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2026年积极财政政策怎么干,扩内需、稳楼市、化解地方债务
今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富,赤字率提高到4%左右,对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元;发行超长期 特别国债1.3万亿元,支持"两重""两新"工作;发行超长期特别国债5000亿元,支持国有大型商业银行 补充资本;安排新增地方专项债4.4万亿元,用于投资建设、土地收储、消化地方拖欠企业账款等;四 季度安排使用5000亿元地方债限额,用于化解存量债务和投资建设等。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年,部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当前内需恢 复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等,2026年要推动释放潜在经济增速,须实 施更加积极的宏观政策,尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 支持全方位扩大内需 财政部数据显示,1—10月份,全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元,同比增长0.8%。其中,税收收入 15.34万亿元,同比增长1.7%。1—10月份,全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元,同比增长2%。 与此同时,1—10月份,全国政府性基金预算收入3.45万亿元,同比下降2.8%。其中,国有土地使用权 出让收入约2.5万亿元,同比下降7.4%。1—10月份,全国政府性基金支出8. ...
湖北“十五五”规划建议:深化国有“三资”管理改革 显著提升“三资”配置效率和使用效益
人民财讯12月5日电,中共湖北省委关于制定全省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。 其中提到,落实积极财政政策,加强财政科学管理,增强财政可持续性。强化财政资源统筹,深化国 有"三资"管理改革,统筹盘活存量和做优增量,畅通分类处置与规范利用路径,持续完善监管制度,显 著提升国有"三资"配置效率和使用效益;坚持和落实"两个毫不动摇",促进各种所有制经济优势互补、 共同发展。深化国资国企改革,增强国有企业核心功能,推动国资国企做强做优做大。深化央地合作, 支持在鄂央企高质量发展。 ...
南财早新闻|摩尔线程今日登陆A股,沐曦股份开启申购
摩尔线程今日正式登陆科创板,自上市之日起纳入科创成长层。摩尔线程此次上市募资80亿元,将投向 公司新一代自主可控的AI训推一体芯片、图形芯片、AI SoC芯片等三大核心研发项目。今年6月出炉的 科创板"1+6"政策体系,为更多技术突破型、暂未盈利的"硬科技"企业开辟了上市通道。 同日,另一家国产GPU公司沐曦股份将开启申购,发行价格为104.66元/股,对应的2024年摊薄后静态 市销率为56.35倍。按此发行价格,预计上市时市值约为418.74亿元。 1、商务部新闻发言人4日表示,中国政府依法依规开展稀土相关物项出口管制工作。只要是用于民用用 途的、合规的出口申请,中国政府都及时予以了批准。 2、商务部新闻发言人4日就欧盟终止诉中国世贸争端案件答记者问时表示,欧方决定终止案件审理是正 确的选择。 3、针对有媒体报道称,日本首相高市早苗3日表示"理解和尊重"中国政府关于"台湾是中国领土不可分 割的一部分"的立场,外交部发言人4日回应:有关报道不准确。高市早苗用"立场没有变化"来敷衍、搪 塞,中方对此不能接受。 4、市场监管总局发布实施外卖平台推荐性国家标准《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》,推动解决"幽灵外 卖", ...
2026年积极财政政策怎么干?扩内需、稳楼市、化解地方债务
与此同时,1-10月份,全国政府性基金预算收入3.45万亿元,同比下降2.8%。其中,国有土地使用权出 让收入约2.5万亿元,同比下降7.4%。1-10月份,全国政府性基金支出8.09万亿元,同比增长15.4%。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年,部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当前内需恢 复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等,2026年要推动释放潜在经济增速,须实 施更加积极的宏观政策,尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 支持全方位扩大内需 财政部数据显示,1-10月份,全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元,同比增长0.8%。其中,税收收入 15.34万亿元,同比增长1.7%。1-10月份,全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元,同比增长2%。 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道今年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%,全年有望实现5%左右的增 长,背后很重要的支撑在于更加积极的财政政策。 今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富,赤字率提高到4%左右,对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元;发行超长期 特别国债1.3万亿元,支持"两重""两新"工作;发行超长期特别国债5000亿元,支持 ...
前三季度政府债供给创高峰,化债加快推进
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-12-03 11:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds reached a record high for the same period, with the 2 - trillion - yuan implicit debt replacement nearing completion. The fourth - quarter government bond supply pressure is expected to decline, and the incremental fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone, with ample room for future action. The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, and efforts will continue to be made to resolve debts while promoting development and build a long - term government debt management mechanism [2][32][34]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Local Government Bond - Related Policy Review - Fiscal policy: A more active fiscal policy is implemented, with a larger - scale government bond issuance plan. The fiscal deficit rate is increased to about 4%, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan. The planned issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is 1.3 trillion yuan, and special treasury bonds of 500 billion yuan are to support state - owned banks in replenishing core tier - one capital. The new local government special bond quota is 4.4 trillion yuan. The government also promotes the early issuance and use of bonds and guides and drives social capital [4][5][6]. - Debt replacement: The implicit debt replacement policy is accelerated, with a 6 - trillion - yuan local government debt quota approved to replace the stock implicit debt from 2024 - 2026, 2 trillion yuan per year. Additionally, 80 billion yuan is allocated from new local government special bonds annually for five consecutive years for debt resolution. The debt - risk - high area list is dynamically adjusted [7][8]. - Debt management: The local debt monitoring system and government debt risk indicator system are improved, and the special bond management mechanism is optimized. Penalties for illegal debt - raising and false debt - resolution are strengthened, and the reform and transformation of local government financing platforms are promoted [9]. 3.2 Review of the Local Government Bond Market in the First Three Quarters of 2025 - **Issuance overview**: In the first three quarters of 2025, 1,816 local government bonds were issued, totaling 8.53 trillion yuan, a 27.60% increase year - on - year. Special bonds accounted for 75.96% of new issuances. New bonds were issued at 4.35 trillion yuan, and refinancing bonds at 4.18 trillion yuan, with 1.99 trillion yuan of special refinancing special bonds for implicit debt replacement. The net financing was 6.15 trillion yuan, a 54.24% increase. The issuance of land reserve special bonds accelerated in Q3. The issuance of bonds with a term of 10 years or more increased, and the weighted average issuance term was 15.63 years. Economically active regions and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot areas were the main issuers of new special bonds, while key provinces mainly issued refinancing bonds [13][19][20]. - **Interest rate and spread analysis**: In Q3 2025, the average issuance interest rate of local government bonds rebounded due to multiple factors. The average issuance interest rates in Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 1.94%, 1.85%, and 2.01% respectively. The spread widened in the first three quarters of 2025, and there were significant differences in the spread trends among provinces [22][23]. - **Investment areas of local government special bonds**: In the first three quarters of 2025, infrastructure was the main focus of special bond funds. The top three investment areas were urban infrastructure, transportation infrastructure construction, and urban - rural development, accounting for 51.95% of the total. Land reserve special bonds for idle land recovery projects restarted, with an issuance amount accounting for 7.01% [29]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Local Government Bonds - **Issuance outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the government bond issuance will enter the final stage, with reduced supply pressure. The new local government debt quota for 2026 is expected to be issued more quickly. The planned issuance of local government bonds in Q4 is 1.26 trillion yuan, including 730 billion yuan of new special bonds [32]. - **Fiscal policy outlook**: The fiscal policy will maintain its previous positive tone in Q4, with funds tilted towards large economic provinces. The government will strengthen the supervision of relevant funds and project lifecycle management [34]. - **Interest rate outlook**: The bond market interest rate is expected to fluctuate downward within a certain range, affected by multiple factors such as monetary policy, market sentiment, and policy changes [35]. - **Debt management outlook**: The principle of resolving debts while promoting development will be adhered to, and efforts will be made to build a long - term government debt management mechanism. The government will continue to implement a package of debt - resolution measures, strengthen debt management, and improve the performance of bond fund use [36][37].
日本股市狂泻,债务远超警戒线,高市嚣张喊话全球,日方急求访华
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 08:07
然而,高市早苗并没有认真看待这一问题,反而向全球发出了嚣张的喊话,要求各国来日本投资。她甚至模仿《进击的巨人》中的台词,发出都给我闭嘴! 把钱都投到我这儿来!的强硬言辞。她的本意是希望各国,尤其是沙特等国家,能够加大对日本的投资。然而,这种言论既不合时宜,也不合理。国际资本 总是以盈利为导向,只有当投资者评估后发现,在日本市场能获得更多的回报时,才会选择投资。而且,当前中日之间的紧张关系使得国际社会对日本可能 在台湾问题上采取军事行动产生了担忧。中方也已经明确警告日本,若在台湾问题上越线,整个日本可能都成为战场。在这种情况下,谁会愿意冒险在日本 投资呢?高市早苗的言论或许能欺骗国内民众,但难以瞒得过国际资本的敏锐眼光。事实上,日本政界和经济界也明白,高市早苗的言辞不过是盲目的自 信。根据日媒的报道,日本经济团体联合会会长筒井义信以及跨党派组织日中友好议员联盟的事务局长小渊优子,已经先后向中方提出了希望尽快访华的请 求。 日本经济正面临多重困难,包括人口老龄化、物价持续上涨以及政府债务高企等,这些问题让日本的经济走到了历史的十字路口。如果日本无法摆脱通缩困 境,无法实现产业升级,经济政策也难以正常化,那么日本的 ...
财政政策持续用力更加强劲
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 23:09
支持实施提振消费专项行动,促进扩大有效投资,持续增加民生投入……今年以来,我国靠前实施更加积极 的财政政策,打好政策"组合拳",有力支撑经济回升向好。下一步,将进一步发挥积极财政政策作用,用好 政策空间、保持支出强度,助力"十五五"开好局、起好步。 有力促消费扩投资 各省份地方政府债券发行工作在年末陆续迎来收官。近日,江苏省成功发行2025年第十批政府债券635亿元。 至此,2025年度江苏省政府债券发行工作圆满结束,全年共发行地方政府债券7392亿元。福建省全年累计发 行地方政府债券3344.49亿元,切实发挥对扩投资、稳增长的积极作用。 统计显示,今年前10个月,全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元,增长0.8%,累计增幅稳步回升;全国一般公 共预算支出22.58万亿元,同比增长2%,重点领域支出得到有力保障。各级财政持续加快债券资金使用,地 方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等资金共支出4.54万亿元,向经济发展注入强劲动力。 近期,各地陆续开始发放育儿补贴。按照今年7月发布的国家育儿补贴制度实施方案,自2025年1月1日起,对 3周岁以下婴幼儿按每孩每年3600元的国家基础标准发放育儿补贴,中央财政按比例 ...
刘元春最新发言:世界经济的弹性与韧性超乎预测,这是为什么呢?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 13:52
Core Viewpoint - The resilience and elasticity of the global economy are stronger than expected, with China playing a crucial role in economic globalization [3][4][5]. Economic Growth Outlook - Initial predictions indicated a decline in global economic growth by 0.5 percentage points, from 3.3% to approximately 2.8%, but the actual decline has been less severe [9]. - Global trade growth was expected to fall below GDP growth due to U.S. tariff policies, with a projected drop of 1.8 percentage points; however, trade data from January to October shows a growth rate of 3.6%, surpassing last year's 3.5% [9][10]. - Inflation expectations were for an average price increase of 0.2% to 0.3%, but prices have instead decreased by 0.1 percentage points, indicating strong resilience in global supply chains [4][9]. Trade Dynamics - Despite a significant drop in trade with the U.S. (estimated at around 20%), China's overall trade with the world has increased by 6.2%, with the share of global trade rising from 12.8% in 2020 to approximately 15% this year [10][11]. - The growth in bilateral trade with ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America has been exceptional, showcasing China's ability to create new opportunities in global supply chains and technology environments [10]. Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Many countries have adopted proactive fiscal and monetary policies to counteract U.S. trade policies, with global public debt reaching 95% of GDP, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from previous years [5][10]. - Germany's trade deficit has reached 300 million euros, exceeding the EU's 3% limit, highlighting the widespread fiscal challenges faced globally [10]. Technological Innovation - Significant growth in AI investment, particularly in the U.S., is noted, with a projected increase of nearly 90% this year following an 18% increase last year [5][10]. - Temporary factors such as trade and investment front-loading and inventory management strategies may introduce certain risks [10]. Future Economic Conditions - Key factors for future economic development include potential new proposals under the Trump 2.0 tariff policy, the sustained competitive advantage from China's technological innovations, and whether new technologies can translate into short-term economic growth [11][12]. - The ability of countries to implement structural reforms and effectively address fiscal deficits in a disordered environment is also critical for future economic trends [12].
深度专题|2026年:财政货币政策展望
申万宏源宏观· 2025-12-02 07:33
政策回顾:财政货币政策协同支撑2025年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征,充分体现对经济的托底意图。 2025年财政 融资规模创历史新高,政府债净融资达14.36万亿元,占GDP比例预计为10.2%。2025年前三季度广义财 政支出同比增长7.9%,支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置,配合四季度灵活出台的增量政策,凸 显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调,注重预期引导与传导疏通,操作更趋精准审慎。 2025年央行保持流动性 合理充裕,资金利率整体处于较低水平;降息次数和幅度较2024年更为谨慎,政策节奏前置,社融增速 呈现"前高后稳"。同时,2025年央行加强市场沟通,支持资本市场稳定,并通过多种手段缓解银行息差 压力,提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化,国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。 2025年央行分阶 段调整国债买卖操作,展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商业银行增强其资本实 力,助力货币政策传导畅通。两类举措共同提升政策的整体效能。 财政政策展望:2026年或成为全面发力、积极作为的关键一年 "十五五" ...
蓝佛安:发挥积极财政政策作用|政策与监管
清华金融评论· 2025-12-02 01:55
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies to support China's modernization and national rejuvenation, highlighting the need for reform and innovation in fiscal management [1][2]. Summary by Sections Implementation of Proactive Fiscal Policies - The article outlines the necessity of proactive fiscal policies as a key tool for macroeconomic regulation, aiming to stabilize total demand and optimize economic structure through various fiscal instruments [2][3]. Achievements of Proactive Fiscal Policies - Significant outcomes from proactive fiscal policies include an average economic growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024 and the creation of over 12 million urban jobs annually. Public budget expenditures are projected to exceed 136 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, supporting major national strategies [4]. Theoretical Insights on Fiscal Policy - The article discusses the evolution of fiscal policy understanding, emphasizing the balance between counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and the integration of supply-side and demand-side management to foster a dynamic equilibrium in the economy [5]. Challenges and Strategic Focus - The article identifies complex domestic and international challenges, including geopolitical tensions and economic structural changes, necessitating a robust fiscal response to enhance policy effectiveness and support high-quality development [7]. Key Principles for Fiscal Management - The article outlines several principles for effective fiscal management, including: - Upholding the Party's leadership in fiscal matters [7]. - Prioritizing public welfare and investing in human resources [8]. - Balancing market efficiency with government intervention [8]. - Focusing on domestic economic circulation and addressing structural barriers [9]. - Ensuring safety and sustainability in fiscal policies [9]. Future Directions for Fiscal Policy - The article calls for comprehensive strategies to expand domestic demand, support technological independence, improve living standards, and promote regional development, while also enhancing fiscal governance and risk management [10][11][12][13].