Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a robust growth in loans and deposits, with total social financing exceeding 30.09 trillion yuan [1][8] - The report reflects a stable credit environment and an ongoing adjustment in monetary policy, suggesting that there is ample room for moderate easing without immediate concerns about high inflation [1][3] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of September, the balance of RMB loans reached 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [2] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.44 trillion yuan [2][3] - The total RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with household deposits contributing 12.73 trillion yuan [6] Monetary Supply and Policy - The M2 money supply stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while M1 grew by 7.2% [5][7] - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 has narrowed to 1.2 percentage points, the lowest since 2021, indicating increased activity in the economy [7] - The current monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, supporting economic recovery and growth [9] Social Financing and Economic Support - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1][8] - In September, the new social financing amounted to 35.34 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [8] - The structure of social financing shows a shift towards more diversified financing channels, with loans accounting for about 48% of the new social financing, while government and corporate bonds accounted for approximately 43% [9]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of September, the growth rates of social financing scale, M2 money supply, and RMB loan balances significantly exceeded economic growth, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1][7]. Financing and Monetary Policy - As of September 30, 2025, the social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%. The total increment in social financing for the first three quarters was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 851.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year. In contrast, net financing from government bonds was 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Credit Growth and Structure Optimization - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 13.44 trillion yuan. The balance of RMB loans reached 270.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [4]. - The structure of credit is continuously optimizing, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% and medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector increasing by 8.2% [4]. Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - By the end of September, M2 stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4%. The narrow money (M1) balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2% [7]. - The recent increase in M1 growth rate is attributed to the activation of corporate and household deposits, indicating improved business activity and consumer demand [7]. Future Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the current monetary policy will continue to support the real economy, with fiscal policies also playing a significant role. The effects of previous measures aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods are expected to gradually manifest [7][8]. - The large scale of financial resources is effectively meeting the financing needs of the real economy, but achieving rapid growth may be challenging due to the shift towards high-quality economic development [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released financial statistics for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a stable growth in loans and deposits, with a focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy in supporting the economy [1][9]. Financial Data Summary - As of the end of September, the total RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing exceeded 30.09 trillion yuan [1][9]. - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [3][10]. - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [6][10]. Loan and Deposit Analysis - In the first three quarters, household loans increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, while corporate loans rose by 13.44 trillion yuan [3][4]. - In September alone, RMB loans increased by 1.29 trillion yuan, with a seasonal increase of 700 billion yuan compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down 40 basis points year-on-year [4][5]. Social Financing Insights - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [10][11]. - The increase in social financing for the first three quarters was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [9][11]. - The proportion of loans in the total social financing decreased to about 48%, while government and corporate bond financing increased to approximately 43% [11][12]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The current monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year [11][12]. - The financial data indicates that monetary policy is effectively supporting economic recovery, with a focus on maintaining a balance between loan growth and economic stability [12].

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 10月15日，央行公布数据显示，初步统计，2025年9月末社会融资规模存量为437.08万亿元，同比增长 8.7%。2025年前三季度社会融资规模增量累计为30.09万亿元，比上年同期多4.42万亿元。9月末，广义 货币(M2)同比增长8.4%，增速较上月末低0.4个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长7.2%，增速较上月末高 1.2个百分点。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，从金融数据可以看出，9月末广义货币余额和社会融资规模增速均保 持较高水平，均高于经济增速，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境。同时，今年以来，M1 与M2剪刀差也明显收敛，反映出企业生产经营活跃度提升、个人投资消费需求回暖等积极信号。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青也称，根据外部环境波动、经济增长动能变化、物价水平走势，以及更大 力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳的要求，四季度货币政策还会保持支持性立场，主要发力点是降低企业和 居民融资成本，增加信贷可获得性，进而大力提振内需，有效对冲四季度外需波动可能对宏观经济运行 带来的冲击。 （编辑：朱会珊 审核：朱紫云 校对：张国刚） 展望未来，温彬认为，预计5000亿元新型政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the social financing (社融) data for September, highlighting a slight increase in financing and a mixed performance across various components, indicating a cautious economic recovery and the need for structural optimization in credit policies [1][7]. Summary by Sections Social Financing Overview - In September, social financing increased by 3.5 trillion yuan, slightly above the market expectation of 3.3 trillion yuan, but down 229.7 billion yuan year-on-year, showing improvement from a previous decline of 465.5 billion yuan [1][7]. - The stock growth rate of social financing was 8.7%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][7]. Credit and Financing Components - Entity credit increased by 1.6 trillion yuan, down 366.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which is better than August but weaker than the same periods in March and June [8]. - Government bond financing rose by 1.2 trillion yuan, down 347.1 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [2][11]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 105 billion yuan, up 2.031 trillion yuan year-on-year, attributed to a low base from the previous year [3][12]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, with a 1.9 trillion yuan increase, the highest for the same period in five years [4][13]. - M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to a significant reduction in non-bank deposits [5][15]. Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall liquidity situation has improved, driven by fiscal pre-positioning and increased foreign exchange settlements, but the internal credit cycle has not yet visibly recovered [6][16]. - Key areas to watch include the effectiveness of new policy financial tools, potential new industry policies from upcoming important meetings, and the possibility of early issuance of local government debt limits for 2026 [6][16].

Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a plan to establish 28 million charging facilities nationwide by the end of 2027, providing over 300 million kilowatts of public charging capacity to meet the charging needs of more than 80 million electric vehicles, aiming for a doubling of charging service capacity [2] - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month and fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth. The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] Financial Data - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year. The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up by 7.2% year-on-year, and the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.58 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.5% year-on-year [3] - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to enterprises was approximately 3.1% in September, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year, indicating sustained low loan rates [3] - The total social financing scale increased by 30.09 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% as of the end of September [3] Commodity Market - Spot gold prices surged past $4200 per ounce for the first time in history, with a daily increase of over 1.4%. The price of domestic gold jewelry also rose significantly, with some prices exceeding 1235 yuan per gram [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of September 2025, the total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase [1][2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][4] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year growth [1][5] Social Financing Scale - As of September 2025, the social financing scale stock was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2] - The breakdown of financing includes: - RMB loans to the real economy at 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% - Foreign currency loans equivalent to 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% - Trust loans at 4.5 trillion yuan, up 5.7% - Government bonds at 92.55 trillion yuan, up 20.2% [2][3] Financing Structure - By the end of September, RMB loans accounted for 61.1% of the total social financing scale, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Government bonds saw an increase in their share to 21.2%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Cumulative Increase in Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first three quarters was 30.09 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in government bond financing by 4.28 trillion yuan [4] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.54 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 8.51 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] Money Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with an 8.4% year-on-year increase [5] - Narrow money (M1) was at 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, while cash in circulation (M0) was 13.58 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.5% increase [5] Deposit and Loan Growth - By the end of September, total deposits (including foreign currency) were 332.18 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits at 324.94 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth [6] - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan [8] Foreign Currency Deposits - Foreign currency deposits reached 1.02 trillion USD, marking a 20% year-on-year increase, with an addition of 165.8 billion USD in the first three quarters [7] Interbank Market Rates - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.45% in September, slightly higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [10] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of September, the national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.34 trillion USD, with the RMB exchange rate at 7.1055 per USD [11] Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In the first three quarters, cross-border RMB settlement under current accounts amounted to 13.06 trillion yuan, with direct investment settlements at 6.04 trillion yuan [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in credit and social financing in the first three quarters, indicating strong financial support for the real economy, with a notable shift towards direct financing channels [1][2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In the first three quarters, new RMB loans increased by approximately 14.75 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of about 1.29 trillion yuan in September [4]. - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2]. - Direct financing has become a significant contributor to social financing, with government bonds net financing reaching about 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply and Loan Structure - By the end of September, M2 grew by 8.4% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in corporate and consumer demand [3]. - The M1-M2 spread narrowed to 1.2%, reflecting improved business activity and a rebound in personal consumption [3]. - The proportion of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell to 48.3%, with over half of the new social financing coming from diverse channels such as government and corporate bonds [2]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Key industries like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing maintained strong growth, driving corporate financing demand [5]. - The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and adjustments in housing purchase policies in major cities have led to a recovery in personal loan demand, particularly in the real estate sector [6][7]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans remained low at around 3.1%, which is significantly lower than the previous year [7]. Group 4: Non-Bank Deposits and Market Dynamics - In the first three quarters, RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institution deposits growing faster than household deposits [8]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a reallocation of assets by residents in response to changing return rates, rather than a direct correlation with stock market fluctuations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of September, the total social financing stock exceeded 430 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial financial scale that meets the financing needs of the real economy, aligning with the shift from high-speed to high-quality economic development [1] Financial Metrics - As of September, M2 balance surpassed 330 trillion yuan, while the balance of RMB deposits exceeded 320 trillion yuan and loan balance exceeded 270 trillion yuan [1] - The average weighted interest rate for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans in September was approximately 3.1%, which is about 40 and 25 basis points lower than the same period last year, respectively [1] Economic Context - Current macroeconomic conditions are characterized by insufficient demand, low inflation, and low interest rates, with private sectors being more sensitive to interest rates [1] - The financial impact on the real economy will primarily occur through interest rate pathways, emphasizing the importance of understanding interest rate implications and the coordination between different market rates [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 435 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 435 billion yuan into the market [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term instruments remained stable, with a slight decline in the 7-day Shibor [1][2] - The overnight Shibor increased by 0.10 basis points to 1.3160%, while the 7-day Shibor decreased by 0.90 basis points to 1.4140% [2][3] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates showed narrow fluctuations, with DR007's transaction share rising to 4.5% [5] - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 decreased by 0.0 basis points and 0.2 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes dropping by 901 billion yuan and 456 billion yuan [5] - The overall funding environment was balanced and slightly loose, with overnight rates declining further after the open market operations [10] Group 3 - As of October 15, 120 interbank certificates of deposit were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 114.59 billion yuan [11] - The trading sentiment for primary certificates was generally average, while secondary certificates showed moderate trading sentiment with yields continuing the upward trend from the previous day [11] - The weighted average interest rates for various maturities showed slight increases compared to the previous day, indicating a tightening of spreads between different maturities [11] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of September 2025, the total social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [13] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year [13] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year, indicating a continued low interest rate environment [13]