Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The current geopolitical situation is influencing the market, particularly in the commodities sector, with a focus on the rising prices of gold and oil [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold and oil prices are experiencing an upward trend, indicating potential investment opportunities in these commodities [1] - The live analysis by a senior researcher aims to provide insights into the current market dynamics and future trends for gold, oil, and other commodities [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The discussion includes a forward-looking perspective on the fundamentals affecting gold and oil prices, suggesting that ongoing geopolitical changes may continue to impact these markets [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices increased by over 1% to $3,299 due to uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies leading to a weaker dollar and a decline in U.S. stocks, alongside ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine attracting safe-haven buying [1] - On May 21, gold continued to rise, reaching a one-week high of $3,314.36, driven by reports of Israel preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, further supporting safe-haven demand for gold [1] - Investors are primarily focused on U.S. tax reform news, geopolitical developments, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, as well as changes in international trade dynamics [1] Group 2 - In the previous trading day, gold prices dipped to $3,204 before rebounding, with recommendations to buy between $3,206 and $3,209, resulting in significant profits as gold prices surged during the European session [3] - The daily chart shows two consecutive bullish candles, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards, and KDJ indicators transitioning from overbought to a bullish crossover, while MACD indicators show a reduction in bearish momentum [3] - The hourly chart indicates a high of $3,314.3 before a pullback, currently trading around $3,294, with KDJ indicators showing a bearish crossover and MACD indicators indicating a consolidation above the zero line, suggesting a short-term bearish trend [3] Group 3 - Recommendations for trading include buying gold around $3,261 to $3,264 with a stop loss at $3,255 and a take profit target of $3,290 to $3,300 [5] - Additionally, a recommendation to sell gold around $3,317 to $3,320 with a stop loss at $3,325 and a take profit target of $3,290 is provided [5]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have shown strong rebounds recently [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 20, gold prices opened at $3,230.66 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,204.50, and then surged to a high of $3,295.52, closing at $3,289.70, marking a daily increase of $59.04 or 1.83% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $91.02, indicating significant volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU and the UK, along with tensions surrounding Iran, have heightened market concerns, driving up gold prices [3][8]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below short-term moving averages, which may provide further support for gold prices [3][8]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and IMF's forecast of slower U.S. economic growth compared to global growth are contributing to a decline in the dollar's attractiveness [8]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-10 month moving averages and are showing signs of a potential upward trend, with a focus on the $2,900 to $3,500 range for future movements [10][12]. - The daily chart indicates a rebound from key support levels, suggesting a bullish outlook for the near term [12][13]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3,275 or $3,255 and resistance at $3,330 or $3,350 for gold [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $32.90 or $32.75, with resistance at $33.35 or $33.70 [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]

黄金开盘受到阻力压制，以及隔夜尾盘的震荡回撤之力，先行表现走弱； 另外，本周数据较少，影响有限，走势将继续依托关税贸易及地缘局势方向的指引进行波动。其在两者 不确和变化无常的情况下，金价将维持震荡走盘并偏走强，反之如表现缓和乐观，金价将回落再探上升 趋势线支撑位置。 日图；金价在如期触及上升趋势线支撑和60日均线支撑位置展开反弹，虽然未能进一步延续动力走强攀 升，但连续收取的触底形态，则暗示后市仍有进一步向上突破阻力的预期，那么后市在不跌破60日及上 升趋势线支撑前，仍将继续等待打破近日调整行情反弹走强。 分析；日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储穆萨莱姆就 经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。根据之前表达的，通胀上行与就业市场走弱风险并存，货币政策需保持 警惕的不确定前景观点来看，预计也仍对金价产生一定的利好。 另外，美元指数日图开盘，也延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，对其产生压力，整体上，走势维 持近期的震荡上行趋势发展，目前未能跌破支撑，而仍有继续走强触及200日均线阻力目标的预期，而 会对金价造成压力，使其维持震荡走盘。 但由于周图，上周冲高回落，有暗示反弹触顶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

张尧浠：关税出尽地缘风险升级、金价回踩支撑待涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收线，未能跌破10周均线及上升趋势线支撑，故此后市，则有望维持在此支撑上方宽幅区间震荡，或者再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开34美金至3294.82美元/盎司，便直接先行录得当周高点3305.91美元，之后连续走低跳水，于周四触及趋势线看涨支撑及60日 均线支撑等交点处，也既是当周低点3120.73美元，触底回升，强势拉升反弹，但仍遭遇一定阻力，而周五仍有所走弱运行，最终收于3198.78美元； 相对于开盘价，周振幅185.18美元，收跌96.04美元，跌幅2.91%。 相对于前周收盘价3328.85美元，周振幅208.12美元，收跌130.07美元，跌幅3.91%。 影响上，受到周末中美关税合谈和地缘局势乐观消息的影响，金价当周大幅低开并维持走低，之后，又在美国与其他国家的贸易关税协议接近达成，贸易 乐观情绪继续升温，以及美国表示不会在关税谈判中寻求弱势美元，打压金价进一步走低触及当周低点； 但由于关税压力影响有限，触及的低点又是强劲的看涨支撑，同时，美国4月CPI年率下降，提升了年内的降息预期，特朗普继续呼吁降息， ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金昨天走势无敌，昨天2193附近亚盘先跌3120附近，跌幅达72美元；欧盘探底回升迎来大涨，美盘突破日内高点并站上3200大关后加速，日线以长下影光 头大阳线收盘3240一线！ 未来相当长的一段时间里，黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡，然后寻求大区间突破！做多，做空，都可以，只要有充足的理由都可以，带 好损，不抗单，控制好仓位；只要不损，很容易大赚！ 黄金，昨天日内探底暴涨完成多空转换，日内大涨120美元；黄金在60日均线获得支撑并大涨，这波下跌又要告一段落了。接下来回归看涨，关注上方3270- 65阻力突破情况；但突破前谨防大幅度回落后再涨；一旦向上突破，多头将直奔周一跳空缺口3323-27区域，然后逐步冲击3400大关！ 黄金这种巨阳线一般不会回落太多，一旦回落又要折腾；所以，看涨的同时，也需要注意短期大涨用力过猛，再次上演深度调整继续扫荡的走势！今天行 情，大阳线理应顺势做多，但上方阻力强大，突破前随时有跳水风险，不适合追；顶着巨阳线做空，也不明智， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in international oil prices, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions and potential agreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations, which could significantly impact oil supply and prices [2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - On May 15, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping over 4% at one point, attributed mainly to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, indicated Iran's willingness to sign a nuclear agreement with the U.S. under specific conditions, which could lead to the lifting of economic sanctions [2][3]. Oil Production and Market Predictions - Citigroup reported a high likelihood of an agreement between Washington and Tehran, potentially increasing Iran's oil production to over 4 million barrels per day and releasing oil reserves [3]. - Following this, Citigroup raised its three-month price forecast for Brent crude by $5 to $60 per barrel, while maintaining average forecasts for the second and third quarters at $62 and $63, respectively [3][4]. Refinery Support and Market Dynamics - Refinery margins have been a significant factor supporting oil prices, with high residual fuel oil crack spreads bolstering global refining profitability [5]. - Citigroup noted that increased refinery profitability could stimulate capacity utilization and hedging activities, providing temporary support for Brent prices [5]. OPEC+ Production Decisions - The unexpected decision by OPEC+ to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in June contributed to the decline in international oil prices, with the third-quarter production forecast raised to a surplus of nearly 600,000 barrels per day [6]. U.S.-Iran Relations - President Trump issued a "final warning" to Iran, emphasizing that the U.S. would not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and urging Iran to choose between chaos and peace [7][9]. - Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate a new agreement with Iran, contingent on a change in Iran's current policies [9]. Iranian Response - Iranian officials, including President Raisi and Foreign Minister Zarif, rejected U.S. accusations of being a destabilizing force in the Middle East, asserting that U.S. sanctions and pressures have hindered Iran's development [10].