新华社莫斯科7月28日电 综述｜经济降温通胀回落 俄央行再降息 新华社记者包诺敏 继6月初将基准利率下调1个百分点后，俄罗斯中央银行25日决定将基准利率进一步下调2个百分点 至18%。分析人士认为，俄上半年经济增长放缓、通胀压力缓和是促使俄央行进一步降息的关键因素。 俄央行发表声明说，当前通胀下行速度快于预期，国内需求增长放缓，经济活动保持向均衡增长路 径回归趋势，决定维持适度从紧货币政策，以促使通胀率在2026年回归目标水平。 多名经济学家指出，俄央行最新降息举措可能预示新一轮降息周期的开始。尽管联邦预算调整、卢 布汇率波动等潜在变量可能延缓降息节奏，但主流分析预测，俄央行或将于9月继续降息，并于年底前 将基准利率下调至15%。 俄罗斯经济发展部本月初公布的数据显示，今年1至5月俄罗斯国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长 1.5%，低于去年同期5%的增速。通货膨胀率持续下降，6月份降至9.4%。 今年上半年，受高利率影响，俄罗斯民众贷款负担加重，汽车和房地产等大宗消费市场表现低迷。 俄罗斯工业和贸易部援引分析机构数据披露，2025年上半年俄罗斯新乘用车销量同比下降约26%，至 52.67万辆，其中6月份下降27% ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund has shown a mixed performance with a recent decline, but overall, it has experienced significant growth in assets and positive long-term returns, driven by macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of July 28, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.32%, with a latest price of 7.37 yuan. Over the past month, it has accumulated a rise of 1.16% [2]. - The gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 8214.56 million yuan over the last 19 trading days, with an average daily net inflow of 432.35 million yuan [3]. - The fund's net asset value has increased by 80.09% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two in comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The total scale of 53 gold-themed funds reached 2469 billion yuan, marking an increase of 1285 billion yuan or 108.53% since the end of last year [2]. - Recent rumors about reduced U.S. tariffs have led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, causing precious metals to weaken. However, a potential new upward trend in gold prices is anticipated due to the ongoing interest rate cuts [2]. - The macroeconomic backdrop remains unstable, with a long-term logic suggesting a weakening of the U.S. dollar's global position, which could provide sustained support for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Fund Metrics - The gold ETF fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.36, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3]. - The tracking error for the gold ETF fund over the past two months is 0.002%, demonstrating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's central bank has resumed its interest rate cut cycle by lowering the benchmark rate by 300 basis points from 46% to 43%, indicating a cautious approach to future rate adjustments amid stabilizing inflation trends [1][7]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank's decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations, slightly exceeding the median forecast [1]. - Turkey's annual inflation rate decreased to 35.05% in June, supported by falling prices in key categories such as food and beverages [1]. - The central bank plans to make future rate cuts in a prudent manner, assessing economic conditions in subsequent meetings [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the interest rate cut, the Istanbul Stock Exchange saw a rise, with the Istanbul 100 Index increasing by over 1% [2]. - The Istanbul 100 Index reached 10,724.63, reflecting a daily increase of 132.65 points or 1.25% [3]. Group 3: Currency Movements - The Turkish lira has depreciated against the US dollar, indicating potential market volatility following the central bank's policy changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - Ningbo Bank has reported positive performance in its earnings announcement, aligning with the trend observed in other East China banks, indicating a general improvement in revenue growth amidst a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - Ningbo Bank achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.91% in the first half of 2025, an increase from 5.63% in the first quarter [1] - Hangzhou Bank reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 3.89% in the first half of 2025, up from 2.22% in the first quarter [1] - Changshu Bank experienced a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.10% in the first half of 2025, slightly higher than the 10.04% growth in the first quarter [1] Group 2: Trend Analysis - All three banks, including Ningbo Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Changshu Bank, demonstrated a trend of improving revenue growth quarter by quarter during the current interest rate reduction cycle [1]

Group A: Historical Review - The change in the bond yield curve's steepness is different from unilateral changes in bond yields, as it measures the relative changes in yields of bonds with different maturities [2] - Historical periods of flattening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include April 1988 to 1989, October 1992 to December 1994, August 2003 to June 2006, December 2013 to December 2018, and March 2021 to March 2023, often corresponding with the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycles [2][3] - The flattening of the yield curve typically occurs before the Federal Reserve begins raising rates, while the end of the flattening often coincides with or slightly precedes the end of rate hikes [3] Group B: Yield Curve Dynamics - During rate hike cycles, short-term Treasury yields rise, and when long-term yields also increase, the short-term yields tend to rise more significantly, contributing to the flattening of the yield curve [3][17] - The behavior of long-term yields can vary, sometimes showing volatility or decline, which can lead to a flattening of the curve due to differing influences on short and long-term rates [3][4] - The 2-year Treasury yield closely follows the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, while the 10-year yield reflects broader macroeconomic conditions and inflation expectations [4][17] Group C: Steepening of the Yield Curve - Historical periods of steepening in the U.S. Treasury yield curve include March 1989 to September 1992, May 2000 to August 2003, February 2007 to December 2009, and January 2019 to April 2021, typically aligning with Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [13][15] - The onset of steepening often occurs before the actual rate cuts begin, indicating market anticipation of monetary policy changes [13][15] - In rate cut cycles, both short and long-term yields generally decline, but short-term yields tend to decrease more significantly, contributing to the steepening of the yield curve [13][17] Group D: Economic and Monetary Policy Interactions - The changes in the yield curve are closely linked to monetary policy and economic cycles, with flattening periods usually corresponding to rate hike cycles and steepening periods to rate cut cycles [17] - Short-term yields play a dominant role in shaping the yield curve during these cycles, with their movements significantly influencing the overall curve dynamics [17] - Discrepancies between economic cycles and monetary policy cycles can lead to divergent movements in long-term yields, especially during transitional periods between rate changes [17]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its potential leadership changes, particularly in the context of the Trump administration's influence on monetary policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Leadership Change on Fed Independence** The forced removal of Chairman Powell could severely challenge the Fed's independence, potentially leading to significant market turmoil across equities, bonds, and currencies, referred to as a "triple kill" [1][5][7] 2. **Market Reactions to New Chair Nominees** The market typically reacts positively when a new Fed chair is perceived as dovish, with U.S. stocks generally rising, while the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields may initially decline before returning to previous trends [2][11] 3. **Trump's Influence on Fed Policy** Trump's public criticism of Powell's monetary policy has led to market volatility, with speculation about a shadow chair influencing Powell's decisions. This speculation has resulted in a wave of rate cut trading despite strong economic data [3][9] 4. **Feasibility of Changing Fed Leadership** While the Fed operates independently, the President can influence its decisions by appointing or dismissing board members. The legal grounds for dismissal are ambiguous, and any forced removal could face judicial challenges [4][6] 5. **Potential Effects of a Shadow Chair** The establishment of a shadow chair could lead to significant shifts in monetary policy, with the potential for long-term influence on the Fed's decisions. A forced change would likely create panic in the markets, while a more gradual transition would have a lesser impact [5][7] 6. **Candidates for New Fed Chair and Policy Implications** Current leading candidates for the new Fed chair include Hassett, Basant, Waller, and Walsh. Historical trends suggest that new chairs typically align their policies with existing economic cycles, although some may initiate significant policy shifts depending on inflation conditions [6][8] 7. **Market Signals from Leadership Changes** A forced change in leadership sends panic signals to the market, increasing asset volatility and weakening the credibility of dollar assets. In contrast, a more measured approach to leadership transition may mitigate market disruptions [7][10] 8. **Economic Conditions Over Personal Bias** Changes in the Fed's interest rate policies are primarily driven by economic conditions rather than the personal inclinations of the new chair. Market expectations regarding the new chair's policies are often accurate, especially during critical economic transitions [8][9] 9. **Presidential Influence on Rate Decisions** If the President publicly influences the market, the Fed may adjust its rate decisions accordingly. Historical examples show that persistent presidential pressure can lead to eventual rate cuts, despite initial resistance from the Fed [9][10] 10. **Current Economic Indicators and FOMC Meeting Outlook** Recent U.S. employment data shows resilience, with low unemployment rates supported by government jobs. Inflation is gradually rising, suggesting that a rate cut in July may not be appropriate, with a higher likelihood of action in September after confirming inflation trends [12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The historical context of previous Fed chairs indicates that leadership changes often align with economic cycles, suggesting that the new chair's policies may not deviate significantly from established trends unless economic conditions dictate otherwise [6][8] - The potential for a shadow chair to influence market expectations could lead to unprecedented shifts in monetary policy, highlighting the importance of monitoring political developments closely [5][7]

Core Views - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on gold, copper, and aluminum, emphasizing the importance of strategic metals [1][3] - In H1 2025, domestic economic indicators show signs of bottoming out, with improvements in real estate construction and a gradual shift towards new economic drivers [4][8] - The global economic landscape is being reshaped by fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and the impacts of trade wars, leading to significant changes in resource sectors [4][8] Investment Strategies - **Main Line 1: Expansion on the Denominator Side - Gold and Silver**: Focus on gold and silver, with specific attention to the performance of gold stocks and the potential for silver due to its high price ratio to gold [4][5] - **Main Line 2: Improvement on the Numerator Side - Aluminum, Copper, Tin**: Anticipate continued high profitability in aluminum due to falling costs, while remaining cautious of potential short-term demand weakness [4][7] - **Main Line 3: Key Strategic Metals**: Highlighting opportunities in rare earths and other strategic metals amid US-China tensions, particularly in six key strategic metals [4][7] - **Main Line 4: Supply-Side Disruptions from Anti-Competition**: The report suggests that supply-side constraints in sectors like lithium carbonate may present attractive bottom-fishing opportunities [4][7] Market Performance - The CRB metal spot index increased by 7.08% from the beginning of 2025 to June 30, 2025, indicating a general upward trend in metal prices [9][10] - Gold prices surged by 23.93% during the same period, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [12][14] - Industrial metals, particularly tin and copper, saw significant price increases of 19.91% and 15.59% respectively, while zinc prices fell by 5.55% [16][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper inventories saw a significant reduction, with LME copper stocks decreasing by 66.17% by June 30, 2025 [21][69] - The report anticipates limited growth in global copper supply due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, projecting only a 2.3% increase in global copper production in 2025 [62][64] - The refined copper market is expected to remain slightly short, with a projected demand growth of 7.1% for 2025, supporting a high price center for copper [69] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 19.17% from January to June 2025, compared to a 5.6% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [38][40] - Sub-sectors such as tungsten, gold, and rare earths performed particularly well, with respective increases of 39.64%, 33.57%, and 31.88% [42][44] - Companies closely tied to resource price fluctuations, particularly in gold and rare earths, showed strong performance, while midstream processing companies faced challenges due to weak downstream demand [44]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that potential inflation in the U.S. remains relatively mild despite early signs of tariff impacts in the recently released Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The firm anticipates increased price pressures during the summer, with the CPI reports for July and August being critical milestones to watch [1] - Currently, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode, but if potential inflation continues to remain mild, there is still a possibility for the Fed to restart the rate cut cycle in the fall [1]

Group 1 - The Central Valuation Index (CVI) for major banks has risen to 65.38 points, marking a significant increase of 5.59 points from last week's 59.79 points, reaching the highest level since May 2024 when banks tightened mortgage lending [1] - The CVI has increased for eight consecutive weeks, totaling a rise of 29.19 points, surpassing three critical thresholds: the lower limit of the 40-point boundary, the 50-point boundary, and the upper limit of the 60-point boundary [1] - The local interbank interest rates in Hong Kong have significantly decreased since May, alleviating banks' funding pressure, leading to a more optimistic mortgage lending attitude among banks [1] Group 2 - Following the government's withdrawal of cooling measures in February last year, the transaction volume in Hong Kong's property market rebounded, with the CVI recovering from low levels [2] - The CVI had previously dropped into the 40 to 60-point range, indicating a lack of upward momentum in property prices, which faced downward pressure [2] - The recent interest rate cuts and the government's policy report in October have contributed to a steady increase in the CVI, which has now surpassed the 40 and 50-point thresholds, coinciding with a stabilization in property prices [2] Group 3 - The global economic and political environment has faced new challenges due to factors such as the trade war and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, impacting the CVI [3] - The CVI had fluctuated around the 50-point boundary for 13 weeks before sharply dropping to around 40 points, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - The latest data shows that the CCL (Centaline Property Index) has increased by 1.24% following the relaxation of stamp duty, while property prices in Hong Kong have cumulatively declined by 0.78% in the first half of the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies and interest rate cycles on gold prices, predicting a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with potential upward movement towards $4,000 in early next year [8]. Market Performance - On July 8, international gold prices opened at $3,338.19 per ounce, reached a high of $3,345.53, and then fell to a low of $3,286.89, closing at $3,301.49, marking a daily decline of $36.7 or 1.1% [1]. - The daily trading range was $58.44, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have put pressure on gold prices, as market sentiment improved with expectations of trade agreements between the US and its partners [3][4]. - Despite some countries receiving temporary relief from tariffs, overall tax rates have increased, raising economic concerns [3][7]. - The US public debt is nearing $30 trillion, with a projected deficit of nearly $2 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, which could impact the dollar's long-term stability [7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation for gold prices, with expectations of a decline to around $3,000 or $2,600 if key support levels are breached [10]. - Current trading is above the May moving average, suggesting a bullish trend remains intact unless this support is broken [10]. - The daily chart shows increased bearish momentum, with expectations of further declines towards the lower Bollinger Band and 100-day moving average support [12]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a wide trading range between $3,000 and $3,400 in the second half of the year, with a potential bullish trend resuming in early next year [8]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the US wholesale sales data, which is anticipated to be bearish for gold prices [5].