Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the upcoming non-farm payroll report could be a crucial factor for gold prices to rebound to $3,500 per ounce, depending on the employment data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Gold prices fell to a two-week low due to increased risk appetite stemming from signs of easing trade tensions, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - A stronger US dollar has also contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Giovanni Staunovo from UBS indicated that market optimism regarding the US signing lower tariff agreements with other countries is affecting gold prices negatively [1] - A weak employment report is expected to bolster calls for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially allowing gold prices to rise in the coming months [1]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term maintain A - share four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) as short - term cautious long; commodities as cautious wait - and - see; treasury bonds as cautious wait - and - see; ranking: stock index > treasury bonds > commodities [2] - Commodity strategy ranking: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in Q1 2025, the economy grew strongly and exceeded market expectations. The US's signal of trade relaxation and the Politburo meeting's indication of new incremental policies supported the domestic market sentiment. Internationally, the US economy slowed due to the decline in service - sector prosperity, but the US released positive signals on tariffs, which affected the dollar and global risk appetite. Overall, the domestic market rebounded in the short term, with the stock index maintained for cautious long, the bond market in high - level short - term oscillation, and the commodity market showing different trends [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - The IMF significantly lowered the global economic growth forecast in its April report, with the US economic growth forecast cut by 0.9 percentage points in 2025 [3] - The US President called for the Fed to cut interest rates, mentioned cryptocurrency regulation, and said the US - China trade tension would ease and might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China [3][4] - The Fed's Beige Book showed that international trade policy uncertainty led to a slowdown in the US economic outlook [4] - US economic data such as PMI, initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and inflation expectations were released, showing a mixed economic situation [4][5] - The European Central Bank's president mentioned the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth, and the ECB's survey adjusted the euro - zone economic growth and inflation forecasts [5][9] - China's 4 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the central bank increased liquidity support through MLF operations. The Politburo meeting proposed a series of economic stimulus policies [7][8][9] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From April 28 to May 2, various industrial data, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, and housing price indices in different regions will be released [10] 3.3 Global Asset Price Movements - Stock markets: Different stock indices showed different daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes, with some rising and some falling [11] - Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries changed, with some rising and some falling [11] - Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, oil, and precious metals had different price changes [11] - Exchange rates: The dollar index, exchange rates between major currencies also had corresponding fluctuations [11] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal consumption and inventory, and iron ore prices and inventory were presented through various charts [13][16][23] - Midstream: Information on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and capacity utilization, and chemical product prices and inventory were shown [41][51][57] - Downstream: Data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales and tire production, and agricultural product prices were provided [70][72][79] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: The US Treasury yield curve and its weekly changes were presented [81] - Domestic liquidity: Central bank's open - market operations, reverse - repurchase maturities, and domestic interest rates such as inter - bank lending rates and bond yields were shown [83][90][94] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From April 27 to May 2, important economic indicators such as industrial enterprise profits, economic sentiment indices, consumer confidence indices, housing price indices, GDP, inflation rates, employment data, and central bank policy announcements in different countries and regions will be released [102]

Core Viewpoint - The VIX index, often referred to as the "fear index," reflects the market's expectations of future volatility in the S&P 500 and serves as a barometer for investor sentiment and anxiety in the financial markets [1][6]. Group 1: Understanding VIX - The VIX is created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange and measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, indicating market participants' fears and expectations [1]. - A rising VIX suggests increased market anxiety, often triggered by actions from the Federal Reserve, geopolitical tensions, or disappointing economic data [1][6]. - The VIX is not a neutral indicator; it reflects the genuine concerns of wealthy investors and policymakers regarding asset depreciation and economic instability [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions to VIX - When the VIX spikes, the market typically shifts to a "risk-off" mode, leading investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen [4][5]. - A high VIX often correlates with a strengthening dollar, as investors rush to convert their assets into USD for safety, although this relationship can vary depending on market conditions [5][6]. - Conversely, a low VIX may indicate complacency in the market, potentially signaling a buildup of hidden risks, making gold a crucial asset for protection during such times [6][7]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - The signals from the VIX should inform trading strategies in forex and gold markets, guiding decisions on whether to increase exposure to safe-haven assets or take profits [7]. - Understanding the underlying drivers of VIX movements—whether macroeconomic events or technical adjustments—can provide deeper insights into market dynamics [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to view the VIX as a complex signal rather than a simple number, integrating it with other indicators for a comprehensive market analysis [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US continues to release signals of trade relaxation, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The Chinese foreign exchange regulator aims to correct pro - cyclical market behaviors, alleviating the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Domestic policy support and US - China trade relaxation signals strongly support the short - term risk appetite of the domestic market [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; bonds are expected to fluctuate at high levels with cautious long positions; commodities show different trends in sub - sectors, with black metals being weak in the short - term, non - ferrous metals and energy - chemicals expected to rebound, and precious metals fluctuating at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: US tariff policies lead to rising prices, slowing economic activities, and a 16 - month low in business activities. The US President's statements on tariff reduction and exemption boost the US dollar and global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's actions ease RMB exchange rate pressure, and domestic policies and US - China trade signals support the domestic market [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declines slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, agriculture, and hotel tourism. However, short - term risk appetite is supported, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market experiences a significant correction. Factors such as the US government's attitude towards tariffs, the strengthening of the US dollar, and economic data affect the market. In the long - term, the decline of the US government's credit and trade policy uncertainties support the fundamentals of gold, and a correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but faces greater correction pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - The spot and futures prices of steel rebound, and market trading volume recovers. Demand is recovering, and inventory is decreasing, but supply also has room to increase. The short - term market is dominated by macro - sentiment, and an interval - oscillation approach is recommended [5]. Iron Ore - The spot and futures prices of iron ore rebound due to macro - sentiment. Its fundamentals are relatively strong. Iron - water production has room for further increase, and supply is expected to rise in the second quarter. An interval - oscillation approach is recommended, and attention should be paid to the peak of iron - water production [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are stable. The demand for ferroalloys is acceptable, but the production willingness of silicon - manganese enterprises is decreasing. The short - term prices are expected to oscillate within an interval [6][7]. Energy - chemicals Crude Oil - The concern about OPEC's production increase outweighs the impact of potential trade - tariff relaxation, causing the oil price to decline [8]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the decline of oil prices. The market shows a north - south differentiation, and its fundamentals lack driving forces and mainly follow the movement of crude - oil prices [8]. PX - The external price of PX rebounds with crude oil, but the supply - demand situation is weak. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern similar to PTA [8]. PTA - The basis of PTA declines slightly. Although tariff - relaxation news boosts the price, terminal orders are poor, and downstream inventory pressure increases. It will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern [9]. Ethylene Glycol - The de - stocking of port inventory is limited, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The price will continue to oscillate weakly [9]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber rebounds slightly with polyester. However, domestic demand is low, and inventory is accumulating. It will follow the movement of crude oil but with a smaller increase [10][11]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang rises slightly. Inventory shows a slight change, and the 05 contract price will oscillate, while the 09 contract may face supply pressure [12]. PP - The domestic PP market shows a narrow - range adjustment. Although downstream开工 declines, upstream maintenance increases, and supply - side reduction is expected to ease the pressure, and the price is expected to repair through oscillation [13]. LLDPE - The PE market price adjusts. Import volume is expected to decline, and the price will oscillate with limited downward space in the short - term, but face pressure from new production capacity in the long - term [14][15]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Global manufacturing PMI is better than expected. A copper mine accident and the decline in processing fees affect the market. With strong demand, the inventory of refined copper is decreasing, and the short - term price will continue to rebound [16]. Aluminum - Trump's statement on tariff reduction boosts market sentiment. The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, but the long - term trend still depends on tariff negotiations and domestic policies. The short - term price may rebound, but it is bearish in the medium - term [16]. Tin - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the mining area. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand is differentiated. The inventory has decreased significantly, and the short - term price may rebound with limited space [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans rises due to the relaxation of trade tensions and a weak US dollar. The sowing progress is normal [18][19]. Soybean Meal - The slow recovery of oil - mill operations has led to a significant increase in the spot basis. With the arrival of imported soybeans and the resumption of operations, the high basis is expected to decline. Near - month contracts may face limited upside [19]. Vegetable Oils and Meals - Different vegetable oils and meals have different market conditions. For example, soybean oil inventory is decreasing, palm oil demand is expected to be stable, and rapeseed meal is in the demand season but may face inventory risks [20]. Livestock Pigs - The market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. Although there is seasonal demand for piglets, short - term supply pressure may increase, and the price may face pressure around May [21][22]. Corn - The corn market faces upper - limit pressure from weak demand and high inventory and lower - limit support from factors such as low inventory in production areas and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [22].

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：feng ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global risk appetite has significantly increased due to the US releasing signals of trade relaxation. The short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported by factors such as the Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures to prevent RMB exchange - rate overshooting, strengthened domestic policy support, and the US - China trade relaxation signals. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations, treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The IMF has significantly downgraded the global economic outlook due to the impact of Trump's high tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade tension between the US and China will ease, and Trump has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell but hopes for a rate cut, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures have relieved the RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported [1]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as logistics trade, cross - border payment, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen slightly. With the relief of RMB exchange - rate pressure and strengthened policy support, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market continued to rise on Tuesday. The US government's credit damage, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and other factors will support the short - term strength of gold. If there is a correction, it may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but has greater correction pressure [2][3]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Tuesday, with a significant decline in trading volume. The real demand recovery lacks sustainability, and the supply remains high. The short - term steel market is recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures and spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday. The ore fundamentals are still good, but if the steel prices remain low, iron ore may experience a supplementary decline [5]. 3.4.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the operating rates of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises have decreased. The short - term ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [6]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand pressure is expected to be small. The 05 contract price will mainly oscillate, and the 09 contract has a large supply - expectation pressure, waiting for a short - selling opportunity on a rebound [7]. 3.5.2 PP - The domestic PP market quotation was slightly adjusted. Although there is new production capacity, the supply reduction on the supply side will relieve the overall pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [8]. 3.5.3 LLDPE - The PE market price was adjusted. The near - month price has limited downward space due to low - inventory support. The 09 contract's supply and demand situation needs to be tracked, and the long - term price is still under pressure due to new production capacity release [9]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - The copper price rose due to the weakening of the US dollar. The fundamentals are okay, and with the improvement of market risk preference and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening, the copper price will continue to rebound with short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, with significant inventory reduction. There is short - term rebound space, but it is still bearish in the medium term [10]. 3.6.3 Tin - The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term tin price will rebound, but the rebound space is limited [11]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean closed higher. The US soybean planting progress is slightly faster, and the weather conditions vary in different regions [12]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal - Since mid - April, the soybean meal spot basis has been strongly pulled up, but it may quickly decline later. The risk of a decline after May Day is relatively high [13]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal has entered the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has declined. The short - term price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to continue to widen [13]. 3.7.4 Oils - The inventory of soybean oil is accelerating to decline, the rapeseed oil is in the off - season, the Malaysian palm oil inventory has reached an inflection point, and the domestic palm oil is less driven by cost [14]. 3.7.5 Pigs - The current market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. After the second - fattening stimulates the spot price to rise, the demand matching is low, and the spot price may be under pressure around May [14]. 3.7.6 Corn - The upper - limit pressure of the current corn price range is due to weak demand and high inventory, while the lower - limit support comes from low inventory in the producing areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures on Wednesday, April 23, 2025, may maintain a pattern of fluctuating slightly upward. The short - term view of crude oil 2506 is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating weakly, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Crude Oil Market Analysis - **Supply - side Changes**: After OPEC+ decided on compensatory production cuts for over - producing Kazakhstan and Iraq, the supply - side expectations of crude oil were revised. The US Treasury's sanctions on Iran to limit its oil exports to zero also adjusted the expected increase in crude oil supply [5]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The sanctions on Iran intensified the conflict between the US and Iran, strengthening the premium boost of geopolitical factors on crude oil [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: After US President Trump stated that he had no intention of dismissing the Fed Chairman, the risk appetite of the global financial market was restored, leading to a slight rebound in international crude oil futures prices [5]. - **Price Performance**: On Tuesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2506 contract closed up 2.15% at 498 yuan per barrel [5].

金十数据4月23日讯，原油期货收复了前一日的大部分失地。Price Futures Group分析师菲尔•弗林表 示："看起来我们正在冒一些风险。有时候，当你结束周末假期后，你会做出一些疯狂的举动和过度反 应。所以我认为我们正在进行一些现实检查，市场正在回升。" 风险偏好回升，原油期货反弹 ...

2025年4月15日 研究所晨会观点精萃 行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021- ...