作 者丨 吴斌 编 辑丨 张星 江佩佩 5月29日晚，美股集体高开。但随着最新公布的数据显示美国经济全面收缩以及白宫最新表态后，股市明显跳水。截至发稿，道指已经转跌。 纳指和标普500指数同步跳水。 全球股指期货也明显跳水。 科技七巨头多数上涨，英伟达绩后涨超5%，特斯拉涨近2%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | NVDA | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 141.475 | 6.665 | 4.94% | | TSLA | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 363.500 | 6.600 | 1.85% | | AMZN | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 207.315 | 2.595 | 1.27% | | AAPL | 苹果(APPLE) | 201.270 | 0.850 | 0.42% | | META | 脸书(META PLATFORMS) | 646.190 | 2.610 | 0.41% | | MSFT | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 459.250 | 1.890 | 0.41% | | GOOG | ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月29日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 2月29日 | 2月28日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | Brent | 65.31 | 64.90 | 0.41 | 0.63% | 美元/桶 | | WIT | 62.31 | 61.84 | 0.47 | 0.76% | | | ਟ | 457.40 | 453.60 | 3.80 | 0.84% | 元/相 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.23 | 1.17 | 0.06 | 5.13% | | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.29 | 1.22 | 0.07 | 5.74% | 美元/桶 | | SC MI-M3 | 5.10 | 4.00 | 1.10 | 27.50% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 3.00 | 3.06 | -0.06 | -1.96% | | | EFS | 1.94 | 1.96 | -0.02 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by Indonesia's industrial policies, global trade tensions, and raw material prices, with current prices stabilizing but facing downward pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In Q1, Indonesia's industrial policies positively impacted the stainless steel market, with prices peaking at 13,800 CNY/ton [1] - Following the implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, stainless steel futures dropped significantly, reaching a low of below 12,600 CNY/ton [1] - As global trade tensions eased, nickel-iron prices continued to decline, leading to a lack of upward momentum for stainless steel prices [1] Group 2: Nickel Supply and Pricing - The current supply of Indonesian nickel ore remains tight, with domestic prices for 1.6%-1.8% grade nickel ore stabilizing around 60 USD/wet ton [1] - If the Indonesian government reduces nickel ore production quotas, it could exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in Q3, potentially benefiting stainless steel prices [1] - Nickel raw material costs account for approximately 61% of the cost structure for the mainstream 300 series stainless steel, indicating significant sensitivity to nickel price changes [1] Group 3: Nickel Iron and Chromium Prices - Nickel iron prices have seen a decline from 1,030 CNY/nickel at the end of March to 940 CNY/nickel, but recently rebounded to around 970 CNY/nickel, providing some cost support for stainless steel [2] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are under pressure due to the resumption of production at ferrochrome plants and reduced output from some stainless steel manufacturers, with costs in southern and northern regions reported at 8,561 CNY/50 base tons and 8,362 CNY/50 base tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Production and Inventory - In May, domestic stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4899 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.36% but a year-on-year increase of 5.76% [2] - Recent production cuts from stainless steel manufacturers, such as a three-month shutdown at Indonesia's Qingshan Steel and a planned 10-15 day shutdown at a steel plant in East China, have had limited impact on the futures market due to high overall supply levels [2] Group 5: Demand and Market Outlook - The second quarter is traditionally a slow season for stainless steel demand, with the real estate market showing weak recovery indicators [3] - Export challenges due to tariffs and new regulations are expected to limit improvements in stainless steel demand [3] - Social inventory of stainless steel has been accumulating, with a reported increase of 0.85% to 1.1177 million tons in major markets [3] - Overall, while production cuts and rising nickel iron prices provide some support, weak demand and slow inventory digestion are likely to keep stainless steel prices in a range of 12,600 to 13,200 CNY/ton in the short term [3]

据北京日报消息，2025年5月22日，外交部副部长马朝旭同美国常务副国务卿兰多通电话，就中美关系及共同关心的重要问题交换了意见。双方同意 继续保持沟通。 特朗普（资料图） 稀土（资料图） 美国F-35战机每架需417公斤稀土材料，特斯拉人形机器人每台消耗23公斤稀土，然而，美国试图绕开中国供应链的企图最终落空。在联合声明中， 并未出现美方所期望的相关条款。这背后是冰冷的现实，中国在稀土产业上的优势地位并非一朝一夕形成，而是经过多年的发展和积累。中方在协 议中明确保留管制权，仅承诺打击走私，这一立场既体现了中国维护自身产业安全的决心，也向世界表明，中国不会在核心利益问题上轻易让步。 在这次通话中，我国就只答应了一件事，那就是同意继续保持沟通。在这之前，中美高层日内瓦会谈结束后，美国将对中国商品加征关税从145%降 至30%，中国也将对美国商品加征关税从125%降至10%，双方降幅相同。那次会谈就是在特朗普多次向中国释放对话信号的背景下，我国在经过评 估过后才同意的。从这一点其实也不难看出，特朗普确实对关税战感到了害怕。 美国对中国加税的行为换来了中国的反制，在中国多次有效的反制之下，美国的第一季度GDP都出现了 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has signaled new tariffs on European products, potentially increasing tariffs by 50% on certain EU goods starting June 1, which could significantly impact European companies like Airbus and Volkswagen [5][11][12] - Japan has halted trade with China following U.S. pressure, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and potential alignment with U.S. interests [12][14] - The U.S. strategy may involve leveraging allies to create a "coalition" against China, aiming to apply maximum pressure during trade negotiations [14][16] Group 2 - China's manufacturing is deeply integrated into the U.S. economy, with essential goods that American consumers rely on, making it difficult for the U.S. to fully substitute Chinese imports [18][20] - The global supply chain is adapting, as Chinese companies are exploring alternatives to U.S. propane, indicating a shift in sourcing strategies that could undermine U.S. market positions [20][22] - The ongoing trade negotiations are complex, with each side calculating their moves carefully, suggesting that the situation is far from resolution [24]

司公开发行可转换公司债券 2025 年跟踪评级报告 中鹏信评【2025】跟踪第【78】号 01 信用评级报告声明 除因本次评级事项本评级机构与评级对象构成委托关系外，本评级机构及评级从业人员与评级对象不存 在任何足以影响评级行为独立、客观、公正的关联关系。 本评级机构与评级从业人员已履行尽职调查义务，有充分理由保证所出具的评级报告遵循了真实、客 观、 公正原则，但不对评级对象及其相关方提供或已正式对外公布信息的合法性、真实性、准确性和完整性 作任何保证。 本评级机构依据内部信用评级标准和工作程序对评级结果作出独立判断，不受任何组织或个人的影响。 本评级报告观点仅为本评级机构对评级对象信用状况的个体意见，不作为购买、出售、持有任何证券的 建议。本评级机构不对任何机构或个人因使用本评级报告及评级结果而导致的任何损失负责。 本次评级结果自本评级报告所注明日期起生效，有效期为被评证券的存续期。同时，本评级机构已对受 评对象的跟踪评级事项做出了明确安排，并有权在被评证券存续期间变更信用评级。本评级机构提醒报 告使用者应及时登陆本公司网站关注被评证券信用评级的变化情况。 本评级报告版权归本评级机构所有，未经授权不得修改、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]

Group 1 - The global tire market is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing automobile ownership, with major consumption concentrated in Asia, North America, Central Europe, and Western Europe, accounting for about 80% of the global market share [1] - China is a leading tire producer, accounting for nearly half of the global production, with 60% of its tires exported worldwide [1] - The non-road tire segment, which includes applications in agriculture, mining, and construction, is dominated by international tire giants due to high technical barriers [1] Group 2 - Hai'an Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is preparing for an IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, focusing on the development, production, and sales of giant all-steel radial tires [2][4] - The company has a history dating back to 2005 and has developed a full range of all-steel giant tire products from 49 inches to 63 inches [4] - Hai'an Rubber aims to raise approximately 29.52 billion yuan through its IPO to expand production capacity and upgrade automation [10] Group 3 - In 2024, the sales of all-steel giant tires accounted for 74.01% of Hai'an Rubber's revenue, while mining tire operation management contributed 25.99% [16] - The company has seen a significant increase in revenue, with figures of approximately 1.508 billion yuan, 2.251 billion yuan, and 2.3 billion yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [23] - The gross profit margin of Hai'an Rubber is notably higher than the industry average, with margins of 39.65%, 47.63%, and 48.71% over the past three years [24] Group 4 - The company faces challenges such as rising accounts receivable, with values of approximately 342 million yuan, 418 million yuan, and 625 million yuan over the reporting periods [18] - Hai'an Rubber's international sales are heavily reliant on markets like Russia, which accounted for over 44% of its revenue in 2024 [18][23] - The company has a relatively low R&D expense ratio compared to industry peers, which may pose risks as competition in the all-steel giant tire sector intensifies [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of automotive parts suppliers in the context of U.S.-China trade tensions and tariffs, highlighting how these suppliers have managed to maintain their market position despite geopolitical challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Tariffs - The U.S. government's tariffs on Chinese products have not significantly affected the sales, prices, or profits of automotive parts suppliers, as customers bear the cost of tariffs [2][4]. - The recent exemption of automotive parts manufactured in Mexico from tariffs under the USMCA agreement has alleviated concerns for many suppliers [5][6]. Group 2: Supplier Resilience - Automotive parts suppliers exhibit unique resilience compared to complete vehicle manufacturers, as they have integrated deeply into the global supply chain and have established long-term relationships with clients based on technology, quality, and trust [5][6]. - The cost impact of tariffs on the overall vehicle production is minimal, making clients less sensitive to these additional costs [4][5]. Group 3: Export Trends - Despite trade headwinds, China's automotive parts export scale has shown steady growth, with exports reaching $8.376 billion in March 2025, a 12.6% increase year-on-year [7]. - The automotive parts industry has become an important production and supply base globally, with many companies successfully navigating the complexities of international markets [7][8]. Group 4: Challenges in High-Tech Sectors - High-tech sectors, such as battery manufacturing, face more significant challenges in overseas expansion due to the complexity of supply chains and the need for specialized talent [8][9]. - Some Chinese companies' advanced technologies have become obstacles in North America, where local market conditions differ significantly from those in China [8][9]. Group 5: Strategic Considerations for Expansion - Automotive manufacturers prioritize market size and growth rates when expanding internationally, while parts suppliers focus on following their clients and optimizing production costs [10][11]. - Southeast Asia and Mexico are popular destinations for parts suppliers due to favorable demographics, economic growth, and proximity to the U.S. market [11].

自今年1月中旬以来，国际油价累计跌幅已超10%，核心压力源自两大因素：一是特朗普政府对多国加 征关税引发的全球贸易紧张局势，中国等经济体采取的反制措施进一步加剧市场对能源需求前景的担 忧;二是OPEC+产油国联盟逐步退出自愿减产协议，其持续增产行为与需求疲软预期形成共振。 据知情人士透露，该组织已决定将原定于6月1日召开的联合部长级监督委员会(JMMC)会议提前至5月31 日举行，会议将重点讨论沙特、俄罗斯等8个核心成员国7月的具体产量配额。上周，OPEC+技术委员 会已就"连续第三个月增产"展开初步磋商，但具体增幅仍存分歧。 当前市场处于多空因素交织的敏感期：一方面，贸易摩擦升级可能抑制全球经济增长及原油消费;另一 方面，OPEC+若能在会议上释放谨慎增产信号，或为油价提供阶段性底部支撑。交易员正等待更多政 策端线索，以判断下半年供需平衡表的演变方向。 智通财经APP获悉，在石油输出国组织(OPEC+)即将召开关键产量政策会议之际，国际油价维持窄幅波 动。市场参与者正密切关注欧美贸易关系缓和的可能性，同时消化主要经济体地缘政策变动带来的连锁 反应。 受伦敦证券交易所和纽约市场因假日休市影响，5月27日(周一 ...