当地时间周二，美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨 0.63% ，标普 500 指数涨 0.55% ，道指涨 0.25% 。其 中，纳指、标普 500 指数续创 2 月底以来收盘新高，道指创 3 月初以来收盘新高。 大型科技股多数上涨，英特尔涨近 8% ，创 2 个月以来最大单日涨幅；特斯拉涨逾 5% ，谷歌、 Meta 涨超 1% ，苹果、英伟达、亚马逊小幅上涨；奈飞跌超 1% ，微软小幅下跌。 热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.3% 。蔚来涨超 5% ，爱奇艺、新东方涨超 2% ；腾 讯音乐跌近 1% 。 美股的大幅上涨，主要得益于美国商务部长卢特尼克对外释放的积极信号，他表示中美贸易谈判进展顺 利。 发达国家中，由于贸易壁垒增加、创纪录的不确定性以及金融市场波动加剧，世界银行预计 2025 年美 国经济增速为 1.4% 。而今年 1 月份，该机构曾预测 2025 年美国经济将增长 2.3% 。 此外，世界银行预计今年将有近60%的发展中经济体面临经济放缓，比1月份的预测下调了0.3个百分 点。 而在当地时间周一， 特朗普政府向上诉法院辩称，美国国际贸易法院（ CIT ）取消对等关税的判决是 非法的 ...

上周五开始，美国加利福尼亚州洛杉矶市爆发反对美国政府严打非法移民的抗议。在加州街头乱象持续 之际，一些美国分析人士关注到移民问题与该国经济的紧密联系，并对当前移民减少可能冲击美国经济 表示担忧。(环球网) ...

墨西哥总统辛鲍姆：我们的立场是捍卫支持美国经济的勤奋墨西哥人。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A Reuters survey indicates that over 60% of economists predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice this year, with a potential cut as early as September [1] Economic Growth Forecast - Among the 105 economists surveyed, 59 believe the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in the next quarter [1] - The surveyed economists project that the U.S. economy will grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, consistent with May's predictions [1]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is mixed, with gold expected to experience a correction while silver shows potential for strength due to recent commodity rebounds and geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The expectation of a marginally accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is likely to support silver prices, with recommendations to maintain a bullish strategy in precious metals [1][2] - Technical indicators suggest that gold may face short-term corrections but still holds potential for upward movement, with support levels identified around $3300 to $3280 [3] Group 2 - The ongoing trade discussions between the U.S. and China have eased pessimism regarding the trade war, although uncertainty remains high in the macroeconomic environment [2] - Recent strong U.S. employment data has led to increased market speculation about a stronger dollar, which may negatively impact gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The gold-silver ratio has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential for silver to catch up after a period of divergence from gold prices [2]

可以预见的是，大量驱逐非法移民也正冲击美国经济。 美国一场针对非法移民的"搜捕战"，正不断发酵、升级成激烈的街头对峙。 据新华社报道，当地时间8日中午，在洛杉矶市中心联邦执法机构门前的抗议者与部署在该地的国民警 卫队人员发生冲突。国民警卫队人员发射催泪弹和橡皮子弹试图驱散抗议人群，但抗议者越来越多，从 最初数十人增加到1000人以上。 这是一场关于移民问题的三方博弈。据新华社报道，大量加利福尼亚州（以下简称"加州"）民众不满联 邦政府抓捕非法移民，在街头抗议。美国总统特朗普公开称，洛杉矶"被非法移民和犯罪分子侵占"，将 采取一切必要行动"解放"洛杉矶。20余名民主党州长联合发表声明称，特朗普向洛杉矶派遣州国民警卫 队是"令人担忧的权力滥用"，"既无效又危险"。 收紧移民签证、驱逐非法移民，一直是特朗普政府的核心政策议程。然而在美国，合法和非法移民为全 美贡献了近五分之一的劳动力，每年拉动实际GDP增长约0.1个百分点（美国国会预算办公室，即CBO 测算），大肆驱逐移民或将付出惨重的经济代价。 美国经济第一大州成风暴中心 "洛杉矶之乱"的直接导火索，在于美国联邦执法机构在南加州展开严打搜捕非法移民的行动。据央视 ...

一弦一柱思华年。 本文来自微信公众号： 无法可说 ，作者：郑渝川hiecy，题图来自：视觉中国 以下文章来源于无法可说 ，作者郑渝川hiecy 无法可说 . 加州州长钮森则表示， "联邦政府正在接管加州国民警卫队，并在洛杉矶部署 2000 名士兵——不是 因为执法力量不足，而是因为他们想要制造一场作秀……" （综合观察者网、环球网6月8日、6月9日 报道） 美国的移民政策多年来处于摇摆状态，但总体上偏向于默许。因为在民主党建制派的政纲中，宽待移 民符合 "政治正确"，是人道主义、支持自由的表现。而共和党建制派与商业、企业家阶层关系密 切，其实对于非法移民的态度更加暧昧，虽然嘴上说着反对，但实际上是鼓励移民进入的，因为借此 可以有效平抑通胀背景下的工资上涨冲动，会让劳工阶层进一步陷入博弈劣势。 我们前面的文章已经分析谈到过，特朗普第一任总统任期内与共和党建制派的合作，总体上是失败 的。而 2024 年的胜选，很大程度上有赖于特朗普与万斯为代表的右翼民粹主义势力的合作——万斯 的核心主张，就是不断描绘非法移民进入美国后，抢夺白人工人阶级的工作，导致后者陷入生活困 惑，所以应当保护白人工人阶级，驱逐非法移民。 我们 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significance of the recent phone call between Chinese leaders and U.S. President Trump, highlighting the delicate state of U.S.-China relations and the conditions for Trump's potential visit to China [1][3][5] - The phone call occurred at a critical moment, with ongoing tensions between the two nations, including U.S. pressure tactics such as AI chip supply restrictions and technology blockades [3][5] - The initiative for the call appeared to be with China, showcasing their diplomatic strategy and control over the negotiation process [3][5][7] Group 2 - The call signals a potential agenda for Trump's visit to China, contingent upon fulfilling certain agreements made between the two countries [5][9] - Trump's domestic challenges, including a declining manufacturing PMI index, have created pressure for him to seek dialogue with China as a means to alleviate economic concerns [5][7] - The future of U.S.-China relations may hinge on continued dialogue and cooperation, with the possibility of Trump needing to retract some of his confrontational policies to facilitate his visit [7][9]

王爷说财经讯：6月9日消息，虽说现在美国劳动市场表面上还算稳定，但特朗普那反复无常的贸易政策，可把商界折腾惨了。 这政策变来变去，企业们根本没法为未来制定投资计划呀！ 而且美联储（Fed）也很头疼。因为担心关税措施会让通货膨胀抬头，所以即便经济形势不太妙，也不敢轻易降息。 这下可好，外界都在担心美国经济在今年夏天会变得更加艰难，甚至有可能陷入衰退！ 另外，美国民众的消费需求也变得犹豫不决，不敢大手大脚花钱了。 对此，《华尔街日报》分析报道说，美国经济今年夏天不好过，这和安联经济顾问——伊尔艾朗 （Mohamed El-Erian）一周前预测的Fed将进入 「艰难的夏天」不谋而合。 更早之前，阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济师——史洛克（Torsten Slok）就预测经济要陷入衰退了。 实际上，王爷说财经注意到，好多专家和机构都把这经济问题的"锅"甩给特朗普的关税政策。 例如：研究顾问公司Beacon Economics创办合伙人之一桑博格（Christopher Thornberg）就分析评论称，美国经济走向全看特朗普怎么决策，可关 键是特朗普自己都不知道下一步要干啥，外界就更没法预测啦！ 现在大部分经济学家都觉 ...

Group 1 - The article criticizes the erratic trade policies under Trump's administration, highlighting the imposition of tariffs on over 180 countries, which has led to significant economic repercussions for the U.S. [2] - Trump's contradictory statements regarding tariffs, such as claiming to earn $2 billion daily from tariffs while acknowledging that high tariffs deter consumer purchases, illustrate the confusion and instability in U.S. trade policy [2] - The article points out that the chaotic trade policies have resulted in a loss of international credibility for the U.S., raising doubts about the predictability of American policies [2] Group 2 - In the realm of diplomacy, Trump's claims of mediating between India and Pakistan were refuted by India, leading to increased tensions and skepticism about U.S. diplomatic integrity [3] - Trump's handling of the Middle East, particularly his comments on Gaza, has been criticized for lacking responsibility and contributing to the deterioration of U.S. credibility in the region [3] - The article emphasizes that Trump's inconsistent diplomatic approach has exacerbated tensions in the Middle East and diminished trust in U.S. foreign policy [3] Group 3 - The article discusses the internal divisions within the U.S. due to Trump's policies, with various groups such as small businesses and farmers expressing dissatisfaction and conflict arising from conflicting interests [4] - It highlights the lack of coherence within the U.S. government, as evidenced by conflicting statements regarding Trump's proposals, which have led to confusion and disarray [4] - The internal discord is portrayed as a significant issue that undermines effective governance and policy implementation [4] Group 4 - The article describes Trump's use of bullying tactics in foreign relations, particularly against Iran and Egypt, which have resulted in increased international isolation for the U.S. [5] - It notes that the aggressive approach has prompted backlash from other nations, including the EU and allies like Canada and Australia, who have expressed their opposition [5] - The overall narrative suggests that Trump's actions are leading the U.S. towards chaos and decline, reminiscent of the turmoil seen in declining empires [5]