Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Report Date: December 29, 2025 [4] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. Group 4: Summary by Catalog 1. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) was 17 on 11/26 and remained unchanged on 12/26; the East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) was 47 and then dropped to -115; the South China basis (Foshan warehouse) was 7 and then decreased to -195. The daily change of all three was 0 [3]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 03 spread was -12 and then became -33 with a daily change of -1; the 02 - 03 spread was -18 and then -7 with no daily change; the 03 - 06 spread was -45 and then -29 with a daily change of 7 [3]. 2. Futures Market - **BU Main Contract (02)**: The price was 3043 and then dropped to 2992 with no daily change. The trading volume was 342,611 and then fluctuated, with a daily increase of 33,422 and a week - on - week decrease of 287,140. The open interest was 382,270 and then decreased to 443,225, with a daily decrease of 18,009 and a week - on - week decrease of 43,736 [3]. 3. Spot Market - **Brent Crude Oil**: The price was 63.1 and then changed to 62.2 (N/A on the last record) [3]. - **Asphalt Spot**: The Jingbo price was 3000 and then dropped to 2940 and remained unchanged; the Shandong (non - Jingbo) price was 2980 and then dropped to 2860 and remained unchanged; the Zhenjiang warehouse price was 3090 and then dropped to 2880 and remained unchanged; the Foshan warehouse price was 3050 and then dropped to 2800 and remained unchanged [3]. 4. Profit - **Asphalt - Ma Rui Profit**: It was 235 and then changed to 348 (N/A on the last record) [3].

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 LPG = FA 台H 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/29 -P G 内院CFR华 山东烷基 CP预测合 丙烷CIF日本 纸面进口利润 日期 华南液化气 华东液化 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 同价 化油 E 2025/12/22 4480 4388 4370 536 4580 7150 -213 580 202 355 2025/12/23 4377 4370 | 4475 590 550 507 4580 7180 -291 444 2025/12/24 4392 4320 4570 7180 4480 590 543 510 -277 398 4520 2025/12/25 4505 4389 4310 590 539 510 7150 -245 413 4270 -233 2025/12/26 4510 4384 289 541 4500 7150 l 日度变化 -40 -1 N -20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market conditions show a significant bullish sentiment in the forward contracts for eggs, with the basis for the 2608 contract reaching a historical high of 1500 points above spot prices, indicating optimistic pricing based on expected capacity reduction [3][37][38]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The market is currently experiencing a contradiction where bullish expectations are difficult to disprove, while high premiums may slow down capacity reduction, intensifying the speculative nature of the current market [4][33]. - The spot market is under pressure, with prices showing narrow fluctuations, and the overall price center for forward contracts has been elevated due to expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics [3][37]. Group 2: Price Observations - As of December 26, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.91 yuan per jin, with a weekly decrease of 0.16 yuan per jin, while the average price in major sales areas was 3.08 yuan per jin, down 0.14 yuan per jin week-on-week [10][42]. - The price trends indicate a slight upward movement in the spot market, but the overall price remains under seasonal pressure, leading to a narrow range of price fluctuations [40][42]. Group 3: Inventory and Production - The inventory of laying hens as of November 2025 was 1.352 billion birds, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% but a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, indicating a gradual easing of supply pressure [16][46]. - The number of hens being culled has decreased, with 20.82 million birds culled in the latest week, reflecting a slight rebound in culling prices to 3.80 yuan per jin, suggesting reduced willingness among farmers to cull [50][53]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The market is advised to be cautious of potential risks if spot prices recover, which could lead to increased retention of hens and a quicker return to stocking, potentially slowing the expected capacity reduction [4][33]. - The strategy for forward contracts suggests a preference for low-price positioning, as chasing high prices carries significant uncertainty [34][38].

目前沥青主力合约已经切换至2602合约，配合前期主力01合约综合来看，近期两周的沥青盘面表现为跌 后弱势震荡格局，震荡区间在2900-3000元/吨之间。现货端来看，同样是跌后弱势震荡，只是震荡区间 更窄，运行在2620-2650之间。可见这段胶着等待冬储的时间内现货市场心态明显企稳。 截至目前冬储的重头戏已经拉开帷幕，现实上周鑫海试探性放价3000元/吨，竟然也有少量接货，再者 就是12月15日山东地方炼厂京博释放的2900-2920元/吨，据反馈市场接货贸易商报盘意愿非常积极。该 冬储的释放成为今年正式冬储的风向标，将可预见的冬储成本框定在了2850-2920元/吨，后续要关注全 部炼厂冬储释放完成后看看总的冬储存量多少，也就能大概率锚定一季度的现货供需环境。 从基差结构上来看，2900元/吨的冬储现货成本对标12月15日BU2604合约的收盘价2995元/吨，最大基差 也就只有-95元/吨。分析后面的基差走势就尤为重要，而基差走势的波动主要看期货端，一般而言冬储 释放后现货价格会呈现阶段支撑，一直到冬储合同提货阶段（1-3月底），这段时间内是缺少现货环境 的，市场交易主要是围绕价格预期展开合同交易，而价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Plastic Part - The price of plastics is under pressure due to abundant supply. The total effective capacity growth rate is 16%, and the domestic production volume growth rate is 18% in the first half of the year. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply still suppresses prices. The overall market situation is not optimistic, with a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand before the Spring Festival [5]. - The strategy suggests a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now [5]. Polypropylene Part - Polypropylene prices are under pressure in the off - season. The total effective capacity growth rate is 12.7%, and the estimated annual output growth rate is 16.7%. The market is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in Q4, with an unfavorable supply - demand situation [95]. - Similar to plastics, the strategy recommends a short - position allocation on rebounds for single - side trading. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are also not recommended currently [97]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Plastic Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened significantly as the spot price increases less than the futures price. The 5 - 9 month spread has strengthened to - 31, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level [5]. - The import window has improved, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level within the year. The non - standard price spread shows that the HD film supply is tight, and the LD has weakened recently [29][32]. Supply - New capacity has been concentratedly put into operation from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective capacity growth rate of 16.7%. The supply is expected to remain abundant, with a slight decline in the short term and an increase in the future [47]. - The overall inventory removal is not smooth, and the inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream. The subsequent supply increase and weak downstream confidence may lead to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Demand & Inventory - The demand for downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films has entered a phased off - season. The overall downstream demand shows signs of decline, and the raw material demand is expected to decrease [5]. - The inventory transfer to the middle - stream is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a slowdown in social inventory removal [5]. Polypropylene Part Price & Spread - The basis has weakened as the futures price rebounds, and the warehouse receipts have increased again. The cross - period spread is fluctuating [97]. - The import window is approaching closure, and the export profit to Southeast Asia has limited growth. The non - standard price spread of the drawing material has slightly narrowed [112][119]. Supply - New capacity has been put into operation on a large scale from the end of 2024 to the middle of 2025, with an effective capacity growth rate of 12.7%. The supply is expected to be abundant, but there may be a marginal reduction in supply if some PDH devices stop production in January [140]. - The inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream, and the overall inventory is higher than the same period last year [97]. Demand & Inventory - The downstream start - up is temporarily stable, but the orders of some industries such as plastic weaving and pipes have seasonally weakened. The overall downstream demand shows a downward trend [96]. - The inventory removal is not smooth, and the downstream's lack of confidence in the future market has led to a high inventory level [97].

Report Overview - The report is a daily spread report for all varieties dated December 26, 2025, with investment consulting business qualification (Certificate of Approval [2011] No. 1292) [3] Commodity Analysis Black Series - **Silicon Iron**: The price of 72 silicon iron qualified blocks in Inner Mongolia - Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5695, down 64, with a change of -1.12%, and the historical quantile is 49.30% [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: The price of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia - Hubei warehouse receipts is 5840, with a change of -0.10% [1] - **Rebar**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3310, up 183 from 3127, with a change of 5.89%, and the historical quantile is 69.40% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3280 [1] - **Iron Ore**: The converted price of 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port is 846, down 16, with a change of -0.90%, and the historical quantile is 52.50% [1] - **Coke**: The converted price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke A13, S0.7, CSR60, MT7 at Rizhao Port is 1723, down 16 from 1739, with a change of -0.90%, and the historical quantile is 56.15% [1] - **Coking Coal**: The converted price of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian No. 5) at Shaheyi is 1156, up 32, with a change of 2.89%, and the historical quantile is 34.50% [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 94760, the futures price is 96210, the basis is - 1450, the basis rate is 0.62%, and the historical quantile is - 1.5% [1] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 21980, the futures price is 22275, the basis is - 295, the basis rate is 1.87%, and the historical quantile is - 1.3% [1] - **Alumina**: The spot price of SMM heavy alumina index is 2646, the futures price is 2729, the basis is - 83, the basis rate is 3.12%, and the historical quantile is 47.79% [1] - **Zinc**: The spot price of SMM 1 zinc ingot is 23010, the futures price is 23065, the basis is - 55, the basis rate is - 0.24%, and the historical quantile is 51.45% [1] - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 332750, the futures price is 335880, the basis is - 3130, the basis rate is 7.08%, and the historical quantile is - 0.93% [1] - **Nickel**: The spot price of SMM 1 imported nickel is 125410, the futures price is 124150, the basis is 1260, the basis rate is 1.00%, and the historical quantile is 10.41% [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of 304/2B:2*1240*C in Wuxi Hongwang (including trimming fee) is 13170, the futures price is 12990, the basis is 180, the basis rate is 1.39%, and the historical quantile is 31.75% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 104900, the futures price is 123520, the basis is - 18620, the basis rate is - 15.07%, and the historical quantile is 0.88% [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM un - fluxed 215530 is 8832, the futures price is 9250, the basis is - 418, the basis rate is 4.70%, and the historical quantile is 24.95% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold (AU (T + D)) is 1003.0, the futures price is 1008.8, the basis is - 5.8, the basis rate is - 0.57%, and the historical quantile is 1.20% [1] - **Silver**: The spot price of Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver (AG (T + D)) is 17414.0, the futures price is 17397.0, the basis is 17.0, the basis rate is 0.10%, and the historical quantile is 96.40% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal at the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 3020, the futures price is 2760.0, the basis is 260.0, the basis rate is 9.42%, and the historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil at the Jiangsu Zhangjiagang factory is 8200, the futures price is 7824.0, the basis is 376.0, the basis rate is 4.81%, and the historical quantile is 67.00% [1] - **Palm Oil**: The delivery price of palm oil at Huangpu Port is 8520, the futures price is 8542.0, the basis is - 22.0, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile is 19.70% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal at the Guangdong Zhanjiang factory is 2520, the futures price is 2352.0, the basis is 168.0, the basis rate is 7.14%, and the historical quantile is 79.60% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil at the Jiangsu Nantong factory is 9640, the futures price is 8981.0, the basis is 659.0, the basis rate is 7.34%, and the historical quantile is 93.60% [1] - **Corn**: The flat - hatch price of corn at Xizhou Port is 2280, the futures price is 2189.0, the basis is 91.0, the basis rate is 4.16%, and the historical quantile is 84.80% [1] - **Corn Starch**: The spot price of corn starch at the Jilin Changchun factory is 2620, the futures price is 2484.0, the basis is 136.0, the basis rate is 5.48%, and the historical quantile is 70.60% [1] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs (external ternary) at the Henan factory exit is 11800, the futures price is 11460.0, the basis is 340.0, the basis rate is 2.97%, and the historical quantile is 56.30% [1] - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs in Shijiazhuang, Hebei is 2946.0, the futures price is 2820, the basis is 126.0, the basis rate is 4.42%, and the historical quantile is 27.70% [1] - **Cotton**: The arrival price of cotton (3128B) in Xinjiang is 15086, the futures price is 14255.0, the basis is 831.0, the basis rate is 5.83%, and the historical quantile is 35.90% [1] - **Sugar**: The spot price of white sugar at Liuzhou Station is 5420, the futures price is 5269.0, the basis is 151.0, the basis rate is 2.87%, and the historical quantile is 25.20% [1] - **Apples**: The theoretical delivery price of apples is 9208.0, the futures price is 9000, the basis is 208.0, the basis rate is - 2.26%, and the historical quantile is 14.80% [1] - **Red Dates**: The wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 8905.0, the futures price is 8400, the basis is - 505.0, the basis rate is - 5.67%, and the historical quantile is 68.90% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Para - xylene**: The spot price of para - xylene at the main Chinese ports (CFR, converted to RMB) is 7276.0, the futures price is 7358.0, the basis is - 82.0, the basis rate is - 1.11%, and the historical quantile is 12.80% [1] - **PTA**: The market price (middle price) of purified terephthalic acid (PTA) in East China is 5152.0, the futures price is 5070.0, the basis is 82.0, the basis rate is - 1.59%, and the historical quantile is 22.70% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market price (middle price) of ethylene glycol (MEG) in East China is 3818.0, the futures price is 3650.0, the basis is 168.0, the basis rate is - 4.40%, and the historical quantile is 4.20% [1] - **Short Fibre**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester short fibre (1.4D*38mm (direct - spun)) in the East China market is 6540.0, the futures price is 6490.0, the basis is 50.0, the basis rate is - 0.75%, and the historical quantile is 28.20% [1] - **Styrene**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of styrene in East China, China is 6710.0, the futures price is 6638.0, the basis is 72.0, the basis rate is 1.08%, and the historical quantile is 45.20% [1] - **Methanol**: The market price (spot benchmark price) of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, China is 2162.0, the futures price is 2145.0, the basis is 17.0, the basis rate is - 0.70%, and the historical quantile is 26.30% [1] - **Urea**: The market price (mainstream price) of small - particle urea in Shandong is 1740.0, the futures price is 1730.0, the basis is 10.0, the basis rate is - 0.57%, and the historical quantile is 13.00% [1] - **LLDPE**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price) of linear low - density polyethylene LLDPE (film - grade) in Shandong is 6390.0, the futures price is 6325.0, the basis is 65.0, the basis rate is - 1.0%, and the historical quantile is 7.10% [1] - **PP**: The duty - paid self - pick - up price (middle price) of polypropylene PP (wire - drawing grade, melt index 2 - 4) in Zhejiang is 6266.0, the futures price is 6250.0, the basis is 16.0, the basis rate is - 0.26%, and the historical quantile is 20.80% [1] - **PVC**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyvinyl chloride (SG - 5) in the Changzhou market, China is 4757.0, the futures price is 4480.0, the basis is 277.0, the basis rate is - 5.82%, and the historical quantile is 9.80% [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The market price (mainstream price) of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in the Shandong market (converted to 100%) is 2234.4, the futures price is 2233.0, the basis is 1.4, the basis rate is 0.06%, and the historical quantile is 43.10% [1] - **LPG**: The market price of liquefied petroleum gas in the Guangzhou area is 4528.0, the futures price is 4076.0, the basis is 452.0, the basis rate is 11.09%, and the historical quantile is 64.10% [1] - **Asphalt**: The market price (mainstream price) of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 2995.0, the futures price is 2920.0, the basis is 75.0, the basis rate is - 2.50%, and the historical quantile is 35.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The distribution price of cis - butadiene rubber (Daqing, BR9000) of PetroChina East China is 11285.0, the futures price is 11100.0, the basis is 185.0, the basis rate is - 1.64%, and the historical quantile is 12.60% [1] - **Float Glass**: The market price of 5mm float glass in the Shahe Great Wall Glass (daily) is 1047.0, the futures price is 924.0, the basis is 123.0, the basis rate is - 13.31%, and the historical quantile is 21.21% [1] - **Soda Ash**: The market price of soda ash in Chongqing (daily) is 1184.0, the futures price is 1135.0, the basis is 49.0, the basis rate is - 4.32%, and the historical quantile is 24.78% [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The market price of natural rubber (Yunnan state - owned whole - latex) in Shanghai is 15730.0, the futures price is 15200.0, the basis is 530.0, the basis rate is - 3.49%, and the historical quantile is 63.06% [1] Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures** - **IF2603.CFF**: The spot price is 4642.5, the futures price is 4610.6, the basis is - 31.9, the basis rate is - 0.69%, and the historical quantile is 11.50% [1] - **IH2603.CFE**: The spot price is 3032.8, the futures price is 3034.0, the basis is - 1.2, the basis rate is 0.04%, and the historical quantile is 63.30% [1] - **IC2603.CFE**: The spot price is 7410.7, the futures price is 7320.6, the basis is - 90.1, the basis rate is - 1.21%, and the historical quantile is 4.80% [1] - **IM2603.CFE**: The spot price is 7579.4, the futures price is 7419.0, the basis is - 160.4, the basis rate is - 2.16%, and the historical quantile is 7.40% [1] - **Treasury Bond

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gasoline crack spreads are declining, but PX prices are strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite no significant fundamental changes, PTA units maintain high - load operation, and PX consumption remains stable. Korean manufacturers plan to cut STDP operation and shut down relevant units in the second half of December due to the widened PX - mixed xylene spread. PX costs are high while PTA profits are under pressure, but integrated enterprises' economic benefits improve. New polyester installations keep the polyester load high, increasing PTA consumption and market inventory intention, and strengthening the basis. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, polyester factories have low inventories and low willingness to cut production, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification may drive export growth [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Conditions - PTA spot price increased from 5015 to 5050, MEG inner - market price rose from 3573 to 3653, and PTA closing price went up from 5094 to 5152. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6550 to 6575. Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets rose, with the average price up 30 yuan/ton. Cotton 328 price increased from 14910 to 15000 [2] Market Transaction - In the short - fiber market, downstream purchasing is cautious, and the market is mainly bought by futures - spot traders with scarce transactions. In the bottle - chip market, the trading atmosphere is cautious, and downstream terminals are on the sidelines [2] Industry Operation Indicators - The direct - spun short - fiber load increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, and the polyester short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 80.00% to 56.00%. The polyester yarn startup rate and the recycled cotton - type load index remained unchanged [2][3] Profit and Cost - The polyester short - fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, the bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 527 to 469, the T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3800 to 3775, and the polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1321 to 1271. The cash flow of 6 - 15D hollow short - fiber decreased from 465 to 408 [2]

Group 1: Report General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - P2605: Settlement price 8516, opening price 8520, highest price 8578, lowest price 8506, closing price 8542, up 26 (0.31%), trading volume 299943, open interest 434218, down 14422 [7] - P2601: Settlement price 8492, opening price 8502, highest price 8558, lowest price 8498, closing price 8514, up 22 (0.26%), trading volume 22134, open interest 23925, down 13555 [7] - Y2605: Settlement price 778, opening price 7766, highest price 7832, lowest price 7760, closing price 7824, up 46 (0.59%), trading volume 202686, open interest 642712, down 15724 [7] - Y2601: Settlement price 8004, opening price 7988, highest price 8050, lowest price 7988, closing price 8044, up 40 (0.50%), trading volume 69651, open interest 24712, up 66899 [7] - OI605: Settlement price 8901, opening price 8003, highest price 9020, lowest price 8961, closing price 8981, up 80 (0.90%), trading volume 181994, open interest 197238, up 972 [7] - OI601: Settlement price 9181, opening price 9314, highest price 9372, lowest price 9286, closing price 9361, up 180 (1.96%), trading volume 8539, open interest 12038, down 2656 [7] Basis Price - East China tertiary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 530; February - March: OI2605 + 490 [7] - East China primary rapeseed oil: December - January: OI2605 + 730; February - March: OI2601 + 690 [7] - East China market primary soybean oil basis price: Spot: Y05 + 500; February - March: Y2605 + 460; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300 [7] - Dongguan palm oil quotes: Guangzhou Yihai 18 - degree: 05 + 160; Dongguan COFCO 18 - degree: 05 + 100; Dongguan factories 24 - degree: 05 - 30; Guangdong national standard 24 - degree: 05 + 20 [7] Operation Suggestions - Focus on the spot - futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and temporarily view it as a rebound [8] - CBOT soybeans and Malaysian futures are closed for Christmas. The supply - demand fundamentals of forward contracts are mixed. China's soybean procurement is progressing steadily, supporting CBOT soybeans, but US soybean export data is still weak, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [8] - Domestic soybean oil basis is strong, and the futures price has strong support at 7800 - 8000 [8] - Due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is difficult to sustain [8] - Rapeseed oil: Global rapeseed production hits a record, and Canadian exports are affected by Chinese tariffs. The market believes its valuation should decline. However, rapeseed oil spot is experiencing continuous inventory reduction, with concentrated ownership, and the basis quote is firm. Wait for the first - quarter tariff policy to be clear [8] - Due to the excessive decline, the futures price has rebounded from oversold levels, but be cautious about the unilateral upward height [8] - In arbitrage, go long on palm oil and soybean oil, and short on rapeseed oil [8] Group 3: Industry News - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month. Production in the Malaysian Peninsula decreased by 11.66% month - on - month, Sabah decreased by 2.12%, Sarawak decreased by 0.75%, and East Malaysia decreased by 1.73% [11] - From December 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports were 1058112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [10][11] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, US dollar - RMB exchange rate [13][15][18][26][32][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot trading volume has declined. The upstream price quotes have increased by 40 - 70. The inventory has shifted to the middle - stream, and the destocking of warehouse receipts has paused. There are supply and demand pressures due to high existing production capacity and weakening demand in the medium - term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2605 contract had a closing price of 6390, a daily decline of 0.28%, a trading volume of 557,216, and an open interest change of 2047 [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis was - 150, compared to - 208 the previous day. The 05 - 09 contract spread was - 33, compared to - 37 the previous day [1] - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price was 6240 yuan/ton (6200 yuan/ton the previous day); in East China, it was 6300 yuan/ton (unchanged); in South China, it was 6320 yuan/ton (6300 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated, and the upstream price quotes increased by 40 - 70. The market's short - term positive feedback led to the transfer of inventory to the middle - stream, and the destocking of warehouse receipts paused. The import offers from the Middle East and the US decreased in quantity, and the prices were at a premium compared to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US were delayed, and more imports are expected to arrive in Q1 2026 [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price fluctuated, and the monomer segment was weakly stable. The supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane were compressed. The PE futures price rebounded from a low level, with trading concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream buyers did not follow the price increase to replenish stocks. The downstream agricultural film market weakened, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of the middle and downstream to hold inventory weakened. The upstream offered discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, resulting in a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan for December is neutral. Some FD production has been switched, and some Inner Mongolia plants have reduced production. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For methanol, Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but floating storage is high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. It is believed that the end - point of contract 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year.后续供应预计环比略增加, downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. In the context of over - capacity, contract 01 is expected to face neutral to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH plants have more maintenance [3]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, and downstream performance is mediocre. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, the price of power coal futures remained at 801, while the prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain fluctuations, with daily changes such as a 25 - yuan decrease in Jiangsu spot [1]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Iranian plants shut down, ports and inland areas rebounded, basis strengthened slightly, ports destocked for two weeks but floating storage was high, and it is expected to return to inventory accumulation. November shipments from Iran were 1.1 million tons, and it is difficult to reduce imports from December to January [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products changed, with daily changes like a 10 - yuan decrease in North China LL [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Sinopec and PetroChina's inventory is neutral year - on - year, upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral, import profit is around - 200, and domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 75 - yuan increase in East China PP [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, import profit is around - 700, exports are good, and subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 19 to 25, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products changed, with daily changes such as a 10 - yuan decrease in the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China [3]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: The basis remains stable, downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, and attention should be paid to new plant commissioning and export sustainability in Q4 [3].