Core Viewpoint - The tire industry in China is experiencing moderate growth in 2024, with overall revenue increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, while total profits have decreased by 8.5%, indicating a divergence in economic performance among companies in the sector [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Leading companies such as Linglong Tire, Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and General Tire have reported significant profit increases, with net profits growing by 26.01%, 31.42%, 59.74%, and 72.81% respectively [2]. - Conversely, Triangle Tire has seen a substantial profit decrease of 21.03%, attributed to rising raw material costs and a slight decline in sales volume [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The tire industry is characterized by a "high first half, low second half" trend in 2024, with full steel tire production increasing by 2.7% in the first half but declining by 3.2% in the second half, while semi-steel tire production remains in a growth phase [4]. - The industry is facing increased cost pressures due to rising prices of natural and synthetic rubber, which have not been fully offset by price increases in tire sales [3]. Group 3: Industry Disparity - There is a growing disparity in performance among tire companies, with a few leading firms accounting for 70% of the industry's profits despite only representing one-third of sales revenue [5]. - Companies achieving better performance are often those that have made advancements in technology and overseas expansion [6]. Group 4: Export and Global Market - China's tire exports have shown positive growth, with a 4.9% increase in weight, a 10.5% increase in quantity, and a 5.5% increase in export value in 2024 [7]. - The global market is seeing a shift as Chinese tires gain market share in Europe and other regions due to competitive pricing [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The tire industry is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction due to ongoing cost pressures and trade frictions [9]. - The demand for tires is anticipated to be bolstered by the growth of the electric vehicle market, with production and sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 34.4% and 35.5% respectively in 2024 [10]. - Trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. and Mexico, pose significant risks to the industry, prompting companies to enhance their overseas operations to mitigate these challenges [11].

《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布后，中国钢铁和钢铁制品的对美出口关税分别下调至65%和 63%。因90天豁免期内钢铁关税小幅松绑，且中国对美钢材出口总量有限，兰格钢铁研究中心主任王国 清认为，此轮美方关税调整或将支撑钢材间接出口韧性。 4月份，全球制造业指数呈现下滑态势。中国物流与采购联合会发布的4月份全球制造业PMI为49.1%， 比前一个月下降0.5个百分点。摩根大通4月份全球制造业PMI在扩张区间有所回落，为49.8%，比前一 个月回落0.5个百分点。全球制造业的景气度持续偏弱反映全球经济承压。受美国滥施关税扰动，全球 经济下行风险也在逐步加大。中国物流与采购联合会联合国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的4月份中国 制造业采购经理指数显示，4月份中国制造业新出口订单指数为44.7%，比前一个月下降4.3个百分点， 外部贸易环境变化引发的需求收缩倾向继续显现。 中国钢铁企业出口订单指数也继续在收缩区间运行。中物联钢铁物流专业委员会调查的4月份钢铁企业 新出口订单指数为41.0%，比前一个月回落0.1个百分点；中金协&兰格钢铁网调研的钢铁流通企业新出 口订单指数为43.7%，比前一个月回落5.6个百分点。 贸易 ...

此前美国对等关税落地，市场担忧贸易链断裂可能拖累经济增长并推高通胀，风险资产普遍遭遇抛售， 铜价也难逃跌势。随后贸易冲突开始缓和，铜价迎来修复之路，但是可以看到沪铜在4月初跳空缺口处 明显承压，而下方支撑同样较强，期价一直在78000一线附近横盘震荡。最近沪铜为何进退两难？后续 期价有可能打破震荡局面吗？ 关税缓冲期不确定性仍存 最近美国与各国谈判进行中，特别是在中美90天对等关税下调到10%后，市场一度交易关税局势缓和逻 辑，不过部分谈判推进较为缓慢，最近特朗普态度变化，再次提议加征欧盟关税，市场也在担心关税缓 冲期过后贸易摩擦再起的可能性，短期关税缓和的利好已经基本消化，难以对市场情绪构成更多支撑。 另外，为了转移国内债务规模庞大等矛盾，美国对其他国家关税很难恢复至今年以前水平，经济增长前 景担忧无法轻易解除。从最近公布的美国经济数据来看，目前关税扰动所带来的冲击有限，美国4月通 胀表现低于预期，零售销售月率超预期上升0.1%，5月Markit制造业和服务业PMI也均超预期。不过美 国高额债务问题仍然存在，6月还有大量美债集中到期，最近特朗普的减税法案在众议院以微弱优势通 过，市场继续担心美国债台高筑，关 ...

除亚洲的目的地外，输往其他地区的部分主要目的地的整体出口货值录得跌幅，尤其是荷兰(跌38.4%) 和英国(跌24.1%)。另一方面，输往德国(升30.8%)的整体出口货值则录得升幅。 同期，来自大部分主要供应地的进口货值录得升幅，尤其是越南(升107.3%)、英国(升59.5%)、中国台湾 省(升50.6%)和内地(升14.8%)。另一方面，来自韩国(跌21.3%)的进口货值则录得跌幅。 智通财经APP获悉，5月26日，香港政府统计处发表的对外商品贸易统计数字显示，2025年四月份香港 整体出口和进口货值均录得按年升幅，分别上升14.7%和15.8%。继2025年三月份录得18.5%的按年升幅 后，2025年四月份商品整体出口货值为4,345亿元，较2024年同月上升14.7%。同时，继2025年三月份录 得16.6%的按年升幅后，2025年四月份商品进口货值为4,505亿元，较2024年同月上升15.8%。2025年四 月份录得有形贸易逆差160亿元，相等于商品进口货值的3.6%。 2025年首四个月的商品整体出口货值较2024年同期上升11.9%。同时，商品进口货值上升11.4%。2025 年首四个月录得 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a slight increase followed by a decline, with average daily trading volume dropping to 1.18 trillion yuan, reflecting limited short-term policy expectations and uncertainties from external shocks [1] - The market style performance showed that consumption outperformed, followed by cyclical, financial, and growth sectors, with most industries declining [1] - Despite external pressures, domestic economic resilience is expected to support the market, with positive developments in US-China trade negotiations anticipated to bolster the domestic economy in Q2 [1] Group 2 - The ongoing US-EU trade friction is expected to benefit safe-haven assets and companies with high export ratios to Europe, while the potential for increased tariffs on European goods may lead to heightened trade tensions [2] - The technology growth sector, particularly in AI, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, is anticipated to perform well following earnings reports, despite recent pullbacks in self-sufficient sectors [2] - The market may react positively to perceived risks, with potential for increased pressure from the US on the EU, which could ultimately favor safe-haven assets [2]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Recent US-China trade negotiations have made some progress, with both sides agreeing to revert tariffs to pre-Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy levels [1] - However, there are indications that Trump may change his stance and propose new tariffs, which aligns with his historically unpredictable behavior [1][3] - China has been preparing for potential changes in negotiations, given the long-standing nature of US-China trade tensions that began during Trump's first term [1][3] Group 2: Rare Earth Resources - Rare earth resources have become a significant topic in international trade, particularly in the context of US-China relations [5] - These resources are scarce and non-renewable, widely used in advanced technology, and have been dubbed "the mother of new materials" and "industrial vitamins" [6] - Rare earth elements are essential in various applications, including enhancing the strength and lifespan of steel, which is crucial in military applications [8] Group 3: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds the world's largest rare earth reserves, accounting for approximately 25% of global reserves, and produces about 80% of the world's rare earth products [11][12] - The global rare earth market is largely dominated by China, with around 70% of its exports going overseas, indicating a high level of dependency from other countries [12] - China's southern regions contain over 70% of the world's heavy rare earth resources, providing it with a strategic advantage [12] Group 4: US Dependency and Response - The US relies heavily on China for rare earth compounds and metals, with over 70% sourced from China in recent years [14] - The US has not yet mastered the technology for separating heavy rare earths, which is critical for its defense industry [14][16] - In response to this dependency, the Trump administration initiated a domestic rare earth supply chain restructuring plan, but this requires significant investment and time [17][19] Group 5: Strategic Implications - Rare earth resources have become a key bargaining chip for China in trade negotiations, with China showing no willingness to make concessions [21] - China's strong position in rare earth resources gives it confidence in dealing with the unpredictable nature of US trade policies [21]

Macroeconomic Overview - The international political and economic landscape experienced significant turbulence last week, with Trump announcing a 50% tariff on the EU starting in June, leading to a surge in gold prices and a sharp decline in the euro. The EU is preparing a countermeasure worth €95 billion [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Beautiful Act," which is expected to add $2.3 trillion to $3.3 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, raising market concerns about U.S. debt risks [1] - The Federal Reserve's independence was supported by a Supreme Court ruling, but there are notable divisions among officials regarding the path for interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly between Israel and Iran, with Israel's military actions drawing international condemnation. Trump's mediation efforts for a ceasefire in Ukraine faced setbacks [1] - This week, market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's policy minutes, expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, economic data from Europe and the U.S., and OPEC+ production plans, amidst ongoing trade tensions, debt risks, and geopolitical conflicts [1] Dollar Index - Last Friday, the dollar index showed a downward trend, reaching a high of 99.917 and a low of 99.019, closing at 99.078. The market experienced a significant decline, indicating a bearish outlook [2] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 101.70, suggesting a bearish trend in the medium term. Key resistance on the daily chart is at 100.30, with further pressure expected below this level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices generally increased last Friday, peaking at 3365.76 and closing at 3359.92. The price action indicates a bullish trend, supported by previous resistance levels [4] - An analysis of multiple timeframes shows that gold is supported at the 3160 level on the weekly chart, with a bullish outlook unless this support is broken. Daily support is at 3280, and short-term support is at 3323-3324 [5][6] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an overall upward trend last Friday, with a low of 1.1277 and a high of 1.1375, closing at 1.1364. The market demonstrated strong bullish momentum, particularly after breaking through key resistance levels [8] - Multi-timeframe analysis indicates long-term bullish sentiment, with support at 1.0800 on the monthly chart and 1.1090 on the weekly chart. The daily chart shows a recent upward breakout, maintaining bullish expectations [8]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】出口反弹，内需分化 上周高频数据显示，消费方面冷热不均，其中汽车销售仍较强。 投资方面，基建投资加速发力，地产销售 边际改善但土地市场低迷。进出口加速反弹，海外需求韧性犹存，关税缓和期港口数据和出口运价快速回 升，或因前期积压库存集中出货和抢出口。生产呈现行业分化的趋势，光伏生产指数回升，钢铁、石化等 部分行业开工率回落。库存方面，煤炭库存高位回落，钢材加速去库。物价表现一般， CPI 和 PPI 相关 高频指标大多下行。流动性方面，美元指数大幅回落，人民币持续升值。 风险提示： 贸易局势不确定性 。 >>以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已经发布的研究报告 ： 出口反弹，内需分化 ，具体分析内容（包括风险提示等） 请详见完 整版报告。 【 海外策略】贸易摩擦缓和期资产价格如何走 2018-19 年中美贸易摩擦共历时近两年，期间经历四次缓和窗口期。 具体包括： 2018 年 5 月华盛顿 会谈后双方发布联合声明、 2018 年 12 月阿根廷 G20 峰会双方元首会晤、 2019 年 6 月大阪 G20 峰 会后的谈判重启、 2019 年 10 月华盛顿 ...

报告导读： ①回顾2018-19年，中美贸易摩擦具有复杂性和长期性，资产价格表现也因 此受到很大影响。②资产价格变化三点规律：一是其中长期走势仍取决于基本面，例如 中国股市走势与国内基本面高度相关。③二是市场对于贸易领域负面信号的反应更加敏 感，对于缓和信号相对平淡。④三是不同资产敏感度不同，股、汇更敏感，债市则影响 较小，黄金配置价值随贸易摩擦持续而上升。 2018-19 年中美贸易摩擦共历时近两年，期间经历四次缓和窗口期。 具体包括： 2018 年 5 月华盛顿 会谈后双方发布联合声明、 2018 年 12 月阿根廷 G20 峰会双方元首会晤、 2019 年 6 月大阪 G20 峰 会后的谈判重启、 2019 年 10 月华盛顿会谈取得实质性进展。整体来看四轮缓和阶段，缓和期的持续时 间长短不一，此外前三次谈判后均因美国单方面撕毁协议等因素而中断缓和期，可见贸易摩擦期间的谈判 和缓和仍具有较大不确定性。 具体来看： 2018 年 5 月：中美发布经贸磋商联合声明，但缓和期持续仅 10 天。 缓和期内美股走势偏 震荡，此后中美股市走势出现分化：在关税落地叠加金融去杠杆的双重压力下， AH 股持续下跌，而美股 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market continues to decline, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all experiencing a cumulative drop of over 2% for the week [3] - Major tech stocks, including Apple, saw significant losses, with Apple dropping over 3% in a single day and nearly 7.6% for the week, marking its largest weekly decline of the year [3] - Trump's announcement of a potential 25% tariff on phones not produced in the U.S. directly impacts Apple, raising concerns about supply chain costs [3] Commodity and Safe-Haven Assets - Traditional industrial metals and gold have surged, with U.S. Steel rising 21% in a single day due to news of a partnership with Japan's Nippon Steel [3] - Gold prices increased significantly, with spot gold rising 4.83% and futures up 5.4% for the week, driven by heightened market risk aversion [3] - The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index soared by 7.7%, while copper prices also rose nearly 4% [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - The Golden Dragon Index for Chinese stocks saw a slight increase of 0.05%, but individual stock performance varied widely [4] - Bilibili rose by 3%, while Miniso plummeted by 17%, and companies like NIO and Xpeng also faced declines, likely due to weak consumer data [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.6% to 4.44% following Trump's comments but rebounded by the end of the week, indicating market uncertainty regarding trade tensions [5] - The 30-year Treasury yield increased by over 9 basis points for the week, suggesting a divergence in institutional views on inflation and economic outlook [5] Currency and Oil Market - The offshore RMB reached a high of 7.17, the strongest since November, attributed to a weaker dollar [5] - Oil prices, including WTI and Brent, ended a streak of gains, falling over 1% due to OPEC+ plans to potentially increase production by 410,000 barrels per day in July [5] Investment Strategy Insights - The current market environment is characterized by volatility due to high valuations in tech stocks and trade tensions, suggesting a need for careful investment strategies [5] - There is a growing interest in traditional manufacturing and safe-haven assets, indicating potential long-term investment opportunities [5]