Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the price of double-offset paper may hit a new low and enter the era starting with "3", in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price of double-offset paper, and the consensus expectation may reverse [3][7][51]. - The current futures price of double - offset paper is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness". Downward trading has limited value, and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [4][53]. Summary by Directory 1.上市以来的行情回顾 - After listing, the futures price of double - offset paper has maintained an overall oscillating trend, with the fluctuation range generally concentrated between 4,100 - 4,300 yuan/ton. The current futures market has fully priced in the long - term oversupply expectation, but this long - term downward pressure has not been transmitted to the spot market. The quotes of mainstream brands are relatively firm, and the decline is relatively limited. The expected return from selling for delivery currently cannot cover the opportunity cost in the spot market [8][51]. 2. 空头的核心逻辑是什么？ 2.1 产能持续投放 - In the medium to long term, the industry's production capacity has been continuously increasing, leading to severe overcapacity. The overall industry production capacity is estimated to be in the range of 16 - 18 million tons. It is expected that 950,000 tons of cultural paper will be put into production in the second half of 2025, accounting for about 5% - 6% of the current production capacity, and 1.43 million tons in 2026. Additionally, a southern paper mill plans to put into production a double - offset paper production line with a capacity of 1.2 million tons from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027 [14]. 2.2 需求见顶下滑 - The consumption of double - offset paper is mainly affected by the "one textbook and one supplementary material" policy and the population cycle. From January to July 2025, the cumulative consumption of double - offset paper was 4.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. Grassroots research shows that the consumption of off - campus supplementary teaching materials has decreased by 30% - 50% in different provinces. The number of compulsory education students has declined, and this downward trend is expected to continue in 2025 [16]. 2.3 晨鸣复工影响 - Recently, Shouguang Chenming has accelerated its resumption of work and production. After the successful start - up of Factory 6, the Meilun Chemical Pulp Factory and the paper production lines of Factories 5 and 9 have also been successfully put into operation. Factory 6 has a production capacity of about 160,000 tons, Factory 5 about 500,000 tons, Factory 9 about 400,000 tons, and the pulp line about 1.2 million tons. Other paper production lines will also be gradually started, increasing the overall industry supply pressure [18]. 2.4 成本和价格的负反馈 - The cost of double - offset paper includes raw materials (wood pulp) and papermaking costs, which are greatly affected by factors such as formula, wood pulp price, and integration level. As paper prices decline, paper mills have adjusted their formulas to reduce costs. The mainstream cost - reduction paths include reducing the proportion of commercial pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp, as well as reducing the proportion of softwood pulp and increasing the proportion of chemimechanical pulp and hardwood pulp. The estimated cash cost of mainstream natural - white double - offset paper is in the range of 3,600 - 4,200 yuan/ton. If a company has a high degree of integration, it can still make a profit [21][22]. 3. 是否存在尚未交易的潜在利多？ 3.1 教辅教材需求的边际改善 - The consumption of double - offset paper used for supplementary teaching materials has obvious seasonal characteristics. September to November is the peak season for tendering of supplementary teaching materials. Usually, the consumption of double - offset paper shows a seasonal month - on - month improvement during this period, and prices tend to have a phased rebound around the National Day. In 2024, the price did not rebound significantly due to the impact of policies and population. Since September 2025, the weekly sales volume of double - offset paper has increased from 157,000 tons to 167,000 tons, showing an obvious month - on - month improvement [25][28]. 3.2 浆价提涨带动预期有所改变 - In the short term, the price of imported hardwood pulp has been continuously rising, and the downward space for softwood pulp prices is limited, which has changed the bearish sentiment in the downstream market. The current pulp price is close to the full cost of Suzano's pulp. South American pulp companies led by Suzano have a strong willingness to raise prices and have started to actively cut production to support prices. Since the second quarter of 2025, many pulp mills have shut down or plan to shut down in the future due to economic reasons, and the shutdown capacity of commercial pulp has increased rapidly. The inventory days of softwood pulp in pulp mills are at a historical high, while the inventory days of hardwood pulp are relatively low, with certain price - increasing ability. Recently, as the price of hardwood pulp has rebounded from the bottom, the profit of paper mills has further declined, which has changed the expectations of some practitioners and weakened the bearish sentiment, thus boosting demand to some extent [31][36][40]. 3.3 交割利润修复 - In the short term, the 2601 contract is still far from the delivery date. It is believed that the paper price is unlikely to continue to decline in the short term, and the futures - spot convergence may be achieved by the futures price moving closer to the spot price. Based on the current delivery cost calculation, the current futures price is significantly undervalued. As the delivery date approaches, the repair of delivery profit may drive the futures price to rebound [42][43]. 3.4 长期变量中仍有利多 - There is still room for improvement in per - capita consumption. China's per - capita consumption of double - offset paper is about two - thirds of that in Japan. The decline in double - offset paper consumption cannot be linearly extrapolated, and the degree of overcapacity may be overestimated. Supplementary teaching materials are only one of the end - products of double - offset paper, and the decline in their consumption does not represent weak demand for social books. As of 2023, the overall print volume of social books has still been increasing. As of August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in the added value of China's printing and recording media reproduction industry above the designated size was +1.3%. Double - offset paper machines can be used to produce other paper types, which may lead to an overestimation of the effective production capacity of double - offset paper and an underestimation of the overall capacity utilization rate [44][47][49]. 4. 总结和策略展望 - Although the price of double - offset paper may hit a new low, in the short term, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on the futures price. The short - term marginal improvement of short - term variables may drive the futures price to have a phased rebound before a significant decline. The current futures price is in a state of "low valuation + short - term bullish drivers + medium - to - long - term bearishness", and short - term traders can consider buying on dips, with an expected price fluctuation range of 4,100 - 4,500 yuan/ton [53].

来源：市场资讯 近年来，在锂电行业产能过剩、原材料下跌的情况下，天赐材料正面临的不小的市场压力。 作为国内电解液龙头，天赐材料的核心产品电解液，在2024年保持销量增长的势头，全年销售超过50万 吨，较去年同比增长约26%。但由于受到原材料价格波动、竞争加剧等多方面影响，报告期内产品价格 及单位盈利下降。 数据显示，当前国内电解液市场价格走势呈现震荡下滑运行态势。以磷酸铁锂电解液为例，价格围绕 1.76万~2.36万元/吨区间波动，处于近3年内同期价格低位。 资料显示，天赐材料是一家以科技创新驱动的全球领先新能源和先进材料企业，其核心业务聚焦于锂电 池材料、日化材料及特种化学品综合解决方案。2025年上半年，其锂离子电池材料收入63.02亿元，同 比增长33.2%；日化材料及特种化学品业务收入6.14亿元，同比增长12.93%。 天赐材料赴港上市的计划开始于今年7月。彼时天赐材料发布晚间公告称，公司于7月4日召开董事会和 监事会，审议通过了关于发行H股股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司上市的相关议案。 公告表示，公司计划通过本次发行，深入推进全球化战略布局，打造国际化资本运作平台，满足海外业 务的持续发展需要，提 ...

| 玻璃纯碱期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 | | | | 蒋诗语 | Z0017002 | | 玻璃相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 मोहि | | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 1150 华北报价 | | 1150 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华东报价 1230 | | 1230 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华中报价 1140 | | 1140 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华南报价 1240 | | 1240 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/肥 | | 玻璃2505 | 1312 | 1329 | -17 | -1.28% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1389 | 1398 | -d | -0.64% | | | 05基米 | -162 | -179 | 17 | 9.50% | | | 纯碱相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 张联幅 | 单位 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ziyuan has terminated a planned investment of 200 million yuan in a dairy beverage production line in Yunnan, citing "land planning and industrial planning" as reasons, while industry insiders believe it is related to declining revenue and underutilization of existing capacity [1][2] Group 1: Project Termination - The terminated project was planned since 2022, involving the construction of three sterile filling production lines for dairy beverages with a total investment of approximately 200 million yuan [2] - The termination was officially announced on September 12, 2023, through an agreement with the local government, emphasizing the need to optimize resource allocation and reduce investment risks [2] Group 2: Capacity and Utilization - As of last year, Li Ziyuan's total production capacity across five factories was 375,900 tons, with an actual utilization of 248,800 tons, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of only 66% [1][4] - The company has ongoing projects with a planned investment of 1.58 billion yuan, aiming to increase total capacity to 592,600 tons by 2029, representing a 58% increase compared to 2024 [3] Group 3: Revenue and Market Challenges - The core revenue source for Li Ziyuan, dairy beverages, has faced significant pressure, with revenue for this segment declining by 11.19% year-on-year to approximately 583 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [4] - The company is attempting to diversify its product offerings, including new products like AD calcium milk and vitamin water, to mitigate reliance on a single category [5] Group 4: Strategic Shift to Milk Powder - Li Ziyuan plans to invest 320 million yuan in a new project in Ningxia to produce whole and skim milk powder, indicating a strategic shift to explore a "second growth curve" [1][5] - The milk powder market is highly competitive, with established players like Yili and Mengniu already present, raising concerns about Li Ziyuan's ability to penetrate this market effectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kangtai Biological, is facing its most challenging period since its listing, with significant declines in net profit and profitability despite a revenue increase [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Kangtai Biological reported total revenue of 1.392 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.81% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was only 37.53 million yuan, a dramatic decline of 77.30% compared to the previous year [3]. - The company's non-recurring net profit was 18 million yuan, down 84.85% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 7.83 percentage points to 75.95%, while the net profit margin fell from 13.76% to 2.70% [3]. - This performance marks the lowest half-year net profit since the company went public [3]. Stock Performance - As of September 19, 2025, Kangtai Biological's stock price plummeted nearly 90% from 149.64 yuan per share on August 4, 2020, to 17.17 yuan per share [5]. - Despite a general rise in the pharmaceutical industry, Kangtai's stock price only increased by 0.74% from the beginning of the year to September 20, while the Wind Pharmaceutical Index rose by 31.5% [5]. Market Challenges - The company faces multiple challenges, including market saturation and intensified competition for its core products, which hinder market share growth [7]. - Operational inefficiencies, such as suboptimal production processes and poor cost control, are impacting profitability and operational efficiency [8]. - Strategic misalignments in market positioning and product development may have prevented the company from adapting to market changes [8]. Industry Factors - The decline in birth rates has significantly affected the vaccine market, reducing the potential vaccination population [9]. - The waning demand for COVID-19 vaccines has led to excess production capacity and declining performance for many vaccine companies, including Kangtai [9]. - Price reduction policies in the industry have compressed profit margins, making it increasingly difficult for companies to maintain profitability [9]. Product Performance - Kangtai's first-class vaccines (immunization planning vaccines) saw a revenue increase of 92% to 51.65 million yuan, but the gross margin plummeted by 37.5 percentage points to -5.01% [11]. - The decline in profitability for first-class vaccines is attributed to price reductions from centralized procurement policies and rising production costs [11][12]. - The second-class vaccines (non-immunization planning vaccines) experienced a revenue increase of 1.3 billion yuan, but the gross margin fell by 5.48 percentage points to 80.32%, indicating a "revenue increase without profit increase" scenario [15]. Competitive Landscape - The market for the 13-valent pneumonia vaccine has become highly competitive, with Kangtai's sales volume declining by 44.31% in the first half of 2025 [17]. - The company faces challenges from new entrants and established competitors, which have intensified price competition [18].

Group 1: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The substantial support policies such as "anti - involution" in the polysilicon market have not been implemented in time, and the new energy - consumption national standard has limited impact on short - term supply and demand. The supply - side regulation effect is less than expected, and the industry's over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. The inventory of downstream component links is high, and prices are loosening. Future attention should be paid to national - level policies on capacity clearance and industry procurement, as well as the actual start - up rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, and the inventory digestion progress and new order demand of downstream photovoltaic component factories [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon materials remained stable on September 22 compared with September 19, while the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 3420.00% [1]. - **Futures Price and Inter - month Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 3.24% from September 19 to September 22, and the spread between different months showed various changes [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.64%, while monthly production increased by 23.31%. Monthly polysilicon import decreased by 9.63%, and net export increased by 94.25%. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production increased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 6.85%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon increases, and the supply - demand balance gradually becomes loose. The expected batch production reduction of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the flat - dry season is at the end of October, and the supply surplus is more obvious in October and narrows in November. The cost increase during the flat - dry season in the southwest boosts market sentiment. In the short term, industrial silicon has insufficient upward driving force, and the price may turn to oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and industrial silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan in the fourth quarter [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The prices of various types of industrial silicon increased on September 22 compared with September 19, and the basis also showed significant changes [2]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of industrial silicon futures contracts showed various changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Monthly national and regional industrial silicon production increased, and the national and regional start - up rates also increased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. Industrial silicon exports increased [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory - warehouse inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Social inventory and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly, and contract inventory decreased slightly [2]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures market is weak. Although the manufacturer's inventory has decreased recently, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches, and the trade inventory continues to rise. The weekly production remains high, and there is still an over - supply situation compared with the current rigid demand. In the medium term, there is no significant increase in downstream capacity, so the demand for soda ash will continue the previous rigid - demand pattern. If there is no actual capacity exit or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention can be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation situation of alkali plants. It is advisable to short on rebounds [4]. - **Glass**: The glass futures market is weak. The spot market trading has become dull, and the inventory of some middle - stream areas remains high without obvious reduction. In the long - term, as the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Attention can be paid to the implementation of regional policies and the inventory - replenishment performance of the middle and lower reaches during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. In the short term, sentiment - driven factors may drive the spot market to improve, and the sustainability needs to be tracked [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in different regions remained stable, and the prices of glass futures contracts decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda - Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable, and the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased [4]. - **Supply**: The soda ash start - up rate and weekly production decreased, the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory and soda - ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased, while the soda - ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased. The glass factory's soda - ash inventory days remained unchanged [4]. - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real - estate all showed different degrees of change [4]. Group 4: Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - On the supply side, the expected increase in future supply weakens the raw - material price and cost support, but the typhoon weather has raised concerns about short - term supply release. The pre - festival inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the inventory - reduction rhythm of natural rubber spot inventory has slowed down. On the demand side, although some enterprises still face shortages, the overall shipment performance is less than expected, and some enterprises' inventory may increase. Affected by the typhoon weather, the short - term rubber price will fluctuate strongly, with the 01 contract price ranging from 15000 - 16500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the raw - material output during the peak season in the main production areas and the impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw - material supply is smooth, the price may decline further; otherwise, it will continue to operate within the range [5]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some rubber varieties remained stable, while the basis and non - standard price difference changed [5]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The spread between different months of rubber futures contracts showed various changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in July showed different trends. The start - up rate of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased slightly. The domestic tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded - area inventory and the上期所 factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased, and the inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in the bonded and general - trade warehouses in Qingdao changed [5]. Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures market oscillated. The spot price of the main standard delivery products remained unchanged, and the inventory decreased significantly. The demand (outbound volume) decreased, while the supply (expected arrival of New Zealand logs) increased. As the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to whether the outbound volume improves significantly after entering the seasonal peak season. The current daily outbound volume is about 60,000 cubic meters, but it has not exceeded 70,000 cubic meters. The price below 800 yuan/cubic meter has high "receiving value". In the current pattern of "weak reality and strong expectation", it is recommended to go long on dips [7]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Price**: The log futures price oscillated, and the spot price of main standard delivery products remained unchanged [7]. - **Cost: Import Cost Calculation**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate and import theoretical cost changed slightly [7]. - **Port Shipment and Departure Ship Number**: The port shipment volume and departure ship number from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased [7]. - **Main Port Inventory and Daily Outbound Volume**: The national coniferous log inventory decreased, and the daily outbound volume decreased [7].

Group 1 - The global macro leverage ratio has been continuously increasing, primarily driven by government leverage, with total global debt exceeding 350% of GDP [2][5][6] - Major economies like the US, Japan, and China have shown a trend of increasing government leverage while corporate and household leverage remains stable or decreases [5][12][41] - The US government debt interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, highlighting the growing fiscal pressure [41][42] Group 2 - The structure of leverage in major economies indicates that government departments are increasing their debt levels, while businesses and households are more cautious [5][9][12] - Japan's government has maintained a high leverage ratio, yet its economy has struggled with long-term stagnation despite significant fiscal stimulus [9][12][41] - China's government leverage has risen rapidly post-pandemic, contrasting with the declining leverage in many developed countries [12][35][41] Group 3 - The increasing reliance on debt to stimulate economic growth raises concerns about the sustainability of this model, as investment returns decline [45][46] - The need for effective fiscal policy is emphasized, with suggestions for improving the efficiency of government spending and addressing social welfare needs [57][58][59] - The demographic challenges, particularly aging populations, are driving up social security expenditures, necessitating higher government spending [33][35][41]

消息面 华联期货： 旺季备货行情接近尾声，食品企业及终端商超等环节拿货量逐渐减少，叠加冷库出库冲击市场，贸易流 通环节恐跌心态显现，产区出货受阻，市场交易氛围减弱。养殖端对后市蛋价看空心态增加，淘汰鸡出 栏节奏明显加快。加之当前供应量涨至近五年最高水平，产蛋率恢复，新开产蛋鸡及上高峰蛋鸡仍在增 加，产能过剩格局难改。主力合约低位宽幅震荡，参考运行区间2900~3200，期权方面，可卖出虚值看 涨期权。 五矿期货： 现货仍有回落预期，盘面近月走势偏弱，远月在供需边际改善预期以及资金博弈下相对走强；供应端看 基础产能依旧偏大，但随着补栏减少和淘鸡的增多，边际上存在改善的空间，需求端有较多不确定因 素，一方面低价刺激消费，另一方面双节导致的需求后置、降温导致的季节性囤货需求也增加了后市的 想象空间，考虑前期资金博弈下空头预期兑现较为充分，当前盘面升水不合理的情况已明显改善，建议 短期观望为主，后市更多关注远月回落后的买入。 截至9月18日的前三周，全国的淘鸡量分别是1761万只、1748万只和1789万只，从趋势上来看，淘汰量 在8月后逐步抬头，上升幅度高于季节性的平均水平，当前绝对值略高于前三年的平均水平。 今日 ...

当前，反内卷已成为自上而下的政策共识，资本市场对中游行业投资机会的关注度逐步提升。化工行业作为典型中游周期板块，其供需基本面、配置价值及 投资逻辑备受市场关注。近日，国投瑞银基金经理汤龑围绕反内卷政策导向、化工行业供需逻辑、配置时点、基金操作策略及下半年市场展望等核心问题展 开深入解读。 国投瑞银基金经理 汤龑 问题一：当前反内卷政策为何将重点聚焦中游行业，而非上游？其核心逻辑是什么？ 汤龑表示，反内卷政策的核心目标是解决产业链产能过剩、低价新增等问题，相关问题在中游行业表现尤为突出，从两大关键维度可明确政策聚焦中游的必 然性：一是产能利用率差异。上游经供给侧改革后提升至80%左右，显著优于中下游的70%；二是从利润增速看，上游行业（如有色金属、非金属矿采选） 保持正增长且盈利处于历史高位，而中下游行业盈利承压。因此，反内卷政策重点必然聚焦中游行业。 政策层面，当前官媒已密集发声，光伏、汽车、快递等行业政策陆续出台，反内卷已形成自上而下的政策共识，仅尚未完全转化为资本市场共识。且中游行 业对反内卷政策反应更为积极，自然成为政策重点支持及受益的核心领域。 问题二：反内卷背景下，化工行业有望充分受益的逻辑是什么？ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has declined, the valuation pressure has decreased, the maintenance volume is low, and the production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new devices will be tested. On the downstream side, domestic operations have improved. Regarding exports, the anti - dumping tax rate in India has been determined, and exports are expected to weaken after implementation. The cost of calcium carbide has continued to rebound, while caustic soda has declined, leading to stronger overall valuation support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the significant increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real - estate demand, and the industry pattern has deteriorated. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the excess domestic production capacity. Overall, given the current situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, with the weakening export outlook, even if the downstream has improved recently, it is still difficult to change the pattern of oversupply. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there will be a small rebound due to stronger valuation support, improved domestic demand, and a better commodity atmosphere. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has decreased, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased slightly. Currently, the valuation support is neutral [11] - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 77.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. Last week, the supply - side load decreased mainly due to the reduced loads of enterprises such as Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, Zhongtai, Henan Yuhang, and Haohua. The load is expected to pick up slightly next week. The overall maintenance volume in September is expected to decline, and multiple devices are expected to be commissioned and put into production, further increasing the supply pressure [11] - **Demand**: Regarding exports, the final anti - dumping tax rate ruling result in India has been announced, and China's tax rate is at a significant disadvantage compared to other countries. Exports are expected to decline after implementation. The operations of the three major downstream industries continued to improve last week. The load of the pipe industry is 39.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%; the load of the film industry is 76.9%, remaining flat month - on - month; the load of the profile industry is 39.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The overall downstream operations have stabilized and improved. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 756,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 67,000 tons [11] - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 306,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons; the social inventory was 954,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts continued to rise. Currently, it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the upstream inventory is gradually transferred to the mid - stream. Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The basis and price spread in the futures and spot market are fluctuating weakly, but specific data and analysis details are not provided in the text, only relevant charts are mentioned [16] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has declined, and the valuation is neutral. The text also provides charts showing the profit trends of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide - based production, PVC ethylene - based production, and Inner Mongolia's calcium carbide production [40] - **Inventory**: The text provides charts showing the inventory trends of PVC in - factory inventory, ethylene - based in - factory inventory, calcium carbide - based in - factory inventory, social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, and warehouse receipts [34][37][39] 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: Calcium carbide prices have continued to rebound. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide and Shandong calcium carbide has increased week - on - week. The text also provides charts showing the price trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide, calcium carbide inventory, and calcium carbide operating rate [47][49] - **Other Raw Materials**: Semi - coke prices have risen, while caustic soda prices have fallen. The text provides charts showing the price trends of semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot prices [52][53] 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the production capacity of PVC will be significantly increased, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. Multiple enterprises such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) will put new production capacity into operation. The total planned new production capacity in 2025 is 2.5 million tons/year [61][66] 6. Demand Side - The operating loads of the three major downstream industries of PVC have continued to improve. The operating rates of pipes, films, and profiles have either increased or remained stable. The pre - sales volume of PVC has also increased. However, regarding exports, due to the anti - dumping tax rate ruling in India, exports are expected to decline [78][11]