祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251201：区间整理 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/12/1 指标 单位 今值 变动 | | | 16,975.00 0.44% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.80% | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 -60.00 | | | 20.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | 美元/吨 -81.80 1.00 | | | 元/吨 -35.00 -25.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 10.00 | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -20.00 5.00 | | | 手 43,419.00 -24.23% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 47,922.00 -0.43% | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.91 -23.90% | | | 沪锌近月-沪锌连一 元/吨 -40.00 -5.00 | | | 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.92% | 8. ...

| 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 1 | 年 | 日星期一 | 12 | 月 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.89%。 研究报告 铁矿周报 基本面：上周，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.09%，环比减 少 1.10%，同比减少 0.53%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 87.98%，环比减少 0.60%， 同比增加 0.18%；钢厂盈利率 35.06%，环比减少 2.60%，同比减少 16.89%； 日均铁水产量 234.68 万吨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 供需格局未改善，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 铁矿石供需格局表现偏弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，需求 弱势格局未变，易承压矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，海外矿商发运虽有所回落，但仍是 年内高位，海外矿石供应积极，相应的内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current market still has a prominent high - inventory contradiction, and the improvement in terminal demand is limited. Although industry profit repair and the low - valuation pattern provide some bottom support for prices, before the supply - demand fundamentals improve substantially, the market is expected to continue to oscillate. It is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and consider a covered option strategy [8][45][47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Overview - In November 2025, the price of the glass futures main contract FG2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton, a monthly change of - 2.77%, closing at 1053 yuan/ton. The national average price of the float glass market was 1135 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton, or 7.35% [5][6]. - The inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. b. Spot Price Trend - In November, the domestic float glass market price generally declined. At the beginning of the month, the market sentiment improved due to the concentrated shutdown of 4 coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area, but then weakened due to weak demand and high intermediate inventory. Near the end of the month, the market sentiment improved again due to the shutdown of some production lines in Hubei [9]. - The average prices in all regions decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. For example, in North China, the average price was 1106 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.22% [10]. c. Cost - Profit Analysis - In October, the profits of float glass and upstream soda ash decreased. Soda ash (ammonia - soda process) was in continuous loss, and the average profit of float glass turned negative [15]. - The average profit of float glass with different fuels decreased significantly in October compared with the previous month. For example, the average profit of float glass using coal - gas as fuel was 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 75 yuan/ton [18]. d. Supply - Side Situation - In November, the monthly output and capacity utilization rate of float glass decreased. The estimated output was 4.7634 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.92%. The average daily output was 158,900 tons, a decrease of 250 tons or 1.55% from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate was 79.38%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [23]. - The maintenance loss in November was 1.2374 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,100 tons or 3.01%, and a year - on - year decrease of 22,700 tons or 1.8%. From January to November, the cumulative maintenance loss was 14.0396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9469 million tons or 20.99% [27]. e. Demand - Side Situation - In November, the total consumption of float glass increased month - on - month. The domestic theoretical consumption was 5.0019 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.42% [30]. f. Inventory - Side Situation - In November, the inventory of float glass sample enterprises first increased and then decreased. By the end of the month, the estimated total inventory was 62.623 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1666 million heavy cases, or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.606 million heavy cases, or 27.76% [7][34]. g. Import and Export Data - In October, the import of float glass was 13,800 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons or 25.92% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 193,500 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons or 8.41% compared with the same period last year [40]. - In October, the export of float glass was 81,000 tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons or 32.81% from the previous month. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 857,400 tons, an increase of 445,800 tons or 108.31% compared with the same period last year [43]. h. Market Outlook - In November, the domestic float glass market continued its downward trend, with prices falling to a nearly ten - year low. The core contradiction in the market lies in the deep game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand [45]. - In terms of supply, there is a substantial contraction, but demand remains weak. The profit situation has deteriorated significantly compared with October. In the future, the market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level after a rebound from oversold conditions [45][47].

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：震荡回升 白银：突破新高，观点兑现 02 03 铜：多重利好驱动，价格上涨 铝：21500关口形成支撑，关注年末去库幅度 氧化铝：重心继续下移，基本面仍承压 04 铸造铝合金：订单相对饱满，成本高位，价格存在韧性 05 锌：供应减产，消费持稳，价格下方仍有支撑 06 铅：供应承压，但需求下滑，价格震荡 07 08 锡：供给再出扰动，锡价突破30万关口 铂金：受白银牵动走高 钯金：低幅跟随上涨 Special re ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened significantly higher due to the Federal Reserve's unlimited monetary easing, but the main capital inflow was only 2 billion, indicating weak enthusiasm for chasing prices [1] - The market is expected to continue a trend of oscillating upward, with a recommendation to use stock index futures for intraday trading [1] - There was a notable opportunity to bottom fish in crude oil, with products like asphalt providing a 50% profit opportunity, fuel oil at 40%, and methanol at 12% [1] Group 2 - Investment strategies should focus on being proactive and defensive, acknowledging that market trends involve both rises and falls [3] - The approach to commodity futures is shifting from short positions to medium-term long positions, reflecting a strategy that adapts to market rules and price movements [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will rebound and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 119,000 yuan. The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, facing the pressure of MA20 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary 3.1.1. Shanghai Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +2.66% and an amplitude of 3.21%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors had relatively rapid growth in the first 10 months. Fundamentally, the rainy season in the Philippines has led to a downward trend in nickel ore imports. The RKAB approval in Indonesia and possible changes in export policies are potential variables, but they have limited impact on supply recently. On the smelting side, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Multiple new refined nickel projects in China and Indonesia have been put into operation one after another. Although the shortage of intermediate raw materials and profit losses have led to partial production cuts, the production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure in the pure nickel market is relatively large. On the demand side, the price of nickel iron, the raw material for stainless steel, has decreased, the profits of steel mills have improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to increase, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium has increased. The LME inventory overseas also shows an increasing trend. Technically, the position is stable while the price is adjusting, and the divergence between long and short positions has increased [7]. 3.1.2. Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of +0.61% and an amplitude of 1.71%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 12,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: On the raw material side, the Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the grade of nickel ore is decreasing. The raw material inventory of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening. However, the production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the price of nickel iron has decreased significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased. On the supply side, the production profits of stainless - steel plants have improved. Although the traditional peak demand season has passed, the actual decline in production is expected to be limited, and the supply pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is showing a downward trend. The impact of the previous export squeeze is beginning to appear. The market's purchasing willingness is not high, and the overall inquiry and trading performance are average. Therefore, the social inventory of stainless steel across the country shows a narrow increase. Technically, the position has decreased, the price is under pressure, and the short - selling atmosphere has weakened [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Price Trends - As of November 28, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide was 885 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 117,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,030 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton from last week [13]. 3.2.2. Basis Trends - As of November 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2,420 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 835 yuan/ton [18]. 3.2.3. Price Ratio Trends - As of November 28, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.47, an increase of 0.19 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.06 from last week [25]. 3.2.4. Net Position Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 25,372 lots, a decrease of 1,681 lots from November 24, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 11,728 lots, a decrease of 2,567 lots from November 24, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit**: As of November 21, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 14.9976 million tons, a decrease of 97,300 tons from last week. As of November 28, the production profit of electrowinning nickel was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,550 yuan/ton from last week [37][38]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: In September 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,795 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.25%. In October 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 9,939.649 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.21%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 197,125.63 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.13% [43]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the inventory of Shanghai nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 40,782 tons, an increase of 4,031 tons from last week. The LME nickel inventory was 255,450 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from last week [49][50]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In October 2025, the total production of stainless crude steel was 3.5138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.54%. Among them, the production of 400 - series stainless steel was 659,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.57%; the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%; the production of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.054 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.44%. The import volume of stainless steel was 121,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the export volume was 300,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 48,200 tons. From January to October, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.2457 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,700 tons [54]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of November 28, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 334,940 tons, an increase of 2,477 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 553,664 tons, an increase of 7,131 tons from last week [59]. - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, the production profit of stainless steel was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from last week [64]. - **Related Industries**: From January to October 2025, the newly started area of housing was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%; the completed area of housing was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%; real estate development investment was 735.627 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In October 2025, the production of air conditioners was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.33%; the production of household refrigerators was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.04%; the production of household washing machines was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the production of freezers was 2.153 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 3.359 million units, a year - on - year increase of 36.3%; the sales volume was 3.322 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. The production of excavators was 30,880 units, a year - on - year increase of 13%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,903 units, a year - on - year increase of 5.47%; the production of small tractors was 9,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 25% [68][73].

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 11 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局未好转，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗持续走弱，且钢厂盈利状况不佳，矿石需 求弱势难改。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，海外矿商发运虽有所回落，但依旧是年内高位，海 外矿石供应积极，相应的内矿供应趋稳，矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多因素发酵支撑矿价震荡 走高，但 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term outlook**: - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish and volatile, but the upward space of the main contract is limited [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term consolidation, with long - term supply - demand fundamentals being strong, and there are opportunities to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Weak consolidation in the short term, and the recent rise is considered a rebound, with the option to gradually take profits [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term oscillation, with opportunities to go long after adjustment and stabilization [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish, with short - term prices expected to test the 13700 - 13800 level and long - term opportunities for a gentle rebound after supply pressure eases [1]. - **Red Dates**: Rebound under pressure, with a generally bearish attitude in the long run, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term rebound, with opportunities to short on rebounds for near - month contracts and long on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market data**: As of November 21, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 942500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50100 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 714990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32720 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 115150 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15860 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: South American planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. Domestic supply is abundant, but the sales pressure of oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs remains unresolved, and short - term prices are bullish and volatile [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: As of November 21, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, the rapeseed meal inventory was 10 tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 10 tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The global rapeseed production has recovered this year. The domestic spot market has slow - moving sales and high inventory pressure. The short - term trend is consolidation, and attention should be paid to the impact of soybean meal and Sino - Canadian trade relations [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 667100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13900 tons. The export data from November 1 - 25 was weak, but the decline was slightly reduced compared to the first 20 days [7][8]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the recent rise is a rebound. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November, and it is advisable to consider taking profits [1][8]. Cotton - **Market data**: In the international market, the US new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 1237000 tons have been inspected; India's new cotton daily listing volume is 16000 - 20000 tons; Brazil's 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%. In the domestic market, the new cotton picking is almost completed, with a public inspection volume of over 3.7 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast [9][10][11]. - **Analysis**: The supply - side narrative space is narrowing, and the market is trading around interest - rate cut expectations. Domestic downstream cash flow has improved, but high inventory and hedging pressure limit the upward space [1][12]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The current inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [13]. - **Analysis**: The new - season production is expected to be 500000 - 600000 tons, with an oversupply situation. The short - term trend is a rebound under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress is 65.67%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844620, and the slaughter volume is 11965300 [15][16]. - **Analysis**: The current supply - demand situation is weak. Near - month contracts have short - term rebound opportunities, and attention should be paid to short - selling on rebounds and long - buying on pull - backs for far - month contracts after the release of selling pressure [1][16].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-11-28 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 品种晨会纪要 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区逐渐临近停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...