Group 1: Non-Farm Data and Gold Price Dynamics - The U.S. Labor Department reported a stronger-than-expected non-farm employment data for May, with an increase of 139,000 jobs, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.2% and an average hourly wage growth of 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][3] - This robust employment data led to a surge in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, causing gold futures to drop by 0.84% to $3,346.60 per ounce [1][3] - The dual impact of non-farm data on gold prices is reflected through monetary policy expectations and changes in risk sentiment among investors [1][3] Group 2: Deep Logic of Non-Farm Data Impacting Gold Prices - Healthy employment metrics directly reflect U.S. economic vitality; weak data may lead to expectations of Fed rate cuts, increasing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [4] - Wage growth exceeding expectations could heighten inflation concerns, while simultaneous economic slowdown may lead to "stagflation" worries, enhancing gold's anti-inflation properties [4] - Historical data shows that weaker-than-expected non-farm reports typically result in an average gold price increase of $7.83, while stronger-than-expected reports lead to an average decrease of $5.07 [4] Group 3: Industry Pain Points and Investment Challenges - Investors face execution delays during extreme market conditions, with traditional platforms experiencing order delays exceeding 0.5 seconds and slippage rates above 1% [5][6] - The average industry spread of $0.5 per ounce, combined with commissions and overnight interest, can erode over 10% of long-term trading profits [6] - Lack of dynamic risk control tools can lead to significant losses for investors who hold positions or increase leverage during volatile periods [7] Group 4: Solutions Offered by Gold Trading Platforms - Gold trading platforms like Jinseng Precious Metals leverage regulatory compliance and technological innovation to address challenges posed by non-farm data [8] - The platform offers millisecond-level trade execution and zero slippage experiences, ensuring rapid order execution even during extreme market fluctuations [8][9] - A smart risk control system utilizes AI algorithms to identify key support and resistance levels, providing alerts and adjusting stop-loss targets automatically [9] Group 5: Compliance and Transparency in Operations - Each trade over 0.1 lots generates a unique code for traceability, ensuring transparency and preventing opaque operations [10] - Client funds are securely stored in licensed banks in Hong Kong, with SSL encryption and multi-layer firewall technology, ensuring safety and efficiency in withdrawals [10] Group 6: Scenario-Based Services and Investor Education - The platform provides pre-release reports on non-farm data, offering strategic recommendations based on technical and fundamental analysis [11] - New investors can practice trading strategies through simulated accounts, receiving automated reports on profit and loss distributions [11] - A unique "trading psychology training system" helps investors manage stress during extreme market conditions, improving their decision-making [11] Group 7: Conclusion on Non-Farm Data Volatility - Non-farm data acts as a market "barometer," often leading to significant gold price fluctuations but also presenting structural opportunities [12] - Understanding data logic and utilizing compliant platform tools are crucial for investors to navigate volatility and achieve long-term wealth preservation and growth [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for US stocks is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the prospects of fiscal and monetary policies are gradually becoming clear. Although Trump's policies have had less - than - expected impacts, they have changed the market trading logic. The stagflation risk persists, and the path to a soft - landing through interest rate cuts has become more complicated. The high valuation of US stocks is being challenged [1][19]. - Corporate earnings are expected to weaken, but the growth rate remains resilient. The market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, but it is still estimated that the annual earnings growth rate can reach 9%. The valuation expansion space is limited due to high macro - environment uncertainty [2][69]. - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure, with the downside risk higher than the upside risk. However, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner in the second half of the year. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and seize the opportunity to allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks [3][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 US Stock Market Review: Macro - Policy Games Increase Market Volatility - In early 2025, after Trump took office, the market traded around his policy paths. In the first quarter, the focus was on reducing government spending, which initially worried the market about a potential recession. However, the actual reduction was far less than expected. Since April, the threat of reciprocal tariffs has affected market sentiment, but the market recovered quickly as tariff negotiations eased [14]. - Although Trump's policies had less - than - expected implementation, they changed the market trading logic. The emergence of DeepSeek weakened the US's technological monopoly, shaking the "American Exceptionalism" and challenging the high valuation of US stocks [19] 3.2 2025H2 US Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 The US Economy Shows Stagflation Characteristics - The US economy is likely to experience mild stagflation in the second half of the year, with the economy continuing to decline and inflation rising. The stock market has not fully priced in the economic downturn [20]. - Hard economic data has not deteriorated significantly, but soft data has been under pressure. Trade policy uncertainties have increased short - term fluctuations in soft data, leading to deviations in private - sector investment and consumption behavior. Consumer and business confidence have been affected, and the "import - rush" effect has overdrafted future consumption and investment capabilities [23]. - Consumer confidence and inflation expectations have fluctuated with trade policies. Although consumer spending has not declined significantly, the growth rate of durable - goods consumption has slowed down after the "import - rush" effect faded. The employment market is gradually weakening, and corporate investment and inventory growth are expected to decline [25][34][43] 3.2.2 The Prospects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies are Gradually Becoming Clear - The effective tariff rate in the US has declined but remains at a high level. After the expiration of the tariff suspension in July, the tariff policy will become clearer. Whether the tariff is extended or implemented, it will help reduce market uncertainty [56]. - The US fiscal policy is still in an expansionary phase. The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to increase the deficit in the next decade. The US government's debt - ceiling issue may lead to an increase in bond supply in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [58][59][60]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in the third quarter, waiting to assess the impact of macro - policies on inflation and growth. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the rate - cut trading will be more complicated in the second half of the year due to rising inflation [64] 3.3 2025H2 Outlook for US Stock Indexes 3.3.1 Corporate Earnings Expectations Weaken, but Growth Rate Remains Resilient - Affected by the macro - environment, the earnings growth rate of US stocks has reversed its upward trend. The market expects the earnings growth rate to fall to single - digit levels in the next three quarters. However, the performance of corporate earnings in the first quarter was acceptable [67]. - The technology, communication services, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors have maintained an EPS growth rate of over 10%. The technology sector is still the main driver of net profit growth. Although the market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, EPS has maintained an upward trend, providing support for the stock index [69] 3.3.2 Valuation Space is Limited and Difficult to Expand Significantly - Since the beginning of the year, the valuation levels of the three major stock indexes have moved away from historical extremes. However, due to high macro - environment uncertainty, the valuation is unlikely to expand significantly. The static valuation is expected to range between 22 and 26 times [70] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure from tariff negotiations, fiscal policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and increased bond supply. The downside risk is higher than the upside risk. - In the second half of the year, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks. In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 is expected to be supported around 5100; in a neutral scenario, it will operate around 6050; and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 6400 [3][72][73]

A 美联储再度暂停降息 6月19日，美联储发布最新的利率决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%~4.5%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储货币政策会议连续第 四次决定维持利率不变。美联储在2024年9月启动本轮降息周期，经过3次降息把联邦基金利率累计下调100个基点后，于今年1月开始保持利 率不变，并持续至今。美联储表示，对高通胀和高失业率的双向风险的判断有所降低，同时，点阵图偏鹰，美国"滞胀"压力加剧。鲍威尔重 申，美联储将继续保持观望态度，待美国经济走势更明朗之后，再决定如何调整货币政策。 在会后发布的声明中，美联储表示，对失业率的措辞从"稳定在低水平"调整为"保持低位"；与此同时，关于不确定性的措辞表述由"进一步增 加"变更为"有所下降但保持高位"。美联储还维持当前的缩表速度不变，即维持每月50亿美元的国债赎回上限以及350亿美元的机构债券和机 构抵押贷款支持证券的赎回上限。整体而言，6月会议声明略微偏鹰，显示近期美国经济数据边际走弱并未动摇美联储的政策立场。 由于此次会议是季末的货币政策会议，美联储还更新了最新的点阵图和经济预测。在19位官员的降息预测中，中位数依旧是两次，与今年3月 时的预测相同。 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 50% tariff on certain steel products, effective June 23, 2025, expanding the scope to include everyday consumer goods like dishwashers and refrigerators [3][5] - This tariff increase follows a previous adjustment in March, where steel and aluminum tariffs were raised to 25% and then to 50% in June [5][16] - The policy aims to protect domestic industries, but it has sparked controversy as it may lead to increased appliance prices by 5%-10% due to higher import costs [7][5] Group 2: Impact on Global Oil Supply - Iran's parliament suggested closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil, through which one-third of the world's oil supply is transported daily [9][11] - If closed, global oil supply could drop by 20%, potentially causing oil prices to surge from $75 per barrel to between $100 and $120 [11][30] - The rising oil prices could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., with the Federal Reserve raising inflation expectations to 3.5% for 2025, and the risk of inflation exceeding 4% if oil prices remain uncontrolled [20][22][44] Group 3: Economic Repercussions - The dual challenges of tariffs and rising oil prices place significant pressure on the U.S. economy, with potential impacts on consumer prices and manufacturing costs [20][22] - The situation could lead to a "stagflation" crisis, affecting not only the U.S. but also economies reliant on exports to the U.S., such as the EU and Asian countries [24][30] - Experts suggest that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may be part of a larger plan to eventually lower tariffs while still generating significant revenue, potentially around $400 billion annually [26][41] Group 4: Domestic Steel Industry - The U.S. steel industry is currently underutilized, with a capacity utilization rate of only 78% as of Q1 2025, indicating that high tariffs have not significantly boosted domestic production [34] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies may not effectively revitalize the U.S. steel sector as intended, raising questions about the long-term viability of such measures [34][47]

短期内，关税进一步推高了通胀，压缩了居民的实际收入；从中长期来看，如果找不到新的增长动力， 美国经济可能会陷入滞胀的风险——即低增长伴随高通胀。政策制定者需要在抑制通胀的同时避免过度 紧缩，并且白宫的贸易政策也将直接影响未来的经济前景。 标普全球市场情报首席商业经济学家Chris Williamson指出："6月份的PMI初值显示美国经济在第二季度 末依然保持增长，但前景充满了不确定性。"随着过去两个月通胀压力显著增加，企业不得不通过提价 来应对关税带来的成本上涨，而这将逐渐传导至消费者层面。 总之，美国经济目前正处于"增长放缓加通胀升温"的复杂局面中，PMI数据既体现了经济的韧性，也暴 露了潜在风险。美联储选择观望，等待更清晰的信号以指导下一步行动，而贸易战和政策的不确定性仍 是决定未来走向的关键因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京6月24日电标普全球最新发布的6月采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，尽管制造业和服务业仍 处于扩张区间，但增速有所减缓，反映出美国经济在面对内外挑战时的脆弱性。 制造业PMI为52，略高于市场预期的51，但与上月持平，表明制造业的增长势头勉强维持。服务业PMI 为53.1，虽 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced an overall increase in trading volume but showed a downward trend, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.215 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks [1] - The banking, telecommunications, and electronics sectors performed well, while beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, but several consumption data points, particularly in real estate and automotive sectors, are weakening [2] - New housing sales in major cities are significantly lower than the same period last year, with only Beijing showing stronger performance [2] - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, pose a risk of stagflation [2] - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include durable goods consumption, export growth, and potential policy responses [2] International Developments - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from a low of $55 to around $75 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, indicating a cautious approach amid inflation uncertainties [3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally, which could negatively impact risk assets [3] Market Expectations - The market shows resilience compared to the previous two years, despite existing pressures on the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming policy window in July may lead to market reactions based on new policy stimuli [4] - There is an expectation of a potential market rebound driven by policy support, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [4] Market Style - The narrowing of thematic trading suggests that large-cap stocks may offer better elasticity and value compared to small-cap stocks [5] - The market is expected to engage in policy trading in the first three weeks of July, with historical trends indicating that large-cap stocks may outperform [5] - Suggested sectors for attention include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend stocks, which may benefit from policy support [5]

Market Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has noted the emergence of carry trade in the market, with the Hong Kong-US interest rate spread widening to 3% to 4%, pushing the Hong Kong dollar close to the weak end of its peg at 7.85 [1] - HKMA's Chief Executive emphasized the importance of stablecoins in payment applications over asset appreciation, indicating that expectations for high investment returns from stablecoins are unrealistic [1] - The Federal Reserve's Vice Chair Bowman suggested support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or if the labor market weakens [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading held steady at 52, the highest since February, exceeding market expectations [2] - The Eurozone's June composite PMI preliminary reading remained at 50.2, slightly below the expected 50.5, with the services PMI returning to the 50 mark while manufacturing PMI stayed at 49.4, marking 36 months without growth [2] - Germany's June composite PMI preliminary reading increased from 48.5 to 50.4, while France's composite PMI decreased from 49.3 to 48.5 [3] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.89% to 42,581.78 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.96% to 6,025.17 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.94% to 19,630.97 points [4] - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 8.95% to $67.23 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 8.37% to $69.16 per barrel [5] - The COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.04% to $3,384.40 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 0.09% to $36.05 per ounce [6] Regulatory Developments - The Thai Stock Exchange temporarily halved the daily price fluctuation limit for listed companies, effective until June 27 [7] - Central banks in India and Malaysia have reduced their derivative positions aimed at weakening their currencies, while South Korea's National Pension Fund has ended its five-month support for the Korean won [7]

美联储古尔斯比：关税与具有滞胀影响的油价冲击没有什么不同。 ...

品浩(Pimco)全球经济顾问Richard Clarida表示，未来数月美国出现滞胀的风险较小，称其出现20世纪70 年代石油危机的可能性很低。他表示，通胀数据"好于预期"，而就业数据则"令人惊喜"，迄今为止，市 场对伊朗遭袭的反应温和，并强调是非常温和。虽然对全球标售需求存在担忧，且对美国财政状况的担 忧加剧，但过去一个月左右美债标售表现"实际上非常好"。 ...

Economic Overview - The internal momentum of the US economy is weakening, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 0.4 percentage point decline in Q2 real GDP growth to 3.4% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) growth has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 1.9%, primarily due to a slowdown in the services sector [2] - Private investment growth (excluding inventory) has dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 0.4%, with significant contractions in real estate (-4.4%) and construction (-3.4%) [2] - The job market remains stable, with weekly initial jobless claims falling by 0.3 thousand to 245 thousand, aligning with seasonal levels [2] - The worsening situation in the Middle East is increasing inflationary pressures, as indicated by the Truflation daily inflation index rising by 8 basis points to 2.14% [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal surplus of $18.5 billion, which is weaker than seasonal levels but stronger than historical averages [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained a wait-and-see stance during the June meeting, with the dot plot indicating that 7 out of 18 members do not expect rate cuts this year [3] Market Performance - Overseas markets showed muted performance last week, with the US dollar slightly rebounding and US Treasury yields fluctuating [4] - The US stock market was nearly flat, up 0.1%, with expectations that the most significant tariff impacts have passed, potentially leading to a renewed upward trend driven by corporate earnings resilience [4] - However, high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [4] - The strategy suggests maintaining a neutral position on US stocks with a balanced allocation [4] Chinese Economic Conditions - Domestic demand shows mixed signals, with strong automotive consumption but a slowdown in real estate transactions [6] - In June, average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 48,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - Real estate sales are declining, with new home transaction volumes in 30 major cities dropping by 8.6% year-on-year [7] - The land market is also cooling, with land supply and transaction volumes decreasing [7] External Demand and Trade - High-frequency data indicates a potential slowdown in China's export growth in June, with port cargo and container throughput growth rates declining [8] - Exports to the US may have seen some recovery, while exports to non-US regions are expected to decline from previous highs [8] Fiscal Performance - In May, fiscal revenue growth slowed, with public budget revenue increasing by only 0.1% year-on-year [9] - Tax revenue growth decreased to 0.6%, while non-tax revenue turned negative for the first time in 2024 [9] - Government spending growth was also slower, with a 2.6% increase year-on-year [9] Market Strategy - The bond market is showing strength, with short-term rates performing well due to a stable funding environment [10] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with uncertainties in corporate earnings and the need for further policy support for real estate and consumption [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of correction, with high valuations and unstable fundamentals [12]