zhoushupeng@hnchasing.com 证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 09 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3385.36 | 0.04 | | 深证成指 | 10183.70 | -0.19 | | 创业板指 | 2039.44 | -0.45 | | 科创 50 | 991.64 | -0.48 | | 北证 50 | 1427.06 | -0.53 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指 | 652341 | 509806 | 11.97 | 1.24 | | 数 | | | | | | 深证成 | 216967 | 183799 | 19.97 | 2.11 | | 指 | | | | | | 创业板 | 57986 | 45808 | 26.80 | 3.74 | | 指 | | | | | | 科创 50 | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 重视稳定现金流和潜在高股息 [Tablary] 顺周期业绩承压、新赛道估值不低等市场背景下，具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的资产一直备 受市场青睐，但传统高股息标的涨幅已经较大，资金需要寻找新的投资领域，部分低估值周期 类资产因内含优质现金流，其配置价值正逐步凸显。广义不动产领域，至少三个领域具备稳定 现金流和潜在高股息：1）综合型不动产商，典型如华润置地等，也包括开发业务风险出清后的 部分民营不动产商；2）商业地产公司，典型如部分港资商企；3）轻资产公司，典型如龙头经 纪和央国企物管。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 重视稳定现金流和潜在高股息 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标明显更为积极，市场预期有所改善，但 4 月以来边际下 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 重视稳定现金流和潜在高股息 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 顺周期业绩承压、新赛道估值不低等市场背景下，具备稳定现金流和潜在高股息的资产一直备 受市场青睐，但传统高股息标的涨幅已经较大，资金需要寻找新的投资领域，部分低估值周期 类资产因内含优质现金流，其配置价值正逐步凸显。广义不动产领域，至少三个领域具备稳定 现金流和潜在高股息：1）综合型不动产商，典型如华润置地等，也包括开发业务风险出清后的 部分民营不动产商；2）商业地产公司，典型如部分港资商企；3）轻资产公司，典型如龙头经 纪和央国企物管。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 重视稳定现金流和潜在高股息 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 政策：财政部、住建部公示 2025 年城市更新行动评审结果；江苏发布 ...

煤炭周报 港口持续去库，迎峰度夏有望促成动力煤反弹行情 2025 年 06 月 07 日 ➢ 港口持续去库，迎峰度夏有望促成动力煤反弹行情。本周坑口煤价涨跌互现， 港口煤价窄幅震荡、整体平稳，低卡煤因货源紧缺价格小幅上涨。基本面来看， 需求端，伴随气温逐渐升高，电厂日耗进入上行通道，后续火电发电增速或有望 转正，水电去年同期基数较高、挤压作用有限，同时非电需求仍维持高位。供给 端，一方面产量对持续低煤价的负反馈形成，特别是边际产能省份新疆、内蒙环 比降幅明显，另一方面近期产地安全环保检查趋严，供应端有收缩趋势；进口方 面近期印尼煤价格下调，但考虑内贸市场短期价格较为稳定，贸易商挺价意愿较 强，进口煤跌幅有限，后续或延续同比减量趋势。库存端，近期港口库存持续去 化，低卡煤货源少，结构性紧缺支撑挺价情绪，待旺季需求充分释放后有望促成 煤价新一轮反弹行情。板块来看，煤价底部支撑再度被验证后，稳定高股息确定 性价值再度提升，板块有望迎来估值提升行情。短期仍推荐稳健龙头标的，煤价 进入上行通道后高现货比例标的弹性更为充足。 ➢ 供需矛盾难以改善，焦煤价格延续弱势。本周产地因事故、假期停减产煤矿 增多，焦煤供应下滑明显， ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 大地任我行 来源：雪球 六 、 拿到公司分红 ， 就可以用于生活 ， 也可以用于再投资 ， 从而带来投资组合的成长 ， 这样就能弥补企业盈利增长率低的缺点 。 七 、 注重股息的投资生活比纯粹追逐资本利得的投资方法更淡定 ， 更平静 ， 有更多的时间 做其他的事情 ， 这样的生活才是我所追求的 。 在我19年的投资生活中 ， 从来都是重仓持有 股票 ， 没有空仓或减仓持有现金 ， 收益率也挺满意的 。 当然 ， 这些年运气不错 ， 投资离 不开努力 ， 更需要一点运气 。 买入高股息公司要注意的陷阱有 ： 高分红能不能持续 ？ 将来会不会大幅倒退 ？ 是不是强周 期行业 ？ 是不是出于炒作 ， 然后高位套现 ？ 一 、 高成长也意味高估值 ， 或者成长早体现在股价上面了 ， 所以买入这类公司潜在的收益 不一定高 ， 只要成长预期不及 ， 就有双杀的风险 。 二 、 投资要注重确定性 ， " 一鸟在手 ， 胜过两鸟在林 " ， 走向成熟也意味确定性高许多 。 这个道理就像从创业者和现成的企业家中挑选未来的富翁 。 看看 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the ongoing trend of high dividend strategies and the increasing interest from institutional investors, particularly insurance funds, in dividend-paying stocks [1][2][3] - The Reducing Volatility ETF (512890) has seen significant trading activity, with a net inflow of 6 billion yuan in a single day, marking a new high for the year, and total net subscriptions of 33 billion yuan year-to-date [1] - The current market environment shows a preference for high dividend stocks due to factors such as high U.S. Treasury yields and a tightening liquidity situation, which may affect risk appetite [1][2] Group 2 - Insurance capital is driving a new wave of stock acquisitions focused on dividends, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed in stock performance before and after these acquisitions [2] - Long-term capital inflows are expected to continue, with public funds and insurance capital projected to enter the market with approximately 4.2 trillion yuan by 2025 [2] - The market outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations for the Shanghai Composite Index to potentially break upward, supported by insurance funds favoring high dividend yield stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jinhuijiu has made significant moves in the white liquor market by announcing high dividend payouts and major shareholder increases, reflecting its commitment to quality and shareholder returns amidst a challenging market environment [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, Jinhuijiu achieved a revenue of 3.021 billion yuan, representing an 18.59% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 388 million yuan, up 18.03%, positioning it among the top performers in the white liquor industry [1][4] - The company announced a cash dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 248 million yuan, which constitutes 64% of its net profit for the year, marking the highest dividend payout ratio since its listing [3][4] Dividend History - Since its listing in 2016, Jinhuijiu has prioritized investor returns, with dividend payout ratios of 54.50%, 60.00%, and 64.00% from 2022 to 2024, establishing itself as a model for shareholder returns in the A-share market [2][3] Product and Market Strategy - Jinhuijiu is shifting its product structure towards higher-end offerings, with sales of products priced above 300 yuan increasing by 41.17% in 2024, now accounting for 19.52% of total liquor revenue [4][5] - The company is focusing on a national layout while deepening its presence in the northwest, achieving 76.90% of its revenue from Gansu province, while also expanding its market presence in other regions [4][6] Sales Channels and Marketing - Jinhuijiu has diversified its sales channels, with revenue from distributors reaching 2.744 billion yuan, a 15.43% increase, and online sales growing by 43.36% to 83.997 million yuan, highlighting the importance of digital platforms [5][6] - The company has enhanced its brand visibility through targeted marketing campaigns, achieving over 82 million exposures during the Spring Festival promotional activities [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - Jinhuijiu's strategy includes a "national layout, deepening the northwest, and key breakthroughs," aiming to cultivate markets in eastern and northern China while maintaining strong growth in its core regions [6][7] - The company has also implemented a "factory-dealer integration" model to improve inventory management and avoid stockpiling risks, with the number of dealers reaching 1,001 [6][7] Market Outlook - Analysts have noted that Jinhuijiu's strategic transformation has positioned it well for future growth, with a focus on high-end product development and digital brand empowerment [7][8] - Recent reports from various securities firms indicate strong confidence in Jinhuijiu's market strategies and financial health, with expectations for continued revenue growth [8][9]

Group 1 - The Guoqi Gongying ETF (159719) has seen a 0.40% increase, with a latest price of 1.52 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 2.64% over the past month as of June 5, 2025 [1] - The liquidity of the Guoqi Gongying ETF shows a turnover of 2% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 2.23 million yuan, and an average daily transaction of 17.57 million yuan over the past year [1] - The Zhongzheng Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index (931000) has decreased by 0.05%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] Group 2 - The newly established Chengtong Science and Technology Investment Fund focuses on private equity investment management and venture capital management, with a total investment of 10.01 billion yuan [1] - The fund is a collaboration among China Chengtong, Sinopec, China Aviation Oil, and the Haidian District government, aiming to create a multi-faceted collaborative structure [2] - The fund will primarily invest in three core areas: new materials, advanced manufacturing, and next-generation information technology, utilizing a combination of equity investment and ecological incubation strategies [2] Group 3 - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) has increased by 0.34%, with a latest price of 1.20 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 3.29% over the past month as of June 5, 2025 [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Theme Index account for 53.21% of the index, including major companies like BYD and Ping An [4] - The Guoqi Gongying ETF closely tracks the FTSE China State-Owned Enterprises Open Win Index, which consists of 100 constituent stocks, including major state-owned enterprises [4]

一、三大指数集体飘红 6 月 5 日的 A 股市场 ，投资者的目光紧锁在行情大屏 —— 军工股集体爆发与算力板块的强 势拉升形成鲜明对照，而大消费板块的绿线则默默延伸。截至 收盘 ，上证指数微涨 0. 23 % 报 3 384.10 点，深证成指涨 0. 50 % 报 10 203 .5 0 点，创业板指涨 1.17 % 报 20 48.62 点，沪深两市半日成交额 12904 亿元， 相对昨天放量 1374 亿 ，结构性行情正成为 资金博弈的核心战场。 3 、 资金布局聚焦科技主线。两融余额突破 1.8 万亿元大关，单日增长 24.4 亿元，其中东 方财富获融资买入 8.26 亿元，新易盛、中际旭创等 TMT 个股同样获大额融资流入。今日新 发的 9 只基金涵盖混合型与债券型产品，为市场输送增量弹药。游资则围绕连板股展开攻势 —— 滨海能源 13 天 8 板，均瑶健康 8 天 6 板，短线赚钱效应持续激活交投情绪。 四 、后市展望：结构分化延续 当前市场核心矛盾凸显：一方面关税政策扰动推升避险需求，黄金配置价值凸显；另一方面低 利率环境重塑估值体系，高股息化工股（股息率普遍超 6% ）与科技成长股形成配置双 ...

扫码进入基本功专栏 持有人首次认证有礼啦！只要在4月30日前持有中泰资管产品并持有至今且的新朋友，长按识别下方 二维码前往认证，即可获得 影音会员月卡 一份 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 ELR+ 可以怎么加? "+"的部分包括多种资产 和策略,常见的有以下几种。 固收+股票,这是较为常见的搭配,根据股票性质的 不同,还可分为 高股息策略. 红利策略、周期股策略 等。也可参与股票 打新,赚取新股上市溢价。 ...