1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent bond market trends are mainly about compressing various convex points. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields have faced resistance at key levels since June 11. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.65%. In July, the bond market may continue to flatten various spreads, and from August to September, it may further open up space with changes in fundamentals and trade information [2][9][41]. - The money supply is unlikely to drive further decline in bond yields. The bond market has fully priced in the loose money supply since the second quarter, and there is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Instead, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [2][9]. - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Different Types of Bond Bull: Bond Market Seeking Convex Point Returns - Since June 11, the 10 - year Treasury yield has faced resistance at 1.6%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield at around 1.8%. In the nearly one - month trading period, neither could break through downward. The bond market trends from June 11 to July 8 focused on compressing convex points [13]. - **Term Convex Point**: The long - end spreads of interest - rate bonds converged, and the spreads of long - duration credit bonds also compressed significantly. For example, the yields of 20Y and 50Y Treasuries decreased by 6.5bp and 7.5bp respectively, and the spreads of 5Y and 10Y AA + medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 6.4bp and 11.1bp [13]. - **Variety Convex Point**: The overall credit spread compressed to a historical low. Longer - duration and lower - grade varieties performed well, especially Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For instance, the credit spread of AA - rated urban investment bonds compressed by 6.7bp, and for 5Y Tier 2 bonds, the compression order was AA > AA + > AAA - [13]. - **Liquidity Convex Point**: The difference in liquidity premiums between active and non - active bonds weakened, and the spread between new and old bonds compressed significantly. For example, the spread between the active and previous active 10Y China Development Bank bonds compressed from 4.3bp to 1.3bp [14]. 3.2 Money Fails to Drive the Bond Market to Break Through Key Points - Since the second quarter, the money supply has been loose, but the bond market has fully priced it. There is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Due to the rising inter - bank leverage ratio and large - scale lending by major banks, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [27]. - Only Treasuries with a term of over 5 years have positive carry in the current loose money supply environment. If the money price tightens marginally to around 1.6%, the range of Treasuries with positive carry will be compressed to those over 7 years. The central bank's desired market interest rate is within a range, and currently, the money price is close to the lower limit, so monetary easing is unlikely to drive further decline in interest rates [30]. 3.3 Bond Market Breaking Through Key Points Depends on Fundamentals and Trade Frictions - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. - **Fundamental Concerns**: - Real estate sales were relatively resilient in the first half of the year, but there is uncertainty about further recovery in the second half. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has been under downward pressure since the end of June [9]. - Consumption growth ultimately depends on urban residents' per capita disposable income and marginal propensity to consume. The "trade - in" policy has temporarily boosted consumption growth, but further growth requires an increase in residents' income or marginal propensity to consume, which are more complex and need further observation [9]. - Trade frictions may lead to "one - time" pricing in the bond market. At the beginning of this round of trade frictions, the bond market declined by 15bp in two trading days and rose by 5bp in one trading day after the Sino - US negotiation on May 12. US President Trump announced that "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1, and as the grace period approaches, attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade frictions in the bond market [9].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年7月9日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 通胀偏弱，红利指数再度领涨 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.18%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨512.38亿元。期 指均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文表示，关税将于2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会 改变"。 2.中国6月PPI同比下降3.6%，预期降3.2%，前值降3.3%；中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，预期持平，前值降 0.1%。 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.16 | -0.18 | -0.38 | -0.20 | | 成交量（万手） | 8.2089 | 4.2379 | 7.0784 | 16.2388 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -1.2799 | -0.4117 | -2.2217 | -5.5394 | | 持仓量（万手 ...

Economic Overview - The overall economic activity in the US shows slight improvement, with structural differentiation in employment data [1] - The US non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in July [1] - Despite a cooling in US consumption and inflation, the second quarter economic outlook remains optimistic, with moderate growth expected for the year [2] Employment and Labor Market - The US non-farm employment population has exceeded expectations for four consecutive months, indicating resilience in the labor market [2] - The unemployment rate has decreased due to immigration policy impacts, and there are no significant layoffs reported despite tight job supply [2] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has not provided positive indications for a rate cut in July, leading to increased market divergence [2] - Market expectations for a potential Fed rate cut are now focused on September, but trade tensions could influence inflation and affect these expectations [2] Gold Market Dynamics - As of June, China's central bank's gold reserves increased to 2,298.55 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of accumulation, which supports gold prices [3] - The demand for gold from global central banks has decreased overall, but China's continued purchases provide a stabilizing effect on prices [3] - The international gold price is facing resistance around $3,450 per ounce, with short-term fluctuations expected between $3,300 and $3,400 per ounce [3]

标普目前涨0.1%，纳指涨0.18%。 欧元兑美元跌0.03%，暂报1.1704。 美国总统特朗普宣称，可能距离向欧盟发关税信还有两天时间。 批评欧盟起诉美国科技公司苹果和谷歌的做法。 在某些关税信函里，税率为60%、70%。 特朗普自认为，本来可以在贸易问题上更加强硬。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is extending the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, imposing tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, which has led to market volatility and concerns over trade tensions [1][2][3]. Tariff Details - Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Tunisia will face a 25% tariff, South Africa and Bosnia will see a 30% tariff, Indonesia will incur a 32% tariff, Serbia and Bangladesh will face a 35% tariff, Thailand and Cambodia will be subject to a 36% tariff, and Laos and Myanmar will face tariffs as high as 40% [2]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement of new tariffs, U.S. markets experienced a "double hit" with declines in both stocks and bonds. The Dow Jones fell by 0.94%, the S&P 500 dropped by 0.79%, and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.91% on July 7 [3][4]. Economic Impact - The tariffs are expected to increase consumer prices in the U.S., particularly affecting imports from Japan and South Korea, which include automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. The total value of goods exported to the U.S. from Japan and South Korea was $280 billion last year [3]. Investor Sentiment - Concerns over escalating trade tensions are leading to fears of a repeat of earlier market turmoil, with investors worried about the potential for increased inflation and delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Currency and Debt Market - The U.S. dollar saw a slight rebound amid concerns over emerging market currencies, while U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, indicating increased attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term rebound in the dollar, long-term prospects remain uncertain due to ongoing trade tensions and concerns over U.S. economic sustainability, which could lead to a shift in investment away from the dollar [6][7].

尽管克林拜尔没有具体说明欧盟可能采取哪些报复措施，但他的表态延续了欧盟一贯立场：在谈判破裂 的情况下，欧盟将坚决捍卫其经济利益。据央视新闻此前报道，美国总统特朗普曾威胁称，如果7月9日 前美欧贸易谈判没有取得突破，他将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 但目前，谈判期限已被推迟至8月初。据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自 日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。这一决定立即引发了受影响国家的回 应，从寻求对话到强硬反制，国际贸易关系面临新的挑战。 在关键谈判节点临近之际，欧盟与美国的贸易磋商再度紧张升级。 周二，环球网援引路透社报道称，德国副总理兼财政部长拉尔斯·克林拜尔8日称，如果不能与美国达成 公平的贸易协议，欧盟准备采取反制措施。 据媒体报道，克林拜尔在向德国议会发表讲话时表示： 我们希望与美国达成协议，但我也要明确表示，这项协议必须是公平的。如果无法达成，我 们就必须采取反制手段来保护我们的经济。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's decision to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese exports to the U.S., affecting key industries such as automobiles and semiconductors, which has led to significant political backlash in Japan [3][5] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, indicating that this action undermines trade rules and has prompted Japan to seek negotiations to prevent escalation [3][5] - The tariffs are seen as a strategic move by Trump to pressure Japan into concessions, but it overlooks Japan's significant role in the global economy and its potential countermeasures [5][7] Group 2 - Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, giving it substantial leverage; a large-scale sell-off could destabilize U.S. financial markets and impact interest rates [7][9] - Japan's position in the rare earth supply chain is critical, as it could collaborate with China to restrict exports, severely impacting U.S. high-tech industries reliant on these materials [9][11] - Japan is diversifying its investments away from the U.S. and strengthening ties with ASEAN and India, indicating a shift in its economic strategy that could affect U.S. job markets and economic recovery [11][13] Group 3 - The trade conflict highlights the complexities of global economic interdependence and the potential for mutual harm, as tariffs could increase costs for U.S. consumers and businesses [7][15] - Trump's approach reflects a misunderstanding of the current geopolitical landscape, where Japan is not as easily pressured as other nations, leading to a potential long-term trade standoff [13][15] - Japan's response serves as a model for other countries facing similar pressures, emphasizing the importance of maintaining strategic autonomy and global partnerships [15]

Group 1 - The core issue is the decline in China-Russia trade, with a 6.6% year-on-year decrease in early 2025, particularly in the automotive and energy sectors [1] - Russia has implemented a flexible export tax policy linked to the ruble, raising the export tax on fertilizers to 10%, which has not been communicated to China, indicating a shift in their trade relationship [3] - In Q1 2025, China imported 24.31 million tons of crude oil from Russia, a 14.7% year-on-year decrease, reflecting a change in strategic attitudes rather than just procurement issues [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is facing challenges as Russia has closed its market to Chinese electric vehicles, forcing Chinese companies to pivot to Central Asian markets like Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan [5] - In April 2025, China imported 8.07 million tons of crude oil from Russia, accounting for 16.8% of total imports that month, a 12.9% year-on-year decrease, driven by both energy efficiency initiatives and Russia's export policy changes [5] - China is no longer offering concessions on coal imports from Russia, as domestic coal production is significant, and lowering tariffs could harm local coal companies [5] Group 3 - Despite visible cooperation in agriculture and technology, trade dynamics are shifting, with a 6.8% decline in China-Russia trade in Q1 2025, indicating a potential reduction in Russia's reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The changing trade relationship is characterized as a negotiation for rebalancing interests, with China needing to stabilize domestic demand and export routes while Russia aims to control inflation and stabilize the ruble through export policies [9] - The current state of affairs suggests a need for a long-term negotiation-based partnership between China and Russia, moving beyond previous informal agreements [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The current thermal coal market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" phase, with short-term price stabilization supported by summer peak demand, but limited upside potential due to high inventory levels and regulatory easing [4][10] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing amid a rebound in total inventory, driven by downstream steel companies replenishing stocks of cost-effective coal types [4][24] - The equity market is primarily bullish, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as evidenced by a 1.60% weekly increase in the coal sector index [5][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the broader indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3497.22 points [5][9] - The average trading volume was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a daily financing amount fluctuating around 110 billion yuan [5] Thermal Coal - Upstream port inventories continue to decline, with daily coal consumption at power plants increasing due to rising temperatures [9][17] - The average daily coal inventory at power plants is approximately 35.82 million tons, with a daily consumption of 2.078 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [18] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental regulations [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is 84.4%, indicating a slight decrease in production capacity [24] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim has increased, with average daily shipping prices showing a downward trend [33][34] Industry News - In the first five months of 2025, Ningxia's coal production decreased by 3.0%, while sales increased by 6.1% [36] - The Indian government extended the import restrictions on low-ash metallurgical coke for an additional six months [37]

Market Overview - The three major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext index increasing by nearly 2.4% and total trading volume reaching 1.47 trillion yuan, indicating a gradual increase in risk appetite and liquidity in the domestic market [1] - The market is expected to experience a structural trend, with indices fluctuating while the central tendency moves upward, as corporate earnings still face pressure despite signs of economic recovery [1] Economic Indicators - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,174 billion, up by $32.2 billion from the end of May, remaining stable above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months [2] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a notice to promote the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [2][3] - The policy aims to address the challenges in charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles, with expectations for accelerated construction from 2025 to 2027, benefiting the upstream and downstream of the industry chain [3] Trade Relations - The U.S. government announced a delay in tariff negotiations, with President Trump set to sign an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025 [3] - This trade policy reflects the Trump administration's strategy of using pressure to facilitate negotiations, which may increase global market volatility in the short term [3] Market Performance - On July 8, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index close at 3,497.48 points, up 0.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 10,588.39 points [4] - Among the sectors, utilities and banking experienced declines, while telecommunications, power equipment, and electronics led the gains [4] Capital Flow - The market's trading volume was 1,474.798 billion yuan, showing an increase from the previous trading day, with the margin financing balance also rising to 1,859.38 billion yuan [5]