Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market is still warm, with strong support from the tight supply of copper mines and the strength of LME spot. It is expected that the price will fluctuate and rise in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong, supported by positive factors such as the low overseas inventory and the improvement of the domestic spot market [4]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to run strongly in the short term due to the strong cost - side price and continuous supply - side disturbances [7][8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector, influenced by the current industrial situation and market sentiment [9][10]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector sentiment, with potential for a significant catch - up increase compared to copper and aluminum [11][12]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [14][16]. - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [17]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a bullish trend, but the rapid rise increases the risk of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [19][21]. - The alumina price is expected to be mainly observed in the short term, and it is advisable to wait for an opportunity to short the near - month contracts at high prices [23][24]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillating trend in the short term due to stable cost support, low supply from steel mills, and continuous inventory reduction [26][27]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M closed up 2.07% to $12,965 per ton on Friday, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,220 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 138,975 tons, while the SHFE inventory increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The policy is expected to remain in a loose direction, and the domestic manufacturing industry is improving. The supply of copper mines is tight, so the copper price is expected to fluctuate and rise in the short term. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 100,000 - 104,500 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - $13,250 per ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price rose after a decline, with the LME aluminum closing up 1.98% to $3,149 per ton on Friday, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closing at 24,465 yuan per ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted - contract positions increased, and inventory changes varied [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supported by macro - sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,100 - 24,800 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,100 - $3,180 per ton [4][5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract AD2603 closed up 1.77% to 22,985 yuan per ton on Friday. The weighted - contract positions increased, and the inventory situation changed [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With strong cost - side prices and continuous supply - side disturbances, the price is expected to run strongly in the short term [7][8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.14% to 17,381 yuan per ton last Friday, and the LME lead 3S rose to $2,040 per ton. Various price and inventory data are provided [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous metal sector sentiment, affected by the industrial situation and market sentiment [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.01% to 24,007 yuan per ton last Friday, and the LME zinc 3S fell to $3,152.5 per ton. Multiple price and inventory indicators are given [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry situation has not improved significantly, but it has a large potential for a catch - up increase compared to copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sector sentiment [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 352,540 yuan per ton on Friday, up 0.83%. The supply and demand situation and inventory changes are described [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [14][16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 139,090 yuan per ton on January 10, up 1.94%. Spot prices, cost - side prices, and nickel - iron prices are reported [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel market has a large surplus pressure, but the domestic loose liquidity provides support. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On January 9, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index rose, and prices of different grades and contracts changed. The price of imported lithium concentrate also increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bullish trend continues, but the rapid rise increases the correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 139,500 - 148,500 yuan per ton [20][21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 9, the alumina index fell 0.65% to 2,830 yuan per ton. There were changes in positions, basis, and inventory. The ore prices decreased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina market faces multiple difficulties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short the near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,860 yuan per ton on Friday, up 1.35%. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the nickel price and market supply - demand, the price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillating trend in the short term [27].

2026年1月11日 博弈。 镍铁抬升震荡重心。 盘面博弈印度 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 张再宇 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮资金面对線与不锈钢的关注度提高,本质在于消息面的变化,主要包括:印尼镍矿配额的 2.5 亿 吨目标，以及考虑将伴生矿物，如钻，纳入计价和征税体系，以及违规开采银矿罚款，具体来看: 1 公安期货研 行情观点: 沪镍:产业与二级市场资金对垒,银价宽幅震荡运行、'银的现实基本面确实偏弱,过剩压力与低成本 的湿法投产预期共振,盘面多次增仓试探性地找寻供需再平衡的估值位置,但是二级市场对商品的关注度 明显提高,商品资金流动性充足,印尼消息面的犹动给予了资金轮动的补涨情绪。在产业角度,认为印尼 政策在往年多次的灵活调整,以及一季度配额过渡期的现实,对配额政策仍保有观望情绪,同时,基本面 角度,利润修复增加供应端复产、进口利润回到正区间,以及盘面较镍铁溢价丰厚,套保和套利资金对線 价的弹性形成了约束。在二级市场角度,以长线逢低多的路径思考,更加关注低价矿吸引冶炼投资的"红 利"周期结束,政策在未来或出现周期性转变,同时,印尼多项政策的组合拳共振,进一步明确了印尼希 望挺价 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is influenced by Indonesian policy news, with differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless - steel prices may also show wide - range fluctuations. The key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory has decreased, and attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in sentiment, with the supply - demand situation showing a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high levels [28][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The "rush - to - export" demand may boost off - season demand, and lithium prices are likely to remain strong. It is recommended to use options for hedging [65][66][68]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation, with a potential short - term reaction of negative news being digested after the MPOB report. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [99][100][102]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuations of soybean meal and soybean No.1 mainly depend on the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; otherwise, they will remain in a low - level oscillation [113][114][119]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although there are some negative factors, the price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [133][134][138]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation. Attention should be paid to Brazilian production and export rhythms, Indian production and policies, and domestic import policies [157][159][184]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new drivers, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [185][186][201]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [203][204][206]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [220][221]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Influencing Factors**: News mainly includes the 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target in Indonesia, the consideration of including associated minerals in the pricing and taxation system, and fines for illegal mining [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary - market funds. Stainless - steel prices may follow nickel prices and are also affected by cost and fundamental factors [8][9]. - **Inventory Situation**: Refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories have different trends. For example, on January 9, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,306 tons [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices adjusted downward [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased. The overall industry inventory showed different trends [29][30][33]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended to be shorted at high levels, and polysilicon is expected to be in a certain price range [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices continued to rise [65]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was uncertain. Inventory increased [66][67]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium prices are likely to remain strong, and it is recommended to use options for hedging [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Situation**: Palm oil was supported in the short - term, and soybean oil followed the range - bound operation of the oil and fat sector [99]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil may have a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, and soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][102]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Previous Week's Situation**: U.S. soybean prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices showed different trends [113][114]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Price fluctuations depend on the USDA report [119]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot and futures prices rose in the week of January 9. The basis of the main contract weakened [133][134]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn rose, wheat prices fell, and corn starch inventory increased. The price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [135][136][138]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: International and domestic sugar prices showed different trends. Fund positions and production data in different countries changed [157][158]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation [159][184]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. Domestic cotton prices also fluctuated [185][186]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [201]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: Spot prices were strong and oscillating, and futures prices were oscillating. The basis of the LH2603 contract increased [203][204]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [205][206]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [220]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [221].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年1月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1、本周双胶纸市场横盘运行。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为4725元/吨，环比持平，本周趋势延续稳定；70g 木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4454元/吨，环比持平，与上周趋势相比由涨转稳。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初个别纸企报盘上 调，出货基本稳定，经销商谨慎拿货为主，备货意愿偏低；第二，江西地区个别停机产线复产，市场供应压力增加；第三，出版订单继续提 货，下游印厂社会面接单有限，采买热情欠佳，整体交投偏刚需；第四，上游木浆价格部分上涨，成本面对双胶纸支撑 ...

Report's Investment Ratings for Different Metals - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, indicating the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and influencing factors. It provides investment suggestions based on these analyses, such as holding certain option strategies, participating in hedging, and being cautious in trading [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper market reduced positions and fluctuated, recovering intraday losses. The impact of the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs on copper is limited. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum increased positions and rose. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed. The short - term rise is driven by funds, deviating from the fundamentals. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum plants can consider selling hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and the spot price is under pressure [3] Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is light. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of pre - consuming, and the demand may not be weak in the off - season. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - The SMM 1 aluminum has a discount to the near - month contract. The import window is open, and the overseas surplus can be transmitted to the domestic market. The recycled aluminum production has increased after profit repair. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with active trading. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has improved. The stainless steel inventory has decreased. The market is currently dominated by policy sentiment [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased positions and traded around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot price has support at the integer - level high. The option strategy of selling call options at 350,000 yuan can be held until maturity [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream's demand has slightly improved. The price center is slowly rising, and the mine - end price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and closed slightly down. The supply side has production cuts, and the demand side has reduced demand. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after the limit - down. The market's expectation for capacity clearance has changed. The supply is still high, and the price is seeking cost support [11]

1. Report Investment Ratings for Different Chemical Products - **Positive Outlook (Red Stars)**: Methanol, Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Propylene are rated ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and good investment opportunities; Urea, PVC, and Soda Ash are rated ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - **Negative Outlook (Green Stars)**: There are no products with a green - star rating in the report. - **Balanced Outlook (White Stars)**: Polypropylene, Styrene, Short - fiber, Glass, and Caustic Soda are rated ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term trend is balanced, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: The chemical market shows a mixed performance. Some products are affected by supply - demand changes, cost factors, and geopolitical risks. Different products have different trends in price, production, and inventory [2][3][5]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some products, such as far - month pure benzene, consider long - short spreads; for soda ash, use a right - side short - selling strategy; hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy; for glass, look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [3][8]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - **Propylene**: The main futures contract rose slightly. Production enterprises had smooth sales, and multiple plants planned to reduce production or undergo maintenance, boosting market sentiment [2]. - **Polyethylene**: Market sentiment was strong, downstream factories replenished stocks, and production enterprises raised factory prices. The market price trended upward, and low - price transactions were acceptable [2]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply was tight, and some petrochemical factory prices were high, leading to a price - support intention. However, downstream buyers were resistant to high prices, and trading volume decreased [2]. 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The spot price in East China was stable. Hydro - benzene production increased, imports were sufficient, and port inventory in Jiangsu continued to accumulate. The industry profit improved, and downstream capacity utilization was expected to rise. In the short - term, it will continue to fluctuate, and consider long - short spreads for far - month contracts [3]. - **Styrene**: The main futures contract rose but was pressured by the semi - annual line. Production enterprises had stable sales, inventory decreased, but the accumulation of raw material pure benzene suppressed the price rebound [3]. 3.3 Polyester - **PX and PTA**: Prices declined. The terminal market weakened, polyester cash flow was low, and production started to decline. The overnight oil price increase slightly boosted the market. PX was expected to be strong in the medium - term, and PTA's processing margin moderately recovered [5]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New domestic plants were about to start production, and overseas plants shut down due to low profitability. Polyester production was expected to decrease, port inventory continued to accumulate, and it will fluctuate at a low level around the Spring Festival. Supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but it will face long - term pressure [5]. - **Short - fiber**: Enterprises had low inventory, but downstream orders were weak. Profits were thin, and downstream factories would gradually take holidays after mid - January. The price fluctuated with raw materials, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [5]. - **Bottle chips**: Demand weakened, downstream buyers restocked as needed, the spot price was slightly lower, and the price followed raw materials. Before the Spring Festival, production and demand will decline, and over - capacity will be a long - term pressure [5]. 3.4 Coal Chemicals - **Methanol**: The trading floor saw intensified long - short battles. Overseas plant operation rates were low, and future imports were expected to decrease significantly. However, high coastal inventory and downstream negative feedback may suppress the market [6]. - **Urea**: The price slightly declined, and enterprise inventory stopped falling and started to rise. Gas - based plants were shut down for maintenance, commercial reserves increased at low prices, and industrial demand was mainly for immediate use. The daily output was expected to increase, but the decline space was limited due to the upcoming spring agricultural demand [6]. 3.5 Chlor - Alkali - **PVC**: The price declined. Maintenance decreased, production increased, downstream demand was weak, and exports were mainly from ethylene - based enterprises. The calcium carbide price increase provided cost support, and the price center is expected to rise in 2026 [7]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuated. The chlorine market was good, integrated profits were acceptable, and production was at a high level. Downstream alumina production was high, but the industry was generally in the red. Liquid caustic soda inventory continued to accumulate, and the alumina production cut expectation will suppress the price rebound [7]. 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - **Soda Ash**: The price was weakly fluctuating. Supply pressure was high as production increased. Recent trading was mainly by futures - cash arbitrageurs, and downstream buying sentiment was low. Float and photovoltaic glass industries continued to cut capacity, and soda ash inventory continued to accumulate, facing oversupply. Consider short - selling on the right - side and hold the long - glass short - soda ash Q5 strategy [8]. - **Glass**: The price fell from a high level. The spot market continued to destock, and prices varied by region. All three fuel - based production lines were in the red, and production capacity was compressed to 150,000 tons. Processing orders were weak, and demand was insufficient. After the capacity drops below 150,000 tons, supply - demand will reach a weak balance, and look for long - entry opportunities after a pull - back [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is concerned about the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's reciprocal tariffs, but the impact on copper is limited. The focus is on the US December non - farm employment indicators at night [2]. - Short - term funds are boosting Shanghai Aluminum to hit a record high, with a certain deviation from the fundamentals. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and its spot price is under pressure [3]. - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the demand may be "not off - season in the off - season" in 2026. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure at 17,800 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The stainless steel market is affected by policies, and the social inventory is accelerating to be depleted. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. - Shanghai Tin is in a position of increasing positions and gaming at the 350,000 - yuan mark. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level, with strong resilience. The price center is slowly and continuously rising [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in the northwest [10]. - Polysilicon prices are seeking cost support due to policy changes, and participation should be cautious [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai Copper reduced positions and oscillated, recovering losses during the session. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum increased positions and rose. Spot discounts in some regions narrowed, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and it is in significant surplus. The alumina spot price is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3]. Aluminum - SMM 1 aluminum has a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The import window is still open. The recycled aluminum profit has recovered, and the refined - scrap price difference is 150 yuan/ton. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is still light. SMM zinc inventory has risen to 118,500 tons. In 2026, the consumption is expected to be moderately advanced. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel oscillated with active trading. The upstream price has started to rebound. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. Tin - Shanghai Tin increased positions and played around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot tin price dropped to 349,750 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,390 yuan to the delivery month. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream has a mentality of hoarding goods, and the downstream has a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The price center is slowly rising, and the market inventory has increased in the first week [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and went high, closing slightly down. There is a technical rebound, and there is news of enterprise production cuts. The supply side shows reduced production by large factories in Xinjiang, and low - level operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The demand side has a decrease in raw material demand from polysilicon and organic silicon. It is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after hitting the daily limit yesterday, with continuous capital outflows. The market expectation has changed, and the price is seeking cost support. Participation should be cautious [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides analyses and operation suggestions for various soft commodities, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for most commodities due to different market conditions such as supply - demand changes, production progress, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to correct, with the position of the main contract decreasing. Spot sales were average, and the basis was stable. As of the end of December, the national commercial cotton inventory was 578.47 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 110.11 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.96 million tons. Sales progress was fast, providing strong support to the market. Currently in the off - season, demand was generally stable. As of December 25th, the cumulative processed lint cotton was 669.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 75.8 million tons. The policy of reducing the planting area in Xinjiang was implemented, but the reduction data was lower than market expectations. Spinning mills still had demand for raw materials, with low finished - product inventories, but downstream orders were average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the short - term focus was on the production expectation difference in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 25/26 sugar - making season, India's production progress was fast, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, while Thailand's production progress was slow and the output was lower than expected. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's production and sales both decreased. In December, the single - month sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons; sugar sales were 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons; the industrial inventory was 1.0571 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62,100 tons. The sales volume decreased significantly due to strong bearish sentiment in the market. Although there was a strong expectation of increased production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the production progress was slow. If the output cannot increase later, the futures price will repair upwards. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price continued to rebound. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable, and demand increased. In Shaanxi, the asking price of some soft semi - commercial fruit from farmers decreased, and farmers' willingness to sell increased. Cold - storage merchants in the origin mainly packed their own goods for the market and purchased less from farmers. As merchants started to stock up for the Spring Festival, the cold - storage trading volume increased. As of January 8th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 6.7337 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03%. The national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 287,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.37%. The market's trading logic shifted to demand. This year's apple quality was poor, but the purchase price was high, and the sentiment of hoarding among traders and farmers was strong, which may affect the destocking speed. It is advisable to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all decreased. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased, the synthetic rubber spot price was stable, the overseas butadiene port price was stable, and the raw material market price in Thailand varied. Globally, the natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, with China's Yunnan production area fully stopped, Hainan about to fully stop, and Vietnam gradually stopping later. This week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, with the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical still under maintenance, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire factories continued to decline, the finished - product inventory of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises decreased, while that of semi - steel tires continued to rise. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 548,300 tons, with both the bonded area and general trade inventory increasing; the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased to 15,100 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 41,300 tons. In general, demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic supply is increasing, rubber inventory is increasing, cost support is stable, and market sentiment is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see [5] Pulp - Today, the pulp price increased slightly. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward space may be restricted. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon was 5,500 yuan/ton, and that of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5,400 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish was 4,750 yuan/ton. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.007 billion tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%, showing a continuous inventory - accumulation trend. The narrowing price difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp provided some support to coniferous pulp. Recently, the overseas quotes of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp have both increased. Paper mills mainly purchase pulp for rigid demand, and the price of base paper has relatively weak follow - up increases. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [6] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. In the spot market, the mainstream price was stable. In terms of supply, the overseas quote decreased, and the domestic spot price remained weak, with the short - term arrival volume expected to decrease. In terms of demand, as of January 2nd, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports across the country was 56,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09%. Demand entered the off - season, and the recent outbound volume decreased. As of January 2nd, the total log inventory at ports across the country was 2.67 billion cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.12%. The total national log inventory was relatively low, with relatively low inventory pressure. Overall, the low inventory provided some support to the price. It is advisable to wait and see [7]

2026 年 1 月 9 日 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,706.0 | -8.98% | 27,173 | | 20,008 | -1,803 | 1.36 | | 2.00 | | | EC2604 | 1,163.3 | -4.76% | 16,470 | | 27,774 | 1,435 | 0.59 | | 0.84 | | | | 本期 | | | 2026/1/5 | | 单位 | | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS：欧洲航线 | | 1,795.83 | | | | 点 | | 3.1% | | | 运价 | SCFIS：美西航线 | | 1,250.12 | | | | 点 | | -3.9% | | | 指数 | | 本期 | | | 2025/12/26 | | 单位 | | 双 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Valuation is high, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Market sentiment is causing disturbances, and the futures prices are experiencing wide fluctuations [2][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between long and short positions on the futures market, and investors should be vigilant about position risks [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal: Events are fermenting, and the prices are fluctuating at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price is fluctuating repeatedly [2][20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's closing price was 813 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.81%. The previous day's position was 636,674 lots, a decrease of 29,907 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a weak bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For RB2605, the previous day's closing price was 3,168 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.44%. For HC2605, it was 3,317 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.48%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, total inventory, and apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coil. There were also data on steel social inventory, production of key steel enterprises, and relevant policies and import data [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in spot prices, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13][14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 8, there were price changes in different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions. In December 2025, Brazil's manganese ore exports decreased significantly [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For JM2605, the previous day's closing price was 1,190 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.2%. For J2605, it was 1,765 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.5%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price differences [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 7, there were CCI metallurgical coal index data. This week, the daily production of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines increased, and there were changes in the number of shutdown and复产 mines [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price differences of different log futures contracts. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, slightly higher than November, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [23].