Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides views on financial futures in the bond market, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks [1][5] - The overall investment view is that Treasury bond futures will be in a state of shock consolidation in the short term [1][5] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the Treasury bond futures will be in shock consolidation [1][5] - Although the macro - economic demand has strong resilience, there are still structural problems, and the effective demand of the household sector is still weak [5] - The future monetary and credit environment will still be relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut in the future, but the urgency of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is weak [5] Group 4: Summary by Variety TL2603 - Short - term view: Shock [1] - Medium - term view: Shock [1] - Intraday view: Weak [1] - Core logic: The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] TL, T, TF, TS - Intraday view: Weak [5] - Medium - term view: Shock [5] - Reference view: Shock consolidation [5] - Core logic: The macro - economic demand has strong resilience but with structural problems, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, there is an expectation of an interest rate cut in the future, but the short - term urgency of a comprehensive interest rate cut is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a weekly increase of 3.03% from January 12 to January 16, ranking among the top in all primary industries [1][2]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's performance included a 6.86% increase in precious metals, a 4.31% rise in minor metals, a 2.81% gain in industrial metals, a 1.47% increase in energy metals, while new metal materials saw a decline of 0.32% [1][2]. Industrial Metals - Industrial metals faced price fluctuations due to rising U.S. economic and inflation data, leading to a downward adjustment in price expectations. As of January 16, copper prices were reported at $12,803 per ton, down 1.50% week-on-week, while domestic copper prices were at 100,770 yuan per ton, down 0.63% [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum market showed signs of seasonal weakness, with prices slightly declining. As of January 16, LME aluminum was priced at $3,134 per ton, down 0.06%, and domestic aluminum was at 23,925 yuan per ton, down 1.66%. The supply side saw an increase in production capacity, while demand showed a decrease, leading to a 4.44% rise in social inventory [4]. Precious Metals - Precious metals prices were driven up by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold closing at $4,601.10 per ounce, a 1.83% increase week-on-week, and SHFE gold at 1,032.32 yuan per gram, up 2.57%. The market is observing fluctuations in interest rate expectations, which may affect future price trends [5].

另一焦点落在1月23日的日本央行利率决议上。同日，日本首相计划解散众议院并宣布提前大选，货币 与政治局势的双重变动可能为亚洲市场增添不确定性。 国际黄金和白银价格19日均创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金价格一度涨破每盎司4690美元，现货白银价格一 度突破每盎司94美元。 上周，美股三大股指均录得跌幅，道指累计下跌0.29%，标普500指数下跌0.38%，纳指下跌0.66%。当 周，美国大型银行率先公布财报，拉开了财报季的帷幕。 本周，全球金融市场将迎来一系列关键事件与数据发布。1月22日，美国将公布11月PCE物价指数，该 数据被视为"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"，在12月CPI数据引发争议后，其表现将成为评估通胀真实趋势 的重要依据——若显示通胀仍具粘性，市场降息预期将迎来修正。 尽管周一美股将因马丁·路德·金纪念日休市，但随着财报季逐步展开，市场注意力将转向企业基本面。 英特尔与奈飞等重磅公司即将发布业绩，分别成为检验科技硬件复苏势头与流媒体增长态势的重要风向 标。 美股财报季本周步入高潮 与此同时，世界经济论坛年会于1月19日至23日在瑞士达沃斯举行。美国总统特朗普、英伟达CEO黄仁 勋等多国政要与科技领袖将出席 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to decline, but there is still support from the macro - level. As the enthusiasm for chasing commodity prices fades and profit - taking accelerates, the iron ore price has fallen from its high. However, the macro - level expectations and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may provide some support, and investors should be wary of upward price drivers that deviate from fundamentals [3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas overall iron ore shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, showing a moderately weak performance. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China have been continuously falling recently [5] - The four major mainstream mines' shipments at the beginning of the year are moderately strong. For example, Vale's global shipments have increased by 19.0% year - to - date [4] - After months, Ukraine has resumed overseas shipments. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, driving the overall operation of domestic mines to improve [20][28] 3.2 Demand - The blast furnace operation rate has decreased month - on - month but remains relatively high compared to the same period last year. The pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from downstream industries may support the molten iron production to some extent [5][31] - The substitution effect of scrap steel is limited. The price of iron ore has only a limited decline, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level, but the overall level is still around zero [32] 3.3 Macro - level - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates, reigniting the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, there is still some support for the valuation of domestic risk assets [5] 3.4 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 812.00 yuan/ton. The position is 648,900 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots week - on - week. The average daily trading volume is 266,200 lots, a decrease of 75,100 lots week - on - week [7] 3.5 Spot Price Performance - The price of medium - grade iron ore remains relatively firm with a small decline. For example, the price of PB powder (61.5%) has decreased by 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [11] 3.6 Inventory - There is an obvious differentiation between port inventory and steel mill raw material inventory. Structurally, the powder ore inventory is significantly high [36][38] 3.7 Downstream Profit - The decline in raw material futures prices has helped to repair the on - paper profit. For example, the spot profit of hot - rolled coils and the on - paper profit of screw steel and coil steel have shown certain changes [40] 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The upward momentum of imported medium - grade powder ore has weakened, and the price difference between domestic iron ore concentrate and PB powder has rebounded from a low level [42] 3.9 Futures Month - to - Month Spread - During the recent price decline, the price of the near - month main contract has fallen more, and the 5 - 9 spread has continued to narrow compared to last year [44] 3.10 Basis Performance - With the decline in futures prices, the basis has strengthened slightly month - on - month [45]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The copper market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with copper prices oscillating at a high level. Tightness at the mine end and strong overseas fundamentals provide support, but domestic inventory build - up and policy risks limit the upside potential [2][3] - Bullish factors include supply - side issues such as strikes in Chile, mining accidents in Indonesia, and low annual copper processing fees, which put pressure on global smelting capacity and support copper prices; the cooling of US inflation strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and long - term demand from new energy and AI infrastructure boosts copper consumption [2] - Bearish factors are that the continuous build - up of copper social inventory and the expansion of spot discounts reflect low acceptance of high prices by downstream users; the US plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran raises concerns about disruptions to copper trade flows and a decline in demand [2] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data - **Weekly Futures Price Changes**: The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.63%; SHFE Copper Index - weighted is at 100,799 yuan/ton, down 0.64% weekly. International Copper is at 91,520 yuan/ton, with a 1.52% weekly increase. LME Copper 3 - month is at 13,148.5 dollars/ton, up 3.52% weekly. COMEX Copper is at 599.15 dollars/pound, with a 3.19% weekly increase [4] - **Weekly Changes in Futures Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of SHFE Copper Main Contract increased by 37,259 to 225,933, and the trading volume was 322,422. The position of SHFE Copper Index - weighted decreased by 7,461 to 683,376, and the trading volume was 643,234. The position of International Copper decreased by 267 to 7,136, and the trading volume was 12,196. The position of LME Copper 3 - month decreased by 38,282 to 239,014, and the trading volume was 65,624. The position of COMEX Copper decreased by 2,004 to 141,386, and the trading volume was 58,290 [4] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data - **Weekly Spot Price Changes**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,575 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan (0.48%) weekly. Shanghai Wumaom is at 102,170 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan (- 0.35%) weekly. Guangdong Southern Reserve is at 102,640 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.08%) weekly. Yangtze Non - ferrous is at 102,940 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.31%) weekly [8][10] - **Weekly Changes in Spot Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan (177.78%). Shanghai Wumaom premium/discount is - 120 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 70 yuan (140%). Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 160 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 180 yuan (- 900%). Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 75 yuan (- 1500%). LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is 37.6 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars (124.48%) weekly. LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 83.5 dollars/ton, down 17.96 dollars (- 17.7%) weekly [10] Group 4: Copper Advanced Data - The copper import profit is - 1,465.85 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 677.34 yuan (85.9%) - The copper concentrate TC is - 46 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.24 dollars (2.77%) - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1989, with a weekly decline of 0.0567 (- 1.33%) - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,258.63 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,575.77 yuan (- 32.59%) [11] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Changes**: SHFE Copper warehouse receipts total 160,417 tons, up 49,201 tons (44.24%) weekly. International Copper warehouse receipts total 11,286 tons, up 10,233 tons (971.79%) weekly. SHFE Copper inventory is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons (24.22%) weekly. LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 91,025 tons, down 24,125 tons (- 20.95%) weekly. LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 50,100 tons, up 24,175 tons (93.25%) weekly [15] - **Other Inventory Changes**: LME Copper inventory is 141,125 tons, up 50 tons (0.04%) weekly. COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 331,096 tons, up 9,989 tons (3.11%) weekly. COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 207,621 tons, up 13,771 tons (7.1%) weekly. COMEX Copper inventory is 538,717 tons, up 23,760 tons (4.61%) weekly. Copper mine port inventory is 428,000 tons, down 68,000 tons (- 13.71%) weekly. Social inventory is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons (1.04%) weekly [17] Group 6: Copper Midstream Production - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production from January to November was 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [19] Group 7: Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 51.1%, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 20.59%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.48%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 56.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 61.59%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99 percentage points [21][22] Group 8: Copper Element Imports - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrates was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import from January to December was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import from January to November was 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% - In November 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import from January to November was 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import from January to November was 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 437,408.903 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import from January to December was 5,320,669.5 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [24]

近日市场因韧性十足的劳动力市场数据以及通胀粘性对于美联储降息预期明显降温之际，美联储官员们 最新讲话所释放出的集体鹰派立场可谓令降息预期更加萎靡。货币政策立场长期以来温和鹰派的美联储 副主席菲利普.杰斐逊表示，基准利率已经非常接近既不刺激也不放缓经济的水平——这句话意味着在 副主席杰斐逊看来在2026年降息并不具备紧迫性，他强调，这使得美联储官员们能够在应对不断变化的 经济风险时处于有利位置。 近期多位美联储官员表达对于2026年货币政策的鹰派立场之际，正值"降息交易"主题就已经开始呈现出 明显的疲软态势。自12月的多项劳动力市场统计数据公布以来，叠加最新公布的11月PPI与12月CPI显示 美国通胀降温节奏缓慢，以及最新公布的美国零售销售额数据实现超预期增长，利率期货交易员们对于 美联储2026年降息预期可谓持续降温。 "CME美联储观察工具"显示，利率期货市场交易员们当前对于2026年美联储降息押注从2025年底曾经 定价的降息三次预期缩减至降息两次，且交易员们普遍押注2026年首次降息时机为6月，而不是此前押 注的3月。不过，"CME美联储观察工具"显示出的交易员降息预期仍然高于FOMC点阵图中值所显示 ...

最热美联储主席人选生变，打击市场的降息预期，美债跌，美股三大指数盘中下跌、收盘微跌，小盘股跑赢大盘。 华尔街见闻提及，最热美联储主席人选生变！特朗普称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问。特朗普的这番表态后，分析人士立即猜测，沃什成为下任美联储主席 这一职位的领跑者。 在特朗普发表上述言论后，美元从盘中低点反弹、小幅走高，而股市则由涨转跌。最终罗素2000指数涨0.1%，连续第11个交易日跑赢标普500。全周标普 500累计微跌0.4%。 如果非要在两位凯文之间选一个，我会选哈塞特而不是沃什。我们知道，凯文·沃什的整个职业生涯都持鹰派立场。 特朗普提及联储主席人选后，年内降息预期进一步下挫。文艺复兴宏观研究公司的Neil Dutta表示： 费城半导体指数上涨约1.1%，盘中刷新历史新高，显著跑赢大盘。台积电等权重个股走强，使得纳指跌幅受限。分析认为，周末假期前宏观不确定性仍高 的环境下，资金继续集中在订单和盈利确定性最高的半导体链条，而不是向更广泛的科技或软件板块扩散。 全周科技七姐妹表现则再次落后于标普493，金融板块本周表现不佳。 降息预期走低后10年期美债收益率走高5个基点，对政策敏感的2年期美债收益率上行约3个 ...

黄金方面： 近期贵金属市场仅在周一和周二出现了较为明确的趋势行情，随后市场陷入震荡，主要推手是当前市场陷入共识疲劳，年初市 场共识一直看涨，而现在市场跌幅有限，是在等待新一轮的市场变化。 虽然特朗普表示，伊朗在镇压抗议活动中的行为正在缓解，暗示可能采取观望态度。但是受到特朗普一贯政策左右改变的影 响，现在市场不敢断定，美国一定不会干预伊朗的局势，仍有变数。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，近期伊朗问题的缓解，一定程度上削弱了黄金的避险属性，金价有所回落。但是跌 幅有限，一定程度上又反映了，市场处在共识疲劳期，仍需要等待确定的答案。 技术面分析：昨日收十字线。日线级别，金价维持在4600美元附近震荡。1小时级别，价格跌破60日均线，向下试探120日均 线，市场处于弱转势阶段。今日多空分水岭在4575美元一线，关注市场在此的变化。 原油方面： 随着委内瑞拉原油改革推进，更多的原油供应进入市场。在美国介入后，北美生产商可能会急于通过整合来对冲油价的下行风 险。在当前低油价环境下，规模效应可以降低成本。2026年，全球原油仍会面临过剩压力。 地缘政治对油价的影响是阶段性的，在库存压力逐步走高的背景下，原油大概率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a rare resonance between its financial and commodity attributes, driven by global central banks' shift towards marginal easing monetary policies and increased investments in energy transition and grid infrastructure. The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index saw a significant increase of 104.84% in 2025, making it a hot topic for investors in 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current macroeconomic environment, particularly the expectation of interest rate cuts, is providing favorable support for non-ferrous metals. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, benefiting interest-sensitive non-ferrous metals. Additionally, a declining US dollar index alleviates pressure on commodity prices denominated in dollars, creating a favorable exchange rate environment for the sector [3][9]. - On the supply side, non-ferrous metals face constraints such as declining ore grades, historically low capital expenditures, stricter approvals and environmental regulations, and geopolitical risks, leading to limited supply elasticity. Conversely, demand is surging due to the explosive growth of new energy sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, which increases the usage of lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, aluminum, and rare earths in batteries and motors [3][9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The ongoing issuance of the Invesco Great Wall China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF (code: 560293) provides a convenient tool for investors to capture opportunities in the sector. This ETF tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, focusing on upstream resource leaders [1][5]. - The ETF comprises 39 constituent stocks, including high-growth industrial metals (copper, lithium, rare earths) and defensive precious metals (gold, silver), offering a balanced approach to investment. This diversified allocation allows for both offensive and defensive strategies, potentially reducing the index's drawdown during weaker market periods [5][11]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Over the past five years, the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index has outperformed other non-ferrous metal indices, rising by 106.32%, compared to 95.08% for the segmented non-ferrous index, 93.60% for the China Securities Non-Ferrous Index, and 93.06% for the National Securities Non-Ferrous Index. The index's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 28.94, below the 10-year average of 37.32, indicating good investment value [6][12]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies since July of the previous year has led to a noticeable recovery in the price index for upstream mining and raw materials, aiding in profit recovery for companies in the sector. As of December 2025, the major raw material purchase price index was at 53.1%, remaining in a high expansion range [4][10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Precious Metals Market Weekly Report" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Authors: Researcher Liao Hongbin, Assistant Researcher Xu Dingfeng [3] Group 2: Weekly Key Points Summary - Tariff situation heats up as the US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives from January 15, 2026, which may marginally increase the risk - aversion premium [5] - US PPI and core PPI in November 2025 both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver [5] - The US Department of Justice plans to conduct a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, but Trump has no plan to fire him, easing market concerns [5] - The December non - farm payrolls were less than expected, indicating a cooling US labor market, leading traders to expect three interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting before May [5] - The Middle East situation has a temporary easing, but geopolitical risks remain high due to Iran's threat to US military bases and sporadic escalation in the Russia - Ukraine front [5] - In the medium term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy on dips in the long - term, while being cautious of short - term corrections [5] - The resistance level for London Gold is 4650 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 4300 US dollars per ounce; for London Silver, the resistance level is 95 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 70 US dollars per ounce [5] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued to be strong this week, with a continuous short - squeeze in the silver market [6] - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract 2604 closed at 22,483 yuan per kilogram, up 20.03% for the week; the Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 closed at 1,032.32 yuan per gram, up 2.57% for the week [10] - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,074.80 tons, up 0.72% month - on - month; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,062 tons, down 0.90% month - on - month [11][15] - As of January 6, 2025 (the latest), both COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased. The COMEX gold net position was 227,632 contracts, down 1.50% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 29,271 contracts, down 2.63% month - on - month [16][20] - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 15, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.74 yuan per gram, with a basis rate of - 0.65%; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 210 yuan per kilogram, with a basis rate of - 0.93% [21][23] - This week, the gold and silver inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,132,901.14 ounces, down 0.70% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, down 0.05% month - on - month; the COMEX silver inventory was 435,671,453 ounces, down 3.0% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 620,262 kilograms, down 10.30% month - on - month [24][28] Group 4: Silver Industry Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased. The import volume of Chinese silver was 263,505.88 kilograms, up 9.90% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, up 21.23% month - on - month [30][34] - Due to the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry, the production of integrated circuits has been rising, and the year - on - year growth rate has stabilized. As of November 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [36][40] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [42][44] - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while the investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month. The World Silver Institute predicted that the global total silver supply in 2025 would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces; the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% year - on - year to about 1,120 million ounces; the supply - demand gap in 2025 was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [48][50] Group 6: Gold Supply and Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs has increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continue to buy gold [52] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound from the low level within the oscillation range [56] - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility decreased [61] - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [65] - In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [69]