Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials' speeches provide key guidance for future interest rate cuts, while government shutdowns create safe-haven buying pressure, but a strong dollar continues to exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term gold prices are constrained by both the strong dollar and interest rate expectations, with safe-haven sentiment providing a floor, likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern [2] - Recent observations show gold prices faced resistance at the $4000 level and have retreated to the $3950-$3970 support range [2] Group 2 - The K-line remains below the 20-day moving average, with weakening MACD momentum indicating a bearish short-term trend; the RSI is in a neutral to weak zone without clear divergence signals [3] - If gold prices break below the $3950 support, they may test the critical $3920 level; conversely, if prices stabilize above $4000 and break the recent downtrend line, bullish momentum may regain control [3] - The current gold market is in a triangular consolidation phase, with the $4050 level being a key battleground for bulls and bears [3] Group 3 - Today's gold trading focuses on two key ranges: a larger range of $4050-$3950 and a smaller range of $4000-$3962; a breakout above $3990 could signal a buying opportunity [5] - In a volatile market, the strategy should focus on high-low rhythm management, executing high sell and low buy strategies, and waiting for effective breakouts to follow the trend [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices have retreated to a critical support area, with significant weakening of bullish momentum and ongoing short-term downside risks [7] - A recent inventory increase of 5.202 million barrels has negated previous bullish signals, leading to heightened market caution regarding oil price outlook [7] - If oil prices break below the $59 support level, further downside may open up, potentially testing $58 and $56.8 levels; only a recovery above $61.50 would provide a basis for reversing the downtrend [7] Group 5 - The overall trend for oil prices is leaning towards a downward direction, with a focus on inventory trends and import changes; continued inventory increases could widen the downside potential for oil prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently trading around $3970 per ounce, influenced by recent U.S. employment data and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The U.S. private sector added 42,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations and reversing a decline from the previous two months, signaling stabilization in the labor market [1] - This positive employment data has put pressure on interest rate cut expectations, contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A stronger dollar has increased the cost of gold for holders of other currencies, suppressing global demand [1] - Gold, which does not yield interest, faces higher holding costs in an environment of a strong dollar or high interest rate expectations, making its price vulnerable [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy has heightened market volatility, with recent comments from Chairman Powell indicating that future decisions will be data-dependent [1] - This has led to mixed market sentiment regarding potential rate cuts in December [1] Group 4: Government Shutdown and Safe-Haven Demand - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has reached a historical record duration, is a significant source of market risk aversion [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown and economic risks may provide important support for gold prices as demand for safe-haven assets increases [1] Group 5: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have faced resistance near the $4000 mark and are currently in a range between $3950 and $3970 [3] - If gold prices fall below the $3950 support level, they may further decline to $3920; conversely, a rebound above $4000 could signal a potential upward trend [3]

投资者应关注美联储官员后续讲话，尤其是对12月利率决策的暗示。同时，美国政府停摆的进展也将继 续影响市场情绪。如果政府未能尽早恢复运作，可能推动黄金等避险资产的价格上涨。 美联储官员的鹰派言论加剧市场紧张情绪。尽管美联储已连续两次降息，鲍威尔主席表示劳动力市场虽 然降温，但尚未符合降息的理想条件，这加大了美联储可能继续紧缩的预期，进一步加剧黄金的下行压 力。同时，美国政府已进入第37天停摆，创历史最长纪录，给市场带来更多不确定性。政府停摆导致部 分数据发布延迟，ADP就业报告成为市场关注焦点，进一步放大了这些数据的影响。 黄金在触及3929美元低点后反弹，但未能突破4000美元的阻力位。当前金价维持在3970美元附近，短期 内的上涨空间受到美元强势的抑制。如果突破4000美元，黄金有望进一步上涨，目标指向4082美元。然 而，若跌破3929美元低点，可能会回落至3854美元支撑位。技术面显示，相对强弱指数（RSI）处于中 性水平，买方力量尚未完全恢复，黄金短期内仍将面临美元的压力。 美国经济数据强劲，美元维持强势，黄金面临短期回调压力，未突破4000美元关口。尽管如此，全球不 确定性依然为黄金提供支撑，特别是 ...

Group 1 - The overnight rise in U.S. Treasury yields was driven by strong economic data, with all maturities experiencing increases [2] - The latest non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 190,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rose by 3.9% year-on-year, above the expected 3.8% [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy path remains unclear, with Powell emphasizing that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which could lead to further rebounds in Treasury yields if the Fed slows its rate-cutting pace [2] Group 2 - Despite strong economic data, inflation pressures continue to be a focal point for the market, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index rising by 3% year-on-year in September and 0.3% month-on-month, driven by a 4.1% increase in energy prices and rapid food price increases [3] - The U.S. Treasury has alleviated long-term Treasury supply pressures through increased short-term bond issuance and adjustments in financing strategies, contributing to a decline in "term premium" [3] Group 3 - Columbia Threadneedle bond manager Ed Al-Hussainy noted that the core issue is not whether to buy U.S. Treasuries, but rather if there are better alternatives available, highlighting the challenges faced by those who shorted Treasuries earlier in the year [4]

来源：中国金融信息网 因美国政府"停摆"导致官方数据延迟，ADP就业报告成为焦点。数据显示，美国10月ADP就业人数新增 4.2万人，预期2.8万人，前值由-3.2万人修正至-2.9万人。 目前美联储政策制定者面临劳动力市场担忧与通胀风险上升的两难局面，若在ADP数据之后的系列数据 继续有助于缓解就业担忧，将支持美元走强。 ADP报告显示，就业增长从此前两个月的疲软状态中反弹，但反弹的范围并不广泛。教育和医疗保健、 贸易、运输和公用事业引领了增长。在专业商业服务、信息、休闲和酒店业，雇主连续第三个月裁员。 ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson称，自去年7月以来，私人雇主在10月首次增加了就业岗位，但与今 年早些时候的报告相比，招聘人数并不多。与此同时，一年多来，薪酬增长基本持平，表明供需变化是 平衡的。 编辑：王晓伟 数据公布后，美元小幅上涨。推动美元指数上行的动力源于美联储政策前景的谨慎转向。上周美联储主 席鲍威尔明确指出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维 持"观望"态度。超预期的ADP就业报告继续支撑投资者对年内再次降息的预期降温。 当前美元指数的波动 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. job market shows signs of stabilization after two months of decline, but overall labor demand continues to slow, and wage growth remains stagnant, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's decision on potential rate cuts in December [1][6]. Employment Data - In October, ADP reported an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 30,000 and reversing the previous month's revised loss of 32,000 jobs [1][4]. - The job growth in October reflects a cautious hiring trend among businesses, with 32,000 jobs added in the service sector and 9,000 in the goods-producing sector [4][6]. Wage Growth - Wage growth has remained stable over the past year, indicating a new balance in the labor market supply and demand, alleviating previous post-pandemic tensions [6]. Corporate Layoffs - Major companies like Amazon, Starbucks, and Target have announced significant layoffs, raising concerns about the employment outlook despite initial claims for unemployment benefits remaining low [3][6]. Federal Reserve Policy - Following two consecutive rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted a very slow cooling of the labor market, indicating uncertainty regarding further rate cuts in December [6]. - The moderate employment data provides mixed signals for the Fed, as it alleviates fears of rapid deterioration while highlighting the need for careful consideration of economic trends due to slowing demand and stagnant wage growth [6].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 for the first time since May 2025, reaching a low of $99,075.89, representing a decline of over 20% from its historical high of $126,080 on October 6 [2][4] - Ethereum also saw a substantial drop, with a decline of nearly 35% from its peak of $4,946.05 on August 24 [2][4] - Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ripple and Binance Coin, also faced varying degrees of decline [2] Causes of the Downturn - Analysts attribute the Bitcoin crash to a combination of cooling market sentiment and the unwinding of leverage, suggesting that market sentiment may gradually recover once the pressure from capital outflows eases [4][5] - The broader market context includes a decline in U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones falling approximately 0.53%, the S&P 500 down 1.17%, and the Nasdaq dropping 2%, indicating a general risk-off sentiment among investors [4] - The cryptocurrency fear index has reached a six-month low of 20, prompting investors to withdraw from more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies [4] Impact of External Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% has added to the uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market [5] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has reached its 36th day, raises concerns about the Fed's potential actions in the upcoming December meeting [5] - A significant number of liquidations occurred in the market, with over 438,736 traders liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling approximately $1.719 billion, primarily from long positions [5][6] Market Dynamics - The current market situation is characterized by a chain reaction of price breaks, insufficient margin, and forced liquidations, leading to further price declines [6] - The overall downturn is viewed as a concentrated adjustment under liquidity stress, with potential for market sentiment to improve once leverage is cleared and capital outflow pressures diminish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a mild rebound after a significant drop, with prices currently fluctuating around $3938 per ounce, following a nearly 2% decline the previous day, attributed to a strong dollar and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [1]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold remains weak, with short-term price movements indicating further downside potential. Key moving averages suggest a bearish trend, with the 20-period simple moving average at $4002 and the 100-period moving average at $4105, indicating downward pressure [3]. - On the daily chart, gold is still in a correction phase, trading below the 20-day moving average at $4088. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are positioned at $3596 and $3359, respectively, indicating a long-term upward trend but weakened short-term momentum [4]. Market Influences - U.S. economic data is crucial for determining gold's direction, with the ADP employment report being a key focus. The market anticipates an addition of 25,000 jobs in October, which could impact the dollar's performance and subsequently gold prices [4]. - Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased from over 90% to approximately 71%, which directly influences gold's attractiveness as it does not yield interest in a high-rate environment [4]. Price Levels and Support - Gold shows signs of stabilization after short-term selling but lacks a clear reversal signal. A price recovery above $4088 could restore upward momentum, while failure to rebound may lead to testing long-term support levels at $3596 or $3359 [5].

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 周二，部分归因于美元升至三个月高点，黄金价格暴跌近2%。目前交易员静待美国经济数据，以寻 找和美联储政策有关的线索。 2. 美国自动数据处理公司(ADP)10月1日发布的数据显示，今年9月美国私营部门减少3.2万个就业岗位， 出现2023年3月以来最大降幅，远低于此前增加约5万个就业岗位的市场预期。 芝商所(CME)的"美联储观察"工具显示，交易员目前认为美联储在12月9-10日会议上降息的可能性为 71%，从一周前的超过90%明显下滑。 | | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 日内方向 | | | | | 阻力 3960 | | 3970 | 3986 | | 支撑 304 T | | 3931 | 391 2 | | 动能 | 动力强（实时变化）全品种量化周期大于３年，参考价值≥67.1% | | | | | 欧元兑美元 (EURUSD) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏多 日内方向 | | | | | 1.1502 阻力 | | ...

Group 1 - The commodity market is experiencing a collective adjustment, with oil prices dropping after a four-day increase, and basic metals like copper and aluminum also declining [1][3] - WTI crude oil fell below $61, a decrease of 0.8%, primarily due to a strong dollar and concerns over supply surplus, as OPEC+ announced no production increase for the first quarter [3][4] - Copper prices dropped 2.4% at one point, closing down 1.8% at $10,663.5 per ton, as supply concerns eased following positive news from Chile's national copper company [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices fell by 1.7% to $3,934 per ounce, influenced by a strong dollar and a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [4] - The recent decline in commodity prices is attributed to short-term factors such as the dollar's strength and changing supply expectations, rather than a long-term trend shift [5] - Recommendations for long-term investors include monitoring actual supply changes in oil, focusing on metals linked to "hard demand" like copper, and waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making moves in gold [5]