantity: Rapeseed oil is 3,866 sheets, down 10 sheets; Rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2] Spot Market - Spot price: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,420 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Average price: Rapeseed oil is 9,478.75 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Import cost price of rapeseed is 7,490.98 yuan/ton, down 42.3 yuan. - Spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton. - Oil - meal ratio is 3.78, up 0.03 [2] Substitute Spot Price - Spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; Rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread is 1,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - Spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,470 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Rapeseed - palm oil spot spread is 990 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - Spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,100 yuan/ton; Soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 680 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; Annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13,446 thousand tons. - Rapeseed import volume is 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; Imported rapeseed crushing profit is 439 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 million tons. - Imported rapeseed weekly operating rate is 0%. - Import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; Import volume of rapeseed meal is 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; Coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, down 0.02 million tons. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 million tons, down 2.4 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory is 17.91 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24 million tons, down 0.8 million tons. - Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 is 0.48 million tons, down 0.42 million tons; Rapeseed meal weekly提货量 is 0 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons. - Social consumer goods retail sales of catering is 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.45%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed meal is 16.54%, down 0.44%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.88%, up 0.2%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.61%. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for rapeseed oil is 14.5%, down 0.64%; Implied volatility of at - the - money put option for rapeseed oil is 14.52%, down 0.61%. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 15.5%, down 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.83%, down 0.11% [2] Group 3: Industry News - On December 23 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower but remained above recent lows and the downward trend since early December. The most active March rapeseed futures contract fell 9.30 Canadian dollars to settle at 603.20 Canadian dollars per ton. - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil's soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is watching China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Group 4: Market Views Rapeseed Meal - In the domestic market, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is still restricted, and oil mills are still shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports, the marginal supply increases slightly. There are also rumors that Cofco is inquiring about Canadian forward rapeseed, increasing the forward supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons, bettering the supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed and constraining its market price. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed meal futures showed a slight increase in oscillation and may maintain narrow - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to China's purchases of US soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil - High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil declined in the first 20 days and export data improved. However, the 2026 biofuel quota released by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has raised doubts about the implementation progress of the B50 plan. In the domestic market, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline, supporting its price. However, as Australian rapeseed arrives at ports and enters the crushing process, and the Sino - Canadian trade relationship eases and expectations rise, the forward supply pressure increases. In addition, the soybean oil supply is abundant, and its substitution advantage is good, so the demand for rapeseed oil remains mainly for rigid needs. Recently, rapeseed oil has oscillated at a low level [2] Group 5: Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions reported by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of Sino - Canadian trade relations [2]

成文日期: 20251219 研究品种:玉米淀 报告周期：日度 研究员：漆建华（从业资格号：F03099134；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0017731) 玉米淀粉期货日报 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 当日（20251219）玉米淀粉期货 cs2601 合约以震荡为主。今 日收盘价为 2502 元/吨,今日的收盘价和上一个交易日的收盘价对 比增加了 3 元/吨。从成交情况来看,今天的成交量为 94462 手, 和 上一个交易日对比降低了 13283 手,而持仓量方面,截止今天收盘, 持仓量为 79131 手，相较于上一交易日持仓量降低了 25104 手。 图：玉米淀粉期货日行情表 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 | 大连商品交易所_日行情_20251219 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 品种名称 合约 | | ...

成文日期：20251222 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:沪锡 研究员：曹柏泉 期货咨询证号（F03122015&Z0019820) 沪锡期货日报 1. 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 今日沪锡 2601 合约开盘以 344880 元/吨的高位直接上攻，受隔 夜伦锡收涨及宏观情绪偏暖带动、盘面快速触及日内最高点 347500 元/吨，最低下探至 335620 元/吨。今日成交量为 239865手。 图 1: 沪锡合约 2601 分时图 数据来源:国金期货-同花顺期货通 2 现货市场 今日沪锡 2601 合约收盘价为 340440 元/吨，上海 1#锡锭当日 均价 340600 元/吨，基差为 160 元/吨。 3 影响因素 3.1 产业资讯 当前整体宏观影响偏中性,锡市吸引大量投机资金入场推升价 日线 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 同时提醒期货交易者,期市有风险,入市需谨慎! 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 ...