Core Viewpoint - The Wuhan Municipal Housing and Urban Renewal Bureau has announced an extension of certain real estate policy deadlines to promote stable and healthy development in the local real estate market [1] Group 1: Policy Extension - The deadline for the policy regarding the optimization of new residential property project approval services has been extended to December 31, 2025 [1] - From October 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, purchasing new residential properties in Wuhan will qualify as a first home for families, allowing for a full rebate on the paid deed tax [1] - For families purchasing a second home, a 50% rebate on the paid deed tax will be provided [1]

根据吉林省财政厅数据，今年前5个月吉林一般公共预算收入562.2亿元，增长15%。这一增速远高于全 国一般公共预算收入增速（-0.3%）和地方一般公共预算本级收入平均增速（1.9%）。 第一财经根据各省份财政部门披露数据梳理发现，截至6月底已有江苏、北京等17个省份公开了当地 2025年一般公共预算收支情况。 17个省份中前5个月一般公共预算收入保持增长的有15个省份，其中增速最高的是吉林省。 今年以来地方财政收入普遍低速增长，而支出保持扩张，财政收支矛盾依然较大。 近期部分省份相继披露2025年前5月财政收支情况，由此可以一窥地方财政运行情况。 | 省份 | 前5月一般公共预算收入(亿元) | | 增速(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 江苏 | | 4855 | 1.8 | | 上海 | | 4103. 5 | 0. 3 | | 北京 | | 2969. 1 | 2. 6 | | 四川 | | 2595. 3 | 4.1 | | 河北 | | 1966. 8 | 0. 4 | | 湖南 | | 1469. 3 | 1.7 | | 陕西 | | 1394. 4 | -3.7 ...

Group 1 - New World Development Company Limited has reached a new bank financing and unified bank financing agreement covering approximately HKD 88.2 billion of existing unsecured financial debt [1] - The company's financial management strategy focuses on reducing liabilities and improving cash flow, while continuing to fulfill existing financial responsibilities [1] - The recovery of the real estate market in Hong Kong and mainland China, along with the growth in demand for high-end residential properties, has led to the successful launch of several "phenomenal" hot-selling projects [1] Group 2 - As of June 25, the company has achieved its contract sales target of HKD 26 billion for the fiscal year 2024/2025 [1] - In the mainland market, projects in Guangzhou and Shenyang have led sales, with Shenyang's project topping the residential sales chart in May [1] - In Hong Kong, the super luxury project "滶晨" has sold over 330 units at a maximum price of over HKD 538,000 per square meter, attracting both local and overseas buyers [2]

后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 逢高空思维。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-06-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1181 | 环比 数据指标 -15 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 1006 | 环比 -13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 175 | -2 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1588831 | 79343 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1470350 | 30678 纯 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭 联系人| 贾东旭 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 报告正文 事件：6月27日，央行发布中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会全文。 经济形势分析：社会信心持续提振，但仍面临国内需求不足、物价持续低位运行等挑战。 央行对上半年经济表现给予高度评价，指出"我国经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振"。 较一季度例 会"我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进"的表述更显积极，尤其突出社会信心的修复。后续央行或根据经济 形势与预期变化动态调整政策节奏。 风险挑战方面，会议在延续"国内需求不足"判断的同时，新增"物价持续低位运行"的表述。 事实上，一季 度货币政策执行报告已提升对物价的关注度，专栏六分析实体经济供求关系及物价变动，明确提出"价格 调控思路上，也要从以前的管高价转向管低价，从支持规模扩张转向高质量发展，从防垄断转向防无序竞 争。" 货币政策思路：灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏。 关于后续政策操作，会议提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，与货币政策执行报告表述一致，预示政 策将更注重执行中的动态响应。 会议将一季度"择机降准降息"，修调整为上述表述，或因当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has been increasingly sluggish over the past two years, with high property prices in major cities leading to a lack of buyers and a significant number of unsold properties [1][4][35]. Group 1: Market Challenges - The real estate market faces three major challenges: the issue of vacant properties, the surge in foreclosed properties, and the problem of unfinished buildings [2][6][16]. - The number of vacant properties in China is approximately 130 million, which could theoretically accommodate 300 to 400 million people, highlighting a significant waste of resources due to speculative buying [8][10]. - The increase in foreclosed properties has been dramatic, with over 1.6 million in 2021, rising to over 3 million in 2022, and projected to exceed 3.5 million in 2023, driven by economic uncertainty and rising defaults [17][19][21]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The rise in vacant and foreclosed properties is causing a strain on banks, leading to increased operational costs and potential liquidity issues, which could further destabilize the financial system [23][41]. - The unfinished buildings, or "zombie projects," are a result of developers mismanaging funds and facing tightening financing conditions, which negatively impacts urban development and the overall economy [27][29][39]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current real estate environment is characterized by a shift back to the fundamental value of housing, with location becoming a critical factor, while the overall market remains oversupplied [33][41]. - The government is attempting to stimulate the market by expanding the buyer pool and reducing restrictions, but significant disparities between property prices and income levels persist, complicating recovery efforts [35][43].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market faced a significant downturn in 2022, with a sharp decline in both new and second-hand housing sales, reflecting a shift from a previously booming market to a state of "poor operation" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - From January to July 2022, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 23.1% year-on-year, totaling 780 million square meters [1]. - The second-hand housing market also showed weakness, with over 13 cities experiencing more than 100,000 listings [1]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The pandemic and economic pressures have led to a slowdown in household income growth, causing many families to abandon their home-buying plans. The central bank's survey indicates a significant increase in savings willingness, while investment and consumption intentions have weakened [3]. - Urbanization rate in China has reached 64%, limiting future growth potential in the housing market. The transition from large-scale shantytown renovations to old city renovations has diminished the purchasing incentives previously provided by demolition compensation [3]. Group 3: Price and Supply Issues - In August, the average housing price in 60 key cities reached 17,593 yuan per square meter, with typical homes costing between 2 to 3 million yuan. This high price level severely restricts purchasing power, especially as the average monthly income for ordinary residents ranges from 3,000 to 6,000 yuan [6]. - The housing ownership rate in China is as high as 96%, with 41.5% of families owning two or more properties. An estimated 10 million vacant homes exist nationwide, indicating a saturated market where demand has been largely met [6]. Group 4: Demographic Trends - The continuous decline in marriage rates and birth rates has further weakened housing demand. From 2013 to 2021, the marriage rate dropped from 9.9‰ to 5.4‰, significantly impacting the need for housing as high property prices and child-rearing costs deter young people from marrying and buying homes [8]. - The combination of high housing prices, low income, oversupply, and demographic changes has created a complex situation for the real estate market, indicating that future challenges will require collaborative efforts from the government, businesses, and individuals to achieve sustainable development [8].

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-30） | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货成交偏弱，基差继续收窄。上期全球铁矿石发运总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 量、到港量环比回升，整体处于近年来同期高位水平，铁矿发运有冲量预 | | | | | 期。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。铁矿 | | | | | 石整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面， | | | | | 铁矿供需过剩格局不变，短期在煤焦安全检查影响炒作下，以及铁水高位 | | | | | 支撑下，板块跟随反弹，后期关注铁水动向。 | | | | | 煤焦：近日主产区环保检查升级，内蒙乌海及临汾地区停产煤矿及洗煤厂 | | | | | 较多，部分煤矿和洗煤厂暂停拉运，焦煤现货供应自本月中旬以来持续回 | | | 煤焦 | 反弹 | 落，煤焦迎来强势 ...

房地产 证券研究报告 2025 上半年土地市场总结 行业追踪（2025.6.21-2025.6.27） 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 从全国表现看，2025 年前 5 月，国有土地使用权出让收入 11281 亿元，同比下降 11.9%。 根据中指院统计，2025 年上半年（截至 6 月 25 日），300 城住宅用地供应面积-18.6%，成 交面积-6.8%，土地出让金同比+24.5%，均溢价率 10.3%，较去年同期提升 6.2pct。分能 级看，一/二/三线城市推出面积分别同比+14.4%/-2.1%/-24.6%，成交面积分别同比 +17.6%/+15.7%/-14.5%，土地出让金分别同比+47.3%/+36.5%/-1.1%，平均溢价率分别 为 11.9%/14.3%/3.6%。从城市表现看，2025 上半年 TOP20 城市出让金占全国比重为 66% （2024 年全年：51%），集中度继续提升。上半年土地出让金领先的城市分别为杭州/北京/ 上海/成都，分别为 1010/1006/638/366 亿元，溢价率同样明显优于其他城市。其他如武汉、 南京、郑州、天津等城市土地市场持续调整，绝大多数底价出让 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond financing for real estate companies is approaching a "recovery" critical point, with positive signals emerging in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance and Market Confidence - In June, New City Development launched a USD 300 million bond issuance, marking the first dollar bond issued by a private real estate company this year, which helps boost market confidence [2][3]. - High-quality private enterprises like Midea Real Estate and Binjiang Real Estate successfully issued bonds in the first half of the year, indicating a recovery trend in the bond market [2][4]. - The issuance of bonds by New City Development and Greentown China is seen as a significant step in restoring investor confidence in Chinese real estate companies [3][4]. Group 2: Debt Repayment and Future Outlook - The year 2025 is projected to be a peak year for debt repayment for New City Development, with a total of CNY 10.9 billion in domestic bonds and USD 1 billion in overseas bonds maturing [3][6]. - The overall bond repayment scale in the real estate sector is decreasing, with a significant reduction in the amount due from CNY 7.94 trillion in 2021 to an expected CNY 200 billion after 2028 [7]. - The credit situation in the real estate sector has improved, with a notable reduction in default issues since 2025, although tail risks still need to be monitored [7]. Group 3: Trends in Bond Types and Financing Tools - A total of 256 real estate bonds have been issued this year, with medium-term notes and private placements being the most active types [4][6]. - Innovative financing tools such as asset-backed securities (ABS), rental housing REITs, and green bonds are expected to become new growth points in the future [6]. - The use of credit enhancement measures by private enterprises has become a notable trend, reflecting a shift towards more secure financing options [6].