瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，仅上证指数微幅上涨。四期指集体下跌，中小盘股 强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，为2025年最后一个交易周，市场交投相对平淡。12月27日-28日召 开的全国财政工作会议，在宏观层面对市场起到托底；12月31日公布的国内三大PMI指数均 回到扩张区间，经济基本面有回暖迹象，但由于元旦假期将至，部分投资者选择空仓过节， 市场对经济数据的反应并不明显。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周明显回升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周三涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.83 | -0.61 | 4599. ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus for 2026 is on the risks associated with the proactive fiscal policy of the government led by Prime Minister Kishi, emphasizing the need to ensure market trust amidst growing caution [2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The first challenge is the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting scheduled for January 22-23, where Governor Ueda is expected to maintain a rate hike stance, continuing the trend of rising interest rates [2][4]. - Despite raising the policy interest rate to 0.75% in December 2025, the yen remains weak, trading around 155 yen per dollar, indicating a persistent depreciation trend [4]. - If the Bank of Japan cannot reverse the yen's depreciation expectations, the implications of potential currency intervention will be scrutinized [4]. Group 2: Fiscal Discipline Adjustments - The second challenge involves adjusting fiscal discipline, with the government planning to revise fiscal balance indicators in January, moving away from annual surplus targets to a multi-year assessment [6]. - The previous administration set 2026 as the deadline for achieving a primary balance surplus, but the current government may introduce alternative indicators, focusing on the ratio of government debt to GDP [6]. Group 3: Economic Policy Framework - The third challenge is the "Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform" (commonly known as the "Bone-Strong Policy"), which is expected to reflect a strong proactive fiscal stance following the approval of the 2026 budget [7]. - Prime Minister Kishi has emphasized responsible fiscal management, indicating that the government will not irresponsibly issue bonds or reduce taxes, although there are concerns within the ruling party about excessive fiscal stimulus [7]. - The internal divisions within the ruling party regarding fiscal policy could pose risks to Kishi's already fragile government, making it crucial to propose a growth strategy that is acceptable to the market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and ensuring effective allocation to support economic growth and social welfare. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Goals - In 2026, the fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, expanding the fiscal spending envelope to ensure necessary expenditure levels [6][7] - The fiscal work in 2025 achieved significant results, with general public budget revenue reaching 20,051.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and expenditures at 24,853.8 billion yuan, up 1.4% [2][3] - The total public budget expenditure for 2025 was 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [2] Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The six key tasks for 2026 include promoting domestic demand, supporting effective investment, enhancing technological and industrial innovation, advancing urban-rural integration, strengthening social welfare, and facilitating green transformation [7][8] - A core strategy will be to boost consumption through targeted fiscal actions, including subsidies for replacing consumer goods [7] - Increased fiscal investment in technology and innovation will be prioritized to foster new growth drivers [7] Group 3: Fiscal Tools and Reforms - The issuance of special bonds reached 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, an increase of 500 billion yuan from 2024, supporting over 10,000 infrastructure projects [3] - Tax reforms have made significant progress, with a 98.8% increase in sales of tax refund goods for foreign travelers from January to November [3] - The government will optimize the combination of bond tools and enhance the effectiveness of transfer payments to local governments [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][12] Core Insights - The State Grid Corporation of China has emphasized increasing investment in the power grid, particularly in ultra-high voltage and smart grid sectors, to support domestic demand and stabilize growth [1][3] - The Ministry of Finance has indicated that a more proactive fiscal policy will continue into 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing expenditure structure to boost domestic demand [2][3] - The domestic power grid investment is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with significant projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project starting in July 2025, and increasing demand for hydropower transmission from Southwest China [2][7] Summary by Sections Investment Outlook - The report anticipates that the ultra-high voltage equipment and smart grid upgrades will benefit from the increased investment and fiscal policies [2][7] - Companies to watch include Pinggao Electric and Guodian NARI [2][7] Investment Data - As of January to November 2025, the completed investment in the power grid reached 560.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while power source investment was 850 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2% [3]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭北京报道2025年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，尽管四季度经济面临下 行压力，但是全年有望实现5%左右的增长目标。 具体来看，尽管面临国际经贸斗争，2025年1-11月份我国货物出口同比增长6.2%，实现较高增长，出口 表现韧性十足。1-11月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，消费仍在持续 恢复，尤其是升级类服务消费增长较快。1-11月份，固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，高技术产业投资维持 较高增长。 中央经济工作会议指出，2026年要更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，持续扩大内需、优化供给，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化 解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增 长。 《21世纪》：2025年前三季度经济增长5.2%，预计四季度经济增速如何？如何看待2025年经济表现？ 刘元春：按照大家的核算，从需求端来看，四季度经济增速预计在4.5%左右；供给端表现会好一些， 像四季度工业增加值增速预计在4.8%左右，因此最终核算下来，四季度GDP增速预计 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. Although the fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to boost infrastructure investment, steel mills may resume production in January, and demand will be seasonally weak [1]. - Iron ore prices are likely to fluctuate. Supply from Australia and Brazil has increased, while demand remains stable with some focus on restocking demand [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations. The supply of coking coal is affected by year - end production control, and the demand for both is weak due to the off - season of steel [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are predicted to move in a fluctuating manner. The supply and demand fundamentals of both are not strong enough to drive continuous upward trends [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Steel - The rebar futures contract 2605 closed at 3130 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (0.38%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 0.36 million hands in positions. Spot prices were stable with some increases, and the national building materials trading volume was 11.78 million tons. National building materials inventory dropped 8.16% to 3.1163 billion tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased 2.93% to 1.9929 billion tons [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2605 rose to 796.5 yuan/ton, up 13.5 yuan/ton (1.7%), with 460,000 hands in trading volume and an increase of 49,000 hands in positions. Australian shipments were 2.1137 billion tons, and Brazilian shipments were 945.9 million tons, both increasing compared to the previous period [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2605 closed at 1088 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan/ton (2.47%), with an increase of 2318 hands in positions. Some coal prices in the spot market changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2605 closed at 1680.5 yuan/ton, down 39.5 yuan/ton (2.3%), with an increase of 1123 hands in positions. Some steel mills initiated the fourth round of price cuts for coke on January 1, 2026 [1]. Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price rose 0.58% to 5862 yuan/ton, with an increase of 583 hands in positions. The weekly output of manganese silicon increased by 2.31% to 192,600 tons last week [1]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price rose 0.18% to 5676 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15,056 hands in positions. The output of ferrosilicon decreased by 1.3% to 98,500 tons last week [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as profit and spread data like rebar disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - **3.3.2 Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various black commodities over different months [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - **3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spread trends between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 10) of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][32][34][35][38][39]. - **3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: It shows the spread trends between different varieties such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio between rebar and iron ore, etc. [44][46][48]. - **3.3.5 Rebar Profits**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar main contracts, including disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [50][51][53]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and experience in the black industry [56][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

Fiscal Policy - The National Finance Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure and optimizing government bond tools [2][3] - Key tasks for fiscal work in 2026 include supporting domestic demand, enhancing technology and industry innovation, promoting urban-rural integration, and strengthening basic livelihood guarantees [2][3] Digital Currency - The People's Bank of China announced an action plan for the digital yuan, set to launch on January 1, 2026, with a new digital currency management framework [4][5] - As of November 2025, the digital yuan processed 3.48 billion transactions, amounting to 16.7 trillion yuan [4] Social Security Fund - The social security fund has expanded its investment into technology innovation funds in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, and Hubei, with a total scale of 140 billion yuan [6][7] - The fund's strategy has shifted from direct investment to a mother-child fund model, aiming to leverage more social capital [6][7] Real Estate - Vanke's bond extension proposal was rejected, with only a 30-day grace period approved, indicating tightening support from creditors [8][9] - Vanke faces significant debt repayment pressure, with a total of 5.7 billion yuan in bonds maturing soon, raising concerns about its financial stability [8][9] Venture Capital - In 2025, U.S. startups raised a record 150 billion USD (approximately 1.05 trillion yuan), driven by large funding rounds from major investors [10][11] - The investment landscape is shifting towards established AI companies, making it harder for smaller startups to secure funding [10][11] Employment and AI - AI is projected to replace many jobs by 2026, leading to a potential new wave of unemployment as companies seek to enhance productivity without increasing workforce size [12][13] - The rapid advancement of AI technology is expected to have a more immediate impact on the job market compared to previous technological revolutions [12][13] Fund Performance - Active equity funds have seen significant returns, with the highest annual yield reaching 236.88%, indicating strong performance in the current market [14][15] - The focus on long-term returns and the need for funds that can withstand market cycles is becoming increasingly important [14][15] Stock Market - The stock market experienced mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell [16][17] - Market sentiment is showing signs of divergence, with increasing numbers of stocks entering a correction phase as the index approaches the 4000-point mark [16][18]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy - In 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure and optimizing government bond tools [2] - The effectiveness of transfer payment funds will be enhanced to increase local financial autonomy [2] - The fiscal structure will be continuously optimized to strengthen support for key areas [2] Group 2: Employment and Income - The fiscal policy will promote resident employment and income growth by coordinating various funds to support enterprises in maintaining and expanding jobs [3] - Taxation, social security, and transfer payments will be utilized to increase residents' income through multiple channels [3] Group 3: Consumption - In 2026, the government will actively support consumption by implementing a special action plan and funding for the replacement of old consumer goods [4] - The policy for replacing consumer goods will be optimized to expand service consumption and eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [4] Group 4: Investment - Various measures will be taken to stabilize investment, including increasing the scale of central budget investments and utilizing government investment funds effectively [5] - The government will implement significant engineering projects and promote private investment [5] Group 5: Urban Development - High-quality urban renewal will be prioritized, focusing on implementing various livelihood, development, and safety projects [6] - The government will enhance the quality of urban environments through detailed renovations and community improvements [6] Group 6: Industry and Technology - The focus will be on enhancing industrial technological innovation capabilities and overcoming core technological challenges [8] - New emerging industries and future industries will be cultivated, including support for artificial intelligence and other high-tech sectors [10] Group 7: Transportation - In 2026, the construction of cross-regional and cross-basin transportation corridors will be advanced to improve national strategic service capabilities [11] Group 8: Energy - The proportion of renewable energy supply will be increased, with plans to add over 20 million kilowatts of wind and solar power generation capacity [12] - The government will promote the development of future energy industries, including hydrogen and nuclear energy [12] Group 9: Social Welfare - The coverage of maternity insurance will be expanded to include flexible employment workers and migrant workers, aiming for "no out-of-pocket" expenses for childbirth [13] - Direct disbursement of maternity allowances to insured individuals will be fully implemented [13] Group 10: Real Estate - Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market by utilizing existing housing stock for affordable housing and other purposes [14]

Group 1 - China's economic focus is shifting towards high-tech industries, with electric vehicles now classified as a mature industry, indicating a transition to next-generation technologies like AI and quantum computing [1] - By 2025, sales of electric and hybrid vehicles in China are projected to reach approximately 16 million units, with electric vehicles expected to maintain a market share of over 50% [1] - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" will no longer include "electric vehicles" in the strategic industry directory, signaling a comprehensive shift in development priorities [1] Group 2 - Germany's media reflects on its policy towards China, noting that China no longer views Germany as a dominant power, and calls for a more objective approach in bilateral relations [2] - China's domestic policies are set to implement more proactive fiscal measures, with a focus on increasing fiscal spending and enhancing policy precision and effectiveness [2] - The emphasis on fiscal support for high-tech, consumer, and livelihood sectors aligns with China's long-term goals of industrial upgrading and social welfare, providing a solid economic foundation for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3]