Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from August 8, 2025, interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to a 6% value-added tax (VAT), while interest income from bonds issued before this date will remain exempt from VAT until maturity [2][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Financial Implications - The restoration of VAT on bond interest income is expected to generate additional fiscal revenue, potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan, as the bond market has seen significant capital gains in recent years [5][6]. - The current stock of interest rate bonds is approximately 118 trillion yuan, while credit bonds stand at 51 trillion yuan, indicating a need for consistent tax policies across different bond types to avoid market distortions [5][6]. - The estimated short-term revenue from the new VAT policy could reach 337 million yuan, with long-term projections suggesting that revenue could approach 1 trillion yuan as the stock of government and financial bonds continues to grow [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Pricing Dynamics - The new tax policy may lead to a dual pricing mechanism for old and new bonds, with older bonds benefiting from tax exemptions, potentially driving their yields lower [7][8]. - In a buyer's market, newly issued bonds may need to offer higher coupon rates to attract investors, while in a seller's market, the tax burden may fall on investors, affecting the coupon rates of new issues [7]. - The tax rate for proprietary institutions is set at 6%, while asset management products will be taxed at 3%, which may pressure the interest income from bond assets, necessitating more cautious investment decisions [7]. Group 3: Impact on Individual Investors - The policy change will have minimal impact on individual investors, as small-scale taxpayers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan will remain exempt from VAT until December 31, 2027 [9].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 行业研究 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？ ——流动性观察第 114 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 6 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 月流动性展望——流动性观察第 110 期 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 109 期 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计独立焦企全样本：产能利用率 为73.69%增0.24%；焦炭日均产量64.81增0.21，焦炭库存73.62 减6.5，炼焦煤总库存992.73增7.35，焦煤可用天数11.5天增 0.05天。评：供应端，主产区前期部分换工作面及检修等因素 停限产的煤矿恢复生产，虽仍有部分煤矿供给受扰，但整体供 应有所回升。需求端，焦炭产量持稳，但市场观望情绪增加， 成交有所转弱，不过煤矿前期有预售行为，煤矿库存继续去 化。总体来看，国内供给恢复和蒙煤进口增量体现仍需时间， 上游煤矿去库周期仍在持续。情绪退潮后盘面价格回归合理区 间，短期基本面矛盾暂不凸显，预计盘面震荡调整运行。 【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格54泰铢/公斤，杯胶价格 47.4泰铢/公斤；海南胶水制全乳价格13100元/吨，制浓乳胶价 格14300元/吨；欧洲轮胎和橡胶制造商协会（ETRMA）发布市场 数据显示，2025年二季度欧洲替换胎市场销量同比下降3.5%至 5704.4万条。评：橡胶的整体供求全年预计偏紧。但短期内供 应可能在上量，原料的价格回落便是证明。需求也没有充分给 力。轮胎企业检修， ...

Core Insights - The public fund issuance market experienced a significant rebound in July, with a total of 149 new funds established, marking the highest number for the year, and a total issuance of 882.61 billion units, reflecting a 12.83% increase from June [2][3] Fund Issuance Overview - In July, bond funds led the market with 506.20 billion units issued, accounting for 57.35% of total issuance, while stock funds had 81 new funds with an issuance of 250.88 billion units, representing 28.43% of the total [2][3] - The average issuance per fund in July was 9.59 billion units, an increase of 2.54 billion units compared to June [2] Factors Driving Market Recovery - The recovery in the public fund issuance market is attributed to improved market conditions, favorable macroeconomic data, supportive regulatory policies, and ample liquidity [3] - The launch of innovative products like the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has significantly contributed to the growth in bond fund issuance, with these ETFs accounting for 75% of the total bond fund issuance in July [3][4] Performance of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs - The first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs reached a total scale of 1,082.14 billion yuan by the end of July, representing a growth of over 270% since their launch [4][5] - These ETFs accounted for nearly 21% of the total bond ETF market, which reached a historical high of 5,160.29 billion yuan with 39 ETFs in total [4] Market Dynamics and Ecosystem - The dual fund manager model adopted by some fund managers, such as Penghua Fund, enhances the management of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs by combining expertise in credit bonds and ETF management [6] - The optimization of market-making models has improved liquidity in the bond market, particularly for bond ETFs, creating a positive feedback loop between ETF liquidity and the underlying bond market [7] Private Fund Participation - Private funds are increasingly participating in the ETF market, with a focus on diversifying their asset allocation strategies through products like the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs [8] - The rapid growth of these ETFs has redefined the concept of "explosive growth" in the fund market, indicating a shift in how equity and bond markets can complement each other [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates a significant adjustment in the bond market, with credit bonds experiencing a larger decline compared to interest rate bonds, particularly in the period from July 18 to July 25, where 3Y and above interest rate bonds rose by 7-9 basis points, while credit bonds fell by 8-12 basis points [1][8][11] - The primary reasons for the market decline include a rebound in equity and commodity prices, a tightening of the funding environment, and increased redemption pressure [1][11][21] - Following the market adjustment, the report suggests that the credit market may enter a slow recovery phase, with the "stock-bond seesaw" effect being a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend [2][21][25] Group 2 - The report highlights a seasonal characteristic in credit bond net financing, with supply expected to rise from June to August, followed by a decline in September as corporate financing needs weaken [3][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the credit bond ETF market have led to a slowdown in growth, with some ETFs experiencing a slight contraction in scale [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes that the current credit market is relatively weak, with significant volatility and limited space for narrowing credit spreads, particularly in the short to medium term [3][27]

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction [2]. - Silver is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation due to the weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations [2]. - The 09 contract of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. - Crude oil should be treated with a volatile and bullish view [5]. - Methanol's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. - The rebar futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. - Iron ore is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [7]. - Gold remains volatile and bearish [8]. - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the logic of the bond market itself is unclear [8][9]. - Rapeseed meal is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. - Palm oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. - Short - term pig prices have adjusted, and short - term long positions can be considered; farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. - It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. - Rubber is relatively weak in the short term, and it is recommended to realize profits on short positions on dips [13]. - The L09 contract of LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen Anze increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1500 yuan/ton. The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons week - on - week to 248.3 tons. After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the fifth round started. The market speculation sentiment cooled, and coking coal hit the daily limit down. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend after a correction, with a support level of 980 yuan/ton [2]. Silver - The core PCE price index in the US in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.7%. The actual consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation. The short - term interest rate cut expectations weakened, which is bearish for silver. It is expected to be in a high - level volatile and slightly bearish situation [2]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1366 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable. The weekly output decreased by 3.32% week - on - week to 69.98 tons, and the total inventory of manufacturers decreased by 3.69% week - on - week to 179.58 tons. The float glass start - up rate is 75%, down 0.1% week - on - week. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 1285 for the 09 contract. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [4]. Crude Oil - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on a large number of individuals, entities, and vessels related to a shipping network. Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the oil market situation. The US crude oil production in May increased by 24,000 barrels per day, breaking the previous record. The market is concerned about the possible significant production increase by OPEC+ in September, and the international oil price corrected. The overall situation is volatile and bullish [5]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 2395 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 8.26 tons week - on - week to 80.84 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.53 tons week - on - week to 32.45 tons. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 2425. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [6]. Rebar - As of July 31, the weekly output decreased by 0.42% to 211.06 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.12% to 162.15 tons, the social inventory increased by 2.99% to 384.14 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 6.08% to 203.41 tons. Affected by bad weather, the terminal demand is low, and it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - From July 21 to July 27, the global iron ore shipment volume increased by 91.8 tons week - on - week to 3200.9 tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased by 203.9 tons week - on - week to 2755.9 tons. Affected by the policy expectations and market sentiment, the current fundamentals are neutral to strong, and it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, with a support level of 750 yuan/ton [7]. Gold - The US will resume collecting "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1. The tariff negotiations are ongoing, but the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak. Gold remains volatile and bearish, and attention should be paid to the US dollar trend [8]. Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds - China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The economic sentiment declined, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be increased. The stock market's short - term upward momentum weakened, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is favorable for the bond market. The bond market's own logic is unclear [8]. Short - Term Treasury Bonds - On July 31, most money market interest rates rose. The increase in money market interest rates is bearish for short - term bonds. The short - term upward momentum of the stock market weakened, which may be favorable for the bond market. The stock - bond seesaw effect is the main logic of the bond market [9]. Rapeseed Meal - As of July 27, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 72.78% week - on - week to 5.51 tons. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are relatively low, but the demand is weak, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is high. It is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [9]. Palm Oil - In July 2025, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [10]. Pig - On July 31, the national average pork price decreased by 1.1% to 20.45 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the slaughter of farmers decreased, and the price - support intention increased. The short - term price adjustment is in place, and short - term long positions can be considered. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [12]. PTA - The polyester market inventory is concentrated in 16 - 26 days. The PTA supply is expected to be loose, and the downstream polyester load may continue to decline with limited space. The PX spot tension has eased, and the PX futures price is expected to be volatile and bearish. It is advisable to wait and see for PTA [12]. Rubber - The Thai raw material prices continued to fall. The Hainan raw material output increased seasonally. The annual natural rubber supply and demand are expected to be tight, but the short - term supply may increase, and the demand is not strong. The short - term situation is relatively weak [13]. LLDPE - The mainstream price in North China decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 7363 yuan/ton. The weekly output decreased by 1.08% week - on - week to 27.25 tons, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 17.44% week - on - week to 14.25 tons. The L09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a resistance level of 7385. It is recommended to wait and see [14].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in value and trading activity, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing macroeconomic policy adjustments by the government [3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 31, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.45%, with a latest price of 111.18 yuan, and has accumulated a 9.42% increase over the past year [3]. - The ETF has a trading volume of 26.49 billion yuan, indicating active market participation, with an average daily trading volume of 43.08 billion yuan over the past week [3]. Policy Insights - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on effective implementation and maximizing policy effects [3]. - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while maintaining a neutral stance on interest rate cuts [4]. Fund Metrics - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has reached a new high in size at 14.988 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 1.35 million [4]. - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan, totaling 6.061 billion yuan in average daily net inflows [4]. Historical Performance - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved a net value increase of 9.47%, ranking 7th out of 414 index bond funds, placing it in the top 1.69% [5]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and saw an expanded decline, while the ChiNext Index reversed its early 1% gain, indicating a clear "stock-bond seesaw" effect [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Huachuang Securities believes that there are no signs of a trend reversal in the economic fundamentals, and the central bank's stance remains supportive, suggesting no trend adjustment risk in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The Credit Bond ETF (511200) includes large-scale, AAA-rated bonds listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with 245 underlying bonds covering a maturity range of 0-30 years, reflecting a comprehensive yield curve [2] - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF (551550) selects AAA-rated and above bonds from technology innovation companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, indicating a strong quality of underlying assets, with state-owned enterprises accounting for about 99% of the issuance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the ten-year government bond ETFs (511260) and government bond ETFs (511010) experienced a certain degree of increase on July 30, signaling a slowdown in the recent downward trend [1] - The bond market is currently under pressure from market factors, with a "stock-bond seesaw" effect where stock performance is strong while the bond market is under pressure, although the macroeconomic reality still favors the bond market [3] - The nominal economic pressure primarily lies in prices, with PPI showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% in the first half of the year, which is lower than the expected full-year central tendency of -2.2% for 2024 [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic state is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, suggesting that there may be significant allocation opportunities in the bond market compared to the stock market [5] - The ten-year government bond ETFs (511260) and government bond ETFs (511010) are recommended for continued investor attention due to the mismatch between strong expectations and weak realities [5]