英国10年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至4.49%；2年期收益率上涨3个基点至3.74%。 货币市场削减降息预期，目前定价显示到2026年底将再降息39个基点，而周三预期为41个基点。 责任编辑：刘明亮 英镑兑美元抹去跌幅，英债价格下跌。此前英国央行如预期将利率下调25个基点至3.75%，并表示未来 是否降息将更难抉择。 英镑/美元上涨0.1%，报1.3387。 英镑兑美元抹去跌幅，英债价格下跌。此前英国央行如预期将利率下调25个基点至3.75%，并表示未来 是否降息将更难抉择。 英镑/美元上涨0.1%，报1.3387。 英国10年期国债收益率上涨1个基点至4.49%；2年期收益率上涨3个基点至3.74%。 货币市场削减降息预期，目前定价显示到2026年底将再降息39个基点，而周三预期为41个基点。 责任编辑：刘明亮 ...

Group 1 - The CSI A500 index closed down 0.6%, while the CSI A100 and A50 indices both fell by 0.7% [1] - The A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) had a total trading volume of 5.4 billion yuan, with net subscriptions exceeding 1 million units, following two consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling over 1 billion yuan [1] - Guotai Junan Securities stated that fluctuations in financial market expectations will not alter the trends in the real economy, indicating a clearer direction for future investments and interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The CSI A500 index consists of 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 sub-industries [3] - The CSI A100 index includes 100 representative securities with large market capitalization and liquidity, covering 46 sub-industries, reflecting the overall performance of core leading listed companies [3] - The CSI A50 index is composed of the 50 largest stocks by market capitalization from various industries, with a balanced distribution across 50 sub-industries, highlighting a large-cap style [3]

摩根大通方面未对此事置评，也未披露其国债投资组合的期限结构，以及通过利率互换合约管理风险的 具体规模。 （原标题：降息预期拉满，摩根大通从美联储抽走3500亿美元买美债） 【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据英国《金融时报》当地时间12月17日报道，自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其美联储账户中撤出近3500 亿美元现金，并将其中大部分投入美国国债，以试图对冲降息可能带来的利润侵蚀风险，为利率下行周 期提前布局。 行业数据追踪机构BankRegData数据显示，资产规模超4万亿美元的摩根大通，已将其在美联储的账户 余额从2023年末的4090亿美元，大幅削减至今年第三季度的630亿美元。 同期，摩根大通的美国国债持有量从2310亿美元增至4500亿美元，这一操作可使其在美联储降息预期下 提前锁定较高收益率，为后续利率下行做好准备。 这一资金转移反映出，作为美国最大的银行，摩根大通正为一段轻松盈利时期的终结做准备。在此前的 盈利期内，银行将现金存入美联储即可获得利息，同时却只需向多数储户支付近乎为零的利息。 摩根大通美联储现金储备与持有美国国债走势图 《金融时报》 2022年至2023年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区 ...

【文/羽扇观金工作室】 据英国《金融时报》当地时间12月17日报道，自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其美联储账户中撤出近3500亿美元现金，并将其中大部分投入美国国债， 以试图对冲降息可能带来的利润侵蚀风险，为利率下行周期提前布局。 行业数据追踪机构BankRegData数据显示，资产规模超4万亿美元的摩根大通，已将其在美联储的账户余额从2023年末的4090亿美元，大幅削减至今年 第三季度的630亿美元。 同期，摩根大通的美国国债持有量从2310亿美元增至4500亿美元，这一操作可使其在美联储降息预期下提前锁定较高收益率，为后续利率下行做好准 备。 这一资金转移反映出，作为美国最大的银行，摩根大通正为一段轻松盈利时期的终结做准备。在此前的盈利期内，银行将现金存入美联储即可获得利 息，同时却只需向多数储户支付近乎为零的利息。 2022年至2023年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区间从接近零的水平迅速上调至5%以上。随后，美联储于2024年末开始下调这一目标区间，并 已暗示可能进一步降息。本月，美联储已将利率降至三年来的最低水平。 "摩根大通将美联储账户资金转向国债的意图十分明确，"BankRegData创始 ...

（原标题：?黄金与铂金携手冲高! 降息预期+地缘政治风险共振 资金蜂拥至贵金属） "实际收益率的变动方向变得更具支撑性，"来自澳大利亚Pepperstone Group Ltd.的策略师Dilin Wu表 示。"再叠加持续的地缘政治不确定性以及年末市场流动性更稀薄，黄金与铂金这类贵金属正在重新获 得其作为投资组合稳定器的重要角色。" 智通财经APP获悉，随着全球投资者们追踪委内瑞拉不断升级的紧张局势，并等待美国通胀数据，黄金 现货价格在历史最高位附近持稳。近期涨势如虹的铂金则延续迅猛涨势，盘中一度大涨4%，仍然位于 2008年以来的最高价位水平——距离历史最高位相差320美元，众多宏观利好因素推动下的这一轮猛烈 涨势有望推动铂金在长达17年后创下历史新高点位。 黄金与铂金价格近期持续强势，主要受益于地缘政治局势持续升温，以及美联储降息预期之下的宏观流 动性宽松预期，铂族金属相比于黄金则还大幅受益于供需失衡——世界铂金投资协会(WPIC)预计2025 年全球铂金市场将迎来连续三年供给短缺。对于黄金来说，若铂金持续上涨，从这两大贵金属的历史线 性关系来看，有望推动黄金接下来一段时间的持续上涨步伐，这也意味着黄金在 ...

1 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 交易提示 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 12 月 18 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-18） | | | | 铁矿：铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 不变：2026 年全球矿山新增 6400–6500 万吨，增速远超 | | | | | 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 升温，现实需求疲弱。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度，最 | | | | | 直接的影响就是买单出口被"限制"，对于明年钢材出口 | | | | | 的预期需要下调，同时关注是否匹配粗钢产量管控政策， | | | | | 对于原料而言是确定性的利空。策略上，短期因补库和宏 | | | | | 观情绪造成的反弹具备逢高介入空单的价值，突破前高紧 | | | | | 止损。 | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 煤焦：产能倒査、安监巡视作为现实催化，叠加反内卷政 | | | | | 策的预期，推高了 ...

【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 昨日黄金日内震荡，晚间受到数据何必显得加持下，价格持续拉升，冲击4350一线阻力位。虽然短期承压回落，但避险居高不下。假设企稳4350会继续向上 发起攻击冲向4380再次刷新高。与此同时，昨日白银更是突破66关口，再次创下历史新高66.88。今日需要关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI 数据，明日需要关注日本央行。今明两天还是比较重要的，谨防下冲高回落。 如果CPI和PCE数据确认通胀降温，降息预期将进一步升温；如果委内瑞拉局势升级成冲突，避险需求会爆炸式增长。但要警惕美元反弹和美联储内部分歧 后回落。短期内，黄金有望分别测试4350和4380压制。 结合白银今日还是主多为主。下方支撑4320附近，接近不破短多。假设震荡洗盘4306附近也可以多。短期内，黄金有望分别测试4350和4380压制。上方接近 4360附近不破轻仓试空，进一步关注4380压制，周四周五需要警惕二次探高不破带来的回落。 本轮预测在12月21日（当日休市，可关注19号或22号），也就是冬至附近，黄金可能会有新的转折!（上次全网公开提前预测10月22日大跌兑现，不知大家 还有印象没有？） 【操 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, mostly in a low - volatility range with limited trading value. Key factors include clear policy support, enhanced independent exchange - rate fluctuations, and a resonance of internal and external environments. However, potential risks such as high long - position inventories of USD/HKD and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes should be noted [3]. - The entry of the national team only boosts the market sentiment in the short term. The stock index is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and the small and medium - cap stock indexes may face pressure [4]. - For the bond market, it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, while short - term long positions can consider taking profits [5]. - In the container shipping European route, there is a bull - bear mix. The price is expected to be supported in January due to shipping companies' price - holding intentions, but factors such as weak economic data, sufficient shipping capacity, and the expected resumption of Red Sea routes may bring pressure [6]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bullish foundation for platinum remains. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. For gold and silver, be cautious about short - term callbacks, and maintain a long - term bullish view. For copper, the market sentiment is high, but the price increase did not meet expectations. For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. For zinc, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they had a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation. For tin, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. For lithium carbonate, the short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. For industrial silicon, it is in a supply - demand weak situation, and for polysilicon, the trading logic is mainly technical [9][11][13][16][19][20][22][23][24][26]. - For steel products, the price is expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is likely between 3000 - 3400. For iron ore, the downward space is expected to be limited. For coking coal and coke, if the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, the market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and there may be a short - term rebound [30][31][32][33][34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the short - term strategy is mainly to wait and see. For crude oil, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation may drive up short - term oil prices. For LPG, the near - term is still supported. For PTA - PX, there is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. For MEG - bottle chips, the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. For methanol, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. For PP, the cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. For PE, the spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. For pure benzene - styrene, pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. For asphalt, if the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. For rubber, both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. For urea, the 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. For soda ash, it is waiting for unexpected supply changes. For glass, the near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. For caustic soda, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For logs, the current price has limited trading value. For propylene, it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [38][40][42][44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][65][67][68][70][71][72][75][76][78][79][80]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. For oils, the short - term trend is wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information. For cotton, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, paying attention to downstream orders and hedging pressure. For sugar, the price will remain weak. For apples, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips. For red dates, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in December, the US employment market cooled, and the UK's CPI decline increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut. Domestically, policies are "seeking progress while maintaining stability," and in November, industrial production was resilient but domestic demand was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Key information includes China's fiscal revenue growth, the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, and the UK's CPI decline. The RMB is expected to be moderately strong in the short term, with potential risks [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day. The entry of the national team boosted market sentiment, but the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and small and medium - cap indexes may face pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose on Wednesday. The market sentiment improved, and it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can consider taking profits [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The night - session prices of platinum and palladium rose to new highs this year. The price is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and EU policies. In the long term, the bullish foundation for platinum remains, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose. Silver shows a long - squeeze phenomenon. The short - term focus is on callback risks, and the long - term view is bullish [11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded. The market sentiment was high, but the increase did not meet expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 93500 - 94000, and downstream enterprises can consider buying futures on dips for hedging [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable, alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices had support at the bottom and rebounded slightly at night. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and there may be entry opportunities [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The nickel ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is affected by export regulations. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices were strong. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, and the short - term view is not to short [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose sharply. The short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. Attention should be paid to supply shocks and demand declines [22][23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's trading logic is mainly technical. The long - term price of industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are ineffective [24][26]. - **Lead**: Lead prices were weakly volatile. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500, with strong support around 16500 [27]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rebounded slightly but faced pressure above. After the central economic work conference, the pricing of the steel market returned to fundamentals. Supply may slow down the reduction, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is in a de - stocking trend. The price is expected to fluctuate [28][30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. After macro events, the trading logic returned to fundamentals. Supply is relatively restrained, demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is supported by coking coal [32]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal price may be affected by winter restocking, and the coke price may continue to decline. If the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking [33][34]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. Supply is likely to continue to decline, demand is expected to decrease, and inventory is at a high level. There may be a short - term rebound [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices fluctuated, and offset paper prices were weakly volatile. The Crofton pulp mill's shutdown was postponed, and the pulp port inventory is still high. The short - term strategy for both is to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US - Venezuela tension may drive up short - term oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [42][43][44]. - **LPG**: The near - term is still supported. The supply increased slightly, demand remained stable, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. PX supply is expected to be high, PTA supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation in December, and the polyester demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [47][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. Supply has shown initial signs of support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [50][52]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. Factors such as commodity trends and unloading problems have affected the price, and the unloading problem will be resolved in the future [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. Supply may be relieved in January, and demand has some support [55][57]. - **PE**: The spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing, especially in the agricultural film sector [58][60]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply of pure benzene is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the demand is stable [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: If the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the US - Venezuela situation may affect the supply of heavy oil [62]. - **Rubber**: Both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Natural rubber is affected by supply - side disturbances and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental improvement, and the upward space is restricted [63][65][67]. - **Urea**: The 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. High supply pressures the price, but export policies relieve the pressure, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend [68][70]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for unexpected supply changes, glass's near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure and weakening demand [71][72][75]. - **Logs**: The current price has limited trading value. It is in a position - shifting market, with the inventory decreasing and the spot price falling [76][78]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a shock pattern. The supply is relatively loose, demand is stable, and it is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. The rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [81][82]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is wide - range shock. Palm oil is affected by supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by global supply. Attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information [82][83]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The downstream shows resilience, but short - term pressure exists. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and hedging pressure [84]. - **Sugar**: The price will remain weak. Global sugar production and trade data affect the price, such as India's high production and Brazil's high exports [85][86]. - **Apples**: The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Consumption is sluggish, and inventory is slowly decreasing [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term downward space may be limited. New - season production is slightly reduced, and new - product supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [89].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/12/18 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/11 5 4282 115035 31461 -1540.94 -17.07 41.0 48.0 24.76 165850 66650 2025/12/12 -15 4927 115035 32563 -1469.82 -364.76 41.0 47.0 20.69 165900 66000 2025/12/15 30 4637 115035 42226 -1177.97 -249.44 42.0 48.0 -4.39 165875 65400 2025/12/16 -375 3947 115035 45784 -1413.46 -104.22 42.0 48.0 -9.52 166600 64400 2025/12/17 -330 4353 115035 44877 - -196.60 44.0 50.0 - 166925 64450 变化 45 ...

贵金属日报 2025-12-18 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.53 %，报 982.48 元/克，沪银涨 3.93 %，报 15594.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4371.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 66.44 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.16%，美元指数报 98.38 ； 昨日美联储理事沃勒发表讲话，总体基调偏鸽派。他认为就业市场疲软，降息有助于改善就业 前景。而通胀在未来几个月将有所下降，美联储仅凭通胀前景缓和即可进行降息操作。 美国劳动力市场表现疲软，美国 11 月新增非农就业人口数为 6.4 万人，高于预期的 5 万人， 但十月份新增非农就业数据则录得 10.5 万人的下跌。 从 10 月和 11 月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增 就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。总体就业格局从分项来看表现疲乏，符合 鲍威尔所说的劳动力市场具备风险的情况：建筑业新增就业 ...