锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/10/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,842.00 | -10.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,550.00 | -44.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 513,200.00 | -6382.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 332,067.00 | +361.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -65,778.00 | +1556.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,551.00 | -8823.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 48.00 | +10.00↑ | SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 98.00 | +10.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 8,100.00 | +8100.00↑ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 2,624.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1288.0, up 1.62%. On the spot side, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. Fundamentally, the mine - end operating rate declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, the operating rate of coal washing plants declined this period, and the mid - and downstream replenished stocks, with the total inventory showing a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation [2]. - On October 30, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1786.5, up 0.59%. On the spot side, coking plants proposed a third price increase for coke. The Fed's rate cut and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders were finalized, and the market sentiment declined during the day. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline this period, with the pig iron output at 239.90 (-1.05 million tons), and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 41 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation driven by cost [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1288.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1786.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50. The JM futures contract position was 970861.00 lots, down 15149.00; the J futures contract position was 50050.00 lots, down 515.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 63853.00 lots, down 10014.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5584.00 lots, down 544.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 140.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1140.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 232.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00; the basis of the J main contract was - 11.50 yuan/ton, up 69.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.50 million tons, down 0.20; the refined coal inventory was 284.40 million tons, down 5.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.37%, down 0.00. The raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80. The import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.30, down 0.60. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14. The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1029.70 million tons, up 32.33; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28. The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.77 days, down 0.13; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.07 days, down 0.12 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00. The output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00. The output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39. The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [2]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% [2]. - Some coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong proposed a third price increase for coke on October 29, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton and a top - charging increase of 70 - 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 31 [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2: Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interest, spreads, inventory, and corporate profits [1]. Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,295, up 155 from T - 1; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,870, down 24 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,879, up 62 from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,690, up 115 from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 616,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1; the electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,126.94, up 12.40 from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,906, down 1 from T - 1; the profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 120, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 28, down 1 from T - 1; the total inventory of three places was 48,465, up 190 from T - 1 [1]. Other Information - **Comprehensive News**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and will end balance - sheet reduction in December; South Korea promised to invest $350 billion in the US to get tariff preferences [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: 0; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [3]

1. Glass and Soda Ash 1.1 Investment Rating Not provided 1.2 Core View The supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, but previous phased negatives are mostly out. It's recommended to close out previous short positions, wait and see in the short - term, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the market has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the industry's supply - demand situation remains weak in the long - term [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged, while futures prices of some contracts increased. The basis of some contracts decreased significantly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate, weekly output, and float - glass daily melting volume increased, while photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories increased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area all showed different degrees of change, mostly negative [1]. 2. Logs 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Log futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Although the current price has cost support, there are expectations of weakening fundamentals in the future, including increased supply and weakening demand [3]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices fluctuated, and some spot prices remained unchanged, while some in Rizhao Port decreased [3]. - **Supply**: The number of pre - arriving log ships and the arrival volume increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The total national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily average outbound volume increased [3]. 3. Natural Rubber 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View In the short - term, the Fed's hawkish stance on December interest - rate cuts may put pressure on rubber prices. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The price may run around 15,000 - 15,500 if raw material supply is difficult, and may decline further if supply goes smoothly [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Some spot and raw material prices remained unchanged, while some had small fluctuations. The basis and monthly spreads also changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in different countries and regions, tire production, exports, and tire factory operating rates all showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Inventory**: The bonded and general - trade inventory in the protected area decreased, while the futures inventory in the factory warehouse increased [5]. 4. Polysilicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Polysilicon is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the establishment of the platform company and production control, as well as whether there is an increase in demand orders to support supply growth [7]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices decreased slightly, and futures prices increased and then fell back. The monthly spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon and silicon wafer production, imports, exports, and net exports all showed different trends [7]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased [7]. 5. Industrial Silicon 2.1 Investment Rating Not provided 2.2 Core View Industrial silicon is expected to be in a low - level oscillation. Although supply increases put pressure on prices, there is also cost support below [8]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices remained unchanged, and futures prices increased. The basis and monthly spreads changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: National and regional industrial silicon production, operating rates, and production of downstream products all showed different trends [8]. - **Inventory**: Some regional factory inventories and social inventories decreased slightly, while non - warehouse - receipt inventories increased slightly [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the medium - term price center still moving down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on October 30, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,257 yuan/ton, up from 2,241 yuan/ton the previous day; the settlement price was 2,245 yuan/ton, down from 2,252 yuan/ton the previous day; the trading volume was 585,629 lots, down from 685,035 lots the previous day; the open interest was 1,197,415 lots, down from 1,221,292 lots the previous day; the number of warehouse receipts was 12,122 tons, down from 13,872 tons the previous day; the trading volume was 1,314,936 ten - thousand yuan, down from 1,542,841 ten - thousand yuan the previous day. The basis was - 47, down from - 34 the previous day, and the MA01 - MA05 spread was - 64, down from - 62 the previous day [1] - In the spot market, on October 30, 2025, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shandong price was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2102.10, down 0.18. The Taicang spot price was 2210, up 3, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2010, unchanged. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 3 to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed regional narrow - range adjustments. The futures market rebounded slightly after hitting a new low in the night session, and the port market followed slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still average. The atmosphere in the main inland areas improved slightly. After the olefin procurement in the production areas was released, and most upstream enterprises' inventories were still controllable, most trade resales showed small increases, and some low - end transactions were acceptable; some areas in North China weakened slightly [3] - As of October 29, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 million tons [3] Market Outlook - The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many important macro - events recently, the short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term price center will still move down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, and the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions. The 01 contract's downside space is gradually narrowing as the premium decreases. Macro - events such as the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and Sino - US trade consultations need to be closely monitored, as well as the Sino - US ship issue [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall sentiment of the commodity market has strengthened, and the disk has rebounded recently. However, fundamentally, the weekly production is at a high level, and there is an obvious surplus compared to the current rigid demand. The inventory of manufacturers has been transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory has continued to rise. In the medium term, there is no expectation of a significant increase in downstream production capacity, so the overall demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid demand pattern. If there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction in the future, the supply and demand will be further pressured. It is recommended to track macro fluctuations and the load adjustment of soda ash plants. The overall supply and demand pattern is still bearish, but the previous phased negative factors have basically been exhausted. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions, wait and see in the short term, and wait for the opportunity to short on the rebound [1]. - Recently, the production and sales have significantly warmed up, and the disk has stabilized and rebounded. After multiple price cuts, the middle and lower reaches have begun to replenish their inventories one after another, and the spot-futures traders have been actively purchasing. Due to the weakening of the basis, some spot-futures traders have no quotes. It is necessary to pay attention to the continuous performance of the spot market. Returning to the industry's supply and demand, although the deep-processing orders have improved seasonally, they are still weak, and the low-e glass开工率 has continued to be low, showing no obvious characteristics of the peak season. In the long term, the real estate cycle is at the bottom, and the completion volume is shrinking. Eventually, the industry needs to clear the excess production capacity. It has been suggested to close out the previous short positions and pay attention to the spot market to capture short-term long opportunities [1]. Logs - The price of log futures contract 2601 is at a relatively low level. The obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices has formed a certain support for the import cost, limiting the downward space of the disk. However, there is an expectation of weakening fundamentals in the future. On the one hand, the import volume to the port will increase seasonally in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually emerge. On the other hand, the effect of the national subsidy policy has faded, and the furniture demand has weakened, resulting in insufficient support from the terminal demand and an increased risk of inventory accumulation at the port. Under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market's pessimistic expectation dominates. Overall, the log futures disk is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the follow-up progress of the China-US economic and trade consultations on the import cost expectation and the changes in the spot price [3]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, there has been a lot of rain in the producing areas until the end of the month, and the raw material prices have continued to rise. In the short term, the cost side strongly supports the rubber price. In the long term, there is still an expectation of increased supply. It is necessary to pay attention to the future weather conditions. On the demand side, most semi-steel tire enterprises have maintained stable production schedules. Currently, there are concentrated orders for snow tires with various specifications and models. To ensure the normal supply of each product, the production enthusiasm of semi-steel tire enterprises remains high. For all-steel tires, the enterprises' shipment performance has been stable, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased. There are plans to boost sales at the end of the month, and most enterprises are likely to maintain stable production schedules, with a slight fluctuation in the overall capacity utilization rate. In summary, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on the prospect of a December interest rate cut may put short-term pressure on the rubber price. It is necessary to pay attention to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the macro changes. If the raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space for the rubber price. If the raw material supply is not smooth, the rubber price is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 and 15,500 [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon has slightly decreased by 630 yuan/ton, a decline of about 1.2%. The futures price has risen driven by positive news such as the expected establishment of a platform company, but then declined with a reduction in positions. This may be because the arbitrage window opened after the price increase, leading some long positions to close out. The futures price closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 635 yuan/ton. It was reported that on October 28, 2025, Mr. Zhu Gongshan of GCL Group revealed in the CCTV program "Economic Half - Hour" that 17 major industry enterprises basically agreed to sign an agreement to form a consortium, which is beneficial for price increases. On the supply side, as the production capacity in the southwest region is gradually shut down, the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule has increased, and the supply pressure has decreased, but the downstream procurement has decreased, resulting in an increase in inventory. It should be noted that the silicon wafer price has slightly decreased, and the sustainability of the polysilicon price increase needs to be monitored. Currently, polysilicon is mainly oscillating at a high level. On the one hand, it is necessary to pay attention to the establishment of the platform company and the production control situation. On the other hand, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side to support the increase in supply. After the significant increase in the futures price, the futures price is at a premium to the spot average price. For further significant increases, it is necessary to pay attention to the hedging space of upstream enterprises. It is also necessary to pay attention to whether there will be further implementation measures or policies [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon has stabilized, and the futures price has risen driven by the news of anti - involution, closing at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the weekly supply - side output has increased, while the demand - side output has decreased, which may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on the price. When the spot price is under pressure, it is necessary to note that the opening of the arbitrage window in East China may bring hedging opportunities. The coking coal price has risen under positive news such as supply contraction, and its impact on the industrial silicon futures price needs to be noted. Currently, it is still maintained that the increase in industrial silicon supply puts pressure on the price, but there is also cost support at the bottom. It is expected to mainly oscillate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,500 and 9,500 [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash in North China, East China, and Central China remained unchanged. The prices of glass contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.27% and 1.04% respectively, and the prices of soda ash contracts 2505 and 2509 increased by 1.20%. The 05 basis of glass decreased by 12.03%, and the 05 basis of soda ash decreased by 51.61% [1]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased from 85.53% to 88.41%, and the weekly output increased from 74.57 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.95 million tons to 16.13 million tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased from 59.355 million weight boxes to 62.824 million weight boxes, a rise of 5.84%. The soda ash factory inventory increased from 159.99 million tons to 165.98 million tons, a rise of 3.74%. The soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased from 67.19 million tons to 69.91 million tons, a rise of 4.05% [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [1]. Logs - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of log contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 increased slightly. The prices of various log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost remained unchanged, and the exchange rate remained unchanged [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 6.00%, and the number of ships at the port increased by 4.55%. The total inventory of national coniferous logs decreased by 2.74%, and the daily inventory withdrawal volume increased [3]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber remained unchanged, the basis of whole - milk rubber decreased by 43.44%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 31.94%. The FOB intermediate price of cup rubber increased by 1.43%, and the FOB intermediate price of glue remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August changed, and the production of China increased. The开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production in August increased, and the tire export volume in September decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The protected area inventory decreased by 1.20%, the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased by 6.28%, and the出库率 and入库率 of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.19%, and the N - type material basis decreased by 92.00%. The prices of N - type silicon wafers and some battery components remained unchanged, and the prices of some components increased slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly and monthly production of silicon wafers increased, and the monthly production of polysilicon decreased. The import and export volume of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.98%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 6.70% [7]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon decreased. The monthly spreads of different contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The national and regional production of industrial silicon changed, the开工率 of different regions changed, and the production of organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and recycled aluminum alloy changed. The industrial silicon export volume decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan changed, and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the spot basis has strengthened slightly due to the boost in downstream polyester sales this week. The market transaction focus has gradually shifted to November. In terms of absolute prices, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side in the short term. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated this week, and port inventories are expected to increase significantly. The overall inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter is around 400,000 tons, and domestic supply will be abundant in the later period. After the delivery cycle ends, spot buying in the trading sector will also weaken. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be adjusted within a range in the short term, with continuous upward pressure [8]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels above need to be monitored when the market rebounds [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 PTA - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, and the spot basis strengthened. Traders were the main participants in the negotiation. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. There were transactions at a discount of around 80 to the 01 contract this week, 72 - 77 next week, 70 in mid - November, 65 - 68 in late November, 50 in late December, and 56 for this week's warehouse receipts. Today's mainstream spot basis is at a discount of 76 to the 01 contract [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4535, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 101, with the futures price higher than the spot price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a positive factor [6]. - **Main positions**: The net short position is decreasing, showing a slightly bearish situation [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon. The night - session opened lower and then rose, with light negotiation in the market. In the morning, the market was mainly in a weak correction. Spot negotiation and transactions were around a premium of 66 - 72 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the buying of recent goods was active, and the spot basis strengthened to around a premium of 80 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, with fair trading in the market. In the US dollar market, the center of the external market of ethylene glycol adjusted slightly. Near noon, recent shipments fell to around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in inquiries at low prices. In the afternoon, the market rebounded, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 492 - 493 US dollars/ton, with slightly stalemated negotiation [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4158, and the basis of the 01 contract is 58, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous period, which is a positive factor [9]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a negative factor [9]. - **Main positions**: The main net short position is increasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.3今日关注 - **Positive factors**: A new 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China was put into production last weekend and has started to produce products [10]. - **Negative factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 - million - ton and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 - million - ton plants have increased [11]. 3.4基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, load, output, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, and inventory changes [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on EG production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and inventory changes [14]. 3.5 Other Data The report also includes data on bottle - chip prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, spot spreads, inventory of related products in the polyester industry chain, upstream and downstream operating rates, and profit margins from 2020 to 2025 [16 - 64].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Short - term macro environment is favorable, and strong raw material prices support rubber prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, the rubber price is expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 28, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14,750. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased by 20 to - 610, with a 3.17% increase. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained at 15,000. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.75 to 53.15 Thai baht/kg, with a 1.43% increase. The raw material price in Hainan increased by 300 to 13,100, with a 2.34% increase [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 to 120, with a - 7.69% decrease; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 to - 22, with a 15.38% increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2.0 to 458.8 (in ten - tons), with a - 0.43% decrease; Indonesia's production decreased by 8.5 to 189.0 (in ten - tons), with a - 4.30% decrease; India's production increased by 5.0 to 50.0 (in ten - tons), with an 11.11% increase; China's production increased by 12.2 to 113.7 (in ten - tons). The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859.0 to 10,295.4 (in ten - thousands), with a 9.10% increase. In September, tire export volume decreased by 671.0 to 5,630.0, with a - 10.65% decrease. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 7.5 to 59.59 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 14.41% increase. In September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 8.0 to 74.0 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 12.12% increase [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 5,254 to 432,229 tons, with a - 1.20% decrease. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,521 to 42,640, with a 6.28% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, but previous phased negative factors are basically exhausted. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the long - term industry needs capacity clearance, but previous negative factors are basically realized. It is recommended to exit previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On October 29, the prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The price of glass 2505 increased by 17 to 1263, with a 1.36% increase; the price of glass 2509 increased by 9 to 1343, with a 0.67% increase [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 6 to 1331, with a - 0.45% decrease; the price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 6 to 1384, with a - 0.45% decrease [4]. - **Supply Volume**: On October 24, the operating rate of soda ash increased by 2.88 percentage points to 88.41%, with a 3.37% increase; the weekly output of soda ash increased by 2.5 to 77.08 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 3.37% increase; the daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.2 to 16.13 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 1.16% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: On October 24, glass factory inventory increased by 346.9 to 6,282.4 (in ten - thousands of weight - products), with a 5.84% increase; soda ash factory inventory increased by 6.0 to 165.98 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 3.74% increase; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.7 to 69.91 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 4.05% increase [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area changed to - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [4]. Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The log futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of China - US economic and trade consultations on import cost expectations and changes in spot prices [5]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 28, the price of log 2601 decreased by 1 to 786 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and 4A small, medium, and large radiata pine in Taicang Port remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, with a 33% week - on - week increase; the arrival volume increased by 8.5 to about 53.3 (in ten - thousands of cubic meters), with a 19% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 8 to 284 (in ten - thousands of cubic meters), and the daily average outbound volume increased by 0.12 to 6.44 (in ten - thousands of cubic meters) [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Industrial silicon supply increase pressures prices, but there is also cost support. It is expected to be in a low - level volatile state, with the main price fluctuation range at 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On October 28, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 and SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged. The basis of SI5530 increased by 10 to 395, with a 2.60% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 10 to - 105, with an 8.70% increase [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 10 to 25, with a 66.67% increase; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 20 to - 25, with a - 400.00% decrease [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Nationally, industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 to 42.08 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 9.10% increase; the operating rate increased by 6.07 to 61.94, with a 10.86% increase. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 1.29 to 21.02 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 5.78% decrease; polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 to 13.00 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 1.29% decrease [6]. - **Inventory Change**: As of a certain period, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01 to 10.84 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 0.09% decrease; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 3.41 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 0.58% decrease; social inventory decreased by 0.30 to 55.90 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 0.53% decrease [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate downward. It is mainly in a high - level volatile state. Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand - side orders. After the futures rise sharply, the discount is repaired, and further significant increases need to consider the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [7]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 28, the average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material increased by 145 to - 1375, with a 9.54% increase [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The price of the main contract decreased by 145 to 54,355, with a - 0.27% decrease. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 260 to - 2090, with an 11.06% increase [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.15 to 2.95 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 4.84% decrease; monthly polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 to 13.00 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 1.29% decrease. Monthly polysilicon import volume increased by 0.03 to 0.13 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 28.46% increase; export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.21 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 28.16% decrease [7]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.5 to 25.80 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 1.98% increase; silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.16 to 18.47 (in GW), with a 6.70% increase [7].

Report Investment Rating - The synthetic rubber trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] Core View - The domestic butadiene market continues its downward trend, and the ex - factory price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is stable while the market offer range declines. Cis - butadiene rubber has fundamental pressure but a neutral - low valuation, and its price is expected to show an oscillating pattern due to high supply pressure, potential marginal improvement in fundamentals in November, cost - side pressure from butadiene, and the influence of important macro events [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (12 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 10,995 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 31,320 hands to 131,980 hands, the open interest decreased by 17,076 hands to 49,618 hands, and the trading volume increased by 167,595 ten - thousand yuan to 729,070 ten - thousand yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene minus the futures main contract increased by 25 to 55, and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 decreased by 10 to 60 [1] - **Spot Market**: The prices of cis - butadiene in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong all decreased, with the largest decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) also decreased, by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 250 yuan/ton and 215 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate increased by 1.22 percentage points to 69.0377%, the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 11,152 yuan/ton, and the cis - butadiene profit remained unchanged at 48 yuan/ton [1] Industry News - The domestic butadiene market continues its downward trend due to relatively abundant supply, cautious buying sentiment, and poor performance of downstream synthetic rubber futures. The price in Shandong's Luzhong area is around 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is around 7800 - 8000 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber is stable, but the market offer range declines. After the decline of the futures price, the market bearish sentiment increases, and the transaction center moves down. The price of private cis - butadiene rubber in the northern region is around 10,600 - 10,750 yuan/ton [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports 2. Core Views - The reports provide daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, covering price differences, spreads, spot prices, and related economic indicators [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences**: IF, IH, IC, and IM期现价差, with values such as IF期现价差 at 11.70% and changes like -31.62 compared to the previous day [1] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Various inter - period spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM, e.g., IF跨期价差次月 - 当月 at - 16.60 with a change of - 3.00 [1] - **Cross - variety Ratios**: Ratios like 中证500/沪深300 at 1.5648 with a change of 0.0074 [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis for TS, TF, T, and TL, e.g., TS基差 at 0.2010 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0023 [2] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Spreads for different periods of TS, TF, T, and TL, such as TS跨期价差当季 - 下季 at 0.0900 with a change of 0.0120 [2] - **Cross - variety Spreads**: Spreads between different Treasury bond futures, e.g., TS - TF at - 3.3570 on 2025 - 10 - 27 with a change of - 0.0740 [2] Precious Metal Futures - **Domestic Futures**: AU2512合约 closed at 934.14 yuan/gram on October 27, down 0.42% from October 24; AG2512合约 closed at 11394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.55% [3] - **Foreign Futures**: COMEX黄金主力合约 closed at 3997.00, down 3.15%; COMEX白银主力合约 closed at 46.83 dollars/ounce, down 3.26% [3] - **Spot Prices**: London gold at 4111.56, down 0.36%; London silver at 48.62 dollars/ounce, down 0.47% [3] - **Basis**: Gold TD - 沪金主力 at - 3.85 with a change of - 1.08 and a 1 - year historical percentile of 21.60% [3] Container Shipping Futures - **Spot Quotes**: Quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route, e.g., MAERSK马士基 at 2358 dollars/FEU on October 28, down 0.25% from October 27 [4] - **Shipping Indexes**: SCFIS (European route) at 1312.71 on October 27, up 15.11% from October 20; SCFIS (US West route) at 1107.32, up 28.24% [4] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 at 1571.6, down 1.84%; the basis of the main contract (EC2512) at - 167.6, with a change of 28.7 and a percentage change of - 14.62% [4] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container运力供给 at 3328.67 FTEU on October 28, with a negligible change; Shanghai port准班率 at 42.77 in September, up 133.59% from August [4]