Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 0 billion, 228.2 billion, and 166 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 0 billion, 137.4 billion, and 130 billion [1] - Non-financial credit bonds totaled an issuance scale of 243.1 billion, with a net financing amount of 50.1 billion. One new convertible bond was issued, expected to raise 300 million [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates rose last week, influenced by factors such as profit-taking sentiment among institutions, the effectiveness ruling on US tariffs, and the increase in certificate of deposit rates [2] Liquidity Tracking - The repo market maintained a loose funding environment last week, with a slight increase in certificate of deposit rates. The central bank announced a net withdrawal of 200 billion through reverse repos in May, without engaging in government bond transactions [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Relevant departments announced that several major financial policies will be released during the Lujiazui Financial Forum. In April, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises increased alongside rising profit margins, while inventory levels decreased. The manufacturing PMI for May recorded 49.5, in line with expectations [4] Overseas Market - A US court ruled that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs was "overreaching," and the Trump administration has appealed. The S&P 500 rose by 1.9% over the week, while the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell by 10 basis points [5] Equity Market - The A-share market continued to favor small-cap stocks last week. Specifically, the Wind All A index fell by 0.83%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.48%, and the CSI 2000 index rose by 1.09%. A-share trading volume shrank, with an average daily turnover of 1.09 trillion, a decrease of 93.062 billion week-on-week. As of May 29, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 1,797.562 billion, slightly increasing by 722 million compared to May 22 [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Recent increases in certificate of deposit rates may be related to the upcoming maturity of certificates in June. The month will also see government bond issuances and the maturity of various monetary policy tools, leading to concentrated funding demands, which may cause fluctuations in interbank market liquidity. However, typically, funding demands tend to ease at the beginning of the month. The recent adjustments in interest rate bonds due to institutional behavior have created opportunities that warrant attention, emphasizing the value of coupon assets. In the convertible bond sector, the market is entering a phase where fundamentals, policies, and US-China relations are relatively stable, suggesting that the pricing weight of individual bonds based on industry logic may continue to increase. Given the ongoing supply-demand imbalance for convertible bonds this year, and the fact that the average conversion premium across multiple parity ranges remains below the spring market levels, the valuation of convertible bonds is relatively supported, and their attractiveness for allocation has begun to recover since last week [7]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell by 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds decreased across the board, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 1.25 basis points to 1.9315%, the 10-year bond yield up by 0.1 basis points to 1.676%, and the 3-year bond yield increasing by 1 basis point to 1.49% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and winning amount [2] - A total of 830 billion yuan in reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market showed a balanced and slightly loose funding condition, with overnight weighted rates around 1.40% and non-bank institutions borrowing at approximately 1.55% [2] Operational Suggestions - Concerns over certificate of deposit supply and funding conditions may lead to slight weakness in the bond market [3] - June is a critical month for exports, with high-frequency data indicating downward pressure but overall resilience, supporting industrial production [3] - Short-term bond yields are expected to face resistance near previous lows, while long-term yields may rise due to potential pressures from external demand [3] - The forecast for bond market yields suggests a range for the 10-year bond yield between 1.6% and 1.75%, and for the 30-year bond yield between 1.8% and 1.95% [3] - Investment strategies include range trading and attention to the TS2509 contract for potential opportunities [3]

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 6 月 4 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/6/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 橡胶 | 锰硅 | 烧碱 | 硅铁 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 沥青 | 三十债 | 中证500股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 橡胶 | 十债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 生猪 | 二债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 鸡蛋 | 五债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 焦煤 | 尿素 | 硅铁 | | | 客服电话： | | 焦炭 | 白糖 | 燃油 | | | | | 红枣 | 纯碱 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 工业硅 | 短纤 | | | | | | 多晶硅 | PTA | | ...

执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市"每调买机"情绪回归 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-03 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：6 月债市高胜率+低赔率的组合延续 当前 10Y 国债收益率在 1.65%至 1.70%附近持续震荡超一月，5 月利率 弱、信用强，存单在 1.70%附近震荡，短期债市多空交织。第一，在关税反复 扰动背景下，央行的主要目标由防空转、稳汇率切换至稳增长，双降以及一揽 子货币政策带动广谱利率下行，债牛环境不变；第二，但从短期来看，6 月资 金面易受扰动，存单大额到期+季末流动性冲击+供给高峰，在此背景下央行 对于资金面的话语权已经提升，我们预计一季度的情形大概率不会重演，资金 ...

Group 1: Policy Impact - The policy measures implemented in May, including the issuance of long-term special government bonds and significant real estate reforms, are expected to show effects in June, but the market's recovery may be gradual [4] - Key factors to watch in June include the speed of the special government bond projects and the volume of second-hand housing transactions in core cities, which will determine the effectiveness of the policy measures [4] Group 2: Capital Market Dynamics - Northbound capital saw a significant inflow of nearly 30 billion in May, primarily driven by technical adjustments related to MSCI, but the strong dollar limits further foreign capital inflow [5] - Domestic stock funds have reached a high position of 87.2%, indicating limited room for further investment, while private equity positions have also risen to 76% [5] - Margin trading remains low at 1.53 trillion, and retail investor sentiment is cautious, leading to a market characterized by stock rotation rather than new capital inflow [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a critical range between 3050 and 3150, with 3050 acting as strong support and 3150 as significant resistance [6] - A breakout above 3150 could open up upward potential, while failure to do so may lead to a retreat back to 3050, with trading volume being a crucial factor [6] Group 4: External Variables - The upcoming FOMC meeting on June 12 is critical, as any indication of limited interest rate cuts could pressure global risk assets, including the A-share market [7] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding new tariffs on electric vehicles, may also impact the performance of the new energy sector [7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - A defensive approach is recommended for June, with a suggested position of around 50%, gradually taking profits above 3150 and buying near 3050 [8] - High-dividend sectors such as electricity (Yangtze Power), coal (China Shenhua), and banking (China Merchants Bank) are seen as safe havens in a volatile market [10] - Growth sectors supported by policy, such as new energy vehicles (CATL, BYD) and semiconductor equipment (SMIC), are also highlighted as areas of potential investment [10]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京6月3日电（刘润榕）人民银行3日开展4545亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与 此前持平；鉴于当日有8300亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼3755亿元。 上周（5月26-30日）央行公开市场净投放流动性6566亿元，资金面整体维持宽松，尽管在企业所得税汇 算清缴、跨月等因素影响下，DR007维持在1.6%上方，但隔夜资金利率持续回落，周五跨月当日R001 反弹至1.57%，仍为去年12月以来跨月的最低水平。 展望6月，中信证券分析称，在4月政治局会议"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"的 要求下预计政府债净融资规模仍将维持在较高水平，但发行缴款压力较5月或将有所减轻，叠加6月财政 支出也可能明显高于财政收入，所以财政因素对资金面的扰动或将边际减弱。不过考虑到银行半年末考 核背景下6月信贷投放规模通常较高，叠加新一轮存款挂牌利率调降落地后银行负债端也可能会面临一 定的压力，资金面或难以实现自发式平衡。预计央行还将通过买断式逆回购、MLF等手段进一步投放 中长期流动性，6月资金面整体仍有望维持供需均衡格局，DR007利率中枢或保持在略高于政策利率的 水平上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in bill rates and emphasizes the importance of large maturing certificates of deposit [5][11] - The central bank's actions include a net injection of 656.6 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a focus on liquidity management [12][33] - The report anticipates significant pressure on the funding environment in June due to the maturity of over 40 billion yuan in certificates of deposit and 12 billion yuan in reverse repos [12][16] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The banking sector comprises 41 companies with a total market capitalization of 991.12 billion yuan, representing 11.6% of the market [1] Bill Rates - As of the end of May, the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month bill rates were 1.1%, 1.16%, and 1.06%, reflecting changes of -8 basis points, +7 basis points, and -3 basis points respectively [11][19] - The net buying of bills by state-owned banks reached 1,537.018 billion yuan, slightly higher than the previous year's figure [11][19] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 16.026 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 656.6 billion yuan [12][33] - The report notes that the central bank's reverse repo balance has significantly increased compared to historical levels [12][36] Fiscal Insights - The government bond net financing for the week was 514.104 billion yuan, with expectations of a slight decrease in net payments in the upcoming period [14] Certificates of Deposit - The report indicates that June will see a record maturity of over 40 billion yuan in certificates of deposit, which is the largest single-month maturity in history [16] - The large maturities are expected to impact the stability of the funding environment but will also allow for a shift from unstable to more stable liabilities [16] Commercial Bank Financing - The total bond issuance by commercial banks was 762.2 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of 59.3 billion yuan [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market lacks factors to break the current situation, and the market sentiment is weak. The bond market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation, with short - selling pressure slightly stronger at times. However, the valuation of Treasury bond futures is approaching a reasonable level, and the risk of a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to consider buying on dips. In the long - term, the bond market is bullish, and the yield curve is expected to steepen, but the process will be tortuous. The opportunity for futures cash - and - carry arbitrage is decreasing [2][14][16] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From May 26 to June 1, Treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Monday, with calm news and balanced funds, futures opened higher but weakened in the afternoon. On Tuesday, the selling force was slightly stronger, leading to an oscillating decline. On Wednesday, futures oscillated narrowly, and the spot - bond interest rate rose slightly due to high insurance redemptions of bond funds. On Thursday, futures dropped significantly after the US court's ruling on Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," but the spot - bond interest rate declined slightly after the market closed. On Friday, futures had an island reversal as the US appellate court approved a stay of the trade - court order. As of May 30, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan from the previous weekend [1][13] 1.2 Next Week's View - The May official manufacturing PMI met expectations and had limited impact. The market will focus on the capital and certificate - of - deposit (CD) rates. Although the risk of a significant increase in these rates is low, market sentiment is weak, and concerns about CD price hikes need time to ease. The Treasury bond futures market will continue to oscillate narrowly, with short - selling pressure stronger at times. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][14][16] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 61 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 394.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 267.382 billion yuan, down 574.110 billion and 280.697 billion yuan from last week. 39 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 228.212 billion yuan and a net financing of 137.382 billion yuan, down 20.310 billion and 5.207 billion yuan. 347 CDs were issued, with a total issuance of 669.5 billion yuan and a net financing of 1.677 billion yuan, down 4.394 billion and up 4.167 billion yuan [19][21][22] 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields showed a differentiated trend. As of May 30, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.46%, 1.55%, 1.68%, and 1.90%, changing - 0.70, + 1.62, - 4.20, and + 1.00 basis points from the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 10Y - 5Y spreads narrowed by 5.71 and 5.82 basis points to 21.55 and 12.78 basis points, while the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 5.20 basis points to 22.18 basis points. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.71%, up 4.37, 2.01, and 0.36 basis points [26][27] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined. As of May 30, the settlement prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures contracts were 102.398, 106.005, 108.715, and 119.410 yuan, down 0.004, 0.040, 0.140, and 0.190 yuan. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year futures were 36,744, 60,618, 73,230, and 81,786 lots, down 12,434, 12,367, 26,624, and 12,186 lots. The open interests were 121,931, 166,043, 207,541, and 124,113 lots, down 3,482, 4,634, 10,880, and 2,668 lots [36][39] 3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - The opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage continued to decline. The market was weak this week, and the basis rose slightly due to news such as the ban on tariff policies. Looking ahead, the cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunity will disappear, and the basis will return to normal [43] 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of May 24, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts between 2506 and 2509 were - 0.170, - 0.290, - 0.220, and - 0.670 yuan, changing - 0.014, + 0.010, + 0.060, and + 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [47] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - The central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 65.66 billion yuan this week. In May, the central bank conducted 70 billion yuan in outright reverse - repurchases, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. As of May 30, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.70%, 1.66%, 1.47%, and 1.62%, up 7.06, 7.85, - 9.40, and 6.50 basis points. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 6.50 trillion yuan, down 0.22 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 83.88%, lower than last week [50][52][57] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined. As of May 30, the US dollar index rose 0.32% to 99.4393, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 10 basis points. The 10 - year China - US Treasury yield spread was inverted by 273.4 basis points [61][62] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices fell this week. As of May 30, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3383.03, 6023.71, and 1558.33 points, down 69.18, 100.59, and 37.32 points. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.66, 4.33, and 7.84 yuan/kg, down 0.29, up 0.06, and down 0.03 yuan/kg [63][65] 7. Investment Suggestion - It is recommended to buy on dips [66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in bill rates and emphasizes the importance of large maturing certificates of deposit [5][11] - It notes that the net buying volume of bills by state-owned banks has increased compared to the same period last year, while city commercial banks have seen a significant rebound in net selling [5][11] - The report anticipates a challenging funding environment in June due to substantial maturities of certificates of deposit and reverse repos [5][12] Industry Scale - The banking industry comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 991.12 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 981.93 billion [1] Bill Market Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month bill rates were 1.1%, 1.16%, and 1.06%, reflecting changes of -8 basis points, +7 basis points, and -3 basis points respectively [11][19] - The cumulative net buying scale of bills for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks was 15,370.18 billion, 814.94 billion, 3,881.66 billion, and 7,057.95 billion respectively [11][19] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a total of 16,026 billion in 7-day reverse repos, achieving a net injection of 6,566 billion [12][33] - The report indicates that the central bank's reverse repo balance has significantly increased compared to historical levels [12][36] Funding Rates - The report states that the funding rates for DR001, DR007, and DR014 were 1.48%, 1.66%, and 1.72% respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [13][38] - It is expected that funding rates may decline in the upcoming period, although various factors could complicate the funding landscape in June [13][18] Government Debt Financing - The report mentions that the government debt net financing for the week was 5,141.04 billion, with expectations for a slight decrease in net payments in the following period [14][38] Certificates of Deposit - The report highlights that June will see a record maturity of over 40,784 billion in certificates of deposit, the largest single-month maturity in history [16][18] - The large maturities are attributed to various factors, including tighter funding conditions in Q1 2025 and regulatory influences [16][18]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 700 billion yuan reverse repurchase operations on May 30, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The reverse repurchase operations included 400 billion yuan for a 3-month term and 300 billion yuan for a 6-month term [2] - Additionally, the PBOC executed a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 291.1 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, consistent with the previous trading day [3][4] Group 2 - On the same day, various funding rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) remaining unchanged at 1.411%, while the 7-day Shibor increased by 2.4 basis points to 1.602% [5] - The weighted average rate of the DR007 repo rose to 1.633%, exceeding the policy rate level, indicating a potential short-term disturbance in the funding environment [5] - The Shanghai government announced that during the upcoming Lujiazui Forum, significant financial policies will be released by central financial management departments [5][6] Group 3 - The PBOC is accelerating the development of policies to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, with several initiatives already launched this year [6] - Recent policies include enhancing cross-border financial services and supporting the establishment of a "technology board" in the bond market [6] - The Lujiazui Forum, scheduled for June 18-19, 2025, has been a significant platform for discussing major economic and financial issues since its inception in 2008 [6]