Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates has divested from U.S.-listed Chinese stocks in Q2 2023, indicating a significant pullback from the market due to geopolitical tensions and declining investor confidence in China's economic outlook [1][2] - The hedge fund has closed out positions in major Chinese companies such as Baidu, Alibaba, JD.com, PDD Holdings, Nio, Trip.com Group, and Yum China, while also reducing its stake in Apple but increasing holdings in Microsoft and Nvidia [2] - Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, had previously defended investments in China but has expressed concerns about U.S.-China relations and economic challenges facing China [3] Company Actions - Bridgewater Associates has sold its stakes in several prominent Chinese companies, reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [2] - The fund's adjustments include a reduction in Apple holdings and an increase in investments in Microsoft and Nvidia, suggesting a reallocation towards more stable or promising sectors [2] Geopolitical Context - The extension of the tariff truce between the U.S. and China for an additional 90 days has implications for trade relations, with current tariffs on Chinese imports at 30% and U.S. exports to China at 10% [4] - The potential increase in tariffs, which could have reached 145% on Chinese goods, highlights the ongoing trade tensions and their impact on investment strategies [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 position. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Under the uncertain Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy, the price once rose significantly, but the high inventory and alternative imports have weakened market concerns. It shows a wide - range shock, with support at 9500 - 9580 and pressure at 10333 - 10343 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, and the Indonesian inventory is low. The August production data is poor, and the export demand in early August is good. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 9050 - 9074 and pressure at 9900 - 9990 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.2**: The market is digesting the positive impact of the August USDA report. The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal, with support at 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton and pressure at 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton. The 09 contract of soybean No.2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with support at 3640 - 3670 and pressure at 3950 - 4000 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 contract shows a wide - range shock, with support at 2600 - 2617 and pressure at 2800 - 2823. The 01 contract is affected by the expected reduction of Canadian rapeseed imports [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report has a negative impact on the external market. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and relevant policies. It is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price continues to fall due to the increasing supply of new soybeans. It is recommended to exit short positions in the main contract and wait and see [6]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The new - season planting area has increased. The 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies [6][7]. - **Pig**: The spot price has adjusted in August, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions of the 09 contract to the 2511 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2605 contract [7]. - **Egg**: The 09 contract price has continued to decline, and the spot price has stabilized in some areas. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 - contract at low prices [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, including supply - demand relationships, price support and pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, the 01 contract of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the 09 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For different varieties' inter - period and inter - variety arbitrage, different reference strategies are provided, such as observing the 9 - 1 spread of soybean No.1, conducting positive spread operations for the 11 - 1 spread of soybean meal, and observing the 09 bean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors are presented, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods are provided, including CBOT prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: The inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, are presented, reflecting the supply - demand situation of the industry [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production and sales data, and inventory data, which can help understand the market situation of the breeding industry [18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - A large number of charts are provided to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, production data, and spread changes, which can help investors comprehensively understand the market situation [24][34][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatilities of various varieties and the trading and holding volume data of corn options are presented, which can help investors understand the option market situation [71]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse - Receipt Situations of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are presented, which can help investors understand the market supply situation [74].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be weak in the short - term due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and pressure from the overall global macroeconomic warming since August [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term as the domestic atmosphere warms up and the copper price stabilizes and rebounds, despite some negative factors [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term view: Downward; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways and weak; Overall view: Bearish in the short - term [1][3]. - Core logic: Yesterday, the gold price was under continuous pressure. The US July PPI annual rate reached 3.3%, the highest since February, and the monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. After the data release, interest - rate futures traders reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the gold price. Since August, the global macro has generally improved, adding pressure on the gold price [3]. Copper - Short - term view: Upward; Medium - term view: Sideways; Intraday view: Sideways and strong; Overall view: Bullish in the short - term [1][5]. - Core logic: Yesterday, the copper price fluctuated downward, and the night - session maintained a weak trend. The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks was released on August 12, 2025, creating a good macro atmosphere at home and abroad, which is beneficial for the copper price. However, the higher - than - expected US PPI, the cooling of rate - cut expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar index are negative for the copper price. It is the off - season in the industry, and inventories have increased slightly. Overall, the copper price is expected to be strong driven by the macro factors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent call by former President Trump for China to significantly increase its soybean purchases from the U.S. reflects the severe challenges faced by the American agricultural sector, particularly the soybean industry, and highlights the complexities of U.S.-China trade relations [3][5][8] Group 1: Agricultural Sector Challenges - The U.S. soybean industry has seen a drastic decline in its market share in China due to tariffs and trade tensions, with exports dropping from several million tons to 22.13 million tons last year [3] - China has diversified its soybean import sources, with Brazilian soybeans accounting for 69% of its total imports, while U.S. soybeans only represent about 21% [3][5] - The economic struggles of American farmers, who are a crucial support base for the Republican Party, have intensified pressure on Trump to improve the situation [3][5] Group 2: Political Implications - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections make agricultural state votes critical, and continued low sales of farm products could lead to voter dissatisfaction with the ruling party [5] - Trump's push for increased soybean purchases is seen as an attempt to stabilize support from agricultural states ahead of the elections [5] Group 3: Trade Relations and Economic Strategy - Trump views expanding agricultural exports as a means to reduce the U.S.-China trade deficit, but this approach may not address the underlying issues of trade imbalance [5][6] - The complexity of U.S.-China trade relations means that unilateral demands from the U.S. are unlikely to yield significant changes in China's import strategies [6][8] - A mutual and fair resolution to trade disputes, including tariff barriers, is essential for meaningful progress in trade cooperation [6][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overall global macro warming, despite support from the weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish outlook as the positive macro environment from the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks outweighs the slightly negative industry situation during the off - season [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term view: Decline [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a weak bias [1] - Core logic: The US economy underperformed expectations in July, with CPI lower than expected, leading to rising Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index fell below 98, supporting the gold price. However, the overall global macro warming exerts pressure on the gold price. Technically, focus on the 3400 mark of New York gold for the battle between bulls and bears [3] Copper - Short - term view: Rise [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a strong bias [1] - Core logic: The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, created a positive macro environment. Although it is the industry off - season with a slight increase in inventory, the positive macro factors are expected to drive the copper price to run strongly. Technically, focus on the technical support at the 79,000 mark [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors, with the US soybean market being undervalued and supply exceeding demand, while the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and the spot may start destocking in September [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has seen an increase in exports in Malaysia, and the market is supported by factors such as the potential of the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations [7][9]. - The sugar market is expected to see a decline in the price of Zhengzhou sugar in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [11][12]. - The cotton market has seen a short - term rebound in prices due to the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, but the downstream consumption is average, and the price may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][15]. - The egg market has a large supply scale, and the egg price is weaker than expected in the peak season. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [16][17]. - The pig market has a situation where the spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 108,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the downstream inventory days increased by 0.32 days to 8.37 days. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation [2][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed long and short factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, as well as the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel in the first half of 2025. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils, and the palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has an upward expectation in the fourth quarter. However, due to multiple restrictive factors, the market should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday, and the spot prices of various sugar - making groups increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of August had an average daily export volume 2% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is more likely to decline in the future, assuming no significant rebound in the outer - market price [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday. The USDA report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption estimates, and a decrease in the ending inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Driven by the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas making small adjustments. The supply remained stable, and the market digestion was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply scale is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [17]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly increased slightly, and the downstream increment was not obvious, so the continuous price increase is difficult [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August 2025/26 cotton monthly report shows significant adjustments in global cotton supply and demand data, with a sharp decline in US cotton production exceeding market expectations, leading to a substantial increase in US cotton prices. Continued attention should be paid to the weather conditions in major northern hemisphere producing countries and the progress of China-US trade relations [1][2]. Summary by Content Production - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production decreased by 391,000 tons month-on-month. US cotton production decreased significantly, with the planting area reduced from 10.12 million acres in July to 9.28 million acres, the harvested area reduced from 8.66 million acres to 7.36 million acres, and the yield per acre increased from 809 pounds to 862 pounds, resulting in a monthly decrease of 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons. China's cotton production increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons [1]. Consumption - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton consumption decreased by 30,000 tons month-on-month. China's consumption increased by 218,000 tons, while India's consumption decreased by 109,000 tons, Bangladesh's decreased by 65,000 tons, and Turkey's decreased by 43,000 tons [1]. Import and Export - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton imports decreased by 239,000 tons month-on-month, with Bangladesh, China, Turkey, and India all experiencing declines. Global exports decreased by 240,000 tons, with the US and Mali seeing significant drops, indicating weak global import and export demand [2]. Ending Inventory - In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory decreased by 742,000 tons month-on-month. China's ending inventory decreased by 446,000 tons, while India's increased by 108,000 tons, Brazil's decreased by 110,000 tons, and the US's decreased by 218,000 tons [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价维持强势 核心观点 沪铜 宝城期货投资咨询部 今日铜价偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，美国 7 月 CPI 低于预期，核心 CPI 略高于预期，降息预期升温，美元指数弱势运 行，利好铜价；中美贸易关系持续改善，国内市场氛围较好。内外 宏观向好，铜价或维持强势运行，关注 8 万关口压力。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡运行，持仓量持续上升。宏观层面，中美贸易改 善，美联储降息预期升温，内外宏观向好，利好铝价。产业层面，下 游淡季，中下游持续累库，利空铝价。宏观推动 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the mutual agreement between China and the U.S. to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, which is expected to stabilize bilateral trade and global supply chains [1][3] - The suspension of tariffs will effectively reduce operational costs for businesses, providing strong support for the recovery and growth of bilateral trade [3] - The stability of China-U.S. trade relations is crucial for the global supply chain, as both countries are major exporters and importers of intermediate goods [3] Group 2 - China's export resilience is highlighted, with a reported goods trade export value of 15.31 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.3% in the first seven months of the year [3] - China possesses a robust and complete industrial system, allowing for rapid adjustments in production to adapt to external changes [4] - The expansion of the domestic market, driven by rising income levels, continues to provide strong support for economic growth [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view of Gold 2510 is bearish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of weak consolidation, indicating a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations [1]. - The short - term view of Copper 2509 is bullish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of strong consolidation, suggesting a short - term bullish outlook as the domestic sentiment warms up and copper prices stabilize and rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, gold prices fluctuated. New York gold oscillated around $3400, London gold around $3350, and Shanghai gold around 777 yuan. This week, gold prices have been weak [3]. - **Core Logic**: The easing of Sino - US trade relations, as shown by the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on August 12, 2025, has led to a rise in market risk appetite and a decline in gold prices. Meanwhile, the under - expected US economy, lower - than - expected July CPI, and slightly higher - than - expected core CPI have increased the expectation of Fed rate cuts, with the market expecting three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points this year, which supports the gold price. Technically, gold is at the upper edge of the consolidation range since the second quarter, facing strong technical pressure [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, copper prices slightly oscillated upwards, with an increase in open interest. The main contract price broke through the 79,000 - yuan mark, and in the night session, it opened higher and moved higher, breaking through 79,400 yuan [4]. - **Core Logic**: The joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on August 12, 2025, has created a good macro environment at home and abroad, which is conducive to the rise of copper prices. During the industrial off - season, inventory has slightly increased, and the spread between September and October contracts has continued to weaken. With macro positives and industry being neutral to bearish, copper prices are expected to be strong driven by the macro environment, and the futures market may continue the pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, and weak near - term and strong long - term contracts [4].