Core Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. is greater than expected, which is likely to trigger a risk-on sentiment in the market [1] - The firm anticipates that the market will temporarily regain its risk appetite, and the pressure for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates may also ease in the short term [1]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 股指期货周报 正信期货研究院 股指期货周报 品种研究报告 风偏改善、指数上行，关注 4 月经济检验 市场回顾：海外英美达成贸易协定、权益风偏改善，国内降准降息落 地、政策预期支撑，随着利空因素逐渐落地、风险扰动边际减弱，节 后指数震荡上行，板块全线收涨。截至5月9日当周，沪深300跌0.36%、 上证 50 跌 0.84%、中证 500 涨 0.46%，中证 1000 涨 0.50%；IF 跌 0.55%、 IH 跌 1.01%、IC 涨 0.35%，IM 涨 0.59%。Shibor 隔夜利率下行 26 个 基点，DR007 下行 25.77 个基点，银行间市场利率边际下行。 宏观基本面：4 月政治局会议强调要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政 策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，外需扰动 背景下、内需引擎作用加强，宏观政策调控预期进一步加强，5 月劳 动节后降准降息落地，虽然一季度经济在逆周期调节的作用下超预期 修复，但二季度经济存在较大的回落压力，当前通缩压力仍然明显， 后续需要进一步关注宏观政策的提振作用和经济修复的内生动力。 观点策略：国内方面，4 月指数调 ...

Group 1 - The A500 Index ETF has shown significant liquidity with a turnover rate of 4.32% and a transaction volume of 626 million yuan [2] - Over the past week, the A500 Index ETF has achieved an average daily transaction volume of 2.408 billion yuan, ranking in the top three among comparable funds [2] - The A500 Index ETF has experienced a growth of 17 million yuan in scale over the past three months, leading among comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF has seen a notable increase in shares, with a growth of 10.2 million shares over the past week [2] - In the last four trading days, the A500 Index ETF recorded net inflows of 97.4215 million yuan on three occasions [2] - The underlying index, the CSI A500 Index, is currently valued at a historical low with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 1.51, which is below 89.58% of the time over the past year, indicating strong valuation attractiveness [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index account for 20.8% of the index, including major companies such as Kweichow Moutai, CATL, and Ping An Insurance [2] - The market is expected to regain activity with a clear structural trend, supported by recent major policy announcements that enhance market transaction enthusiasm [3] - External factors affecting the market have shown signs of improvement, leading to a decrease in uncertainty and a potential increase in risk appetite [3]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 中美瑞士谈判提升全球风险偏好， 美国散户看涨比例大幅提升 ——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250502-20250509) 证 相关研究 - 证券分析师 金倩婧 A0230513070004 jinqj@swsresearch.com 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 fengxy2@swsresearch.com 林遵东 A0230524100005 linzd@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 涂锦文 A0230123070009 tujw@swsresearch.com 联系人 涂锦文 (8621)23297818× tujw@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 大 类 资 产 配 置 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250502–20250509）市场聚焦美中新一轮经贸会谈，特朗普政府暗示可 能下调部分中国进口商品关税，阶段性提振乐观预期。1）利率 ...

增加仓位的股性已经是许多基金产品留住基金持有人的关键策略。 近日，多只"重债轻股"的基金产品密集披露基金合同终止风险，这背后反映了基金持有人对市场的期待，与基 金产品重仓对象发生矛盾的现象。目前，基金持有人对市场走势的预期越来越多地指向权益类资产的反弹，一 些仓位配置严重偏离市场风格的基金产品面临较大的赎回压力。 多位基金公司人士判断，风险偏好已逐步回归，投资中国股市的机会成本快速下降，从而促使增量资金积极入 市。 股票买太少，密集提示产品存续风险 压缩股票仓位的基金产品，在当前市场中可能不太讨巧基金持有人。 5月10日，德邦基金发布公告称，旗下德邦新回报灵活基金根据《基金合同》的规定，《基金合同》生效后， 连续60个工作日出现基金份额持有人数量不满200人或者基金资产净值低于5000万元情形的，基金将按照基金 合同的约定终止并进入清算程序，无需召开基金份额持有人大会。截至5月8日，基金已连续50个工作日的基金 资产净值低于5000万元。 显而易见的是，在重仓基操作策略上，上述FOF以62%的压倒性优势配置到债券型基金产品上，而给予偏股型 基金产品不足6%的仓位，或成为该基金提示基金规模缩水的核心触发因素，即 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.3% to close at 100.338, indicating a decline against a basket of currencies, except for the Canadian dollar [1] - Analysts suggest that the worst phase of the trade and tariff war may be over, as the Trump administration appears to be reaching out to different countries [1] - The Canadian unemployment rate increased from 6.7% in March to 6.9% in April, which was higher than the market expectation of 6.8%, contributing to the decline of the Canadian dollar [1] Group 2 - The euro appreciated to 1.1259 USD from the previous day's 1.1225 USD, while the British pound rose to 1.3315 USD from 1.3251 USD [2] - The US dollar exchanged at 145.27 JPY, down from 145.88 JPY, and at 0.8311 CHF, slightly down from 0.8312 CHF [2] - The US dollar strengthened against the Canadian dollar, trading at 1.3930 CAD, up from 1.3928 CAD [2]

换资前言： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周五(5月9日)亚市尾盘，美元指数位于100.65附近；现货黄金在昨日暴跌后有所反弹，目前金价位于 3313美元/盎司附近。美元指数周四上涨，在美国与英国达成双边贸易协议后，市场情绪受到安抚，美 元兑避险货币日元与瑞郎走强。追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周四收盘攀升0.73%，至 100.64，美国总统特朗普周四宣布与英国达成一项"突破性"贸易协议，该协议保留对包括汽车在内的英 国进口商品征收10%的基准关税。因英美贸易协议提升市场风险偏好，加之美元和美债收益率大幅攀 升，现货黄金周四收盘暴跌58.25美元，跌幅1.73%，报3305.89美元/盎司。周五，投资者将迎来大量美 联储官员讲话，其中美联储" ...

周四，比特币重回10万美元以上，为自今年2月以来首次突破这一心理关口。分析师表示，这反映出投资者对风 险资产的整体需求正在回升，与此同时，美股也持续从4月低点反弹，市场风险偏好明显增强。 加密货币交易所Kraken的全球经济学家Thomas Perfumo指出："比特币重新站上六位数大关，正值全球市场风险 情绪复苏之际。股票市场表现强劲，投资者对于配置风险资产的意愿正在增强，而这种复苏的'动物精神'也迅 速蔓延到了加密货币领域。" 今年1月20日，即美国总统特朗普宣誓就职当天，比特币创下历史新高，达到109,225美元。当时，市场普遍预 期新政府将为加密资产带来更宽松的监管环境。然而，随后由于特朗普政府推动的关税政策引发风险市场震 荡，比特币一度在4月初跌破8万美元。 本周四，在特朗普宣布其政府已与英国达成初步贸易协议后，美股与比特币双双上涨。Interactive Brokers高级 经济学家JoséTorres表示："投资者终于看到了'特朗普贸易隧道'尽头的光明，现在开始将注意力转向特朗普政策 组合中的增长预期。" 比特币周四上涨5%，最高触及101,515美元，下午交投于约101,094美元。与此同时， ...

周四（5月8日）欧市尾盘，法国10年期国债收益率涨4.6个基点，刷新日高至3.241%。 意大利10年期国债收益率涨3.4个基点，刷新日高至3.583%。 西班牙10年期国债收益率涨4.7个基点，刷新日高至3.176%。 希腊10年期国债收益率涨5.3个基点，刷新日高至3.353%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recent decline in gold prices, with the most active June 2025 gold futures dropping by $69.2 to $3372.6 per ounce, a decrease of 2.01% due to profit-taking by investors after two days of significant gains [1] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates despite President Trump's call for a rate cut, citing rising risks in unemployment and inflation [1] - China's central bank continues to contribute positively to the gold market, with gold reserves reported at 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2294.51 tons) as of the end of April, marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (approximately 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [1] - Poland's central bank increased its gold reserves by 12 tons to 509 tons in April, while the Czech National Bank also raised its reserves by 2.5 tons, marking the 26th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in gold prices, institutions remain optimistic about the outlook, with U.S. Bank analysts projecting that gold prices could rise to $4000 per ounce in the second half of the year, a significant increase from their previous forecast of $3500 by 2027 [2] - Silver futures for July delivery also saw a decline, dropping by $0.825 to $32.61 per ounce, a decrease of 2.47% [2]