2026 年 2 月 10 日 总量研究 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？ 核心观点：地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的 上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高 通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选 举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显 现出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行。全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济 周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职后的"百日新政"引 发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信 用风险重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价。期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应 链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长债定价的新锚点。美债 "武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业 化与资源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能。当前利率曲线的陡峭化，起始于 2025 年 1 月 20 日特 朗普就职这一政治事项，但政治动能 ...

据美国"政治新闻网"2月9日报道，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特在接受该媒体采访时表示，他将很快前往 委内瑞拉与该国领导人会面，就石油开采相关问题展开讨论。报道称，赖特是特朗普政府对委展开军事 行动后访问该国的最高级别美国官员。赖特还在受访时辩称，特朗普政府展开军事行动的原因并不是看 中了该国石油财富。 部长克里斯·赖特 （资料图） 据报道，赖特主张，特朗普政府的对委行动"并非是为了获得更多石油供应"，该国的原油储量从来都不 是"决策过程中的重要因素"。"这是一个地缘政治问题，委内瑞拉对所有邻国、对整个西半球都构成威 胁。委内瑞拉的主要产品和巨大资源储量正好是石油，这或许只是一个巧合。"赖特辩称。 美国能源 赖特的说辞在网络上受到质疑。在社交媒体X上有网民留言说，既然赖特辩称"特朗普政府不看中石 油"，那他为什么还要去呢？还有网民写到，"特朗普看中的恰恰只有委内瑞拉的石油。" 1月3日，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，强行控制委总统马杜罗及其妻子并将他们带到美国。特 朗普称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡，美大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉投资。 事件发生后，特朗普屡次在公开场合谈及委内瑞拉的石油开采问题。 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices rebounded, closing at $5084.2 per ounce, reflecting a 2.10% increase, while domestic SHFE gold also saw a rise of 1.00% to ¥1127.00 per gram, indicating a recovery in the gold market amid cautious monetary policy signals from the U.S. Treasury Secretary [2][7]. Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that even with Waller as Fed Chair, the balance sheet reduction will not be expedited, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy under the Trump administration [2][7]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 69,000 jobs for January, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4%, slightly below the four-year high of 4.5% reached in November [2][7]. - A significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs is anticipated in the employment data, which could indicate a slower hiring pace [2][7]. Geopolitical Context - Tensions in the Gulf region persist, with ongoing U.S.-Iran-Oman negotiations failing to reach a consensus, maintaining the risk of conflict between the two nations [3][8]. - The sell-off in precious metals is nearing its end, but upward pressure remains in the market, complicating predictions due to geopolitical uncertainties [3][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations and outlooks for multiple commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products. It analyzes factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical events, and market sentiment to predict price trends [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Metals - **Aluminum**: The approved power transmission project in Inner Mongolia will boost aluminum consumption in the long - term. Currently, due to the traditional off - season, the market is quiet. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival and recover after [1]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the steel market is mostly closed, with low winter - storage willingness and weak post - holiday demand expectations. Iron ore has a supply surplus, and steel prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short - term. Iron ore prices will likely fluctuate in the short - term due to inventory pressure and macro - expectations [4]. - **Coke**: With the expected resumption of downstream steel mills, the coke supply - demand structure remains healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may stabilize, and the futures price will follow coking coal [5]. - **Copper**: Global mining capital is accelerating the layout of long - term copper projects, but the impact on the current supply shortage is limited. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is quiet, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Russian oil production has declined, and the U.S. has increased sanctions on Russia. The market is waiting for the results of the U.S. - Iran negotiations. Geopolitical factors are the main drivers of oil prices, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol has a high operating rate, while downstream demand is decreasing, and port inventory is accumulating. The inland market is relatively strong in some areas, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply may increase slightly, while demand has basically ended. It is affected by the cost side, and short - term trading is recommended [11]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the domestic terminal提货 speed has accelerated, more ships have been purchased in the near - term, and inventory has increased, suppressing the basis price. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills has risen significantly and is at a historically high level. Due to losses in the breeding industry, demand is weak. The price is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support level [6][7]. - **Pork**: The national pig price continues to decline, with pressure on the supply side and insufficient demand. The short - term downward space is limited, and short - long positions in far - month contracts are recommended [5]. 3.4 Others - **Soda Ash**: The float glass industry has stable production but rising inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with a supply surplus and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [9]. - **Plastic**: As the Spring Festival approaches, production is expected to be stable, but production enterprise inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate slightly weakly in the short - term [10]. - **Rubber**: Overseas rubber - producing areas have entered the off - season, supporting prices, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching holiday. Rubber prices will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term [11]. - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Tightening of the money supply is negative for short - term bonds, but bond prices are rising. The short - term direction of the bond market is unclear, and it is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Silver and Gold**: Employment data may cause market fluctuations, and consumer confidence is positive for silver. Geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the U.S. support gold prices. Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the medium - term [12][13].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 品种：铜（CU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the transition into an "Asian Century," highlighting the decline of American dominance and the rise of China as a global power [1][2] - It emphasizes that while the U.S. is abandoning multilateralism, globalization's winners are primarily in Asia, with China and the U.S. now on equal footing in many areas [2][3] - The article notes that China's industrial strength and innovation capabilities have significantly increased, with statistics showing that from 2011 to 2013, China's cement consumption exceeded that of the U.S. for the entire 20th century [3] Group 2 - The article argues that the current global power structure is in a complex transition, where the rise of one power often leads to the decline of another, specifically pointing out Germany's diminishing role in the new order [4] - It highlights that the political mechanisms known since 1945 are becoming ineffective, and there is a need for European strategic autonomy in shaping a multipolar world [4] - The article suggests that the future political landscape should focus on resilience and managing decline with dignity, as the traditional narratives of progress may no longer hold true [4]

环球网消息，据美国"政治新闻网"2月9日报道，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特在接受该媒体采访时表示，他将很快前往委内瑞拉与该国领导人会面，就石油开 采相关问题展开讨论。报道称，赖特是特朗普政府对委展开军事行动后访问该国的最高级别美国官员。赖特还在受访时辩称，特朗普政府展开军事行动的原 因并不是看中了该国石油财富。 美国能源部长克里斯·赖特 资料图片 据报道，赖特主张，特朗普政府的对委行动"并非是为了获得更多石油供应"，该国的原油储量从来都不是"决策过程中的重要因素"。"这是一个地缘政治问 题，委内瑞拉对所有邻国、对整个西半球都构成威胁。委内瑞拉的主要产品和巨大资源储量正好是石油，这或许只是一个巧合。"赖特辩称。 赖特补充说，他此次访问委内瑞拉的首要任务是"与委内瑞拉人进行面对面的直接交流"，包括委政府官员和石油天然气行业的领导层。他还表示，他计划与 委内瑞拉官员就委内瑞拉国家石油公司的未来领导层"展开对话"。报道称，该公司是特朗普政府推动国际石油公司在委内瑞拉投资的一大障碍。 赖特的说辞在网络上受到质疑。在社交媒体X上有网民留言说，既然赖特辩称"特朗普政府不看中石油"，那他为什么还要去呢？还有网民写到，"特朗普看 ...

1月3日，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，强行控制委总统马杜罗及其妻子并将他们带到美国。特朗普称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过 渡，美大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉投资。 事件发生后，特朗普屡次在公开场合谈及委内瑞拉的石油开采问题。特朗普1月9日在白宫与美国大型石油企业高管举行会议，他向高管们施压，要求他们迅 速推动在委内瑞拉的石油开采投资。 尽管美国石油巨头大多对进入委内瑞拉石油市场持观望态度，但部分跨国贸易集团已率先开始了对委库存石油的销售。特朗普1月21日在瑞士达沃斯举办的 世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时说，"上周我们从委内瑞拉获取了5000万桶原油。" 据报道，赖特主张，特朗普政府的对委行动"并非是为了获得更多石油供应"，该国的原油储量从来都不是"决策过程中的重要因素"。"这是一个地缘政治问 题，委内瑞拉对所有邻国、对整个西半球都构成威胁。委内瑞拉的主要产品和巨大资源储量正好是石油，这或许只是一个巧合。"赖特辩称。 赖特补充说，他此次访问委内瑞拉的首要任务是"与委内瑞拉人进行面对面的直接交流"，包括委政府官员和石油天然气行业的领导层。他还表示，他计划与 委内瑞拉官员就委内瑞拉国家石油公司的未来 ...