Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant fluctuations in international oil prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly affecting the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $103.14 and $98.71 per barrel respectively as of March 13, 2026 [9][10]. - Short-term price volatility for certain petrochemical products is expected to increase due to the Iranian conflict, while medium-term price levels may rise, although long-term price increases are anticipated to be limited due to potential recovery of oil import channels and existing overcapacity [10]. - The importance of land-connected pipelines between the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf is expected to increase, prompting related countries to consider enhancing pipeline capacities in response to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of March 13, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $103.14 per barrel, up $10.45 (11.27%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $98.71 per barrel, an increase of $7.81 (8.59%) [2][28]. - The report notes that the Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude saw a significant increase of $19.50 (27.57%) to $90.22 per barrel [28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The global number of offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was reported at 372, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 134 [35]. Oil Supply - As of March 6, 2026, U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.678 million barrels per day, a decrease of 18,000 barrels from the previous week [45]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 1 to 412, while the number of fracturing fleets rose by 2 to 172 [45]. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.169 million barrels per day, up 328,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.80%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points [50]. Oil Inventory - As of March 6, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 858.9 million barrels, an increase of 3.825 million barrels (0.45%) from the previous week [61].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to benefit from legislative measures aimed at reducing "involution" competition, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving quality, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong Express and Jitu Express [2] - The chemical logistics sector is anticipated to improve due to rising chemical prices, with a focus on companies such as Milkway, Hongchuan Wisdom, and Xingtong [3] - The aviation sector is projected to recover with a 3.34% year-on-year increase in international passenger flights for the summer season, supported by rising oil prices and the upcoming travel peak during the May holiday [4] - The shipping sector is closely monitoring developments in the US-Iran conflict, which may impact oil and container shipping rates [5] - The road and rail sector is expected to benefit from rising oil prices, enhancing the competitiveness of rail transport, particularly for coal transportation [6] Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.0% from March 7 to March 13, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.2%, underperforming the market by 1.2% [1][13] Express Delivery - The total volume of express delivery collected was approximately 3.923 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, while the total delivery volume was about 4.116 billion pieces, up 8.7% year-on-year [2] Logistics - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) reached 5051 points, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights in China reached 15,525, a year-on-year increase of 10.55%, with domestic flights increasing by 11.28% [4] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1072.16 points, a week-on-week increase of 1.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [5][23] Road and Rail - The total number of trucks passing through national highways was 46.014 million, a week-on-week increase of 40.64% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.28% [6][85]

地缘政治扰动，价格大幅走强 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2026年3月15日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上周 | 本周 | 周环比 | 下周 | 下下周 | 综述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产量 | 国产量 | 72.07 | 68.32 | -3.75 | 58.03 | 57.07 | 本周产量略微减少，下周可能会继续有 装置降负荷，预计产量继续减少。 | | （万吨） | 检修损失量 | | | | | | | | 进出口 | 进口量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polypropylene market has been significantly affected by geopolitical factors, with the market showing a strong upward trend. The supply side is facing challenges due to increased unexpected maintenance and production cuts, while the demand side is expected to gradually pick up. The cost side has strengthened significantly, and the profit situation varies among different production processes. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, but there is a risk of correction [1][6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - Geopolitical disturbances have led to a significant increase in the polypropylene market. The supply side is affected by increased unexpected maintenance and production cuts, while the demand side is expected to gradually pick up. The cost side has strengthened significantly, and the profit situation varies among different production processes [1][6][7]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's production decreased slightly to 722,600 tons, a decrease of 45,800 tons from last week. In the next two weeks, more devices will be shut down for maintenance or operate at reduced loads, and production is expected to continue to decline, with an estimated output of 655,800 tons and 651,800 tons respectively. The maintenance loss this week was 198,000 tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from last week [6]. - There are many unexpected PP maintenance cases. Multiple companies have device maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026, which will affect production. In 2025, new production capacity was added, with a total of 4.555 million tons. In 2026, new production capacity is planned to be added, with a total of 6.1 million tons [15][19][20]. Demand - The current downstream demand is not very good. However, next week's demand is expected to continue to strengthen slightly, with the apparent demand reaching 829,300 tons [6][41]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory decreased slightly to 938,400 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons from last week. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease next week, and the impact of upstream production cuts is expected to be apparent. Upstream inventory, including coal - chemical, PDH, and ground - refinery inventories, decreased to some extent, while the inventory of "Two - oil" increased. Mid - stream inventory also decreased slightly [6]. 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 626 last week to - 855 this week, a decrease of 229. The 5 - 9 month spread increased from 407 last week to 552 this week, an increase of 145, showing a strengthening trend of the 5 - 9 positive spread. The 9 - 1 month spread increased from 219 last week to 303 this week, an increase of 84. - The East China basis increased from - 200 last week to 0 this week, an increase of 200. The North China basis increased from - 250 last week to - 200 this week, an increase of 50. The South China basis decreased from 0 last week to - 100 this week, a decrease of 100, showing a weakening trend. The spot basis fluctuates greatly [8]. Product Spread - The fiber - to - draw ratio increased from 50 last week to 250 this week, an increase of 200. The co - polymer - to - draw ratio remained unchanged at 250. The injection - to - draw ratio increased from 50 last week to 100 this week, an increase of 50. The pellet - to - powder ratio in North China increased from - 100 last week to 0 this week, an increase of 100. The pellet - to - powder ratio in East China increased from - 150 last week to 0 this week, an increase of 150. The narrow spread between pellets and powders has a certain supporting effect on pellet prices [8]. Disk Spread - The PP - 3MA on the 01 - contract disk decreased from - 179 last week to - 190 this week, a decrease of 11, showing a strengthening trend. The PP - 3MA on the 05 - contract disk increased from 39 last week to 125 this week, an increase of 86. The PP - 3MA on the 09 - contract disk increased from - 44 last week to 41 this week, an increase of 85. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on PP and short on MA. The LL - PP on the 01 - contract disk increased from 183 last week to 271 this week, an increase of 88. The LL - PP on the 05 - contract disk increased from - 106 last week to - 67 this week, an increase of 39, showing a weakening trend. The LL - PP on the 09 - contract disk increased from 66 last week to 183 this week, an increase of 117. The LL - PP was volatile this week [8]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - Upstream: The situation of upstream device load reduction has worsened, and production is expected to be significantly affected, with output lower than expected. Some upstream companies have postponed their delivery plans [10]. - Mid - stream: Spot trading has slightly deteriorated. Some agents have started to sell off their goods due to poor spot liquidity and concerns about difficulties in selling when prices fall [10]. - Downstream: After the previous restocking, the inventory has gradually become sufficient, and the situation of downstream panic - buying has eased [10]. Strategies - Futures - cash: Pay attention to futures - cash arbitrage opportunities [10]. - Inter - month: Consider exiting the 5 - 9 positive spread [10]. - Cross - variety: None for the time being [10]. - Unilateral: It is recommended to adopt a volatile and slightly strong mindset, but beware of the risk of correction [10]. - Options: Buy put options [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the polyester sector, due to geopolitical conflicts, the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to rise. The cost of PTA is driven by the increase in crude oil and PX prices, and the supply of ethylene glycol is reduced, leading to a strong market trend [7][10][12]. - In the pulp sector, the short - term cost supports the price, but the demand suppresses it. The fundamentals have limited driving force, and the market will fluctuate with the sector [20]. - In the soda ash sector, in the short term, the soda ash futures price may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors. In the long term, due to the weak fundamentals of oversupply and weak demand, the market still faces downward price pressure [60][62][80]. 3. Summary by Directory Polyester 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Last week, geopolitical conflicts caused large fluctuations in crude oil prices. The conflict in the Persian Gulf led to a suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up PTA prices due to cost factors and causing PTA enterprises to reduce their loads. The supply of ethylene glycol decreased, and its price first rose and then fell, and finally rose again [6]. - This week, the price of crude oil will fluctuate widely due to the situation in the Middle East. The cost of PX will still be the main driving factor. The supply of PX may decrease, and the demand for PTA is expected to increase, so the PTA market is expected to rise. The supply of ethylene glycol will continue to decrease, and the market is expected to remain strong [7][10][12]. 3.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: The operating rate of terminal looms has increased, driving up the operating load of polyester. However, due to the high - level fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, downstream products' prices will continue to fluctuate sharply. The support from consumption for PTA and ethylene glycol is weak in the short term [8]. - **PTA**: Last week, the price of PX first rose and then fell and then rose again. This week, the price of PX is expected to be strong, and the PTA market is expected to rise. The estimated weekly output of PTA is about 1.5 million tons [9][10]. - **MEG**: Last week, the average operating load rate of the ethylene glycol industry decreased. The inventory in the main ports of East China decreased. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol improved significantly. This week, the supply of ethylene glycol will continue to decrease, and the market is expected to remain strong [11][12]. Pulp 3.1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - As of Thursday, the 05 contract of pulp closed at 5,252 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45%. The spot prices of wood pulp in the market showed a differentiated trend. In the short term, the cost supports the price, but the demand suppresses it, and the market will fluctuate with the sector [19][20]. 3.2. Fundamental Changes - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In December, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The ratio of global commodity chemical pulp shipment volume to production capacity increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [21]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In February, China's paper pulp imports decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, the import volume of coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp increased compared with the same period last year [25]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory**: At the end of December, the inventory days of coniferous pulp of global producers increased, while that of broad - leaf pulp decreased. As of the end of February, the weekly paper pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [32]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of downstream base paper are mainly stable, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for raw material replenishment is not high, with light transactions [20]. Soda Ash 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of soda ash (SA605) showed a volatile trend. The price fluctuated greatly, with a weekly increase of 2.82%. On March 13, the position was 973,800 lots, with a daily reduction of 15,555 lots [57]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, the soda ash futures price may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors. In the long term, due to the weak fundamentals of oversupply and weak demand, the market still faces downward price pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to inventory changes and device maintenance dynamics and control positions rationally [60][62][80]. 3.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: In the week of March 12, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash increased, and the weekly output increased. The supply pressure is significant, and the cost - profit relationship is differentiated, but it has not led to a contraction in supply [63][64]. - **Inventory**: In the week of March 12, China's soda ash enterprise inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. High inventory has become the norm, and the supply - demand imbalance is serious [72][73]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot price of soda ash moved up slightly, and the performance among regions was more stable. The upward elasticity of the spot price is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [74]. - **Downstream**: This week, the demand for soda ash is weak, mainly for rigid procurement. The demand for float glass and photovoltaic glass is weak, and the recovery of the light - soda downstream is slow [78][79]. - **Summary**: In the short term, the soda ash futures price may fluctuate more. In the long term, the market still faces downward price pressure. The market deadlock needs to wait for the real capacity clearance on the supply side [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including daily and weekly price changes, and elaborates on the influencing factors and future trends of each commodity. The overall market is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on the prices of energy, metals, and agricultural products. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East suppress interest - rate cut expectations, but domestic policy expectations form a bottom support. After the Two Sessions, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan may bring unexpected information and drive the market stronger [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Domestic monetary policy is favorable for the bond market, and the US - Iran conflict increases trading activity [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz support spot freight rates, but regulatory pressure and market caution lead to short - term high - level oscillations [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US - Iran conflict and US tariff policies bring uncertainties. Rising production costs in South Africa provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks exist due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the rising US dollar and bond yields suppress precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to panic selling under liquidity risks [5]. - **Copper**: The approaching FOMC meeting and geopolitical conflicts suppress copper prices. Demand shows structural characteristics, and inventory reduction speed is the key to price trends [5]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of natural gas in Qatar affects the production of electrolytic aluminum. Short - term trends are dominated by the war situation [6]. - **Alumina**: Affected by the prices of aluminum and other varieties, it shows short - term price rebounds but a long - term surplus situation. Attention should be paid to new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the price of Shanghai aluminum and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand is facing inventory pressure. Short - term prices may be suppressed, and future trends depend on the development of the Iran situation and inventory reduction [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Supply fluctuations in Indonesia increase uncertainty. The market is in the peak season, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of demand [9]. - **Tin**: Geopolitical factors are the main driver. Supply is tight, and demand is gradually recovering. High inventory suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term market is affected by the Middle East situation, but long - term demand growth supports prices. Attention should be paid to downstream production and inventory reduction in March [11]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The long - term development prospects are clear, but the short - term market is in a wide - range oscillation due to capacity cycle and supply - demand changes [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of this week's delivery and secondary lead delivery [12]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up the prices of raw materials, providing cost support. However, high inventory and export resistance limit the short - term rebound [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Tight spot liquidity drives up prices, but concerns about supply sustainability increase the probability of short - term reversal [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The terminal demand verification period in March - April is affected by the late Spring Festival and geopolitical factors. The overall price of the black series may face downward pressure, and the price elasticity of coal and coke is restricted [14]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Although the cost support is increasing, weak downstream demand and high inventory limit the upward space [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The core driving factor is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and different attitudes of the conflicting parties increase price fluctuations [16]. - **Fuel Oil**: Supply constraints support the market, and the short - term strong situation is difficult to change [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to decrease, and inventory is seasonally increasing. Prices follow the cost of crude oil, and geopolitical factors are the main driver. Attention should be paid to price drops after the situation eases [17][18]. - **LPG**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz supports prices. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the short - term market is oscillating strongly [18]. - **Methanol**: Geopolitical conflicts and industry profit repair are the core driving factors. Attention should be paid to risks when the situation eases [19]. - **Plastics**: Middle - East conflicts lead to supply reduction expectations, and the market is turning to "supply decrease and demand increase", with prices rising [19]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical and macro factors have a negative impact on demand. Synthetic rubber is oscillating strongly, and natural rubber is rising [20]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively stable. Inventory is better than expected. The price space is limited, and attention should be paid to the accumulation of industrial contradictions [21]. - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations continue, but high intermediate inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase. Demand needs to be verified [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is at a high level, demand is differentiated, and inventory is high. Export expectations and geopolitical emotions drive the market, but high inventory and weak domestic demand limit the upward space [23]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The market is mainly affected by weak post - Spring Festival demand, and price decline is limited, but the upward driving force is weak [24]. - **Oilseeds**: The expected Sino - US negotiation in April, rising planting costs, and improved export expectations drive up soybean prices. The domestic market follows the US soybean market [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market rebounds following crude oil, and policies in Indonesia and the US are favorable. Attention should be paid to the development of the Iran situation and the US bio - fuel policy review [25]. - **Cotton**: Tight domestic supply - demand expectations support prices, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical conflicts pose pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [25]. - **Sugar**: Rising oil prices drive up the price of Brazilian ethanol, leading to expectations of tightened sugar supply. The short - term strong situation is expected to continue [26][27]. - **Eggs**: Concentrated demand release supports prices, but high egg - laying hen inventory limits the upward space [27]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on demand, and the current downstream sales are weak. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt market experienced significant fluctuations, mainly due to the bidirectional volatility of crude oil influenced by geopolitical factors. The price fluctuations of asphalt are mainly affected by oil price transmission and market sentiment, while the fundamental factors have relatively limited impact on the asphalt market [8][58]. - The core factor influencing oil prices is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. As there are significant differences between the US and Iran regarding a cease - fire, the conflict may continue, making short - term navigation in the Strait of Hormuz difficult. Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries face the risk of an expanded production cut, which may further raise the oil price center [8][58]. - The IEA's release of the largest - ever strategic oil reserves may cool market sentiment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the release speed. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the oil supply gap continues to widen, the release of oil reserves may not change the oil price trend [8][58]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have collectively cut production, and the IEA has released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [7]. - **Key Data**: As of March 11, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 20%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of March 13, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 786,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish Factors**: The continued interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the decline in supply [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The IEA's release of oil reserves [12]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - **Cease - fire Outlook**: The prospect of a cease - fire is dim, but the intensity and scale may decrease. The US has not achieved its pre - war goals and is under pressure from domestic politics, energy market turmoil, and Iran's tough stance. Iran is gradually gaining an advantage and may seek greater interests by controlling the Strait of Hormuz [14][15]. - **Strait of Hormuz Navigation**: Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted. Iran has strengthened its control over the strait, and its new leadership is expected to continue its tough policy. It is expected that the navigation interruption will continue until a complete cease - fire is reached between the two sides [17][18]. - **Middle - Eastern Oil - producing Countries' Production Cuts**: As of March 10, the combined production cut of the four Gulf countries reached 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% - 7% of the global oil supply. If the strait remains blocked, the production cut scale may expand [19]. - **IEA's Release of Strategic Oil Reserves**: The IEA announced on the 11th that it will provide 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. The impact on the crude oil market depends on the release speed. The US has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil [20]. 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: As of March 13, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 20% as of March 11, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period. Due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, raw material shortages may keep the refinery operating rate at a low level [21][28]. - **Demand**: As of March 13, the weekly domestic asphalt shipment volume was 287,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the previous statistical period but a decrease of 2,000 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 0.73% as of March 13, an increase of 0.59 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected to remain at a low level in the near future [31][34]. - **Inventory**: As of March 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 786,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week [40][47]. - **Price Difference**: As of March 13, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 12, the domestic asphalt basis was 60 yuan/ton. As of March 11, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 43.5. The cracking spread decreased month - on - month, and the basis strengthened significantly [56]. 3.5 Future Market Judgment - The fundamental factors of asphalt have relatively limited impact on the market. Price fluctuations are mainly affected by oil price transmission and market sentiment. The core factor influencing oil prices is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict may continue, and the oil price center may rise further. The IEA's release of oil reserves may cool market sentiment in the short term, but if the strait remains blocked, it may not change the oil price trend [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the crude oil market fluctuated violently. Geopolitics was the core influencing factor. The geopolitical risk premium rapidly declined, the IEA's release of strategic oil reserves was expected to suppress the market, and the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz provided support for the market. The future geopolitical situation remains unclear, and the risk of continued conflict is high. The IEA's release of strategic oil reserves may affect market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the oil price trend under the continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can be effectively navigable is still the key factor affecting the oil price trend. If the interruption continues, the pricing model of the market is expected to shift from "risk premium" to "supply gap", and the oil price center is expected to move up further. If the Strait of Hormuz is conditionally navigable under the mediation of international diplomatic forces, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price is expected to decline. Short - term fluctuations intensify, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [8][55] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus: The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries collectively cut production, and the IEA releases 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [7] - Key data: From the week ending March 6, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.824 million barrels, the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.001 million barrels [7] - Main view: The crude oil market fluctuated violently this week. Geopolitics was the core influencing factor. The future geopolitical situation is unclear, and the oil price trend depends on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Short - term fluctuations intensify, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [8] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of geopolitical conflicts [11] - Bearish factors: IEA's release of strategic oil reserves, temporary exemption of Russian oil sanctions by the US [11] Macroeconomic Analysis - Cease - fire prospects: The cease - fire prospects are slim, but the intensity and scale may decline. Trump made contradictory statements, Iran put forward cease - fire conditions, and the new supreme leader of Iran stated that he would not give up revenge and the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed [13][14] - Strait of Hormuz: The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted. Iran has made multiple statements on the control of the strait, and the interruption is expected to continue until the two sides achieve a complete cease - fire [16][17] - Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries' production cuts: As of March 10, the total production cuts of four Gulf countries reached 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% - 7% of the global oil supply. If the interruption of the strait continues, the production cuts may expand [18] - IEA's release of strategic oil reserves: The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest scale in history. The impact on the crude oil market depends on the release speed. The US temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil [19] Data Analysis - Supply side: US crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of oil drilling rigs increased slightly but is expected to remain at a low level [20][23] - Demand: The operating rate of US refineries is in a seasonal recovery cycle, the operating rate of 16 European refineries is expected to recover, the operating rate of Chinese refineries has declined, and domestic refineries may face the pressure of reducing production [26][30][36] - Profit: The profits of domestic refineries have increased rapidly [42] - Inventory: EIA commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing area inventory increased, and gasoline inventory decreased. Crude oil production remaining high may lead to inventory accumulation [47][51] - Crack spread: The US crude oil crack spread has rebounded significantly [52] Future Outlook - The future geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of continued conflict is high. The IEA's release of strategic oil reserves is difficult to reverse the oil price trend. The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is the key factor affecting the oil price. If the interruption continues, the oil price center is expected to move up further; if it is conditionally navigable, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price is expected to decline [55]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Baofeng Energy [4][7]. Core Views - Baofeng Energy reported significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit for 2025, with revenue reaching 48.038 billion yuan, a 45.64% increase, and net profit at 11.350 billion yuan, a 79.09% increase [1][3]. - The company benefited from geopolitical factors that led to a substantial increase in product prices, particularly in the polyolefin segment, despite a decline in prices towards the end of 2025 [7]. - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2026-2028, with projections of 14.762 billion yuan, 15.699 billion yuan, and 16.629 billion yuan respectively, driven by rising oil prices and product prices [7][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - For 2025, Baofeng Energy's total revenue was 48.038 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46% [3]. - The company’s operating profit for 2025 was 13.669 billion yuan, reflecting a 75% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 2.01 yuan, 2.14 yuan, and 2.27 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.8, 15.8, and 14.9 [8][7].

2026 年 3 月 13 日 LPG：地缘不确定性较高 丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，供应存减量预期 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG、丙烯基本面数据 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 期货研究 图 1：FEI 丙烷升贴水 图 2：美湾丙烷升贴水 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2604 2605 | 5,641 | 3.56% 4.27% | 5,706 | 1.15% 0.89% | PG | 2604 2605 | 193,477 | 41,462 | 48,813 | -5,155 120 | | | | | 5,514 | | 5,563 ...