交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 2、基差：现货4695，09合约基差-11，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.7天，环比减少0.12天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 MEG 每日观点 MEG： PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强，个别聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出货。8月主 港货在09-10～15有成交，8月底个别宁波货在09平水附近商谈，价格商谈区间在4680~4715附近。9月中上主港在09+0~5有成交。 今日主流现货基差在09-12。中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 市场预期乐观，焦煤偏强震荡 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 现货氛围良好，焦炭高位运行 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Wood, 20 - rubber, Butadiene rubber: Bullish with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Natural rubber: No clear short - term trend, with poor market operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] Core Views - The prices of various commodities show different trends. For some commodities, supply and demand, inventory, and weather conditions are key factors affecting prices. Specific trading strategies vary according to different commodity conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose, and the spot sales basis was stable with average trading. After continuous decline, prices stabilized. Low inventory supported prices, but weak downstream orders dragged them down. In July, inventory digestion was good, and it's expected to improve in August. There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. It's recommended to wait and see and maintain a positive spread strategy for the 9 - 11 contract [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated last week. Brazilian production data in mid - July was neutral to bearish. Production speeded up due to less rainfall in July, but the overall progress was still slow, and some institutions lowered the annual production forecast. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. Sales were fast, inventory was down year - on - year, and import volume in June increased year - on - year but the cumulative import volume was still low. The market focus shifted to imports and next season's production estimate, and the 25/26 season's production is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated upward. Market demand was poor, cold - storage shipment was slow, and spot prices were weak. Cold - storage remaining inventory was low, and storage merchants were eager to sell. Early - maturing apples had high prices but average quality. As of August 7, national cold - storage inventory was 512,000 tons, down 48.1% year - on - year. The market focus shifted to new - season production estimate, and there are differences in production forecasts [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, Synthetic rubber - RU, NR, and BR prices moved down. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices rose, while the external butadiene port price fell. Global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates changed. Domestic tire operating rates declined slowly, and terminal demand was weak. Rubber inventories decreased, market sentiment improved, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates. The strategy is to wait and see for RU and be bullish for NR and BR [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose. Spot prices in Shandong and other regions were stable or increased. As of August 7, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports decreased. In July, domestic pulp imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Currently, port inventory is high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. In August, demand may be boosted. It's recommended to wait and see or try to go long at low prices [6] Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices at Taicang Port increased. Last week, the arrival volume increased, but due to rising external prices and small domestic price increases, importers faced pressure, and domestic supply may remain low. In the off - season, the daily outbound volume at the port was good. As of August 8, national port log inventory decreased. With improving supply - demand and low inventory, spot prices are expected to rebound, and futures prices are expected to rise. A bullish strategy is recommended [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The oil market has a continuous inventory build - up pressure, and the balance sheet shows that the supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is about twice that of the first three quarters. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money options on SC2510 when the price drops [2]. - The decline in crude oil leads to a continued weakness in fuel - related futures. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure in the short term, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread is expected to continue to narrow [3]. - The asphalt supply pressure is currently limited, demand has room for recovery, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong in the near term [4]. - The LPG price has stabilized slightly. The refinery gas price has room for further decline. The market is in a low - level oscillation after initially pricing in the negative expectations [5]. Summaries by Related Categories Crude Oil - Since the third quarter, global oil inventories have increased by 1.1%, similar to the first and second quarters. The supply - demand surplus in the fourth quarter is expected to double compared to the previous three quarters. After the geopolitical risk concerns eased last week, the market focused on the supply - demand bearish expectations. Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting this Friday, and a double - buy strategy for out - of - the - money options on SC2510 is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The decline in crude oil causes the fuel - related futures to remain weak. In August, the Asian fuel oil market has abundant arrivals and weak ship - bunkering demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory remains high, and the diesel crack spread has dropped by $7 per barrel since mid - July. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, and the high - low sulfur fuel oil price spread is expected to narrow [3]. Asphalt - Today, oil product futures generally declined, with BU having the smallest decline. The August production plan decreased significantly compared to July, but some refineries exceeded the production plan. The demand recovery in South China is delayed, and the northern demand is weak. The refinery shipments are flat compared to last week, with the cumulative year - on - year increase rising by 1 percentage point. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly but remains at a low level in recent years. The supply pressure is limited, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU crack spread is expected to be strong [4]. LPG - The overseas LPG export market remains loose, but the increase in East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The import volume increased at the beginning of August, and the refinery gas price has room for further decline. The chemical profit margin and the ratio to naphtha are at a good level. After the high - operating - rate period, the sustainability of the good chemical profit margin should be monitored. The futures - spot spread has reached a high level, and the market is in a low - level oscillation after initially pricing in the negative expectations [5]

| | | 产商开工率下降；电子行业进入淡季，叠加美国计划对半导体征收关税。近期价格处于高位，抑制下游企 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业补库意愿，持货商亦有惜售情绪。现货升水维持至400元/吨，国内库存持稳。技术面，持仓低位，多空 交投谨慎，区间调整。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作，参考26.5-27.2。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 沪锡产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 268380 | 600 9月-10月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -230 | 60 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33605 | -230 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 24278 | -117 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手 ...

Core Insights - The futures investment market is attracting many investors due to its high-risk and high-reward characteristics [1] - A significant event occurred on August 11, 2025, when lithium carbonate futures hit the limit up due to the suspension of operations at a mine owned by CATL, leading to bullish sentiments in the market [1] Summary of Key Applications - **Sina Finance APP**: Offers a deep integration of news and market data, providing real-time quotes for various futures, a financial calendar, and community features for investor interaction [2] - **Wenhua Finance**: Known for its stability and accurate market data, it provides real-time monitoring and advanced technical analysis tools, making it suitable for investors focused on technical analysis [3] - **Boyee Master**: Covers multiple markets including futures, securities, and forex, with rapid and accurate data updates, catering to investors needing 24-hour market access [4] - **Tonghuashun Futures**: A futures trading platform that integrates real-time quotes, trading, and data analysis, offering features beneficial for novice investors [5] - **Oriental Fortune Futures**: Leverages resources from Oriental Fortune Network, providing a user-friendly interface and community features for integrated trading across various financial instruments [6] Conclusion - Each futures trading software has unique features and advantages, and investors should choose based on their investment style and needs, whether it be technical analysis, comprehensive functionality, or rapid trading support [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market may maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term. The bottom of the US soybean futures is supported by the uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas, but the rebound height is suppressed by the good weather for US soybean planting recently and the high - yield of South American soybeans. In the domestic market, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans also affects the soybean meal market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean futures is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but the rebound height is limited by the high - yield expectations of South American and domestic soybeans [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is relatively good recently, and the US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, growth, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in July, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills continued to rise, and the soybean meal market returned to a volatile pattern due to the critical period of US soybean weather and Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still exists, and the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the Sino - US tariff war affect the soybean meal market, which is expected to remain volatile in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in July in China, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous high - yield expectation of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean futures, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 125, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 1043100 tons, a 4.48% increase from last week and a 22.5% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4300, with a basis of 191, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 6455900 tons, a 0.52% increase from last week and a 5.08% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in [10].

| 铅锌日评20250811：区间整理 | 指标 | 2025/8/11 | 近期趋势 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | -0.15% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 16,845.00 | -0.18% | | 元/吨 | -120.00 | 5.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -35.00 | - | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -31.29 | 2.23 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -73.60 | -9.90 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -55.00 | -5.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -5.00 | 20.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | -25.00 | 5.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | 手 | 31,008.00 | -4.39% | 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 成交持 ...

2025年08月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地供需两旺，关注今日MPOB报告 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不足，关注国内后续采购 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕或跟随调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：盘面承压 | 6 | | 白糖：估值有安全边际 | 8 | | 棉花：延续震荡走势 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货存在反弹情绪 | 11 | | 生猪：现货弱势，维持反套 | 12 | | 花生：关注产区天气 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,980 | 0.34% | 8,980 | 0.00% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,400 | -0.07% | 8,382 | -0.21 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of futures trading over stock trading, highlighting the flexibility and potential for profit in futures markets, and promotes a nationwide futures simulation competition to help investors learn and practice trading skills [1][9]. Group 1: Advantages of Futures Trading - Futures allow for "two-way trading," enabling investors to profit from market declines through short selling, unlike stocks which typically only allow profit from rising prices [4]. - The leverage mechanism in futures trading allows investors to control larger positions with less capital, increasing potential returns compared to stock trading where margin financing incurs interest costs [5]. - The limited number of futures contracts (approximately 80) allows for more focused research and investment strategies, making it easier for investors to specialize in specific sectors [5]. - Futures trading offers flexible timing, with night trading sessions available, accommodating those who cannot trade during regular hours [6]. - The existence of a last trading day in futures encourages disciplined trading practices, helping investors to set clear profit and loss targets [6]. - Futures allow for immediate loss mitigation through T+0 trading, enabling investors to react quickly to market changes [6]. - The entry barriers for both stocks and futures are low, with some futures contracts requiring minimal initial investment [6]. - Futures profits can be withdrawn on the same day, providing greater liquidity compared to stocks [6]. Group 2: Learning and Participation Opportunities - The "经·粮杯—全国期货模拟争霸赛" offers a zero-cost opportunity for investors to learn futures trading with a virtual fund of 1 million yuan, allowing for risk-free practice [9][10]. - The competition is designed to be accessible, requiring only one simulated trade to qualify, making it beginner-friendly [10]. - Participants can earn cash prizes based on performance, with monthly awards reaching up to 1,288 yuan, encouraging engagement and learning [10]. - The competition includes educational resources and real-time interaction with experienced traders, enhancing the learning experience [10]. - The event is structured to help participants transition smoothly from simulated to real trading, providing a competitive edge [10][11].