Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in international gold prices, which have consistently broken through key thresholds, reaching historical highs, and the resulting impact on the futures and options markets [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - International gold prices have shown strong performance, recently surpassing $3,400 and $3,500 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures reported at $3,440 per ounce, marking a 0.43% increase [1]. - Spot gold prices reached a high of $3,500.12 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1]. Group 2: Options Market Activity - The surge in gold prices has triggered significant activity in the options market, particularly a phenomenon known as "doomsday wheel," which occurs in the days leading up to options expiration [3]. - Several deep out-of-the-money call options for gold futures saw dramatic price increases, with some contracts experiencing gains of up to 9,800% [3]. Group 3: Futures Market Dynamics - Gold futures have attracted substantial capital inflow, with total funds in gold futures reaching approximately 980.4 billion yuan, surpassing major stock index futures [8]. - The total open interest in gold futures has increased significantly, reaching a historical high of 453,000 contracts, up from 392,000 contracts earlier in the month [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the bullish sentiment towards gold, some institutions are cautioning about potential short-term adjustments due to the rapid price increases and changing market conditions [10]. - The increase in market volatility has led trading firms to raise margin requirements and price limits for gold futures to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [9].

华侨银行策略师克里斯托弗 - 王(Christopher Wong)指出，特朗普解雇鲍威尔的潜在举动，将带来严重的市场冲击。这不仅会破坏央行独立性这一重要原则， 还可能导致美国货币政策政治化，从而引发市场的不安。一旦美联储的信誉受到质疑，美元的信心基础将被动摇，资金会加速流向黄金等避险资产。 High Ridge Futures 金属交易总监 David Meger 则认为，在关税紧张局势持续升温的背景下，黄金作为避风港的属性愈发凸显。尽管市场偶尔会出现回调和获 利了结的情况，但从长期来看，黄金价格仍有望维持横盘到走高的趋势。 Kitco Metals 的高级分析师 Jim Wyckoff 却持有不同观点。他表示，当前黄金价格每日的大幅波动，是这轮成熟牛市接近尾声的早期信号。不过，市场顶部 的到来，更多是时间上的临近，而非单纯取决于价格的走势。各方观点不一，也让黄金市场的未来走向变得更加扑朔迷离，投资者在这样复杂的市场环境 中，也将面临前所未有的挑战与机遇。 这一轮黄金市场的剧烈波动，背后是多重因素的交织作用。新一轮美元疲软的态势持续发酵，特朗普对美联储的持续批评加剧了市场的不确定性，而久拖未 决的贸易战更是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold soared 6.6% to $3,237 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.49%, inflation expectations dropped to 2.23%, real interest rates rose to 2.26%, the US dollar index tumbled 2.84% to 100, the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, the RMB rose slightly, and the Shanghai gold shifted from a premium to a discount [2] - The sharp rise in gold was driven by the inflow of funds due to the triple slump in the US stock, bond, and exchange markets. The erratic US tariff policy and the escalating retaliatory tariffs between the US and China increased market risk aversion, which was fundamentally beneficial to gold. The extreme tariff policy also led to capital outflows from the US, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold [2] - US economic data showed a decline in inflation pressure in March, but food prices continued to rise, and future tariffs would cause further price increases. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April decreased, while the one-year inflation expectation climbed [2] - There is a risk of overheating in the short-term market sentiment. The positions and trading volume of Shanghai gold have increased significantly, and there was profit-taking by long positions overseas last week. The short-term postponement of additional tariffs and exemptions for certain commodities by the US reduced the possibility of conflict escalation, and the Fed's potential market intervention also eased the selling pressure [3] - After the strong rise of gold, long positions have become crowded in the short term. Tariff developments will increase market volatility, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) was 0.45 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.52 yuan and a change rate of -742.9%. The internal - external futures price difference was -9.19 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -11.28 yuan and a change rate of -539.0% [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms to 15,678 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 495,732 ounces to 44,575,964 ounces [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume rose by 20.35 tons to 953.15 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 38,088 hands to 138,465 hands [11] - The US Treasury yield increased by 0.47 percentage points to 4.48%, and the US dollar index decreased by 3.15 points to 99.77 [11] - The SOFR was 4.37%, with a weekly decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped by 0.0431 percentage points to 2.2336% [11] - The S&P 500 index increased by 289 points to 5,363, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 7.8 points to 37.6 [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 7.2, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 0.58 percentage points to 2.26% [11] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.37%. Oil prices dropped 3.1%, and US inflation expectations fell to 2.23% [17] - The US dollar index tumbled 2.8% to 100, and the US Treasury yield was 4.49%. The S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, and the VIX index dropped to 37.56 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets declined, while the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%. Developing country stock markets also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.11% [22] - Real interest rates rose to 2.25%, and gold prices soared 6.6%. The spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index tumbled [23] - The euro rose 3.53%, the British pound rose 1.53%, the Japanese yen rose 2.31%, and the Swiss franc rose 5.34% [26] - US and German bond yields increased, and the US - German yield spread widened to 1.92%. The British government bond yield was 4.75%, and the Japanese government bond yield was 1.32% [27] - The US dollar index dropped 2.84% to 100, and most non - US currencies appreciated [28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative net long positions decreased to 138,000 hands, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume increased to 953 tons [31] - The RMB depreciated slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 100 [35] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's March foreign trade and financial data; US March New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Tuesday: Germany and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index; US April New York Fed manufacturing index and March import price index [36] - Wednesday: China's Q1 GDP, March retail sales, and industrial added - value data; US March retail sales and April NAHB housing index [36] - Thursday: ECB interest rate meeting; US March new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims [36] - Friday: Japan's March CPI; US stock market closed for Good Friday [36]

，多空交投分歧。操作上，建议暂时观望。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 119280 | 640 05-06月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -140 | -10 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14486 | -149 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 80225 | -4461 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -1883 | 3259 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 202938 | 630 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 33256 | -3669 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13818 | 570 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 26028 | -1138 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 121750 | -850 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 121850 | -850 | ...

更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 煤化工产业链周报 Coal Chemical Industry Chain Weekly Report 摘要 行情回顾 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 夏聪聪 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3012139 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0012870 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578010 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年04月07日星期一 市场避险情绪升温，煤化工板块走势偏弱。甲醇、PVC、烧碱承压 回落，上方五日均线附近阻力明显。尿素期货涨势暂缓，重心冲高 后回落。 煤炭市场 【交易策略】关税政策加剧市场波动，避险情绪升温，尿素盘面存 在回调可能，多单建议离场，上方1930-1950附近承压，下方支撑 在1850-1860附近。 ●烧碱 上游煤炭市场维稳运行，报价与前期持平。产地主流煤矿生产平稳 ，货源供应充裕，到矿拉运车辆增加，多数煤矿库存保持在低位水 平，暂无库存压力。下游刚需接货为主，需求步入淡季，支撑力度 偏弱。煤炭市场供需宽松，市场存在下行压力。 ●甲醇 【市场逻辑】成本端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries. Industrial metals saw a significant drop of 4.36%, driven by heightened concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn due to unexpected tariff policies [1][15] - The report highlights that the recent U.S. tariff policies have significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to a notable retreat in industrial metal prices. However, the macroeconomic framework suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points. Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment dropped by 4.36% [15][1] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week. SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31%. The supply side remains constrained, while demand is affected by high prices [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90%. Social inventory decreased, indicating a faster destocking rate [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94%. Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27%. Inventory changes were mixed [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: As of April 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05%. The recent U.S. tariff policies have heightened market risk aversion, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [4][45][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a significant decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries [15] - Industrial metals prices have sharply retreated due to heightened market concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn following unexpected tariff policies [1][25] - The report expresses a bullish outlook on gold in the medium to long term, despite short-term volatility due to liquidity shocks [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points [15] - Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment saw a notable drop of 4.36%, while the precious metals sector decreased by 1.24% [15] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31% [2][32] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90% [3][39] - **Zinc**: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94% [42] - **Tin**: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27% [44] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05% [45][48] - The report highlights that the U.S. effective tariff rate has surged to 22.5%, the highest since 1909, intensifying market fears regarding economic downturns and boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [47]

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 彭阳 周昀锋 王楠茜 王淦 耶鲁研究 表明若美国平均关税税率提升1%，则PCE会提升0 . 1% 。我们测算对等关税若全部落地（不考虑反制措施），美国加权平均关税税 率将提升1 7 . 9%，对应推升美国PCE 1 . 8%左右，会对美国经济产生较大的负面冲击。对等关税落地的时间差或为各个国家与美国谈判的窗 口，并且白宫公告表明"如果贸易伙伴采取重大措施补救非互惠贸易安排并在经济和国家安全事务上与美国保持一致，则降低关税"。当前泰 国、韩国等国家已表示将与美国就关税问题进行谈判。因而最后对等关税最终是否会全部落地还需观察等待，存在部分国家积极谈判后关税税 率下降或被豁免的可能性。 市场避险情绪浓厚，美联储降息预期升温。 特朗普对等关税落地推动1 0年期美债利率大幅下行，美股期货集体跳水，纳指期货跌幅至4%，市 场预期年内美联储降息次数升至3次。考虑特朗普关税落地后将在一季度后的美国通胀中显现，并且市场通胀预期已经在今年一季度明显上 升，因而此轮美联储降息或将较为被动，或会在就业等经济数据明显恶化后才重启降息。 ▍ 大类资产后续如何演绎？ 北京时间4月3日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在白宫 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market for government bonds is expected to have increased volatility, and caution is advised [5][6]. - Despite short - term fluctuations, the stock index is still expected to rise, and it is advisable to consider buying index futures on dips [9][10]. - The medium - and long - term logic for precious metals remains strong, and existing long positions can be held [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and take profits on rebounds, with light - position participation [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, there may be an opportunity to focus on deep out - of - the - money call options for manganese silicon in the low - level range, and short - position holders of ferrosilicon can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [24][25]. - For fuel oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading the main contract [26][27]. - For polyolefins, it is recommended to take a long position in the PP and L main contracts [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [30][31]. - For natural rubber, it is recommended to trade based on the range - bound thinking [32][33]. - For PVC, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35][37]. - For urea, it is expected to be strong in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline in the future [38][39]. - For PX, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and investors can consider participating cautiously on dips [40]. - For PTA, it is recommended to operate cautiously and seize opportunities based on supply - demand changes [41]. - For ethylene glycol, the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term, and investors should operate cautiously [42]. - For short - fiber, it is recommended to trade within a range following the cost side [43]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to adjust following the cost side, and attention should be paid to cost price changes [44]. - For soda ash, the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. - For glass, the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be continuously monitored [48]. - For caustic soda, the price is expected to oscillate as a whole [49]. - For pulp, it is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. - For lithium carbonate, the upside pressure is expected to be large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. - For copper, the price is in a stage of adjustment [54][55]. - For aluminum, the price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [56][57]. - For zinc, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [58][59]. - For lead, the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60][61]. - For tin, attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. - For nickel, the price has support below, but the upside space may be limited [63]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to be weak, while the polysilicon market is relatively stable [64]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider long - position attempts at the bottom - support range after a decline [65][66]. - For palm oil, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [67][68]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to expand the spread after the soybean - rapeseed spread narrows [69][70]. - For cotton, consider short - selling after a rebound [73][74]. - For sugar, consider buying on dips [77][78]. - For apples, consider buying on dips [79]. - For live pigs, consider the far - month opportunities after a rebound [80][81]. - For eggs, consider short - selling the far - month contracts on rallies [82][83]. - For corn, it is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [84][85]. - For logs, beware of a rapid decline if the reality is weaker than expected [88]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Government Bonds - The previous trading day saw most government bond futures closing down, with the 30 - year contract up 0.15%, and the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts down 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 649 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 1st, with a net withdrawal of 313 billion yuan [5]. - The March Caixin China Manufacturing PMI reached 51.2, the highest since December 2024 [5]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw small fluctuations in stock index futures, with the CSI 300 futures up 0.08%, the SSE 50 futures down 0.11%, the CSI 500 futures up 0.66%, and the CSI 1000 futures up 0.39% [7]. - A national conference on promoting the replacement of consumer goods was held, emphasizing work promotion and policy implementation [7]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw the gold main contract closing at 736.3, up 0.89%, and the silver main contract closing at 8,432, down 0.87% [11]. - The eurozone's March CPI and core CPI data showed certain changes, and the unemployment rate hit a record low [11]. - The Fed has paused rate cuts, and the future rate - cut rhythm is highly uncertain [11]. Steel Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillating. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3050 yuan/ton, and Shanghai rebar was 3100 - 3210 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils were 3330 - 3350 yuan/ton [13]. - The weak real - estate demand and increasing rebar production suppress prices, but macro policies and the peak season may provide support [14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a significant rebound in iron ore futures. PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and super - special powder was 650 yuan/ton [16]. - The increasing iron - water production supports demand, and the supply - side situation has changed, with port inventory decreasing [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a strong rebound in coking coal and coke futures. Some coal - washing enterprises and traders have started to purchase, and the market sentiment has improved slightly [18]. - The demand from coking enterprises has increased, and the fundamentals of coke have shown signs of continuous improvement [19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract up 0.95% to 6146 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract up 0.37% to 5984 yuan/ton [21]. - The manganese - ore supply may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, while the supply is still high [21]. Energy Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw INE crude oil opening high and closing higher, up more than 3.4% [23]. - Fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of US oil and gas rigs decreased [23]. - The market may be chaotic due to factors such as US - Russia negotiations and OPEC's production increase [24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil rising sharply following crude oil. The domestic low - sulfur 180cst fuel oil had a certain price range [26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil supply may be tight, but the global shipping market may be affected by the trade war [26]. Chemicals Polyolefins - The previous trading day saw the polyethylene market adjusting, and the polypropylene futures oscillating upward. The cost side provided some support, but the demand did not change significantly [28]. - The "Golden March" season is obvious, and the overall demand for polyolefins is expected to be slightly better, with the market expected to be oscillating strongly [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract up 0.29%. The开工 loss has been narrowing, and the inventory has been decreasing [30]. - The butadiene price is weakly oscillating, and the supply and demand situation has certain characteristics [30]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract down 0.48%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract flat. The market will continue the pattern of "high supply + weak demand" in April [32]. - The supply in Yunnan may increase, and the demand is weak, but the low social inventory provides some support [32]. PVC - The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract up 0.53%. The supply - side capacity utilization has increased, and the demand - side downstream enterprises have a certain procurement pattern [35]. - The export is still dependent on low prices, and the cost has decreased, but high inventory and new capacity put pressure on prices in the long term [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw the urea main contract up 3.27%. The short - term spring - plowing demand and policy dividends support the strong operation, but long - term risks exist [38]. - The supply is expected to be around 200,000 tons per day, and the demand from agriculture and industry has different characteristics [38]. PX - The previous trading day saw the PX2505 main contract up 1.84%. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted, and the PX load has decreased due to multiple plant overhauls [40]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the short - term PX is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. PTA - The previous trading day saw the PTA2505 main contract up 0.82%. The supply - side load has increased, and the demand - side polyester load is expected to rise further [41]. - The cost side is supported by the rising crude oil price, and the PTA price is expected to oscillate following the cost side [41]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract up 1.8%. The coal - based plant load has decreased, and the inventory has increased and is difficult to reduce [42]. - The downstream polyester demand is gradually improving, but the peak - season performance is not as expected, and the price is expected to be under pressure [42]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2505 main contract up 0.97%. The supply - side load has declined slightly, and the demand - side terminal factories' raw - material inventory is stable [43]. - The cost side support is weakening, and the short - fiber price is expected to follow the cost side [43]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2505 main contract up 0.93%. The cost support is slightly insufficient, and the supply - side load is expected to increase [44]. - The downstream soft - drink consumption is gradually recovering, and the bottle - chip price is expected to adjust following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1388 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. Some plants have carried out overhauls, and the supply is adjusting at a high level [45]. - The inventory has been decreasing slightly, and the market is still demand - driven in the short term [45]. Glass - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 1235 yuan/ton, up 4.04%. The number of production lines has decreased, and the impact on the supply - demand pattern is limited [47][48]. - The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and the inventory reduction speed needs to be monitored [48]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 2515 yuan/ton, down 1.30%. The production of large - scale caustic - soda enterprises has decreased [49]. - The alumina price is expected to be weak, and the caustic - soda price is expected to oscillate [49]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw the main 2505 contract closing at 5638 yuan/ton, down 1.02%. Some pulp mills have maintenance plans, and the port inventory has decreased [51][52]. - The downstream demand has a certain pattern, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short term [52]. Non - Ferrous Metals Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract closing up 0.49% to 74,360 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand has improved, but the inventory is still rising [53]. - The upside pressure is large, and attention should be paid to upstream mine disturbances [53]. Copper - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract closing at 79,820 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The overseas economic data is mixed, and Trump's tariff policy has escalated [54]. - The copper concentrate supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is in the peak season, but the trade friction affects exports [54]. Aluminum - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract closing at 20,415 yuan/ton, down 0.34%, and the alumina main contract closing at 2,942 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [56]. - The alumina supply pressure is strong, and the electrolytic aluminum consumption recovery is beneficial for inventory reduction [56]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract closing at 23,305 yuan/ton, down 0.91%. The zinc concentrate processing fee is rising, and the refined zinc production is expected to increase [58]. - The consumption is in the peak season, and the social inventory is expected to decrease [58]. Lead - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract closing at 17,360 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The primary lead production has declined slightly, and the secondary lead production is difficult to increase significantly [60]. - The "trade - in" policy has a slight impact on consumption, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure [60]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin up 0.89% to 289,000/ton. The mine - end supply is disturbed, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the inventory has increased [62]. - Attention should be paid to the impact of the earthquake in Myanmar [62]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw the nickel price up 0.49% to 129,300 yuan/ton. The cost is supported by factors such as policy and season, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low [63]. - The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the market may remain in a supply - surplus situation [63]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw the industrial silicon main contract closing at 9,790 yuan/ton, down 0.31%, and the polysilicon main contract closing at 43,560 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [64]. - The industrial silicon market is in a supply - surplus situation, while the polysilicon market is supported by supply and demand [64]. Agricultural Products Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw the soybean - meal main contract down 0.92% to 2804/ton, and the soybean - oil main contract down 0.90% to 7896 yuan/ton [65]. - The US soybean planting area is slightly lower than expected, and the domestic soybean supply is expected to increase, while the demand has certain characteristics [65][66]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm - oil import in January - February 2025 decreased by 44.9% year - on - year, and the inventory is at a relatively low level [67]. - It is advisable to temporarily hold off on trading [68]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed has risen, and China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes since March 20, 2025 [69]. - The impact on rapeseed

对于未来黄金价格的走势，市场普遍持乐观态度。多家机构和分析师认为，随着市场避险情绪的持续升 温以及全球货币政策的宽松预期，黄金价格有望继续保持上涨态势。一些机构甚至预测，金价中枢有望 突破3800美元/盎司。 然而，也有分析人士提醒投资者，黄金市场同样存在风险，投资者应谨慎对待。在追逐金价上涨的同 时，也需关注市场动态和风险因素，合理配置资产，以规避潜在的市场风险。 据市场数据显示，自2025年初以来，黄金价格已累计上涨超过18%，涨幅显著。而此次冲破3100美元大 关，更是进一步巩固了黄金在全球金融市场中的地位。 分析人士指出，黄金价格的持续上涨，一方面得益于其作为避险资产的独特属性，另一方面也与全球货 币政策的宽松预期密切相关。随着美联储可能开启降息周期，美元汇率有望走弱，这将进一步提升黄金 的吸引力。 此外，全球央行对黄金的增持也是推动金价上涨的重要因素之一。据预测，全球央行年购金规模有望上 升至1300吨/年，这将为黄金市场提供有力的支撑。 3月31日，全球黄金市场迎来历史性时刻，伦敦现货黄金价格强势冲破3100美元/盎司的关键心理关口， 最高触及3101.51美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 近期，全球地 ...