投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-11 初申失业金人数下降，金价上行受阻 ⾦价连续第⼆天上涨，⽬前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不⾜。 美元⾛软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注，为⾦价提 供⽀撑。 重点资讯： 1）美国总统特朗普周三向七个小型贸易伙伴发出了最终关税通知， 与此同时，美国政府与其最大贸易伙伴欧盟距离达成协议更近一步。 2）布鲁塞尔正在与美国方面讨论一系列措施，旨在保护欧盟汽车产 业免受美国高额进口关税的影响。这些措施包括削减关税、设定进口 配额，以及对欧盟汽车制造商对美出口提供抵免。 3）俄罗斯国防部称："俄罗斯联邦武装部队使用高精度远程武器和 无人机对基辅的军工企业和军用机场基础设施实施了集群打击。" 4）美国至7月5日当周初请失业金人数 22.7万人，预期23.5万人， 前值由23.3万人修正为23.2万人。 价格逻辑： 金价连续第二天上涨，目前维持在3300美元以上，但整体多头动能不 足。美元走软、美国国债收益率下滑以及市场对美联储降息的押注， 为金价提供支撑。同时，全球贸易紧张局势也推动投资者涌入黄金这 一避 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]

在全球金融市场聚焦于美国与其贸易伙伴之间不断升温的谈判局势之际，黄金价格在周三表现出罕见的 韧性。尽管美元指数持续高企，给贵金属市场带来抑制作用，但黄金仍小幅走高，现货金交投于每盎司 3318美元附近，反映出避险资金仍在悄然流入。这种表现不禁引发一个疑问：美元强势的背景下，黄金 缘何没有进一步下挫？ DLSMARKETS从当前局势看，黄金之所以没有被美元的压力完全压制，背后是多重情绪交织的结果。 一方面，美国总统特朗普再度向七个主要贸易伙伴发出关税信函，强化"8月1日关税生效"这一时间表， 使得全球贸易紧张氛围再度升温。尽管市场已部分"习惯"其反复横跳的谈判策略，但多国表态强硬，尤 其是巴西明确提出将依据本国法律对美关税行为进行报复，贸易摩擦的反复和加剧始终为避险情绪提供 支撑。此时，即便美元走强，黄金作为对冲工具的吸引力也并未完全丧失。 另一方面，美联储会议纪要虽未明确释放降息信号，但从措辞来看，仍保留了政策灵活性的空间。特别 是在关税政策或对中长期通胀构成扰动的背景下，部分官员已提出预期内的风险情景，这使得市场对未 来政策路径的分歧再度扩大。不少资金因此更愿意通过增配黄金来防范政策误判或滞后所带来的资产波 ...

Group 1: Silver Futures Market Performance - On July 10, the main silver futures in Shanghai reported a price of 8887 yuan per gram, with a decline of 0.13% [1] - The opening price for the day was 8880 yuan per gram, with a maximum of 8911 yuan per gram and a minimum of 8856 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Macro News - President Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, which will impact industries reliant on this metal, including automotive, housing, and appliances [2] - Copper is the third most consumed metal globally, with nearly half of U.S. consumption coming from imports, primarily from Chile [2] - This tariff is part of a series of tariffs aimed at promoting domestic mining and metal processing, following previous increases in steel and aluminum tariffs [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Guoxin Futures noted that precious metals are experiencing mixed fluctuations, with New York gold futures rising by 0.1% to $3321 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.19% to 771.02 yuan per gram [3] - New York silver futures fell by 11.9 cents to $36.63 per ounce, and Shanghai silver dropped by 0.33% to 8870 yuan per kilogram [3] - The outlook for precious metals suggests continued fluctuations, with key support levels for gold at around $3300 per ounce and silver at $36.5 per ounce, influenced by deepening trade tensions and geopolitical disturbances [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The first half of 2025 saw a mixed performance in the fund market, with equity funds performing well while bond fund sizes declined [2][3] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a mild recovery with structural contradictions, where production outpaces consumption and deflationary pressures persist [3][4] - The industrial value-added in May 2025 grew by 5.8% year-on-year, while retail sales increased by 6.4%, driven by policies encouraging consumption [3][4] Group 2: Fund Performance - Over 80% of the 12,897 public funds saw net value growth in the first half of 2025, with several funds achieving growth rates exceeding 80% [5] - The number of newly established funds reached 672, raising a total of 540.85 billion yuan, although the issuance scale decreased by nearly 20% compared to the previous year [5] Group 3: Equity Funds - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced overall gains, with the North Star 50 Index rising by 39.45% in the first half of 2025 [6] - The launch of ETF funds significantly contributed to the growth of stock funds, with 387 new stock funds established, marking a 183% increase in issuance compared to the previous year [7] Group 4: Sector Performance - The top 10 performing public funds were all actively managed equity funds, with seven being focused on the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting its strong performance [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 26.1% increase in the A-share innovative drug concept, driven by domestic consumption policies and accelerated domestic substitution [9] Group 5: AI Sector - The AI sector experienced volatility, with the leading AI fund showing a -20.57% return, attributed to a mismatch between investment strategy and market trends [10] - Despite the struggles of some AI funds, the technology sector remains strong, with the DeepSeek index rising by 42.51% in the first half of 2025 [10] Group 6: Fixed Income Funds - The bond fund market saw a significant recovery in June 2025, with the number of newly established bond funds reaching a record high for the year [11] - Credit bonds attracted increased investment, with net subscriptions for credit bond ETFs exceeding 800 billion yuan in the past month [12] Group 7: Future Outlook - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 suggests a focus on high-return assets and sectors with long-term growth potential, such as agriculture, transportation, and technology [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent bond market trends are mainly about compressing various convex points. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields have faced resistance at key levels since June 11. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.65%. In July, the bond market may continue to flatten various spreads, and from August to September, it may further open up space with changes in fundamentals and trade information [2][9][41]. - The money supply is unlikely to drive further decline in bond yields. The bond market has fully priced in the loose money supply since the second quarter, and there is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Instead, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [2][9]. - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Different Types of Bond Bull: Bond Market Seeking Convex Point Returns - Since June 11, the 10 - year Treasury yield has faced resistance at 1.6%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield at around 1.8%. In the nearly one - month trading period, neither could break through downward. The bond market trends from June 11 to July 8 focused on compressing convex points [13]. - **Term Convex Point**: The long - end spreads of interest - rate bonds converged, and the spreads of long - duration credit bonds also compressed significantly. For example, the yields of 20Y and 50Y Treasuries decreased by 6.5bp and 7.5bp respectively, and the spreads of 5Y and 10Y AA + medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 6.4bp and 11.1bp [13]. - **Variety Convex Point**: The overall credit spread compressed to a historical low. Longer - duration and lower - grade varieties performed well, especially Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For instance, the credit spread of AA - rated urban investment bonds compressed by 6.7bp, and for 5Y Tier 2 bonds, the compression order was AA > AA + > AAA - [13]. - **Liquidity Convex Point**: The difference in liquidity premiums between active and non - active bonds weakened, and the spread between new and old bonds compressed significantly. For example, the spread between the active and previous active 10Y China Development Bank bonds compressed from 4.3bp to 1.3bp [14]. 3.2 Money Fails to Drive the Bond Market to Break Through Key Points - Since the second quarter, the money supply has been loose, but the bond market has fully priced it. There is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Due to the rising inter - bank leverage ratio and large - scale lending by major banks, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [27]. - Only Treasuries with a term of over 5 years have positive carry in the current loose money supply environment. If the money price tightens marginally to around 1.6%, the range of Treasuries with positive carry will be compressed to those over 7 years. The central bank's desired market interest rate is within a range, and currently, the money price is close to the lower limit, so monetary easing is unlikely to drive further decline in interest rates [30]. 3.3 Bond Market Breaking Through Key Points Depends on Fundamentals and Trade Frictions - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. - **Fundamental Concerns**: - Real estate sales were relatively resilient in the first half of the year, but there is uncertainty about further recovery in the second half. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has been under downward pressure since the end of June [9]. - Consumption growth ultimately depends on urban residents' per capita disposable income and marginal propensity to consume. The "trade - in" policy has temporarily boosted consumption growth, but further growth requires an increase in residents' income or marginal propensity to consume, which are more complex and need further observation [9]. - Trade frictions may lead to "one - time" pricing in the bond market. At the beginning of this round of trade frictions, the bond market declined by 15bp in two trading days and rose by 5bp in one trading day after the Sino - US negotiation on May 12. US President Trump announced that "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1, and as the grace period approaches, attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade frictions in the bond market [9].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月9日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 通胀偏弱，红利指数再度领涨 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.18%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨512.38亿元。期 指均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会 改变"。 2.中国6月PPI同比下降3.6%，预期降3.2%，前值降3.3%；中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，预期持平，前值降 0.1%。 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.16 | -0.18 | -0.38 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 8.2089 | 4.2379 | 7.0784 | 16.2388 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.2799 | -0.4117 | -2.2217 | -5.5394 | | 持仓量（万手 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic activity in the US shows slight improvement, with structural differentiation in employment data [1] - The US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July [1] - Despite a cooling in US consumption and inflation, the second quarter economic outlook remains optimistic, with moderate growth expected for the year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The US non-farm employment population has exceeded expectations for four consecutive months, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - The unemployment rate has decreased due to immigration policy impacts, and there are no significant layoffs reported despite tight job supply [2] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not provided positive indications for a rate cut in July, leading to increased market divergence [2] - Market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut are now focused on September, but trade tensions could influence inflation and affect these expectations [2] Gold Market Dynamics - As of June, China's central bank's gold reserves increased to 2,298.55 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation, which supports gold prices [3] - The demand for gold from global central banks has decreased overall, but China's continued purchases provide a stabilizing effect on prices [3] - The international gold price is facing resistance around $3,450 per ounce, with short-term fluctuations expected between $3,300 and $3,400 per ounce [3]

标普目前涨0.1%，纳指涨0.18%。 欧元兑美元跌0.03%，暂报1.1704。 美国总统特朗普宣称，可能距离向欧盟发关税信还有两天时间。 批评欧盟起诉美国科技公司苹果和谷歌的做法。 在某些关税信函里，税率为60%、70%。 特朗普自认为，本来可以在贸易问题上更加强硬。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is extending the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, which has led to market volatility and concerns over trade tensions [1][2][3]. Tariff Details - Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Tunisia will face a 25% tariff, South Africa and Bosnia will see a 30% tariff, Indonesia will incur a 32% tariff, Serbia and Bangladesh will face a 35% tariff, Thailand and Cambodia will be subject to a 36% tariff, and Laos and Myanmar will face tariffs as high as 40% [2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new tariffs, U.S. markets experienced a "double hit" with declines in both stocks and bonds. The Dow Jones fell by 0.94%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.91% on July 7 [3][4]. Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices in the U.S., particularly affecting imports from Japan and South Korea, which include automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. The total value of goods exported to the U.S. from Japan and South Korea was $280 billion last year [3]. Investor Sentiment - Concerns over escalating trade tensions are leading to fears of a repeat of earlier market turmoil, with investors worried about the potential for increased inflation and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Currency and Debt Market - The U.S. dollar saw a slight rebound amid concerns over emerging market currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, indicating increased attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term rebound in the dollar, long-term prospects remain uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions and concerns over U.S. economic sustainability, which could lead to a shift in investment away from the dollar [6][7].