Core Viewpoint - Nintendo's stock price has been rising, reaching a market capitalization of over $100 billion, making it the seventh largest company in Japan, driven by the upcoming launch of Switch 2 and industry cycle influences [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nintendo's market capitalization has surpassed $100 billion, making it the seventh largest company in Japan, following Fast Retailing [1]. - The pre-orders for Switch 2 have shown strong market potential, with 2.2 million pre-order applications in Japan [1]. - The Switch 2 is expected to launch with 6 to 8 million units available, marking one of the largest launches in gaming history [2]. Group 2: Product Features and Pricing - Switch 2 features significant upgrades, including a larger screen (7.9 inches), improved resolution (1080P), and support for 4K output [1][2]. - The pricing for Switch 2 has increased, with the Hong Kong version priced at 3,450 HKD (approximately 3,100 RMB) and the US version at $449.99 (approximately 3,250 RMB), representing a 50% increase from the original Switch [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Nintendo's financial results show a decline in operating income and sales, with total sales revenue of 956.2 billion JPY, down 31.4% year-on-year, and net profit of 237.1 billion JPY, down 41.9% [2]. - Hardware sales for the Switch have decreased by 30.6% year-on-year, with game sales down 24.4% to 123.98 million units [2]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - The increase in pricing for Switch 2 and its games has sparked discussions about affordability, with game prices rising to between $69.99 and $79.99 [3]. - The new tariffs imposed by the US government on imports from China and Vietnam could further increase the price of Switch 2 in the US market, potentially affecting its competitiveness during the holiday shopping season [3]. - Nintendo has diversified its production locations to reduce reliance on China, with significant production now occurring in Vietnam [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, in May, the overall de - stocking of PX and PTA continues, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to weaken as polyester reduces its load. PTA processing fees have fully recovered, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding PXN at low prices and the opportunity of shrinking PTA processing fees at high prices in the long - term [2]. - For MEG, the marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited due to hidden inventories. The far - month supply - demand mainly focuses on the changes in imports and ethane - based production benefits under the influence of subsequent tariffs [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the future, but the futures processing fee is not high, and the price is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are the relatively low absolute level of national explicit inventory, the slight rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price, and the state of stockpiling. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.9, the price of PTA internal - market spot remained unchanged, the PTA processing difference decreased by 58, and the polyester gross profit increased by 73 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device was under maintenance, Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton device was under maintenance, and Taihua's 1.2 million - ton device was restarted [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: PX and PTA are expected to continue de - stocking in May, but the far - month supply - demand will weaken as polyester reduces its load [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the MEG internal - market price decreased by 26, and the MEG coal - based profit decreased by 26 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Shanghai Petrochemical's 380,000 - ton device was restarted, and Guizhou Qianxi's 300,000 - ton device was under maintenance [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The marginal situation is in the de - stocking stage, but the port de - stocking amplitude may be limited, and the far - month supply - demand depends on tariff - related factors [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: The daily change on May 6 showed that the short - fiber profit increased by 48, and the pure - polyester yarn profit increased by 15 [2]. - **Device Maintenance**: No device maintenance information was provided this week [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: There is still pressure for inventory accumulation, but the futures processing fee is not high, and it is supported by the low spread between raw and recycled materials [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of US - dollar Thai standard spot increased by 30, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 240 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The main contradictions are the low explicit inventory, the rebound of cup - lump rubber price, and the stockpiling situation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) decreased by $56, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 265, and the price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 175 [6]. - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at - 79, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by 55 [6].

Group 1 - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported a revenue that exceeded expectations for the first quarter and provided a second-quarter revenue guidance that also surpassed forecasts, resulting in a stock increase of approximately 2% [1] - Super Micro Computer (Supermicro) experienced a decline of about 4% in its stock price after the company lowered its full-year sales forecast and acknowledged the impact of tariffs imposed by former President Trump [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock rose approximately 6% as analysts from JPMorgan noted that the company's decision to lower its earnings guidance for the year has already been reflected in its stock price [1]

研究中心能化团队 2025/05/06 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 4/24 66.6 582 744 4350 6280 94.19 162.0 225 -3 86.0 77.7 122028 15 0.60 2025/0 4/25 66.9 582 752 4415 6265 91.59 170.0 247 -63 86.2 78.9 111956 20 0.75 2025/0 4/28 65.9 578 758 4585 6395 95.25 180.0 383 -86 86.2 77.7 109868 80 0.60 2025/0 4/29 64.3 572 756 4540 6420 101.35 184.0 358 -24 86.2 77.7 105532 90 0.35 2025/0 4/30 60.2 546 737 4555 6420 101.08 191.0 358 -37 86 ...

证券研究报告 关税冲击与应对 ——宏观经济2025年中期投资策略 姓名 何宁（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522110002 邮箱：hening@kysec.cn 2025年5月 核心观点 一、对等关税的影响 1、特朗普加征关税的底层逻辑是减少贸易逆差、促进美国制造业回流。 2、虽然对关税谈判不能太乐观，但若美国经济持续下行、通胀预期持续升温，将迫使美国选择谈判，因此也无需太悲观。美国债 券市场的压力与波动，也会对特朗普政府产生压力，加速其谈判行动。 3、美联储政策决策方面，美国4月新增非农就业再超预期，美联储或保持观望，短期难降息。 4、关税对我国的影响方面，测算54%-145%的情形下，对我国GDP的冲击在1-2个百分点区间。短期看，4月PMI数据显示关税对制 造业扰动初步显现。后续重视关税扰动的两个重要阶段：第一阶段为5-6月；第二阶段为7-8月。 二、经济数据的隐忧 隐忧1：出口增速下滑。4月出口同比或回落至+0.6%左右；2025年全年出口同比或回落至-8%左右。 隐忧2：地产成交走弱，房价修复可能暂缓。中国偿债比率改善至10.9%，需要继续下行。 隐忧3：价格水平偏弱。多因素共振导致PPI持续下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data exceeded market expectations, indicating a steady expansion in the labor market, but signs of cooling are emerging, suggesting potential future increases in the unemployment rate [1][5][17]. Employment Data Summary - In April, the U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 138,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.2% and a labor participation rate of 62.6% [1][5]. - The three-month moving average for job additions stands at 155,000, reflecting a stable growth trend [5]. - Job growth is concentrated in sectors experiencing labor shortages, with education and healthcare contributing 70,000 jobs, trade adding 29,000, and leisure and hospitality contributing 24,000, accounting for 69.5% of the total job additions [5][6]. Signs of Labor Market Cooling - Job vacancy rates have declined, with the vacancy rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 4.3%, indicating a potential shift towards equilibrium in the labor market [8][10]. - The ratio of job vacancies to job seekers has decreased to 1.03, suggesting that the labor market is nearing a balance between supply and demand [8]. - Wage growth has softened, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year, indicating a shift from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market" [12][14]. Unemployment Structure and Trends - The number of permanent jobless individuals surged by 105,000 to 1.915 million, while the number of individuals re-entering the labor market increased by 60,000 to 2.236 million, reflecting a deteriorating unemployment structure [15][17]. - Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 18,000 to 241,000, significantly above seasonal levels, indicating rising unemployment [15][16]. Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - The combination of tariff impacts on corporate profits and household finances may lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts mid-year [17][19]. - Long-term, the strict immigration policies may affect labor supply, and the anticipated decline in interest rates could support economic stability, suggesting that any rise in unemployment may be relatively moderate [17][19]. Market Strategy - The company maintains a cautious approach towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with entry points set at 4.4% for 10-year bonds and 4.1% for 5-year bonds, while also anticipating a potential technical rebound in the U.S. dollar in Q2 [3][19]. - The market's reaction to the strong employment data indicates a belief in the resilience of the labor market, with expectations of three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [18][19].

宏观、行业及公司点评 全球市场观察 宏观经济 美国经济 - 就业仍然稳健降低近期降息概率 2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 美国 4 月新增非农就业 17.7 万人，超出市场预期，显示美国就业市场仍然稳 健。时薪增速延续下降，已基本回到与 2%通胀目标相符的水平，预示核心服 务通胀将保持回落。每周工时与职位空缺数/失业人口比已低于疫情前水平， 显示劳动力市场供需平衡，预示目前的就业市场应对关税冲击的缓冲更小。 失业率保持在 4.2%，就业人数连续 2 月反弹。 数据公布后市场预期 6 月不降息的概率从 42%升至 69%，全年降息幅度从 91bp 降至 78bp。由于就业市场仍然稳健，关税可能推升近期通胀，我们预 计美联储 5 月和 6 月可能保持政策利率不变。由于市场对政策利率预期更加 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 22,505 | 1. ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 资料来源：Wind, 招银国际环球市场 (15) (10) (5) 0 5 10 15 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 失业率(左轴) 非农就业增速(右轴) (%) (%) (1,000) (800) (600) (400) (200) 0 200 400 600 800 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 政府 服务 商品 月均新增就业(千人) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 ...

证券研究报告 | 海外市场点评 2025 年 05 月 06 日 [Table_Main] 海外市场点评 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 积极信号有望释放 ——美联储 5 月利率决议前瞻 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 背景：美东时间 5 月 7 日（北京时间 5 月 8 日凌晨），美联储将公布 5 月利率决 议。从目前的 CME 联邦基金期货模型来看，市场预期 5 月按兵不动的概率为 95%， 由于美国经济尚具有一定韧性，关税带来的影响目前从就业与通胀角度看尚不显 著，联储预计会保留足够的政策灵活性，以应对未来的较大不确定性。 焦点：联储如何评价经济形势？关注鲍威尔发布会言论。当前美国经济数据显示出 温和转弱的特征，但尚未显示出衰退迹象。联邦政府和从事 ToG 相关业务企业在 4 月的大规模裁员并未明显体现在非农数据上，PMI 数据也维持较强势的状态，但 后续谈判进度存在较大的不确定性，一旦谈判 ...

Group 1 - Philips has lowered its profit margin expectations for 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, estimating a net effect of €250 million to €300 million (approximately $283 million to $340 million) [1] - The company's Q1 sales amounted to €4.1 billion, a 2% year-over-year decline on a comparable basis, but above analysts' average expectation of €4.02 billion [1] - The U.S. is Philips' largest market, expected to account for about 40% of its 2024 sales and one-third of its tax payments [1] Group 2 - Philips has adjusted its full-year core profit expectations, now forecasting an adjusted EBITA margin between 10.8% and 11.3%, down from the previous forecast of 11.8% to 12.3% [1] - Despite the decline in sales, the company maintains its expectation for comparable sales growth of 1% to 3% for the year [1] - Strong performance in the North American market has offset sales declines in China, resulting in a 2% increase in comparable order volume [1] Group 3 - Analysts expect that once tariffs are implemented, companies may have to absorb related costs in the short term [2] - Philips paid €38 million in tariffs in the U.S. last year and plans to mitigate tariff impacts through relief measures and the Nairobi Protocol [2] - Since June 2021, Philips has been working to rebuild investor confidence due to claims related to defective sleep apnea devices, which have pressured the company's stock price [2]