Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In November, the CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [2][3] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 14.5% after a nine-month decline [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating stable inflationary pressure [2][3][8] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of growth, influenced by seasonal demand increases in certain industries [4] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to the previous month, primarily due to high comparison bases from the previous year [4][5] - The prices in sectors such as coal mining and gas production saw significant month-on-month increases due to seasonal demand, while oil-related sectors experienced price declines [4][5] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The ongoing "anti-involution" measures are showing results, with price declines in key industries narrowing, indicating improved market competition [5][6] - Emerging industries are driving price increases in related sectors, with notable growth in new materials and intelligent technology, suggesting a positive trend for future pricing [6][8] - The potential for moderate price recovery is anticipated, supported by stable domestic demand and effective policy measures aimed at boosting consumption [7][8]

11月PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。综合整 治"内卷式"竞争成效显现，相关行业价格同比降幅收窄。 《 人民日报 》（ 2025年12月11日 03 版） 本报北京12月10日电 （记者刘志强）10日，国家统计局发布11月份物价运行数据。11月份，居民消费 持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以 来最高，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品 价格传导等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月环比上涨，同比下 降2.2%。 CPI同比涨幅扩大，主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同 比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。能源价格下降3.4%，降幅比上月扩大1.0个百 分点，其中汽油价格降幅扩大至7.5%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月 保持在1%以上。服务和扣除能源的工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响 ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining above 1% for three consecutive months [1] - Food prices shifted from a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2%, contributing positively to the CPI [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.2% [2] - Seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries, such as coal and gas, contributed to the month-on-month price rise in November [2] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was influenced by a high comparison base from the previous year, with the reduction in price declines for certain industries indicating the effectiveness of measures against "involution" competition [2]

Group 1 - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the highest growth since March 2024 [1] - The increase in CPI year-on-year was primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.2% [2][3] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating effective demand expansion policies [2] - Seasonal demand increases in certain domestic industries contributed to the rise in PPI, with coal mining and gas production prices increasing by 4.1% and 0.7% respectively [2] - The prices of fresh vegetables saw a significant turnaround, increasing by 14.5% year-on-year after nine months of decline, indicating a tightening supply due to weather and production disruptions [1][4] Group 3 - The prices of essential consumer goods, such as nutritional food manufacturing, increased by 1.1% year-on-year, reflecting the positive impact of consumption-boosting initiatives [4] - The prices of home appliances, including washing machines and air conditioners, experienced a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, suggesting a recovery in consumer demand [4] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining sector rose by 2.6% month-on-month, driven by international price increases, while oil and gas extraction prices fell due to declining international oil prices [3]

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, with the core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a 2.9% decline in October to a 0.2% increase in November [2] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant increase, rising by 14.5% year-on-year in November after nine consecutive months of decline, attributed to adverse weather affecting supply [2] Group 2: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the second consecutive month of increase [1][4] - The rise in PPI was influenced by seasonal demand increases in industries such as coal mining, with coal prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month [4] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.2%, with the decline slightly widening compared to October, largely due to high base effects from the previous year [4] Group 3: Emerging Industries and Price Trends - Prices in emerging industries showed signs of recovery, with significant year-on-year increases in sectors such as external storage devices (up 13.9%) and integrated circuit manufacturing (up 1.7%) [5] - The price declines in photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion battery manufacturing narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in these sectors [5] - Overall, the outlook for prices suggests a moderate recovery, supported by improving international trade conditions and ongoing domestic demand policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][8][71] - Food prices rose, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing significant increases of 21.8% and 2.7% respectively, while pork prices remained low at -15% year-on-year [2][8][71] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][8][72] PPI Analysis - The PPI in November recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.2%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [7][45] - Factors influencing PPI include rising coal prices due to anti-involution policies, which increased by 9.5% month-on-month, contributing 0.3% to the PPI [3][35][73] - However, the decline in steel and oil prices negatively impacted the PPI, leading to an overall weak performance in downstream prices [3][35][73] Service CPI Insights - The service CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7% in November, with weak demand for travel and further declines in rental prices [3][25][62] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, primarily due to reduced travel demand post-holiday, affecting hotel and flight prices [3][25][62] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may take time to materialize, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from reduced government subsidies and rising youth unemployment may limit the extent of this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The November CPI rebound was significantly driven by food items, with food CPI rising by 3.1 percentage points to 0.2% year-on-year [5][50][74] - Non-food CPI categories such as household appliances and communication tools experienced declines, with respective decreases of -0.1% and -1.9% [5][55][74] - Overall service CPI showed a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62][74]

Core Insights - In November, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][2][4]. Price Changes - Food prices shifted from a 2.9% decline in the previous month to a 0.2% increase, contributing positively to the CPI [4]. - Fresh vegetable prices surged by 14.5%, marking the first increase after nine consecutive months of decline, significantly impacting the CPI [4]. - The prices of other major categories showed mixed results, with increases in other goods and services (14.2%), clothing (1.9%), and healthcare (1.6%), while transportation and communication prices fell by 2.3% [3][4]. Core CPI - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% year-on-year, maintaining a growth rate above 1% for three consecutive months [4][6]. Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 2.2% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to high comparison bases from the previous year [6]. - The prices in key industries such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed narrowing declines, indicating improved market conditions [6]. Seasonal Demand Impact - Seasonal demand increases in certain industries, such as coal and gas, have led to price hikes in related sectors, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month [5][6]. - The demand for winter clothing and heating products has also contributed to price increases in textile manufacturing [5]. Consumer Spending - The ongoing consumer spending initiatives have positively influenced prices in various sectors, with notable increases in the manufacturing of arts and crafts (20.6%) and sports equipment (4.3%) [6].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - November CPI year-on-year increased to 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of 0.2%[1] - November food CPI month-on-month rose by 0.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] - Core CPI month-on-month fell to -0.3%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, remaining above seasonal levels for two consecutive months[3] Group 2: PPI Insights - November PPI year-on-year decreased to -2.2%, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of -2.1%[4] - Coal mining and washing industry PPI month-on-month increased by 4.1%, significantly up from the previous value of 1.6%[4] - Input factors and real estate chain contributed to a greater drag on PPI year-on-year, with respective contributions of -0.5 and -0.7 percentage points[4] Group 3: Future Inflation Predictions - December CPI is expected to rise to around 1.0% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.2%[6] - December PPI is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase, with the average for 2025 expected to be around -2.6%[6] - The future trajectory of PPI will depend on international commodity prices and domestic policy strength[6] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected policy changes and significant fluctuations in commodity prices[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic growth shows cost reduction and widespread decline in steel prices, with production - related indicators such as power plant daily consumption, blast furnace operation rate, tire operation rate, and loom operation rate showing different trends; demand - side data for real estate, automobiles, steel, cement, glass, and shipping also vary [1][4]. - Inflation is characterized by the agricultural product price index being higher than in recent years, with different price trends for various agricultural products; PPI shows weak oil prices, and different trends for copper and aluminum prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices 1.1 Production: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - **1.1.1 Production End: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On December 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 79.7 tons, a 2.3% increase from December 2; on December 2, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 190.8 tons, a 3.9% increase from November 25. Heating demand in the north boosts power consumption, but demand in non - power industries has limited growth [4][12]. - **1.1.2 Production End: Overall Decline in Blast Furnace Operation Rate** - On December 5, the national blast furnace operation rate was 80.1%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from November 28; the capacity utilization rate was 87.1%, also a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease. However, the blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 2.4 percentage points. Heavy - pollution response measures and weakening demand in the off - season led to the decline [4][17]. - **1.1.3 Production End: Slight Recovery in Tire Operation Rate** - On December 4, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 63.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from November 27; the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 70.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point increase. The loom operation rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region continued to decline [4][20]. 1.2 Demand: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices - **1.2.1 Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From December 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 256,000 square meters, a 42.0% increase from November, but a decline compared to the same period in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased year - on - year [4][25]. - **1.2.2 Demand End: Weak Growth in Automobile Retail Sales** - In December, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year. The low growth was due to high sales in December last year and the weakening impact of the trade - in policy [4][29]. - **1.2.3 Demand End: Widespread Decline in Steel Prices** - On December 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.4%, 2.1%, 2.7%, and 0.5% respectively compared to December 2. Steel inventory reduction accelerated [4][34]. - **1.2.4 Demand End: Moderate Increase in Cement Prices** - On December 9, the national cement price index increased by 0.4% compared to December 2, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions performing better. However, price increases were difficult to implement due to high inventory in some areas. The year - on - year decline in cement prices narrowed [4][35]. - **1.2.5 Demand End: Glass Prices Reached a New Low in the Second Half of the Year** - On December 9, the active glass futures contract price was 985 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decrease from December 2. Weak demand and high inventory were the main reasons [4][40]. - **1.2.6 Demand End: Container Shipping Freight Index Turned Down Again** - On December 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% compared to November 28. Weak market demand and expanding container ship capacity dragged down freight rates [4][44]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years - **2.1.1 Pork Prices Rose and Then Fell** - On December 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.6 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from December 2. The pressure came from the concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The month - on - month decline widened [4][49]. - **2.1.2 Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years** - On December 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to December 2. Different agricultural products had different price trends. The year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the agricultural product price index were 6.0% and 2.4% respectively [4][55]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Oil Prices - **2.2.1 Oil Prices Weakened** - On December 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $62.8 and $58.3 per barrel respectively, a 2.2% and 0.7% decrease from December 2. Oversupply expectations and weakening geopolitical support led to the decline [4][58]. - **2.2.2 Copper Prices Rose and Aluminum Prices Fell** - On December 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.0% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to December 2. The domestic commodity index showed different trends in month - on - month changes [4][63]. - **2.2.3 Most Industrial Product Prices Declined Month - on - Month** - Since December, most industrial product prices declined month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices narrowed, except for cold - rolled sheet and glass [4][65].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，各类挖机、装载机销量同比改善 ——行业景气观察（1210） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，金属价格多数上涨，水泥价格改善；中游制造领域，11 月各类挖掘机、装 载机销量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，11 月集成电路进口、出口同比 增幅扩大，10 月全球半导体销售额同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，11 月服装、 鞋类 CPI 同比增幅扩大，中药材价格上涨。11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅 略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续推动供给出清。推荐景气较高或有改善的有色、 建材、工程机械、中药、纺织服饰、造纸、存储器、集成电路等。 ❑【本周关注】11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续 推动供给出清，PPI 回暖趋势不变。细分项目中：1）受极端天气与季节性供应收 缩驱动，鲜菜鲜果价格同比转正，为 CPI 回暖贡献主要增量，粮食、奶类、酒类、 畜肉类降幅均有不同程度收窄；2）受换季需求提振，服装鞋帽价格改善，旅游、 教育、交通工具等出行消 ...